Chapter 1. Fundamentals of Coevolution Coevolution is the study of how species interactions evolve in response to the reciprocal selection pressures they exert on one another. It is this dynamic interplay between evolutionary change and selection which distinguishes coevolution from much of the rest of evolution. When selection is driven by an interacting species that is also evolving, the potential arises for the adaptive landscape to continuously change in a way that thwarts or facilitates adaptation (Figure 1). Although this unique feature of coevolution is what makes it exciting and fun, it is also what makes modeling coevolution so damn hard! As a general rule, any coevolutionary problem requires twice the number of parameters, variables, and equations as an equivalent single species model. Worse, coevolutionary models often generate strong non-linearities and produce complicated dynamics which can confound standard analytical approaches. So why even bother trying to model coevolution? The simple answer is that many fundamental problems in evolutionary biology and ecology cannot be understood without grappling with how interacting species evolve in response to one another. For instance, how can we even begin to understand the assembly of biological communities without understanding the reciprocal evolution that occurs between each new species and those species already present? How can biological invasions be predicted or managed without first understanding the reciprocal evolution which occurs between invaders and residents? How can the spread of a vector borne pathogen be predicted without understanding how vector and pathogen coevolve? Although these and many other problems are intrinsically coevolutionary, we have generally approached them using entirely non-coevolutionary frameworks and theories. Perhaps it should come as no surprise, then, that we so often fail to accurately predict the outcome of ecological and evolutionary processes where species interactions play an important role. The overarching goal of this book is to demonstrate the importance of a coevolutionary approach to ecology and evolutionary biology. Where this book will differ from other books on coevolution with similar goals is by focusing on how mathematical models can be used as a powerful tool for improving our understanding of the coevolutionary process. “The potential importance of a coevolutionary model does not follow from the addition of one more type of interaction or constraint, but from the extent to which it can reveal some essential feature of the interactions being modelled” Slatkin and JMS 1979, Although we are making strides and much powerful coevolutionary theory has been developed, we still lag so very far behind other fields of evolutionary biology where models are used on a daily basis and to sch wonderful effect. For instance, the use of MLE and Bayesian approaches to select the best underlying evolutionary model are standard practice within population genetics and phylogenetics but 1 are almost never used within coevolutionary biology. To begin catching up, we need to make coevolutionary models accessible to a broader audience. It is my hope that providing a straightforward introduction to the theory will allow more biologists interested in species interactions, or intrinsically coevolutionary problems, to better appreciate what coevolutionary models actually predict and why. Understanding coevolutionary models at this basic nuts and bolts level will facilitate the development of more precise, robust, and powerful empirical tests of coevolutionary hypotheses and theories. I also hope that by demystifying coevolutionary models, and mathematical models in general, this book will encourage biologists to embark on the development and analysis of coevolutionary models of their own. ROADMAP TO THE CHAPTER In the rest of this chapter, we will first explore the history of coevolutionary theory and use this historical context to identify and formalize the pre-requisites for coevolutionary change. Next, we will learn how these pre-requisites are generally integrated into mathematical models of coevolution. Here I will argue for a restricted view of coevolution as laid out by Keister… Finally, we will explore why coevolutionary models suggest that empirically detectable coevolutionary change should often be rare, even in cases where it is the most important force driving the evolution of interacting species. The chapter will conclude with a brief overview of the remainder of the book. The development of coevolutionary theory As with almost any major theme in evolutionary biology, the roots of coevolution can be traced back to Darwin. Although he did not formalize the idea of coevolution, Darwin clearly believed species interactions were prevalent, likely to impose significant natural selection, and important in driving coadaptation (Darwin 1859). Unlike many of the other themes Darwin discussed, however, coevolution was largely excluded from the rich mathematical and conceptual development of the Modern Synthesis, lying dormant until Flor’s discovery and description of gene-for-gene interactions between Flax and FlaxRust in the 1950’s (REFS). The discovery of relatively simple