REU Students develop new model to predict convectively
induced turbulence
Co-funded by NSF 0755462 and NSF 0746816 and its REU supplement 1036023
Outcome
REU students working in collaboration with scientists at the National Center for
Atmospheric Research have developed and validated a new model to predict
convectively induced turbulence.
Impact/Benefits
Turbulence is a major hazard for aviation that causes delays, routing changes and
can cause serious injuries to the passengers. Providing better information about the
likely locations of turbulence can mitigate these issues, saving money and improving
passenger comfort.
Background/Explanation
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is developing turbulence
nowcast and forecast products for the Federal Aviation Administration's Aviation
Weather Research Program. An NCAR-developed clear-air turbulence forecast
product, Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG), is currently in operational use by
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Aviation Weather Center.
This product has significant limitations in its prediction of turbulence in and around
thunderstorms.
We have developed a spatiotemporal relational prediction model that we have used
on a variety of severe weather prediction tasks. This summer, the students trained
this model to predict turbulence across the continental United States. They
validated the model using actual turbulence observations from United and
Southwest airlines, provided to us by NCAR. They also validated the model on the
severe turbulence event on July 21, 2010. The current FAA models did not forecast
this event and the plane was forced into an emergency landing due to injuries from
the unexpected turbulence.
Images/videos understandable by general audience, with captions and credits
Caption for images below:
Image 1: Turbulence prediction for Kansas and Missouri on July 21, 2010 (coinciding
with the turbulence accident in the same region). Our system predicted severe
turbulence in the area where United Airlines flight 967 encountered it.
Image 2: Turbulence forecast from the DCIT product, which is being developed by our
collaborators at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Their work is funded
by the FAA’s Aviation Weather Research Program and NASA’s Applied Sciences
Program. We are actively working to incorporate our SRRF forecasts will be
incorporated into DCIT in the near future. In this case study, we demonstrate that
both products forecast turbulence over the target area and together, the final forecast
predictions will be improved.