Afar Pastoralist
Development
Association(APDA)
Identifying pastoralists’ traditional early warning indicators to
perk up traditional knowledge and
play a part in the
existing Early warning System
Afar Region
ANALYSIS OF TRADITIONAL DROUGHT EARLY WARNING
INDICATORS IN USE IN FIVE VILLAGES OF ELIDAAR WOREDA
Teshome S. (M.Sc. Agri. Food Sec. & NRM)
March, 2012
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CONTENT
PAGE
List of Acronyms………………………………………………………4
Executive Summary…………………………………………………...5
Acknowledgement…………………………………………………….6
1.
INTRODUCTION ……………………………………………………...7
1.1 Background ………………………………………………………….7
1.2 Purpose of the study ………………………………………………..8
1.3 Objectives of the study ……………………………………………...8
1.4 Methodology ………………………………………………………...9
2. EW SYSTEMS MODEL AND THEORETCAL BACKGROUND.11
2.1 What is Early Warning……………………………………….……..11
2.2 The four known elements of Early Warning Systems……….…..12
2.3 Components of Early Warning Systems…………………….……13
2.4 Importance & uses of EWS ………………………………….……..14
3. DROUGHT CYCLE MANAGEMENT AND EARLY WARNING
SYSTEMS (DEWS)……………………………………………………..14
3.1 Drought Cycle Management……………………………………….14
3.2 Components of DEWS ……………………………………………..17
4. THE EWS SYSTEMS IN ETHIOPIA HISTORICAL
BACKGROUND………………………………………………….…...…18
4.1 Establishment of the Formal Early Warning System……………18
4.1.1 Changes that have taken place in disaster prevention
& Early Warning……………………………………………..19
4.2 Other food security monitoring systems in Ethiopia……………22
4.3 Different drought response triggering mechanisms…………….25
5. TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDGE IN DROUGHT
MANAGEMENT………………………………………………………..25
5.1 Importance of Pastoralists' Indigenous Coping Strategies for
Planning Drought Management…………………………………...26
2
6. LIVELIHOOD IN AFAR AND THE TRADIONAL EW
SYSTEM …………………………………………………………….…....28
6.1 Livelihood in Afar and the Risks Pastoralists’ face……….……...28
6.2 Pastoral communities of Elidaar ………………………………...…29
6.3 Drought/d. cycle & response action; respondents’ insight…...…30
6.4 Current EWS at Regional and Woreda level………….……..…….31
7. TRADITIONAL EARLY WARNING INDICATORS USED IN
ELIDAAR WOREDA ( five village communities consulted).…....33
7.1 Early Warning Indicators (Astronomical) - Movement and
Location of the Stars (constellation) …….……………………….…33
7.2 Early Warning (Meteorological indicators; rainfall, pasture /
browse, water, crops, availability) …………………………….…...34
7.3 Livestock factors: (body condition, reproduction, milk
Production and incidence of diseases)…………….…………..…..35
7.4 Early Warning Indicators related with behavior of birds ……….37
7.5 Early Warning – indicators related with behavior of Insects …...37
7.6 Human factors: (people with special capabilities /pebble
throwers /traditional seers/witchcrafts)……………………...…..39
8. TRADITIONAL EWS TO INFORM ZONAL/REGIONAL LEVEL
ANALYSIS ……………………………………………………………....44
3
9. PROPOSED WAYS FOR REVIVAL & USE OF TRADITIONAL
EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS ………………………..………………45
9.1 Enhanced Early Warning System (EEWS) for drought
Management…………………………………………………………..46
10. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS….………………...46
11. REFERENCES …………………………………………………………...49
ACRONYMS
A.S.L.
B.S.L.
BPR
CMDRR
DRR
EW
EWS
DCM
DPPA
DPPC
DMFS
DRMFSS
DWEB
DMI
DEWS
DMFSS
ENSO
EEWS
EWRD
EWWG
FGD
EEWS
FSPD
FSCB
Above Sea Level
Below Sea Level
Business Process Re-engineering
Community Managed Disaster Risk Reduction
Disaster Risk Reduction
Early Warning
Early Warning Systems
Drought cycle management
Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Agency
Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission
Disaster Management and Food Security Sector
Disaster Risk Management Food Security
Drought Early warning Bulletin
Drought Management Initiative
Draught Early Warning System
Disaster Management and Food Security Sector
El Niño - Southern Oscillation
Ethiopian Early Warning System,
Early Warning and Response Directorate
Early Warning Working Group
Focused group discussions
Enhanced Early Warning System
Food Security Program Directorate
Food Security Coordination Bureau
4
HEA
LIU
MoARD
NMSA
NGO
NPDPM
RED-FS
RRC
SL M
TEWS
TK
NRM
UNISDR
Household Economy Approach
Livelihoods Integration Unit
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development
National Meteorological Services Agency
Non Governmental Organization
National Policy on Disaster Prevention and Preparedness
Management
Rural Economic Development – Food Security
Relief and Rehabilitation Commission
Sustainable Land Management
Traditional Early Warning systems
Traditional Knowledge
National Resource Management
United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
APDA has supported local communities in diverse ways with a number of projects
executed in Afar region and in this typical project (‘Promotion of Drought Resilience in
the Afar Region’) that is on being executed in Elidaar woreda, among other things, the
project is helping local pastoral communities to identify their drought risk profiles and
develop disaster management plans. At the same time, there is a corresponding effort to
strengthen and revitalize the use of traditional drought early warning systems (DEWS)
among pastoral communities in Elidaar woreda. The main thrust in this being the
presence of a locally used traditional drought monitoring indicators that can be sorted
out to trigger signals and relayed to the relevant institutions for appropriate actions.
It is true that Ethiopia has a national drought early warning system that has been applied
at all level, and hence Afar Region is also said to have drought early warning system
managed by the Regional DRMFSS chained at both ends; to the federal and woreda
levels respectively, at one end the woreda reaching the pastoralist communities at grass
root level. The Regional DRMFSS Bureau preparing a monthly drought early warning
information gathering data sheet that is disseminated to ‘Kebele’ chair
persons/stakeholders via the woreda relevant offices (‘kebele’ is the smallest
administrative unit), data collected reaching the region to be swiftly analyzed, these
again passed on to decision makers for action. Unfortunately getting early warning
information back to the communities has been a challenge because of the high illiteracy
levels among other issues; besides there is a problem of isolation due to distance and
lack of infrastructure.
5
The aforementioned challenges have contributed to low uptake of the EW information
leading to insufficient drought preparedness among pastoralists. In seeking ways to
strengthen the existing EWS, this study made a choice to revitalizing the use of
traditional early warning indicators by interrogating all age sets of local pastoral
community members in Elidaar. Analyzing also how the traditional early warning
systems
(TEWS) of these communities can enrich the Formal EWS that is generated
by Regional DRMFSS Bureau which is mainly based on meteorological information. By
so doing to increase the uptake of the EW information by pastoralists and call up on the
commencement of similar works in other woredas.
Thus by undergoing extensive consultation with various stakeholders and
communities, Enhanced Early Warning System (EEWS) for drought management is
proposed for consideration; the study also put forward the use of local FM radio
stations. However, it is important to note at this early stage that the proposed EWS is
NOT preordained to replace the existing formal EWSs, but rather a system that is
informed by both the formal EW information & the traditional early warning indicators;
when all's said and done to increase the uptake of EW information.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The gathering of information on Early Warning Indicators based on Traditional
Knowledge (TK) & Experiences of Elders, Women & Youth in Elidaar Woreda under
the project ‘Promotion of drought resilience in the Afar Region’ was instigated by
APDA and Diakonie Katastrophenhilfe - Diakonisches Werk der EKD, Germany (DKH)
with the aim of revitalizing its use.
The study was conducted in November, 2011 through February, 2012 covering five
selected villages of Elidaar Woreda.
The writer of this very report wishes to thank all those who contributed during the field
visits and final production of this report. These include those people at both Regional
and Woreda level who were willing to put aside their busy schedules and share ideas
and also for their direct involvement in field data gathering together with the lead
partner APDA.
Special thanks go to APDA DRR Manager (Abdu Yusuf) and Hussein Ediris and his
team in Elidaar for their enthusiasm, support, accompaniment and understanding
during the work. The coordination effort and the inputs and thoughts they all put forth
were all extremely valuable. Last but not least, my special gratitude go to the pastoral
communities in Elidaar woreda who in the midst of their move in search of
pasture/browse and water, managed to devote time and share their wealth of
6
knowledge and experience on their own traditional drought Early Warning systems
and specific indicators that have kept them going for decades .
1.0. INRODUCTION
1.1 Background
People-centered early warning systems are known to empower communities to prepare for
and confront the power of natural hazards. They bring safety, security and peace of mind.
Early warning systems provide resilience to natural hazards, and protect economic assets
and development gains. They help society adapt to and defend against the uncertainties of
climate change. Early warning systems are widely recognized as worthwhile and necessary
investments. However in many cases, early warning systems do not exist, are ineffective, or
break down at critical points – risking devastation, death, and destitution.
APDA has been working in Afar region since 1994 APDA is currently implementing a
project named ‘Promotion of drought resilience in the Afar Region’ in Elidaar Woreda.
The project focuses on development of community disaster management plans as well as
strengthening of drought early warning at the Woreda and community levels taking in to
account existing traditional drought early warning indicators altogether, for the provision
of timely and effective information through identified structures that allow individuals
exposed to it to take action to avoid or reduce their risk and prepare for effective response.
APDA has been supporting communities in Elidaar to identify their drought risk profiles
and develop disaster management plans at the community level. Nevertheless, some gaps
have been identified in the way the current EWS is used at community levels. For example,
the current system mainly focuses on scientific information to monitor drought despite the
7
presence of a wealth of traditional knowledge among the pastoral communities in dealing
with climate variability over the years. Also laying emphasis on the fact that communities
need to be helped to see where their traditional indicators are becoming less reliable
due to changes in external environmental factors. So by sorting the existing traditional
indicators and thoroughly looking at what works; perhaps the current EWS can be
enhanced to become more reliable if suitably fused with existing traditional EWS that are
still in use by local communities.
As traditional knowledge (TK) employs information which is already possessed by the
community and which is also valuable to DRR. In Elidaar woreda, the local
communities have a history of experience with drought disasters and these
communities are assumed to have accumulated a wealth of experience and information
regarding prediction, reaction and recovery from drought and this provides a good
opportunity for potential partnership with scientific weather prediction initiatives. And
this particular study is trying to explore the same.
In order to limit the boundaries of the study which is mainly sorting out useful traditional
Early Warning (EW) indicators that can reinforce the existing conventional systems and to
implore stakeholders who in one way or another need to participate and join hands both at
the stage of the planned study execution and at later stages, when major traditional Early
warning indicators are finally sorted and flagged for use; the study was conducted by fully
involving all stakeholders at Regional, Woreda and the ‘kebele’ levels by sharing
productive ideas to enrich the structured questionnaire compiled and also partaking at
the scoping stage of the study and actual in-home interview and field data gathering
through Focus Group Discussion (FGD), all lead by the leading light APDA.