genetic interactions between host and pathogen genes stimulated coevolutionary research and led to the development and analysis of the first coevolutionary model (Mode 1958). In this model, Mode explored the process of coevolution using a population genetic model integrating the specific genetic basis of resistance identified by Flor’s studies of resistance in Linum marginale. Although Ehrlich and Raven (1964) popularized coevolution, the term and its definition were first formalized by Mode in this vastly underappreciated paper. Following Mode’s pioneering work, coevolutionary models of gene-for-gene interactions continued to appear (Mode 1961; Person 1966; Jayakar 1970). However, it was not until the 1970’s that the next major developments in coevolutionary occurred, spurred by increasing interest in understanding the conditions that allowed competing species to coexist (Macarthur and Levins 1967). During this time, several influential models appeared which took a new approach to coevolutionary theory. Rather than using the framework of population genetics, these models explored how coevolution of the parameters within Lotka-Volterra models of competition influenced coexistence (Lawlor and Smith 1976; Roughgarden 1976). Although these models increased ecological realism by 2 explicitly integrating demography and ecological interaction, they did so at the expense of evolutionary and genetic realism. Specifically, these models relied on analyses of evolutionary stable strategies (ESS) or similar types of analyses which allow only equilibrium states to be explored, and not the actual short term dynamics of coevolution (IS THIS TRUE)? The next big innovations in coevolutionary theory occurred in the 1980’s with the publication of three papers that moved coevolutionary theory into the mainstream of ecology and evolutionary biology. First, Hamilton’s (1980) paper exploring how coevolution between hosts and parasites could potentially drive the evolution of sexual reproduction launched a major them in coevolutionary biology which has, perhaps, generated more coevolutionary models than any other single idea. This paper studied a genetically explicit, multi-locus model, and showed that sexual reproduction could be favored by shuffling and randomizing the host genome. USHERED IN THE IDEA THAT WE COULD STUDY HOW COEVOLUTION INFLUENCES OTHER FEATURES OF BIOLOGY. Second, May and Anderson (1983) introduced genetic variation into epidemiological models to show that coevolution between hosts and parasites need not ultimately favor reduced virulence. As with the coevolutionary models of competitive interactions introduced in the 1970’s this model integrated coevolution by allowing it to change the parameters of an epidemiological model. Third, Kiester, Lande, and Schemske (1984) introduced a model of coevolution between plants and pollinators which utilized a classical quantitative genetic formulation. This model represented a new approach which, although not genetically explicit as were the classical population genetic models of Mode, allowed for more evolutionary robust analyses than the ecology focused coevolutionary models of the 1970’s. Thus, by the end of the 1980’s three different approaches were commonly used to model coevolution: 1) Population genetics, 2) ESS analyses of ecological models, and 3) Quantitative genetics. As a broad generalization, these three approaches remain the basic engines of coevolutionary theory although work in 1990’s and 2000’s developed powerful extensions and modifications. For instance, population genetics models now commonly allow for multiple loci and make use of powerful new analytical techniques involving moments based approaches and separation of timescales approximations (Otto and Nuismer 2004; Agrawal 2006; Nuismer et al. 2008; Agrawal 2009). ESS analyses have been largely replaced by adaptive dynamics approaches as the go to method for analyzing models with rich ecological detail (Dieckmann and Law 1996; Doebeli and Dieckmann 2000; Jones et al. 2009), and quantitative genetics models can now be analyzed by studying allele frequency changes at many underlying loci of small effect, blurring the distinction between quantitative and population genetics (Nuismer et al. 2005; Kopp and Gavrilets 2006; Nuismer et al. 2007). In addition to the technical improvements to the basic core approaches to coevolutionary models discussed above, the 1990’s and 2000’s saw a huge increase in the scope of coevolutionary models. For instance, coevolutionary models no longer focused on single isolated populations, but began to integrate multiple populations and the complexities of spatial structure (Gandon et al. 1996; Morand et al. 1996; Frank 1997; Gandon 1998; Gomulkiewicz et al. 2000; Sasaki et al. 2002; Thrall and Burdon 2002; Nuismer 2006). Much of this development was driven by the identification of strong patterns of local adaptation within host parasite interactions (Ebert 1994; Lively and Jokela 1996; Kaltz and Shykoff 1998) and also by John N. Thompson’s development and promotion of the Geographic 3 Mosaic Theory (Thompson 1994; Thompson 1997; Thompson 1999; Thompson 2005). Similarly, models began to explore the impact of coevolution on major evolutionary