EGP EVIDENCE 2011 PEOPLE (draft) Strategic Housing & Economic Development Wakefield Council 8 July 2011 PEOPLE Key Messages from Evidence Wakefield’s population is projected to continue growing, with increased life expectancy being the dominant component of change over the next 20 years. The working age population is set to increase and future changes to the State Pension age will extend the working lives of many residents. Over the last seven years, growth in the pension age population has been greater than the regional growth rates. Yet, when other age groups are considered, overall population growth has been slow (just 2.2% compared to 6.1% growth across the Leeds City Region as a whole). As elsewhere, the ageing population is increasing the income-transfer requirements that post-retirement groups place upon the labour force (the old-age dependency ratio). Presently, the ratio in Wakefield is around the regional average. Wakefield has a smaller than average proportion of people in the late teen to early 20s age band which reflects an absence of a sizeable university presence in the district. In large university cities such as Leeds, for example, increased participation in higher education has created a population where 17.5% of people are aged 16-24, compared to 11.3% in Wakefield. The expansion of the European Union in 2004 produced an increase in economic migrants coming to Wakefield, although numbers of new arrivals have fallen back since peaking in 2006. Migrants have tended to be young, single people planning to stay for a relatively short time. The majority have found low-skilled, low-paid employment in warehouses and distribution centres. The academic qualification levels of the District’s population are highest among the younger age groups and lowest among older age groups. This pattern is common nationally, but at the time of the 2001 census, all age groups in the district had lower qualification profiles than the national average. For the middle and older age groups, low academic attainment in part reflects the low demand for qualifications made by the primary and secondary industries that were prevalent in the past. Surveys show that around 17% of employers report having staff not fully skilled for their role. This is in line with the regional average. As the service sector now accounts for an increasing share of Wakefield jobs, there is a demand for a more highly qualified and skilled workforce. There has been recent growth in jobs for managers and senior officials within Wakefield, but there is evidence to suggest that a relatively high proportion of these posts have been filled by people who live outside the district and commute in. The flows, however, are not unidirectional. At the time of the 2001 census, there was a net export of senior level employees during the daily commute. For young people at school, GCSE attainment has improved significantly in recent years. Pass rates are now better than the England average, but inequalities persist between children from poorer backgrounds, and the rest. The worklessness rate for Wakefield is the highest in West Yorkshire and above regional and national averages. Ill health is the key contributing factor, with more than half of the worklessness caseload made up of Employment Support Allowance (ESA)/Incapacity Benefit (IB) and disabled client groups. At 9.0% of working age population, the ESA/IB rate is the highest in the sub-region, second highest in the region and above the national average (6.8%). The single biggest reason for ESA/IB claiming is mental and behavioural disorders (37.5%), 2 although this proportion is below the national average (43.7%). The second biggest reason is problems association with joints and bones (22.3%), which is higher than the national average (16.9%). The economic downturn produced an increase in worklessness due primarily to the large increase in the number of JSA claimants. The medium-term rate is now falling again, with the number of JSA claimants falling by 3.9% during the 12 months to February 2011. Over the same period, however, the fall in JSA claimants regionally and nationally, was over 7%. Youth unemployment is a significant issue, with over 14.3% of those aged between 16 and 24 out of work and claiming benefits. This is significantly higher than the regional (11.3%) and national (10.5%) rates. Youth unemployment is exacerbated by low staying on (in education) rates and high levels of young people who are not in employment, education or training (NEETs). Over recent years, however, staying on rates have improved and NEET rates have declined, though levels remain high. 3 Table of Contents 1 Population ............................................................................................................................................. 5 2.1 3 4 5 6 Population Change .................................................................................................................... 6 Worklessness ........................................................................................................................................ 9 3.1 Impact of Recession ................................................................................................................ 11 3.2 Worklessness Characteristics .................................................................................................. 12 3.2.1 Job Seekers Allowance Claimants ....................................................................................... 12 3.2.1.1 Usual Occupation ................................................................................................................ 15 3.2.1.2 Claimant off flows - Reasons ............................................................................................... 16 3.2.2 Incapacity Benefit Claimants ............................................................................................... 17 3.2.3 Lone Parents ....................................................................................................................... 19 3.2.4 Young People ...................................................................................................................... 20 3.2.5 Older People ....................................................................................................................... 21 Earnings and Income ........................................................................................................................... 22 4.1 Average Earnings – Workplace Based ..................................................................................... 22 4.2 Average Earnings – Residence Based ...................................................................................... 23 4.3 Household Income .................................................................................................................. 25 Skills and Qualifications ...................................................................................................................... 26 5.1 Educational Attainment .......................................................................................................... 27 5.2 Further Education ................................................................................................................... 28 5.3 Not in Employment, Education or Training (NEET) ................................................................. 29 5.4 Higher Education ..................................................................................................................... 29 5.5 Adult Skills ............................................................................................................................... 31 5.6 Occupational Structure ........................................................................................................... 33 5.7 Skills Mismatch........................................................................................................................ 34 5.8 Future Demand ....................................................................................................................... 35 Deprivation ......................................................................................................................................... 37 6.1 Geography and Extent ............................................................................................................ 39 6.2 Theme ..................................................................................................................................... 40 7 Health .................................................................................................................................................. 41 8 Child Poverty ....................................................................................................................................... 42 9 References .......................................................................................................................................... 45 4 PEOPLE 1 Population In 2009 the resident population size of Wakefield District was estimated to be 323,900, making the district the 18th largest local authority in England and Wales. As is typical nationally, the Wakefield age profile reflects the larger birth cohorts of the 1950s and 1960s and greater numbers of women in older age than men. Numbers are projected to keep on increasing, albeit more slowly than elsewhere in the region, with improved life expectancy resulting in a greater proportion of the population being made up of people in older age groups (see outline in . Figure 1). What is different about Wakefield’s age profile when compared with many other metropolitan districts is the smaller than average proportions of people in the late-teen, early 20’s age bands. This reflects the absence of any sizeable university presence within Wakefield District. In large university cities such as Leeds, by contrast, increasing levels of participation in higher education over the last couple of decades have created a population where 17.5% of people are aged 1624, compared to 11.3% in Wakefield district. Figure 1 Wakefield has a relatively small ethnic minority population. The 2001 Census recorded that 96.7% of people identified themselves as White British, 1.4% of people described their ethnicity as Asian or Asian British and 1.1% described their ethnicity as White Irish or White Other. Estimates from 2007 (due to be revised) suggest that the proportion of the population not White British has grown from 3.3% (in 2001) to 5.9% of the total population1. (projection for 2033 outlined) female male 80 70 60 50 As people move around for work, leisure and shopping the size and geography of the population changes by time, day and season. The town centres also see increases in the daytime population as people travel in to shop, and the size and age structure of the visiting population changes again as numbers of younger people come into Wakefield, Pontefract and Castleford in the evening to socialise in bars, clubs and other leisure venues. 