CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADAPTATION ON SELECTED CROPS IN SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES Norma U. Gomez, PhD. ABSTRACT This study assessed the vulnerability of the farmer-respondents in Southern Philippines, specifically Region XI and XII to climate change. This study conducted an empirical analysis of the impact of climate change on maize (Zea mays), banana (Musa sapientum), and durian (Durio zibethinus) production. Furthermore, it estimated the determinants of adaptation to climate change and its corresponding effect on farm productivity. The analysis used primary data from 541 farmer-respondents producing maize, banana, and durian in the six provinces, eighteen municipalities of the sample areas. Based on the probit estimate results, farmers adaptation decisions were influenced by information about future climate change conditions, social capital, access to formal extension and farmer-to-farmer extension. We also found from the Stochastic Frontier Estimation in the production function that climate change adaptations exerted a significant impact on farm productivity. It helped in coping with the adverse effects and risk of climate change while increasing agricultural productivities of the farmerrespondents. Strengthening of the Department of Agriculture extension program to the farmers in the study sites and strengthening the social network or capital will be very helpful in equipping the farmers in the study sites against the adverse effects of climate change. Key words: Climate change, adaptation, probit estimate, production function, stochastic frontier estimation, Southern Philippines 1 1. INTRODUCTION The Philippine agriculture sector contributes 12.31% of 2010 Gross Domestic Product according to a World Bank report. The biggest contributors to growth were palay, maize, poultry and livestock (NSCB, 2010). The agriculture sector employs 36.1% of the population (Anonymous, 2009. UN data/country profile/Philippines). The contribution of the agricultural sector to the total economy, however, is challenged by its vulnerability to climate change. It is because agriculture is arguably the most important sector of the economy that is highly dependent on climate. Agriculture systems are vulnerable to variability in climate, whether naturally-forced, or due to human activities. Climate change extremes have been manifested in the Philippines such as floods and droughts. The disasters these have brought have caused losses amounting to billions of pesos. The decline in production and productivity will possibly threaten the country’s food security. Climate change is a serious risk to poverty reduction and threatens to undo decades of development effort. Climate change will generally reduce production potential and increase risk of hunger and starvation. Vulnerability can be viewed as a function of the sensitivity of agriculture to changes in climate, the adaptive capacity of the system and the degree of the exposure to climate hazards (IPCC 2001b, p.89). Luers et al. (2003) proposed a method for quantifying vulnerability (given the system, outcome variable, and stressor of concern) based on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. In the IPCC report, exposure is defined as “the nature and the degree to which a system is exposed to significant climatic variations,” sensitivity is defined as “the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially; by climate-related stimuli,” and 2 adaptive capacity is defined as “the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes), to moderate the potential damage from it, to take advantage of its opportunities, or to cope with its consequences.” Turner et al (2003) recognized that vulnerability is determined not by exposure to hazards (perturbations and stresses) alone, but also depends on the sensitivity and resilience of the system that is experiencing such hazards. These authors developed an integrated conceptual framework of vulnerability built on these three major dimensions of vulnerability, namely, exposure, sensitivity and adaptation/resilience. The level of vulnerability of different social groups to climate change is determined by both socio-economic and environmental factors. The selection of indicators was done through an extensive review of previous reports; in particular, the socio-economic factors most cited in the literature and are used as indicators in this study included income and education (Cutter et al. 2003; Adger 1996; Haan et al 2001), social networks (Vincent et al. 2010; Gbetibouo et al. 2009; Deressa et al., 2008; Ford, Barry and Wandel, 2005), access to formal and non-formal credit, farm income and farm size (Gbetobouo et al., 2009), perception about preparedness, and amount of fertilizer used (www.icrisat.org). The environmental attributes used as indicators in this study included change in temperature and precipitation (Gbetibouo et al. 2009 and Deressa et al. 2008). There are many conceptual methodological approaches to vulnerability analysis. The major ones include the socioeconomic, biophysical, and integrated approaches. The biophysical approach assesses the level of damage that a given environmental stress causes on both social and biological systems. The biophysical, or impact assessment, approach is mainly concerned with the physical impact of climate change on different attributes, such as yield and income (Fussel and Klein, 2006). Although very informative, the biophysical approach has its limitations. The major limitation it focuses mainly on the physical damages, such as yield, 3 income, and so on. For example, a study on the impact of climate change on yield can show the reduction in yield due to simulated climatic variables such as increased temperature or reduced precipitation. In other words, these simulations can provide the quantities of yield reduced due to climate change but they do not show what that particular reduction means for different people. There had been extensive research on the impacts of the climate change, but little attention was devoted to the socio-economic aspects of the vulnerability and risks of climate change in major food crops such as corn, durian, and banana in Region XI and XII, Philippines. To fill this empirical gap, this study carries out a socio-economic analysis of the vulnerability and risk of climate change in Regions XI and XII agricultural sectors at the farm level. To bring more insights into adaptation strategies that are crucial to coping with climatic variability and change, this study also investigates key factors that govern farmers’ decisions to use climate change adaptations and the impact of this action on food production. The objectives of this research were to measure and analyze the vulnerability of the farmers to climate change, to capture farmers’ perceptions and understanding of climate change as well as their approaches and adaptations, to investigate key factors that govern farmers’ decisions to use climate change adaptations and the impact that conveys action on food production, and to provide estimates of the determinants of adaptation to climate change and the implications of these strategies on farm productivity. 