transitions beyond just sexual reproduction, including ploidy, mate choice, dispersal, and mutation rates (Nuismer and Otto 2004, 2005; M'Gonigle et al. 2009; M'Gonigle and Otto 2011). Even more recently, models have been developed that explore how coevolution influences the network structure of communities (Guimarães et al. 2011; Nuismer et al. 2013), the likelihood of biological invasions (Jones and Gomulkiewicz 2012), and the response of species to climate change (Northfield and Ives 2013). In short, coevolutionary theory is exploding. With this explosion has come an increasing realization that many major problems in evolution and ecology cannot adequately be addressed without considering the impact of coevolution. All of these technical innovations make this a particularly exciting time to be developing and analyzing coevolutionary models. Never before have such powerful analytical tools been so readily available to tackle such a diverse array of compelling problems. At the same time, however, the increased sophistication of coevolutionary models has made jumping into the field much more intimidating than when I first started developing coevolutionary models in the mid 1990’s. Long gone are the days when a single locus haploid model with two populations will get you a decent paper! Part of my motivation for writing this book is to make using these modern analytical tools less intimidating. For this reason, the structure of the book is hierarchical, with each chapter building on the material presented in the preceding chapter. The first chapters are quite basic and should be approachable with only a modest background in mathematics and evolutionary biology. Subsequent chapters introduce more sophisticated models and analytical techniques, but should be manageable once the material in preceding chapters has been mastered. In the remainder of this chapter, the core elements of coevolutionary models will be introduced, beginning with the basic pre-requisites that must be included within a model for it to be truly coevolutionary. Identifying the Pre-requisites for Coevolution Before we can begin building and analyzing coevolutionary models, we need to agree on what, exactly, coevolution is. Throughout this book, I will stick with the current consensus definition developed and popularized by Janzen (1980). In this seminal paper, Janzen argued that the term coevolution should be restricted to cases where “an evolutionary change in a trait of the individuals in one population in response to a trait of the individuals of the second population, followed by an evolutionary response by the second population to the change in the first.” In short, Janzen argued that coevolution requires reciprocal evolutionary change in the traits of interacting species (Figure 1). Although Janzen’s definition provides a great starting point, it doesn’t tell us much about what we would need to include in a model to make it truly coevolutionary. All it really tells is that our model must somehow produce reciprocal evolutionary change. In the rest of this section, we will work backward from the observation of reciprocal evolutionary change to the underlying prerequisites that make it possible. 4 To make things concrete, let’s imagine we are studying an interaction between an insect and the plant it pollinates. Perhaps we have reason to believe the outcome of this interaction is largely explained by the length of the pollinator’s proboscis, x, relative to the length of the plant’s corolla, y. Let’s now imagine that we measure the proboscis lengths of multiple insect individuals and the corolla depths of multiple plant individuals in generation t and again in generation t+1. With this information in hand, we can calculate the change in population mean proboscis length and corolla depth that occurs over a single generation: βπ₯Μ = π₯Μ π‘+1 − π₯Μ π‘ (1a) βπ¦Μ = π¦Μ π‘+1 − π¦Μ π‘ (1b) where π₯Μ and π¦Μ are the population mean proboscis lengths and corolla depths. If equations (1) are both significantly different from zero, and we can rule out other evolutionary forces (e.g., gene flow, random genetic drift), we can be relatively confident that selection has produced the observed changes in the mean phenotypes. In this case, an appropriate model for the changes in the mean phenotypes might be the classical breeder’s equation of quantitative genetics: βπ₯Μ = βπ₯2 ππ₯ (2a) βπ¦Μ = βπ¦2 ππ¦ (2b) where each species is now characterized by a heritability, β2 , and selection differential, S. Put differently, the fact that the mean phenotype of each species has been changed by selection implies that the traits of both interacting species must be heritable (β2 > 0) and under selection (π ≠ 0). With equations (2) we have managed to capture a significant chunk of Janzen’s definition. Specifically, we now have mathematical expressions for evolutionary change in the traits of interacting species. What our equations miss, however, is the most critical word in Janzen’s definition: reciprocal. The clearest and most biologically relevant way in which reciprocal evolution can be integrated into (2) is by assuming that the selection differential acting on each species depends on the frequency distribution of traits