Hurricane Surge Response to Sea Level Rise and Subsidence: A Hypothetical Hurricane
Katrina Case Study
David M. Leone, P.E., Kenneth D. Hunu, P.E., Bin Wang, P.E., Clint Dawson, Ph.D., Daniel
Stapleton, P.E.
Topic(s): Sea Level Rise Guidance, Planning, and Adaptive Management; Coastal Resiliency
Topics; Coastal Mapping and GIS Applications
Abstract:
The Northern Gulf of Mexico is one of the most hurricane prone areas in the world. This year
marks the 10-year anniversary of one of the most catastrophic hurricanes to make landfall in the
United States—Hurricane Katrina (August, 2005). The complex hydrologic setting of southern
Louisiana and Mississippi is conducive to storm surge propagation and inundation of low-lying
areas by large, intense hurricanes. Measured sea level rise and ongoing land sinking, or
subsidence, is another important consideration for the surge potential in the region. Coastal
Louisiana has reportedly experienced a relative sea level rise of eight inches or more in the last
50 years, which is slightly faster than twice the global rate. Sea level rise and land subsidence
creates additional open water areas and also can erode and inundate coastal ecosystems and
wetlands which can attenuate storm surges. This is particularly important to the low lying and
highly populated Greater New Orleans area.
The combination of marked vulnerability to both intense hurricanes and storm surges with a high
degree of sea level rise is important to understand for planning and management purposes.
This case study presents hypothetical scenarios wherein Hurricane Katrina is simulated under
the current and potential future sea level rise / subsidence scenarios to demonstrate the
sensitivity of storm surge impacts to antecedent conditions. The simulations are performed with
supercomputer support from the Texas Advanced Computing Center, University of Texas at
Austin using the sophisticated ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) hydrodynamic computer model
and a very highly resolved input mesh (SL16). The differences in hurricane surge inundation in
coastal southern Louisiana and Mississippi under the observed (2005) and potential future
scenarios will be illustrated through GIS inundation mapping. The findings underscore the
importance of ongoing work by federal, state, and local government and other stakeholders to
address the loss of coastal wetlands, as hurricane surge response to increased sea levels is not
necessarily a linear phenomenon.
Primary corresponding author/presenter:
David M. Leone, P.E., Associate Principal / Hydraulic Engineer,
GZA GeoEnvironmental Inc., 249 Vanderbilt Ave, Norwood, MA 02062
Email: davidm.leone@gza.com, Telephone: (781) 278-5788
Brief biography (100 words):
Dave Leone is a Vice President and Hydraulic Engineer at GZA GeoEnvironmental, Inc., a
multi-disciplinary engineering and science consulting firm based in the metropolitan Boston
area. He has a B.S. and M.S. in Civil Resources Engineering and is a licensed P.E. in three
states. Mr. Leone has over 17 years of hydrology and hydraulic engineering experience,
focusing in surface water hydrology, flood risk evaluations, and design of hydraulic structures.
Most recently, Mr. Leone has been part of a team performing flood re-evaluations at 18 nuclear
power plant sites throughout the United States.