1.2 Purpose of the Study
Established on the need to appreciate traditional early warning systems and drought
coping strategies which have helped pastoral communities in Afar region and
elsewhere to survive for generations; the purpose of this particular survey is to gather
all possible information from elders, the youth and women in Elidaar regarding
traditional early warning indicators so as to revive the traditional knowledge and
enable pastoralists to involve in the existing EWS, and more in disaster management
and risk reduction activities.
The results of the study is projected to contribute to building on what communities
already know about the risks they face, their knowledge of anticipating the effects of
hazards, based on traditional drought indicators; Astronomical guide (movement &
location of the stars (constellation); Environmental factors (rainfall, pasture / browse,
water, crops, availability and incidence of pests and diseases); Livestock factors: (body
condition, reproduction, milk production & incidence of diseases); and Human factors:
(resource based conflict, etc) & more for them to explore on time the coping strategies
they already know.
8
It is also aimed at strengthening the resilience and self confidence of local communities
to cope with drought through recognition and breeding of the traditional early warning
practices and values as part of DRR activities. What’s more, precision of EW and
consequently drought preparedness efforts among the communities is to be enhanced
in the target woreda and more. Generally, the recognition and use of TK is expected to
provide improved self confidence for the community & allow it to some how to deal
with disasters on its own.
1.3 Objectives of the study
To achieve the above purpose, the following is an elucidation of the objectives of the
broad assignment:
i. To gather information on traditional drought EW knowledge; carry out a scoping
analysis to limit boundaries and whom to inevitably involve at all stages of the
study and its use in a participatory manner.
ii. To gather all information and finally sort out major traditional EW indicators and
enhance the linkages of the woreda level drought analysis to the formal EWS which
is hardly in use.
iii. To learn how people access and interpret early warnings and then apply the
lessons to dissemination processes.
iv. At the end work on the evolvement of simple, culturally acceptable and timely
Radio fm EW messages or other means at local level.
1.4 Methodology
In order to formulate the framework of the study, all available relevant literature was
critically reviewed at the start. The review mainly focusing on general theoretical
background on EWS, studies and practices on EWS, utilization of information generated
from EWS, actors and practitioners involved in the implementations of EWS,
experiences of different countries on linking EWS generated information for responses
and various interventions, mechanisms of disseminating EWS reports and information,
etc. The literature review has also included the current Early Warning Systems in
Ethiopia in general, and EWS in pastoral areas of the country, in particular. Methods,
indicators, their relevance, etc. were also reviewed in association with the pastoral EW
monitoring and reporting systems. Information, studies, and other documents from
various national and international agencies including web-based EWS resources were
reviewed. Besides, the pastoral EWS Reports produced by the Regional DPPBs in
collaboration with the SC-UK and other partner agencies were critically reviewed and
analyzed. It is very well understood that considerable work is ongoing in terms of
integrating livelihoods knowledge into drought management.
9
The strategy used for collecting information on traditional drought EW knowledge in
this particular study was in-home interview with a preference to more open-ended
questions, although it costs more per interview than other methods; the difficulty in
travel time also considered. In the main employing various investigation techniques
which included the use of interactive interviews (to all age sets), FGDs, guided semistructured interviews, documentation from oral history, reports, research publications,
and past research studies on indigenous knowledge on drought early warning
indicators within the region and across; the way of sorting traditional early warning
indicators in general, being action oriented, rather than overly analytical, in its
approach. The qualitative information collected from the community discussions and
key informant interviews as well as case studies and project documents review were
consolidated in word by categorizing and summarizing techniques.
At first a meeting was held with key people at both the regional level, particularly with
those involved in drought management and who to somehow claim on the existence of
EWS, before proceeding on exhaustive field visits in Elidaar woreda. At the woreda
level also, meetings were held with key stakeholders that included officials from key
Government line offices and the local administration and ‘kebele’ chair persons. Their
views were sought and analyzed in order to get in-depth understanding of the formal
DEWS currently being used. Their views regarding the traditional DEWS and or
indicators were also sought before proceeding for further consultations with
communities in the field.
Then five community sites were selected and visited on the basis of areas targeted in the
APDA-Diakonie ongoing DRR interventions. More specifically, the expert had paid a
visit to the following five village communities: (1) ‘Kantonera’, (2) ‘Regid ke Afura’,
(3) ‘Harsale’, (4) Suula and (5) Gawha ke Gebelti. In each of the five project localities
visited, the expert was accompanied by APDA field staff and respective woreda
partners on the ground; again the team expanded to include local leaders, ‘kebele’ chair
persons and community members from each specific community visited. Extensive
FGDs conducted with each group also interviewing individuals in each of the five
communities visited. Each meeting ensured adequate inclusion of women, youth and
the elderly for their opinions and input these suitably consulted and systematically
capturing the findings during the FGD process. The writer of this particular report has
also resorted to including interviewees mainly elders, from other woredas
appropriately, to enhance the quality of information gathered in Elidaar and hence add
to knowledge.
The questionnaire: the first part of the questioner (Annex-1) deals with questions
related to names of interviewees which are kept optional; the preliminary questions
following it intending to understand the particular interviewees educational level and
his/her stay in the specified study area for him/her to be able to reflect on life
experiences related to drought scenarios and more, in the Woreda. In the preliminary
10
questions, basic inquiries related to drought are also included to weigh individuals’
level of understanding pertaining to the main issue under study (drought and drought
early warning). This followed by questions related to effects of drought to individuals,
families or communities; these directed to learn who is the first to be affected by
drought in the pastoral setting; what will happen when livestock are affected first? Etc.
And the most important part of the consultation leading to whether there existed
locally, a possibility to know ahead of time, that drought is coming (i.e. Traditional
Early Warning systems) all before learning how communities are informed (by making
use of traditional indicators) about impending or imminent disaster e.g. drought, etc. At
this stage all questions were more elaborated and directed to learning what
communities already know about the risks they face, their knowledge of anticipating
the effects of hazards, based on the following major factors:
A. Early warning (Astronomical) - movement and location of the stars
(constellation)
B. Environmental factors (rainfall, pasture/browse, water, crops, availability and
incidence of pests and diseases);
C. Livestock factors (body condition, reproduction, milk production and incidence
of diseases); and
D. Human factors (resource based conflict, etc) for them to explore the coping
strategies they already know.
The study report is organized into ten chapters. The first chapter provides a detailed
background of the study, purpose and the methodology employed. Chapter 2 looks at
EWS model and theoretical background, and summarizes the importance & uses of
EWS. Chapter 3 devotes itself to issues related to the components of drought early
warning systems (DEWS) and respective EW indicators against the drought cycle
concept; Chapter 4 looks at historical background on the establishment of the Formal
Early Warning System in Ethiopia and the changes that have taken place in disaster
prevention & Early Warning including other food security monitoring systems that
existed; highlighting the different drought response triggering mechanisms. Chapter 5
telling on the importance of traditional knowledge in drought management; Chapter 6
presents what livelihood in Afar looks like with particular attention to Elidaar woreda,
including the Risks Pastoralists’ face plus the respondents’ insight regarding
drought/drought cycle & response actions and an outline of National, Regional and
Woreda level EWS. Chapter 7 fully devoted to the details of the traditional early
warning indicators sorted from five village communities in Elidaar and the respective
adaptive strategies. Chapter 8 examines the key issues that need to be addressed in
strengthening the traditional EWS to inform zonal Regional level analysis and more.
11
Chapter 9 discusses proposed ways for revival & use of traditional Early Warning
Systems, while chapter 10 presents the study’s conclusions and recommendations.
2. EW SYSTEMS MODEL AND THEORETCAL BACKGROUND
2.1 What is Early Warning
When a concept consists of two or more words, it is useful to start by looking at the
components. Accordingly, ‘Early’ implies that time is an important factor in the process.
Therefore, information should be made available in good time to plan and implement
appropriate intervention and prevent human suffering. ‘Warning’, suggests that the
information is about an impending danger not for a general knowledge.
Therefore, ‘warning’ is signs and signals, including scientific and indigenous indicators,
that a hazard is likely to happen and ‘Early warning’ is the provision of timely and
effective information, through identified institutions, that allow individuals exposed to
a hazard to take action to avoid or reduce their risk and prepare for effective response.
Given this background, it is possible to formulate a specific definition as follows:
Early warning is a process of monitoring household economy indicators affecting its
livelihood with a view to warning of the threat of disaster ahead of time. The warning
should in principle trigger timely and appropriate measures.
The formal UN definition describes the term Early Warning as: “The provision of
timely and effective information, through identifying institutions, that allow
individuals exposed to hazard to take action to avoid or reduce their risk and prepare
for effective response”.
2.2 The four known elements of Early Warning Systems
For the sake of common understanding of Early Warning, the UN Inter-Agency
Secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR) has defined
four key elements of an EWS: (1) Risk Knowledge, (2) Monitoring and Warning Service,
(3) Dissemination and Communication, and (4) Response Capability; each further
described in the following manner;
(1) Risk Knowledge - Prior Knowledge of the Risks Faced by Communities: Risks
arise from both the hazards and the vulnerabilities that are present. What are the
patterns and trends in these factors? Risk assessment and mapping will help to
prioritize early warning system needs and to guide preparations for response and
disaster prevention activities.
Risk assessment could be based on historic experience and human, social, economic,
and environmental vulnerabilities. Environmental pressure taken as one of the
factors contributing increased risk.
12
(2) Technical Monitoring and Warning Service for These Risks: There is a need for a
sound scientific basis for predicting the risks faced. Therefore constant monitoring of
possible disaster precursors is necessary to generate accurate warnings in a timely
fashion. Multi-hazard approaches must involve various monitoring agencies.
(3) Dissemination & Communication of Understandable Warnings to Those at Risk:
The warnings need to get to those at risk. Consequently, people at risk need to
understand these warnings, which have to contain useful information that enables
proper responses.
Communication channels from regional to national to community levels have to be
pre-identified and it is necessary to have one authoritative voice.
(4) Response Capability - Knowledge and Preparedness to Act: it is essential that
communities understand their risks; they have to respect the warning service and
should know how to react.
Building up a prepared community requires
participation of formal and informal education sectors, addressing broader concept
of risk and vulnerability.
In general, disaster reduction is aimed at motivating societies at risk to become engaged
in the conscious management of risk and reduction of vulnerability. Determining the
need to warn, even issuing an accurate and timely warning, is not the end goal of an
early warning system. The ultimate goal is to save lives and property. Therefore early
warning needs to become part of a management information system for decisionmaking in the context of Woreda disaster management strategies and particularly the
contingency plan. And for strong EWS key actors should include communities, local
and regional governments and institutions, national governments and institutions, nongovernmental organizations and donors, the private sector, and science and academic
community.
2.3 Components of Early warning systems
Good early warning systems need to have strong linkages between the four elements
stated above. The major players concerned with the different elements have to meet
regularly to ensure they understand all of the other components and what other parties
need from them.;
 Risk scenarios need to be constructed and reviewed and specific responsibilities
throughout the four elements are agreed and implemented.
 Studying past events will help to improve the early warning system.
 Manuals and procedures needs to be agreed on in consultation with
communities.
