WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION ___________________________________________ RA I TROPICAL CYCLONE COMMITTEE RA I/TCC-21/Doc. 6.5 (26.8.2015) ________ TWENTY-FIRST SESSION ITEM 6.5 ST. DENIS, LA REUNION 28 SEPTEMBER – 2 OCTOBER 2015 Original: ENGLISH REVIEW OF THE TECHNICAL PLAN AND ITS IMPLEMENTATION PROGRAMME Research Component (Submitted by the Secretariat) SUMMARY AND PURPOSE OF DOCUMENT This document provides the session with information on the recent activities of the World Weather Research Programme in particular its Working Group on Tropical Meteorology Research, which is of particular relevance to the research component of the RA I Tropical Cyclone Committee. ACTION PROPOSED The Committee is invited to review the information to be presented by the WMO representative at this session and make proposals and recommendations concerning future research activities as amendments and/or additions to the draft text attached to this document. ___________________ References: 1. WMO Strategic Plan (2012-2015) WMO-No. 1069 and WMO Operating Plan Updated Programme Activities Planned and Funded for Implementation (2014-2015) 2. Strategic Plan for the Implementation of WMO’s World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) (2009-2017) (WMO/TD No. 1505) (WWRP 2009-2) Appendix: Draft text for inclusion in the report of the session RA I/TCC-21/Doc. 6.5, p. 2 DRAFT TEXT FOR INCLUSION IN THE DRAFT REPORT OF THE TWENTY FIRST SESSION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COMMITTEE 7.5 Research 7.5.1 The Committee noted that Congress during its last session (Geneva, May-June 2015) urged WMO Members to actively engage and support three major WWRP research projects based on the THORPEX experience namely: ‘polar prediction project’ (PPP), ‘subseasonal to seasonal’ project (S2S) and ‘high-impact weather’ project (HIWeather), aligned to the needs of Members as reflected through the WMO strategic priorities and supported through voluntary contributions. The WWRP Working Group on Tropical Meteorology Research is actively involved in two of the three above-mentioned THORPEX Legacy Projects (i.e.S2S and HIWeather). 7.5.2 The Committee was pleased to note that the Working Group on Tropical Meteorology Research (WGTMR) is coordinating with the Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP) and the Typhoon Committee on how best to integrate the recently approved project: “Experiment on Typhoon Intensity Change in the Coastal area (EXOTICA) with the on-going WWRP project: Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (TLFDP). EXOTICA aim to improve the operational analysis and forecasting techniques of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity, understanding of the mechanisms of TC intensity and structural changes, and identifying key scientific issues of TC related disaster prevention and mitigation. Plans are to invite proponents of the EXOTICA project to a TLFDP workshop tentatively scheduled in December this year. 7.5.3 The Committee noted that three WWRP/WGTMR research projects on tropical cyclones are currently ongoing: a) NWPacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Project (NWP-TCEFP) for Typhoon Committee members (2009-2015) (Lead: Japan Meteorological Agency) b) Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (TLFDP) (2010-2018) (Lead: Eastern China Regional Meteorological Center/CMA) c) Understanding and Prediction of Rainfall Associated with Landfalling Tropical Cyclones (UPDRAFT) (2015-2020) (Lead: CMA and Nanjing University) 7.5.4 The Committee noted the ongoing research projects on tropical cyclones and encouraged RA I TCC Members to identify and develop similar projects with a view to further improving operational weather and related environmental services and thereby meet the needs and requirements of tropical cyclone affected countries in Africa. These research projects are of utmost importance especially in light of the recent increase in the frequency/severity of extreme weather events indicating increasing threat to lives and property especially to developing countries. 7.5.5 The Eighth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VIII) and Third International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes (IWTCLP-III) was successfully held in Jeju Island of the Republic of Korea from 2-10 December 2014). A total of 214 tropical cyclone experts, mostly from Members of the five tropical cyclone regional bodies, participated in the two workshops. Three RA I TCC Members (France, Madagascar and Mauritius) were represented in last year’s workshop. As in past workshops, discussions between the forecasters and researchers resulted in a number of recommendations addressed to WMO, Tropical Cyclone Forecasters and the Research Community on needed actions with the goal of improving tropical cyclone forecasting and warning systems and reducing the associated risk and damages caused by tropical cyclones. One such recommendation was for WMO to consider new topics for future workshops such as those dealing with societal impacts for the advancement of the Total Warning RA I/TCC-21/Doc. 6.5, p. 3 System concept and for the sharing of relevant experiences. 7.5.6 The Committee noted with appreciation that WWRP is placing special emphasis on advancing better predictions of high impact weather events on wider time ranges, from nowcasting to seasonal time scale, as the socio-economic effects of these events remain of central importance to Members. In line with this endeavor, the Committee also noted that the Programme is working on improving the interaction between Universities/Research Institutes and NMHSs in order to advance the understanding of the processes behind extreme events and to facilitate the development of new forecast tools and methods including those related to tropical cyclones. 7.5.7 The Committee was pleased to note the success of the Workshop on Communicating Risk and Uncertainty organized by the WWRP Working Group on Societal and Economic Research Applications (WG SERA) held in Melbourne in July 2012. The workshop provided a forum for a research discussion concerning the effective communication of uncertainty and risk in weather and warning messages. Building on the success of this workshop for the Australasian region, plans are to organize similar events in other regions. 7.5.8 The 3rd Monsoon Heavy Rainfall Workshop was held in New Delhi India from 22 to 24 September 2015. Organized by WGTMR’s Monsoon Panel, chaired by Professor CP Chang, the 3-day workshop presented and discussed recent research results on the observation, modelling and prediction of heavy rainfall in the monsoon region with special focus on heavy rainfall associated with tropical cyclone events. The workshop also provided a half-day training session to a select group of NMHS forecasters from monsoon affected countries. The oral session include invited lectures and selected contributed papers. A session during the workshop was dedicated to presentations on the status of the WWRP’s international field and modelling project: Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (SCMREX).