DFID Scoring Scale used in this report
Description
Outputs substantially exceeded expectation
Outputs moderately exceeded expectation
Outputs met expectation
Scale
A++
A+
A
GoT
HBS
LFS
MDA
MoF
ML
NADA
NBS
NMS
NPS
NSS
OCGS
POPSM
TSMP
UN
USAID
USDA
WB
Zbr
Outputs moderately did not meet expectation
Outputs substantially did not meet expectation
Acronyms and Abbreviations
AfDB
AWP
BoT
DFATD
DFID
DFIDT
EC
FAO
GIS
African Development Bank
Annual Work Plan
Bank of Tanzania
B
C
Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development - Canada
Department for International Development (UK)
DFID Tanzania
European Commission
Food and Agriculture Organisation
Geographic Information Services
Government of Tanzania
Houseold Budget Survey
Labour Force Survey
(Government) Ministries, Departments and Agencies
Ministry of Finance
Mainland
National Data Archive
National Bureau of Statistics (Mainland)
National Master Sample
National Panel Survey
National Statistical System
Office of the Chief Government Statistician (Zanzibar)
President’s Office for Public Service Management
Tanzania Statistical Master Plan
United Nations
United States Agency for International Development
United States Department of Agriculture
World Bank
Zanzibar
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Introduction and Context
What support is the UK providing?
The UK is providing £7 million over five years to support the strengthening of the National
Statistical System in Tanzania (mainland and Zanzibar). This funding is delivered through a basket fund, together with support from the World Bank (WB) and the Canadian Department of
Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development (DFATD), and contributes towards a package of developments set out in the Tanzania Statistical Master Plan 2010 (TSMP).
The UK supports finance data collection including national surveys essential for monitoring social and economic progress in Tanzania. It also supports the reform of key institutions and finances training of staff to strengthen the National Statistical System (NSS) as a whole.
These activities will in turn lead to improvements in the quality, quantity, and accessibility of essential statistical data.
What are the expected results?
The anticipated outcome is a strengthened National Statistical System in Tanzania, producing quality statistics for decision makers in an objective, timely and cost effective manner. This will in turn improve all monitoring and evaluating of development programmes in Tanzania, leading to more effective interventions by DFID, the Government of Tanzania and other partners.
Outputs will include the collection of more data through household and business surveys, improvements in the quality of a range of official statistics, and more effective dissemination
(e.g. via improved websites). An enabling step will be changes to the legal status and organisational structure of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in mainland Tanzania and the Office of the Chief Government Statistician (OCGS) in Zanzibar and the implementation of new pay and HR policies. These changes will be delivered hand in hand with staff training and improved working conditions for the staff in these institutions and in the wider National
Statistical System, and strengthened IT systems. This overall package of interventions will allow improvements in data production to be sustainable and further improve data quality.
What is the context in which UK support is provided?
Demand for more and higher quality official statistics has been growing in Tanzania. This increased demand is attributable to the focus on managing for results and the monitoring and evaluation frameworks, civil society awareness of data as a means of transparency and accountability, the increasing share of private sector investment and demand for statistical products such as Geographical Information Services (GIS) and high-frequency and subnational data. There is a need for a responsive, demand-driven National Statistical System
(NSS) that is able to deliver the data needed to support effective policy and decision making at all levels.
The NSS of Tanzania is decentralized with Government Ministries, Departments and Agencies
(MDAs) collecting, processing, storing and disseminating data. The main actors in the statistical system are the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Office of the Chief
Government Statistician (OCGS) in Zanzibar. The NBS and OCGS are primarily responsible for compiling national accounts and price statistics and conducting large scale householdbased and establishment-based surveys, including the decennial population census..
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The current NSS in Tanzania is inadequately structured and equipped to meet the increasing demands from data users. The constraints of NBS, OCGS and other official data producers include: (i) limited technical ability, (ii) scarce human and financial resources, (iii) dilapidated physical infrastructure, (iv) lack of coordination within the NSS and (v) deficient dissemination mechanisms. Factors contributing to this situation include limited autonomy for statistics producers. Furthermore, staff incentives are not conducive to the production of quality products. The current incentive structure tends to favor data collection activities in the field rather than utilizing administrative data systems and producing and disseminating quality analytical products.
Previous statistical development initiatives have been patchy, uncoordinated and partly driven by availability of external resources. The use of a basket fund for statistical capacity is in line with best practice identified in the Busan Action Plan for Statistics.
TSMP have secured financial support from the World Bank and DFATD (through the newly established TSMP Basket Fund), and the EC and UN (who will channel funds directly to specific identified outputs – namely household surveys). The total cost of Programme is USD
64 million (approx. £40 million) DFID will contribute £7 million to the programme. £6.6m will be provided as a contribution towards the TSMP Basket Fund and £0.4m is allocated in the form of flexible technical assistance, to be used to fulfil the objectives of the TSMP, as agreed between the lead adviser and NBS.
Section A: Detailed Output Scoring
Approach to scoring outputs
The log frame used to monitor progress on this programme’s outputs was produced in 2011.
The log frame was developed jointly by the Government of Tanzania (TSMP management unit in NBS), the World Bank, DFATD and DFID. Each organisation has different reporting requirements and uses different formats of log frame or results framework to monitor progress.
The World Bank report annually on progress towards the targets that the programme aims to achieve by its end date. DFID report progress against annual milestones identified at the beginning of the programme. The GoT also adopted this annual milestone approach.
Furthermore, DFID and the GoT have a lengthy set of indicators whereas the World Bank uses a more discrete subset of these indicators.
The support to TSMP is broad as it covers a range of statistical products and areas of institutional strengthening and reform. One of the aspirations of such a programme is that it would encourage Government Ministries (beyond NBS) to strengthen their statistics and provide financial support to do so. Therefore at the programme’s inception a range of priority statistical products were identified as areas to support and annual milestones were set accordingly.
However, over the course of the programme, priorities can change and new opportunities arise.
DFID’s approach to such a programme is to amend annual milestones as required whilst retaining the levels of aspiration for expected results over the lifetime of the programme.
