Monitoring & Evaluation Guidebook 2010
INVASIVE SPECIES
7. What are the status and trends of areas infested by aquatic and terrestrial invasive
species relative to the desired condition?
8. How effective were our management activities, including those done through
partnerships, in preventing or controlling targeted invasive species?
Goals and Objectives:
Management goals are to 1) maintain ecosystems capable of supporting the full range
of native and desired non-native species and ecological processes, and 2) maintain a
mix of representative habitats at different spatial and temporal scales. The management
objective is to reduce, minimize, or eliminate the potential for introduction,
establishment, spread and impacts of invasive species on the Tongass National Forest.
To answer monitoring question #7 according to these goals and objectives, three
invasive plant monitoring protocols will be implemented: 1) Forest-wide monitoring, 2)
road system monitoring, and 3) developed site monitoring. To answer the monitoring
question #8, three protocols will be implemented: 1) implementation of project/permit
mitigation, 2) implementation of public education/outreach and partnerships, and 3)
invasive plant treatment site monitoring.
Sampling / Reporting Period:
Mitigation and education/partnerships: Annual / Annual.
Forest-wide, road system, developed sites, and treatment sites: Five-year / Five-year
Evaluation Criteria:
Forest-wide - The frequency of occurrence of each high-priority1 invasive plant species
is limited to current amounts for five years.
Road system - The frequency of occurrence of each high-priority invasive plant species
on all NFS roads is limited to current amounts for five years.
Developed sites - The frequency of occurrence of each high-priority invasive plant
species on all NFS developed sites is limited to current amounts for five years.
Mitigation - All mitigation items from project invasive species risk assessments are
incorporated into environmental assessments/impact statements, decisions, and
permits, and are implemented as scheduled.
Education/partnerships - All public education/outreach and partnership action items in
invasive species plans (Forest Action Plan, District Weed Plans, Wilderness Plans, and
Communication Plans) are implemented as scheduled.
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As defined in the Tongass NF Invasive Plant Management Plan.
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Monitoring & Evaluation Guidebook 2010
Treatment sites - The infested area, percent canopy cover, and density of high-priority
invasive plants are reduced by 20% in five years.
Precision and Reliability:
Forest-wide - Precision is moderate due to the selected minimum detectable change,
statistical power, and false-change error rate. Reliability is moderate because the Forest
Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots in which invasive species data are collected (P3) are
currently on a lower intensity grid than regular (P2) plots.
Road system - Precision is moderate due to the selected minimum detectable change,
statistical power, and false-change error rate, and because the reduced number of
samples needed to detect unidirectional change reduces precision somewhat. Reliability
is moderate because sample units are temporary, which may increase variability among
sampling intervals.
Developed sites - Precision is moderate due to the selected minimum detectable
change, statistical power, and false-change error rate, and because the reduced
number of samples needed to detect unidirectional change reduces precision. Reliability
is moderate because variability among developed sites may be high.
Mitigation - Precision is high because all projects will be monitored. Reliability is high
due to the binary (yes/no) nature of the data.
Education/partnerships - Precision is high because all projects will be monitored.
Reliability is high due to the binary (yes/no) nature of the data.
Treatment sites - Precision is moderate because all monitored sites will be measured,
but the total number of monitored sites may be low. Reliability is moderate because
variability among treatment sites may be high.
Data Sources:
Forest-wide - Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) P3 plot data.
Road system - Field sampling.
Developed sites - Field sampling.
Mitigation - Forest Plan standards and guidelines, FSM 2080 R10 TNF Supplement
2000-2007-1, TNF Equipment Washing Guidance (2010), project invasive species risk
assessments, environmental assessments/environmental impact statements, decision
notices/records of decision, project contracts/permits, FACTS database, Tongass NF
Invasive Plant Management Plan (2005).
Education/partnerships - District and Wilderness weed plans, Non-Native Invasive Plant
Species Communication Plan (2008).