 Information material should be distributed to the communities at risk.
13
 Operational procedures such as evacuations have to be practiced and tested on a
regular basis.
Activities involved in an early warning process include; data collection, information
development, dissemination methods and action triggering mechanisms. Thus the
EWS process should be understood in the context of an integrated and holistic risk
management framework (Hab, Asch et al, 2009).
Furthermore, cross cutting themes such as good governance, institutional
arrangements, multi-hazard approaches to EW, involvement of local communities,
gender and cultural diversity are also important and essential in the development, use
and determination of the most appropriate EWS (UN/ISDR and EWCIII, 2006).
EWS must be able to trigger timely response, for intervening before the crisis point has
been reached, to protect livelihoods before lives are threatened, and must be seen to be
geared to protect future capacity to subsist as well as ensuring current social well-being
of the communities at risk. It should therefore be able to detect localized pockets of
severe stress and trigger signals for early action.
Behind all of these activities has to bear a solid base of political support, laws and
regulations, institutional responsibility, and trained people. Early warning systems
need to be established and supported as a matter of policy; preparedness to respond
has to be engrained in society; fittingly considering the local knowledge.
2.4. Importance & uses of EWS
Early Warning Systems (EWSs) in the pastoral setting are the primary means of
detecting timely disaster related stress on livelihoods and of eliciting response
(intervention). It is a linkage, which identifies the needs of pastoralists and provides
information for decision makers for effective intervention. Practically not limited to
traditional early warning indicators, EWS need to put emphasis on the monitoring of
markets, rights, assets and opportunities to change livelihoods rather than only on
rainfall, forage and crop production. ‘’it is good to use traditional EW indicators as
long as they are able to trigger response action, as they customarily used to; if at all
these are still working under the dramatically changing global and local
environments’’.
In general, EW is a process of monitoring various indicators affecting livelihood with a
view to warning of the threat of disaster ahead of time. The warning should, in
principle, trigger timely and appropriate preventive measures. It is also viewed as a
multi-sectoral and multidisciplinary business involving local communities, government
agencies, donors and NGOs.
14
In the Hyogo Framework for action 2005-2015, which is the roadmap negotiated by
governments at the World Conference on Disaster Reduction in Kobe, Japan in 2005,
DRR priority number two is the EWS. In the framework, there are clearly spelt out
activities under this priority, which are: Risk assessments, early warning, capacity
enhancement and focusing on regional and emerging risks.
Outputs of EWS can include:
 Short to medium term weather forecasts,
 Prediction of the onset and cessation of a rainy season,
 Prediction of wet and dry spells,
 Climatic forecasts and soil moisture monitoring,
 Outlook for onset of drought.
3. DROUGHT CYCLE MNAGEMENT & EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS (DEWS)
4.1 Drought Cycle Management
The concept of Drought Cycle Management (DCM) was developed in Kenya by Jeremy
Swift in the mid- 1980s under the EU-funded Turkana Rehabilitation Project. It was
adapted by IIRR, Cord-aid and Acacia Consultants in 2004, and is becoming
increasingly accepted as the dominant drought management model in East Africa and
the Horn. The concept was developed following the realization that conventional
responses to drought in the region dealt with development and disaster responses in
the same pastoral areas as separate issues. Drought was seen in most cases as a major
disaster event in need of ad hoc responses which would inevitably affect development
activities and be implemented with costly delays (IIR et al, 2004).
In Ethiopia, SC/US and other PLI partners have made the DCM model central to their
work. Donors including ECHO and USAID recognize its value, and senior government
officials are familiar with the concept. Behnke et al. (2007) recommend earlier that DCM
be made a complementary component of the pilot phase of the extension of the
Productive Safety Nets Program (PSNP) to pastoral areas, even though drought cycle
management is not in the direct remit of the PSNP. In order to implement the model
successfully, agencies need to better integrate development and emergency responses.
Currently, however, there remains a rigid separation between the different elements of
the system.
DCM as an approach has brought a shift in the approach of disaster management. The
shift include from the conventional top-down to bottom-up, from centralized to local
diversity, from blue prints to a learning process. In all these shifts, the emphasis is
that, community play a critical and decisive role in disaster management. Past disaster
management efforts did not focus on community participation, nor were such efforts
institutionalized. By contrast, DCM focuses on community participation as central to
15
risk management, as it ensures local ownership; addresses local issues, and promotes
social cohesion and mutual help. There are no instant answers, nor blanket solutions,
which DCM prescribes from the outset. Rather, it facilitates and builds the capacity of
communities to understand their situation, assess their assets and strengths, and
identify and define priority projects that can address risks affecting their livelihood.
All in all, EW indicators & interventions which may be proposed further in contingency
plans and the actual external agencies response are all designed using the stage of the
drought cycle that can be divided into four broad phases:
1) Normal (Phase I): rainfall failure causes a sharp drop in available feed resources
over a wide area. In spite of long distance movements to find grazing livestock
condition deteriorates. Milk yields decline, disease incidence increases and the
more vulnerable animals, such as the young and very old animals, begin to die.
In order to buy grain livestock owners take their non-reproductive animals to
market, but as supply quickly exceeds demand livestock prices plummet.
2) Alert (Phase II): the drought intensifies and more and more animals become
emaciated and die. Livestock owners try to sell their reproductive as well as nonreproductive stock. Cattle and sheep are especially affected. By the time they are
brought to market they are in poor condition. Livestock prices continue to fall. At
the same time grain prices rise steeply. Cereal prices may soar in quadruple,
while livestock prices crash to next to nothing. Herd owners increasingly turn to
famine foods and other income generating activities e.g. charcoal production if
they live near a town, to survive.
3) Emergency (Phase III): of the drought human disease becomes a major problem.
People become too weak to look after their animals. Many try to migrate to local
towns. The more vulnerable sections of the community -the very young and oldbegin to die. In the meantime the livestock population crashes. Only the camels
and goats survive.
4) Recovery (Phase IV): the drought recovery is underway. The rains return and
fodder production improves, yet livestock numbers remain well below the level
which could make effective use of the range. After the first heavy rains livestock
especially may become vulnerable to pneumonia. As post-drought harvests start
coming in cereal prices fall, while the price of animals starts to rise rapidly, given
the shortage of animals. Many poorer households will have been forced out of
the livestock sector & will be surviving in peri-urban settlements or relief camps.
Effective drought cycle management calls for appropriate actions to prepare for
drought, manage its impacts and assist affected households to recover. Ideally, the
system should include the following (adapted from Behnke et al.,):
• strong institutional, management and coordination structures at all levels;
• effective EW & information systems which this particular study emphasizes;
• drought contingency planning at all levels;
16
•
•
easily accessible drought contingency funds at central, zonal and/or woreda level;
the capacity to implement timely drought response measures and to provide
support to drought recovery interventions.
DCM was designed to identify appropriate activities for each of the four phases of the
drought cycle: normal, alert, emergency and recovery. Given the difficulty in strictly
differentiating between the four phases, recent discussions of the DCM models
emphasize the importance of flexibility in the selection of activities.
3.1 Components of DEWS
Drought is a slow-onset hazard, which provides time to consider and address its
complex root causes, such as understanding people’s vulnerabilities and identifying
unsafe conditions related to poverty, fragile local economy, livelihoods at risk, lack of
strategies and plans, limited institutional capacities and resources. Understanding these
issues allows government authorities and the public to undertake effective drought
mitigation and preparedness measures.
So the EWS must have the capacity to detect the early emergence of rainfall deficiencies,
which is normally the best indicator of incipient drought periods. It is necessary for
effective DEWS to integrate precipitation and other climatic parameters with water
information such as stream flow and soil moisture into a comprehensive assessment
of current and future drought and water supply conditions. With minimum
orientation, apparently this sort of information easily availed by local communities
themselves local knowledge owned added on. Thus, DEW needs simple but dynamic
methods and empirical evidence. Since drought creeps in slowly, it is difficult to
17
quantify and therefore needs multidisciplinary variables/indices and the monitoring of
the whole range of sectors: agriculture, water, health, energy among others. The
current early warning indicators data collection and use encompass:
Crop condition: seasonal
Pasture condition: seasonal
Rain: Seasonal assessment, regular assessment of meteorological station reports
Disease incidence: both human and animal
Livestock market: Seasonal/monthly/weekly
Crop market: weekly assessment
Wild life behavior: occasional
Others/……………….
As monitoring and EWs provide the foundation for an effective and responsive drought
mitigation plan; typical drought plans normally contain three basic components;
monitoring and EW, Risk assessment; and Mitigation & response.
The drought plan however, must rely on accurate and timely assessments to trigger
contingency and emergency response programs. Thus, DEWS do not work alone and it
requires the presence of proactive community, drought contingency plans and a
reliable source of “adequate funding (drought contingency funds)’’ in order to ensure
timely execution of emergency response interventions to ensure realistic impact on the
lives of the pastoralists. It is also important that input from end users should be
implored (i.e. their traditional knowledge) to better understand their information needs.
4. THE EWS SYSTEMS IN ETHIOPIA HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
4.1 Establishment of the Formal Early Warning System
At a time when Ethiopia had no early warning system, migration was used as the key
(late) indicator for the presence of famine and accounts of famine were passed to the
central government through rumors and informal reports by the local police and
administrators. Previous Ethiopian governments were also sluggish in their responses
to disasters due to lack of adequate information, resources, and political will. Response
was very late and lives were lost. Food aid used to be thrown from the air to the most
affected areas, as was the case during the 1973/74 famine.
A formal famine early warning system was established following the 1973/74 famine
that killed upwards of two hundred thousand Ethiopian peasants (Kaplan 1988, 24).
18
In 1976, the military government (which ruled from 1974 to 1991) established the Relief
and Rehabilitation Commission or RRC. Its task was to assess the food needs of the
country and to mobilize resources. It used to advise the government and international
donors about Ethiopia's food balance, the number of people at risk, and identification of
vulnerable regions. The Ethiopian Early Warning System (EEWS, was set up in 1977
within the then Relief and Rehabilitation Commission (RRC). RRC was renamed again
as the Commission for Disaster Prevention and Preparedness or (DPPC) in 1995. The
DPPC used to receive information from the Ministry of Agriculture, the NMSA, the
Ethiopian Nutrition Institute, and the Central Statistics Authority.
The Ethiopian NMSA practicing the same to these days collects and distributes agroclimatic information such as rainfall, temperature, water balance, and sunshine of the
country. NMSA disseminates "flash reports" and seasonal forecasts.
The NMSA agro-meteorology service also releases crop situation reports and four
annual seasonal output reports, two at the beginning and two at the end of the meher
(main cropping season; begins in September) and belg seasons. So far, lack of
competence at the lower level of the government hierarchy remaining as one well
known problem of the early warning system in Ethiopia. Again, for there exists to
somehow, a kind of association between El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and
drought in Ethiopia; the NMSA is known to use ENSO information to supplement its
meteorological early warning system. According to the NMSA, a cool event (La Niña)
leads to decreased rainfall in the belg season (February-May) and heavy rainfall during
the main (kiremt) rainy season (June-September) (Bekele 1993). A warm event is
associated with an above-normal rainfall during the belg season. According to previous
droughts, a positive SST anomaly that lasts at least a year is always associated with
severe kiremt (June/September) drought in Ethiopia (ibid.). Thus, during ENSO years,
belg rains are heavy and the main summer (kiremt) rains are reduced. In normal seasons,
belg rains are variable and the main rains are stable (Glantz 1996b).
