Northwest Climate Science Digest: Science and Learning Opportunities Combined
April 2015 Issue
The Northwest Climate Science Digest is a monthly newsletter jointly produced by the
Northwest Climate Science Center and the North Pacific Landscape Conservation
Cooperative aimed at helping you stay informed about climate change science and upcoming
events and training opportunities relevant to your conservation work. Feel free to share this
information within your organization and networks, and please note the role the NW CSC
and NPLCC played in providing this service. Do you have a published article or upcoming
opportunity that you would like to share? Please send it our way to nwcsc@uw.edu. Many
thanks to those who have provided material for this edition, particularly the Pacific
Northwest Climate Impacts Research Consortium, the Climate Impacts Group and the
Environmental Protection Agency’s Climate Change and Water News.
Subscribe to the NW CSC’s e-mail update list to receive periodic updates on Northwest
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SCIENCE: Recent climate change-relevant publications, special reports and science
resources.
UPCOMING EVENTS: Upcoming climate change-relevant webinars, workshops,
conferences, list servers and other learning opportunities.
PREVIOUS ISSUES: An archive of previous Northwest Climate Change Digest issues
developed by Region 1 of U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.
Biodiversity/ Species and Ecosystem Response
Bull Trout and Climate Vulnerability
Influences of Climate Forcing on Freshwater and Forest Biota in the PNW
Coastal/Marine Ecosystems/ Ocean Acidification/ Sea Level Rise
On Thin Ice: Combined Arctic Ice Observations Show Decades of Loss
Naturally Acidic Water of Puget Sound Surround UW’s Friday Harbor Labs
Warming Oceans Storing Up Long Term Climate Impacts, says WMO
Aquatic Resource/ Stream Flow/ Hydrology in the Western U.S.
The Cold-Water Climate Shield: Preserving Salmonid Fishes through the 21st Century
Coastal Cutthroat Trout Ecohydrology and Habitat use in Irely Creek, Washington
Population Fluctuations of Coastal Cutthroat Trout in Irely Creek, Washington
Arid Ecosystems
Climate Change and Land Management in the Rangelands of Central Oregon
Forests
Tracking Tree Movement Along the West Coast
Scientists Warn Climate Change is Threatening World's Most Expansive Temperate
Rainforests
New Model to Simulate Climate-Change Impacts on Forest Succession for Local Land
Management
Fire
Lack of Snowpack Could Mean Early Central Oregon Fire Season
Accelerate Glacier Melt on Mt. Olympus due to Carbon and Dust from Wildfire
Tribal and Indigenous Peoples Matters
Swinomish Tribe Studies Effect of Climate Change on Community, Culture
Taking Action
Climate Change, Coastal Tribes and Indigenous Communities
Climate and Weather Reports and Services
What a Record-Low Snowpack Means for Summer in the Northwest
Artificial Amplification of Warming Trends Across Western Mountains
Climate Science: The Future of Coastal Ocean Upwelling
Near-term Acceleration in the Rate of Temperature Change
Projected Changes in Snowfall Extremes and Interannual Variability of Snowfall in the
Western US
Detection and Attribution of Climate Change Signal in Ocean Wind Waves
The West Coast is in Hot Water
Interactive Climate Map: Temperature, Precipitation, and Drought Outlooks
Special Reports/ Announcements
Feds Declare Drought Emergency in 13 Oregon Counties, Releasing Aid Money
Drought Emergency Declared in Parts of Washington State
Northwest Climate Science Center Announces Climate Boot Camp 2015
Northwest Climate Science Center Creates Online Climate Data Resources Library
Biodiversity/ Species and Ecosystem Response
Bull Trout and Climate Vulnerability: USGS aquatic ecologist, Jason Dunham, recently
completed the final report on a Northwest Climate Science Center- funded study to
determine how climate-related threats will influence bull trout across their southern range in
Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana, and Nevada. Dunham and his collaborators used
stream temperatures predictions to map coldwater “patches” suitable for bull trout spawning
and early rearing. Larger patches of cold water with extremely cold - below 10 degrees
Celsius - temperatures in summer, fewer floods in winter, and low human influence were
much more likely to support the species. This work identified dozens of places where bull
trout may exist, but have not yet been detected, as well as other places where bull trout may
be at high risk of local extinction. Future work will focus on completing analyses across the
remainder of the species’ range: https://nccwsc.usgs.gov/displayproject/4f8c64d2e4b0546c0c397b46/5006f464e4b0abf7ce733f90
Influences of Climate Forcing on Freshwater and Forest Biota in the PNW: Analyses
of how organisms are likely to respond to a changing climate have focused largely on the
direct effects of warming temperatures, though changes in other variables may also be
important, particularly the amount and timing of precipitation. Researchers developed a
network of 8 growth-increment width chronologies for freshwater mussel species in the
PNW, and integrated them with tree-ring data to evaluate how terrestrial and aquatic
indicators respond to hydroclimatic variability, including river discharge and precipitation.
