MIDDLE EAST CONFLICTS AND GLOBAL SECURITY Professor Naomi Weinberger School of International and Public Affairs Columbia University REGN U6719 Thursdays 11AM-12:50PM Classroom: 407 IAB Fall 2015 Office hours: Mondays 1-3pm 1321 IAB August 31 draft ABSTRACT This course analyzes the impact of domestic and regional conflicts in the Middle East on global security. Key concepts include: regime change, revolution, insurrection, conflict management, security sector reform, arms transfers, nuclear proliferation, and counterterrorism. These conceptual tools are used for comparative analysis of three sub-regional conflict zones (Palestine/Israel, Syria/Lebanon, and Iran/Iraq), which have experienced varying degrees of global engagement. COURSE FORMAT The class features an open-ended lecture format. Lectures draw on a broad range of sources and provide a context for challenging perspectives expressed in the assigned articles, as explored in give-and-take with students. Assigned readings are selected to convey of a range of opinions on controversial themes. Each week, three selections (mostly articles from scholarly journals) constitute the assigned reading, which students are expected to complete in advance of class. Restricting the syllabus to several readings per week cannot do justice to the complexity of each topic. However, a realistic reading assignment enables students to fulfill this requirement diligently, and you are expected to do so. Supplementary sources will be suggested, to encourage exploration of specific topics in greater depth. ACADEMIC INTEGRITY Rigorous standards of academic integrity are enforced in this course. Any written assignment submitted with evidence of plagiarism will receive a grade of zero. REQUIREMENTS AND GRADING o o TAKE-HOME ESSAYS [30% of grade] Two essays, each of which addresses one of the sub-regional conflict zones covered in the course. For each essay assignment, you will choose one topic from a list of several options. The key to doing well on the essay is to make a convincing argument and to demonstrate that you have done the relevant assigned readings and considered them critically. TAKE-HOME FINAL EXAM [30% of grade] o SIMULATION EXERCISES [20% of grade] o A take-home final will be due on the first day of exam week. You will select 6 out of 10 quotations, selected from the assigned reading, and respond to the question posed about each quote. The exam covers all of the material in the course. UN Special Committee on Palestine (1947) Future of Syria (Conference format) ATTENDANCE AND PARTICIPATION [20% of grade] ATTENDANCE: Students are expected to attend class regularly [10 points]: o One point will be deducted for each unexcused absence (up to 3). A student who misses 4 sessions (other than for health or family emergencies) will earn an attendance score of zero. PARTICIPATION: Students are invited to participate actively in class discussion. [10 points]: o Each student is required to submit two critical questions, each of which is derived from a different article, by Wednesday evening every week. One point will be deducted for any week in which questions are not submitted. o A student who submits questions on time every week will automatically earn a score of 6 for participation. Additional credit (up to 10 points) reflects quality of class participation, such as thoughtful and knowledgeable insights into readings. CHRONOLOGY OF WRITTEN ASSIGNMENTS ASSIGNMENT TOPIC DATE DUE POSITION PAPER: GAME 1 UNSCOP SEPTEMBER 28 2 ESSAY 1 PALESTINE/ ISRAEL OCTOBER 19 POSITION PAPER: GAME 2 FUTURE OF SYRIA NOVEMBER 9 ESSAY 2 SYRIA/ LEBANON NOVEMBER 16 FINAL EXAMINATON ENTIRE COURSE/ emphasis on IRANIRAQ DECEMBER 14 SEQUENCE OF TOPICS IN THE COURSE SUB-REGIONAL SESSION DATE CONCEPT CASE(S) 1 9/10 OVERVIEW [SURVEY] 2 9/17 REGIONAL & GLOBAL SECURITY [THEORY] 3 9/24 COMPETING NATIONAL VISIONS PALESTINE MANDATE 4 10/1 SIMULATION EXERCISE UN SPECIAL COMMITTEE ON CONFLICT ZONE PALESTINE / ISRAEL PALESTINE SYRIA / LEBANON IRAN / IRAQ 5 10/8 ARMS TRANSFERS ARAB-ISRAEL WARS 6 10/15 CONFLICT MANAGEMENT WEST BANK & GAZA 7 10/22 SECURITY ZONE SOUTHERN LEBANON 8 10/29 MILITARY ELITES SYRIA 9 11/5 INSURRECTION SYRIA 10 11/11 SIMULATION EXERCISE FUTURE OF SYRIA 11 11/19 REGIME CHANGE IRAQ 12 12/3 REVOLUTION IRAN 13 12/10 NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION IRAN 3 WEEKLY TOPICS AND READINGS All readings will be posted on Courseworks, in Files and Resources. INTRODUCTION 1. OVERVIEW [Sept. 