Uttarakhand was hit by torrential rains and cloudburst of a scale not seen in the state in over 50 years, which, along
with accompanying floods and landslides, have caused untold devastation in the state.
Thousands of locals and out-of-state pilgrims on the famous char dham yatra routes (to the 4 holy sites of the
Kedarnath and Badrinath temples, and the Gangotri and Yamunotri glaciers and temples) have died, many villages
have been totally destroyed, many towns have suffered horrendous damage, and several roads and bridges have
been swept away. The material damage and the toll on people has been so heavy, and the civil administration has
been so unprepared, disorganized and overwhelmed, that a week into this disaster even the essential rescue work is
still incomplete, while relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction have not even begun to be envisaged.
A more detailed assessment of the disaster management undertaken will no doubt be done by authorities at both
State and Central levels later, both so as to identify problem areas and so as to put in place adequate strategies,
capabilities and institutional mechanisms to be able to cope better with the next calamity. Hopefully, the considered
opinions of experts, academics, social organizations, panchayat representatives and others would also be taken on
board.
Yet even at this stage, even while the tragedy unfolds, some things are quite evident and need to be understood and
borne in mind. In the midst of relief operations or while dealing with the numerous detailed aspects of reconstruction
and rehabilitation, or even while writing up post-disaster reports recommending follow-up actions, some basic even
causal issues are often forgotten or ignored. Before getting lost in the minutiae of logistical issues, detailed disaster
management plans, procurement and placement of equipment, manpower training and so on, all of which are
undoubtedly important and necessary, it is crucial that we also step back and look at the larger picture, at underlying
factors and issues, so that long-term preventive, precautionary and preparatory measures are taken alongside those
to deal with disasters after they have occurred.
This is critical because, while the disaster itself was precipitated by the sudden and unprecedented downpour, the
calamity cannot, indeed should not, be considered a purely “natural disaster.” Even if one cannot take the disaster as
a fully man-made one, human activity has contributed greatly to the consequences of the torrential rains and the trail
of destruction wrought. The pattern of development in the Garhwal hills, the poor planning and worse implementation
with respect to settlements, infrastructure and tourism, the nexus between political, bureaucratic and commercial
interests leading to numerous sins of commission and omission, all these have contributed to and enlarged the scope
of this disaster. And even the main causal factor behind this calamity, the extraordinarily heavy rainfall, can be at
least partially attributed to societally-induced climate change that has resulted in erratic monsoons and increased
incidence of extreme weather events worldwide.
Climate variability and extreme weather events
Extreme weather events are one of the many well-recognized outcomes of climate change. The increased
occurrence of cyclones, tornadoes, heat waves, excess rainfall and flooding in recent years has been well
documented. But how do we know that these are taking place because of human-induced climate change, rather than
to the usual variability in weather? After all, it rains more in some years than others, there are floods in some years
and droughts in others.
Scientists are now much more confident than a few years ago about the linkage with climate change. First, the
increase in these incidents is well above the standard statistical variation seen over the last many decades. Second,
the severity of these events too is much greater. Just as the decade 2000-2010 saw nine out of the ten hottest years
in this century, so too in the past several years unprecedented quantities of rainfall have been recorded over very
short periods in many instances all over the world. Much more frequent Category 4 and 5 hurricanes have occurred in
the Atlantic and the Pacific in each of the past few years, massive snowstorms and blizzards have hit North America
and Europe in the winter of 2011, unprecedented heat waves and drought have hit the US, France and Spain. In
2012, Beijing in northern China saw as much rainfall as is usual in southern coastal provinces, and 170mm of rain fell
in Beijing just a 17-hour period with some pockets recording over 520mm, breaking all known records by a huge
margin. In Australia, record rainfall described by officials as of “biblical proportions” led to floods covering an area
more than France and Germany together. And who can forget the torrential rains in Maharashtra in 2005 when
Mumbai received a record 666mm of rain in a 24-hour period with some city areas recording 944mm!
