REVISED PROGRAM, 4TH GENERAL CONFERENCE OF THE INTERNATIONAL MICROSIMULATION ASSOCIATION
College of Business and Economics, Australian National University, Canberra, 11-13 December
Wednesday, 11th December
8:00am
Registration opens
Tea, coffee and networking, CBE Foyer
9:00 am
Opening session
Copland LT
Conference Welcome
Laurie Brown
On Statistical Significance
Deirdre McCloskey
10:30am
Morning tea, CBE Foyer
11am
LT 1, CBE
Pensions, poverty and inequality
Estimating poverty reduction effect of the tax-benefit system in Finland 1993-2013 using
microsimulation method
The policy effects on income inequality in Finland 1995–2012
Pasi Moisio, Kirsi-Marja Lehtelä, Susanna
Mukkila
Pertti Honkanen, Jussi Tervola;
Thinking Outside the Box – “Modest” Reforms of the Canadian Pension System
Michael Wolfson
Would reforms to the disability and financial eligibility criteria for disability benefits for older people
in Great Britain improve targeting? Policy simulations exploiting estimates of latent disability and
disability costs
Ruth Hancock, Marcello Morciano, Stephen
Pudney
Microsimulation methodology
LT 2, CBE
Fidelity and computational efficiency of batch matching procedures
Richard Cumpston, Bronwyn Loong
SYLLS: synthetic data estimation for UK longitudinal studies
Belinda Wu
Development of the dynamic pension micro-simulation model with static ageing for Slovenia
Boris Majcen, Joze Sambt, Mitja Cok, Tomaz
Turk, Natasa Kump
Public health care and microsimulation
LT 3, CBE
Developing population health models using a stepped approach of increasingly complex model
specification: the example of the Population Health Model for cardiovascular disease
The short term costs of Work Related Stress. A microsimulation approach.
Microsimulation models as a tool for public health policy: the success stories
Lifetime Redistributive Impact of Publically Financed Health Care Services in Canada
LT 4, CBE
Douglas Manuel, Deirdre Hennessy, Carol
Bennett, Meltem Tuna, Richard Perez, Peter
Tanuseputro, William Flanagan
Roberto Leombruni, Chiara Ardito, Angelo
D'Errico,
Allison Heath,Carol Bennett, Christina Bancej,
Douglas Manuel
Michael Wolfson
Special Session: SMILE, a microsimulation model from Denmark
The Danish microsimulation model SMILE - An overview
Peter Stephensen
A Bayesian approach to labour market modeling in dynamic microsimulation
Hans Bækgaard
Conditional inference trees in dynamic microsimulation - modelling transition probabilities in the
SMILE model
Modeling household formation and housing demand in Denmark using the dynamic microsimulation
model SMILE
Marianne Hansen, Peter Stephensen
12:30pm
Lunch, CBE Foyer
1:30pm
LT 1, CBE
Income tax modelling
Jonas Hansen
The distributional effects of income tax expenditures
Silvia Avram
Micro simulation study of the potential impact of a negative income tax in Germany: Expected
changes in labor supply and poverty
Fiscal and distributional effects of corporate income tax in Poland – a simulation analysis based on
microdata
The redistributive effect and progressivity of taxes revisited: An International Comparison across the
EU with EUROMOD
Maximilian Sommer
Anna Leszczylowska
Gerlinde Verbist
Wealth
LT 2, CBE
Combining theoretical with statistical models: the modeling of wealth in LifePaths
Martin Spielauer
The 4% Solution
Marvin Avery, Richard Morrison
Implications of Low Housing Affordability on Superannuation
Marcia Keegan
Is Saving for Suckers?