within the interacting species: βπ₯Μ = βπ₯2 ππ₯ (ππ¦ ) (3a) βπ¦Μ = βπ¦2 ππ¦ (ππ₯ ) (3b) where ππ₯ is the frequency distribution of trait x and ππ¦ is the frequency distribution of trait y (FIGURE 1). With equations (3) in hand, we have a very general mathematical formulation for reciprocal evolutionary change in interacting species driven by reciprocal selection. In addition to formalizing Janzen’s seminal definition, equations (3) illuminate two pre-requisites for coevolution: 5 Pre-requisite 1 — There must be additive genetic variation for the traits mediating an interspecific interaction Pre-requisite 2 — Selection acting on the traits mediating the interaction must depend upon the distribution of phenotypes within the interacting species In the following sections, we will explore how these pre-requisites are generally integrated into coevolutionary models of different types and evaluate the extent to which these pre-requisites are satisfied in natural populations. Integrating the Pre-requisites for Coevolution into Mathematical Models Earlier in the chapter we discussed an overview of coevolutionary models in a historical perspective. Our goal in this section is to get down to the nitty gritty of coevolutionary models and show how the pre-requisites for coevolution identified in the previous section provide a basic recipe for creating a coevolutionary model. Specifically, all coevolutionary models must include two fundamental ingredients: 1) a mechanism of inheritance and 2) a mechanism of reciprocal selection based on individual phenotypes. Although this can be accomplished in many ways, there are currently two basic approaches which I will call the “ecological school” and the “evolutionary school”. The ecological school builds on the historical work of Roughgarden, etc., etc. and explores how the parameters of ecological or epidemiological models evolve in response to reciprocal selection. This school is currently dominated by the ”adaptive dynamics approach” where… THE ECOLOGICAL SCHOOL OF COEVOLUTION. Adds evolution to ecological models of species interaction (roughgarden, adaptive dynamcis, slatkin, abrams, etc.). Focuses on ecological questions. Interactions between traits are often indirect. Separation of timescales. This approach was developed by XX and XX and now blends into the school of adaptive dynamics with little substantive change. vs. THE EVOLUTIONARY SCHOOL OF COEVOLUTION. Adds species interactions to evolutionary models (Mode, Jayakar, Hamilton, Seger, kiester). Focuses on evolutionary questions. Interactions between traits or genes are direct. This book will focus on the latter but will broaden its scope by addressing truly ecological questions such as the structure and function of communities… 6 The bulk of coevolutionary theory which meets these criteria can be rather crudely lumped into studies which employ either a quantitative genetic or population genetic approach. In the sections below, we will explore how the pre-requisites for coevolution are generally integrated into these two different modeling frameworks. Quantitative Genetics Models developed within the framework of quantitative genetics assume that a continuously variable trait (or suite of traits) within one species interacts functionally with a continuously variable trait (or suite of traits) within another species. Reciprocal selection is often integrated into such models using an interaction function which predicts the outcome of encounters between individuals as a function of their phenotypes. For instance, whether a Cheetah captures and consumes an Impala could depend on running speed in both Cheetah and Impala such that the probability of capture, P, could be described by the function: 1 π = 1+πΈπ₯π[π₯−π¦] (4) where x is the maximum running speed of the Cheetah and y the maximum running speed of the Impala (Figure 2). Since we can safely assume being captured by a cheetah is detrimental to Impala fitness but beneficial to cheetah fitness, we can easily incorporate the interaction function P into expressions describing the fitness consequences of an encounter between Cheetah and Impala: ππ = 1 + ππ π(π₯, π¦) (5a) ππ = 1 − ππ π(π₯, π¦) (5b) where the coefficients ππ and ππ measure how much capturing an Impala improves Cheetah fitness and how much being captured by a Cheetah reduces Impala fitness, respectively. Biologically, fitness equations (5) capture the idea that an encounter between a slow Impala and a fast Cheetah is likely to improve Cheetah fitness at the expense of Impala fitness whereas encounters between a slow Cheetah and a speedy Impala is unlikely to improve Cheetah fitness or reduce Impala fitness. With equations (5) in hand, classical quantitative genetics tools can be used to calculate the strength of selection acting on each of the interacting species (see Chapter 4 for details). As long as selection on each of the species depends on the phenotype distribution within the interacting species, selection is reciprocal. In contrast to the detailed mechanistic integration of reciprocal selection, inheritance is included within quantitative genetic models of coevolution only implicitly, and represented only by a fixed parameter summarizing the amount of additive