WORKING SESSION
Global Risk Trends
Brief & Concept Note
Brief
1. Why is this topic important ?
Disaster risk reduction strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of
disaster loss, risk patterns and trends, future projections of global social and environmental
change, and a good understanding of the underlying risk factors.
Based on the most recent assessments and evaluations which contributed to Global
Assessment Report (GAR) 2015, the Working Session will provide an overview of the global
risk trends, progress in reducing disaster risk over the past decades, and future challenges and
opportunities. Evidence will be provided of how risk is an inherent part of development and
discussion will focus on how reducing disaster risk can become an integrated part of day-today development practice.
Unless disaster risk is taken into account in the daily decision-making of governments,
companies, investors, civil society organisations, households and individuals, the efforts to
reach sustainable development may be compromised.
2. What gaps need to be filled ?
As the global community moves towards establishing the Sustainable Development Goals,
there is an urgent need to ensure that managing disaster risks becomes an integral part of
development. Relevant risk information provides the basis for development to become risksensitive.
3. What (new) commitments are expected to be achieved ?
Potential commitments include:
 Mechanisms for further collaboration among data providers, modeling agencies, and
countries to share relevant information in support of regional and global
“observatories of risk”.
 Commitment of governments and international agencies to undertake loss accounting,
risk assessment, policy review and incorporating risk into public investment planning
and development policy and local and national levels.
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Concept Note
Schedule
Sunday 15 March 2015, 12:00-13:30
Room and Venue
Main Hall, Sendai International Conference Centre
Organizing Team
UNISDR, Ingeniar, IASA, IIHS, JRC, FLACSO
UNISDR Focal Points
Andrew Maskrey (maskrey@un.org) with support from Bina Desai
(desaib@un.org) and Sahar Safaie (safaie@un.org)
Background and
Rationale
Global average annual losses from disasters – the losses that can be
expected on average each year over a long period of time – are
today higher than ever. Despite pockets of success in reducing
mortality and economic loss in selected regions, cities and for some
hazards, overall disaster risk is increasing.
Unless this risk is managed and ultimately reduced, national and
international goals for ending poverty, improving health and
education for all, achieving sustainable and equitable growth, and
reversing the degradation of the planet and the process of climate
change, will remain unattainable.
At global scale, for the purpose of understanding global trends, the
UNISDR-led multi-hazard probabilistic risk assessment is the first of
its kind to provide open access risk information at a global scale.
Coupled with analysis of progress in risk reduction, global drivers of
change, remaining challenges and future opportunities, the results
of such global assessments point to hotspots that will need
concerted action now and in the future.
The session will highlight prevalent patterns of historical disaster
loss and current trends of disaster risk, providing the starting point
of identifying what any future framework for disaster risk reduction
will have to address. The risk metrics for each country can be
compared with a variety of economic indicators, providing a picture
not only of which countries have the highest absolute risk but
importantly a vision of which economies are resilient to potential
disaster impacts. This segmented analysis will identify the principal
determinants of resilience, the likely consequences for countries if
disaster risks are not addressed as well as providing a rationale for
why and how different groups of countries, as well as business
sectors should invest to manage their disaster risks.
Session Objectives
The session will provide an overview of risk information, current
progress and future drivers of disaster risk at global scale, providing
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the evidence for framework for disaster risk reduction to be agreed
at the WCDRR. It is expected that governments and private sector
will take the opportunity discuss current and emerging risks and
ways of integrating risk information into development planning and
practice in support of sustainable development.
Discussion agenda
and structure
1. Introduction and welcoming remarks (5mns) by chair and
moderator
2. Presentation of global risk trends from the historical disaster
loss data and global risk assessment (20mns)
3. Commentary by countries and institutions that are current and
future users of the information presented (5mns each):
- How are the results relevant to the country/institution?
- How will the country/institution work towards making
future development risk-sensitive?
4. Open floor discussion and Q&A (30mns)
5. Closing remarks by chair and moderator (5mns)
Expected outcomes


Presenting findings from GAR15 and potential use of global risk
information and applications.
Set of recommendations and commitments on using global,
national and local risk information in support of risk-sensitive
development planning and practice.
Commitment /
special
announcement in
support of a post2015 framework for
DRR
Potential commitments:
 Mechanisms for further collaboration among data
providers, modeling agencies, and countries to share
relevant information in support of regional and global
“observatories of risk”.
 Commitment of governments and international
agencies to undertake an integrated process of loss
accounting, risk assessment, policy review and
incorporating risk into public investment planning and
development policy at local and national levels.
Expected number of
participants
500
Background
documents
GAR 15 (to be published before WCDRR): Main report (English
only), The Pocket GAR (in all UN languages and Japanese), GAR at a
Glance (in all UN languages and Japanese)
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