For example, based on the 1986 El Niño information, "NMSA has provided a seasonal
forecast, and the DPPC (the then RRC) succeeded in averting the 1987 famine" (Ayalew
1996). In 1988 and 1989 also, the Ethiopian authorities and donors used ENSO data to
recommend appropriate policies regarding the amount of land to be cultivated, input
supplies (seeds, fertilizers), and conservation of food and water (NMSA, in Glantz
1996b, 79). It is following the receipt of the 1992 ENSO information that the Transitional
Government of Ethiopia (1991-95) set up the Disaster Prevention and Preparedness
Committee in the Prime Minister's Office. And so, the famine conditions of 1994 were
averted due to the appropriate use of the 1993 information (Ayalew 1996). In 1996, the
summer floods were predicted by the National Meteorological Services Agency
(Teshome 1997). The NMSA warned of possible flooding in its May 1996 forecast. In
June 1996, the DPPC in turn distributed an early warning to its users.
19
The potential beneficiaries of ENSO information in Ethiopia are farmers, herders, and
the government and the success of an ENSO early warning depends on the actions
taken by its users. The information concerning the advent of an ENSO event could warn
both cash and food crop producers. Based on such information, farmers could introduce
adequate agronomic changes. At the national level, surplus food could be stored for the
next season, and additional food could be imported in anticipation of shortfalls.
Herders might also sell off part of their herds before the arrival of drought. ENSO
information is useful, but it has some weaknesses when applied to specific local
conditions.
ENSO-based weather and climate prediction is general in nature and less effective in
providing locally specific drought early warning. Again, topography tends to make
local microclimates unique and broad statements about the weather, without stating
how the information could be used, is making famine early warning ineffective.
4.1.1 Changes that have taken place in disaster prevention and early warning
In the course of time the EEWS has undergone considerable changes in three major
areas: Organizational, Conceptual and Methodological.
Organizational changes: the EWS is decentralized giving more power to the regional
offices regarding data collection and analysis. The process raising hopes and fears;
On the hope side, information collectors and analysis to be closer to local needs, and
greater scope for designing an early warning system that is appropriate to local
conditions. On the fear side, managing a complex system of early warning could prove
difficult for staff in regions and zones where there is a capacity problem.
Even under conditions of decentralization, the Federal system still has important roles
to play:
• priorities between the needs of different regions in the event of disaster,
• allocate resources at national level,
• issue international appeals on behalf of the nation,
• mobilize domestic resources,
• ensure quality control in early warning performance around the country
Conceptual considerations: It is to be remembered that in the 1990s, several important
documents were developed to guide the early warning system & food security. These
include: (1) The National Food Security Policy; (2) The 1993 National Policy for
Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Management (NPDPM); (3) General Guidelines
for the Implementation of the National Policies on Disaster Prevention and
Preparedness Management; and (4) The Five-Year Disaster Prevention Plan (1998-2002).
The formulation of the National Policy on Disaster Prevention and Preparedness
(NPDPM) shifted the emphasis from famine relief to disaster prevention,
20
preparedness and response. Timely response then became key to saving lives &
livelihoods. This accomplished in two phase include the provision of food, shelter and
medical services to victims of disaster and every effort is made to prevent depletion of
key assets. The second phase comprises, where & when it is needed, the provision of
farm inputs such as oxen, seeds & hand tools in cropping areas, & restocking of
depleted livestock herds in pastoral areas. Figure 1 below captures many of the changes
that have taken place or taking place in disaster prevention in general and early
warning in particular.
Figure 1: Major areas of change in disaster management
The Present &Future
Multi-agency effort
Bottom-up relief planning
Decentralized EWS
Recipient-driven response
Clear delegation of authorities and responsibilities
Comprehensive preparedness modalities
Targeting food assistance to the most needy
Creation of employment
Relief or development
Saving lives and creation of community assets
Preparedness for early response
Protection of crops and preservation of livestock
Focal points and centre of co-ordination defined
Full community participation with gender consideration
Conscious and proactive planning targeting to address
root cause of disaster
Use of relief efforts to assist development efforts and use
of development programs to eliminate root cause of
food insecurity
Source: Yibrah Hagos (1996) The National Policy on Disaster Prevention ad Preparedness and Mnagement,
Proceedings of the workshop on early warning System, Addis Ababa, April 15-20 & April 22-27.
The Past
One agency show
Top-down relief planning
Centralized EWS
Donor-driven intervention
Unclear responsibilities and Authorities
Limited preparedness modalities
Focus on general affected population
Free food handout
Relief
Saving lives
Late intervention
Neglect of livelihood
Focal point at various levels undefined
Imposition of projects/programmes
Reactive response to disaster symptoms
Methodological considerations: The Ethiopian Early Warning System is based on
monitoring ‘aggregate’ indicators for an administrative area or agro-ecological zone or
woreda.
The system monitors largely economic resource indicators using the following
approaches: monthly monitoring of food security at woreda level, seasonal assessments,
and emergency ad-hoc disaster area assessment, the principal output of the system
being to determine areas needing assistance, beneficiary numbers, and duration of
assistance. The system has been criticized for the following constraints:
 Too complex and resource intensive – requires skilled staff at all levels and
requires efficient communication channels, which is lacking in most parts of
Ethiopia
21
 Not suitable for pastoral and agro-pastoral areas in Ethiopia
 Lack of baseline (contextual) information.
In 2004, DPPC was renamed the Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Agency
(DPPA), with a revised and more restricted mandate to focus on acute cases of
emergency response. The responsibility to coordinate employment generation, one of
the major strategies that link relief with development, reassigned from DPPC to the
newly created Food Security Coordination Bureau (FSCB). As such, DPPA made to be
no longer responsible for addressing the underlying causes of disasters, and was
responsible only to respond to rapid-onset disasters or unpredictable events. FSCB
addressing national food security through a productive safety nets program, other food
security-related projects that attempted to enhance assets and livelihoods, and a
voluntary resettlement program. At the institutional level, DPPA was responsible for
transitory vulnerability, while FCS B dealt with chronic vulnerability. In practice,
though, many perceive that this distinction between chronic and transitory
vulnerability is not so clear-cut in reality, as there are some movement of households
between these categories.
The Business Process Re-engineering (BPR) during 2008-2009 again has restructured the
institutional arrangement for disaster risk management, and established the Disaster
Risk Management and Food Security Sector (DRMFSS) under the Ministry of
Agriculture and Rural Development (MoARD), with a significant shift in policy
direction; DRMFSS assuming all responsibilities of the former DPPA and FSCB. DMFSS
overseeing two directorates: the Food Security Program Directorate (FSPD) and the
Early Warning and Response Directorate (EWRD). Under the new structure, DMFSS
undergoing a major shift in its approach from traditional reactive ex-post emergency
response and relief work to pro-active ex-ante preparedness and disaster risk reduction.
There is a Task Force on DRM, led by DRMFSS, that is supposed to bring together
all of the Ministries that deal with DRM at the sectoral level: Ministry of Water
Resources, Ministry of Health, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development,
Ministry of Environment, and NMA; including forum and other similar working
groups and platforms, such as the Early Warning Working Group (EWWG), Rural
Economic Development – Food Security (RED-FS) Group, and the Sustainable Land
Management (SL M) national platform, etc.
DRMFSS at federal and regional level as the focal agency to coordinate all disaster
related activities through its different sections. The early warning system activity
coordinated by Early Waning and Response Directorate or Department (EW&RD) of
DRMFSS at Federal or Regional levels. It is supported by the Early Warning Working
Group (EWWG), with members from line ministries, UN agencies and NGOs with
different assessment mechanisms and methodologies in use.
22
The system so arranged to involve all stakeholders (local communities, Federal and
Regional governments, NGO’s and donors) to participate in seasonal assessments and
in the production of food supply prospects, appeal and monthly early warning reports.
And so far the very well known EW reports produced on a monthly basis is the one
produced by SC-UK in collaboration with the regional governments, WFP/VAM and
FEWS NET.
Generally said, instead of monitoring only rainfall, vegetation and crop production,
decentralized early warning and response capacities that take into consideration local
traditional knowledge are said to have many more advantages than centralized ones.
4.2
Other food security monitoring systems in Ethiopia
Few other food security monitoring systems in Ethiopia include:
► WFP’s Vulnerability Analysis & Mapping (WFP-VAM): Vulnerability Assessment
& Mapping that provides information to WFP aid programming by ranking various
vulnerability indicators on their computer model and highlighting food insecure areas
on a mapping program.
► USAID’s Famine Early Warning System (USAID-FEWS): an indicator based
approach that analyses various indicators including environmental, production and
welfare indicators (rainfall, NDVI, market prices, livestock health, etc.).
► FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning System (FAO-GIEWS): known for
popularizing the food balance sheet approach, which is used to estimate crop
production and calculate national consumption.
► World Vision Ethiopia (WVE): monitoring Crop Production Estimate, Livestock
condition, Market prices condition in its operational areas highlight the food security
prospect through “Food Security Monitoring Survey” publications.
► Save the Children UK (SC_UK) Household Economy Approach (HEA) to early
warning: the approach first, using a quantitative description of the economy of a
defined population, including all the main factors determining current household
income and potential household income under changed conditions, and how these vary
between households. Second, it follows with analysis of the relationship between a
shock and the ability of households to maintain their food and non-food consumption.
Examples of shocks are crop failure from drought or a rise in the price of a staple food.
The approach model the likely chain of events, linking a shock and the outcome.
The SC-UK HEA approach is also known to have several strengths:
23
1. It creates a logical and transparent link between an event, its outcome and the
possible responses, which is accessible to non- technicians and which can serve
as the basis of discussion with a wide variety of people.
2. The approach is based on a minimum “complete” set of information, which
ensures that the collection of information is comprehensive.
3. HEA allows scenarios to be developed using different estimates for each
variable.
4. It enables us to analyze complex change in the economic context. Economic
shocks often involve a variety of factors – such as production change that affect
crops dependent and livestock dependent population differently.
5. The approach is dynamic in the sense that it allows to monitor a situation as it
evolves.
6. It allows an analyst to focus on the needs of defined groups within population
not just an aggregate measure, which reflects an average reality.
7. It tells as not only that a problem exists, but also the scale of the problem and the
relative contribution of different factors to this.
► The PLI-EWS program: the PLI EWS reports used to have much more strength in
monitoring and documenting anticipated hazards and risks that potentially affect the
livelihoods of the pastoralists; looking into the following:
 Rainfall monitoring is done by using gauges as a standard component of EWS;
 Crop monitoring is also done; although it does not say much about pastoralists’
livelihoods.
 Forage performance monitoring was in practice, with issue of further monitoring
needs to access forage.
 The monitoring of water sources was in place, if an element of access considered
as in the case of forage; also monitoring of the livestock conditions and their
products included.