However, it has not been possible to amend annual milestones in this programme because GoT and World Bank’s approach to monitoring is that milestones are not amended, other than at the mid-term review point. The mid-term review of this programme will be conducted in early 2014 and will provide the opportunity to review and amend the monitoring framework.
Given the constraint of being unable to amend the log frame milestones, this report will cover progress against the log frame milestones and progress against the TSMP 2012/13 annual work plan. This work plan is agreed by the TSMP basket funders. Indicators that refer to the workplan are listed as AWP indicators in blue in the report.
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Key to results tables: Log frame indicators
Box colour indicates progress
Output 1: Institutional Development and Legal Reform
AWP Indicators
Text colour indicates progress
Output 1 score and performance description:
A: Outputs met expectation
Progress on legal reforms has been extremely positive. Such reforms are known to be unpredictable in their time frame yet the Government has shown a strong commitment to approving the new Statistics Bill.
Progress against expected results:
Output indicator
1.1 Milestones in development of legal framework for the NSS with clear roles, responsibilities, reporting lines and functions.
Milestone 2013
1.1 NBS Statistics Bill presented to Parliament
1.2 Milestones of institutional reform process in Mainland and Zanzibar
AWP: Zanzibar - Regulations based on 2007 Statistics Act of
Zanzibar in place
AWP: Tanzania Statistical
Association is revived and operational
Progress Against expected results
Achieved – see below for details
Good Progress
Statistics Regulations for Zanzibar has been produced and submitted to OCGS management.
The Regulation is yet to be submitted to the responsible ministry for approval
Achieved – see below for details
Statistics Bill
In Tanzania Mainland, the draft Statistics Bill passed through the relevant approval procedures and the Cabinet Paper on the enactment of the new Statistics Act was approved by the cabinet in March 2013 (ahead of the milestone of June 2013). The Statistics Bill the first reading to read to the National Assembly was held on the 28 th June 2013. This marks significant progress in the area of institutional reform.
The National Bureau of Statistics held a public consultation on the bill which was attended by a range of stake holders including the TSMP partners (World Bank and DFID), Government
Ministries and representatives from non-Government organisations. There was a general view that the Statistics Bill would mark a significant step in improving the quality and independence of official statistics in Tanzania.
The World Bank and DFID raised concerns about some recent additions to the bill which potentially criminalised the misuse of statistics and the publication of misleading statistics. The new clauses were added due to problems experienced in the 2012 Census. During the
Census preparations, disputed figures on religion were highlighted in the media and these
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renewed the debate about whether or not the Census should include a question on religion.
This led to certain groups encouraging people not to participate in the Census, thus hindering this important data collection exercise. We understand that these sub-clauses were added to counter similar situations occurring in future.
The World Bank and DFID raised concerns that the clauses may be extremely difficult to implement, the clauses may present an actual and potential risk to open and free debate and the clauses may represent a risk to the independence of the NBS.
Having considered feedback from stakeholders, a revised Statistics Bill will be presented to the National Assembly for a second reading in December 2013. This reading of the Bill marks an important milestone for the programme. It is an indication that it is highly likely that the Bill will be passed and therefore the World Bank will provide approval for NBS and OCGS to move ahead with construction work for new offices (output 5).
Zanzibar Regulations
In Zanzibar, OCGS completed the development of Statistics Regulations based on Statistics act No. 9 of 2007. Enforcement of the Act with the guidelines from the developed regulations gives OCGS strength in coordinating and managing official statistics production as an autonomous institution. This will bring about transparency in government’s development program implementation and reliability of statistics produced within NSS.
Tanzania Statistical Association (TASTA)
NBS commissioned a consultant to provide a report outline the steps required to revive the
TASTA. This was completed in December 2012 and a new draft TASTA Constitution in place.
The TASTA is now moving to be fully operational. The further actions required such as the full registration of statisticians is beyond the scope of NBS’s work but TASTA has been empowered to move forward with this, through the support of the TSMP basket fund.
Recommendations:
1. DFID continue to follow the progress of the Statistics Bill through Parliament, tracking any amendments to the Bill and the potential implications of such amendments.
2. DFID discuss the progress on Zanzibar regulations with OCGS to identify the best course of action to reach full approval of the regulations as soon as possible.
3. Keep a watching brief that TASTA progresses.
Impact Weighting = 15%
Revised since last Annual Review? NO
Risk: Medium
Revised since last Annual Review? YES
Progress on legal reforms can be unpredictable and can face unexpected delays. Thus this output was classed as high risk. However, indications are very positive that this output will be achieved and therefore the risk rating has been reduced from high to medium .
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Output 2: Human Resources Development
Output 2 score and performance description:
B: Outputs moderately did not meet expectation
Progress in the area of human resource development has been slow. The formalisation of training plans based upon Ministry priorities (in particular NBS and OCGS) is a new way of working. Despite a slow start, training activities started to take place regularly in the latter half of the year. This indicates that improved results over 2013/14 are highly likely.
Progress against expected results:
Output indicator
2.1 Milestones in HR reform process in Mainland and
Zanzibar on track
2.2 Annual staff training plan implemented
AWP: Needs Assessment for
Statisticians in the MDAs and
Regional Secretariats -
Tanzania Mainland
Milestone 2013
Salary Structure and Policy Manual in place; and Performance Appraisal
System designed for use by OCGS
At least 70% of planned training from
2012/13 training plan implemented.
2.3.1 The ideal number of statisticians required in the MDAs and the professional relationship with the NBS determined;
2.3.2 The Competency Framework developed highlighting the core competencies required at the level of the organisation, business level and role competencies which can be translated to
Key Performance Indicators (KPI) per person
Progress Against expected results
Progress is slower than expected.
Ground work for preparing a draft
Salary Structure, Salary Policy and
Performance Appraisal System has been completed. Procurement for a consultant to assist in this work is underway.
T anzania Mainland
59 staff from National Statistical
System have been trained in the areas of Statistics, Leadership and
Management and ICT. Six of the planned fifteen courses were run.
This represents 68% of the targeted
87 participants.
Zanzibar
Of the 15 planned training events, 5 have been conducted, 3 are in progress (i.e. delayed) and 7 have not been conducted. This represents 9 staff receiving training, only 15% of the targeted 59 participants.