40 30 20 10 0 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 people aged 0-84 Other temporary or short-term visitors also affect the size population at different times. The Council runs a gypsy and traveller site that at the last count was home to 64 caravans. At the same time there were around another 60 caravans located elsewhere across the district, some with permission to camp and some without2. Economic migrants from the expanded European Union, particularly Poland, have also swelled the population since 2004, although the numbers of new arrivals have fallen in the last couple of years3. The size of the asylum seeker population has also fallen 1 Office for National Statistics (2007) Resident Population Estimates by Ethnic Group (experimental) Wakefield Council (2011) Bi-annual count of gypsy and traveller caravans. Unpublished data collected for the Department for Communities and Local Government 3 Local Government Association (2011) Workers Registration Scheme data 2 5 markedly in recent years, to just 120 people in December 2010, down from 565 people at the beginning of 2035. There are no areas within the district with age profiles very different from the norm. For example, with no sizeable university presence in the district there is no prominent ‘student quarter’. In some smaller areas, however, the age profile can be skewed by the presence of specific types of housing type and tenure. There are a number of centres where ethnic minority populations have tended to settle. A sizeable proportion of the South Asian population has settled in the Agbrigg area of Wakefield, south of the city centre, and also in College Grove, immediately north of Wakefield city centre. This has provided opportunities for businesses that offer goods and services tailored to the community’s preferences and needs. Recent economic migrants, principally from the countries that have recently joined the EU, are also living in these neighbourhoods, in part reflecting the availability of affordable private rented accommodation. In addition, some economic migrants have located themselves in the South East of the district, closer to certain employment opportunities. The extent to which the individuals living in an area change as a result of migration is referred to as population turnover, or area stability. Young people and young families are the most likely to move, either to live independently or to move to a larger home. Private renters also have higher migration rates. Despite some ‘conventional wisdoms’ regarding the impact of high population turnover research has shown there is only a very weak relationship between turnover and deprivation7. Summary measures of area dynamics show that the extent and nature of population turnover in Wakefield District is similar to the England average 2.1 Population Change Across the Leeds City Region (LCR) as a whole the Wakefield District population has grown by 6.1% since 2002. On average the working age population has grown by a similar amount as the retirement age population and there there has been a small reduction in the numbers of people aged 15 and under. Only Bradford has seen a growth in its child population. Table 1 Recent population growth in Wakefield lowest in the Leeds City Region Yorkshire & Humber Region Leeds City Region Leeds York UA Bradford Selby Calderdale Kirklees Harrogate Barnsley Craven Wakefield Population change mid-2002 to mid-2009 Older people Children Working age 65M/60F and All 0-15 16-64M/59F over People -3.6% 6.9% 8.7% 5.1% -2.0% 8.2% 7.9% 6.1% -5.1% 15.4% 4.0% 9.4% -2.2% 12.0% 9.0% 9.0% 4.9% 8.7% 3.6% 6.9% -3.1% 6.3% 19.4% 6.6% -1.2% 4.9% 9.5% 4.5% -0.7% 4.4% 8.9% 4.1% -2.4% 2.5% 14.5% 4.0% -3.4% 4.0% 9.2% 3.5% -7.9% 1.6% 15.9% 3.2% -6.6% 2.6% 11.0% 2.2% Source: ONS Mid Year Population Estimates 6 The overall population growth in Wakefield has been the lowest of all the LCR local authorities (Table 1) and the growth in Wakefield’s working age population has been low compared to the growth in the retirement age population. Elsewhere within the LCR some of the working age population growth reflects growth in the university places. For example, between 2002/03 and 2008/09 there has been a 16% growth in full-time student numbers across Bradford University, University of Leeds, Leeds Metropolitan University and University of York, combined. In the current public finance climate it seems unlikely that this growth in university places will be sustained but it highlights a key difference between Wakefield and elsewhere. The different population growth patterns have also produced variations in changes to the oldage dependency ratios (Table 2 ). These ratios reflect the relationship between the 16 to State Pension Age (SPA) population and SPA population and indicate the income-transfer requirements that post-retirement age groups place upon the labour force. Ratios will be deflected downward over the next few years by the phased changes to women’s SPA but increased life expectancy will cancel this effect and create net increases in the ratio for some time to come. Table 2 Old-Age Dependency Ratios in the Leeds City Region Yorkshire & Humberside Leeds City Region Bradford Calderdale Kirklees Leeds Wakefield Barnsley Craven Harrogate Selby York UA Old-age Dependency Ratio MidMid%-point 2002 2009 change 30.4% 31.0% +0.5% 29.0% 28.9% -0.1% 27.3% 26.0% -1.3% 29.5% 30.8% +1.3% 27.6% 28.7% +1.2% 27.9% 25.2% -2.8% 29.2% 31.7% +2.4% 31.0% 32.5% +1.6% 40.6% 46.3% +5.7% 33.8% 37.7% +4.0% 28.2% 31.6% +3.5% 30.6% 29.8% -0.8% The latest projections suggest that Wakefield’s population will continue to grow and to age8. The older population is forecast to increase by around 2% per year until around 2030 when mortality among the last of the baby-boom population will slow the increases down (Figure 2). Forecasts suggest year-on-year increases in the young population over the next decade. The working age population will see an increase as births over the next decade filter through from 2028 onwards. The working age population will also increase as a result of changes to SPA, although this is not included in this chart. 7 Figure 2 Projected Annual Change in Population Size from 2008 by Age Band 0-15 3.0% 16-60F/65M 60F/65M + 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2032 2030 2028 2026 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 -0.5% Source: 2008-based Subnational Population Projections, ONS By 2018 it is estimated there will be an additional 18,200 people living in the district – an increase of 6% from the 2008 position. By 2028 it is estimated there will be an additional 39,300 people living in the district compared to 2008. The estimates suggest that this increase to 2028 will comprise 3,700 more people aged 0-15 years (+6.1%); 4,200 more people of working age (+2.1%); and 31,500 more people older than (the current) State Pension Age (SPA) (+50.6%). The expansion of the European Union in 2004 produced an increase in economic migrants coming to Wakefield. The majority of these migrants have come from Poland, with smaller numbers from Slovakia and Latvia and the other A10 countries. The migrants have tended to be young, single people planning to stay for a relatively short time. The majority of workers have found low-skilled, low-paid employment in warehouses and distribution centres. Employment agencies have played an active role in developing this labour market. Data from the Home Office Workers Registration Scheme (WRS) show the trend in application approvals (Figure 3). There is very little data on leavers, so the real size of the economic migrant community is unknown. Numbers of applications have fallen steadily over the last few years, both in Wakefield and across the region as a whole. Seasonal increases often occur in summer and autumn. Figure 3 WRS Registrations Wakefield 1,400 7,000 Y&H Region 6,000 5,000 1,000 4,000 800 Y&H Applications Wakefield Applications 1,200 3,000 600 2,000 400 1,000 200 0 - Q3 10 Q2 10 Q1 10 Q4 09 Q3 09 Q2 09 Q1 09 Q4 08 Q3 08 Q2 08 Q1 08 Q4 07 Q3 07 Q2 07 Q1 07 Q4 06 Q3 06 Q2 06 S Source: Home Office Border & Immigration Agency (LGAR) 8 3 Worklessness Worklessness is the general term describing people who experience significant barriers whether it be ill-health, low skills or low motivation which prevent them from working. Working age people claiming out of work benefits are frequently used as a measure of worklessness. These figures are an underestimate as there are workless people who do not receive benefits. However the figures do offer timely and reliable intelligence on local trends and comparisons to other areas. Defining Worklessness The IDeA practitioner’s guide for producing work and skills plans offers the following description for measuring and defining worklessness: ‘Worklessness’ is a less familiar term than ‘unemployment’ to describe those without work, and is used to describe all those who are out of work but who would like a job. It has become more popular because common definitions of unemployment miss out important groups of people who are not working but who would like to. There is no single data source that captures the above in its entirety and for the purpose of this report, the ‘key out-of-work benefits’ figure defined by the DWP will be used as the overall measure of worklessness. This includes JSA, ESA/Incapacity Benefit, Lone Parents and others on income related benefits. Data in this briefing are based on working age benefit data supplied by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) client group data sets and provide a quarterly snapshot of benefit claimants at particular points in time. The dataset gives counts of benefit claimants categorised by their statistical group (their main reason for interacting with the benefit system), gender and age. Claimants may be claiming more than one benefit but are assigned to one of the following statistical groups, in the following priority order: Job Seekers Jobseekers’ Allowance claimants. Employment Support Allowance/Incapacity Benefits (ESA/IB) Employment Support Allowance, Incapacity Benefit or Severe Disablement Allowance claimants. Lone Parent Income Support claimants with a child under 16 and no partner. Others on Income Related Benefit Other Income Support (including IS Disability premium) or Pension Credit claimants under State Pension age. Benefits are arranged hierarchically and claimants are assigned to the highest statistical group that they belong to. Thus a person who claims Income Support as a Lone Parent and also receives Incapacity Benefit would be classified into ‘incapacity benefits’ group. It needs to be noted that some data sets are more up-to-date that others. Job Seekers Allowance claimant count is updated on a monthly basis but incapacity benefit numbers are released quarterly and has a much larger delay before publication. 9 Scale of Worklessness In August 2009, 31,640 Wakefield residents were claiming key out of work benefits, equating to 15.0% of the working age population. This is higher than the regional (13.1%) and national (12.3%) averages. The Wakefield worklessness rate is the joint second highest in the Leeds City Region. Figure 4 Worklessness Rates by Client Group, Wakefield District compared against the Regional, Leeds City Region and National rates, August 2010 % working age population 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Wakefield Y&H LCR GB others 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 lone parent 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 ESA & IB 9.0 6.8 6.7 6.7 job seekers 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.5 Source: ONS (NOMIS) The Wakefield worklessness rate is the joint second highest in the Leeds City Region Figures for August 2010 show that ill health is a major cause of worklessness in the district with 60% of the workless population claiming Employment Support Allowance or an Incapacity Benefit, which is considerably higher than the regional (54%) and national (52%) averages. This equates to 9% of the working population and is the second highest rate in the Leeds City Region. % working age population Figure 5 Worklessness Rate by Client Groups, Leeds City Region LADs, August 2010 20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 others Barnsl Wake Bradf Calde Kirkle Leeds Selby ey field ord rdale es York Crave Harro n gate 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 lone parent 2.0 1.8 2.2 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 ESA & IB 10.8 9.0 7.6 6.8 6.7 5.7 4.3 3.9 4.2 3.7 job seekers 4.4 3.8 4.7 4.3 4.1 4.1 2.6 2.4 1.9 1.7 Source: ONS (NOMIS) 10 Job Seeker Allowance is the second largest client group and represents 25% of key working age benefit claimants and 3.8% of the working age population. Lone parents on income support account for 12% of worklessness in the district and account for less than 2% of the working age population. Others on out of work benefit make up a further 3.1% of the total key working age benefit group. Table 3 Key Working Age Benefit Client Group, August 2010 No Job Seekers Allowance Incapacity Benefit & Employment Support Allowance Lone parent on Income Support Others on Out-of-Work benefits Total Key Working Age Benefits 7,960 18,930 3,770 970 31,640 % Claimants 25.2 59.8 11.9 3.1 100.0 % Working Age Population 3.8 9.0 1.8 0.5 15.0 Source: ONS (NOMIS) 3.1 Impact of Recession The economic downturn has resulted in an increase in worklessness, primarily due to the large increase in the Job Seekers client group. Prior to the downturn numbers of IB/ESA and lone parent claimants fell due to the impact of Government Welfare to Work programmes. Although the UK recession officially started in January 2009, unemployment in the Wakefield district started to rise in December 2007. Prior to the downturn, over the five year period November 2002 to 2007, the number of people claiming key working age benefits fell by 3,400 (10.8%). This was largely driven by a reduction in the IB/ESA group which fell by 2,010 (9.4%). However, both the JSA and lone parent IS groups also declined with decreases of 440 (10.4%) and 750 (15.5%) respectively. Since the onset of rising unemployment in the autumn of 2007, the number of people claiming key out of work benefits increased by 4,130 (14.8%) between November 2007 and 2009 and at August 2009 was at its highest level since February 2002. This is largely due to the rise in the JSA client group which has more than doubled, increasing by 4,600 (121.1%) to 8,400. Over, the same period the ESA/IB client group has fallen overall by 530 (2.7%) claimants, however, data for the quarters February 2009 to August 2009 quarters has shown four successive increases with two further rises in Feb and May 2010. The lone parent client group has continued to fall, with the exception of two quarterly rises in February and August 2009. 