 There was a little bit of food stock monitoring that only shade some light on
status
 Grain prices and livestock prices and supply monitoring was done regularly as
market indicators.
 Asset monitoring had been done to somehow; for pastoralists the most important
asset their livestock looked at.
 Right to endowments overlooked which the PLI EWS paid only little attention
to these issues.
 Monitoring of changing livelihoods; which PLI EWS has inadequately covered.
 Used to monitor all types of movements and migrations also documenting the
normal practices
 Off-farm IGAs monitoring although not satisfactorily covered by PLI EWS
 Hazards and risks monitoring and documenting anticipated hazards and risks
that potentially affect the livelihoods of the pastoralists
24

PLI EWS used to monitor wellbeing also; providing some information on
wellbeing indicators such as poverty situation, wealth status and nutrition
conditions.
Indicators that were well covered within the PLI EWS reports and are found to meet
most of the needs of the users include livestock and products, water sources, forage
sources, markets, rainfall, migrations and hazards and risks. Those indicators reported
by the users as partially covered and some improvements include crop production,
food stocks, changing livelihoods, and rights on resources/endowments. Wellbeing,
off-farm IGAs, and assets are among the indicators that reportedly need significant
improvements as they are fully covered/meet the needs of the users
However, they still can be improved by incorporating information generated by various
agencies. These information include human and livestock disease, crop pests, economic
crisis such as effect of inflation, price shocks, local conflicts due to resource limitation,
seismic activities etc. Information such as weather forecasts and climate predictions
generated through high-tech scientific methods and released by specialized agencies
will have additional value to the users. This information can be included in the reports
in order to make the EWS information more useful for all stakeholders.
4.3 Different drought response triggering mechanisms
 Biannual multi-agency assessments: The government carries out two multi-agency,
multi-sectoral assessments each year to guide it in declaring an emergency and
making an international appeal.
 The rainfall/stocking ratio mechanism: This trigger mechanism is specific to the
Borena plateau, where PARIMA and ILRI have found a strong correlation between
rainfall and stocking rates of cattle.
 The EWS triggering mechanism: Run by the DPPA, with SCUK support.
 EWS run by NGOs: CARE and other NGOs run localized drought early warning
systems.
 Community’s own traditional early warning system: based on experience and
observation of seasonal rainfall levels, bird behavior and the condition of pasture,
water and livestock, etc pastoralists are able to detect risk.
 Nutritional assessments: Nutritional assessments measure the nutritional status of
vulnerable groups, particularly under-fives. Malnutrition rates determine whether
further action is necessary.
 Agency staff on the ground: Agency staffs usually monitor the situation and carry
out situational analysis of drought status, enabling agencies to start discussing a
changing situation and take action.
25
 Declaration of emergency by the federal government: an emergency and appeal for
international support is issued; usually this is done after extensive consultations and
field-based assessments, and may at times be politicized. It typically takes between
eight and 12 weeks after the onset of an emergency for a declaration to be issued.
5. TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDGE IN DROUGHT MANAGEMENT
Traditional early warning systems represent the whole body of knowledge developed
earlier among pastoral communities to anticipate the coming of rains and thus enable
them to mitigate the effect of droughts on their livestock - the backbone of their
livelihoods.
TK employs information which is already possessed by the community and which is
also valuable to DRR. In Elidaar, the local communities have a history of experience
with drought disasters; have accumulated a wealth of experience and information
regarding prediction, reaction and recovery from drought and this provides a good
opportunity for potential partnership with scientific weather prediction initiatives. It is
expected that the integration of the traditional and formal EW systems will boost the
trust of communities on early warning information and increase its uptake for action for
the pastoral communities to avoid or reduce their risk and prepare for effective
response.
Community’s own traditional early warning system: based on experience and
observation of seasonal rainfall levels, animal behavior and the condition of pasture,
water and livestock, etc pastoralists were/are able to detect risk. Therefore there is a
need to appreciate traditional early warning systems and drought coping strategies
which have helped pastoral communities in Elidaar and elsewhere to survive for
generations. And the most effective way to collect and transmit such local information
for use by early warning systems remains to be worked out and should be made a
priority for continuous review and research and discussion especially looking into the
variability of weather caused by climate change these days. One thing is true; with all
the intricacy of the available traditional knowledge the question lies on how far
these can be used to trigger pastoralists self propelled response action or external
intervention under the changing global environment.
5.1 Importance of Pastoralists' Indigenous Coping Strategies for Planning Drought
Management.
Nowadays, drought survival among pastoralists in drier areas is increasingly becoming
arduous. Despite massive hand-outs of famine relief by governments and donors, each
drought is on resulting in dislocation and fatality of the poor.
26
Drought and insecurity combined have resulted in abject poverty (Olsson 1993, Glantz
1987, Fratkin 1997), whereby deteriorating conditions of food security and the
breakdown of the traditional pastoral economy pointing to an uncertain future
(Getachew 1995). Worsening conditions of food security are occurring as interventions
by states and international NGOs are decreasing. Several reasons exist for this state of
affairs.
a) First, development took no notice of the indigenous coping strategies of the
pastoralists, their goals and aspirations (Grandin and Lembuya 1987, Hogg
1990).
b) Second, because coherent government policies on drought are lacking, failure to
reduce drought losses is frustrating the development efforts.
c) Third, programs designed to help the pastoralists did not integrate their coping
strategies into drought management plans (Huss-Ashmore and Katz 1989, Baxter
1994, IUCN 1991).
There are also many reasons why development programs should understand
pastoralists' traditional coping mechanisms:
1. Coping strategies that are being lost need to be preserved for the future
generations (Bellin 1994).
2. It is worthwhile to understand why a system that had previously functioned in
the absence of outside intervention is suffering ecological and economic
pressures (Turton 1985).
3. Drought management planning itself will benefit from understanding how the
societies respond to normal extensions of eco-climatic variations & cope with it.
4. Improvement of food security is more likely to result from strengthening the
indigenous coping strategies than from introducing new ones (Huss-Ashmore
and Katz 1989).
5. Because traditional coping strategies are a major component in the survival of
pastoralists, drought management plans which ignore them will probably not be
sustainable (The World Bank 1995).
All the above factors reaffirm the need for improved understanding of TK; it is also very
well known that, recognition and use of TK by itself to provide improved self
confidence for the community and allow it to deal with disasters on its own. I.e.
recognizing & sharing TK confirm to communities that their knowledge is valuable and
give its members authority over the process of risk reduction. This in turn providing
enhanced security needed to immediately respond to potential threats from disasters
since local community members are the first responders. And so, there is a strong need
to strengthen the resilience and self confidence of local communities to cope with
drought through recognition and propagation of traditional early warning practices and
values as part of DRR activities.
27
6. LIVELIHOOD IN AFAR AND THE TRADIONAL EW SYSTEM
6.1 Livelihood in Afar and the Risks Pastoralists’ face
28
Afar region with a population of about
1.3 million, is a lowland area in northeastern Ethiopia. It has international
boundaries with Eritrea to the north and
Djibouti to the east. Within Ethiopia, it
has boundaries with Tigray and
Amhara regions to the west and with
Oromiya and Somali regions to the
south-east. Of the total population, 80%
are classified as pastoralists. Livestock
holdings declined markedly (by up to
50% in some woredas, according to
some observers) during the recent
drought. There are indications that longterm livestock population trends may be
declining, while the human population
is rising. Most land is used for pastoral
purposes, although much of the land in
the Awash valley in the riverine zone
has been turned over to large irrigated
farms. Land alienation continues, with
150,000 hectares reserved for irrigation
schemes. The damage these losses have
caused to pastoral livelihoods has been
compounded by the spread of Prosopis
spp., commonly known as mesquite,
from the farms into the surrounding
rangelands.
Map of Afar Region,
Prosopis plant, originally introduced to stabilize the banks of irrigation channels, now
infests about 700,000 hectares (Behnke et al., 2007).
The Afar region of Ethiopia (see Figure 1) is one of the hottest inhabited places on earth,
with temperatures exceeding 50 0C and less than 200 mm rainfall per annum (Federal
Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2000). The majority of Ethiopia’s Afar populations
follow a pastoral, transhumant lifestyle keeping multispecies, multi-purpose stock to
provide sufficient milk and meat for consumption, social exchange and occasional sale
(Getachew, 2001). They form a highly traditional society that has received less
development attention than many comparable societies in Africa where traditional
practices and institutions remain strong.
Pastoralists’ risk: Pastoralism as an economic and social system operates effectively in
low and highly variable rainfall conditions; uniquely well adapted to dry land
environments. However, in Ethiopia pastoralist livelihoods systems are becoming
increasingly vulnerable. Human populations are rising, the climate is changing and
international markets are setting ever-higher barriers for access. Infrastructure is poorly
developed, education and literacy levels remain very low and competition for scarce
resources is increasing. The risks populations in pastoral areas face are characterized by
one or more of the following:
1. Loss of productive assets (livestock) due to drought, floods, disease etc;
2. Declining sustainability as livestock holdings decrease and the human
population grows;
3. Declining livestock productivity due to poor husbandry practices and
technologies;
4. Environmental degradation and deterioration of natural resources to the point
that production may decline below recovery levels;
5. Breakdown of traditional institutions and social relations;
6. Inability to access markets and achieve maximum prices for livestock products;
7. Low socio-economic empowerment of women and youth;
8. Geographical isolation in terms of infrastructure, communications and basic
services; and
9. Increasing impoverishment of communities and households
The above findings are all supported by a number of studies done so far & still ongoing.
Drought takes many forms, however, and can be described as a shortage or complete
absence of rain, or merely the late arrival of the rains. Rainfall in the region is bi-modal
and the failure of the main (karma) rains in July August, September and October is
generally considered a drought; an event that may occur every four or five years. If the
small (Sugum) rains; February and March additionally fail the situation can become
quite serious but a major drought, of the kind faced in 1984 and in 1977, typically come
about when two consecutive karmas fail.
Given the pre-eminence of livestock in their livelihoods, it is not surprising that Afars
cite drought, as deterioration of livestock body condition, collapse of livestock markets
and livestock disease as the shocks to which they are particularly at risk.
6.2 Pastoral communities of Elidaar
Livelihood zones are areas within which households share - on average - the same
options for obtaining access to food and cash income, and share access to the same
markets.
Elidaar pastoralist livelihood zone is located in the Northern part of Afar regional state,
bordering Eritrea and Djibouti; it is predominantly semi arid lowland: low lying
altitude ranging from 80 meters b.s.l. to 250 meters a.s.l. Lake Afdera and the fault
Danakil depression are found in this zone. The climate is generally hot and dry and the
30
annual rainfall is less than 100mm, falling during two rainy seasons Karma (July to
September) and Sugum (February to April); Hagai (May to June and Gilaal (October to
December). High Temperatures reaching 50 0C are normal during this period. There
are no permanent rivers but there are only seasonal rivers such as Emino and Kelelu.
The main sources of water are hand dug wells (ellas), ponds and surface water and as a
matter of fact it is not uncommon that this system is supported by water trucking in any
one year, past and present. The vegetation is mainly drought resistant plants such as
Acacia tortilis, Balanitus rotondofolia and Balanitus aeygyptia.