This output will be delivered in
2013/14
The consultant to assist in delivery has been commissioned. This represents a delay against expectations. However, it was never time critical that this was delivered in
2012/13 as full implementation will only occur when the new Statistics
Bill has been passed.
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Training
The training plan was only partially implemented due to the delayed of approval of the Training
Plan (Jan 2013). Implementation commenced in February, 2013. Training that was not conducted during the financial year 2012/13, has been forwarded to 2013/14.
Recommendations:
None
Impact Weighting = 15%
Revised since last Annual Review? NO
Risk: High
Revised since last Annual Review? NO
Output 3: Development of Statistical Infrastructure
Output 3 score and performance description:
A: Outputs met expectation
The on-going development of statistical infrastructure has been impressive. These developments form the foundations of quality surveys, administrative data and increase the user friendliness of statistical outputs. These areas can be neglected under traditional forms of donor support to statistics which tend to focus on the activities of data collection, processing, analysis and publication.
Progress against expected results:
Output indicator
3.1 Revisions to Business
Register by NBS and OCGS
3.2a Enumeration Areas
(EAs) boundary shapes file development and use
3.2b National Geographical
Information System database development and use
Milestone 2013
3.1.1a ML large firms
3.1.1b Zanzibar comprehensive update
AWP: Updated Central
Register of Establishments and produce business register report (Zanzibar)
3.2.1 Used for enumeration of
2012 population and housing census
3.2.2 Automated EA map production done latest by end of July 2012.
3.2.3 NBS bring GIS users and producers together to chart way forwards for NSDI.
Progress Against expected results
Achieved
Achieved
Achieved
Achieved
Achieved
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AWP: GIS Unit in Zanzibar is operational and first GIS products disseminated (maps which show socio-economic features such as health centres, schools, roads etc.)
Progressing
Spatial data collection for three regions out of five have been completed
Consultancy and equipment yet to be procured
3.4 Improved statistical concepts, definitions and methodologies
AWP: Establishing a system of quality assurance within the
NSS (United Republic of
Tanzania)
AWP: Development of National
Master Sample (based on 2012
Census)
Balance of Payment statistics compiled according to BPM6
AWP: Harmonised national classifications for statistical production being used across
NSS (time frame not stated)
Quality Assurance System
Report in place
NMS is complete and ready for use for survey sample design.
Not yet achieved.
Plans are in place to achieve this target in 2014.
Progressing
Preparation of Compendiums of Statistical
Classification for Tanzania Mainland and
Zanzibar are progressing. Drafts are in place. This represents good progress towards the target.
Almost Achieved
This activity is expected to be completed by end of December 2013
Good Progress
Delay in NMS but 2012 Census used for sample design of all recent surveys
Business Registers
Statistical Business Register report for Tanzania Mainland is in place and contains updated information on the country’s large firms. Hard copies are found at NBS’s Library and a summary report is in NBS’s website.
In Zanzibar the register of establishments is now in place. It represents a comprehensive update of establishments. The relevant Business Register reports have been produced.
Geographic Information Systems (GIS) Development
The Enumeration Area (EA) maps were fully digitised in advance of census enumeration and the enumeration area boundary shapes were used for the enumeration of the 2012 Population and Housing Census which was conducted as scheduled. In addition, the boundary shapes for the region and district levels were made publicly available in June 2013.
NBS and OCGS are in the process of transforming the EA boundaries into GIS shape files and aim to release ward shape files by December 2013, and village and EA shape files by June
2014.
A National Spatial Data Infrastructure National Steering Committee (NSDI -NSC)has been formed. This committee governs the NSDI and includes representatives from the NBS, OCGS, the University of Dar es Salaam, TanRoads and a range of Government Ministries (incl.
Education, Health, Water, Finance, PMO RALG).
The NSC has produced a draft copy of a policy statement which sets out the roles and responsibilities of each member agency. Plans are to finalise the strategy by February 2014.
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Quality Assurance System
NBS and OCGS are close to finalising the documentation for a quality assessment framework for all statistical outputs. The view of the consultant was that NBS is performing much of the necessary review and authorisation processes but are not documenting their actions. Statistics
Canada provided support and advice at the start of this work, and they will again provide advice on the implementation of the framework, through their relationship with NBS, currently funded by the Canadian government.
National Master Sample (NMS)
The construction of a National Master Sample from the 2012 census data is extremely important in order for household s urveys to be representative of the country’s population.
Despite this not being completed in 2012/13, alternative measures have been put in place in the design of the sample for the Labour Force Survey (LFS). Therefore the LFS has used the
2012 census data in its sample design. The sampling design for other surveys designed or conducted in 2012/13 and 2013/14 is unaffected by this issue as the National Panel Survey uses a panel of respondents identified in Phase 1 and the agricultural survey draws its sample using a geo special sampling of agricultural plots (as opposed to household sampling).
A consultant has been hired to assist in the production of the NMS and the work is due for completion by the end of June 2014.
Recommendations :
4. Explore the formats available for releasing GIS shape files. Some users lacking certain
GIS software were not able to use the shape files so there may be alternative formats that could be used in order to enable wider accessibility of the files.
Researchers using GIS mapping data for developing countries often use www.opendata.org
as a source for shape files. The website currently lists 2002 Tanzanian shape files. It would be useful to explore whether the 2012 files can be uploaded on this site.
Impact Weighting = 20%
Revised since last Annual Review? NO
Risk: Medium
Revised since last Annual Review? NO
Output 4: Data development and Dissemination
Output 4 score and performance description:
A: Outputs met expectation
Over 2012/13 NBS and OCGS conducted surveys as per their survey implementation calendar. Furthermore processing of the Household Budget Survey data and design of forthcoming surveys (including agriculture and labour force) progressed well. Data sharing amongst ministries has been maintained and the increase of TSMP funding projects across a
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range of Government Ministries is a demonstration of the use of TSMP to strengthen links across the National Statistical System.
Progress against expected results:
Output indicator
Implementation of census and surveys specified in the
Inter-censal Survey
Calendars
Number of MDAs providing improved data to NBS /
OCGS due to support provided through TSMP to develop their statistical systems (based on coherent plans)
Milestone 2013
At least 75% of calendar implemented in 2012/13


