Date 04-06-2010 FACTS & FIGURES
El Niño / La Niña
El Niño faded more rapidly than expected and is
probably giving way to La Niña conditions in the further
course of the year.
According to the latest weekly report of the Climate
Prediction Center on June 1, sea surface temperatures
are decreasing across large parts of the Pacific Ocean
and have recently been below average in some parts.
While some forecasting models still predict neutral
conditions, there is a growing possibility of La Niña
developing during the second half of 2010.
The warm event that had still characterized El Niño
conditions with above-normal sea surface temperatures
in the Pacific Ocean in late March almost completely
disappeared in May and is now turning into a
cold event with water temperatures of 0.5°C below
average, primarily in the eastern half of the Pacific.
Following the more rapid than expected end of El
Niño, most forecasting models indicate about neutral
conditions until early 2011. A growing number of
models points to the possibility of a transition to La
Niña conditions during July/Aug or Sept/Oct, implying
water temperatures of more than 0.5°C below normal.
Impact: La Niña and the colder than normal water
are considered beneficial for the development of the
pelagic biomass along the western coast of South
America. Production of fish oil and meal in Peru &
Chile should benefit from La Niña because it favours
the growth of anchovies and is normally associated
with the best catch results.
La Niña tends to cause higher than normal precipitation
in South America in Dec/Febr, primarily in
northern Brazil. In North America, La Niña generally
raises the likelihood of below-normal rainfall in key
growing areas in summer when it develops before
August.