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Monitoring & Evaluation Guidebook 2010
Treatment sites - Field sampling, FACTS database.
Data Collection:
Forest-wide – The sampling objective is to detect an increase of 20% in the frequency
of occurrence of invasive plants, by species and in aggregate, with a confidence level of
80 percent and a false-change error rate (alpha level) of 0.20. This sampling objective
will be evaluated during pilot sampling, and modifications to minimum detectable
change, statistical power, and false-change error rate will be made if necessary to
achieve sampling objectives within current and projected FIA sampling constraints.
The sample universe includes all plots on the FIA sampling grid within the administrative
boundaries of the Forest in which invasive species data are collected (currently P3).
Each FIA plot contains a cluster of four permanently monumented circular subplots,
each with 7.3 m radius and is located on the systematic national FIA 4.8 km grid. Ten
percent of all P3 plots will be monitored every five years on a staggered schedule (due
to 5-year FIA remeasurement cycle). Sampling follows FIA protocols, and the attribute
to be measured is presence/absence of invasive plants by species.
Road system – The sampling objective is to detect an increase of 20% in the frequency
of occurrence of invasive plants, by species and in aggregate, with a confidence level of
80 percent and a false-change error rate (alpha level) of 0.20. The sampling objective
will be evaluated during pilot sampling, and modifications to the above parameters will
be made if necessary to achieve sampling objectives within current and projected
budget and personnel constraints.
The sample universe includes all National Forest System roads, stratified by ranger
district (i.e. proportional to total length of roads in a district) and by maintenance level.
All newly constructed roads over 3 years old will be added to the sample universe at the
beginning of each five-year sampling cycle and will be included in the analysis at the
end of that cycle. Temporary, rectangular quadrat plots with dimensions of 15 x 50 m
will be randomly established on the road bed, with the long axis of the plot centered on
and following the road centerline. The quantity of sample plots will be determined by
pilot sampling. The sample size must be sufficient to achieve desired minimum
detectable change, statistical power, and false-change error rate. The attribute to be
measured is presence/absence of invasive plants by species..
Developed sites - The sampling objective is to detect an increase of 20% in the
frequency of occurrence, percent canopy cover, or density of invasive plants, by species
and in aggregate, with a confidence level of 80 percent and a false-change error rate
(alpha level) of 0.20. The sampling objective will be evaluated during pilot sampling, and
modifications to the above parameters will be made if necessary to achieve sampling
objectives within current and projected budget and personnel constraints.
The sample universe includes all developed sites on the Forest, stratified by type
(administrative sites, recreation sites, mines, log transfer facilities, trailheads, special
uses sites, and rock pits). Ten percent of developed sites will be selected randomly,
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Monitoring & Evaluation Guidebook 2010
stratified by type, and five temporary plots will be randomly established within each site.
Plots are 50 m2 square (7.07 m x 7.07 m) quadrats. The number of developed sites
selected and number of plots per site will be evaluated after pilot sampling and modified
if necessary to meet sampling objectives. The attribute to be measured is
presence/absence of invasive plants by species.
Mitigation - All completed project environmental assessments/impact statements,
decision notices/records of decision, and project contracts/permits will be reviewed to
determine if they are in compliance with Forest Plan standards and guidelines and other
supplements for invasive plants, and completed projects will be reviewed to determine if
invasive plant mitigation action items were implemented as scheduled.
Education/partnerships - Forest, district, and wilderness weed plans and communication
plans will be reviewed annually to determine if public education/outreach and
partnership action items were implemented as scheduled.
Treatment monitoring – The sampling objective is to detect a decrease of 20% in the
frequency of occurrence, percent canopy cover, or density of invasive plants, by species
and in aggregate, with a confidence level of 80 percent and a false-change error rate
(alpha level) of 0.20. The sampling objective will be evaluated during pilot sampling, and
modifications to the above parameters will be made if necessary to achieve sampling
objectives within current and projected budget and personnel constraints.
