Winner! Winner! Possible Solutions
Possible Solutions for Carnival Games
Rolling Die
Play Amount
Outcomes
Probability
Expected Value
$2
Sum > 7
15
36
1
36
1
6
3
6
6
6
1
20
1
2
1
2
1
5
1
5
(14/36)($5)= $1.94
Profit for
Carnival
$0.06
(1/36)($10) = $0.28
$1.72
(1/6)($0.05) = $0.01
$0.99
(3/6)($0.10) = $0.05
$0.95
(6/6)($0.20) = $0.20
$0.80
(1/20)($4.00) = $0.20
$0.80
(1/2)($4.00)= $2.00
$1.00
(1/2)($0.10) = $0.05
$1.95
(1/5)($0.05) = $0.01
$2.99 for 1st play
(1/5)($0.05) = $0.01
$1.99
Sum = 12
Bottle Bowling
$1
1 pin
3 pins
6 pints
Fish Bowl
$1
1 bowl hit
Weigh in on that!
$3
1 of six items
Pin the Wing
$2
Wings pinned
within an 1 inch
Colors
$3
Picking the
matched color
Spin it!
$2
Selecting the spun
number
For the carnival, many of the prizes are purchased in bulk. For example, the small stuffed animals are 100 to a pack for $5.00. Therefore,
the price for one small stuffed animal would equate to a value of $5.00/100 = $0.05/small animal. Medium sized stuffed animals are 50 for
$5.00; therefore, $5.00/50 = $0.10/medium stuffed animal. Likewise, large stuff animals are sold 25 for $5.00. So, $5.00/25 = $0.20/large
stuffed animal. The fish and bowl have a bulk rate of $4.00 per bowl and 1 digital download costs the carnival $2.00 on average.
II. ANDY
Winner! Winner! Possible Solutions
I would suggest that Andy play Rolling Die four times (cost is $2(4) = $8) since this is the only game that is close to being fair at the
carnival. The last $2 I would suggest Andy play Pin the Wing since there’s a 50/50 chance he will win; even though the game clearly isn’t
fair ($2). At this point, Andy would have exhausted his $10.