11 Figure 6 Worklessness Benefit Claimant Numbers by Client Group, Wakefield District, Aug 07 to Aug 10 35,000 Number of Claimants 30,000 job seeker 25,000 20,000 others on income related benefit 15,000 lone parent 10,000 ESA & IB 5,000 Aug-10 Apr-10 Dec-09 Aug-09 Apr-09 Dec-08 Aug-08 Apr-08 Dec-07 Aug-07 0 Source: ONS (NOMIS) 3.2 Worklessness Characteristics This element of the assessment looks more closely at the make-up of the different groups of benefit claimants that comprise the workless population in Wakefield looking at the age, gender and length of time out-of-work in comparison with sub regional, regional and national statistics. 3.2.1 Job Seekers Allowance Claimants The Job Seeker’s Allowance (JSA) was introduced in the UK on 7 October 1996. It replaced the existing system of unemployment benefits and income support, and is currently the main welfare support to those out of work and seeking employment. Labour market data for February 2011 shows the number of people out of work and claiming Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) increased by 240 (2.7%) on the month but was down by 366 (3.9%) on the year taking the Wakefield district count to 9,041 or 4.3% of the working age population. The district’s claimant count rate is close to its West Yorkshire counterparts and the regional average but is slightly higher than the national rate. Wide disparities in claim rates are evident at sub district level with ward JSA claim rates ranging from 2.3% in Stanley and Altofts wards to more than 7% in Wakefield Central and East wards. At a neighbourhood level JSA claim rates are estimated to be more than 10% of the working age population in some parts of the district. The district has a slightly higher penetration of male claimants and around one in ten working age men living in Wakefield East ward claim JSA. It should be noted, however, that the JSA claimant count can ignore some unemployed members of society, especially women, who experience more breaks from employment, are more likely to work part-time and are less likely to accumulate the necessary National Insurance contributions to receive JSA. Furthermore, projected deep public spending cuts are likely to lead to heavy job losses for women particularly in areas such as Wakefield which has a large public sector, with 28% of total employment in this sector and women representing 74% of the workforce. This will lead to many more families with both parents out of work. 12 Youth unemployment is particularly high with a third of JSA claimants aged between 18 and 24. Estimates suggest that 1 in 10 people aged 18-24 are out of work and claiming JSA. Small area data estimates also shows that over 31% of 18 to 24 year olds claim JSA in one Airedale locality. In terms of unemployment duration, at February 2011 a total of 2,420 people had been claiming JSA for more than six months, 27% of the total number of claimants. The median duration of uncompleted JSA unemployment at February 2011 was 13.1 weeks compared with 14.3 weeks the previous year. At ward level this ranged from 9.8 weeks in Castleford Ferry Fryston to 16.5 weeks in Wakefield North ward. At sub district level, the Wakefield City Centre priority neighbourhood has the highest duration with a JSA claim rate of 21.7 weeks. Older people are more likely to experience longer periods of unemployment. Figures for March 2010 show that the average JSA duration for those aged 50 and over is 18.8 weeks compared with 15.4 weeks for those aged 25 to 29. In some wards JSA claimants aged over 50 have claimed JSA for 26 weeks on average and rising to 39 weeks in some priority neighbourhoods. Longer term JSA unemployment is lower than the regional and national averages; however, this is masked when other key working age benefits are taken into consideration, especially long term dependency on ESA and IB. Table 4 sets out a snapshot of the composition of the JSA claimant population in the Wakefield district compared with the region and GB as a whole. Table 4 Characteristics of JSA Claimants, February 2011 Rate = % of Total JSA Claimants Wakefield No Age 24 and under 25-34 35-44 45-49 50 to pension age Gender Male Female Duration Up to 6 weeks 6-13 weeks 13-26 weeks 6 months – 1 year 1-2 years Over 2 years % Y&H GB % % 3,205 2,190 1,875 805 1,305 34.2 23.3 20.0 8.6 13.9 31.8 24.5 20.3 9.1 14.3 30.2 24.0 20.8 9.9 15.2 6,400 2,641 70.8 29.2 70.9 29.1 68.9 31.1 2,615 1,870 2,150 1,750 975 25 27.8 19.9 22.9 18.7 10.4 0.2 24.2 16.9 23.6 20.8 13.3 1.5 24.9 16.7 23.4 20.2 12.7 2.2 Source: ONS (NOMIS) As in most places, the economic downturn has led to a rise in unemployment. Unemployment has increased for all age bands, however, younger age bands have born the brunt of the recession and Figure 7 shows the sharp increase in the number claimants aged under 24 which increased by 1,985 between November 2007 and August 2009 when unemployment peaked. 13 Figure 7 Trends in JSA claimants by Age Band, Wakefield District, Feb 2000 to Feb 2010 3,500 Number of JSA claimants 3,000 2,500 Under 24 2,000 25-34 1,500 35-44 1,000 45-49 50+ 500 Dec-10 Feb-10 Apr-09 Jun-08 Aug-07 Oct-06 Dec-05 Feb-05 Apr-04 Jun-03 Aug-02 Oct-01 Dec-00 Feb-00 0 Source: DWP, ONS (NOMIS) The graph of unemployment durations within the district (Figure 8) shows an initial increase in newly unemployed at the start of the recession. The level of newly unemployed then stabilises, with levels for the 6-12 month and over 12 months (long-term unemployed) categories continuing to rise as the initial cohort of newly unemployed move through to longer-term unemployment. Since June 2009, the overall JSA claimant count has been falling, however, the number of claimants has increased for the last three consecutive months (December 2010 to February 2011). Figure 8 Trends in JSA Claimants by Duration, Wakefield District, Feb 2000 to Feb 2011 3,500 2,500 less than 6 weeks 2,000 6-13 weeks 1,500 13-26 weeks 1,000 26-52 weeks over 52 weeks 500 Feb-11 Feb-10 Feb-09 Feb-08 Feb-07 Feb-06 Feb-05 Feb-04 Feb-03 Feb-02 Feb-01 0 Feb-00 Number of JSA claimants 3,000 Source: DWP, ONS (NOMIS) 14 3.2.1.1 Usual Occupation At February 2011, over 42% of JSA claimants stated they were usually employed in elementary occupations which is significantly higher than the regional (33.6%) and national (29.2%) averages. The larger numbers of claimants from these groups can partly be explained by the larger number of jobs in these areas across the local economy. However, it is also true that many elementary occupations are experiencing higher rates of unemployment than professional occupations. Table 5 JSA Claimants by Usual Occupation, March 2010 Wakefield No % Occupation 1 : Managers and Senior Officials 2 : Professional Occupations 3 : Associate Professional and Technical Occupations 4 : Administrative and Secretarial Occupations 5 : Skilled Trades Occupations 6 : Personal Service Occupations 7 : Sales and Customer Service occupations 8 : Process, Plant and Machine Operatives 9 : Elementary Occupations 0 : Occupation unknown Total Y&H GB 100 245 155 340 660 905 530 1,435 830 3,800 1.1 2.7 1.7 3.8 7.3 10.1 5.9 16.0 9.2 42.2 1.1 3.1 2.2 4.4 7.7 11.3 5.8 20.7 10.1 33.6 1.0 3.8 2.8 5.8 9.5 11.1 6.1 21.4 9.2 29.2 8,995 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: DWP, ONS (NOMIS) Figure 9 below shows all occupations have been affected by the downturn. Between November 2007 and 2009, around a third of the increase in claimant unemployment was borne by workers employed in elementary occupations which increased by 1,640 (101%). Sales and customer service and skilled trades occupations increased by 760 (166%) and 745 (194%) respectively. The most recent data available shows the number of people unemployed whose usual occupation was of an elementary nature reached an all time high in February 2011. Figure 9 JSA claimants by usual occupational group, February 2006 to February 2011 4,000 Elementary Number of JSA claimants 3,500 3,000 Sales & Customer Service 2,500 Skilled Trades 2,000 1,500 Process, Plant & Machinery 1,000 Admin & Secretarial 500 Feb-11 Aug-10 Feb-10 Aug-09 Feb-09 Aug-08 Feb-08 Aug-07 Feb-07 Aug-06 Feb-06 0 Personal Service Source: DWP, ONS (NOMIS) It is also possible to consider duration of claimant unemployment by occupation. At February 2011, 1,030 JSA claimants whose usual occupation was of an elementary nature had been out 15 of work for over 26 weeks which accounted for 27% of this occupation group. However, analysis shows that workers from other occupational groups are likely to spend longer on the JSA than others. For example 34% of those whose usual occupations were managers and senior officials have been unemployed for more than six months. 3.2.1.2 Claimant off flows - Reasons JSA claimant off flow data reveals the main reason people stop claiming JSA is because they find work. Of those leaving the count in Wakefield over the twelve month period to February 2011, 40.3% found work which is slightly higher than the regional (39.3%) and GB (38.6%) averages. Figure 10 % of JSA Off Flows by Reason, Wakefield, Y&H & GB, March 2010 to February 2011 (inclusive) % JSA off-flows 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Not known Transfer to Govtsupported training Other 30.7 10.1 7.8 12.8 39.0 29.6 9.0 9.9 12.5 40.2 29.2 10.0 9.9 10.6 Found work Failed to sign GB 38.6 Y&H Wakefield Source: DWP, ONS (NOMIS) Over the past twelve months, Wakefield compares favourably with its sub regional counterparts with regard to JSA off flows finding work (40.3%). However, the district has a lower share than neighbouring Selby (46.9%), Barnsley (44%), and Doncaster (42.2%). There are wide discrepancies within the district with just 31.7% of those Wakefield East off flows finding work compared with 46.2% in Stanley and Altofts. Those living in priority neighbourhoods find it particularly hard to secure work with just 25% of former JSA claimants in Wakefield city centre finding work over the twelve month period to February 2011. Most people who lose their jobs spend a short time looking for a job before they find a new one. Of those job seekers who found work and left the register in February 2011, 45% had been unemployed for less than three months. However, this compares unfavourably with 56% during the same month prior to the downturn (March 2008). Even though Wakefield has a relatively high level of JSA claimants finding work, they still represent a minority of those leaving JSA. One of the reasons why so many people cease claiming JSA but remain out of work is that the contributory version of JSA, to