Vulnerability Analysis and AssessmentSystem of Natural Disaster
Jiang Shen1, Jing Huang1, Tao Li1, Man Xu2*
1College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin, P. R. China
2TEDA College, Nankai University
(*xum@tedamail.nankai.edu.cn)
Abstract - With regard to the overall vulnerability of the
complex natural disaster system, correlation of disasterinducing factors, disaster environment and disaster bearing
objects was analyzed, natural disaster forming efficiency was
simulated, and vulnerability mechanism of natural disaster
was researched using disaster-inducing factor-vulnerability
chain and vulnerability curves. Assessment decision-making
model of natural disaster vulnerability was built. Through
constructing three index systems, natural disaster
vulnerability was assessed by disaster risk degree,
vulnerability of disaster bearing objects and risk loss degree.
The frequent occurrence of natural disasters and
serious effects of secondary disasters caused the focus of
the overall vulnerability of complex systems of natural
disasters. In the large complex system, the more complex
the system, the more obvious vulnerability to natural
disasters. Coupled with the dispersion of the system, it
was a must from an overall perspective to assess the
vulnerability of natural disasters.
Keywords - Natural Disaster, Vulnerability, Disaster
Risk Degree, Risk Loss Degree
II. RESEARCHSTATUS OF NATURALDISASTER
VULNERABILITY
I. INTRODUCTION
According to the research of Marco Janssen[1],
vulnerability appeared 939 times in 2286 authoritative
publications in the past 30 years, especially in natural
disaster emergency management research and government
documents, attracting researchers and policy makers’
concern. In natural disaster research, natural disaster
vulnerability was defined as factors decided by nature,
society, economy, environment, enhancing community
sensitivity facing disaster. From the disaster point of view,
vulnerability referred to characteristics easy to be
damaged or injured by natural disasters, reflecting the
affordability of various types of disasters. Various
characteristics and performances of natural disaster
vulnerability were shown in Table I.
TABLEI.
CHARACTERISTICSANDPERFORMANCEAOF
NATURALDISASTERVULNERABILITY
Characteristics
Numerous types
Wide range
High Probability
Long duration
Concurrent
Significant chain
Reaction
Severe damage
performances
A total of seven categories, 20 kinds, including
rainstorm and flood, drought, tropical cyclone,
frost, hail, fog, sandstorms and so on.
Occurred throughout the year, in the mountain,
plains, plateau, island, river, lake, sea and air.
Drought, floods and typhoons, and other disasters
occurred every year.
The same disaster often occurred quarter after
quarter, year after year.
Some disasters occurred in the same period, such
as thunderstorm, hail, high wind, tornado were
often a concurrent phenomenon.
Weather and climate conditions were often able to
cause or worsen floods, landslide,and plant pests
and so on.
121.3 million people were killed from 1947 to
1980, caused by natural disasters according to
United Nations announcement.
Global disaster research program had a major impact
on disaster risk assessment index system, such as Disaster
Risk Index(DRI) scheme, the world first global scale
human vulnerability assessment index system with spatial
resolution to the countries. Domestic scholars focused on
single disaster with risk assessment system based on
index.
1) Natural disaster risk assessment
The Disaster Risk Hotspots Plan by Columbia
University and ProVention Union established three risk
assessment indexes and disaster risk maps of hazardprone areas[2]. European Spatial Planning Observation
Network elaborated multiple risk assessment index
methods on the potential risk of a particular area[3]. The
U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency and
National Institute of Building Sciences developed the
HAZUS model, a standardized national multi-hazard loss
estimation method.
2) Vulnerability assessment
Vulnerability analysis methods were mainly two
ways: the index system and the vulnerability curve. Index
system method, constructed the model through index
optimization, weight assignment, and assessment result of
a single disaster or multi-disasterwas a relative value
more applicable in the lack of quantitative parameters or
data limited circumstances, such as the pressure release
model[4], the vulnerability model[5]. The disadvantage of
rough assessment results and poor operability could be
solved by vulnerability curve[6], such as the ANUFLOOD
model developed by Australian Resources and
Environment Research Center[7].