genetic variance available to fuel a response to reciprocal selection (see Chapter 4 for details). Consequently, the second pre-requisite for coevolution — additive genetic variation for the traits mediating the interaction — is automatically satisfied within such models. Assuming additive genetic variance is fixed can be justified over relatively short 7 evolutionary timescales by assuming traits are controlled by a very large number of genes such that the strength of selection acting on any single gene is quite weak. Under such conditions, mutation can — in principle — replenish additive genetic variation at a rate equivalent to the rate at which it is depleted by natural selection (REFS). Of course, we know that additive genetic variance is not always constant, but can instead evolve quite rapidly under some circumstances (REFS). In such cases, more complex models which allow additive genetic variance to evolve become more appropriate. In these more complex models, the potential for coevolution can wax and wane as the amount of additive genetic variation for the traits mediating the interaction fluctuates over time (Nuismer et al. 2005; Kopp and Gavrilets 2006). Population Genetics Models based within the framework of population genetics assume that a discrete trait (or group of traits) within one species interacts functionally with a discrete trait (or group of traits) within another species. Often, the traits in such models are implicit with the focus instead on the direct interaction between a gene (or collection of genes) within one species and a gene (or collection of genes) within another. Reciprocal selection is often integrated into such models using an interaction matrix which predicts the outcome of encounters between individual genotypes. For instance, whether a rust fungus successfully infects a potential host plant (outcome) could depend on the particular variant of a surface protein elicitor on the rust (genotype) and the particular variant of a recognition molecule in the plant (genotype) such that the probability of infection, α, is described by a matrix: Plant recognition genotype bb Bb BB AA 0.85 0.82 0.84 Rust Aa 0.82 0.25 0.27 elicitor genotype aa 0.79 0.22 0.26 where each entry represents the probability that an encounter between a plant genotype and rust genotype leads to infection of the host. When an encounter between a rust (X) and plant (Y) leads to infection, it seems reasonable to assume the fitness of the rust is increased by some amount ππ while the fitness of the plant is decreased by some amount ππ . Generally, these assumptions lead to the formulation of expressions for the fitness of individuals of the two species when an encounter occurs between a rust of genotype i and plant of genotype j: ππ,π = 1 + ππ πΌπ,π (8a) ππ,π = 1 − ππ πΌπ,π (8b) where the value of πΌπ,π is given by the matrix entry for the appropriate combination of plant and rust genotypes. Biologically, fitness equations (8) capture the idea that an encounter between a rust and host which eludes detection by the host immune system is likely to improve rust fitness at the expense of plant fitness whereas an encounter between a rust and host which elicits a host immune defense is unlikely to improve rust fitness or reduce host fitness. From this point, standard expressions drawn from 8 population genetics can be used to evaluate the strength of selection acting on each species (See Chapter 3 for details). In contrast to quantitative genetics, models employing a population genetic approach explicitly model inheritance and thus allow the influence of genetic details, such as rates of segregation and recombination to be studied (See chapters 5 and 6 for details). Of course, all of this genetic richness comes at a high mathematical price. For even a single pair of coevolving diploid species whose interaction is mediated by just two diallelic loci, a full mathematical description of the coevolutionary process requires NINE equations for each species! Largely for this reason, we have a wealth of single locus models and strong bias toward haploid organisms. Fortunately, coevolutionary models are now beginning to move beyond these very simple genetic scenarios by employing moment based approaches and separation of time scales approximations which allow more complex multi-locus models to be studied (Otto and Nuismer 2004; Agrawal 2006). These approaches will be introduced in Chapters X and X and used to study how and when coevolution can drive the evolution of sexual reproduction. In summary, all coevolutionary models include mechanisms of reciprocal selection and inheritance. Although the details and subtleties of inheritance and the mechanistic basis of interaction differ widely among models, all are united by a single essential feature: an interspecific interaction between the heritable phenotypes of individuals capable of generating reciprocal selection on the interacting organisms. The sporadic nature of reciprocal selection and coevolutionary change Before we begin to develop formal mathematical models of coevolution, it is crucial to address one very common misconception: the frequency with which coevolution generates sustained, empirically detectable, reciprocal evolutionary