4 2. DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY AREA The study was undertaken in the major areas of maize, durian, and banana in Southern Philippines, specifically these are in Region XI and XII. The grouping of sample areas are shown below: Region XI Provinces: 1) Davao del Sur, 2) Davao del Norte, and 3) Compostela Valley. The total land area is 11,098.43 sq. km. Region XII Provinces: 1) North Cotabato, 2) South Cotabato, and 3) Sultan Kudarat. The total land area is 14, 819 sq. km. The study areas are depicted in Figure 1. 3. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK 3.1. The Econometrics Approach The theoretical model presented here was adopted from the work of Yesuf et al (2008). We framed our analysis using the standard theory of technology adoption, wherein the problem facing a representative risk-averse farm household was to choose a mix of climate change adaptation strategies that will maximize the expected utility from final wealth at the end of the production period. Assuming that the utility function is state independent, solving this problem would give an optimal mix of adaptation measures undertaken by the representative farm household, as given by Aht A x hth , x htl , x htc ; E ht (1) Where A is household h adaptation strategy at time t; x hth , x htl , x htc are household characteristics, land and other characteristics, and climate variables, respectively; β is the vector of parameters; 5 and ht is the household-specific random error term. Households will choose adaptation strategy 1 over adaptation strategy 2 if and only if the expected utility from adaptation strategy 1 is greater than from adaptation strategy 2 – that is, EU A1 EU A2 . A probit regression fit our data to estimate determinants of adaptation as specified in equation ( 1 ). This study’s central focus was to investigate whether climate change and adaptation have any impact on food production, with adaptation measured by a dummy variable entered into a standard household production function, y ht ; y ht f x hts , x htc , Aht , y ht (2) Where x hts , x htc , rht are conventional inputs, climatic factors, and climate change adaptation measure, respectively; y is a vector of parameters; and ht is a household-specific random error term. 4. METHODOLOGY Sampling Procedure. Maize, durian, and banana farmers were the target respondents for the study. A total of 541 farmers-respondents were picked from the study areas. The sampling technique employed was multistage stratified random sampling technique. As the study area was stratified first by province then by municipality and lastly by barangay. The first stage involved purposive selection of the vulnerable or barangays prone to climate change. The second stage was random sampling through selection of 541 farmers in the study areas. Source of Data. The project made use of both primary and secondary data. The secondary data used were from the socio-economic profile report of the six provinces and the base maps were from the different Provincial Agriculture Offices and Provincial Planning 6 Offices. Monthly precipitation and temperature data for the past 15 years were taken from the eight meteorological stations distributed across the regions which served as basis for the interpolation procedure (precipitation and temperature). The eight meteorological stations were PAGASA Synoptic Station in Gensan Airport, General Santos City; Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur, Butuan City Airport, Cagayan de Oro, Davao City, Davao Airport, Sasa, Davao City; PAGASA Agromet Station, USeP, Apokon, Tagum City; PAGASA Bukidnon, Malaybalay City; and DACEMIARC for Upland Plain Agromet Station in Balindog, Kidapawan City. The interpolated precipitation and temperature were used as variables in the probit regression model. Primary data were taken from the personal interview with the farmers making use of pretested questionnaires and interview schedule designed specifically for maize, durian, and banana farmer respondents. Data Analysis. The data obtained from the field survey were subjected to analysis using inferential statistics. A probit regression was used to estimate the determinants of adaptation. The Probit regression was utilized to determine the factors affecting adoption of adaptation measures against climate change. The decision to employ adaptation measures was assumed to a function of household characteristics (i.e. age, gender, marital status, literacy, farming experience, and household size), formal and informal institutional support (formal extension, farmer-to-farmer extension, access to credit, and social capital), climatic factors (i.e. precipitation level, temperature level, information about future climatic conditions) and the farm household’s agroecological setting. For this analysis, the data was run using data analysis and statistical software called (STATA). The estimated production function made use of the Stochastic Frontier 7 Estimation method. For this analysis, the data was run using data analysis and statistical software (FRONTIER version 4.1c). 5. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 5.1. Climate Change and Adaptation in the Study Sites In response to long-term actual experience changes in climate, the farmer-respondents in the study areas have undertaken a number of adaptation measures which were yield related. The adaptation measures adopted by the farmer-respondents in Region XI included tree planting (40%), provision of irrigation (18%), drainage or construction of canal (19%), and changing crop varieties (15%). On the other hand, the adaptation measures adopted by the farmer-respondents in Region XII included changing crop varieties (55%), tree planting (33%), and intercropping (30%). The non-yield related adaptation measures included sought off-farm activities e.g. driving and carpentry (Table 1). About 82% of the farmer-respondents in Region XI who did not adopt adaptation measures in response to climate change indicated lack of money as major reason for not doing so. This was followed by lack of information as reported by 59% of the farmer-respondents. On the other hand, 45% of the farmer-respondents in Region XII indicated they did not see the need to adopt adaptation or counter measures to climate change. Reasons for not adopting included lack of information (40%) and lack of money (29%). Overall, the predominant reasons of the farmer-respondents in Regions XI and XII not adopting adaptation measures were lack of money (59%) and lack of information (51%) as shown in Table 2. 8 Results of the study revealed that the farmer-respondents in both Regions XI and XII who have adopted climate change adaptation measures enjoyed higher average yield per hectare per year and average gross income per hectare per year than those who did not adopt adaptation measures. Specifically, the average yield per hectare per year of farmer-respondents in Region XI was 9,167 kg while those in Region XII was 8,111 kg. In contrast, the average yield per hectare per year of farmer-respondents who did not adopt adaptation measures in Regions XI and XII were 5,135 kg and 5,850 kg, respectively. Based on the marginal effect estimates of our results, farmer-respondents with climate change adaptation measures tended to produce about 4,032 kgs and 2,261 kg (in Regions XI and XII, respectively) or a greater average yield per hectare than those who did not adopt adaptation measures. On the other hand, the average gross income per hectare per year of adopters in Regions XI and XII were Php144,914 and Php120,354, respectively. This was higher compared to non-adopters whose average gross income per hectare per year were Php80,852 and Php90,027 in Regions XI and XII, respectively (Table 3). Overall, the pooled data revealed that both the average yield per hectare per year and average gross income per hectare per year of adopters was higher than the non-adopters. 5.2. Determinants of Climate Change Adaptation 5.2.1. Basic Descriptive Statistics of Sampled Farmer-Respondents Table 4 shows the basic descriptive statistics of the farmer-respondents in Region XI. The table reveals that the mean age of farmer-respondents was 48.67 years and had spent schooling for 9.5 years on the average. The mean number of years in farming was 18.8 years and the mean household size was 5. On the other hand, in terms of climatic factors, the results revealed that the average annual rainfall for the past 15 years was 191.44 mm and the average temperature, 9 27.410C. The farmer-respondents in Region XI had an average yield of 8,488.33 kgs/ha/yr. The amount of fertilizer used averaged at 744 kg/ha/yr while the amount of chemicals used averaged at 6.4 liters/ha/yr. The farmer-respondents in Region XI used labor at an average of 63 mandays/ha/yr. Table 5 shows the basic descriptive statistics of the sampled farmer-respondents in Region XII. The table reveals that the mean age of farmer-respondents was 48.81 years and spent schooling for 9.91 years on the average. The mean number of years in farming was 22.5 years and the mean household size, 5. On the other hand, in terms of climatic factors, the results revealed that the average annual rainfall for the past 15 years was 175.51 mm and the average temperature, 27.50C. The farmer-respondents in Region XII averaged of 7,769 kg/ha/yr yield. The amount of fertilizer used is averaged at 930.31 kg/ha/yr while the amount of chemicals used averaged at 6.78 liters/ha/yr. The farmer-respondents in Region XII used labor at an average of 63 man-days/ha/yr. The basic descriptive statistics of the sampled farmer-respondents in both regions XI and XII (pooled data) is shown in Table 6. It revealed that the mean age of farmer-respondents was 48.75 years and spent schooling for 9.75 years on the average. The mean number of years in farming was 20.71 years and the mean household size, 5. In terms of climatic factors, the pooled data revealed that the average annual rainfall for the past 15 years was 183.25 mm and the average temperature 27.460C. The pooled data revealed that the average yield of the farmerrespondent was 8,118.75 kg/ha/yr. The amount of fertilizer used averaged at 839.77 kg/ha/yr while the amount of chemicals applied averaged at 6.6 liters/ha/yr. The farmer-respondents in both regions used labor at an average of 63 man-days/ha/yr. 10 5.2.2. Probit Estimate of the Adaptation Regression Tables 7, 8, and 9 report the estimates of the empirical analysis. Table 7 presents the probit results of the adaptation regression. The results suggested that information about future climate change condition, number of relatives in a barangay, and access to formal credit tend to strongly governed each household’s adaptation decisions in Region XI. The afore said variables were statistically significant as indicated in the p-value (0.001, 0.008, and 0.04), significant at 0.01, 0.01 and 0.05 alpha level, respectively. These results are consistent with a similar study by Deressa et al. (2008), which used a multinomial logit model in the Nile Basin and the study by Yesuf et al (2008) which also used a probit regression model. Likewise, age, number of years in schooling, household size, and access to farmer-to-farmer extension were also significant variables that could affect the decision of the farmers to adopt the adaptation measure against climate change. There was a significant difference across the size of households. Larger households were more likely to adopt than were smaller households, highlighting the role of household labor on the adoption decision. Although age had a negative sign implying that as farmer’s age increased the chance of supporting and adopting the adaptation measures against climate change decreased. The full model registered an LR chi2 which was significant at 0.01 alpha level indicating that the full model fitted reasonably well (As seen in Table 7). On the other hand, Table 8 shows that access to future climatic condition, access to formal credit, access to formal extension and marital status of household head were significant variables that could affect the decision the of the farmers to adopt the adaptation 11 measures against climate change in Region XII. The