which anyone who loses their job and has made enough National Insurance contributions is entitled, ends after just six months. After that, all that is available is the means tested version of JSA, to which a workless person with a working partner or spouse would almost certainly not be eligible because their household income is too high. 16 Those failing to sign represented 29.2% (7,325) of JSA off flows over the twelve month period to February 2011 and unknown destinations accounted for 10% (2,500). Places where people find it hard to secure work are also likely to experience higher than average flows of people transferring to government supported training. Some 9.9% (2,480) of those leaving the JSA count transferred to government supported training which is higher than the 7.8% national average. Within the district over 15% of JSA off flows resident in Wakefield East ward and 18% in the Warwick Estate priority neighbourhood in Knottingley transferred to government supported training. Figure 11 Number of JSA Off Flows by Reason, Wakefield, March 2010 to February 2011 (inclusive) Found work or increased work to… 10,130 Failed to sign 7,325 Not known 2,500 Government supported training 2,480 Gone abroad 800 Claimed benefit other than JSA 665 Other reasons 570 Ceased claiming 490 Education or approved training 135 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Number of JSA off flows Source: DWP, ONS (NOMIS) 3.2.2 Incapacity Benefit Claimants As previously highlighted, people on incapacity benefits comprise the largest single group in the worklessness population. In August 2010, 18,930 Wakefield district residents were in receipt of Employment and Support Allowance and Incapacity Benefits, representing 9% of the working age population, which is significantly greater than the regional (6.8%) and national (6.7%) rates. Former coalfield areas display particularly high levels of IB/SDA dependency with claim rates touching 15% of the working age population in South Kirkby ward. Around one in five of working age residents living in the Priority Estate, Wakefield city centre and Kinsley priority neighbourhoods belong to the IB/SDA client group. Incapacity benefit claimants tend to be older and disproportionately male. Benefits data for August 2009 shows that most claimants have been on incapacity benefits for lengthy periods. Over 78% of the ESA/IB client group have claimed for more than two years. Furthermore, 63% have claimed for more than five years which equates to 6% of the working age population. Table 6 sets out a snapshot of the ESA and IB client group in Wakefield at August 2009. 17 Table 6 Characteristics of ESA and IB Client Group, August 2010 Benefit Total ESA and IB Claimants Male Female Age aged under 25 aged 25-34 aged 35-44 aged 45-54 aged 55-59 aged 60-64 Duration up to 6 months 6 months up to 1 year 1 year and up to 2 years 2 years and up to 5 years 5 years and over Wakefield Y&H GB No % % % % working age population 18,930 9.0 6.7 6.8 11,250 10.7 7.9 7.6 7,690 7.3 5.7 5.7 % ESA/IB client group 1,210 6.4 6.4 6.3 2,180 11.5 12.7 12.8 3,820 20.2 21.3 21.9 5,570 29.4 29.1 30.1 3,490 18.4 18.1 17.6 2,660 14.1 12.4 11.3 % ESA/IB client group 1,720 9.1 9.2 9.3 1,060 5.6 5.4 5.3 1,310 6.9 7.3 7.1 3,050 16.1 17.2 17.1 11,790 62.3 60.9 61.1 Source: Benefit claimants - working age client group, DWP (NOMIS) The most common medical condition of IB/SDA claimants in the district is mental and behavioural disorders which represents over 37% of claimants but is below the regional and national rates. This category includes stress, depression, more severe mental health conditions and disorders related to drug and alcohol dependency. Research has shown that work and meaningful activity are central to the recovery process for many people with mental health problems and that as many as 90% of people who use mental health services want to work. The Social Exclusion Unit reported in 2004 that more than 4 in 10 mental health service users felt that they had been denied a job due to a previous psychiatric history and over 66% did not apply for jobs for fear of unfair treatment. Although it is not possible to estimate an overall employment rate for people in Wakefield with a mental health condition, for those known to secondary mental health services (10,144) only 12.2% are in paid employment and for those with a CPA (Care Programme Approach) the proportion drops to 7.6% of a cohort of 1,107 people. This compares to a general disability employment rate of 47.8%. Diseases of the musculoskeletal system and connective tissue is the second most frequent reason for claim in the district and is a somewhat higher level than the regional and national averages. Historically, musculoskeletal disorders were the leading reason for claiming IB in the UK and common in traditional industrial areas with high levels of manufacturing and coal mining employment. However, the reasons why many people are on Incapacity Benefit have changed over the last decade with the number claiming for mental or behavioural disorders increasing. Table 7 below shows the medical reason for IB/SDA claim as of August 2010. Please note this data does not include claimants of Employment and Support Allowance (ESA) 18 Table 7 Reason for claiming IB/SDA, August 2010 Wakefield Condition Mental & behavioural disorders Diseases of the musculoskeletal system & connective tissue Symptoms, signs & abnormal clinical & laboratory findings, not elsewhere classified Diseases of the nervous system Diseases of the circulatory system Injury, poisoning & certain other consequences of external causes Diseases of the respiratory system Diseases of the digestive system Neoplasms Endocrine, nutritional & metabolic diseases Factors influencing health status & contact with health services Congenital malformations, deformations & chromosomal abnormalities Diseases of the eye & adnexa Diseases of the genitourinary system Diseases of the skin & subcutaneous system Certain infectious parasitic diseases Diseases of the ear & mastoid process (H60-H95) Diseases of the blood & blood forming organs & certain diseases involving the immune mechanism Any condition Y&H GB No 5,690 3,380 % 37.5 22.3 % 41.5 17.7 % 43.7 16.9 1,900 900 810 12.5 5.9 5.3 12.2 7.2 5.2 11.4 6.9 4.7 700 410 220 190 190 4.6 2.7 1.5 1.3 1.3 4.6 2.3 1.4 1.2 1.4 4.6 2.0 1.4 1.2 1.4 160 1.1 1.1 1.3 150 100 100 90 80 60 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.4 20 15,160 0.1 0.1 0.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: DWP, ONS (NOMIS) 3.2.3 Lone Parents In August 2010, 3,770 people in the Wakefield district were in receipt of Income Support for Lone Parents, representing less than 2% of the working age population which is close to the regional and national averages. The data shows that the majority of claimants (97%) are female representing 3.4% of working age women. Wakefield has a relatively high proportion of young claimants with around 33% of the lone parent client group aged under 25 which is higher than the regional (31%) and national (27%) averages. Around 45% of claimants have one child and 7% have four or more children. Around 29% of the lone parent client group have been claiming for less than a year and over 23% have been claiming for five years or more. 19 Table 8 Characteristics of Lone Parent Working Age Benefit Client Group, August 2010 Persons Male Female Age under 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 Children 1 child 2 children 3 children 4 or more children Duration Up to 6 months 6 months – 1 year 1-2 years 2-5 years 5 years and over Wakefield Y&H GB No % % % % working age population 3,770 1.8 1.7 1.7 130 0.1 0.1 0.1 3,650 3.4 3.3 3.3 % total client group 1,240 1,570 810 140 10 32.9 41.6 21.5 3.7 0.3 30.8 42.2 22.1 4.5 0.3 26.6 41.8 25.4 5.8 0.4 1,690 1,270 540 280 44.8 33.7 14.3 7.4 44.0 32.1 15.4 8.6 44.2 32.0 15.5 8.4 610 480 770 1,040 870 16.2 12.7 20.4 27.6 23.1 13.8 11.6 17.9 26.9 29.8 15.5 12.7 19.2 27.0 25.6 Source: DWP, ONS (NOMIS) As highlighted previously, recipients of IS (LP) have fallen steadily in response to government policy over recent years but also due to administrative/eligibility changes. From November 2008, most lone parents with older children making a new or repeat claim for benefit were no longer entitled to Income Support only on the grounds of being a lone parent. From 2010, most lone parents with a youngest child aged 7 or over will no longer be entitled to Income Support only on the grounds of being a lone parent. Instead, those able to take up paid employment may claim Jobseeker’s Allowance and those with a disability or health condition may claim Employment and Support Allowance. Both these changes to entitlement will become visible in the IS lone parent statistics and in the new JSA lone parent figures over future quarterly releases. 3.2.4 Young People Youth unemployment and worklessness is a significant issue within the Wakefield district. DWP figures for August 2010 show some 5,320 residents aged between 16 and 24 were claiming key out of work benefits which equates to 14.3% of this age band which is somewhat higher than the regional (11.3%) and national (10.5%) rates. Furthermore, thirteen of the district’s twentyone wards are ranked in the top 10% of wards in England with the highest number of young people claiming out of work benefit. DWP data for August 2010 shows that JSA claimants represent over 50% of the total 16-24 benefit client group. Lone parents represent 23.3% of young claimants and a similar amount 20 claim ESA and incapacity benefits. Mental and behavioural disorders is the main reason young people claim ESA and incapacity benefits with over 48% claiming for this reason. Table 9 Benefit Claimants Aged 16-24 by Client Group, Wakefield, August 2010 Client Group No % job seekers lone parents ESA and incapacity benefits others on income related benefit Key out of work benefits 2,680 50.4 1,240 23.3 1,210 22.7 190 3.6 5,320 100.0 Source: NOMIS (ONS) The district has a high proportion of young people not in employment, education or training (NEET) – see page 29. 3.2.5 Older People The rise in state pension age is likely to lead to an increase in the older working age client group. From 2010 the state pension age for women will increase gradually to 65. This is to bring it in line with the state pension age for men. It also reflects women’s changed role in the workplace in recent years, and the fact that people are living longer. The changes to state pension age will affect the size of the working age population, and also affect other benefits. The age to which people get certain benefits, such as Jobseeker’s Allowance, will increase in line with the increase in state pension age. DWP figures for August 2010 show some 7,360 residents aged between 55 and pension age were claiming key out of work benefits. Estimates suggest that around 23% of Wakefield district residents aged between 55 and pension age are claiming key working age benefits which is higher than the regional (21%) and GB (20%) rates. DWP data for August 2010 shows that ESA/Incapacity Benefit is the main working age benefit for older unemployed people accounting for over 83% of those aged 55 to pension age claiming key out of work benefits. Some 9.1% of older claimants claim JSA and others on income related benefits account for 7.2% of the older client group. Lone parents represent just 0.1% of the older age band. Diseases of the musculoskeletal system and connective tissue are the main reasons older people claim IB or SDA with over 30% claiming for this reason. A large number, however, claim for mental and behavioural disorders with around a quarter of this age group claiming for this reason. Older people are more likely to be claiming for longer durations. DWP data for August 2010 shows that 61.3% (4,510) of older key out of work benefit claimants have been claiming for more than five years which is significantly higher than the regional and national averages of 55% respectively. 