Annual discharge averaged across water years was highly synchronous among river systems
and imparted a coherent pattern among mussel chronologies. The leading principal
component of the five longest mussel chronologies accounted for 47% of the dataset
variability and negatively correlated with the leading principal component of river discharge.
Mussel growth was also indirectly related to tree radial growth. Overall, this diverse
assemblage of chronologies illustrates the importance of winter precipitation to terrestrial
and freshwater ecosystems and suggests that a complexity of climate responses must be
considered when estimating the biological impacts of climate variability and change.
Black, B. A., Dunham, J. B., Blundon, B. W., Brim-Box, J. and Tepley, A. J. (2015), Longterm growth-increment chronologies reveal diverse influences of climate forcing on
freshwater and forest biota in the Pacific Northwest. Global Change Biology, 21: 594–604.
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12756
Coastal/Marine Ecosystems/ Ocean Acidification/ Sea Level Rise
On Thin Ice: Combined Arctic Ice Observations Show Decades of Loss: University of
Washington researchers compiled modern and historic measurements to get a full picture of
how Arctic sea ice thickness has changed. The results, published in The Cryosphere, show a
thinning in the central Arctic Ocean of 65 percent between 1975 and 2012. September ice
thickness, when the ice cover is at a minimum, is 85% thinner for the same 37-year stretch.
“The ice is thinning dramatically,” said lead author Ron Lindsay, a climatologist at the UW
Applied Physics Laboratory. “We knew the ice was thinning, but we now have additional
confirmation on how fast, and we can see that it’s not slowing down.” The study helps gauge
how much the climate has changed in recent decades, and helps better predict an Arctic
Ocean that may soon be ice-free for parts of the year:
http://www.washington.edu/news/2015/03/03/on-thin-ice-combined-arctic-iceobservations-show-decades-of-loss/
Lindsay, R., & Schweiger, A. 2015. Arctic sea ice thickness loss determined using subsurface,
aircraft, and satellite observations. The Cryosphere, doi: http://dx.doi.org/ 10.5194/tc-9-2692015
Naturally Acidic Water of Puget Sound Surround UW’s Friday Harbor Labs: A paper
published last month in Limnology and Oceanography tracks about two years of weekly pH data
in Puget Sound, collected since the UW established a facility there to study the effects of
ocean acidification. Researchers found typical values of dissolved carbon dioxide, or CO2, in
Puget Sound are more than 650 parts per million, higher than even the 400 parts per million
threshold that Earth’s atmosphere crossed last year for the first time in modern humans’
existence. In other words, Puget Sound’s water is already higher in the gas than our CO2choked atmosphere: http://www.washington.edu/news/2015/03/12/naturally-acidicwaters-of-puget-sound-surround-uws-friday-harbor-labs/
Murray, J. W., Roberts, E., Howard, E., O'Donnell, M., Bantam, C., Carrington, E., Foy, M.,
Paul, B. and Fay, A. (2015), An inland sea high nitrate-low chlorophyll (HNLC) region with
naturally high pCO2. Limnology and Oceanography. doi: http://dx.doi.org/
10.1002/lno.10062
Warming Oceans Storing Up Long Term Climate Impacts, says WMO: Rising ocean
temperatures are likely to have “major implications” for the development of climate change,
the World Meteorological Organization said. The majority of warming linked to soaring
levels of greenhouse gas emissions was being stored in the upper and lower levels of the
seas, it said in its annual Status of the Global Climate report for 2014. Sea-surface
temperatures were “much warmer than average” across the north Pacific, southwest Pacific,
Indian Ocean as well as the polar region of the North Atlantic. Last year was the hottest on
record, with global average temperatures 0.57 °C above the 1961-1990 average of 14 °C:
http://www.rtcc.org/2015/03/23/warming-oceans-storing-up-long-term-climate-impactssays-wmo/
Aquatic Resource/ Stream Flow/ Hydrology in the Western U.S.