The scientific reasoning behind why such extreme weather events take place, and why they can be attributed to
climate change, has been clear for quite some time. Rain or snow fall, in other words precipitation, takes place
because water vapour in the atmosphere condenses upon cooling. With global warming, the quantity of water vapour
in the atmosphere increases. Cooling however is less efficient due to excess greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
which traps heat and allows less heat to escape, so total rainfall may not increase that much. But when it does rain
over specific areas, the rainfall is likely to be heavier due to excess accumulated moisture. Similar explanations
relating to changing patterns of upper air circulation due to global warming can be offered for the increased frequency
and intensity of cyclones and dry-weather events or droughts.
In the Indian monsoons, rainfall data going back to the late 19th century available from Indian Meteorological
Department weather stations all over the country show that the monsoons are arriving later and withdrawing later, by
roughly two weeks on average. The late arrival and departure of the monsoon rains, combined with the different
temperature profile in the changed period, is expected to have a serious impact on agriculture and crop yields.
On the other hand, the monsoons this year have been at least two weeks early. This is quite characteristic of weather
conditions under climate change.
Whereas it is known that more extreme weather events will take place, that there will be more days of heavy rainfall,
that the monsoons are shifting to a later period, climate change also makes weather events more unpredictable. For
disaster preparedness, the key lesson is to take note of these broad trends, and be prepared for the worst in terms of
heavy rainfall and resulting floods, more severe storms, heat waves and droughts.
Disastrous Management
There has been a great deal of comment in the media about the management of rescue and relief operations in
Uttarakhand, and as discussed earlier, even preliminary discussions about reconstruction and rehabilitation have not
taken place. The Armed Forces, along with some paramilitary forces such as the Indo-Tibetan Border Police and the
National Disaster Response Force (NRDF), have performed not just commendably but remarkably in the still on-
going rescue operations mainly targeting pilgrims and the occasional airlifting of relief supplies. The military in
particular has shown yet again that it stands out among institutions in the country as regards preparedness,
capability, performance efficiency and dedication. But the civilian administration in Uttarakhand in particular, and that
at the central level as well, has shown itself to be thoroughly incompetent, unresponsive, ill-equipped and unwilling to
or incapable of learning the right lessons and institutionalizing requisite changes.
The Disaster Management (DM) apparatus at both Centre and State, with the exception of the paramilitary NRDF
comprising battalions from the CRPF, BSF, CISF and ITBP, has itself been an unmitigated disaster.
The first and perhaps most important element of DM is preparedness, which has been self-evidently and woefully
lacking. This is obvious from the poor condition of the roads, the lack of earth-moving equipment anywhere in the
disaster zone, the total absence of any measures to anticipate the flooding and take precautionary flood control or
protection measures near settlements, and the obvious absence of state or local level first responders who have
perforce had to be military and paramilitary.
It is not yet clear what role the National Disaster Management Authority has played in the post-disaster scenario, but
given the developments of the past ten days, one is left wondering if there was at all any DM Plan for Uttarakhand
and what if any steps had been taken to build disaster response and management capabilities in the State. The
Disaster Management Act of 2005 had envisaged a paradigm shift from the usual pattern of post-disaster response to
a pro-active, integrated disaster management system with emphasis on prevention, steps to minimize impacts and
preparedness for dealing with disasters when they occur. This would involve preparation of response and
contingency plans, building capacities in the civilian administration including the police, instituting physical measures
including acquisition and deployment of equipment and working with local communities to build disaster
preparedness in the population as a whole. It is obvious that none of this has been done in Uttarakhand, a state
known to be prone to a variety of disasters and which has suffered major calamities in the recent past, for instance
the infamous Uttarkashi earthquake of 1991.
The State Disaster Management Authority is virtually non-existent, not having had a single meeting the past several
years. And the National Authority, the NDMA, had been without a Head till one was hurriedly appointed several days
after the Uttarakhand calamity. What a disaster!
No relief for locals
At the time of writing, reports from the ground by the media, NGOs and social workers all reveal a virtual vacuum of
disaster response other than the military and paramilitary. The civil administration is conspicuous by its absence.
Pilgrims have herded together by themselves and waited for military helicopters to airlift them, with no local authority
to organize orderly rescue prioritizing women, children, the aged or infirm. While rescue efforts have proceeded
apace, with close to 100,000 people mostly pilgrims having been evacuated to date, little or no relief operations such
as provision of food, temporary shelters, first aid or medical care, clearly not the mandate of the military, have been
visible. All the focus has been on pilgrims, which is understandable to some extent since they are outsiders without
local shelter, care or support systems.