Richard Morrison
Health modelling in Canada
LT 3, CBE
Projecting cardiovascular disease incidence in Canada: hitting a moving target
Long term estimates of Incident Diabetes in Canada
Effect of a high-risk strategy for BMI reduction on osteoarthritis prevalence in Canada: a
microsimulation study
Development of population-based microsimulation models to estimate health and economic impacts
of neurological conditions on individuals and caregivers in Canada: POHEM-Neurological
Deirdre Hennessy, Carol Bennett, Meltem Tuna,
Richard Perez, Peter Tanuseputro, William
Flanagan, Douglas Manuel
Meltem Tuna, Deirdre Hennessy, Carol Bennett,
Claude Nadeau, Laura Rosella, William
Flanagan, Richard Perez, Peter Tanuseputro,
Douglas Manuel
Jacek Kopec, Eric Sayre, Philippe Fines, William
Flanagan, Claude Nadeau, Anya Okhmatovskaia,
Michael Wolfson
Christina Bancej, Philippe Fines, Douglas
Manuel, Ronald Wall, William Flanagan,
Rochelle Garner, Julie Bernier
Life course projections
LT 4, CBE
The Survival of Lineage Populations in Historical China: A Simulation Study
Zhongwei Zhao
Education, homogamy and living standard over the life course: A microsimulation approach for
France
Official population projections using microsimulation: Statistics Canada's Demosim model
Pierre Courtioux, Vincent Lignon
3:00pm
Afternoon tea, CBE Foyer
3:30pm
Lecture
Theatre 1, CBE
Distribution and tax-transfer systems
More targeting, less redistribution? An enquiry into the role of policy design
Eric Caron-Malenfant
Lina Salanauskaite
How Progressive Could Turkish Personal Income Tax Be? A Static and Behavioural Microsimulation
Analysis for Turkey
The social and budgetary impacts of recent social security reform in Belgium
Özlem Albayrak
Analysis of income inequalities in Hungary for 2013 by the ECOS-TAX microsimulation model
Ilona Cserhati, Tibor Takacs,Tibor Keresztely
Gijs Dekkers
Demand and consumption
LT 2, CBE
The Effect of Population Ageing on Aggregate UK Household Spending: a pure microsimulation
approach
Population synthesis for travel demand forecasting
Simulating retail demand at the individual level: stage 1 demand synthesis
An agent based spatial interaction model for rental households’ choice of residence: Brisbane as a
case study
Tony Lawson
Poh Ping Lim; Dept of Infrastructure and
Transport
Kirk Harland; University of Leeds
Mark Birkin
Yan Liu; The University of Queensland
Childcare
LT 3, CBE
Between price and availability: the distributional and employment effects of changing childcare
policies in Flanders
Applying individual level data on children’s care periods to microsimulation models
Child benefit reforms and principles of redistribution: Empirical results from a set of alternative
scenarios for Belgium
André Decoster, Joris Ghysels, Dieter
Vandelannoote, Pieter Vanleenhove,
Gerlinde Verbist
Anita Haataja, Jukka Mattila,
Maria Valaste
Wim Van Lancker, Gerlinde Verbist, Tine
Hufkens, Dieter Vandelannoote,
Labour, behaviour and incentives
LT 4, CBE
7:00pm
Tax Response Inertia in Labor Supply: Effects of State Dependence in Preferences and Opportunities
Zhiyang Jia, Trine Vattø
Stability of elasticity estimates in the context of significant changes in labour market incentives
Michal Myck
Estimation of a labour supply model: application to the earnings test for pension beneficiaries
Marjan Maes; HUBrussel , KULeuven
Welcome function, Rydges Lakeside
Thursday, 12th December
9am
LT 1, CBE
Inequality and uncertainty
Life time pension benefits versus life time contributions
Nils Martin Stølen
How much inequality can we explain? The role of heterogeneity in preferences and in opportunities
Uncertainty, insurance and automatic stabilizers
Andre Decoster, Pieter Vanleenhove,
Rembert de Blander
Erik Fjaerli
Tax reform evaluation using non-anonymous welfare comparison: An application to a consumption tax
Tanja Kirn
Special session: Speaking One Language: Developers and Users Discuss open M++
LT 2, CBE
Micro-Simulation and Big Data Predictive Analytics
openM++: An open source development platform for industrial strength longitudinal microsimulation
models and agent-based models
LT 3, CBE
Drew Mellor, Andrew Murphy, Don
Perugini, Michelle Perugini
Steve Gribble, Anatoly Cherkassky,
Michael Wolfson
Health and inequality
The economic impact of non-adherence in HIV/AIDS
Creating a synthetic base file for a micro-simulation model of the early life course
Effects of Income Inequality on the Slope of the Health Gradient – An Exploration using the Theoretical
Health Inequality Model (THIM)
A Framework for Developing a Spatial Microsimulation Model of Co-Morbidity
10:30am
Morning tea, CBE Foyer
11am
LT 1, CBE
New Issues in Tax-transfer modelling
Chris Schilling, William Kaye-Blake,
Peter O'Connor, James Messent
Barry Milne, Roy Lay-Yee, Jessica Thomas,
Janet Pearson, Peter Davis
Michael Wolfson
Ferran Espuny, Karyn Morrisey
Reform of Australian urban transport: a CGE-microsimulation analysis of the effects on income distribution
George Verikios, Xiao-Guang Zhang
Simulating indirect taxation in FASIT
Henrik von Hofsten, Tom Nilstierna
Distributional Benchmarking in Tax Policy Evaluations
Zhiyang Jia, Peter J. Lambert, Thor O.
