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1.1
Serbia
Policy and legal framework
UNFCCC was ratified on 12 March, 2001 and the Kyoto Protocol on 17 January, 2008. The Focal
Point of the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol is the Ministry of energy, development and
environmental protection (MEDEP). Division for climate change in environment, within the
MEDEP, is in charge for climate change related issues, while the Environmental Protection Agency
is responsible, among else, for preparation and maintaining of the GHG inventory.
Moreover, the Belgrade South East Europe (SEE) Climate Change Initiative was adopted at the Sixth
Ministerial Conference on "Environment For Europe" Belgrade, Serbia 10 – 12 October 2007 and
sub-regional South- East European Virtual Climate Change Centre (SEEVCCC) hosted by the
RHMSS was established in late 2007. SEEVCCC as a member of the WMO Regional Association
VI Regional Climate Center (WMO RA VI RCC) Network has a mandate to provide regional-scale
tailored climate services on climate data, climate monitoring, long range forecasting and climate
change projections, capacity building, as well as to participate in development and implementation
of the South-East European Climate Change Framework Action Plan for Adaptation which will run
from 2009 to 2015 (http://www.seevccc.rs/CCFAP-A/CCFAP-A.pdf ).
Initial National communication (INC) is adopted by the Government and submitted to the UNFCCC
in 2010. Under the INC, the first vulnerability assessment for hydrology and water resources,
forestry, agriculture, biodiversity and ecosystems and health was conducted. Certain and priority
adaptation measures for those sectors were proposed. Additionally, analysis on observed climate
changes as well as climate change scenarios for the period until 2030 and 2100 were developed.
Based on findings of the INC, the Second national communication (SNC), which is currently under
development, will include analysis on realization of proposed adaptation measures but also more
detailed analysis in hydrology and water resources, forestry and agriculture sector. These sectors are
identified as the priority taking into account vulnerability and importance for national development
goals. Both documents have been developing through the projects funded by the GEF.
In addition, the MEDEP initiated development of Climate change strategy with action plan (IPA
2012, leftover) for identification of mitigation possibilities. However, it will roughly consider
adaptation related issues. Also, the project (IPA 2013) for establishment of economy wide MRV
(monitoring, reporting and verification) is proposed. It shall ensure establishment of system
necessary for implementation of Regulation 525/2013/EC.
Under the Need Assessment Document adaptation and its related issues are identified as priority for
financing in climate change field, until 2017, with projections until 2020.
RHMSS participates in two projects, OrientGate and SEERISK, from South East Europe
Transnational Cooperation Programme, which aims to develop transnational partnerships on matters
of strategic importance in order to improve territorial, economic and social integration and to
contribute to the cohesion, stability and competitiveness of the region.
The OrientGate project aims to coordinate climate change adaptation efforts in SEE countries by
building a lasting partnership between communities that produce knowledge and experimental
studies, and communities that apply that knowledge. The core output to be developed by OrientGate
is a set of web tools, designed to provide access to data and metadata from climate observations and
simulations that will be available through a data platform connected to the European Climate
Adaptation Platform (Climate-ADAPT). More on the web-site: http://www.orientgateproject.org/.
Project SEERISK takes into account specific risks and horizontal challenges. The countries involved
are territorially coherent: the project concentrates on the Middle and Lower Danube Basin, where a
wide range of risk types occur. There are localities where flashflood is the predominant risk factor
whereas in other project territories, unforeseeable thunderstorms cause serious damages or frequent
draughts cause damage to agriculture. Low level of awareness, week preparedness, institutional gaps
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and weak territorial planning are common, horizontal challenges in the region that the project intends
to face with. More on the web-site: http://www.seeriskproject.eu/seerisk/index.zul#main.
Other governmental institutions having competences are ministries of: natural resources, mining and
spatial planning, economy and regional development, agriculture, forestry and water management,
health as well as infrastructure, etc.
Cooperation at the national level in dealing with climate change related issues includes the
University of Belgrade, the University of Novi Sad, the University of Niš, the Institute of Public
Health of Serbia "Dr Milan Jovanovic Batut", the Institute of Public Health of Belgrade, the Institute
for Nature Conservation of Serbia, the Eco Fund of Serbia, the Regional Environmental Centre for
Central and Eastern Europe (REC) and the Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia.