full model registered an LR chi 2 which was significant at 0.10 alpha level. The probit estimates of the pooled data revealed that access to future climatic condition, average annual rainfall for 15 years, access to formal extension, household size, number of years in schooling, gently slope and age of household head tend to strongly govern each household adaptation decisions. Age of household head had a negative sign implying that as farmer’s age increased the chance of supporting and adopting the adaptation measures against climate change decreased. Furthermore, the average annual rainfall for 15 years also had a negative sign implying that as the average annual rainfall increased the chance of supporting and adopting the adaptation measures against climate change decreases (As seen in Table 9). The full model registered an LR chi2 which was significant at 0.05 alpha level indicating that the full model fitted reasonably well. 5.2.3. Estimated Production Function Maize in Regions XI and XII. Table 10 shows the estimated parameters of the production function of maize in Region XI using the Stochastic Frontier Estimation method. As shown in the table, all climatic factors and topography of the farm (agro-ecology) and the production inputs were highly significant, all estimates obtained p-value less than the 0.01 alpha level. The results showed that the estimated coefficient for adaptation was positive and statistically significant. Farmers who adopted climate change adaptation strategies had higher maize production than those who did not. Based on marginal effect estimates of our results, households with climate change adaptation measures tended to produce about 4,032 kgs more crops per hectare than did those who did not take such measures. In other words, the effect of climate change are expected to be reduced by such a magnitude if households followed 12 adaptation measures. All the conventional inputs exhibited signs consistent with predictions of economic theory, and all are statistically significant. As expected, more use of fertilizers, chemicals and labor tended to increase maize production. Finally, the Gamma coefficient was also statistically significant at 0.01 alpha level indicating that the stochastic frontier model reasonably fitted the data. Table 11 shows the estimated parameters of the production function of maize in Region XII using Stochastic Frontier Estimation method. The results showed that the estimated coefficient for average annual rainfall was negative and statistically significant at 0.05 alpha level. This implied that too much precipitation affected maize production negatively in Region XII. In terms of topography ( highland, midland, rolling, and gently sloped) were negative and statistically significant at 0.05 and 0.10 alpha level. Higher topography affected maize production negatively. Inputs like chemicals and labor were statistically significant at 0.01 and 0.05 alpha level, respectively. This implied that more labor and chemicals tended to increase maize production. Finally, the Gamma coefficient was also statistically significant at 0.01 alpha level indicating that the stochastic frontier model reasonably fitted the data. Banana in Regions XI and XII. The estimated parameter of the production function of banana in Region XI is shown in Table 12. As shown in the table, the estimated coefficient for adaptation is positive and statistically significant at 0.10 alpha level. This implied that farmers who adopted climate change adaptation strategies had higher production than those who did not. All the conventional inputs exhibited signs consistent with predictions of economic theory, and all are statistically significant at 0.01 alpha level. As expected, more use of fertilizers, chemicals, and labor tended to increase banana production. Finally, the Gamma coefficient was also statistically significant at 0.01 alpha level indicating that the stochastic frontier model 13 reasonably fitted the data. Table 13 shows the estimated parameters of the production function of banana in Region XII. The results showed that the estimated coefficient for average annual rainfall was positively and statistically significant at 0.05 alpha level. This implied that more precipitation will affect banana production positively in Region XII. The Gamma coefficient was also statistically significant at 0.01 alpha level indicating that the stochastic frontier model reasonably fitted the data. Durian in Regions XI and XII. The estimated parameter of the production function of durian in Region XI is shown in Table 14. As shown in the table, the estimated coefficient for temperature was negative and statistically significant at 0.01 alpha level. This implied that higher temperature tended to decrease durian production. In terms of topography, highland was negatively and statistically significant at 0.01 alpha level. This implied that higher topography affected durian production negatively. On the other hand, labor input was statistically significant at 0.01 alpha level. This implied that more labor tended to increase durian production. Finally, the Gamma coefficient was also statistically significant at 0.01 alpha level indicating that the stochastic frontier model reasonably fitted the data. Table 15 shows the estimated parameters of the production function of durian in Region XII. The results showed that the estimated coefficient for adaptation was positive and statistically significant at 0.01 alpha level. This implied that farmers who adopted climate change adaptation strategies had higher production than those who did not. Furthermore, the results showed that the estimated coefficient for average temperature was positive and statistically significant at 0.10 alpha level. This implied that higher temperature tended to increase durian production. In terms of inputs, amount of chemicals used was negative and statistically significant at 0.10 alpha level. This implied that more amount of chemicals used 14 tended to decrease durian production. Finally, the Gamma coefficient is also statistically significant at 0.01 alpha level indicating that the stochastic frontier model reasonably fitted the data. Pooled Data in Regions XI and XII. Table 16 shows the estimated parameters of the production function of the pooled data in Region XI using Stochastic Frontier Estimation method. As shown in the table, the estimated coefficient for adaptation is positive and statistically significant at 0.05 alpha