change. As we saw in the previous section, all coevolutionary models include mechanisms that can generate reciprocal selection and can allow for the inheritance of traits mediating the interaction. What we did not see, however, is that these models generate sustained reciprocal evolutionary change —coevolution using Janzen’s strict definition — in only a subset of populations and at particular periods of time. Instead, your average, garden variety coevolutionary model might generate empirically detectable reciprocal selection or reciprocal evolutionary change only sporadically, in perhaps 25-75% of populations or “field seasons”, or might produce little or no reciprocal evolutionary change for hundreds of generations before unleashing a torrent of extremely rapid coevolutionary change (Figure 3). Although it is premature to delve into the nuanced reasons coevolutionary change can be so sporadic (since we have yet to analyze even a single coevolutionary model!) the basic reasons are that: 1) the strength of reciprocal selection waxes and wanes as the phenotype/genotype distributions of the interacting species continually adjust and readjust to one another over evolutionary time, and 2) additive genetic variance underlying traits mediating interactions can fluctuate significantly over time in response to reciprocal selection. Thus, as Thompson has long argued (Thompson 1994; Thompson 2005, 2013), it is naïve to expect coevolution to be ongoing and strong enough to be detectable in all populations and all times. 9 This fundamental result has important consequences for the design and interpretation of studies investigating coevolution within natural populations, and will emerge time and time again throughout the models we study in this book. OK, NOW, INSTEAD, DISCUSS THE STRUCTURE OF THE BOOK. In chapters 1-3 we will explore the basic structure of coevolutionary models… Here we will see that reciprocal selection and coevolution fluctuate. In chapters 3-6 we will build on these models to explore how coevolution proceeds when we have multiple loci and dominance. Here, the central results will appear by showing that coevolutionary models only sometims generates selection for major life history shifts. In 6-9 we will explore spatial structure and local adaptation. Here again, it will become apparent that coevolution only crops up occasionally. Finally in chapters 7-9 we will explore communities and macroevolution. Here too, we will see that even when the potential for coevolution always exists, it may be rapid, sustained, and empirically detectable for only some species within the community, at some points in time, or for some types of communities… Although the focus of each chapter will be placed more on the conclusions and predictions unique to each model, it is important to keep this general theme in mind and repeatedly ask yourself: what do the predictions of this model mean for our ability to detect sustained coevolutionary change within natural populations? Outline… Where am I going? What will happen in this book. 10 References: Figure Legends: Figure 1. A schematic representation of reciprocal evolutionary change (coevolution) between a parasitic cuckoo and its host. The left hand column of graphs shows the frequency distribution of egg coloration within the host population over time and the right hand column the frequency distribution of egg coloration within the cuckoo population over time. Initially, most individuals within host and cuckoo populations lay dark colored eggs. Under these circumstances, the eggs of most cuckoos are wellmatched to those of their host bird allowing the cuckoo eggs to avoid ejection by most host birds. Only those host birds which lay lighter colored eggs are able to recognize the differently colored eggs of the cuckoo and eject them. This generates selection within the host population (dashed line) for lighter colored eggs. In response, egg coloration within the host population begins to lighten, and hosts become better able to recognize and eject cuckoo eggs. In turn, this favors those few cuckoos that lay light colored eggs, generating selection within the cuckoo population for lighter colored eggs. In response, lighter colored eggs evolve within the cuckoo population. But alas, this evolutionary change within the cuckoo population generates selection within the host population for darker egg coloration and the cycle begins again. Figure 2. An interaction function, P, which predicts the probability that a cheetah with sprint speed x can capture an Impala with sprint speed y. Figure 3. Temporal change in genotype frequencies (left hand panels) and selection (right hand panels) for a coevolutionary interaction between a host (solid lines) and parasite (dashed lines). The top two panels show genotype frequencies and selection over a period of 1000 years. The bottom two panels show genotype frequencies and selection over a shorter, 100 year period of coevolutionary stasis. These coevolutionary simulations assumed interactions were mediated by a single haploid, diallelic, locus within each species and that only encounters between individual with “like” genotypes resulted in infection. 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