The Cold-Water Climate Shield: Preserving Salmonid Fishes through the 21st
Century: Researchers from the Rocky Mountain Research Stations in Montana and Idaho
recently published a study in Global Change Biology titled: “The cold-water climate shield:
delineating refugia for preserving salmonid fishes through the 21st century.” Researchers
identified especially cold habitats capable of absorbing future climate change while still
supporting native populations, highlight important salmonid refugia in the western U.S.
Through coupling crowd-sourced biological datasets with high-resolution stream
temperature scenarios, researchers delineated network refugia across >250,000 stream km in
the Northern Rocky Mountains for two native salmonids—bull trout and cutthroat trout.
This approach creates a framework to integrate data contributed by many individuals and
resource agencies, and a process that strengthens the collaborative and social networks
needed to preserve many cold-water fish populations through the 21st century.
Press Release: http://www.fs.fed.us/rmrs/news/releases/content/?id=15-03-02
Isaak, D. J., Young, M. K., Nagel, D. E., Horan, D. L. and Groce, M. C. (2015), The coldwater climate shield: delineating refugia for preserving salmonid fishes through the 21st
century. Global Change Biology. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12879
Coastal Cutthroat Trout Ecohydrology and Habitat use in Irely Creek, Washington:
Coastal cutthroat trout are native in the Irely Creek watershed of the upper Quinault River
drainage, which is protected as Olympic National Park. This species coexists with
anadromous coho salmon, two resident fishes, and several amphibian species. During 20012002, cutthroat redds and fry were abundant in the main stem, such that researchers had
adequate data to formulate microhabitat suitability curves for spawners and assess the
incubation period before fry emergence. The results were similar to spawning resident trout
species. Those results suggest that cutthroat trout require lower stream flows than salmon or
steelhead for reproduction. To read more from the extended abstract visit:
http://docs.streamnetlibrary.org/CoastalCutthroatData/sn600361.pdf
Population Fluctuations of Coastal Cutthroat Trout in Irely Creek, Washington: In
the Irely Creek watershed (upper Quinault River drainage) within Olympic National Park,
coastal cutthroat coexists with anadromous coho salmon and two resident-fish and several
amphibian species. During 2001-2002, cutthroat redds and fry were abundant in the
mainstem, particularly in its middle segment, with escapement estimates being 48-106. More
recently, the population has declined by an order of magnitude, reflecting summer/fall
droughts that have often dried up adult habitat in Irely Lake. Although redd counts have
risen when summer/fall seasons have been wetter during 2003-2010, they haven’t reached
2001-2002 counts via regular lake dry-outs, including two consecutive dry-outs during 20022003. Hence, the population is showing an overall downward trend with some smaller-scale
oscillations coupled with escapement estimates during 2003-2010 ranging from 4 to 32:
https://afs.confex.com/afs/2011/webprogram/Paper5166.html
Arid Ecosystems
Climate Change and Land Management in the Rangelands of Central Oregon:
Climate change, along with exotic species, disturbances, and land use change, will likely have
major impacts on sagebrush steppe ecosystems in the western U.S. over the next century. To
effectively manage sagebrush steppe landscapes for long-term goals, managers need
information about the interacting impacts of climate change, disturbances and land
management on vegetation condition. Using a climate-informed state-and-transition model,
researchers evaluated the potential impacts of climate change on rangeland condition in
central Oregon and the effectiveness of multiple management strategies. Under three
scenarios of climate change, researchers projected shifts in potential vegetation types over
the 21st century, with declining sagebrush steppe and expanding salt desert shrub likely by
the end of the century. Overall, climate-related shifts dominated future vegetation patterns,
making management for improved rangeland condition more difficult. This approach allows
researchers and managers to examine long-term trends and uncertainty in rangeland
vegetation condition and test the effectiveness of alternative management actions under
projected climate change.