level. This implied that farmers who adopted climate change adaptation strategies had higher production than those who did not. Based on marginal effect estimates of our results, households with climate change adaptation measures tended to produce about 4,032 kg more crops per hectare than did those who did not take such measures. In other words, the effect of climate change is expected to reduce by such a magnitude if households took adaptation measures. The results showed that the estimated coefficient for average annual rainfall was positively and statistically significant at 0.05 alpha level. This implied that more precipitation will affect crop production positively in Region XI. In like manner, the estimated coefficient for labor input was positive and highly significant at 0.01 alpha level. This implied that more labor tended to increase crop production in Region XI. Table 17 shows the estimated parameters of the production function of the pooled data in Region XII. As shown in the table, the estimated coefficient for adaptation is positive and statistically significant at 0.05 alpha level. This implied that farmers who adopted climate change adaptation strategies had higher production than those who did not. Based on marginal effect estimates of our results, households with climate change adaptation measures tended to produce about 2,261 kg more crops per hectare than those who did not take such measures. In other words, the negative effect of climate change will be reduced by such a magnitude if 15 households took adaptation measures. In terms of labor input, the estimated coefficient for labor input was positive and statistically significant at 0.05 alpha level. This implied that more labor tended to increase crop production in Region XII. For Overall Pooled Data of Both Regions. Table 18 shows the estimated parameters of the production function for the overall pooled data of both regions using Stochastic Frontier Estimation method. As shown in the table, the estimated coefficient for adaptation was positive and statistically significant at 0.05 alpha level. This implied that farmers who adopted climate change adaptation strategies had higher crop production than those who did not. Based on marginal effects estimates of our results, households in both Regions XI and XII with climate change adaptation measures tended to produce about 3,135 kgs more crops per hectare than did those who did not take such measures. In other words, the effect of climate change will be reduced by such a magnitude if households took adaptation measures. The estimated coefficients for average annual rainfall and average temperature were negative and statistically significant at 0.05 and 0.10 alpha level, respectively. This implied that too much precipitation and high average temperature tended to decrease crop production in the study sites. Similarly, the estimated coefficient for topography, specifically highland was negative and highly significant. This implied that higher topography tended to decrease crop production. The estimated coefficient for labor input was positive and highly significant. This implied that more labor affected crop production positively in both Regions XI and XII. Finally, the Gamma coefficient was also statistically significant at 0.01 alpha level indicating that the stochastic frontier model reasonably fitted the data. 16 6. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS The following points can be inferred based on the results and analysis made in the study: 1) Based on the probit results of the adaptation regression, information about future climate change condition, number of relatives in a barangay, access to farmer-tofarmer extension, number of years in schooling, household size, and access to formal credit tended to strongly govern each household’s adaptation decisions in Region XI. 2) For Region XII, access to future climatic condition, and access to formal extension tended to strongly govern each household’s adaptation decisions. For the pooled data, the factors which strongly govern each household’s adaptation decisions were access to future climatic condition, access to formal extension, household size, and number of years in schooling. This result underlines the need to provide appropriate and timely information on future climate changes to farmers in order to increase their level of awareness and preparedness and to alert them to take appropriate averting actions. 3) The fact that access to credit markets, social ties and networks, government or formal extension, and farmer-to-farmer extension were significant in the probit model indicated the role of both formal and informal institutions in addressing the issues of climate change adaptations in the study sites. Strengthening of the Department of Agriculture extension program to the farmers in the study sites and strengthening the social network or capital will be very helpful in equipping the farmers in the study sites against the adverse effects of climate change. 17 ACKNOWLEDGMENT: acknowledged. The helpful comments of the anonymous reviewers are fully Funding for this research was provided by the Philippine Department of Agriculture – Bureau of Agricultural Research (DA-BAR). Figure I. The study sites 18 Table 1. Adaptation measures against climate change by the farmer- respondents in Regions XI and XII, Philippines, 2011- 2012 Adaptation Measures Yield Related Changing crop varieties Cover cropping Adapting water and soil conservation Mulching Water harvesting Intercropping Tree planting Drainage or construction of canal Changing planting and harvesting schedule Provide irrigation Condition the life of plant or nutritional management Others Non- Yield Related Smoking Sought off- farm activities Carboning Migrated to urban area Proper segregation of waste Composting Others Region XI Frequency (n=214) % Region XII Frequency (n=240 ) % Pooled Data Frequency (n=547) % 32 4 15 2 133* 15 55 6 165* 19 33 4 17 18 3 67* 85* 8 8 1 31 40 19 27 11 73* 79* 8 11 4.6 30 33 36 45 14 140* 164* 7 9 3 28 32 38 18 18 8 56 11 10 38 5 18 22 16 9 7 32 54 6 11 9 23 4.2 11 22 9 9 4 31 32 6 6 11 1 1 1 17 5 1 5 .5 .5 .5 8 2 .5 19 17 3 4 24 17 11 8 7 1 2 10 7 5 30 18 4 5 41 22 12 6 4 .8 1 8 4 2 * multiple responses 19 Table 2. Reasons for not adopting adaptation measures as reported by the farmer respondents in Regions XI and XII, Philippines, 2011- 2012 Reasons 1.Lack of Information 2.Lack of Money/ Finances 3.Labor shortage 4.Land shortage 