6.3 Drought/drought cycle & response action; respondents’ insight
Drought according to the respondents is generally described as:
 Insufficient /lack of rain for regeneration grasses and browse
 Natural event aggravated by human factor
 Hazard; recurring
 Shortage of rain (total absence), shortage of moisture
 Shortage of water
Drought defined : A temporary reduction in water or moisture availability to
significantly below the normal or expected amount for a specified period (DCM
Handbook, 2005).
Table: Drought cycle and response action as described by Elidaar Pastoralist
community representatives
Drought cycle as described by Elidaar
Pastoralist communities
Appropriate response actions proposed
at each stage:
Normal Stage:
 Availability of adequate rainfall
 Sufficient grass, forage and browse
 Sustained assets holding due to
normal market situation
 Good human and livestock physical
condition
 Increase school enrolment
 Availability of adequate water/
women and children can get water in
their vicinity
 Absence of social crisis
Alert Stage
 Migration





31
Provision of appropriate
extension service
Capacity building/enhancement
Active community participation
Encourage indigenous EWS
Conduct situation analysis

Poor vegetation, grass and browse
and livestock situation
 Erratic and low rainfall
 Quarter filled or dried Birkats/ponds
 Long distance walk to fetch water
Emergency Stage
 Human and livestock death
 Malnutrition
 Migration
 School drop outs
 Food aid and non-food items Blanket
Recovery Stage
 Re-stocking
 Asset building
 Normal vegetation/enough grass and
browse



Share information to concerned
stakeholders
Identify appropriate interventions
Resource mobilization


Water supply/food and oil
Integrate emergency response
/linking relief with development /



Re-integration and rehabilitation
Construction of irrigation schemes
Construction of water development
& other social services
Avail credit and saving scheme

6.4 Current EWS at Regional and Woreda level
With the recognition that food security and early warning activities must be
decentralized to regional and woreda (district) levels; in 1995 the new constitution
established a decentralized federal system that divided the country into a series of semiautonomous Regional States. Most responsibilities for the planning and implementation
of development policies and programs decentralized to this level. Each region has its
own set of government institutions which largely replicate those at the federal level.
Resources and responsibilities for service delivery and project implementation have
been moved to the woreda offices. In practice, however, both woreda & regional
policies are still guided by federal sector policies and by cross-sector strategies and
programs.
Then a second phase of decentralization in 2002 established the woredas as the center of
socio-economic development and empowered Woreda administrations. The Woredas
now have economic autonomy and receive direct block grants from the regional level.
Each Woreda now has an elected council, from which are elected a Woreda
administrator & deputy who exercise overall leadership. The administrator chairs the
woreda cabinet, which consists of the heads of the various government departments
found at this level; DRMFSS also giving priority to develop risk
(hazard/vulnerability/coping) profiles at the woreda level.
The purpose of the profiles being to integrate the baseline data on livelihood zones
(disaggregated by livelihood groups) this developed by the US AID-funded Livelihoods
Integration Unit (LIU ) with historical woreda-level data on hazards (e.g., floods,
32
drought, malaria outbreaks, livestock disease) provided by the line ministries to
determine multi-hazard risk profiles at the woreda level. Ultimately, this information
serving as a source of forecasting and early warning information based on historical
data and also based on real-time data. In addition, the risk profiles serving as a tool for
analyses and planning exercises based on the interface between sustainable land
management (SL M), DRR and CCA, and incorporating information on other sectors
such as water balances, health and nutrition, land use, etc.
As such, DRMFSS is seeking a common methodology for its proposed risk profiling.
And so the existing early warning system places more emphasis on the livelihood zone
database (i.e., vulnerability profiles) at a lower level, and how climate variability
(notably lack of rainfall) can impact household well-being in terms of food production
and consumption. As the data collection sheet in use is more inclined to crop
agriculture, its modification is underway to cover issues pertinent to pastoral setting.
Thus, the woreda-level risk profiling could provide a vast amount of information to
integrate monitoring, forecasting, early warning systems, contingency plans and
contingency financing for multi-hazard analyses that cover many sectors. But looking
into the practices on the ground at Regional, Woreda and the grass root level, the
system of data gathering to assesses multi-sectoral hazards including monitoring of
drought risk, food insecurity, health epidemics, malaria outbreaks, livestock diseases,
and market information and respective communication among the ‘kebele’
(community) levels, which is at the core of the early warning system, is not so well
developed. The systems for data collection, analysis, and dissemination to end users, as
well as strengthening of the communication channels from the community to national
levels needs to be strengthened for effective functioning of the system.
Concerning EW activities in effect, the following facts can be highlighted:
 Earlier as most of the EW activities were jointly done by SC UK PLI project staff
and the DPPB in Afar regions, it is not the case these days.
 The capacity at Woreda levels in Afar is to somehow inadequate when looked at
in terms of skilled manpower, budget, logistics, etc.
 Poor financial capacity to sustain the EWS without external support.
 EWS reports gathered at grass root level are late, irregular and not timely, and
usually done with a continuous and a lot of induction.
 The report is not produced in local languages as it used to be in previous years.
 Indigenous knowledge of communities regarding their own system of EW;
cultural/traditional EWS information (i.e. traditional drought indicators) are not
included neither in the data gathering sheet nor in practice.
 The involvement of stakeholders and partners is not at its expected level,
particularly in Afar.
 Insufficient capacity building activities to sustain the EWS.
33
6 TRADITIONAL EARLY WARNING INDICATORS USED IN ELIDAAR
WOREDA (five village communities consulted)
6.1 Early Warning Indicators (Astronomical - Movement and location of the
stars (constellation)
The Sun:



When the sun is surrounded by different spectrum of light
(‘Garbomadu’ in Afari language) it is an indication of the coming of the
rains and significant greening.
If the sun sets with multihued color it is also a good sign that rain is
coming.
When the sun rises flecked with reddish color, they say, it is a sign of
bad year.
The Moon:




The color of the moon; brown/dark color surrounding the moon
symbolizes a bad omen/drought
When the moon rises newly, its shape of and position of tilting has a
different connotation:
E.g.: - symmetrical shape symbolizes total
absence of rain during the month.
When the moon rises newly and the crescent is directed north ward (to
the left) – it is taken as an indication of bad season/ sign of drought.
If on the other hand the crescent is tilting in opposite direction (to the
right) this symbolizes sign of wet season/rain and therefore the coming
season is hoped to bring good rains.
The Stars:
Humans have gazed at stars for many thousands of years. Different cultures, based on
their own innovation have named visible stars and star groups by native proper names.
In some cultures groups of stars in the sun-moon ecliptic plane were named as zodiacs.
Many of these names have died out and are dying out due to slow tendency toward
unilingual-unicultural pressures, while some other name systems just survive.
In Afar stars have different names and are used for prediction of the weather.
Dohra’ star; it is a single overhead bright star that symbolizes beauty in Afar observed
in the month of … , (3rd to 4th of ‘Moulid’) often awaited for ca 9days
during this period; if observed for only one day it is a sign of good season
34

If ’Dohra’ star is observed for 3 months on continuous it is a sign of bad
year – and drought is imminent.
‘Kahima’ star (7 stars); which are said to be observable mainly to camels show up
during ‘Hagay’ (April, May, June) season; immediately before the
appearance of these stars, there will be a glowing heat followed by a severe
cold. If the cold spell continues it is an indication of the coming of the rains
and heat on the other hand is a sign of upcoming drought.
 If the Kahima star is not seen, libido of goats is said to be reducing; this
time temperature rises and it is only after the star is observable that the
temperature drops.
 ‘Kaihma’ stars move away from east in a certain direction and this is
known as ‘dubte’ in Afar and this situation is known to indicate the
coming of a terrible wind.
‘Malhino’ star: group of 7 stars arranged in such a way that (3 stars lined up to follow
the 4 stars set in rectangular form).
According to legend the four stars are said to be symbolizing 4 lost
camels of which the 2 stars trailed are representing two men searching
these camels and the last 1star standing for a woman helping the male
counterparts, to provide food and water. Generally ‘Malhino’ star
observation is mainly related to lost and found camels.
 With regard to seasonal changes, ‘Malhino’ stars commonly show up in
a group of two stars at a time and the last star pops up only later on.
But in good year the starts are said to pop up all at the same time and
this by itself is known to indicate good season/rainy.
‘Meraki’ (Mahutukta) star; is a morning star used as a perfect indicator signaling
prayer time for the Muslim community.
6.2 Early Warning (Meteorological indicators; rainfall, pasture / browse, water,
crops, availability)
Rainfall monitoring; has been and will be a major part of almost all EWS; put across by
absence of rains and pasture drying out

Drying of surface water collection points such as river beds, artificial
ponds, birkuts & hand dug wells is sign of upcoming drought; a simple
closer look of water levels each time, whether it is full, half or quarter
filled or totally dry at the surface .
Wind direction: a wind blowing North ward (‘kilb’ direction as they call it is an
indication of the coming of high intensity of wind and rains which is
devastating but still liked as it produces a lot of surface water .
 Misty and high speed dusty windy storms coming from either north or
south direction also signify drought in Elidaar.
35

Wind blowing in SE direction is also known to disperse and diverge the
rains (negative); if wind direction is reversed, no drought and it is good.
(Meteorological indicators related to seasons of the year in Afar Region)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
July, August September = ‘Karma’ long rain
October, November, December, January = ‘Gillal’ long dry season
February, March = ‘Sugum’ short rain
April, May, June = ‘Hagay’ warm season
Dadaa =January/Feb spontaneous rain
6.3 Livestock factors: (body condition, reproduction, milk production and
incidence of diseases);
Conditions of livestock:
 When drought is looming immediately after the month of January (‘WissuHagai’ hot season), camels are not able to stay for 5 consecutive days without
drinking water and if allowed to drink they take excessive water and
refuse/are reluctant to move away from the watering point. The communities
in Elidaar strongly believe that this behavior is an indicator of a dry season
and it is not uncommon for people to die during this time due to shortage of
water. The opposite is held true, when cattle take water and run around
jovially as if in a celebration mood, it predicts good season (rains) is coming.
 The cattle bulls become arrogantly playful when the coming season is going
to be good. Sometimes breaking watering troughs with their horns as if to
declare that very soon the cattle will not queue for water.
 After ‘Wissu’ the ‘Liane’ follows which is more severe and the temperature is
so hot and suffocating that even snakes are coming out of their hiding
(incidence of snake bite will also increase dramatically).
 When livestock refuse to obey or follow the directions the herd man is
leading them to follow and run away or hurry in different/opposite
directions this symbolizes bad hunch or drought.
 If the cattle refuse and go back to the Kraal and run away facing different
directions it is a sign of bad season; if they ran towards the Kraal/home
around 3 o’clock in the afternoon -it shows a good season to come.
 If camels shake their body as if to remove water from their body after
drinking water, it is a good sign that rain is coming; normally camels do not
shake.
 Sometimes female camels urinate while sitting as if to express the
hopelessness for the future.