Creutzburg, M.K., Halofsky, J.E., Halofsky, J.S., Christopher, T.A. 2015. Climate change and
land management in the rangelands of central Oregon. Environmental Management, 55(1), 4355. doi: http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1007/s00267-014-0362-3
Forests
Tracking Tree Movement Along the West Coast: Researchers from the Pacific
Northwest Research Station and Oregon State University published a paper titled, “Evidence
of tree species' range shifts in a complex landscape.” They compared the distribution of
seedlings and mature trees for all but the rarest tree species in California, Oregon and
Washington, a large, environmentally diverse region. Across 46 species, the mean annual
temperature of the range of seedlings was 0.120°C colder than that of the range of trees. The
extremes of the seedling distributions also shifted towards colder temperature than those of
mature trees, but the change was less pronounced. Although the mean elevation and mean
latitude of the range of seedlings was higher than and north of those of the range of mature
trees, elevational and latitudinal shifts run in opposite directions for the majority of the
species, reflecting the lack of a direct biological relationship between species’ distributions
and those variables. The broad scale, environmental diversity and variety of disturbance
regimes and land uses of the study area, the large number and exhaustive sampling of tree
species, and the direct causal relationship between the temperature response and a warming
climate, provide strong evidence to attribute the observed shifts to climate change.
Monleon, V. J., & Lintz, H. E. (2015). Evidence of Tree Species’ Range Shifts in a Complex
Landscape. PLoS ONE, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0118069
Scientists Warn Climate Change is Threatening World's Most Expansive Temperate
Rainforests: Climate change poses significant threats to Pacific coastal rainforests of North
America. Land managers lack a coordinated climate change adaptation approach with which
to prepare the region's globally outstanding biodiversity for accelerating change. Researchers
from the Geos Institute provided analyses intended to inform coordinated adaptation for
eight focal rainforest tree species of commercial importance and broad rainforest
communities. By using two different approaches to determine vulnerability, including climate
envelope modeling and the MC1 dynamic vegetation model, researchers were able to assess
where Pacific coastal rainforests might be more stable over time. Based on model outputs,
focal rainforest conifers and general rainforest communities are more likely to persist and to
expand their ranges along northern range margins while southern margins exhibited lower
persistence and potential loss of suitable climate:
http://www.sitnews.us/0315News/030315/030315_climate_change.html
For a copy of the study abstract:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780124095489093672
New Model to Simulate Climate-Change Impacts on Forest Succession for Local
Land Management: Researchers developed a new climate-sensitive vegetation state-andtransition simulation model (CV-STSM) to simulate future vegetation at a fine spatial grain
commensurate with the scales of human land-use decisions, and under the joint influences of
changing climate, site productivity, and disturbance. Researchers conducted experimental
simulations in the Willamette Valley, Oregon. The simulation landscape incorporated
detailed new assessments of critically imperiled Oregon white oak savanna and prairie
habitats among the suite of existing and future vegetation types. The experimental design
fully crossed four future climate scenarios with three disturbance scenarios. Results indicate
that dynamic global vegetation models may overestimate future rates of vegetation change,
especially in the absence of stand-replacing disturbances. Modeling tools such as CV-STSM
that simulate rates and direction of vegetation change affected by interactions and feedbacks
between climate and land-use change can help policy makers, land managers, and society as a
whole develop effective plans to adapt to rapidly changing climate.
Gabriel I. Yospin, Scott D. Bridgham, Ronald P. Neilson, John P. Bolte, Dominique M.
Bachelet, Peter J. Gould, Constance A. Harrington, Jane A. Kertis, Cody Evers, and Bart R.
Johnson 2015. A new model to simulate climate-change impacts on forest succession for
local land management. Ecological Applications 25:226–242. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/130906.1
Fire
Lack of Snowpack Could Mean Early Central Oregon Fire Season: A warm winter
with light snowfall in the mountains near Bend means wildfire season could come early.
Timber fires do not typically occur in Central Oregon until August, said Ed Keith,
Deschutes County forester, but the lack of snow may lead to big blazes earlier. “This year it
may be June or July,” he said. The Deschutes/Crooked River Basin snowpack was only 9
percent of normal for this time of year, according to the Natural Resources Conservation
Service. Many of the automated snow sites monitored by the federal agency report no snow
for the first time in three decades of recording data. A year ago the basin had 54 percent of
the normal snowpack on March 20. “We are gaining some precipitation now, which will
help,” said Rachel Cobb, a Weather Service meteorologist in Pendleton, “but I don’t know if
it will be enough to make up for what we didn’t get over the winter.”