Census
NPS 2012/13
 Industrial Census (Zbr)
 CWIQ (it was agreed to drop this survey due to its overlap with NPS)
"Data received by NBS from all previous plus health and/or education
Data received by OCGS from
Vital Registration and the
Police
Progress Against expected results
Achieved
Achieved
Progress in implementing recommendations from 2004
ROSC
Number of data sets uploaded to the National Data
Archive (NADA)
30 implemented
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Survey Implementation Calendar
Progress unknown
Achieved – Verification required in the
Mid Term Review
Originally four surveys were listed for enumeration in 2012/13 (Census, National Panel Survey
(wave 3), Zanzibar Industrial Census and the Core Welfare Indicators Questionnaire (CWIQ).
It was agreed in advance of the 2012/13 annual work plan that the CWIQ would not be conducted as the survey was low priority and the key indicators would be measured in the
Household Budget Survey 2011/12 and the National Panel Survey 2013. Excluding the CWIQ,
100% of surveys were conducted. If we were to include the CWIQ then implementation stands at 75%.
Surveys conducted as planned:

The census enumeration was carried out as planned and a post-enumeration survey followed some 7 months later.

The National Panel Survey enumeration was completed as per the implementation calendar.

The Industrial Census (Zanzibar) was conducted as scheduled.
In addition, the Household Budget Survey data field work was finalised as planned and processing and analysis was conducted in 2012/13. This was conducted to timetable leading to poverty figures published in November 2013.
An important area of work that has progressed over 2012/13 but is not reflected in the log frame is the development of agricultural statistics. In 2011/12, a series of reviews identified
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major weaknesses in the area of agricultural statistics. Given that agriculture accounts for a large proportion of Tanzania’s economy and given the Government’s commitment to improving agricultural outcomes, this is an area of high priority for the NSS. Tanzania is one of the seven countries in Africa in the pilot of the FAO Global Strategy to Improve Agriculture and Rural
Statistics. There has been a significant amount of work conducted by NBS, OCGS, and the
Ministries of Agriculture and Livestock. This has been supported by USAID, US Department of
Agriculture (USDA), FAO and African Development Bank (AfDB). The Government has been working to produce a strategy (with the support of FAO) which outlines how the range of agriculture data tools will complement one another. In the absence of a completed strategy,
NBS has worked with USDA in the design of an annual agriculture survey which when operational will provide robust data on yields.
Data provided by MDAs to NBS and OCGS
Tanzania Mainland
– Data has been received from Ministry of Agriculture, Police, PMO RALG,
Health, Education, Natural Resources, Trade and Industry and Communication and Transport.
It is important that data is provided to NBS so that it can be quality assured and receive the
“official statistics stamp”. The MDAs will then go on to publish the data, an example being the annual publication of crime statistics by the Department of Justice. The process of providing data to NBS has also been effective in identifying areas for statistical capacity building. These areas where development is required can be funded under the TSMP basket. An example is the strengthening of police administrative statistics through the design and implementation of a nationwide electronic database of crime statistics.
This data is used in a number of outputs including the Annual Statistical Abstract which presents the most up to date statistics across sectors and in the compilation of National
Accounts.
In Zanzibar, Data Registration Manuals are still under development.
Reports on the Observation of Standards and Codes (ROSC)
Awaiting report of progress in the area.
National Data Archive (NADA)
NBS appear to have uploaded two datasets on the NADA In 2012/13, (the Agriculture Survey
2007/08 and the National Panel Survey
– wave 2). However in their reporting they report to have uploaded 7 datasets. It appears that five of these are either survey reports or survey metadata and that the micro data is not available to the public for download.
The uploading of two datasets still constitutes a success and the uploading of the other material shows that NBS is actively using the NADA as a dissemination portal. The portal also reveals that since the two datasets were uploaded, there have been over 1,000 downloads of these micro data sets.
This is an important measure of dissemination and use. The Mid Term Review should clear up any discrepancies between references to micro data and survey reports (this may also include the baseline measure). It should also consider whether the number of user downloads and citations are useful measures at the outcome level.
Recommendations:
1. The Mid Term Review should explore how to fully capture data development in the programme’s log frame. There are a range of areas (including agricultural statistics and
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national accounts which are not included).
2. Progress on the ROSC should be explored in the Mid Term Review and the appropriateness of its inclusion in the log frame considered.
3. Improve tracking of NADA updates and users accessing NADA. Consider log frame revisions including a use indicator at the outcome level.
Impact Weighting = 35%
Revised since last Annual Review? No
Risk: Low
Revised since last Annual Review? No
Output 5: Physical infrastructure and equipment
Output 5 score and performance description:
A: Outputs met expectation
This output was assessed as slow progress last year. However, in the past year both NBS and
OCGS have made good progress in preparing for the building work. Slow procurement processes were identified as a weakness in the last annual review. With technical support on procurement from the World Bank, these procurement processes have improved markedly.
Progress against expected results:
Output indicator Milestone 2012
Construction of new NBS and
OCGS buildings
Once legal reforms have been approved by cabinet, plans for the building can be set and begin implementation
Progress Against expected results
Good Progress
Procurement of Information
Communications Technology
(ICT) and vehicles to capacitate the NSS.
Implementation of priorities from ICT NA as per AWP.
AWP: Restructure the Local
Area Networks (LAN)within NBS and OCGS.
Establish WAN (Wide Area
Network) system across NSS institutions.
AWP: Four motor vehicles and
24 motor cycles procured
Good Progress
Partly achieved