5.Water Shortage 6.Lack of Credit 7.Do not see the need 8.Others Region XI Frequency (n=49 ) % 29* 59 40* 82 2 4 6 12 4 8 6 12 13 27 6 12 Region XII Frequency (n=38 ) % 15* 40 11 29 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 17* 45 3 8 Pooled Data Frequency (n=87) % 44* 51 51* 59 2 2 6 7 5 6 6 7 30* 34 9 10 * multiple responses 20 Table 4. Basic descriptive statistics of sampled farm households in Region XI, 2011-2012 Philippines, Mean Std. Dev. Minimu m Maximu m 48.6768 0.6236 13.0871 0.4854 17 0 79 1 0.8783 9.5323 18.8023 4.9354 0.3275 3.8241 14.2355 2.0968 0 0 1 1 1 18 62 17 0.7034 0.5894 0.2243 0.2586 72.27 0.4576 0.4929 0.4179 0.4387 106.5893 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 700 191.4419 27.4197 0.9392 0.8327 25.2419 0.2088 0.2395 0.3740 155.02 27.21 0 0 216.97 27.7 1 1 0.6160 0.0304 0.2814 0.0570 0.0076 0.4873 0.1721 0.4505 0.2324 0.0870 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 Yield ( kg/ha.year) 8,488.334 6 126 537,600 Amount of Fertilizer used ( kg/ha.year) 744.0760 0 14,400 Labor used ( man.days/ha.year) Amount of Chemicals used used (l/ha.year) 63.0152 6.3908 33,367.3 068 1,350.91 53 83.8425 10.1825 2 0 844 80 Variables Household/head characteristics Age of household head (years) Gender of the household head (1 = male) Marital status of household head (1 = married) Number of years in schooling (years) Number of years in farming (years) Household size Access to formal and informal institutional support Access to formal extension (1 = yes) Farmer-to-farmer extension (1 = yes) Access to formal credit (1 = yes) Access to non-formal credit (1 = yes) Number of relatives in a Barangay Climatic factors and adaptation Average annual rainfall for 15 years (mm) Average temperature (°C) Access to future climatic condition (1 = yes) Adopt adaptation measure against climate change (1 = yes) Topography of the farm Flat (1 = yes) Gently Slope (1 = yes) Rolling (1 = yes) Midland (1 = yes) Highland (1 = yes) Production variables 21 Table 5. Basic descriptive statistics of sampled farm households in Region XII, Philippines, 2011-2012. Mean Std. Dev. Minimu m Maximu m 48.8165 0.6007 11.6844 0.4906 22 0 76 1 0.8957 0.3062 0 1 9.9119 22.5270 4.8885 3.1134 13.9801 1.7819 0 1 1 16 60 12 0.8309 0.6871 0.2698 0.3669 80.6583 0.3755 0.4645 0.4446 0.4828 92.3808 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 500 175.5076 27.5010 0.9568 0.8489 32.5661 0.1315 0.2036 0.3588 119.82 27.39 0 0 200.12 27.71 1 1 0.6619 0.1223 0.2122 0.0108 0.0036 0.4739 0.3282 0.4096 0.1035 0.0600 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 Yield ( kg/ha.year) 7,769.118 7 150 38,400 Amount of Fertilizer used ( kg/ha.year) 930.3129 0 9,600 Labor used ( man.days/ha.year) Amount of Chemicals used used (l/ha.year) 63.4433 6.7815 6,559.86 97 1,004.61 72 47.2874 7.0049 0 0 277 56 Variables Household/head characteristics Age of household head (years) Gender of the household head (1 = male) Marital status of household head (1 = married) Number of years in schooling (years) Number of years in farming (years) Household size Access to formal and informal institutional support Access to formal extension (1 = yes) Farmer-to-farmer extension (1 = yes) Access to formal credit (1 = yes) Access to non-formal credit (1 = yes) Number of relatives in a Barangay Climatic factors and adaptation Average annual rainfall for 15 years (mm) Average temperature (°C) Access to future climatic condition (1 = yes) Adopt adaptation measure against climate change (1 = yes) Topography of the farm Flat (1 = yes) Gently Slope (1 = yes) Rolling (1 = yes) Midland (1 = yes) Highland (1 = yes) Production variables 22 Table 6. Basic descriptive statistics of sampled farm households (pooled data) Mean Std. Dev. Minimu m Maximu m 48.7486 0.61183 12.3748 0.487785 17 0 79 1 0.887246 0.316585 0 1 9.7491 20.7052 4.911275 3.4754 14.2196 1.939712 0 1 1 18 62 17 0.7689 0.6396 0.24768 0.3142 76.1183 0.4219 0.4806 0.432072 0.4646 95.60544 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 500 183.2539 27.4615 0.9482 0.8410 30.2771 0.1780 0.2217 0.3660 119.82 27.21 0 0 216.97 27.71 1 1 0.63956 0.0776 0.2458 0.0333 0.0055 0.4806 0.2678 0.4310 0.1795 0.0743 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 Yield ( kg/ha.year) 8,118.756 0 126 537,600 Amount of Fertilizer used ( kg/ha.year) 839.7763 0 14,400 Labor used ( man.days/ha.year) Amount of Chemicals used used (l/ha.year) 63.2352 6.5916 23,714.9 178 1,188.20 90 67.5109 8.6899 0 0 844 80 Variables Household/head characteristics Age of household head (years) Gender of the household head (1 = male) Marital status of household head (1 = married) Number of years in schooling (years) Number of years in farming (years) Household size Access to formal and informal institutional support Access to formal extension (1 = yes) Farmer-to-farmer extension (1 = yes) Access to formal credit (1 = yes) Access to non-formal credit (1 = yes) Number of relatives in a Barangay Climatic factors and adaptation Average annual rainfall for 15 years (mm) Average temperature (°C) Access to future climatic condition (1 = yes) Adopt adaptation measure against climate change (1 = yes) Topography of the farm Flat (1 = yes) Gently Slope (1 = yes) Rolling (1 = yes) Midland (1 = yes) Highland (1 = yes) Production variables 23 Table 7. The determinants of on climate adaptation: Probit estimates (Region XI), Philippines, 2011-2012 Variables Estimated Coefficient 9.1655 Constant Household/head characteristics Age of household head (years) -0.0180** Gender of the household head (1 = male) -0.0809 Marital status of household head (1 = 0.3825 married) Number of years in schooling (years) 0.0413* Number of years in farming (years) 0.0004 Household size 0.1069** Access to formal and informal institutional support Access to formal extension (1 = yes) 0.16582 Farmer-to-farmer extension (1 = yes) 0.36162* Access to formal credit (1 = yes) 0.62826*** Access to non-formal credit (1 = yes) 0.00066 Number of relatives in a Barangay -0.00240**** Climatic factors and adaptation Average annual rainfall for 15 years (mm) -0.00313 Average temperature (°C) -0.32274 Access to future climatic condition (1 = 1.20817**** yes) Topography of the farm Flat (1 = yes) 0.34301 Gently Slope (1 = yes) 0.03483 Rolling (1 = yes) 0.81919 Midland (1 = yes) 0.38092 Highland (1 = yes) 2.7500 2 2 LR chi (18) = 45.48; Prob> chi = 0.0004; Pseudo R2 = 0.192 ****Significant @ 0.01 probability level *** Significant @ 0.05 probability level ** Significant @ 0.10 probability level * Significant @ 0.20% probability level Standard Error 23.4975 p-value 0.696 0.01026 0.23924 0.080 0.735 0.30400 0.208 0.03219 0.00873 0.05890 0.199 0.963 0.069 0.23694 0.24286 0.30644 0.26893 0.00091 0.484 0.136 0.040 0.998 0.008 0.00683 0.81550 0.646 0.692 0.36446 0.001 1.03065 1.19441 1.04939 1.12639 12.777 0.739 0.977 0.435 0.735 0.716 24 Table 8. The determinants of on climate adaptation: Probit estimates (Region XII), Philippines, 2011-2012 Variables Estimated Coefficient Constant -61.1591 Household/head characteristics Age of household head (years) -0.0066 Gender of the household head (1 = male) 0.0882 Marital status of household head (1 = married) -0.9196** Number of years in schooling (years) -0.0414 Number of years in farming (years) 0.0056 Household size -0.0215 Access to formal and informal institutional support Access to formal extension (1 = yes) 0.5071** Farmer-to-farmer extension (1 = yes) -0.2816 Access to formal credit (1 = yes) -0.5373** Access to non-formal credit (1 = yes) 0.3296 Number of relatives in a Barangay 0.0010 Climatic factors and adaptation Average annual rainfall for 15 years (mm) 0.00457 Average temperature (°C) 2.07947 Access to future climatic condition (1 = yes) 0.90956*** Topography of the farm Flat (1 = yes) 4.6631 Gently Slope (1 = yes) 5.2419 Rolling (1 = yes) 4.2987 Midland (1 = yes) 3.3690 Highland (1 = yes) 3.6685 2 2 2 LR chi (17) = 24.22; Prob> chi = 0.1135; Pseudo R = 0.1032 ****Significant @ 0.01 probability level *** Significant @ 0.05 probability level ** Significant @ 0.10 probability level * Significant @ 0.20% probability level Standard Error p-value 138.45 0.896 0.0124 0.2202 0.5516 0.0384 0.0596 0.0596 0.593 0.689 0.095 0.281 0.576 0.719 0.2962 0.2763 0.2844 0.2684 0.0012 0.087 0.308 0.059 0.219 0.393 0.0197 4.9015 0.4330 0.817 0.671 0.036 138.2474 138.242 138.2453 5.7961 8.2895 0.973 0.970 0.975 0.712 0.689 25 Table 9. The determinants of on climate adaptation: Probit estimates (Pooled Data) Variables Estimated Coefficient Constant 17.9844 Household/head characteristics Age of household head (years) -0.0131** Gender of the household head (1 = male) 0.1177 Marital status of household head (1 = married) -0.1378 Number of years in schooling (years) 0.0341* Number of years in farming (years) 0.0021 Household size 0.0514* Access to formal and informal institutional support Access to formal extension (1 = yes) 0.2511* Farmer-to-farmer extension (1 = yes) 0.1048 Access to formal credit (1 = yes) 0.0718 Access to non-formal credit (1 = yes) 0.0035 Number of relatives in a Barangay -0.0008 Climatic factors and adaptation Average annual rainfall for 15 years (mm) -0.0059* Average temperature (°C) -0.6240 Access to future climatic condition (1 = yes) 0.8781**** Topography of the farm Flat (1 = yes) 0.9369 Gently Slope (1 = yes) 1.1558* Rolling (1 = yes) 0.9538 Midland (1 = yes) 1.0976 Highland (1 = yes) 2.9494 LR chi2 (18) = 32.72; Prob> chi2 = 0.018; Pseudo R2 = 0.0692 ****Significant @ 0.01 probability level *** Significant @ 0.05 probability level ** Significant @ 0.10 probability level * Significant @ 0.20% probability level Standard Error p-value 20.0527 0.370 0.0072 0.1459 0.2316 0.0220 0.0060 0.0386 0.070 0.420 0.552 0.120 0.728 0.183 0.1707 0.1614 0.1803 0.1687 0.0007 0.141 0.516 0.690 0.983 0.215 0.0041 0.7029 0.2570 0.151 0.375 0.001 0.8236 0.8610 0.8329 0.9214 4.0817 0.255 0.179 0.252 0.234 0.7226 26 Table 10. Production model of maize (Region XI): Stochastic Frontier Estimation (MLE) Variables Coefficient Standard Errors p-value Constant Climatic factors and adaptation Average annual rainfall for 15 years (mm) Average temperature (°C) Adopt adaptation measure against climate change Topography of the farm Flat (1 = yes) Gently Slope (1 = yes) Rolling (1 = yes) Midland (1 = yes) Highland (1 = yes) Production variables Amount of Fertilizer used ( kg/ha.year) Amount of Chemicals used used (l/ha.year) Labor used ( man.days/ha.year) Sigm2 Gamma -440.2375**** 1.0270 0.0000 7.7213**** 17.7284**** 0.5643 0.9079 0.0000 0.0000 2.4660**** 0.2355 0.0000 349.1170**** 374.1311**** 348.2366**** 353.4819**** 347.7393**** 0.8939 1.8349 0.8047 0.5021 0.7604 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 -0.5266**** 0.2237**** 1.8081**** 118.8936**** 1.0000**** 0.0368 0.0440 0.1878 18.9313 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ****Significant @ 0.01 probability level *** Significant @ 0.05 probability level ** Significant @ 0.10 probability level * Significant @ 0.20 probability level 27 Table 11. Production model of maize (Region XII): Stochastic Frontier Estimation (MLE) Variables Constant Climatic factors and adaptation Average annual rainfall for 15 years (mm) Average temperature (°C) Adopt adaptation measure against climate change Topography of the farm Flat (1 = yes) Gently Slope (1 = yes) Rolling (1 = yes) Midland (1 = yes) Highland (1 = yes) Production variables Amount of Fertilizer used ( kg/ha.year) Amount of Chemicals used used (l/ha.year) Labor used ( man.days/ha.year) Sigm2 Gamma Coefficient Standard Errors p-value 57.2700 139.8809 0.6829 -1.5742*** -11.9538 0.7628 41.1554 0.0409 0.7719 -0.0891 0.1217 0.4654 -0.3129 -0.6781* -0.6830* -0.7987* -1.5750*** 0.4541 0.4572 0.4706 0.5472 0.6578 0.4919 0.1403 0.1490 0.1467 0.0180 -0.1160* 0.0394**** 0.2409*** 0.4191**** 0.7719**** 0.0878 0.0137 0.1074 0.0921 0.1203 0.1889 0.0048 0.0264 0.0000 0.0000 ****Significant @ 0.01 probability level *** Significant @ 0.05 probability level ** Significant @ 0.10 probability level * Significant @ 0.20 probability level 28 Table 12. Production model of banana (Region XI): Stochastic Frontier Estimation (MLE) Variables Coefficient Standard Errors p-value Constant Climatic factors and adaptation Average annual rainfall for 15 years (mm) Average temperature (°C) Adopt adaptation measure against climate change Topography of the farm Flat (1 = yes) Gently Slope (1 = yes) Rolling (1 = yes) Midland (1 = yes) Highland (1 = yes) Production variables Amount of Fertilizer used ( kg/ha.year) Amount of Chemicals used used (l/ha.year) Labor used ( man.days/ha.year) Sigm2 Gamma -225.1066**** 75.1080 0.0035 -0.2943 -38.0061* 1.4619 26.3969 0.8409 0.1535 0.7212** 0.3737 0.0568 360.6477**** 360.6222**** 361.0124**** 360.3807**** - 18.7686 18.7803 18.8320 18.7784 - 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 - -0.0090 0.0205 0.2004 1.8994**** 0.6243**** 0.0250 0.0200 0.1598 0.5165 0.1959 0.7210 0.3090 0.2132 0.0004 