http://www.bendbulletin.com/localstate/2990255-151/lack-of-snowpack-could-mean-earlycentral-oregon
Accelerate Glacier Melt on Mt. Olympus due to Carbon and Dust from Wildfire:
Assessing the potential for black carbon and dust deposition to reduce albedo and accelerate
glacier melt is of interest in Washington because snow and glacier melt are an important
source of water resources, and glaciers are retreating. In August 2012 on Snow Dome Mt
Olympus, Washington, researchers measured snow surface spectral albedo and collected
surface snow samples and a 7 m ice core. The samples were microscopically analyzed for
iron, black carbon, and charcoal. Results show that black carbon and dust deposition was a
magnitude higher in 2011 than 2012, and identified the 2011 Big Hump forest fire on the
Olympic Peninsula as the source of the greatly elevated impurity deposition. The forest fire
impurity reduced albedo, increased the radiative forcing, and enhanced snowmelt.
Kaspari, S., Skiles, S.M., Delaney, I., Dixon, D., Painter, T.H. 2015. Accelerated glacier melt
on snow dome, Mt. Olympus, Washington, USA due to deposition of black carbon and
mineral dust from wildfire. Journal of Geophysical Research, doi:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022676
Tribal and Indigenous Peoples Matters
Swinomish Tribe Studies Effect of Climate Change on Community, Culture: Climate
change threatens not only the environment, but also tribal communities whose culture,
livelihood and identities depend on natural resources. “Current climate change assessments
omit key community health concerns, which are vital to successful adaptation plans,
particularly for indigenous communities,” said Jamie Donatuto, environmental health
specialist for the Swinomish Tribe. “Recent assessments show that indigenous communities,
especially coastal communities, are disproportionately vulnerable to a number of climate
impacts as reservation boundaries are fixed and many aspects of their culture are so closely
tied to coastal health” said Eric Grossman, coastal and marine geologist with the U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS) and partner in the project. Donatuto and Larry Campbell,
Swinomish elder and tribal historic preservation officer, developed a set of indigenous
indicators to evaluate aspects of community health that other assessments leave out. The
indicators prioritize self-determination, community connection, natural resources security,
and cultural use and practice: http://nwifc.org/2015/02/swinomish-tribe-studies-effect-ofclimate-change-on-community-culture/
Taking Action
Climate Change, Coastal Tribes and Indigenous Communities: Sea level rise,
associated with climate change, is threatening natural resources, communities and cultures
across the United States, its territories and freely associated states. Climate change will
impact many indigenous communities and may well endanger sacred and traditional living
sites, cultural practices, local forests and ecosystems, traditional foods and water quality. In
response, scientists are working with coastal communities throughout the nation to study the
impacts of climate change on the health and vitality of the social, economic and natural
systems of these communities. Earlier this month, U.S. Secretary of the Interior Sally Jewell
announced the Interior Department would make available $8 million to fund projects that
promote tribal climate change adaptation and ocean and coastal management planning
through its Tribal Climate Resilience Program. To further support coastal tribes and
indigenous peoples in addressing challenges of climate change, the Department of the
Interior is conducting research at its eight regionally located Climate Science Centers. The
mission of the DOI Climate Science Centers is to provide scientific information and tools to
policy makers and managers of parks, refuges and other cultural and natural areas,
concentrated on helping species, ecosystems and human communities adapt to climate
change: http://www.usgs.gov/blogs/features/usgs_top_story/climate-change-coastaltribes-and-indigenous-communities/
Climate and Weather Reports and Services
What a Record-Low Snowpack Means for Summer in the Northwest: Scott Pattee, a
water supply specialist with the Natural Resources Conservation Service, has been
monitoring snow levels in Washington for more than 20 years. The data he gathers helps
scientist study climate trends, farmers plan their growing seasons, hydropower operators
manage their reservoirs and municipalities provide water to citizens. This year is on track to
be one of the lowest snow years on record. Across Washington state, average snowpack is 71
percent below normal levels. In some places, including the Olympic Peninsula, snowpack is
90 percent below normal levels. Things are looking even worse in Oregon. Statewide,
average snowpack is 76 percent below normal levels. “One of our longest-monitored sites,
near Bend, has the lowest snowpack ever recorded, breaking the 1977 record,” said Julie
Koeberle, a hydrologist in Oregon with the Natural Resources Conservation Service. The
Bend site has been monitored since the early 1950s.“All eyes will be pointing on southern
and southeastern Oregon if things don’t improve,” Koeberle said. Some of the lowest snow
levels can be found in those areas, where water scarcity has created drought conditions in
recent years: http://www.opb.org/news/article/what-a-record-low-snowpack-means-forsummer-in-the-northwest/
Artificial Amplification of Warming Trends Across Western Mountains: Observations
from the main mountain climate station network in the western U.S. suggest that higher
elevations are warming faster than lower elevations. This has led to the assumption that
elevation-dependent warming is prevalent throughout the region with impacts to water
resources and ecosystem services. Researchers from the University of Montana critically
evaluated this network's temperature observations and show that extreme warming observed
at higher elevations is the result of systematic artifacts and not climatic conditions. With
artifacts removed, the network's 1991–2012 minimum temperature trend decreases from
+1.16°C decade−1 to +0.106°C decade−1 and is statistically indistinguishable from lower
elevation trends. In the context of a warming climate, this artificial amplification of
mountain climate trends has likely compromised our ability to accurately attribute climate
change impacts across the mountainous western U.S.