But hundreds of villages have been destroyed in the Kedar valley, Rudraprayag, Uttarkashi, Pauri, Chamoli and
elsewhere. Hundreds maybe thousands of local inhabitants have lost their lives or been seriously injured, numerous
people are still missing, tens of thousands have lost all their property and been rendered homeless. Many thousands
of people from various parts of Uttarakhand, who move to the disaster zone during the yatra season looking to earn
some additional income or even as their main cash income for the year, have been severely affected. No attention
has been paid to any of these local people and their problems, no arrangements have been made for food, medical
care or shelter. Even at the time of writing, leading state authorities are declaring their immediate and “sole priority” is
rescuing the pilgrims from locations of large concentrations, and that “all other issues will be addressed later.”
One understands of course that in disasters of such magnitude, local administration officials, police and health
workers are also among the disaster-affected and it therefore takes time for them to get organized, leave alone
activate themselves for first response. But this is precisely where leadership plays a role, be it from ministers or
elected representatives or from bureaucrats and the police. Regrettably, none has been forthcoming in Uttarakhand,
or for that matter from Delhi.
Pilgrims on the char dham yatra have no doubt had a harrowing time, but at least most of them have been rescued,
with the military taking the lead role with respect to their travails. The local inhabitants, the people of Uttarakhand,
have unfortunately been completely left to themselves, with nobody to hear their laments or look after their needs.
Victims of a calamity largely man-made and certainly compounded by governmental callousness and incompetence.
Disaster waiting to happen
Uttarakhand is not alone in having to suffer from unconscionably poor governance in India. But its people are
certainly paying a heavy price for decades of poor or no planning, rotten implementation, corruption, collusion of
public authorities with vested interests, and a willingness of certain sections to go along with ad hocism and violations
of norms for short-term gains.
Large townships have grown on, or too close to, river banks. For those who have not visited Uttarakhand, visuals on
TV and in the print media show densely packed multi-storeyed houses, hotels and other properties almost on the
waters edge. Many such buildings have collapsed or lie buried under two storeys of mud. Over the years, property
sharks and local officials and politicians have minted money from permitting or encouraging such “development.”
Anyone who has visited Uttarakhand recently would have seen the haphazard development or expansion of
townships, new restaurants, hotels and tourist facilities, all coming up along river banks, with nobody having a clue as
to how and by whom permission was granted.
Then there are the roads. Garhwal has long been known for its poor road infrastructure, even in comparison with the
Kumaon region of Uttarakhand, a story of neglect and backwardness that questions the logic of a new hill state. Now
roads have certainly been built, especially along the yatra routes and linking major towns. But the roads are of poor
quality, the road-cutting leaving already the unstable hillsides even more bare and unstable, prone to landslips even
during normal rains, and proper measures for stabilization of the slopes are not taken. Blasting and other such
techniques are often used unscientifically and without due precautions, damaging not only hill slopes but also nearby
habitations. Material from roadworks or other civil works such as in tunnels, dams etc are routinely simply dumped
into the rivers flowing beneath, especially by private contractors while authorities are least bothered. This has
significantly raised the river bed, making the rivers more prone to flooding even with a little additional or sudden rush
of waters.
A controversy has recently arisen, and will undoubtedly be stoked in the coming weeks, about declaring some
regions of Uttarakhand as “ecologically sensitive.” The issue is not with the label assigned, but its implications. For
instance, whether it means “no construction” or “no development” zones, as with certain forest areas. All concerned
would do well to remember that people of the Uttarakhand hills have long suffered due to lack of roads and
communication infrastructure, poor access to health facilities and to markets for their produce. Issue is not whether
development but what kind of development?
The growing road infrastructure, urban centres and their commercial facilities, and yatra tourism have all grown far
beyond the carrying capacity of these fragile mountainous areas of the Shivaliks and Himalayas, or at least have not
been planned and executed keeping this carrying capacity in mind. A proposed River Zone Regulation, along the
lines of the Coastal Zone Regulations, to regulate construction, commercial and other activities along river banks has
been under consideration for long but has never seen the light of day. Can it be taken up for consideration at least
now? Can the supposedly sacred rivers and mountains be treated with the respect they require?