0.0020 ****Significant @ 0.01 probability level *** Significant @ 0.05 probability level ** Significant @ 0.10 probability level * Significant @ 0.20 probability level 29 Table 13. Production model of banana (Region XII): Stochastic Frontier Estimation (MLE) Variables Constant Climatic factors and adaptation Average annual rainfall for 15 years (mm) Average temperature (°C) Adopt adaptation measure against climate change Topography of the farm Flat (1 = yes) Gently Slope (1 = yes) Rolling (1 = yes) Midland (1 = yes) Highland (1 = yes) Production variables Amount of Fertilizer used ( kg/ha.year) Amount of Chemicals used used (l/ha.year) Labor used ( man.days/ha.year) Sigm2 Gamma Coefficient Standard Errors p-value 7.3927**** 0.9918 0.0000 1.9489*** -2.4499*** 0.7384 0.9063 0.0129 0.0110 0.0662 0.9925 0.9472 -0.8668 -0.9184 -0.5392 0.9927 0.9996 0.9983 0.3893 0.3653 0.5930 - - - 0.0606 -0.0211 0.1697 0.9915 0.5922**** 0.0739 0.0582 0.8239 0.8184 0.1416 0.4186 0.7191 0.8382 0.2349 0.0002 ****Significant @ 0.01 probability level *** Significant @ 0.05 probability level ** Significant @ 0.10 probability level * Significant @ 0.20 probability level 30 Table 14. Production model of durian (Region XI): Stochastic Frontier Estimation (MLE) Variables Coefficient Standard Errors p-value Constant Climatic factors and adaptation Average annual rainfall for 15 years (mm) Average temperature (°C) Adopt adaptation measure against climate change Topography of the farm Flat (1 = yes) Gently Slope (1 = yes) Rolling (1 = yes) Midland (1 = yes) Highland (1 = yes) Production variables Amount of Fertilizer used ( kg/ha.year) Amount of Chemicals used used (l/ha.year) Labor used ( man.days/ha.year) Sigm2 Gamma 32.7767**** 0.9736 0.0000 -0.2197 -6.9497**** 0.3751 0.6060 0.5601 0.0000 -0.2678* 0.2017 0.1891 0.4652 0.7449* 0.5257 0.6554 -1.7294**** 0.4272 0.5234 0.4429 0.5322 0.5826 0.2804 0.1597 0.2398 0.2228 0.0043 -0.0071 0.0151 0.2489**** 2.7151**** 1.0000**** 0.0121 0.0161 0.0811 0.4118 0.0000 0.5585 0.3509 0.0032 0.0000 0.0000 ****Significant @ 0.01 probability level *** Significant @ 0.05 probability level ** Significant @ 0.10 probability level * Significant @ 0.20 probability level 31 Table 15. Production model of durian (Region XII): Stochastic Frontier Estimation (MLE) Variables Constant Climatic factors and adaptation Average annual rainfall for 15 years (mm) Average temperature (°C) Adopt adaptation measure against climate change Topography of the farm Flat (1 = yes) Gently Slope (1 = yes) Rolling (1 = yes) Midland (1 = yes) Highland (1 = yes) Production variables Amount of Fertilizer used ( kg/ha.year) Amount of Chemicals used used (l/ha.year) Labor used ( man.days/ha.year) Sigm2 Gamma Coefficient Standard Errors p-value 7.6759**** 0.9846 0.0000 -0.6115 1.4236** 0.4729 0.8099 0.1997 0.0826 0.5035**** 0.2411 0.0400 -0.8077 -0.3874 -0.9425 0.9792 0.8725 1.0098 0.4119 0.6582 0.3535 - - - -0.0057 -0.0378** -0.0687 1.4384**** 0.7061**** 0.0165 0.0191 0.0557 0.4435 0.2001 0.7290 0.0515 0.2206 0.0017 0.0007 ****Significant @ 0.01 probability level *** Significant @ 0.05 probability level ** Significant @ 0.10 probability level * Significant @ 0.20 probability level 32 Table 16. Production model of pooled data (Region XI): Stochastic Frontier Estimation (MLE) Variables Constant Climatic factors and adaptation Average annual rainfall for 15 years (mm) Average temperature (°C) Adopt adaptation measure against climate change Topography of the farm Flat (1 = yes) Gently Slope (1 = yes) Rolling (1 = yes) Midland (1 = yes) Highland (1 = yes) Production variables Amount of Fertilizer used ( kg/ha.year) Amount of Chemicals used used (l/ha.year) Labor used ( man.days/ha.year) Sigm2 Gamma Coefficient Standard Errors p-value -13.5365 46.4656 0.7710 1.5391*** 4.0412 0.7251 13.0860 0.0348 0.7577 0.3329*** 0.1595 0.0379 0.0724 0.3321 0.0735 -0.0882 -0.9736 0.6712 0.7524 0.6774 0.7131 0.9453 0.9142 0.6593 0.9137 0.9017 0.3040 0.0079 0.0053 0.2707**** 1.7119**** 0.7124**** 0.0102 0.0108 0.0593 0.2630 0.0921 0.4423 0.6243 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ****Significant @ 0.01 probability level *** Significant @ 0.05 probability level ** Significant @ 0.10 probability level * Significant @ 0.20 probability level 33 Table 17. Production model of pooled data (Region XII): Stochastic Frontier Estimation (MLE) Variables Constant Climatic factors and adaptation Average annual rainfall for 15 years (mm) Average temperature (°C) Adopt adaptation measure against climate change Topography of the farm Flat (1 = yes) Gently Slope (1 = yes) Rolling (1 = yes) Midland (1 = yes) Highland (1 = yes) Production variables Amount of Fertilizer used ( kg/ha.year) Amount of Chemicals used used (l/ha.year) Labor used ( man.days/ha.year) Sigm2 Gamma Coefficient Standard Errors p-value 43.5605 -159.2161 0.7846 -0.5986 16.9924 1.0280 46.4691 0.5609 0.7149 0.2676*** 0.1293 0.0396 -0.7033* -0.8040** -0.8955** -1.1742** -1.8983*** 0.4569 0.4496 0.4743 0.6562 0.8862 0.1250 0.0749 0.0601 0.0747 0.0331 0.0026 0.0049 0.0809*** 1.3580**** 0.8080**** 0.0112 0.0123 0.0363 0.2090 0.0764 0.8157 0.6896 0.0266 0.0000 0.0000 ****Significant @ 0.01 probability level *** Significant @ 0.05 probability level ** Significant @ 0.10 probability level * Significant @ 0.20 probability level 34 Table 18. Production model of overall pooled data for both Regions XI and XII: Stochastic Frontier Estimation (MLE) Variables Constant Climatic factors and adaptation Average annual rainfall for 15 years (mm) Average temperature (°C) Adopt adaptation measure against climate change Topography of the farm Flat (1 = yes) Gently Slope (1 = yes) Rolling (1 = yes) Midland (1 = yes) Highland (1 = yes) Production variables Amount of Fertilizer used ( kg/ha.year) Amount of Chemicals used used (l/ha.year) Labor used ( man.days/ha.year) Sigm2 Gamma Coefficient Standard Errors p-value 73.6698*** 36.7763 0.0457 -0.8316*** -18.2543** 0.3653 10.6184 0.0232 0.0862 0.2917*** 0.1053 0.0058 -0.3572 -0.4935 -0.5187 -0.7584 -1.5179**** 0.4395 0.4358 0.4472 0.4880 0.6767 0.4168 0.2580 0.2466 0.1208 0.0253 0.0087 0.0090 0.1603**** 1.4953**** 0.6990**** 0.0073 0.0080 0.0336 0.1686 0.0716 0.2309 0.2598 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ****Significant @ 0.01 probability level *** Significant @ 0.05 probability level ** Significant @ 0.10 probability level * Significant @ 0.20 probability level 35 REFERENCES Adger, W.N. 1996. 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