Oyler, J. W., S. Z. Dobrowski, A. P. Ballantyne, A. E. Klene, and S. W.
Running (2015). Artificial amplification of warming trends across the mountains of the
western United States, Geophysical Research Letters, 42, 153–161, doi:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062803.
Climate Science: The Future of Coastal Ocean Upwelling: Many climate models predict
that coastal upwelling will intensify in three of the most productive marine ecosystems of the
world. This result comes at a time when scientists are still debating the evidence supporting
an increase in coastal upwelling and its effects on coastal ecosystems and global carbon
cycling. Increased upwelling currents will strongly affect marine ecosystems at Eastern
Boundary Upwelling Systems, but the long-term future of coastal acidification, dead zones,
and primary productivity probably depends on the properties of the water that comes to the
surface: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v518/n7539/full/518310a.html
Near-term Acceleration in the Rate of Temperature Change: Anthropogenically driven
climate changes, which are expected to impact human and natural systems, are often
expressed in terms of global-mean temperature. The rate of climate change over multidecadal scales is also important, with faster rates of change resulting in less time for human
and natural systems to adapt. We find that present trends in greenhouse-gas and aerosol
emissions are now moving the Earth system into a regime in terms of multi-decadal rates of
change that are unprecedented for at least the past 1,000 years. The rate of global-mean
temperature increase in the CMIP5 archive over 40-year periods increases to 0.25 ± 0.05 °C
per decade by 2020, an average greater than peak rates of change during the previous one to
two millennia. Regional rates of change in Europe, North America and the Arctic are higher
than the global average. Research on the impacts of such near-term rates of change is
urgently needed.
Smith, S.J., Edmonds, J., Hartin, C.A., Mundra, A., Calvin, K. 2015. Near-term acceleration
in the rate of temperature change. Nature Climate Change, doi:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2552.
Projected Changes in Snowfall Extremes and Interannual Variability of Snowfall in
the Western US: Projected warming will have significant impacts on snowfall accumulation
and melt, with implications for water availability and management in snow-dominated
regions. Changes in snowfall extremes are confounded by projected increases in precipitation
extremes. Downscaled climate projections from 20 global climate models were biascorrected to montane Snowpack Telemetry stations across the western US to assess mid-21st
century changes in the mean and variability of annual snowfall water equivalent (SFE) and
extreme snowfall events. Declines in annual SFE and number of snowfall days were
projected for all stations. At climatologically cooler locations, such as in the Rocky
Mountains, changes in the magnitude of snowfall events mirrored changes in the distribution
of precipitation events, with increases in extremes and less change in warmer locations.
Common to both warmer and colder sites was a relative increase in the magnitude of
snowfall extremes compared to annual SFE and a larger fraction of annual SFE from
snowfall extremes.
Lute, A. C., J. T. Abatzoglou, and K. C. Hegewisch (2015), Projected changes in snowfall
extremes and interannual variability of snowfall in the western United States, Water Resour.
Res., 51, 960–972, doi:10.1002/2014WR016267.