21 Table 10: Benefit Claimants Aged 55 to pension age by Client Group, Wakefield, August 2009 Client Group ESA and incapacity benefits job seeker others on income related benefit lone parent key out of work benefits No % 6,150 83.6 670 9.1 530 7.2 10 0.1 7,360 100.0 Source: NOMIS (ONS) 4 Earnings and Income Earnings data provide indicators of labour costs relating both to labour supply and labour demand. The median earnings of the resident population of the area are a characteristic of the labour supply provided by people living in that area. And the median earnings of people with a workplace in the area are an indicator of the nature of the labour demand arising from employers in the area. When interpreting the figures related to income and earnings it is important to consider two points. Firstly, earnings relate to the wages received by an individual whereas income may include savings, investments or money from other sources e.g. welfare benefits. The second point to note is the distinction between resident based earnings and workplace based earnings. There can be a significant difference between the two due to commuting patterns and care needs to be taken when examining the results. Information about income and earnings in this chapter comes from two main sources: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings which is published annually by National Statistics and provides both resident and workplace-based figures. Acxiom Household Survey: a national household survey which provides demographic information for local areas. 4.1 Average Earnings – Workplace Based The median gross annual earnings for people working full-time in Wakefield was £23,540 in 2010, which is close to the Yorkshire and Humber region average (£23,844) but below the national average (£25,993). In 2000, workplace annual full-time earnings in Wakefield were around £700 higher than the regional average and £700 lower than the national average. However, by 2010 the median gross annual full-time pay of employees working in Wakefield was £300 below the regional average and £2,450 lower than the national average. Between 2000 and 2010 the median gross weekly pay for those working full time in Wakefield rose by £5,337 (29.3%) compared with a rise of £6,341(36.2%) regionally and £7,078 (37%) nationally. Median gross full-time pay appears to have peaked at £24,969 in 2008 and has fallen for two consecutive years thereafter. 22 Figure 12 Workplace Full Time Median Gross Annual Pay, 2000-2010 FT Median Annual Pay -gross £27,000 £25,000 £23,000 GB £21,000 Y&H £19,000 Wakefield £17,000 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 £15,000 Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings – Workplace Analysis (ONS, NOMIS) 4.2 Average Earnings – Residence Based The median gross annual full time earnings for people who live in Wakefield was £22,315 in 2010, which is lower than the comparable figure for the region (£23,396) and GB as a whole (£26,000). It is worth noting that the residence based figure of £22,315 is lower than the median gross full time earnings figure for those who work in Wakefield of £23,540. Median full time earnings for residents in the Wakefield District were on average £1,205 per annum lower than workplace based estimates. The difference between workplace and residence based earnings in Wakefield is the highest in the Leeds City Region area (NB: Figures for Selby are suppressed as statistically unreliable) and reflects the presence of high-earners who work within Wakefield but live outside the district boundaries 23 Figure 13 Difference in Resident and Workplace Median FT Annual Pay (gross) median FT annual pay - gross Resident Workplace £27,000 £26,000 £25,000 £24,000 £23,000 £22,000 £21,000 £20,000 NB: Figures for Selby are suppressed as statistically unreliable Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings – Resident and Workplace Analysis (ONS, NOMIS) Of the ten local authority districts in the Leeds City Region (excluding Selby due to statistical unreliability of data), Wakefield is ranked eighth in terms of residence based earnings. However, when workplace based earnings are considered, Wakefield is ranked sixth. The three North Yorkshire districts of Harrogate, Craven and York have the highest residence based earnings and Leeds, York and Harrogate the highest workplace earnings within the region. Table 11 Median Full Time Resident and Workplace Earnings (Gross) by Local Authority Districts in the Leeds City Region, 2010 Area Barnsley Bradford Calderdale Craven Harrogate Kirklees Leeds Wakefield York Resident £ Rank £23,992 6 £22,235 9 £23,826 7 £25,415 2 £26,117 1 £24,325 5 £24,606 4 £22,315 8 £24,738 3 Workplace £ Rank £23,588 5 £22,770 8 £23,592 4 £22,133 9 £24,014 3 £23,169 7 £25,249 1 £23,540 6 £24,501 2 NB: Figures for Selby are suppressed as statistically unreliable Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings – Resident and Workplace Analysis (ONS, NOMIS) The relatively low earnings in Wakefield reflect the occupations in which residents are employed. As noted in the Skills and Qualifications chapter, Wakefield has a relatively low proportion of people employed in managerial and professional occupations with just 33.3%4. 4 ONS Annual Population Survey, Apr 2009-Mar 2010 24 4.3 Household Income According to the Acxiom 2010 Household Survey the average gross household income (including benefits and savings) for Wakefield is estimated to be £30,798, compared to £31,393 for Yorkshire & Humber and £36,141 for England as a whole. The survey also shows that 27,146 or 19% of households in the district have a gross household income of less than £10,000 per year compared with 14% nationally. Around 13% of households have an average income of £50,000 or more against 18% for England as a whole. Household income varies significantly across the district. Wakefield South ward has the highest average household income at £37,339. Conversely, Airedale and Ferry Fryston has the lowest average household income with an estimated annual income of £21,047. Furthermore, around 29% of households in this ward have household incomes of less than £10,000 a year. Such inequalities in wealth across the district are further evident when examining data at neighbourhood level. The Indices of Deprivation 2010 shows that over two fifths of lower layer super output areas in the Wakefield district are ranked in the most income deprived quintile in England. In some parts over 40% of residents are considered to be experiencing income deprivation. Figure 14 illustrates income deprivation quintile ranks within the Wakefield district. Figure 14 Income Deprivation, Indices of Multiple Deprivation 2010 25 5 Skills and Qualifications Human capital is a prerequisite of a successful knowledge economy. The workforce should ideally be characterised by a good blend of academic and vocational skills. Skills are one of the strategic weaknesses of the Wakefield district economy and a key priority for the regeneration of the district. According to the Local Futures Skills and Qualification score, the district is ranked 329 out of 407 districts, indicating a resident workforce that performs in the bottom 20% of districts by national standards, in terms of human capital. The Education, Skills and Training (EST) domain of the Indices of Deprivation 2010 show that education and skills deprivation is widespread with many parts of the district affected by education, skills and training deprivation. The EST domain is split into two sub-domains - young people’s (16-24) educational attainment and the level of skills/qualifications held by adults (25- 54). The young people’s sub-domain takes into account a range of indicators, including average scores at Key Stage 2, 3 and 4, pupil absentee rates, numbers not entering Higher Education and rates of young people remaining in post-16 education. The adult sub-domain is measured using one indicator; the proportion of adults (25-54) with no or low skills or qualifications. Together the two sub-domains represent the flow and stock of educational disadvantage; the young peoples’ sub-domain measuring a neighbourhood’s deprivation in attaining qualifications and the skills sub-domain identifying skills/training deprivation in the resident working age population. Under this measure, over two fifths (43%) of LSOAs in the district are ranked within the 20% most deprived in England and over one fifth (23%) are within the 10% most deprived. Furthermore, six of these areas are ranked within the 1% most deprived in England. Figure 15 illustrates the widespread nature of education, skills and training deprivation within the district. Figure 15 Education, Skills and Training Deprivation, Indices of Multiple Deprivation 2010 26 5.1 Educational Attainment Those currently in education are the workforce of tomorrow and as such their skills and abilities will drive future productivity and competitiveness. Key Stage 2 qualifications are taken in year 6 when pupils are aged between 11 and 12. Figures for 2010 show that 76% of 11 year olds in Wakefield reached the required standard in English up from 75% in 2005. KS2 English attainment is below the 79% regional and 80% national averages. In Mathematics 79% of 11 year olds reached the required standard which is in line with the regional and national averages and is up from 77% in 2005. In 2010, 56% of pupils taking GCSE’s achieved 5 or more passes at grades A*-C including English and Maths, compared to 52% for Yorkshire and the Humber and 53% across England as a whole. Figure 16 sets out variations in GCSE performance across the Leeds City Region’s component parts. Success levels were highest in North Yorkshire (although this geography includes local authorities defined to lie outside of the Leeds City Region) and Wakefield, but comparatively lower in neighbouring Barnsley. Young people in the most disadvantaged parts of the district however still lag behind the district average by quite a gap, especially in the central urban areas of Wakefield and former coalfield areas where in 2009 GCSE attainment (5A*-C including English and Maths) is estimated to range between 34.5%5 and 71.3% against the Wakefield district average of 50.2%. Figure 16 GCSE Performance Leeds City Region Local Education Authorities, 2010 % A*- C grades at GCSE or equiv incl E&M 70 60 50 44.4 40.2 42.3 55.8 52.8 54.2 54.5 49.2 50.6 50.8 51.4 51.5 58.6 59.1 61.6 52.0 53.4 40 30 20 10 0 Source: DfEE Since 2005 the GCSE performance of the district’s young people has moved from 2.2 percentage points below the national average to 2.4 above the national average. 5 Figures based on in-house 2009 ward profiling estimates. 27 % 5+ A*-C grades or equiv incl E&M Figure 17 GCSE Performance, 2005-2010 60.0 55.0 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Wakefield 40.4 42.9 46.5 51.3 49.3 55.8 Y&H 39.2 40.3 42.5 44.4 47.3 52.0 England 42.6 44.1 45.9 48.4 50.9 53.4 Source: DfEE 5.2 Further Education Despite significant improvements in school attainment over recent years, staying on rates in the district remain relatively low. Around 88% of young people completing Year 11 in 2009 chose to continue in learning to develop their skills and abilities beyond their attainments at school which is the lowest rate in the Yorkshire and Humber Region and the second lowest rate nationally (92.8% England average). Staying on rates, however, have improved and the 2009 statistics show an increase of almost 16 percentage points since 1996 (see Figure 18). Figure 18 Participation Over Time, Wakefield District Year 11 School Leaver Destinations, 2003-2009 100% 90% % Year 11 Leavers 80% 70% No Response 60% Moved out of contact 50% Not settled 40% Employment 30% Gov supported training 20% FT education 10% 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Headline Results from the Annual Activity Survey 2003-2009 by LA The GCE A level is usually taken after GCSEs and a further two years of study in a sixth form or equivalent. The average Level 3 QCA point score per student in 2010 was 743.6 up from 728.6 in 2006. 28 In the autumn of 2009, some 3.9% of the cohort was known to be in employment compared with 7.1% in 2008. Of those known to be in employment, less than a third were not receiving training. Young people who enter employment without formal training are likely to be disadvantaged in later life in terms of employment and earnings. 