1.2
Impact, vulnerability and adaptation information and assessments
Analysis under the INC shows there was an increase in mean annual temperatures in almost all parts
of Serbia, except southeast part of the country, up to 0,04°C/year. The rises in temperatures were
higher in the northern than in the southern parts of Serbia, and the increase was the highest in the
spring. Most of the territory, except the east and south parts, was characterized by a minor annual
precipitation trend. A decrease in precipitation was observed in winter and spring in northern and
eastern Serbia.
Assessment of climate change in the future obtained by regional climate model integrations show
that further annual mean temperature increase can be expected. According to A1B scenario, increase
in temperature, over the territory of Republic of Serbia, for the period 2001–2030 is from 0.8 to
1.1°C, whilst in case of A2 scenario this increase for the period 2071–2100 is from 3.4 to 3.8°C. In
case of A1B scenario, change in precipitation in the first thirty years of this century would have
minor increase from +5% over most of the area, comparing to reference period 1961–1990.
According to A2 scenario, during last thirty years of this century over the territory of Serbia deficit
in annual precipitation would exist with maximum of –15%.
Vulnerability assessment under the INC shows for:
Hydrology and water resources
A preliminary assessment of climate change effects on the water resources indicate that a decrease of
water flow on the national level, is to be expected in the forthcoming period (up to 2100). The results
of numerical models indicate that the average annual discharge in Serbia will drop by 12.5% until
2020 and by 19% until 2100. Since these assessments are preliminary, need for further research on
the impacts of climate change on the water resources is necessary, as is the adoption of a detailed
programme of adaptation measures.
Forestry
Current warming and large–scale disturbances have caused considerable changes in the forest land in
Republic of Serbia. Droughts, insect invasions and forest fires caused by climate changes become
more probable and threaten to transform entire forest ecosystems, changing the distribution and
composition of forests.
Agriculture
Increasingly frequent and intensive droughts in the past two decades have caused great damage to
Serbian agriculture. According to the evaluation of drought impacts on the crop yield the average
drop in yield was 40.9% in comparison to the average annual yield in the years without drought. In
AP Vojvodina climate change in the past decade has caused a higher or lower intensity of the
following diseases in crops and vegetables: powdery mildew in wheat, Fusarium class, leaf spot in
sugar beet, downy mildew in sunflower and potato and tomato blight.
Bearing in mind the projected increase in air temperature and decrease in precipitation, it was
concluded that agricultural production will be very vulnerable. Assessments obtained from crop
production models show that in second half of this century drop in yield for some crops can be
expected to be up to 10%.
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Biological diversity and natural land ecosystems
Systematic collection of data and analyses concerning climate change impacts on biodiversity has
not yet been realised. Still, the observed climate change impacts on biodiversity and natural
ecosystems in Serbia indicate that climate change may lead to the following: phenological changes;
changes in the morphology, physiology and behaviour of species; loss of existing habitats and
emergence of the new ones; changes in the number and distribution of species; increase in the
number of vermin and diseases; genetic changes, followed by extinction of species unable to adjust
to climate change and changes in the natural fish population.
Health
Exiting approximate data indicate a increase in the last few years of the number of heat strokes and
mortalities during periods with extremely high daily air temperatures in the last few years. Available
data indicate the possible spread of vectors and exotic diseases that can be transmitted from tropical
regions to Serbia. Since the beginning of the millennium, more introductions have been registered,
the latest one being the African virus (Chikungunya) transmitted by the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes
albopictus). This invasive species was registered in Serbia in 2009.
In regard to adaptation, in the INC chapter: Problems and needs, as priority preparation of National
Adaptation Plan are identified. Requested budget for this project is 3 million US dollars (additional
information could be found: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/srbnc1.pdf).