Thoresen
Validating the static ageing and reweighting techniques in STINMOD
Annie Abello, Matthew Toohey
Issues in Pension Provision
LT 2, CBE
The contents of a recently launched project : MiDLAS : "Towards a dynamic MSM model, administrative
Data for MSM in Lxg, the comparative Analysis of tools pertaining to the economics of ageing and a
better understanding of Stakeholders' perception"
Analysis of Optimal Funded Pillar Participation using Dynamic Microsimulation
Gijs Dekkers, Philippe Liégeois
Projecting functional disability and receipt of disability-related benefits in the UK: What can we learn from
historical data?
The impact of immigration on pension adequacy in Belgium
Marcello Morciano, Ruth Hancock,
Stephen Pudney
Gijs Dekkers
Marek Suchomel
Long term health projections
LT 3, CBE
HealthPaths – Using Health Trajectories to Estimate and Simulate the Relative Importance of
Determinants of Health Adjusted Life Expectancy (HALE)
Projecting long term care needs in Japan – Microsimulation modeling for super aged society
Michael Wolfson
Pension reform options and pensioners’ income positions in China – an analysis based on the (augmented)
OECD pension model
DYNOPTA-SIM: A dynamic microsimulation model of age-related disability among older Australians living
in the community
Xinmei Wang
Atsushi Koshio
Heather Booth
Spatial Microsimulation
LT 4, CBE
12:30pm
Microsimulation projections of small area populations with contextual geographic variables: an
application to the Montreal metropolitan area, 2006-2031
simSALUD – a Web-based spatial microsimulation application for creating synthetic microdata for small
areas
Spatial microsimulation in Forest Valuation
Guillaume Marois, Alain Belanger
Sequentially linking of the CGE, microsimulation and spatial microsimulation models with an illustrative
simulation: The decline in the Australian terms of trade and the distribution of income and poverty in small
geographical areas
Yogi Vidyattama, Maheshwar Rao, Robert
Tanton, Itismita Mohanty
Lunch, CBE Foyer
Melanie Tomintz, Bernhard Kosar,
Victor Garcia-Barrios
Cathal O'Donoghue
1:30pm
Modelling labour supply
LT 1, CBE
Finding an Approximation of “True Labour Income” for Indonesian Base File
Bimo Wijayanto
The impact of Hours of Work on the Labour Market Behaviour of Registered Nurses in New South Wales
Michelle Cunich
The relation between education and labour force participation of Aboriginal peoples: a simulation analysis
using the Demosim population projection model
Martin Spielauer
Poverty
LT 2, CBE
Income distribution, low income rates and income mobility for income periods of more than 1 year
Frederik Hansen
Projections of living arrangements and poverty rates for the elderly in Japan—Effect of changes in
nuptiality behavior after the 1980s on the poverty rate
Poverty Status of Older Americans: How You Measure It Matters
Seiichi Inagaki
Barbara Butrica, Howard Iams, Karen Smith
Environmental modelling
LT 3, CBE
A Household Spatial Microsimulation Model of Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Ireland
Cathal O'Donoghue
Constructing an Urban Microsimulation Model to Assess the Influence of Demographics on Heat
Consumption.
Simulating water bill reform scenarios in Flanders, Belgium – an ex-ante evaluation of distributional
effects of water pricing schemes for Flemish households.
Producing and validating small area estimates of inequalities in household electricity demand for England
Marcelo Munoz Hidalgo, Irene Peters
Josefine Vanhille
Ben Anderson
Family and demographics
LT 4, CBE
3:00pm
Demo4: Sustaincity’s demographic model
Kinship modelling – who will care for me when I’m 64?
