Deliverable D430.1-2 Ref CARBONES-D430.1-2 Date 10/03/2013 Page 1/30 Error estimation: parameter error on base configuration and error on output field Table of content 1 Introduction ____________________________________________________________ 2 2 Description of the approach _________________________ Error! Bookmark not defined. 3 Result of the forward simulations ____________________ Error! Bookmark not defined. 4 Conclusions______________________________________ Error! Bookmark not defined. 5 References _____________________________________________________________ 23 1 Deliverable D430.1-2 Ref CARBONES-D430.1-2 Date 10/03/2013 Page 2/30 1 Introduction 2 Principle of error calculation and error propagation The posterior error variance-covariance matrix Pb' on the estimated parameters expresses as a function of the a priori error variance-covariance matrices on the parameters Pb and on the observations R, as well as the Jacobian matrix of the model H (a preciser comme tu veux): Pb ' H t .R 1 .H Pb 1 1 The error on the model parameters can be propagated into the space of the net CO2 fluxes using the following matrix product: R' H .Pb '.H t In this study, we compare the estimation of R' accounting either 1) for the a priori estimate of B (hence Rprior') or 2) the posteriori error variance-covariance matrix on the parameters after optimisation (Rpost'). The square root of the diagonal elements of R' correspond to the standard deviation on NEE of each pixel. In order to appraise the knowledge improvement brought by the assimilation the assimilation, the error reduction is determined as 1 posterior prior . We also evaluate the benefit of the assimilation by investigation two temporal scales, the yearly error and the monthly error (with a focus on January and July) on NEE. 3 Parameter errors estimated after MODIS-NDVI and FluxNEt data assimilation The errors discussed in this section correspond to those obtained after the step 2… 3.1 Tropical broadleaf evergreen forests 2 Deliverable D430.1-2 Ref CARBONES-D430.1-2 Date 10/03/2013 Page 3/30 Figure 3.1: Values and uncertainties of optimized parameters for tropical evergreen forest: The a priori is in grey (with several value when the parameter is not generic across sites), the multi-site optimization (MS) is in black, and the monosite optimizations are in colors (see the legend). Figure 3.1 Left: Error correlation matrix for the optimized parameters; Top Right: annual mean fluxes for each site for the observations, the prior model (in grey) and the optimized model (in blue); Bottom Right: Error on the annual fluxes estimated from the parameters error covariance matrix for prior (in grey) and posterior (in blue) error matrix. 3 Deliverable D430.1-2 Ref CARBONES-D430.1-2 Date 10/03/2013 Page 3.2 Temperate coniferous evergreen forests Figure 3.1: Same as figure 3.1 but for Temperate coniferous evergreen forests 4 4/30 Deliverable D430.1-2 Ref CARBONES-D430.1-2 Date 10/03/2013 Page 5/30 Figure 3.2 Left: Same as figure 3.2 but for temperate coniferous evergreen forest 3.3 Temperate broadleaf evergreen forests 5 Deliverable D430.1-2 Ref CARBONES-D430.1-2 Date 10/03/2013 Page 6/30 Figure 3.1: Same as figure 3.1 but for Temperate broadleaf evergreen forests. Figure 3.3 Left: Same as figure 3.2 but for temperate broadleaf evergreen forests. 6 Deliverable D430.1-2 Ref CARBONES-D430.1-2 Date 10/03/2013 Page 3.4 7/30 Temperate broadleaf deciduous forests Figure 3.1: Same as figure 3.1 but for Temperate broadleaf deciduous forests. 7 Deliverable D430.1-2 Ref CARBONES-D430.1-2 Date 10/03/2013 Page 8/30 Figure 3.4 Left: Same as figure 3.2 but for temperate broadleaf evergreen forests. 3.5 Boreal coniferous evergreen forests 8 Deliverable D430.1-2 Ref CARBONES-D430.1-2 Date 10/03/2013 Page 9/30 Figure 3.1: Same as figure 3.1 but for Boreal coniferous evergreen forests. Figure 3.5 Left: Same as figure 3.2 but for Boreal coniferous evergreen forests. 9 Deliverable D430.1-2 Ref CARBONES-D430.1-2 Date 10/03/2013 Page 3.6 10/30 Boreal broadleaf deciduous forests Figure 3.1: Same as figure 3.1 but for Boreal Broadleaf deciduous forests. 