5.3 Not in Employment, Education or Training (NEET) Non participation in education, employment or training between the ages of 16 and 18 is a major predictor of later unemployment, low income, involvement in crime and poor mental health, all of which impact on the economy. National Indicator 117- shows that at 2010 7.9% of 16-18 year olds in the district were Not in Employment, Education or Training (NEET). This is the equivalent to 890 young people in the district. Figures for 2010 show that Wakefield has the second highest NEET rate in the Leeds City Region. Trend data, however, suggests that NEET rates have declined over the last two year years. Figure 19 NEET Rates, Wakefield District, 2005-2010 14.0 % of 16-18 year olds NEET 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: The Places Database (data download tool) It should be noted that Wakefield has a very low rate of young people in the ‘not known’ NEET category which means the council is in contact with most young people in the cohort. The council works with partners to engage vulnerable and at risk young people in activities to progress into employment, education or training. This has contributed to reductions in NEET figures over the last two years. 5.4 Higher Education Many students experience difficulties in the transition from further to higher education and Wakefield has a very low level of residents applying for university places. The number of local residents entering UK Higher Educational Institutions declined in 2005/06 and 2006/07 which may be connected with the rise in tuition fees during 2006. When fees were raised in 2006, the number of entrants to UK Higher Education Institutions from Wakefield fell by 16% on the 2004/05 intake compared with a drop of 2% nationally. However, the number of entrants has increased from 2007/08 onwards. 29 Figure 20 Higher Education - Number of English domiciled entrants to UK Higher Education Institutions. Wakefield District, 2004/05 to 2008/09 2,600 Number of Entrants 2,500 2,400 2,300 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 Source: Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) student record Figure 20 shows that the number of entrants who are Wakefield residents (all ages) to UK Higher Education Institutions has fallen between 2004/05 to 2008/09 which is the largest decline in the region and is in contrast to the majority of areas which experienced an increase in the number of entrants. Figure 21 Net change in the number of English domiciled entrants to UK Higher Education Institutions, Barnsley Rotherham Doncaster Sheffield North Yorkshire England North Lincolnshire Y&H North East Lincolnshire Leeds East Riding of Yorkshire York Kirklees Kingston upon Hull Bradford Calderdale Wakefield -10 0 10 20 30 40 % change Source: Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) student record Despite overall improvements in school attainment and staying on rates wide disparities in some neighbourhoods remain. On the whole, young people in the most disadvantaged parts of the district still lag behind the district average in terms of higher level skills and are more likely to face barriers to accessing higher education. Estimates for 2008 indicate just over 12% of young people living in the 20% most deprived parts of the district were accepted onto a full time HE course compared with 54% in the 20% least deprived neighbourhoods. When compared to the regional and national averages, young people living in the most deprived neighbourhoods in the 30 district are less likely to access higher education, however, the reverse applies to those living in the least deprived areas. Figure 22 Estimated Proportion of 18 Year Old Population Accepted through UCAS onto a Full-Time HE Course Aged 18 or 19 by Deprivation Category of Home Neighbourhood, 2008 60 50 % cohort 40 30 20 10 0 20% most deprived 21-40% 41-60% 61-80% 20% least deprived Wakefield 12.3 22.1 33.1 43.3 53.8 Y&H 16.2 24.7 33.7 41.2 47.1 Eng 21.8 27.9 34.9 41.5 49.1 Source: AonA analysis of UCAS data, ONS and Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007 (Overall score) 5.5 Adult Skills Levels of skills attainment amongst the district’s working age population are somewhat below the regional and national average (Figure 22). A recent study commissioned by the BBC to look at economic resilience levels and the ability of each local authority area to withstand sudden changes in the economy, suggests Wakefield performs poorly on human capital. The research shows that when compared to other local authority areas in the region, Wakefield performs least well on the People score (ranked 306 out of 324 nationally). This is the worst performance in both the Leeds City Region and the Yorkshire and Humber region as a whole. The variables used highlight a low proportion of the workforce qualified to at least NVQ level 4, which translates into high levels of people in elementary occupations on low average earnings. 31 Figure 23 Qualifications of the Wakefield District Working Age Population (Jan-Dec 2009) % aged 16-64 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 NVQ4 and above NVQ3 and above NVQ2 and above NVQ1 and above No qualificatio ns Wakefield 19.0 41.1 57.6 77.2 12.9 Y&H 26.6 47.0 63.5 78.6 12.8 GB 29.9 49.3 65.4 78.9 12.0 Source: ONS annual population survey (NOMIS) Low skills attainment is a significant issue within the Wakefield district with around 26,600 residents lacking any educational qualification. The proportion of the working age population with higher qualifications is very low by national standards, with 19% (39,200) of all residents qualified to NVQ4+ in 2009. By comparison the Yorkshire and Humber figure was 26.6% and the national figure was 29.9%. This is the second lowest rate in the Leeds City Region. This can be partly ascribed to the restructuring of the local economy around sectors which do not have the greatest demand for higher level skills, but there is evidence to show that local residents are not taking up the higher level skilled posts that are being created. Table 12 Leeds City Region Local Authorities by Skill Level, Jan-Dec 2009 NVQ4+ NVQ3+ NVQ2+ NVQ1+ York Harrogate Leeds Kirklees Craven Selby Calderdale Bradford Wakefield Barnsley York Harrogate Leeds Kirklees Selby Calderdale Craven Bradford Wakefield Barnsley York Craven Harrogate Leeds Kirklees Calderdale Selby Wakefield Bradford Barnsley York Harrogate Craven Leeds Calderdale Kirklees Wakefield Selby Barnsley Bradford No qualifications (ranked lowest to highest) York Harrogate Craven Leeds Calderdale Wakefield Kirklees Selby Barnsley Bradford Source: ONS annual population survey (NOMIS) The Wakefield higher skills rate has improved in recent years and according to the 2009 Annual Population Survey the proportion of working age residents qualified to NVQ4+ increased by 1.6 percentage points on the previous year compared to 1.3 percentage points for GB as a whole. However, the higher level skills gap has widened and is now 10.9 percentage points below the national average compared with 7.3 in 2004. 32 Figure 24 Skills Level Trend, Wakefield District Residents, 2004 to 2009 % 16-64 year olds 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Jan 04Dec 04 Jan 05Dec 05 Jan 06Dec 06 Jan 07Dec 07 Jan 08Dec 08 Jan 09Dec 09 NVQ4+ 18.8 19.9 20.0 17.6 17.4 19.0 NVQ3+ 37.2 38.9 40.2 37.7 36.9 41.1 NVQ2+ 54.3 54.4 55.5 55.6 55.6 57.6 NVQ1+ 72.6 72.3 73.7 72.9 73.5 77.2 No qualifications 18.1 16.6 15.8 16.3 15.2 12.9 Source: ONS annual population survey (NOMIS) 5.6 Occupational Structure As the national economy continues to shift towards a knowledge led economy, the more it will demand higher skill occupations6 reflecting the occupational structure of new industries. But data from the Annual Population Survey (Apr 2009 – Mar 2010) shows the Wakefield district has a significantly lower proportion of residents employed in professional and managerial occupations than the regional and national average. In contrast, Wakefield has a higher proportion of employment in process, plant & machine operatives and elementary occupations. Table 13 Employment by Occupation, Wakefield District Residents, Apr 2009-Mar 2010 Wakefield Y&H GB Occupational Group No % % % Soc 2000 major group 1-3 49,300 33.3 40.2 44.3 1 Managers and senior officials 17,300 11.7 14.7 15.7 2 Professional occupations 13,300 9.0 11.9 13.7 3 Associate professional & technical 18,700 12.6 13.4 14.7 Soc 2000 major group 4-5 37,700 25.5 21.1 21.6 4 Administrative & secretarial 20,000 13.5 10.8 11.2 5 Skilled trades occupations 17,800 12.0 10.2 10.4 Soc 2000 major group 6-7 22,600 15.3 17.7 16.2 6 Personal service occupations 10,100 6.8 9.4 8.7 7 Sales and customer service occs 12,600 8.5 8.2 7.4 Soc 2000 major group 8-9 38,200 25.9 21.0 17.9 8 Process plant & machine operatives 15,400 10.4 8.4 6.6 9 Elementary occupations 22,800 15.4 12.5 11.1 Source: ONS annual population survey (NOMIS) Note: Numbers and % are for those of 16+ % is a proportion of all persons in employment Furthermore, occupational structure varies within the region. Wakefield district residents are less likely to be occupied in occupations requiring higher level skills. Examples of higher level occupations include corporate administrators; managers and proprietors; science/technical ; Health; social/welfare; teaching/research; legal; business 6 UK CES; NINJ 33 professionals; architects; town planners; draughtspersons & building inspectors; IT service delivery ; therapists. According to the ONS Annual Population Survey (Apr 2009 – Mar 2010), Wakefield has the lowest proportion of residents occupied in managerial, professional and associate professional occupations in the Leeds City Region. Wakefield also has the highest proportion in lower skilled jobs such as process plant/machine operatives and elementary type occupations. % of those in employment aged 16+ Figure 25 Higher and Lower Skill Level Occupations, Leeds City Region Local Authority Areas (residents based), Apr 2009-Mar 2010 Managerial, professional & assoc professional Process plant & machine operative & elementary 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 46.7 43.9 35.3 22.1 41.3 39.3 38.7 43.9 47.5 46.9 33.3 22.4 25.9 19.5 18.9 19.9 20.3 17.4 12.5 13.4 Source: ONS annual population survey (NOMIS) Note: Numbers and % are for those of 16+ % is a proportion of all persons in employment The number of Wakefield residents employed in managerial and professional occupations decreased by 11% (-3,800) between the year ending Mar 05 to Mar 10 which is contrary to rises of 7.1% for the region and 8.6% for GB as a whole. The number of residents employed in personal service; sales and customer service; and elementary occupations has also declined and compares unfavourably against the regional and national trends. However, the number of residents employed in associate professional & technical; administrative & secretarial; and skilled trades occupations have all increased. 5.7 Skills Mismatch In contrast to the decline in the number of higher level occupations filled by Wakefield residents over the last five years, the reverse has occurred for workplace based employment (ie people employed at workplaces within the Wakefield district) with an increase in the number of people employed in managerial; professional; associate professional & technical occupations. Furthermore, occupational growth in managers and senior officials at workplaces in the district compares favourably with the regional and national trends. Workplace employment growth in associate professional and technical occupations also compares favourably to the regional and national averages. Employment growth also occurred in administrative & secretarial and skilled trades occupations which is contrary to declines for the region and GB as a whole. Negative growth occurred in personal service occupations amongst both residents and workplaces which is contrary to growth occurring at the regional and national level. 