Lorenzo Turci, Sophie Pennec, Elisabeth
Morand, Laurent Toulemon
Heather Booth
The Impact of Rising Sex Ratio at Birth on Kinship Structure
Zhongwei Zhao
PADIS Microsimulation Model and its application in perfecting family planning policy
Xuying Zhang, Zhou Chen, Kuangshi Huang
Afternoon tea, CBE Foyer
3:30pm
Copland LT
6:00pm
International Microsimulation Association AGM
Conference Dinner, National Museum of Australia (including museum tour)
Bus departs CBE at 5:30pm
Speaker: Andrew Leigh MP
Friday, 13th December
8:30am
Registration, tea and coffee, CBE Foyer
9.00am
Copland LT
Special Panel: Microsimulation on the Web,
How to publish a simple or complex microsimulation model on the web in 15 minutes
FLEMOSI: EUROMOD Online
HouseMOD on the web
10:30am
Morning tea
11:00am
LT 1, CBE
Special session: Health microsimulation in Australia
A microsimulation model of the economic burden of premature mortality in Australia
Long term economic impacts of ill health on older working aged Australian population and the Australian
government: Results from a microsimulation model Health&WealthMOD2030.
Health&WealthMOD2030: A microsimulation model of projected economic impacts of ill health leading to
early retirement
Steve Gribble, Susan Leroux
Andre Decoster and Gerlinde Verbist
Ben Phillips
Hannah Carter, Deborah Schofield,
Rupendra Shrestha
Deborah Schofield, Rupendra Shrestha,
Megan Passey, Michelle Cunich, Simon
Kelly, Lennert Veerman, Robert Tanton,
Theo Vos, Emily Callander
Rupendra Shrestha, Deborah Schofield,
Simon Kelly, Megan Passey, Lennert
Veerman, Robert Tanton, Theo Vos,
Emily Callander, Michelle Cunich
A microsimulation chronic disease model-system for Australia: what can we learn from its development and
its policy relevant applications?
Agnes Walker, James Butler, Stephen
Colagiuri
Taxes, transfers and labour supply
LT 2, CBE
Microsimulation modelling in the Australian Treasury
Susie Kluth
Luxembourg tax benefit system: LUXTAXBEN
Lennart Flood, Nizamul Islam
The redistributive effects of Personal Income Tax reforms during the Great Recession in Spain
Olga Canto
Simulations of tax-free transfers in FASIT
Klas Lindström, Annica Wallerå, Tom
Nilstierna
Microsimulation methodology
LT 3, CBE
New validation tools for spatial microsimulation models with convidence interval estimations
Azizur Rahman
SBAM: An algorithm for pair matching
Tobias Markeprand, Peter Stephensen
Synthetic baseline data for household microsimulation models for Australia and New Zealand
Richard Cumpston
12:30pm
Lunch
1:30pm
LT 1, CBE
Youth and working age poverty
Child poverty and child related policies: A comparison of Romania and Czech Republic
Silvia Avram; University of Essex
Can further trade liberalization reduce poverty in Fiji? Evidence from Computable General Equilibrium –
Microsimulation Analysis
Evidence-Based Policymaking (EBP): A Call for a National Research Agenda Based on the South African
Microsimulation Model (SAMOD)
Neelesh Gounder; Griffith University
Mulugeta Dinbabo; University of the
Western Cape
Methodological issues in health
LT 2, CBE
Uncertainty Analysis in Complex Microsimulation Models – A case study using the Cancer Risk Management
Model
Whole-model parameter estimation and integrated sensitivity analysis – an illustration using the HPVMM
infectious disease microsimulation model
Uncertainty Analysis in Population-Based Disease Simulation Models: An Approach Based on Analysis of
Variance
Michael Wolfson, Steve Gribble, Claude
Nadeau
Steve Gribble, Keiko Asakawa
Behnam Sharif, Hubert Wong; Philippe
Fines, William Flanagan, Deirdre
Hennessy, Aslam Anis, Jacek Kopec
The Prospects of the Baby Boomers: Methodological Challenges in Projecting the Lives of an Aging Cohort
Anika Rasner, Christian Westermeier,
Markus Grabka
Pension modelling in Europe
LT 3, CBE
DYPES: A Microsimulation model for the Spanish retirement pension system
A dynamic microsimulation model for the Austrian pension system
Concepción Patxot, Meritxell Sole,
Guadalupe Souto
Natasa Kump, Boris Majcen, Joze Sambt,
Alesa Lotric Dolinar
Marcus Wurzer
Dynamic microsimulation model of the Czech pension system
Jakub Rada
Development of a dynamic pension microsimulation model for Slovenia – DYPENSI
3:00pm
Afternoon tea, CBE Foyer
3:30pm
Conference close, Cathal O'Donoghue, Copland LT