10] No assigned readings 2. REGIONAL AND GLOBAL SECURITY [Sept. 17] Marc Lynch, “Obama and the Middle East.” Foreign Affairs, October 2015. Florence Gaub and Alexandra Laban. “Arab Futures: Three Scenarios for 2025.” Report no. 22. Paris: EU Institute for Security Studies, 2015. Grant Rumley and Amir Tibon, “The Death and Life of the Two-State Solution.” Foreign Affairs 94:4 (August 7, 2015): 78–87. PALESTINE / ISRAEL 3. COMPETING NATIONAL VISIONS [Sept. 24] Benny Morris, Righteous Victims (Vintage Books, 1999), Chapters 1-3. Rashid Khalidi, The Iron Cage (Beacon Press, 2006), Chapters 3-4. Chaim Kaufmann, “When All Else Fails: Ethnic Population Transfers and Partitions in the Twentieth Century,” International Security 23:2 (Autumn 1998): 120-156. 4. SIMULATION EXERCISE: UN SPECIAL COMMITTEE ON PALESTINE [Oct. 1] 5. ARMS TRANSFERS: ARAB-ISRAEL WARS [Oct. 8] Avi Shlaim, The Iron Wall (2000), Chapter 4, “The Road to Suez.” William Quandt, Peace Process (1974), Chapter 2, “Yellow Light: 1967.” 4 Mohammed Heikal, The Road to Ramadan (1974), pp. 207-256. 6. CONFLICT MANAGEMENT: WEST BANK & GAZA [Oct. 15] Rema Hammami and Salim Tamari, “The Second Uprising: End or New Beginning,” Journal of Palestine Studies (Winter 2001). Kimberly Marten, “Reformed or Deformed? Patronage Politics, International Influence, and the Palestinian Authority Security Forces.” International Peacekeeping 21:2 (March 15, 2014): 181–97. Eitan Shamir and Eado Hecht, “Gaza 2014: Israel’s Attrition vs. Hamas’ Exhaustion.” Parameters 44: 4 (Winter 2014-2015): 81–90. FIRST ESSAY: DUE OCTOBER 19 SYRIA / LEBANON 7. SECURITY ZONE: SOUTH LEBANON [Oct. 22] Avraham Sela, “Civil Society, the Military, and National Security: The Case of Israel’s Security Zone in Southern Lebanon,” Israel Studies 12:1 (Spring 2007): 53-78. Benedetta Berti, Armed Political Organizations (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2013), Chapter 3, “The Lebanese Hezbollah: Armed Struggle and Political Integration.” Iver Gabrielsen, “Military Strategy and the Conduct of the 2006 Israel–Hezbollah War.” Comparative Strategy 32:5 (November 1, 2013): 435–42. 8. MILITARY ELITES: SYRIA [Oct. 29] Christian Sahner, Among the Ruins: Syria Past and Present. Oxford University Press, 2014. Chapters 34. Bassam Haddad, “Syria’s State Bourgeoisie: An Organic Backbone for the Regime” Middle East Critique 21:3 (Fall 2012): 231-257. Raymond Hinnebusch, “The Foreign Policy of Syria,” in The Foreign Policies of Middle East States, 2nd edition (Lynne Rienner 2014) ed. Hinnebusch and Ehteshami. 5 9. INSURRECTION: SYRIA [Nov. 5] Nader Hashemi, “Syria, Savagery and Self-Determination,” in The Syria Dilemma, edited by Nader Hashemi and Danny Postel. MIT Press, 2013. Michael Weiss and Hassan Hassan. ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror. New York, NY: Regan Arts, 2015, Chapters 7 and 9. Fred Lawson, “Syria’s Mutating Civil War and Its Impact on Turkey, Iraq and Iran.” International Affairs 90:6 (November 2014): 1351–65. 10. SIMULATION EXERCISE: FUTURE OF SYRIA [Nov. 12] SECOND ESSAY: DUE NOVEMBER 16 IRAN / IRAQ 11. REGIME CHANGE: IRAQ (2003) [Nov. 19] Fawaz Gerges, Obama and the Middle East (New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan Trade, 2013), Chapter 2. Zaid al-Ali, The Struggle for Iraq’s Future, Chapters 3 and 9. Michael Knights,. “The Long Haul: Rebooting US Security Cooperation in Iraq,” January 2015. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/the-long-haul-rebooting-u.s.-securitycooperation-in-iraq. 12. REVOLUTION: IRAN [Dec. 3] Said Amir Arjomand, “Iran’s Islamic Revolution in Comparative Perspective,” World Politics 38:3 (April 1986): 383-414. Anoushiravan Ehteshami, “The Foreign Policy of Iran,” in The Foreign Policies of Middle East States, 2nd edition, ed. Hinnebusch and Ehteshami (Lynne Rienner 2014). Kagan, Frederic. “Khameini’s Team of Rivals.” American Enterprise Institute, July 2014. 6 13. NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION: IRAN [Dec. 10] Robert Litwak,“Iran’s Nuclear Chess.” Woodrow Wilson Center, n.d. http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/irans_nuclear_chess_calculating_americas_moves.p df. Dalia Kaye et al, Israel and Iran: A Dangerous Rivalry, Chapters 3-4. Gary Samore, editor. “The Iran Deal: A Definitive Guide.” Belfer Center, Harvard University, August 3, 2015. http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/25599/iran_nuclear_deal.html. FINAL EXAM : DUE DECEMBER 14 7