Detection and Attribution of Climate Change Signal in Ocean Wind Waves:
Researchers recently published a study in the Journal of Climate, which analyzed how surface
waves in the ocean respond to variability and changes of climate. Observations and
modeling studies indicate trends in wave height over the past decades. Nevertheless, it is
currently impossible to discern whether these trends are the result of climate variability or
change. The output of an Earth system model (EC-EARTH) produced within phase 5 of the
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is used here to force a global Wave Model
(WAM) in order to study the response of waves to different climate regimes. Detectable
climate change signals were found in the current decade (2010–20) in the North Atlantic,
equatorial Pacific, and Southern Ocean. Until the year 2060, climate change signals are
detectable in 60% of the global ocean area. The authors show that climate change acts to
generate detectable trends in wind speed and significant wave height that exceed the positive
and the negative ranges of natural variability in different regions of the ocean. Moreover, in
more than 3% of the ocean area, the climate change signal is reversible such that trends
exceeded both positive and negative limits of natural variability at different points in time.
These changes are attributed to local (due to local wind) and remote (due to swell) factors.
Mikhail Dobrynin, Jens Murawski, Johanna Baehr, and Tatiana Ilyina. 2015. Detection and
Attribution of Climate Change Signal in Ocean Wind Waves. Journal of Climate, 28, 1578–
1591. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00664.1
The West Coast is in Hot Water: The warm water in the eastern Pacific over the past two
years is a harbinger of things to come for the region. Ocean temperatures have been rising
around the world and are expected to keep warming, and the eastern Pacific could see the
odd conditions of the past two years become commonplace by mid-century. Just how farreaching the impacts will be and which species will adapt and which will fail to is something
scientists are still trying to untangle. The causes for the current eastern Pacific warm
temperatures — what Washington state climatologist Nick Bond has coined "the blob" —
are not fully known, but are most likely natural. The blob has spread across an expanse of
water 1,000 miles across with above-normal water temperatures running from the surface to
as deep as 300 feet. While human-induced warming is heating seas around the world, Bond
said that’s not the main cause for this particular hot spot. “It’s mostly a fluke of climate
variability,” Bond said. “At least part of it can be linked to deep convection in the far
western tropical Pacific.” http://www.climatecentral.org/news/the-west-coast-is-in-hotwater-18813
Interactive Climate Map: Temperature, Precipitation, and Drought Outlooks: The
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) along with its academic and
international partners are making great strides in linking severe weather, winter storms,
droughts and floods, and hurricane events to climate variability such as El Niño and La
Niña, and other modes of natural climate variability. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC),
working with national and international partners, is at the forefront of turning this new
understanding into practical tools and useful products for predicting such events and their
impacts months to seasons in advance to reduce vulnerability and exploit opportunities for
beneficial impacts. Better predictions of extreme climate episodes like floods and droughts
could save the United States billions of dollars in damage costs. Water, energy and
transportation managers would be able to plan and avoid or mitigate these losses:
http://www.cpcpara.ncep.noaa.gov
Special Reports/Announcements
Feds Declare Drought Emergency in 13 Oregon Counties, Releasing Aid Money:
Oregon's worsening drought has triggered a federal disaster loan program in 13 Oregon
counties. The U.S Small Business Administration announced that low-interest loans meant
to offset economic losses associated with the drought are now available for small, non-farm
businesses in Grant, Jackson, Baker, Crook, Douglas, Harney, Josephine, Klamath, Malheur,
Morrow, Umatilla, Union and Wheeler counties, as well as California's Siskiyou County:
http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2015/03/feds_declare_drought_emerg
ency.html - incart_river
Drought Emergency Declared in Parts of Washington State: Gov. Jay Inslee declared a
drought emergency for three regions in Washington state, clearing the way for state officials
to provide money and other relief to those experiencing drought hardships. The emergency
was prompted by near record-low mountain snowpack, which supplies much of the water in
the region when it melts in drier summer months. Officials said the worst drought
conditions are in the Olympic Peninsula, the east side of the central Cascade Mountains
including Yakima and Wenatchee, and the Walla Walla region:
http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwestnews/index.ssf/2015/03/drought_emergency_declared_in.html
Northwest Climate Science Center Announces Climate Boot Camp 2015: The NW
CSC is pleased to announce its 2015 Climate Boot Camp, to be held in Pack Forest, WA,
Aug. 16-21. This annual retreat is designed to support and train graduate students and early
career professionals to work at the interface of scientific research on climate and resource
management decision-making. Participants included NW CSC Graduate Fellows, Graduate
Fellows from other CSCs, and early career professionals working with northwest Tribes,
NGOs, and state and federal resource management agencies:
https://www.nwclimatescience.org/sites/default/files/BootCampBrochure11.pdf
Northwest Climate Science Center Creates Online Climate Data Resources Library:
The Department of the Interior's Northwest Climate Science Center has compiled a
selection of web-based resources that deliver datasets, maps, and tools related to climate
change and climate change impacts in the northwestern United States. The portal also
includes links to species and ecosystem vulnerability assessments and climate adaptation
databases. This information is intended to support local, landscape, or regional planning and
adaptation efforts: http://www.doi.gov/csc/northwest/news/climate-data-resourceslibrary-available-from-nw-csc.cfm Access the Data Library.