A description of the current and future climate, including observed and projected changes, exposure
and vulnerability to natural hazards, can be found in:
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Strengthening Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems and Risk Assessment in the Western Balkans
and Turkey: Assessment of capacities, gaps and needs;
South east European Climate Change Framework Action Plan for Adaptation;
Climate Vulnerability Assessment, Serbia
simulations of climate change in the Mediterranean area: http://www.earthprints.org/bitstream/2122/4675/1/SINTA_FInal%20Science%20Report%20_October%202008.pdf
regional climate change scenarios and other products and services of the South East European
Virtual Climate Change Centre: http://www.seevccc.rs
Studying Climate Change And Its Influence On The Environment: Impacts, Adaptation And
Mitigation – CLENIAM - Integrated And Interdisciplinary Research Programme (2011-2014)
(III43007): http://www.cleniam.rs
Climate Services/Met Office
The Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia (RHMSS) is responsible for the monitoring of
weather, climate and waters, research and forecasting, early warnings and alarms against the
occurrence of climate extremes and hydrometeorological hazards. More information about RHMSS
can be found www.hidmet.gov.rs/podaci/download/RHMZSrbije_Godisnjak_2011.pdf. Roles and
activities of SEEVCCC in MHEWS and Risk Assessment in SEE can be found in
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/SEE/Geneva16-17Feb/Presentations/6-SEEVCCC.pdf
1.3
Priority sectors for adaptation action
Relevant information could be found: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/srbnc1.pdf
1.4
Local action
Certain analysis should be made under the SNC, as well as National adaptation plan/strategy, once
one it will be developed.
1.5
Summary table
Item
Status
Web links (Max 4 per
item)
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National1 Adaptation Strategy
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
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Action Plans
Impacts,
vulnerability
adaptation assessments
and 
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Research programs
Adopted
Completed and submitted
for adoption
Being developed
Adopted
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INC – completed
SNC – under
development
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Currently being
undertaken
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Climate Services / Met Office
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Established
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Online
Being developed
Indicators, 

Established
Being developed
Initial National Communication 
on
the
UN
Framework 
Convention on Climate Change
INC – completed
SNC – under
development
Web Portal
Monitoring,
Methodologies
1.6
http://www.seevccc.rs/
CCFAP-A/CCFAPA.pdf
http://unfccc.int/resour
ce/docs/natc/srbnc1.pd
f
Climate Vulnerability
Assessment, Serbia
http://www.cleniam.rs
http://www.orientgate
project.org/
http://www.seeriskproj
ect.eu/seerisk/index.zu
l#main
http://www.hidmet.go
v.rs/index.php
http://www.hidmet.go
v.rs/index_eng.php
http://www.seevccc.rs
http://www.wmo.int/p
ages/prog/drr/SEE/Ge
neva1617Feb/Presentations/6SEEVCCC.pdf
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
http://unfccc.int/resour
ce/docs/natc/srbnc1.pd
f
Contact details
Ministry of energy, development and environmental protection, Division for climate change in
environment, Danijela Bozanic, danijela.bozanic@merz.gov.rs
Agency for environmental protection, Dejan Lekic, dejan.lekic@sepa.gov.rs
Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia, Goran Pejanovic, goran.pejanovic@hidmet.gov.rs
1.7
Gaps in knowledge
Detailed vulnerability assessment of water, agriculture, energy and health sector, and on specific
regions.
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Länder/national/subnational regions information shall be included in this section
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Identification of adaptation actions for mentioned sectors, including cost-benefit analysis
Analysis of potential policy measures and tools.
1.8
References
Ministry of Environmental and Spatial Planning, 2010. Initial National Communication of the
Republic of Serbia
http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/srbnc1.pdf
SEE/VCCC, REC, RHMSS, 2008. South east European Climate Change Framework Action Plan for
Adaptation.
http://www.seevccc.rs/CCFAP-A/CCFAP-A.pdf
SEEFCCA, 2012. Climate Vulnerability Assessment, Serbia.
http://www.seeclimateforum.org/upload/document/cva_srbija_english_final.pdf
WMO, 2012. Strengthening Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems and Risk Assessment in the
Western Balkans and Turkey: Assessment of capacities, gaps and needs.
http://library.wmo.int/opac/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=10658
Further reading author, year, title and URL
ENVSEC, UNEP, 2013
Climate Change Adaptation in South Eastern Europe A Background Report.
http://www.unep.at/documents_unep/ENVSEC/Climate_Change/CCSEE-Final.pdf
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