Four cars procured but the motor cycle procurement hasn’t gone ahead yet.
Construction of new buildings
Legal reforms are progressing well (see output 1) and therefore initial activities towards
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building construction have begun. There have been some minor setbacks but essentially this work is on track.
As a result of a tender price for the design of the new NBS building well over the original estimate, the design work has had to be re-tendered using the procurement procedure appropriate to a contract of that size. TORs for the tender are in preparation.
For Zanzibar, though the initial price for the design work was also high, this has been negotiated down significantly, and a contract is soon to be agreed for the design work to start.
Although the site for the building had changed from the one originally proposed, it was confirmed that the Environmental Assessment had been conducted on the changed site.
Restructuring of Local Area Network (LAN) and Wide Area Network (WAN)
The ambition stated in the 2012/13 Annual Work Plan was not feasible for this sizeable task.
The progress made to date has been a little slow but represents reasonable progress towards the target for LAN and WAN which should be achievable by end of 2013/14.
Consultant for restructuring LAN/WAN was procured in 2012/13 and the Inception Report for designing LAN and WAN was submitted to NBS by June 2013. The next phase the work is to procure the necessary equipment and a contractor to install the system by June 2014.
Motor Vehicles
The procurement of the four motor vehicles has been successful. However, the procurement of Motor Cycles for OCGS and Sector Working Groups was not processed due to lack of approval from the PMO a condition necessary required to proceed with procurement processes. This delay in procurement has not had any detrimental effect on survey work as
OCGS were able to use cars instead of motor cycles.
Recommendations:
1. LAN/WAN: As we move to the procurement stage there is a need for adequately following up with the preparation of the bidding documents particularly the technical specifications. The World Bank will lead on quality assuring this.
Impact Weighting = 15%
Revised since last Annual Review? NO
Risk: Low
Revised since last Annual Review? NO
Section B: Results and Value for Money.
1. Progress and results
1.1 Has the log frame been updated since last review ? NO
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See page 3 which outlines some of the constraints with the existing log frame. All partners have agreed that a thorough review and potential amendment of the log frame is a key output of the forthcoming Mid Term Review.
1.2 Overall Output Score and Description:
A: Outputs met expectation
1.3 Direct feedback from beneficiaries
The beneficiaries of this project are the users of statistics. NBS will conduct a user satisfaction survey in January 2014. This will assess levels of user satisfaction and will be used by the
Mid-Term Review to assess any changes in levels of user satisfaction since the 2011 User
Satisfaction Survey.
1.4 Summary of overall progress
2012/13 was the second year of implementation for the National Statistical Strengthening
Project. The project is complex and multi-faceted. Performance varied across the outputs.
Despite delays, there has been progress in all five output areas. Where progress has been lacking, this has usually been due to a slow speed of progress as opposed to no progress.
This is partly due to some of the timeframes for outputs being highly ambitious. Though there is also scope for improved planning in order to deliver results to timeframe.
There is an enthusiasm and willingness to progress on the project by the key partners NBS and OCGS. The partners are eager to publish data and strive to improve data quality and meet international standards. This openness suggests that the project can go on to meet its objectives over the coming years though these objectives remain ambitious.
1.5
Key challenges
Capacity to absorb TSMP Basket Funds
The capacity of NBS and the broader NSS to absorb the funds available is a key concern to the programme. Closer scrutiny needs to be given to the budgets that are tied to the annual work plans. The plans need to be assessed as to how realistic they are. They also need to be clear about which year(s) the funding will be required for sub-projects. In order improve the absorption rate, the programme should explore whether there are statistics capacity building priority needs that are not receiving funding under the TSMP. There may be new areas arising in response to the Government’s commitment to the Open Data Initiative. Given the low absorption rate, DFID needs to consider the implications on its budget planning.
Complexity of programme
The programme contains a wide variety of different outputs. This cannot be avoided as it is necessary to have a holistic approach to statistics capacity building. However, it presents challenges in fully understanding the progress and constraints. Since large areas of work are represented by single indicators it can be difficult to understand whether things are truly on track. Due to this complexity it is vital that a thorough mid-term review is conducted.
Planning
A lack of planning has led to a number of the outputs to be off-track. NBS are clearly taking planning more seriously as demonstrated by their good performance in adhering to the data
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release calendar. However, it is common for deadlines to slip and a lack of accountability can lead to outputs being delayed.
It is also apparent that levels of ambition are not always realistic. This can lead to underperformance and a lack of clear prioritisation. NBS still face pressure from a range of stakeholders to say “yes” to delivering additional work. This needs to be carefully managed as it is not always possible to satisfy all stakeholder demands.
Technical Capacity
There are technical constraints both in NBS and OCGS. The training plans will go some way to address this, having identified key areas of technical expertise where capacity is weak.
However, due to the highly specialised nature of a lot of statistics work, the institutions will continue to rely on external consultants. It is important that this external assistance is identified early on in order to procure the right consultants. It is also important that NBS and OCGS take ownership of the external work, seek to understand it fully and make it their own. This is relevant for both technical statistics work and also on legal and institutional reform.
1.6 Annual Outcome Assessment
At this review stage it is not possible to assess outcome progress because data is not available for the following three indicators:

Outcome indicator 1
– Satisfaction index from User Satisfaction Survey

Outcome indicator 2 - Proportion of Ministries Departments and Agencies (MDA) with
‘well established statistical units’

Outcome indicator 3 - Number of MDAs using the National Spatial Data Infrastructure
(NSDI)
This will be captured at the mid-term review stage due to be conducted in January 2014
Data is available for outcome indicator 4
– The proportion of planned publications as per the release calendar, which were produced and made publicly available on time . In
2012/13 for the mainland, 58% of publications released on time (ML) and 42% publications released with delay (ML). This is well below the target of 75% timely release. In Zanzibar, only
15% of products were produced as per release calendar. The level of ambition in the release calendar was not realistic for Zanzibar.
The will is there to release data which is a very positive sign but there is a lack of progress on last year’s result (61% published on time). Zanzibar’s very low publication rate is a serious issue which needs to be addressed. At the time of this report, the information available on the types of publications that were delayed, the length of the delay and the cause for delay was not available. This issue needs to be investigated in greater depth at the Mid Term Review and the causes of these delays needs to be addressed.
Anecdotal information suggests that there are achievements at the outcome level. The quality of products is good and NBS has demonstrated that it wants the publications to be user friendly to encourage increased and better use. This was evidenced in the approach to publishing poverty estimate results from the Household Budget Survey.
There is a risk that despite adequate delivery at the output level, that over the time frame of the programme, the outcomes may not be fully delivered. This risk should be explored further
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at the Mid-Term Review.
2. Costs and timescale
2.1 Is the project on-track against financial forecasts: NO
The spending pattern of the project is:-
DFID profile spending
UK
Financial
Year
Budget
(GBP)
Disbursed
(GBP)
2011/12 1,000,000.00 1,102,559.54
2012/13 1,000,000.00 1,061,908.97
2013/14 2,000,000.00 1,033,643.30
2014/15 1,600,000.00
2015/16 1,000,000.00
6,600,000.00 3,198,111.81
To date DFID has disbursed 48% of the total planned funds for the five year period and we are approaching the mid-term of the programme.
Whilst DFID’s spending profile is currently ontrack against financial forecasts, the programme as a whole is behind its spending forecasts.
Reporting expenditure figures of September 2013 reveal that only 28% of the funds have been received (from all supporting agencies) and that actual expenditure is only 16% of the total budget (see table below).
Donor
DFID
IDA
DFATD
Budget allocations
(USD)
10,000,000.00
30,000,000.00
4,900,000.00
Disbursed
(USD)
4,702,355.28
6,664,756.00
1,008,571.87
Expenditure to
September 2013
(USD)
2,640,750.08
3,578,606.11
877,843.03
44,900,000.00 12,375,683.15 7,097,199.22
It should be also noted that of the total allocated funds, $10 million (22%) is set aside for building two offices on the mainland and in Zanzibar. To date no funds have been spent against building work. When the construction starts, expenditure will increase. However, even accounting for the lack of building expenditure to date, other expenditure is below forecast for the programme as a whole.
2.2 Key cost drivers
The key cost drivers are:-
1. Number of surveys
2. Reform of organisations
3. Improving organisation infrastructures ( building of two offices)
2.3 Is the project on-track against original timescale: NO
Based on the spending pattern which has been illustrated in section 2.1 the project will not
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meet the objectives relating to infrastructure development within the specified period. In retrospect, the timeframes for this aspect of the programme were extremely ambitious. The programme of institutional reform, which hinges on the passing of the statistics bill is on track.
The regular publication of results from key surveys is also on track.
The mid-term review which will be conducted early next year will provide an in depth analysis of the status of the programme and will consider realistic time frames for the programme.
It is anticipated that the programme will require a no cost extension.
3. Evidence and Evaluation
3.1 Assess any changes in evidence and implications for the project
The approach of using a basket fund is seen as international best practice in supporting statistical capacity building. However, Tanzania is only one of a few countries that have adopted this approach.
Evidence to date has shown that there is improved harmonisation amongst donors, both within the basket fund and beyond. This is evidenced by the regular donor meetings hosted by the
World Bank as lead donor. In addition, the Joint Technical Steering Committee is a forum that brings together a range of Government and donor partners to discuss priorities and progress against the Tanzania Statistical Master Plan.
The TSMP basket fund has proved to be a flexible instrument that has been able to support areas of statistical development that are Government priorities but that may traditionally receive less donor attention. Examples include the rebasing of the National Accounts and the support to improved police administrative statistics.
3.2 Where an evaluation is planned what progress has been made?
DFID Tanzania has identified a discreet set of programmes which will have high quality evaluations attached to them for lesson learning and accountability purposes. These programmes have been prioritised for evaluation based on a set of criteria outlined in DFIDT’s evaluation strategy. The National Statistical System Strengthening Project has not been prioritised for evaluation and therefore no formal evaluation will be conducted.
However, this model of support to statistical capacity strengthening is relatively new globally and is a new and untested approach in Tanzania. It is vital that lessons learned over the first two and a half years are identified and used to improve the design and implementation of the remainder of the programme.
Therefore, an independent mid-term review will be commissioned in at the end of January
2014. NBS will produce terms of reference with assistance from the in-country statistician and input from DFATD and DFID. In the November Joint Technical Steering Committee meeting,
NBS agreed to move ahead with this procurement as a matter of priority.
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4. Risk
4.1 Output Risk Rating: Medium
4.2 Assessment of the risk level
The risk remains medium at present.
The risk that multiple agencies will not collaborate is medium. NBS and OCGS are currently the main agencies receiving funding through the basket fund. Collaboration is good between them. There are a number of areas where collaboration between NBS and line ministries needs to be strengthened in order to share data. Technical working groups exist in some sectors and there appears to be a willingness to collaborate on the joint strengthening of statistics.
The risk that planning, coordination and execution capacity affects the ability to deliver outputs is high (assessed as medium at inception). Notable improvements in planning and monitoring have been seen over the past year. The annual work plan for 2013/14 was completed in June
2013 and the annual report for 2012/13 was completed in November 2013. As evidenced by slow progress on a number of indicators, plans are not always realistic given the agencies’ capacity. The lack of clear timeframes for the approval of outputs can result in delays and reduced quality. Capacity to deliver in a number of technical areas is limited.
4.3 Risk of funds not being used as intended
Low – The following arrangements are in place in order to ensure that all funds are used as intended:
• The only activities which can be funded using programme money are those on the work plan approved by Joint sterling Committee.
• All procurement activities which are approved in the procurement plan are supposed to use funds from programme money.
• All expenditures and procurement will be subject to Audit which can be used to inform if the funds are not used as intended.
At the time of this review, an audit of funds was not available. This will be available in January
2013 and will be reviewed by DFID and action taken if required.
4.4 Climate and Environment Risk
The project Environmental Assessment is a category B. This is solely due to potential negative environmental impacts from the construction work under Output 5. In 2012/13 the World Bank should ensure that the building designs meet environmental standards and that environmental opportunities (e.g. incorporating renewable energy) are maximised.
5. Value for Money
5.1 Performance on VfM measures
In the Buiness Case for this programme, the value for money narrative focussed on the area
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of economy. The reason for this is two fold. Firstly, this new model of support could support the Government of Tanzania to improve their procurement systems in order to achieve good value for money for DFID funds and also for broader procurements outside of the TSMP basket fund. The project applies the principles of Value for Money in respect of procurement and contracts when supplies and consultancy services are procured. The procurement practices include:

The establishment of a Procurement Unit that deals exclusively with the process of provision of supplies and services and the oversight of World bank in procurement process strengthened the procurement process and ensure that there is competition.

When it is possible NBS aggregate transactions to obtain volume discount. NBS and
OCGS have aggregated the purchase of cars and ICT equipment to obtain bulk discounts.

On purchase of the cars they have ensured that user needs are met but not exceeded.
NBS use specification provided by the Government Agency (TAMESA) to ensure the purchased vehicles have all the required specifications for safety and durability but avoid luxurious items which add unnecessary cost.

The move by OCGS of purchasing motorcycles for data correction (rather than cars) saves the project both money and time.

The
“no objections” which have to be processed by the World Bank before any part of contract process are undertaken ensure that NBS are following all the necessary steps to drive down cost and conduct fair tendering processes.

The development and use of an Operational Manual that sets out the general rules of contract and procurement in terms of procedures, ethics and transparency.
A further reason why the area of economy was the focus is that due to the broad nature of the programme, there were no obvious indicators of efficiency and effectiveness that could be identified as representative of the programme as a whole. This is an area where the programme can be improved and as such it is recommended that the Mid Term Review explores measures of efficiency and effectiveness.
There is evidence that the programme is seeking to achieve both efficiency and effectiveness in its support to the National Statistical System. One example is the detailed reviews of the state of agricultural statistics in Tanzania. Users and producres were able to conclude that the current system is neither efficient nor effective. Thus a comprehensive strategy is being drafted to establish a system of comprehensive and complementary set of tools to meet all data needs in agriculture.
An example of improving efficiency of funds is the decision to reduce the sample size of the forrh coming Labour Force Survey. An increased sample size would provide more detailed disaggregation of the survey results. However, this has to be balanced against costs. The nature of the TSMP support allowed for a productive debate on the pros and cons of the various sampling options and ultimately resulted in substantial cost savings.
An example of improved effectiveness is the process of preparing prioritised work plans. This is part of the TSMP model and enables producers and donors to statistics, to prioritise funding based on an overall picture of all propsed activities. The CWIQ survey was cancelled for
2012/13. This is was not a failure to implement but rather a recognition that the survey would not provide sufficient added value to existing surveys that were implemented in 2011/12 and
2012/13.
5.2 Commercial Improvement and Value for Money
Procurement under TSMP is done directly by NBS using the Tanzania Procurements Act. In
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all cases where NBS is contracting, the World Bank (on behalf of donor partners), monitors and pay due attention to value for money issues. This includes the terms of rates offered to consultants and tendering procedures which help to drive down costs. Terms of Reference for all contracts need to be cleared by the World Bank. Also in all steps of the procurement NBS need to obtain a “No Objection” from the Bank before being allowed to proceed with the next step. This practice ensures that best commercial practice is followed and improves value for money
Through the project, NBS recruited a procurement consultant to help build the capacity of staff and thus improve procurement processes. Prior to this there were delays in processing procurements documents such as ToRs which resulted in delayed expenditure in
2011/12. Following the technical assistance there is now much improvement in the time taken to procure goods and services. This is expected to result in improved performance against financial forecasts in the year 2013/14.
NBS work with partners to produce an Annual Work plan which includes a procurement plan.
Items to be procured in a year are known in advance. This enables strategic sourcing of suppliers, in order to drive costs down.
One of the key issues which should be looked at Mid-Term Review is to ensure that NBS integrates this project to its core function in order to have one budget and one corporate plan.
By doing this NBS will free up time used to manage the project which is currently separate from time management of NBS’s core functions.
5.3 Role of project partners
The National Bureau of Statistics is the implementing institution of the programme and it manages all the programme work. Value for Money rhetoric is interpreted in terms of
“economy” in the Government of Tanzania. DFID has seen NBS make real improvements in this area over the past few years. However there is room to improve Government capacity on value for money, particularly in the areas of efficiency and effectiveness levels.