III. NATURALDISASTER
VULNERABILITYMECHANISMS
Natural disaster vulnerability mechanism was an
input-output of operational efficiency analysis model of a
complex giant system. In the process of natural disasters,
disasters were the run results of a regional disaster
system, also an input - output system. The formation of
disasters as output factors could be regarded as the
working result of a regional disaster system as an input
factors, including disaster-inducing factors, disaster
environment and disaster bearing objects, and natural
disaster vulnerability was the level of disasters forming
efficiency. The greater the vulnerability, the higher the
disaster efficiency, and the easier to form a serious
disaster.
Through collecting the relative data of basic
information of the regional context of natural disasters
and disaster bearing objects, characteristic information of
risk factors, vulnerability information and historical
disaster information, based on the analysis method of
historical disaster, index system and vulnerability curve,
natural disaster risk sources were identified and the
refined three dimensional natural disaster vulnerability
mechanism model of was constructed as Fig.1.
spatial overlapping
Disaster forming
efficiency
Input
Disasterinducing
factors
Vulnerability
Disaster
environment
Interaction
de
x
sy
st
em
Disaster
bearing
objects
In
Output
Simulation
Disaster
regularityand threshold could be the modeled, such as the
regularity of the vulnerability of mechanism model in
three dimensions of natural disasters and vulnerability
curve analysis, such as intensity-loss curve, strength-loss
rate curve and intensity- per unit area curve.
IV. ASSESSMENT DECIAION-MAKING MODEL OF
NATURALDISASTER VULNERABILITY
Assessment decision-making model of natural
disaster vulnerability was constructed according to the
requirements, guidelines, targets and layers of the disaster
loss assessment, comprehensive index system. For the
main features of the major natural disasters, an assessment
index system of natural disaster risk was established,
including the target layer, rule layer and scheme layer.
Assessment of disaster risk degree, vulnerability of
disaster bearing objects and risk loss degree were
included in index system of natural disaster risk. In
disaster risk degree assessment, the natural properties of
the natural disasters were set as the basic starting point,
and the intensity and the likelihood of risk factors were
determined by analyzing the past frequency and intensity
of risk factors. Vulnerability of disaster bearing objects,
the loss tendency faced with natural disaster risk, was
determined by sensitive natural, social, economic and
environmental factors and interaction. Risk loss
assessment evaluated the disaster loss in a certain risk.
The details included the following three assessment index
systems.
Time
Risk degree assessment index
system of Major natural disasters
Vulnerability assessment index
system of disaster bearing object
Assessment index system of
natural disaster risk loss degree
Fig.1Three dimensional natural disastervulnerability mechanism model
1) Disaster-inducing factor-vulnerability chain
Through analyzing the internal and kinetic
characteristics of the natural disaster risk bearing objects
(population,
community,
region,
infrastructure,
environment, etc.), the expected loss under disasters was
determined, and the regularity of natural disaster
vulnerability was described using disaster-inducing
factor-vulnerability chain.
2) Regularity model and threshold of vulnerability
In order to improve the accuracy of risk assessment,
whether disaster bearing objects were in disasters and
disaster characteristics were specific and visual using
scenario simulation method to simulate disaster scenarios
and
optimize
exposure
factors.
Vulnerability
A.Risk degree assessment index system of natural disaster
According to risk degree assessments and indexes of
main meteorological disasters, geological disasters, pests
and disease disasters, risk degree assessment index system
of natural disasters was constructed based on historical
data for disasters combining each disaster with
corresponding disaster bearing object types, considering
the disaster intensity, the disaster probability of and
environmental conditions.
1) Disaster intensity (G) assessment
G was determined by the variability degree of natural
factors (such as the magnitude degree, the size of wind,
temperature or precipitation anomaly degree) or attribute
index of natural disasters’ influence(such as seismic
intensity, flood intensity).
2) Disaster Probability (P) assessment
P was determined by the natural disaster occurrence
number of the intensity in a certain period, represented by
probability or frequency.