UPCOMING EVENTS
Upcoming Webinars, Courses and Meetings
Apr 8, 10-11am (Pacific) - Webinar. NPLCC Science-Management Webinar: Berry
Risk Mapping & Modeling of Native & Exotic Defoliators in Alaska
Apr 9, 10-11am (Pacific) – Webinar, Indigenous Knowledge and Use of Ocean
Currents in the Bering Strait Region
Apr 10-11 - Conference, Vancouver, BC. Seventh International Conference on
Climate: Impacts and Responses
April 13, 10-1130am (Pacific) – Webinar, NOAA U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit
April 14 – Workshop, Juneau, AK. Using Beaver to Restore Streams
April 17 – Conference, Portland, OR. 7th Annual Northwest Environmental Health
Conference
April 18-21 – Conference, Seattle, WA. American Planning Association 2015 National
Planning Conference - Planning & Climate Change Symposium
Apr 20-22 – Workshop, Boise, ID. Spatial Statistical Stream Network Models training
workshop
Apr 21, 10-11am (Pacific) – Webinar. Where's My Fish? New Tools to Visualize
Climate and Other Impacts on Marine Animals
Apr 21-25 – Conference, Chicago, IL. Association of American Geographers' Annual
Meeting
Apr 28-30 – Training, Pocatello, ID. Institute for Tribal Environmental Professionals
- Climate Change Adaptation Planning
Apr 30, 10-11am (Pacific) – Webinar, Community-Based Sea Level Rise Projections
with Ian Miller of Washington Sea Grant
May 12-15 - Conference, St. Louis, MO. 2nd National Adaptation Forum
May 18-21 – Convention, Warm Springs, OR. The Affiliated Tribes of Northwest
Indians Mid Year Convention.
May 19-21 – Conference, Battle Creek, MI. National Tribal Forum on Air Quality
List Servers
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BioClimate News & Events from NCCWSC & the CSCs
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ClimateNews-- is a snapshot from British Columbia’s Ministry of Forests, Lands and
Natural Resource Operations, provides new and emerging climate change adaptation and
mitigation activities in the natural resource sector. Contact:
katharine.mccallion@gov.bc.ca
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Climate CIRCulator (Oregon Climate Change Research Institute)
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Climate Impacts Group (Univ. Washington)
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Earth to Sky Newsletter (NASA/DOI Partnership): anita.l.davis@nasa.gov
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EPA Climate Change and Water E-Newsletter
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FRESC monthly e-newsletter: Contact fresc_outreach@usgs.gov
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FWS CC Monthly E-Newsletter: Contact kate_freund@fws.gov
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LCC list servers (see your LCC’s website) and the national LCC Network newsletter
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Ocean Acidification Report
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OneNOAA Science Webinars
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NASA's Climate Change Newsletter climate-feedback@jpl.nasa.gov
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North Pacific LCC Listserve – North Pacific Tidings - important news and
announcements; and NPLCC Climate Science Digest - new science/information
affecting natural and cultural resources.
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NCTC Climate Change List server (upcoming webinars and courses): contact
christy_coghlan@fws.gov
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Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions (PICS) (British Columbia) Climate News Scan- a
weekly summary of the major climate-change related science, technology, and policy
advances of direct relevance to the BC provincial and the Canadian federal governments
and more generally to businesses and civil society
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PointBlue Weekly Ecology, Climate Change and Related e-Newsletter: Contact
ecohen@prbo.org
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PNW Tribal Climate Change Network: Contact kathy@uoregon.edu
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US Forest Service Fish & Wildlife Research Updates
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USGS Climate Matters
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White House Energy and Environment Updates