34 The greatest employment decline occurred in elementary and process plant and machine operative occupations for both residents and workplaces. This was at a faster rate than the regional and national rates. The number of people employed in sales and customer service occupations also declined. The 2009 Employers Skills Survey shows that 17% of workplaces surveyed in Wakefield reported having employees who were not fully proficient at their job. The incidence of skills gaps in Wakefield is in line with the regional average and lower than the England average (19%). The imbalance between residence and workplace higher level skills implies there might be a mismatch between the jobs on offer and the skills possessed by the resident working-age population in the local area. Results from the 2001 Census show that around 40% of workplace jobs which would traditionally require a higher level qualification were occupied by people commuting in to the Wakefield district. This compares with 25% in Harrogate and 30% in Kirklees. Table 14 Residents and Workplace Occupational Structure Change, Wakefield District (year ending March 2005 to March 2010) Residents Workplace Occupational Group No % No % -2,400 -12.2 4,300 24.9 1 Managers and senior officials -1,400 -9.5 100 0.6 2 Professional occupations 1,400 8.1 1,300 8.2 3 Associate professional & technical 3,100 18.3 1,700 11.3 4 Administrative & secretarial 3,900 28.1 500 3.4 5 Skilled trades occupations -1,400 -12.2 -100 -0.9 6 Personal service occupations -4,200 -25.0 -1,500 -11.5 7 Sales and customer service occs -400 -2.5 -2,900 -15.8 8 Process plant & machine operatives -6,900 -23.2 -7,000 -23.3 9 Elementary occupations -8,300 -5.3 -3,600 -2.4 TOTAL Source: ONS annual population survey, residents & workplace (NOMIS) The mismatch between the profile of local workers and local residents is reflected in the district’s skills and occupational profile. Despite growth in higher level occupations occurring in Wakefield workplaces, residents have not benefitted as expected, with significant shares of the population in ‘low end’ occupations. This has led to high levels of income and employment deprivation across significant areas of the district. 5.8 Future Demand Increasing the proportion of people with high level skills has been identified as a key priority by academics and policy makers alike on the basis that this will boost business competitiveness and achieve greater prosperity. Skills for employment in the future will be at a higher level. The changes to the labour market underline the need to have an increasingly skilled workforce. Employment growth has occurred in sectors and occupations that require qualified and educated workers. The strongest growth in future employment is predicted to occur at managerial, professional and technican level7 . 7 Institute for Employment Research at the University of Warwick in conjunction with Cambridge Econometrics Research Papers Working Futures 2007-17 35 The chart below shows that in 1996 there were fewer people employed at Wakefield district workplaces in higher level skilled occupations than those in more basic lower skilled occupations, but this converged by 2007. Between 2007 and 2026, the number of people occupied in higher level skilled occupations is forecast to increase by 6,500 (15.5%) compared with 2,160 (5.2%) for those occupied in occupations requiring lower level skills. Figure 26 Higher and Lower Level Occupational Trends Forecast, (workplace based) 1996 to 2026 SOC 1-2 (Managerial & Professional) 000s SOC 8-9 (Process, Plant & machine ops & Elementary occs) 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 30 1996 2006 2016 2026 Source: Yorkshire Forward Regional Econometric Model, Autumn (September 2010) Levels of skills attainment for residents living in the Wakefield district are lower than the Leeds City Region and the UK averages. The skills base of the Wakefield district workplace population has improved over recent years, however, disparities still exist. Latest available workplace occupational forecasts suggest that by 2026 the overall occupational structure will be broadly similar to 2010 with the following key differences: Growth in the proportion employed in managerial and senior official occupations. A slight decrease in the proportion employed in professional and associate professional and technical occupations is forecast and these categories are likely to become more under-represented within the district when compared to the UK averages. A larger proportion of people employed in sales and customer service occupations will occur and a slight increase will occur in the proportion employed in process, plant and machine operative occupations. Table 15 Current and Forecast Occupational Structure, % of workforce (workplace based) Wakefield Relative 2010 2026 to UK Occupational Group Wakefield UK Wakefield UK 2010 2026 1 Managers and senior officials 15.2 16.3 16.1 17.2 -1.1 -1.1 2 Professional occupations 11.1 13.1 10.8 13.4 -1.9 -2.6 3 Associate professional & technical 13.4 14.8 13.2 15.3 -1.4 -2.1 4 Administrative & secretarial 11.4 11.9 10.2 11.0 -0.5 -0.8 5 Skilled trades occupations 9.1 10.4 9.0 9.7 -1.3 -0.6 6 Personal service occupations 6.9 8.2 6.8 8.5 -1.3 -1.7 7 Sales and customer service occs 8.8 7.3 9.7 7.6 1.5 2.1 36 8 Process plant & machine operatives 10.7 7.1 10.8 6.8 3.6 4.0 9 Elementary occupations 13.3 10.9 13.3 10.6 2.4 2.8 Source: Yorkshire Forward Regional Econometric Model, Autumn (September 2010) In net job growth terms, expansion in higher level occupations is forecast to continue in the district, although this will be at a slower rate than the Leeds City Region and UK growth rates. Figure 9 shows that the number of people employed in higher level occupations (first two occupational groups) at workplaces within the Wakefield district is set to increase by around 5,100. Further growth is predicted in professional and associate professional and technical occupations. Overall, employment is set to increase by around 15,800 jobs between 2010 and 2006. With the exception of negative growth in administrative and secretarial related occupations, growth is also expected to occur across all broad industrial occupational groups. Figure 27 Net Employment Change, Wakefield District (workplace based), 2010 to 2026 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Managers & senior officials Professional Associate Prof & Technical Administrative & secretarial Skilled trades Personal service Sales & customer service Process, plant & machine ops Elementary Source: Yorkshire Forward Regional Econometric Model, Autumn (September 2010) 6 Deprivation This section is lifted from Pete’s draft IMD paper. The Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) 2010 district summaries show Wakefield District to be the 67th most deprived district in England, out of 326. This is an improvement on the position in 2007. Wakefield’s ranking position within the region has moved from 7th most deprived district in 2007 to 8th most deprived. The proportion of neighbourhoods among the top-20% most deprived nationally is a common benchmark of district-level deprivation relative to elsewhere in the country. The proportion of Wakefield District’s neighbourhoods in this group has reduced from 35% in 2004 to 31% in 2007 and now to 29% in 2010. Focussing in on the very most deprived, in 2007 there 47,000 people across the District living in neighbourhoods among the top-10% most deprived in England. This number has fallen to 40,500 people in 2010. 37 The IMD is based upon a wide range of indicators organised into seven weighted sub-domains. Wakefield’s district-level deprivation picture tends to be shaped by poorer education, employment and health outcomes relative to elsewhere, while problems associated with housing, access to services and the living environment are generally better. Within the district, however, there are marked differences between areas, wards and neighbourhoods. Between 2007 and 2010 most neighbourhoods saw some change in their deprivation scores and ranking positions, but the majority of these changes are small. An analysis to identify meaningful amounts of change has revealed only one neighbourhood getting a significantly worse rank; and seven neighbourhoods getting worse ranks. The majority of these neighbourhoods are not at all deprived, but they have changed. A further 36 neighbourhoods have better ranks and 11 neighbourhoods have significantly better ranks. Some of these improving neighbourhoods are at the more-deprived end of Wakefield’s deprivation spectrum and they are improving in almost all respects. Despite these improving conditions there is a widening gap within the district between the most deprived and the least deprived neighbourhoods. The improvements between 2007 and 2010 have tended to be found among neighbourhoods at the less-deprived end of the spectrum, while for the poorest neighbourhoods there has been little significant change. The IMD 2010 district summaries show Wakefield District to be the 67th most deprived district in England, out of 326. In 2007, Wakefield ranked 66th from 354, so the picture of district-level deprivation relative to elsewhere has improved. Figure 28 shows what proportion of neighbourhoods fall into the England quintiles for each district in the Yorkshire and Humber region. Hull has the greatest proportion of its neighbourhoods in the most deprived fifth nationally, followed by Bradford. By contrast, there are only a small number of the most deprived neighbourhoods among the North Yorkshire districts. Figure 28 Proportion of LSOAs by Deprivation Deciles, Yorkshire and Humber Local Authority Districts, ID2010 Hull Bradford North East Lincolnshire Doncaster Sheffield Barnsley Rotherham Wakefield Leeds Kirklees Calderdale Scarborough North Lincolnshire East Riding of Yorkshire York Craven Selby Harrogate Hambleton Richmondshire Ryedale 0% 20% quintiles 40% 1 2 60% 3 80% 4 5 100% 38 Although the ranking positions within the region have not changed a great deal between 2007 and 2010 there have been changes to the number of neighbourhoods in the national top-20% most-deprived group. Barnsley has fared best, with a net movement of seven (5%) of its neighbourhoods out of the England top-20% group between IMD 2007 and IMD 2010. The next best performance came from Wakefield, with a net movement of 4 (2%) of its neighbourhoods out of the England top-20% group. Bradford, Leeds, East Riding, Kirklees, Rotherham, North Lincs., Craven and Scarborough all saw numbers of their neighbourhoods in the national top20% group increase. 6.1 Geography and Extent Figure 29 shows the geography of multiple deprivation at the neighbourhood scale. The least deprivation tends to be found in the Wakefield North West and Wakefield Rural areas. Figure 29 Indices of Multiple Deprivation, Wakefield District, 2010 The proportion of the population living in the top-20% most deprived neighbourhoods nationally, what is termed the extent, has generally reduced between 2004 and 2010, except in Pontefract and Knottingley (Table 16). The IMD 2010 also shows a marked reduction in the extent of deprivation in the South East since the IMD 2007 (this change is more accurately between 2005/06 and 2008/09, given the periods that data are collected). 