The sample universe includes all invasive species treatment sites on the Forest. Fifty
percent of sites treated within a given calendar year will be randomly selected. The
centroid of each sampled treatment site will be permanently marked by a tagged metal
stake, with a GPS point location and triangulated bearings to the marker. Attributes to
be measured include presence/absence, infested area, percent canopy cover, and
density of individuals for all invasive plants by species. For very large sites,
subsampling may be necessary for a precise estimate of canopy cover or density. Field
personnel will be trained to correctly identify invasive plant species, calibrate field
measurements, and mark and relocate treatment sites.
Results:
Forest-wide: If an increase in the frequency of occurrence of high-priority invasive plant
species is detected, by species or in aggregate, within the five-year reporting period, the
Forest Leadership Team will review the invasive plant management strategy and
develop alternative management actions to reduce or limit the occurrence of invasive
plants Forest-wide, followed by initiation of those actions.
Road system: If an increase in the frequency of occurrence of high priority invasive
plant species is detected, by species or in aggregate, within the five-year reporting
period, the Forest Leadership Team will review the invasive plant management strategy
and develop alternative management actions to reduce or limit the occurrence of
invasive plants on NFS roads, followed by initiation of those actions.
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Monitoring & Evaluation Guidebook 2010
Developed sites: If an increase in the frequency of occurrence of high-priority invasive
plant species, by species or in aggregate, is detected within the five-year reporting
period, the Forest Leadership Team will review the invasive plant management strategy
and develop alternative management actions to reduce or limit the occurrence of
invasive plants on developed sites, followed by initiation of those actions.
Mitigation - If mitigation actions have not been incorporated into project documents or
implemented as scheduled, then management action will be initiated to correct the
deficiency. If nonimplementation incidents occur in more than 10 percent of projects
within a calendar year, the Forest Leadership Team will conduct an analysis of invasive
plant mitigation procedures and develop alternative management actions to reduce
nonimplementation, followed by initiation of those actions.
Education/partnerships - If public education/partnership action items have not been
implemented as scheduled, then management action will be initiated to correct the
deficiency.If nonimplementation incidents occur in more than 10 percent of the actions
scheduled within each plan within a calendar year, the Forest Leadership Team will
conduct an analysis of invasive plant education/partnership plans and develop
alternative management actions to reduce nonimplementation, followed by initiation of
those actions.
Treatment sites: If a decrease in infested area, percent canopy cover, or density of high
priority invasive plants, by species or in aggregate, is not detected on treated sites
within their five-year reporting period, the Forest Leadership Team will review the
invasive plant management strategy and develop alternative management actions to
reduce the occurrence of invasive plants on treatment sites, followed by initiation of
those actions.
Analysis:
Forest-wide - McNemar’s test will be used to test the null hypothesis of no change in
frequency of occurrence of invasive plants.
Road system - A chi-square test will be used to test the null hypothesis of no change in
frequency of occurrence of invasive plants.
Developed sites - A chi-square test will be used to test the null hypothesis of no change
in frequency of occurrence of invasive plants.
Mitigation - The implementation of mitigation actions will be monitored by the project
botanist and/or team leader until project completion. The number of implemented and
nonimplemented mitigation actions will summarized annually by project and in
aggregate.
Education/partnerships - The implementation of public education/partnership action
items in Forest and district weed plans will summarized.
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Monitoring & Evaluation Guidebook 2010
Treatment sites - A paired sample, one-tailed t-test will be applied to test the null
hypothesis of no change in infested area, percent canopy cover, or density of invasive
plants.
Feedback Mechanism:
Sample objectives, sample size, and analysis parameters will be modified as necessary
after pilot sampling. Forest Plan Standards and Guidelines and/or Forest and district
plans for management of rare/sensitive plants will be evaluated and modified, if needed.
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