Correction notice
doi:10.1038/nrneurol.2015.81
Risk prediction models in dementia prevention
Alina Solomon and Hilkka Soininen
In the version of this supplementary file originally posted online, frailty variables for the FI-NTRF study were incorrect. The
error has been corrected in this file as of 30th June 2015.
Supplementary Table 1. Brief summary of characteristics and predictive performance for available dementia risk scores
Risk score
Population
Mean age
(years)
Follow-up
(years)
50
20
AUC or
Factors
C statistic
Midlife CAIDE Dementia Risk Score
Lancet Neurol 2006;5:735–411
Finnish
Alzheimers Dement 2014;10:562–5702
PLoS One 2014;9(1):e861413
Age, sex, education, SBP, BMI, total cholesterol
0.75
USA
80
3.5
Age, sex, education, SBP, BMI, total cholesterol, physical activity
0.49
Swedish
81
6
Age, sex, education, SBP, BMI, physical activity
0.54
USA
72
6
Age, sex, education, SBP, BMI, total cholesterol, physical activity
0.57
USA
76
6
Age, cognition (3MS, DSST), BMI, APOE ε4, MRI findings (WML, enlarged
ventricles), internal carotid artery thickness, coronary bypass surgery, time to put
on and button shirt, alcohol
0.81
USA
76
6
Age, cognition (MMSE recall, 3-step command, figure copying; verbal fluency –
animal naming), self-reported ‘trouble keeping mind on things’(CES-D scale item),
stroke, peripheral artery disease, coronary artery bypass surgery, BMI, alcohol
0.77
USA
80
3.5
Age, sex, education, diabetes, TBI, cognitive activities, social network, smoking,
alcohol, physical activity
0.72
Swedish
81
6
Age, sex, education, diabetes, TBI, social network, smoking, alcohol
0.65
USA
72
6
Age, sex, education, diabetes, smoking, alcohol, physical activity, fish intake,
depression symptoms
0.73
USA
71
10
Age, education, microvascular disease, diabetic foot, cerebrovascular disease,
cardiovascular disease, acute metabolic event, depression
0.74
Swedish
70
10
Dizziness when suddenly standing up, calf pain while walking, chest pain,
abnormal heart sound, aortic calcification, pulmonary congestion, EKG findings,
0.74
Alzheimers Dement 2010;6:138–1415
3
Dementia risk score in type 2 diabetes
Vascular risk factor index
0.78
36
Brief Late-life Dementia Risk Index
Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol 2013;1:183–90
Age, sex, education, SBP, BMI, total cholesterol, physical activity, APOE ε4
46
Neurology 2009;73:173–1794
PLoS One 2014;9(1):e86141
0.77
USA
Late-life Dementia Risk Index
Australian National University AD Risk
Index (ANU-ADRI)
Age, sex, education, SBP, BMI, total cholesterol, physical activity
6
Eur J Neurol 2006;13(5):514-27
diabetes, hypertension, angina, BMI, cholesterol
Swedish
70
20
USA
73
6
Brief dementia indicator for primary care
USA
72
6
Alzheimers Dement 2014;10:656–6658
USA
71
6
USA
71
6
5
FI-NTRF
(Frailty index – nontraditional risk factors)
Neurology 2011;77:227–2349
Canadian
65+
10
Sex, calf pain while walking, chest pain, aortic calcification, pulmonary congestion,
EKG findings, BMI, cholesterol
0.67
0.68
Age, education, BMI, diabetes, stroke, needs help handling money/medication,
depressive symptoms
0.77
0.76
0.78
19 frailty variables (self-rated health, problems with eyesight, hearing, denture fit,
stomach, kidneys, respiratory function, skin, bladder & bowel control, orthopaedic
problems, and others)
Published dementia risk scores were selected according to the following criteria: longitudinal studies with dementia as outcome, risk models including multiple health-related variables, and
reporting AUC or C statistic. Studies focusing on risk estimation in patients with MCI, or on cognitive tests, neuroimaging or cerebrospinal fluid measurements without health-related variables,
were not included here. Abbreviations: 3MS, Modified MMSE; AUC, area under the curve; APOE, apolipoprotein E gene; CAIDE, Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging and Dementia study;
CES-D, Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression Scale; DSST, Digit Symbol Substitution; EKG, electrocardiogram; MMSE, Mini-Mental State Examination; SBP, systolic blood pressure;
TBI, traumatic brain injury; WML, white matter lesions.
References
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Dement. 2014;10(5):562-70
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0.64
0.66
10. Song X, Mitnitski A, Rockwood K. Nontraditional risk factors combine to predict Alzheimer disease and dementia. Neurology. 2011;77(3):227-34