 If camels run away, are browsing haphazardly and appear to have lost their
hearing senses, it depicts a bad season.
36



When camels brush their legs together - this symbolizes a good indication of a
bumper season
Camels in good year munch without browsing as if the mouth is full of feed;
in Afar this is named as ‘Mat hauta’ and this is a sign of upcoming good
season.
When wild animals come closer to dwelling units it is an indication of
drought and elders advise community members/women in particular, to
save butter for the inevitable bad times.
Sounds and behavior of cattle:
 When cattle make some specific throat vocal sound when sleeping at night is
an indicator that the coming season is going to be good. However, there is a
special throat vocal sound, if they make will indicate a bad season as well.
 If a camel moans or makes a mourning sound and also hesitates when lead to
browse by returning home, this is an indication of bad season or the
likelihood of other bad incidences such as the death of elders a child or a
camel.
 If the morning sound of foxes is a kind of laughter; this is taken as a sign of
good year and it is most likely that it rains.
Reproduction:
 Grunting of the camel bulls (making mating calls) symbolizes a good rainy
season. The jovial mood of camel also is an indication that the coming season
is good as well.
 Sudden increase in libido, mating and general excitement of livestock
symbolizes the rain season is approaching and communities to make upfront
decisions.
 If female camels hate their homestead, leave their kids and move away to far
places while there is abundant browse around, it is a sign of bad year and
communities unanimously agree to leave the area and move. Normally,
when the season is expected to be good female camels come back to their kids
now and then.
6.4
Early Warning Indicators related with behavior of birds
Migration of Birds;
 When certain birds (‘Elelee’) soar very high in the sky, it is an indicator that
the rain is far (drought), the opposite is true, and when they fly low it means
the rains are approaching.
37







If ‘Hantigumaitu’ bird which means the ‘milk bird’ is seen around it is a
good sign that pastoralists are getting more milk from their cattle from
abundant rain and corresponding forage availability.
Bird (‘kuranu’) indicates the coming of guests to the village or (a household).
Bird( ‘Gaya’ = duck) indicate the coming of rains.
A bird named as ‘Berhai’ in Afar, that lives in stony areas; this bird often
sitting between giant stones swings its wing against the stone and produces a
special sound named “koda” which the Afari also call a milk shaking sound
as if to produce butter (“Ha rukuta”) and it is a sign of good year with plenty
of milk for all.
If ‘Barahi’ birds make only one cracking sound it is taken as a sign of bad
year/drought coming; while the sound comes incessantly like a fountain then
the rain is to come (no drought).
‘Tuluwuul’ Bird( green bird) when the year is good these group of birds stay
where goats browse altogether, and if they remain aloof it is an indication of
upcoming drought.
(Another prediction based on “Tulwuul’ bird is that if these birds flock
in group and guide the livestock towards grazing by taking the lead as if
to show grazing sites, it is a sign of good year and if their position is at the
tail of the livestock drought is expected. In good year the birds are also
said to be guiding the herds back home in a similar fashion by taking the
lead.
Where Ostriches exist; if these birds come closer to dwelling units it is taken
as a signal for impending drought.
6.5 Early Warning – indicators related with behavior of Insects
Behavior of insects:
 When black ants make and follow only one route from their hole is an
indication of a bad season while if they made more than 4 routes from their
holes it shows a good season.
 Special beetle named as “Haggay farii” is making an annoying sound it is a
sign that the upcoming season is dry.
 A beetle named “Didda’ in Afar; it usually construct its nest out of mud/soil
either on stands/polls of dwelling units or right on the wall; the Afari elders
closely observing the size of the nest the beetles have constructed, it is
possible for them to predict the season. By classifying the size of the nest as
big , normal and small. If the nest is big and above normal it is a time of
plenty and if too small it is an indication of drought year.
 When a green beetle comes home and collides with the wall structure and
fails on the ground, elders used to put butter or ash on it to predict the future;
also singing the following song in Afari language; /‘’If you are evil eyed –
die!!! - ‘’If you are the sheik escape unharmed!!!”/ and it so happens that the
38
beetle either die or escape. Escaping of the particular beetle is taken as an
indication of good season to come (soon to rain) or the opposite to happen if
the beetle dies.
Behavior of Ants:
Ants display a rich diversity of behaviors in obtaining food, promoting the survival of
their colonies, and defending against predators. The various behaviors of ants are
influenced by their senses and by information stored within their nervous systems. Ants
seem to be capable of a certain amount of learning. For example, foraging ants rely on
memory—a form of learning—to recognize landmarks in the area where they search
for food. Ants display a remarkable diversity in the environments they live in, the foods
they eat, and their strategies for survival.
Ants perform many essential functions in ecosystems. They turn soil, move organic
matter and soil nutrients, reduce insect populations, serve as food for other animals,
disperse seeds, and sometimes pollinate flowers. In agriculture, they are the most
important predators of insects, helping to keep pests under control. People in Elidaar
use ants for highly specialized purposes (drought prediction).
 ‘Dakura’ (Ant) also means to jump about in Afari language, the prediction is done
by women who are involved in fetching water; women closely observing the
movement of the special ant based on its natural feeling (by its own instinct).
Drought prediction is done in two ways. The women either pick one of the ants by
their finger and thumb and put the ant in front of a shallow ditch which they have
artificially constructed by simply scratching the soil with their finger, for the ant to
move on its own wishes, and observe the direction of the ants’ move for prediction.
The ants move will be either within the ditch or away from the ditch in all possible
directions.
In some villages women simply look into the ants’ natural movement without
capturing individual ants. They do observe whether the ant/s is/are moving within
the lower ground or is/are jumping about stones now and then while on the move.
Whether constructing artificial route or simple observation of natural movements of the
ants is practiced for drought prediction, the interpretation is that when the ant/s refrain
from simply following the artificial route constructed and opt to jump over
sands/stones as if in a rush to escape, all informed by its/their own instinct, is/are said
to be afraid of being washed away by incidental water, presumably a wall of water
foreseen in the eyes of the ant, and this phenomenon is utilized to predict the upcoming
rains (no drought). Whereas the ant/s admits/admit to move within the artificial
ditch/route or refrain from jumping about stones, and be in motion within the limit of
the lower ground; these situation signify drought in such a way that the ant/s move in
39
the ditch is safe for the ants have known by instinct that there will be no probable
rain/water to wash them away.
Please see the illustration below for those women who practice the weather prediction
by capturing individual ant and direct its move by placing it in front of artificially
constructed shallow ditch made by finger scratching;
Case ①: The ant placed by a woman right in front of the ditch which she has artificially
constructed; the procedure repeated two to three times, the ant moves within
the ditch as directed, it is a sign of bad season and drought is to happen.
”””
Case ② similarly, the ant placed by a woman in front of the ditch may move away
from the artificially constructed ditch as indicated in the picture below and the
prediction is for the rains to come/no drought or good season.
Do you know that Ants are common insects, but they have some unique capabilities?
More than 10,000 known ant species occur around the world. They are especially
prevalent in tropical forests, where they may be up to half of all the insects living in
some locations. Ants communicate and cooperate by using chemicals that can alert
others to danger or lead them to a promising food source etc.
6.6 Human factors: (people with special capabilities /pebble throwers
/traditional seers /witchcrafts)
Human beings, of all nature's animals, seem to have an extraordinary ability to predict
and to some degree control the future states of the universe... well most human beings
that is. For instance a four-year-olds may have an amazing degree of skill, and fortyyear-olds with a seriously diminished capacity to either predict or control the future.
Sadly many of the latter end up in the custody of the criminal justice system, possibly
because of nothing but a failure of imagination. For instance when children imitate warplay elders say “it is an indication of war”.
40
The pastoral communities in Elidaar and elsewhere in the world have been able to
survive in fragile and hostile environments only because of their capacity to predict to
somehow, being vigilant to what surrounds them both at a distance as far as the stars
and the moon and the biotic and abiotic factors close by in their surroundings. In
Elidaar there are these ‘’people with special capabilities’ who are also cursed by many
in religious terms; named as pebble throwers, traditional seers or witchcrafts.
Nonaligned to the above connotations what so ever, the writer of this particular report
has interviewed to family members of a pebble thrower groups in Elidaar and has
gathered the following information regarding the very protocol followed by the pebble
throwers to predict not only future weather conditions but also twist of fate in life.
Here goes the etiquette/protocol followed by the pebble throwers for prediction of
different future incidences including the weather. (Pls. see the sophistication of the
steps in the diagram below; for you to think of how it did persist thus far and whether it
really has a predictor value in all terms.
Step 1: The pebble thrower collects 48 pebbles & makes a composite unit to work with.
48 pebbles (a composite unit to work with)
Step 2: The pebble thrower randomly divides the 48 pebbles in to four portions
41
Step 3: He then separates the four portions with arbitrary number of pebbles each
Step 4: From each portion he picks two pebbles at a time until one or two pebbles
remain and he repeats the same process eight times. Then based on the number of
pebbles which could remain at the end in each of the quadrants either in odd (i.e
one pebble) or even (two pebbles) respective names are designated as shown in
the table below:
Pebble thrower taking two pebbles at a time from each of the four random pebble sets.
Table: Names designated for the remainder of the pebbles in the four quadrants
step 1to 4 are undergone eight times.
42
after
1 “Terick”
2 “Gamaa”
3 “Nifadu”
4 “Bisgibida”
5 “Reskubari”
6 “Sankafday”
7 “Oqula”
8 “Kitmaa”
With one additional step undergone the names specified above are then used to foretell
different happenstances not limited to prediction of the upcoming rains; all based on
the arrangement of the remainder pebble counts in the four quadrants [each time a
composite is made out of the 48pebbles to be randomly divided to make respective
counts in sequential order following the steps indicated above( step 1to 4)].
Step 5: For the prediction of either drought or upcoming rains (“Robamatina”); the
pebble thrower carries out step 1to 4 (four times) and then mixes up the final counts of 1
and 3 separately (i.e. Jumble 1) and so count 2 and 4 (Jumble 2). He then divides jumble
1 first into two and then jumble 2 similarly, in this order to come up with 4 quadrants
having smaller number of pebbles. Then he picks 2 pebbles from each of the quadrants
until one or two pebbles remain in each of the quadrants as a final output for
interpretation/prediction.
For instance Output No. 8 described; based on the arrangements of the pebbles that
remain after the final count is as shown below i.e. “Kitmaa”, it means rain is sure (no
drought) and pastoralists are advised to stay put (not move) in search of water.
43
“Kitmaa” =
(Output No. 7 described; i.e. occurrence of “Oqula” pastoral communities for which the
prediction is made by the Traditional Foretellers (seers)/Pebble throwers /people of
special capability also called “witchcrafts”, the prediction is that, drought is coming and
pastoralists are urged to move in search of water and pasture/browse.
“Okula” =
As prediction by Pebble throwers is not limited to prefigure upcoming rains or drought;
in accord, all the remaining designations have different interpretations.
(No. 1) Terik; according to them is interpreted as an indicator for someone or a
group to remain in the move or be a voyager.