39 Table 16 Extents of Deprivation, Wakefield District Seven Delivery Areas, 2004-2010 Population living in neighbourhoods among top20% most deprived nationally 2004 2007 2010 2010 Delivery Area % % % people Castleford 67 50 49 18,833 Wakefield Central 56 51 49 23,818 South East 52 52 38 18,439 Pontefract and Knottingley 31 35 35 15,305 Normanton and Featherstone 35 33 32 12,841 Wakefield Rural 13 10 10 4,327 Wakefield North West 0 0 0 0 Wakefield District 35 31 29 93,563 The Castleford area has seen significant reductions in extent since the IMD 2004 but 38% of young people aged under 16 and 30% of people over 64 are still living in neighbourhoods amongst the top-10% most deprived nationally (Table 17). Across the district as a whole, 40,459 people are living in neighbourhoods among the top-10% most deprived neighbourhoods in England, down from 47,032 people in 2007. Table 17 Extent of Deprivation by Age Group, IMD 2010 Population living in neighbourhoods among top-10% most deprived nationally Under 16 Over 64 All ages Delivery Area People % People % People Castleford 2,776 38 1,794 30 12,642 Wakefield Central 2,920 30 2,011 29 12,693 South East 1,204 13 1,271 16 5,739 Pontefract and Knottingley 1,017 13 646 8 4,491 Normanton and Featherstone 735 10 483 8 3,323 Wakefield Rural 276 4 193 2 1,571 Wakefield North West 0 0 0 0 0 Wakefield District 8928 15 6398 12 40459 % 33 26 12 10 8 3 0 12 6.2 Theme As mentioned above, the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) is a combination of scores for seven sub-domains. In turn, each of the sub-domain scores is calculated using between four and seven indicators. Looking at how neighbourhoods are scored by individual sub-domain can give an indication of what issues are driving the overall picture of multiple deprivation. For Wakefield District as a whole, it is indicators of educational achievement, employment and health where there are the most neighbourhoods amongst the top-10% most deprived nationally (Table 18). By contrast, problems associated with housing, access to services and the living environment are fewer in Wakefield than elsewhere. Table? also gives an impression of which sub-domains have seen the most change between 2004 and 2010 (low numbers are best). Problems of poor health and disability appear not to be as marked relative to elsewhere in England as they once were. 40 Table 18 Number of neighbourhoods (out of 209) in Wakefield District amongst the top 10% most deprived neighbourhoods nationally by sub-domain 2004 54 49 60 24 19 12 0 Education, skills and training Employment Health deprivation and disability Crime and disorder Income Living environment Barriers to housing and services 2007 56 41 53 27 16 2 0 2010 49 42 38 27 15 5 0 Again, there are differences by sub-domain within the district (Table 19). For example, Wakefield Central and the South East have similar proportions of neighbourhoods in the top20% most deprived nationally for health and education, but the South East has far fewer neighbourhoods that are in the top-20% most deprived nationally for income and crime. Employment Health and disability Education, skills and training Barriers to housing Crime and disorder Living environment IMD 24 30 30 29 25 30 41 Income Delivery Area Castleford Wakefield Central South East Pontefract and Knottingley Normanton and Featherstone Wakefield Rural Wakefield North West Number of neighbourhoods Table 19 Percentage of neighbourhoods amongst the top-20% most deprived neighbourhoods nationally by sub-domain 38% 47% 20% 21% 20% 13% 0% 58% 53% 60% 41% 44% 23% 0% 46% 63% 57% 38% 36% 20% 5% 67% 57% 53% 62% 56% 23% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 63% 47% 20% 41% 12% 17% 0% 13% 13% 0% 0% 0% 7% 0% 50% 50% 40% 34% 32% 10% 0% 7 Health There is a critical link between the health of the workforce and a successful local economy. The area has a higher than average population of people who describe themselves as feeling in ‘poor health’ and mortality rates lag behind national averages in terms of circulatory diseases and cancers. There are also relatively high levels of teenage conception, obesity and smoking and substance misuse. As indicated earlier, the district displays high levels of worklessness and ill health is a major contributing factor. The area has a higher than average population of people who describe themselves as feeling in ‘poor health' and average life expectancy for the district is lower than the average for England with death rates from smoking and early deaths from heart disease, stroke and from cancer all higher than England averages. There are also relatively high levels of teenage conception, obesity, smoking and substance misuse Wakefield’s Joint Strategic Needs Assessment provides an in depth analysis of the health and wellbeing of people in the Wakefield district. It also provides an overview of future health, care and well-being needs. The Welcome to Wakefield’s Developing Healthier Communities – The 41 Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA) 2008-2011 is available at: http://www.wakefield.gov.uk/NR/rdonlyres/7A0CE03D-B2A9-4578-BB4C54B6BC412688/0/Joint_strategic_needs_assessment_May09.pdf 8 Child Poverty This section provides a brief statistical overview of child poverty within the Wakefield district. The Child Poverty Act 2009 placed a duty on local authorities and their partners to publish both a child poverty needs assessment and child poverty strategy. These are available at: www. The Government’s Child Poverty Unit states that ‘broadly speaking, child poverty means growing up in a household with low income’. Poverty experienced during childhood can not only have a profound and lasting impact on children and their families, but can also have costs to society and the economy: Expectations and future aspirations amongst children who grow up in low income families are lower than for children from wealthier families; Children who grow up in poverty lack many of the experiences and opportunities that others take for granted; Growing up in poverty affects children’s outcomes as adults, and these, in turn, affect their children, and so a cycle of poverty is created; Poverty in childhood can cause poverty in the future. Poor children are less likely to achieve higher level skills and qualifications, which are critical to enter the workforce and progress in work, as well as to thrive in other areas of life; Those living in poverty are more likely to have poorer health outcomes, for example teenage pregnancy which in itself creates further poverty for the parent and child; Communities with greater levels of poverty suffer through increased deprivation and inequalities, which reduce social cohesion; The UK’s productivity, and therefore its competitiveness in the global economy, is limited by low educational achievement and aspirations, and poor health; On average throughout the Wakefield district, one in five (20.4%) children are classified as living in poverty8 which is in line with the England average (20.9%). Ward data reveals wide disparities with child poverty rates ranging from 8.5% in Stanley and Outwood East and Wrenthorpe and Outwood West to 35.8% in Airedale and Ferry Fryston (see Table 20). Table 20 Proportion of Children Living in Poverty, 2008 Percentage of children Ward in poverty Ackworth, North Elmsall and Upton 14.7% Airedale and Ferry Fryston 35.8% Altofts and Whitwood 16.4% Castleford Central and Glasshoughton 14.9% Crofton, Ryhill and Walton 15.3% Featherstone 25.3% Hemsworth 24.6% Horbury and South Ossett 11.7% Knottingley 26.8% 8 Households whose equivalised income is below 60% of the national median (source: NI 116, HMRC, 2008) 42 Ward Normanton Ossett Pontefract North Pontefract South South Elmsall and South Kirkby Stanley and Outwood East Wakefield East Wakefield North Wakefield Rural Wakefield South Wakefield West Wrenthorpe and Outwood West Wakefield District Yorkshire & the Humber England Percentage of children in poverty 20.5% 11.0% 17.0% 21.1% 24.3% 8.5% 30.5% 25.9% 11.1% 19.4% 35.0% 8.8% 20.4% 21.4% 20.9% Source: NI 116 HMRC 2008 At sub ward level there are even greater concentrations and more localised data sources reveal even wider disparities. Child poverty is spatially concentrated in some former coalfield areas and within Wakefield’s inner urban areas and outlying social estates. The Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index (IDACI) was published alongside the Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) 2010. The purpose of the IDACI is to capture the proportion of children experiencing income deprivation in a small area. The IDACI comprises the percentage of children under 16 living in families reliant on various means tested benefits as a proportion of all children aged 0-15 and is calculated at Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) level. Thirty-four of the district’s 209 LSOAs are ranked in the 20% most deprived nationally under this measure. Children living in one LSOA in Castleford experience the highest levels of income deprivation with 62% of the child population living in households reliant on various means tested benefits. The 2009 Child Wellbeing Index, produced by Communities and Local Government (CLG), looks at various factors relating to child wellbeing including housing, education, health, material wellbeing and education. Out of a total of 354 districts Wakefield was placed 334th in the health and disability ranks, making it the lowest placed district within the Leeds City Region and 21st lowest in the country as a whole. The Annual Population Survey estimates over 19% of children living in working age families in the Wakefield district live in workless households compared with 18% for the region and 16% for England as a whole. However, the share of children living in working households at 53% is higher than the regional and national averages (51% respectively). Some 28% of children live in households where a household member is working and workless which is lower than the regional (31%) and national (33%) rates. 43 % children Figure 30 Percentage of children living in households by combined economic activity status of household members: January-December 2009 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Working Households Mixed Households Workless Households England 50.7 32.9 16.4 Y&H 50.7 31.2 18.2 Wakefield 53.1 27.6 19.4 Source: Annual Population Survey Since 2004, the proportion of children living in working households has fallen by 10.2 percentage points from 63.3% to 53.1% in 2009. Furthermore, the share of children living in mixed and workless households has increased. The rise in the rate of children living in workless households has risen sharply since 2007 due to the impact of the economic downturn. Figure 31 Percentage of children living in households in the Wakefield District by combined economic activity status of household members: 2004 to 2009 70.0 60.0 % children 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Working Households 63.3 56.4 62.1 57.5 55.8 53.1 Mixed Households 22.7 30.2 24.7 30.7 31.6 27.6 Workless Households 14.1 13.5 13.2 11.8 12.5 19.4 Source: Annual Population Survey 44 9 References Office for National Statistics (2010) Population estimates for UK, England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. The estimated resident population of an area includes all people who usually live there, whatever their nationality. Available at http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/product.asp?vlnk=15106 Office for National Statistics (2007) Resident Population Estimates by Ethnic Group (experimental). Available at http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/product.asp?vlnk=14238 Wakefield Council (2011) Bi-annual count of gypsy and traveller caravans. Unpublished data collected for the Department for Communities and Local Government. Latest data from DCLG available at http://www.communities.gov.uk/publications/corporate/statistics/caravancountjul2010 Local Government Association (2011) Workers Registration Scheme data. Available at http://www.lga.gov.uk/lga/core/page.do?pageId=1095223 Home Office (2011) Control of immigration: quarterly statistical summaries,. Available at http://rds.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/immigration-asylum-stats.html Wakefield Council (2009) Local Development Framework Core Strategy. Available at http://www.wakefield.gov.uk/Planning/SpatialPolicy/pub_LDF/CoreStrategy/default.htm Wakefield Council (2010) Draft Index of Multiple Deprivation 2010 Wakefield District. Bailey, N. and Livingston, M. (2007) Population turnover and area deprivation. Joseph Rowntree Foundation: York. Office for National Statistics (2010) 2008-based Sub-National Population Projections for England (SNPP). Available at http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/product.asp?vlnk=997 Wakefield Council and Wakefield District NHS Primary Care Trust (2009) ‘Developing Healthier Communities’ The Joint Strategic Needs Assessment for Wakefield 2008-2011. Available at http://www.wakefield.gov.uk/NR/rdonlyres/7A0CE03D-B2A9-4578-BB4C54B6BC412688/0/Joint_strategic_needs_assessment_May09.pdf 45