Assessment decision-making Index system of
natural disaster vulnerability
Startup
Natural disasters
risk degree assessment
combination
type Of
disasterinducing
factor,
major
factors
identification
Basic
geographic
data
Realtime
sensing
monitoring
data
Element
abnormality
analysis
（occurrence
time
anomalous
amplitude
duration）
Disaster
intensity( Gij )
Disaster
Probability( Pij )
Risk degree assessment （H）
FuzzySettheory
Target
Scope Definition
Bayesian
Network
Assessment
Cluster Analysis
Data
collection
Observation,
monitoring,
forecasting,
data of
geographic
environmental
factors
Disaster bearing
objects Vulnerability assessment
Risk degree assessment （H）
geographical distribution
Dynamic
socio
econo
mic
data
Disaster
bearing
objects
types
Historical
disaster
data
Antirisk
attribute
data
Economic level,
social
development,
emergency
management
People
Property
Ecology
Classification
statistics
Exposure （ V）
e
Sensitivity
to
disasters
（Vs）
Risk loss
degree assessment
Disaster
formation
process,
mechanism or
model: physical,
statistics,
experimental,
empirical model
Special disaster
prediction ,
prevention
capability
Basic
disaster
response
capacity
（ Vd 1）
Special
disaster
response
capacity
（ Vd2 ）
Disaster bearing
objects developments
forecasts (including
future design of antirisk properties, etc.)
or scenario
Comprehensive risk
preventive measures
Comprehensive risk loss
（R）
absolute number
relative degree
Comprehensive judgment
Disaster
response
capacity（Vd）
Disaster bearing objects vulnerability(V)
geographical distribution
Classified risk loss
（ Rij）
Risk loss geographical
distribution
Fig.2Assessment decision-making model of natural disaster vulnerability
B. Vulnerability assessment index system of disaster
bearing objects
Considering previous disasters and future trend,
associated with social and economic and disaster statistics
system, vulnerability of disaster bearing objects was
assessed from physical exposure, sensitivity to disasters
and socio-economic and cultural disaster response
capacity in favor of national, regional and community
development strategy and mitigation decision-making
principles.
1) Physical exposure (Ve) assessment
Ve indexes wasdivided into quantitative and value
types based on specific types and characteristics of
disaster bearing objects. The assessment process was:
Step 1: fix the minimum assessment unit.
Step 2: determine the number of disaster bearing
objects in each minimum assessment unit.
Step 3: set the influencesphere of disaster bearing
objects.
Step 4: assess the physical exposure.
2) Sensitivity to disasters (Vs)assessment
In view of the numerous disaster bearing object
types, disaster bearing objects were mainly divided into
population, housing, crops, livestock, and the road
systems for the assessment of sensitivity to disasters.
3) Regional disaster response capacity (Vd )
assessment
Vd assessment consisted of basic disaster response
capacity index (human index, financial index and material
resources index) and special disaster response capacity
index (disaster prediction capability index, engineering
disaster response capacity).
C. Assessment index system of Regional natural disaster
risk loss degree
1) Risk loss assessment methods of single disaster
Adopting the analogy of historical scenarios,
physical simulation and experimental method and expert
scoring, disaster bearing objects were classified as
demographic, economic property and ecological systems
to do population risk assessment, disaster risk assessment
of property loss and ecosystem loss degree assessment
under specific disaster.
2) Risk loss assessment methods of Multi-disaster
On the basis of risk loss assessment of single
disaster, considering regional development, personal
safety and property security of residents, different natural
disasters of different power sources and characteristics
were set in a regional system. The assessment was divided
into two levels. The first level was independent multidisaster risk loss assessment of the three types of disaster
bearing objects based on the assessment of the risk of loss
considering risk loss and grade assessment. The second
level wasintegrated assessment of the three types of
bearing risk body based on the integration of assessment
of the risk.
V. CONCLUSION
Certain disaster situation was formed through the
interaction of disaster-inducing factors, disaster
environment and disaster bearing objects, and
vulnerability was to measure the disaster formation
efficiency. In the thesis, the natural disaster vulnerability
analysis method was put forward using vulnerability
theory to analyze the vulnerability mechanism of complex
natural disaster systems with consideration of
comprehensive natural disasters. The proposed
vulnerability assessment system could enrich the urban
disaster risk assessment system and disaster risk
management system, having important scientific
significance in risk emergency management with risk
prevention as the core, city's public safety, and the
sustainable development of cities.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
This paper is supported by National Natural Science
Foundation of China (Grant No.71171143), Tianjin
Research Program of Application Foundation and
Advanced Technology (Grant No.10JCYBJC07300), Key
Project of Science and Technology supporting program in
Tianjin (Grant No.09ECKFGX00600), and FOXCONN
Group.
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