The World Bank is the lead donor to the project and has a role of managing and approving the work on behalf of the other basket donors, namely DFATD and DFID. Their role in dialogue over high level prioritisation of outputs is key in driving the effectiveness of the TSMP fund.
Further support to statistical capacity building is provided by the Government of Tanzania and a range of bilateral development partners. This support falls outside the basket fund arrangements but it is essential that NBS, World Bank, DFID and DFATD understand the full picture of support to statistics to ensure that there is no duplication of effort and that the
Government of Tanzania’s priorities are reflected in the activities that the basket fund supports .
5.4 Does the project still represent Value for Money : YES
The project certainly represents value for money at the economy level. We should seek to strengthen value for money measures at the efficiency and effectiveness level. The project will have mid term review next year and that is the the opportunity to strengthen and ensure that that value for money measures are fully thought through and implemented.
5.5 If not, what action will you take?
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6. Conditionality
6.1 Update on specific conditions
Not applicable – there are no specific conditions attached to this project
7. Conclusions and actions
The programme of support to the Tanzania Statistical Master Plan (TSMP) is reaching its midpoint. The Mid-Term Review will be conducted in January 2014.
The programme of support represents a new model of donor support to statistics. The programme has been successful in improving the harmonisation of donor support to statistics both amongst basket donors and beyond. This holistic model of support to statistics has certainly contributed to NBS and OCGS’s improved planning. There is a clear prioritisation of outputs and improvements in monitoring progress. The incorporation of a release calendar and implementation calendar into the work planning process has aided transparency and accountability to users of statistics and to donors alike. However, whilst these represent clear steps of progress, there is still need for improvement. The lack of ability to absorb and use the funding available is due predominantly to weak planning processes which need to be addressed in the coming year.
Progress at the output level in this programme is satisfactory. The Statistics Bill is progressing well. When this Bill is passed, it will mark not only a significant milestone in this programme but a significant milestone in the history of Tanzania’s National Statistical System. The implementation of key surveys in 2012/13 and the design of forthcoming surveys has progressed well. The development of key statistical infrastructure, an area not traditionally well supported by donors, such as GIS systems, business registers and the national sample frame
(based on the census data) is progressing well.
At the outcome level, NBS has been reasonably successful in publishing statistics. In particular the timely release of a range of census publications was seen as a commendable success. However, the timely publication of statistics falls short of expectations, particularly in
Zanzibar. It is vital that the Mid-Term Review explores the blockages to timely publications and provides recommendations to address this.
The following recommendations have been identified:
1. DFID continue to follow the progress of the Statistics Bill through Parliament, tracking any amendments to the Bill and the potential implications of such amendments. DFID discuss the progress on Zanzibar regulations with OCGS to identify the best course of action to reach full approval of the regulations as soon as possible.
2. Explore the formats available for releasing GIS shape files and opportunities to strengthen electronic data release.
3. The Mid Term Review should review the programme log frame with a view to how representative it is of the work funded by the TSMP basket fund, realism of targets and strengthening outcome measures. The log frame should be revised in response to MTR
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findings.
4. Explore options of broader support to statistical capacity building including opportunities arising from the Government’s commitment to the Open Data Initiative.
5. Use the Mid Term Review to identify ways of achieving improved value for money in the programme and of monitoring vfm.
8. Review Process
This review was conducted by DFID staff on the basis of meetings with the National Bureau of
Statistics (NBS), Office of the Chief Government Statistician (OCGS) and the World Bank.
Documents used to inform the review included:

Tanzania Statistical Master Plan Annual Review 2012/13

World Bank Aide Memoire for the Joint Implementation Support Mission to the
TSMP (Nov 2013)
A draft of this report was shared with NBS, OCGS, the World Bank and DFATD for comment and clarification.
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