10 Deliverable D430.1-2 Ref CARBONES-D430.1-2 Date 10/03/2013 Page 11/30 Figure 3.2: Same as figure 3.2 but for Boreal Broadleaf deciduous forests. 3.7 C3 grassland 11 Deliverable D430.1-2 Ref CARBONES-D430.1-2 Date 10/03/2013 Page 12/30 Figure 3.2: Same as figure 3.1 but for C3 grassland. 12 Deliverable D430.1-2 Ref CARBONES-D430.1-2 Date 10/03/2013 Page 13/30 Figure 3.2: Same as figure 3.2 but for C3 grassland. 4 Analysis of ORCHIDEE model structural error 5 Error on global carbon fluxes 13 Deliverable D430.1-2 Ref CARBONES-D430.1-2 Date 10/03/2013 Page 14/30 Figure 1 presents the map of the optimised annual NEE fluxes after assimilation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, to which we can compare the prior and posterior error on NEE. Figure 6: Global map of the optimised NEE fluxes after assimilation of atmospheric CO2 concetrations (kgC/m2/year). In the following, we consider two cases depending on the number of parameters let free during the assimilation of flux tower data. As a consequence, we have accounted for two Jacobian of the ORCHIDEE model in the determination of the R' matrices. They have been determined for the same vegetation types than the ones considered in the flux tower assimilation (that is 7 among 12): Tropical broad-leaved evergreen, Tropical broad-leaved raingreen, Temperate needleleaf evergreen, Temperate broad-leaved summergreen, Boreal needleleaf evergreen, Boreal broad-leaved summergreen and C3 grass. As expected (from the analytical expression of R'), the case with the higher of free parameters lead to higher errors on the NEE fluxes. On the yearly error maps, we see that the prior errors are higher in the tropics (in particular over Amazonia) and at high latitudes. The spatial structure is tightly linked to the PFT distribution as seen in Figure…: the high errors over the tropics correspond to Tropical Broad-leaved Evergreen 14 Deliverable D430.1-2 Ref CARBONES-D430.1-2 Date 10/03/2013 Page 15/30 vegetation; at high latitudes, they are associated to mixed ecosystems of Boreal Broad-leaved Summergreen and C3 grass species. The analysis of the monthly error maps allows understanding to which processes are related the error given that the heterotrophic respiration dominates over photosynthesis at mid and high latitudes in January, while the respective proportion of these two processes on the NEE balance has little temporal variation. Hence, the high errors seen over Europe in January is attributed to heterotrophic respiration. The spread of the error pattern from East to West is strongly correlated to the vegetation map of C3 agriculture ecosystems, that have not been accounted for here for the determination of H. CAS PEU DE PARAMETRES (configuration assimilation 20 ans) 15 Deliverable D430.1-2 Ref CARBONES-D430.1-2 Date 10/03/2013 Page 16 16/30 Deliverable D430.1-2 Ref CARBONES-D430.1-2 Date 10/03/2013 Page 17 17/30 Deliverable D430.1-2 Ref CARBONES-D430.1-2 Date 10/03/2013 Page CAS PLEIN DE PARAMETRES 18 18/30 Deliverable D430.1-2 Ref CARBONES-D430.1-2 Date 10/03/2013 Page 19 19/30 Deliverable D430.1-2 Ref CARBONES-D430.1-2 Date 10/03/2013 Page 20 20/30 Deliverable D430.1-2 Ref CARBONES-D430.1-2 Date 10/03/2013 Page 21 21/30 Deliverable D430.1-2 Ref CARBONES-D430.1-2 Date 10/03/2013 Page 22/30 Tropical broad-leaved evergreen Tropical broad-leaved raingreen Temperate needleleaf evergreen Temperate broad-leaved summergreen Boreal needleleaf evergreen Boreal broad-leaved summergreen C3 grass 22 Deliverable D430.1-2 Ref CARBONES-D430.1-2 Date 10/03/2013 Page 23/30 6 Conclusion and perspectives Maybe mention the expected climate change from the optimize parameter run compared to the standard run using the beta factor … 7 References 8 Annexes 23 Deliverable D430.1-2 Ref CARBONES-D430.1-2 Date 10/03/2013 Page 24 24/30 Deliverable D430.1-2 Ref CARBONES-D430.1-2 Date 10/03/2013 Page 25 25/30 Deliverable D430.1-2 Ref CARBONES-D430.1-2 Date 10/03/2013 Page 26 26/30 Deliverable D430.1-2 Ref CARBONES-D430.1-2 Date 10/03/2013 Page 27 27/30 Deliverable D430.1-2 Ref CARBONES-D430.1-2 Date 10/03/2013 Page 28 28/30 Deliverable D430.1-2 Ref CARBONES-D430.1-2 Date 10/03/2013 Page 29 29/30 Deliverable D430.1-2 Ref CARBONES-D430.1-2 Date 10/03/2013 Page 30 30/30