“Terik” =
(No. 2) Gammaa is said to be an indication of gathering towards someone, a family
or a village (the coming of guests, relatives or friends)
“Gammaa”
=
(No. 3) Nifaduu; for example if the result of the pebble throwing ends up in Nifaduu
it is interpreted as the will at hand is said to be achieved positively; whatever.
“Nifaduu” =
(No. 4) In case of “Bisgibida” occurrence, a woman is expected to bring new and
realistic information regarding lost camels/goats or what not. So is good to
listen to what a woman tells at this point in time.
“Bisgibida”
=
44
(No. 5) The “Reskubari” episode specifically signifies whatever was lost, which in
the case of the pastoral setting could be camels /cattle/goats; the lost animal
is said to be still in safe hands ; and can be traced through “dagu” systems.
“Reskubari”
=
(No. 6) “Sankafday” which in Afar language is means the distance between the
eyebrow and the eyelash the interpretation is again related to lost camels
cattle or goats and they presage the fact that the lost item is within closer
distance and is to be found soon.
“Sankafday
”=
Conflict as an indicator: Poverty induced behavioral changes taken as the principal
attribute for conflict or zero tolerance; the previous generations who lived in
abundance to somehow were said to have lived in harmony amongst themselves and with Mother Nature up until scarcity produced greed and
consequent conflict. The new generation is said to have lost the above virtue
all due to growing scarcity of resources.
7
TRADITIONAL EWS TO INFORM ZONAL/REGIONAL
LEVEL
Communication channels from community levels, to woreda zonal, regional and
national level and vice-versa have to be pre-identified and it is necessary to have one
authoritative voice. Inclusive of the traditional Early warning systems, for the formal
EWS to work successfully, the fundamental principles and pre-conditions indicated
below need to be followed:
The whole activities need to be Knowledge and skill based: EW information should be
collected and analyzed professionally, and inclusive of the indigenous knowledge
(community early warning information and responses).
45
Participatory actions required: the key stakeholders at community, woreda and regional
levels need to have a stake to contributing to EW information and checking with the
reality in order to ensure the quality of information and get acceptance by policy
makers and donors.
Timeliness of information dissemination: the EW information should reach the right
audience on time and keeping on informing and updating until the information is used
in order to trigger timely response.
Linkage/Integration with complementary risk management intervention: the EW
information should inform the emergency and development interventions, and vice
versa, the risk management implementers need to institutionalize the EWS into the risk
management programs/interventions.
Use of baseline information: the EW information should be analyzed and interpreted in
reference to the established livelihood zoning and baseline.
Commitment of the government staff at different levels: this is mainly expressed in
terms of allocation of resources (human, physical and financial resources),
Accountability and transparency: the information collected and analyzed should reflect
the reality, & avoid organizational bias so that information users will not be suspicious.
9. PROPOSED WAYS FOR REVIVAL & USE OF TRADITIONAL EARLY
WARNING SYTEMS
Education for disaster risk reduction is an interactive process of mutual learning among
people and institutions. It encompasses far more than formal education at schools and
universities and in training courses. It involves the use of traditional wisdom and local
knowledge to safeguard against natural hazards as well as the active and informed
participation of the local media (fm radio etc).
Interpreting coping strategies and indicators is a difficult business, and which changes
over time, as livelihood patterns themselves change. Without consulting communities
properly it is easy to misinterpret the changes taking place from year to year and season
to season in pastoral livelihoods. So, to avoid such problems, it is necessary to make a
viable linkage between the formal EWS and traditional EWS through the
development of seasonal gatherings with a range of government and community
representatives.
9.1 Enhanced Early Warning System (EEWS) for drought Management
Building up a prepared community requires participation of formal and informal
education sectors, addressing broader concept of risk and vulnerability. Recognize also
46
the importance of working with traditional structures of organization and management.
It is therefore important to build a close partnership with local communities, listening to
their perspectives and developing joint plans and mechanisms to address problem
areas. As such it is important that communities get proper feedback on how
information is being used.
Therefore, it is good to pursue the following steps for drought early warning at the level
of the end users:
1. Enhance the EW task force which practically exists informally at village
community level, mainly composed of elders who normally take the lead in EW
and all community issues.
2. Clarify the purpose and objectives of the early warning which is to flag selected
and well known traditional indicators.
3. Sort those powerful traditional indicators,
4. Flag the selected powerful traditional indicators at community level indicating
the impending drought (Publicize),
5. Include the same in the regular /EW data sheet and pass on to regional
concerned bureau for analysis, and
6. Encourage communities to solicit for response action with the government
administrations following the existing hierarchy,
7. Enhanced early warning system to be foreseen (think of also broadcasting EWS
findings in local fm radio etc).
Linked with traditional livestock indicators; it is important that the PLI EWS livestock
related indicators which cover livestock number, physical conditions, type,
productivity, trend, livestock disease outbreaks, usual movements of animals, changes
on these compared to normal, etc, their use need to be invigorated.
10. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Drought is typically a slow-onset phenomenon, which means that it is often possible to
provide early warning of an emerging drought. Such information allowing for a shift
from reactive to proactive hazard management and represents a change in focus from
disaster recovery to disaster prevention. For there is no single definition for drought, its
onset and termination are difficult to determine. We can, however, identify various
indicators of drought specific to sectors or water uses, and tracking these indicators
provides us with a crucial means of monitoring and providing early drought warnings.
A starting point for reducing drought risk and promoting a culture of resilience lies in
gaining knowledge about hazard occurrence, the potential effects of the hazard, and the
related vulnerabilities of potentially affected people and activities. Existing traditional
knowledge utilized, drought monitoring and early warning systems play an important
role in risk identification, assessment and management.
47
It is true that in many practical situations we are always facing a problem of making
decision; and as making decision based up on sample information and experimental
evidence is important and essential, the traditional early warning study conducted calls
up on further probability studies to see how far the predictions made based on
traditional indicators sorted are working or not (no doubt they work to somehow!).
Community’s own traditional early warning system: based on experience and
observation of seasonal rainfall levels, animal behavior and the condition of pasture,
water and livestock, etc pastoralists were and are able to detect risk. Therefore all along
with growing appreciation that traditional observations and outlook methods may have
scientific validity, there should be increased interest in harmonizing traditional and
modern scientific methods of climate prediction. Besides, it is essential that we begin to
compile and analyze, in a consistent manner, information on the occurrence of drought
hazards, to enable a better understanding of past and future changes.
Warnings capable of warning of large-scale famine also need to be sensitive to changes
in livelihood security status at community level long before famine threatens. Most
responses came (and are still coming) in the form of food aid when famine had already
taken place, but an outbreak of famine is a clear signal that the early warning and
response process has failed to prevent it (Borton et al , 1991).
As, the PLI-supported EWS reports were the major sources of pastoral EW information
since the recent past in Afar region, for the system is adequately covering most of the
entitlement EW indicators; the EWS reports were used by several humanitarian
organizations for various purposes including advocacy, response planning and
intervention, and vulnerability analysis. And most users were satisfied with the
contents of the EWS reports and their dissemination mechanisms with some suggested
improvements; this needs to be strengthened including also an element of traditional
early warning indicators used and in use by communities.
Again as EWS should not be a process of data collection and analysis to be considered
the end result; it ought to be part of a bigger system that is aimed at mitigating and
responding to a crisis. Data analyzed at regional level, need to call up on outright
decision for response action before it is too late. Death tolls of either animals or
human beings need not be the major signals that call for individual or collaborated
action at later stages
Generally, EW needs to be sustainable through innovative and adaptive technologies,
scientific knowledge not ignored; and by review as this provides an appropriate
opportunity to review the value of bringing on board the traditional early warning
knowledge of communities to be part of the bigger EWS system.
48
Good to develop mechanism and put systems in place to extract information from the
regular EW report and produce area specific EW messages that go in line with the
traditional EW knowledge and experience in local language by the Regional DPPB this
very well communicated with the community.
The traditional indicators sorted need to be flagged and shared regularly during early
warning coordination forum meetings in Afar that involves stakeholders and establish
a working mechanism for information sharing; fm radio use considered.
The study was inspired not only by the obvious value of indigenous knowledge in
natural resource conservation and natural disaster management but also by the need to
systematically document it to avoid the knowledge being lost. It was expected that if it
is documented it would enhance understanding of the application and use of
indigenous knowledge in sustainable development.
So, this rudimentary study taken as the first of its kind initiative taken by APDA in Afar
region, the writer of this report calls up on similar works to be done in a number of
other Woredas to add to knowledge and enhance the first step findings.
In general, as drought impacts and losses can be substantially reduced if authorities,
individuals, and communities are well-prepared, ready to act, and equipped with the
knowledge and capacities for effective drought management. It should be very well
recognized that mitigation and preparedness have a greater impact on reducing the
scale and effects of drought disasters than ad-hoc emergency response measures.
11. REFERENCEs
Buchanan-Smith, M, 1992. Famine early warning systems and response: the missing
link? Case study: Turkana District, north-west Kenya, 1990-91. In: Buchanan-Smith, M,
Davies, S, and Petty, C, 1992. Famine Early Warning Systems and Response: the missing
link?. IDS, Sussex
49
C. Pratt. 2001. Traditional early warning systems and coping strategies for drought
among pastoralist communities. Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts
University, Medford, MA, United States.
Government of Ethiopia, 1997. Draft Contingency Plan for Borana Administrative Zone
of Oromia Region; DPPC task force. Addis Ababa.
Issack, Abdirahman Ali and Yusuf, Ahmed, 2010. “What worked and what didn’t: The
experience of Save the Children UK Ethiopia on piloting Community Based Early
Warning Systems in 3 districts of Somali and Afar” Study commissioned under the
Preparedness Improved Livelihoods and Resilience (PILLARII) PROJECT. Save the
Children UK Ethiopia. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
http://www.disasterriskreduction.net/fileadmin/user_upload/drought/docs/Save%2
0the%20Children%20- %20CBEWS%20Lessons%20learned%20-%20Ethiopia.pdf
Monnik,K.2000. Role of drought warning systems in South Africa‟s evolving drought
policy. http//www. drought .unl.edu/monitor/EWS/ch5_ Monnik.pdf( 2011, May 14).
Platt Christopher, 2002: Traditional Early Warning Systems and Coping Strategies for
Drought Among the Pastoralists Communities Northeastern, Kenya. Fletcher School of
Law & Diplomacy.
Sammy M., 2011, Strengthening Drought Early Warning at The community and District
levels, Analysis of Traditional community warning systems in Wajir & Turkana
counties; A report to Oxfam GB, Kenya.
Transitional Government of Ethiopia (TGE), 1993. National Policy on Disaster
Prevention and Management. Addis Ababa;
Users’Survey’ 2010; The PLI supported EWS Information, User survey conducted by
Geo-Space Analytical Services, Addis Ababa
The UN OCHA Pastoralist Communication Initiative 2007; The future of pastoralism,
Ethiopian representatives and leading international thinkers deliberation over the state
of pastoralism, making a new analysis of potential futures.
►UN-ISDR, undated. “Four Elements of People Centred Early Warning Systems”
http://www.riskinstitute.org/peri/images/file/PERI_Symposium_UNISDR.pdf
50