Management implications of an overpopulated white-tailed deer herd (Odocoileus virginianus) and the effects of the recently suspended Earn-a-Buck program in Wisconsin. By Daniel J. Murray An Undergraduate Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment for the Requirements of Bachelor of Arts in Geography and Earth Science Research Mentor: Dr. Kurt Piepenburg Carthage College Kenosha, WI December, 2010 Management implications of an overpopulated white-tailed deer herd (Odocoileus virginianus) and the effects of the recently suspended Earn-a-Buck program in Wisconsin. Daniel J. Murray Abstract Overpopulated deer herds can have serious implications on both the human and natural landscape. Among other things, uncontrolled deer numbers can increase the amount of deerrelated accidents and increase the spread of various diseases. Wildlife officials aim to set deer population goals that will produce a healthy herd, a healthy ecosystem, and minimal damage complaints, while still providing good hunting opportunities. In order to help meet these goals, the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources implemented their Earn-a-Buck program to increase the pressure to hunt antlerless deer and decrease the overall deer population to levels that the land can better support. Due to unprecedented amounts of criticism from hunters and legislators, the Wisconsin DNR was forced to suspend their program in 2009. Although hunters insist that the deer population is too low, available data implies that the deer population is still well over the desired population goals. Maps created using GIS and numerous regression tests were used to quantify the effects that the Earn-a-Buck program has had on the Wisconsin landscape during the course of its existence. Over 75% of the deer management units in Wisconsin are still over the set population goal and the statewide post-hunt population has not been at or below goal since 1992. The total deer harvest has decreased by 47% from the year 2000 and it has helped lead to a decrease in the number of deer-related car accidents and injuries. The total number of deer-related accidents decreased by 20.2% since 2000 and the number of injuries resulting from this type of accident decreased by 41.2%. Although the total deer harvest has decreased, the prevalence of Lyme and Chronic Wasting disease has increased during this time frame. Some of this phenomenon could still be attributed to fact that some deer densities are still well over the desired goals. Before its suspension, the Earn-a-Buck program had been making significant progress toward lowering the deer population. Retracting the Earn-a-Buck program now could eliminate all of the progress we have made towards reaching the desired population goals and making Wisconsin a safer and more balanced environment. Most wildlife experts in Wisconsin agree that, without continual intervention, Chronic Wasting disease will spread further into state. While hunters may currently be complaining about the low numbers of deer on the landscape, future hunts may be in even greater jeopardy as more and more deer succumb to the disease. The best time to manage the disease is right now, while the numbers are still relatively low and concentrated in one area. ii Table of Contents Abstract……………………………………………………………………………….…….ii List of Maps Map A and B: Wisconsin Deer Management Units and Post-hunt Population Goals (2009)…………………………………………………….20, 21 List of Graphs Graph A: Deer Harvest and Licensed Hunters in Wisconsin……………………….22 Graph B: Total Deer Harvest and Deer-related Accidents………….……………...23 Graph C: Deer-related Accidents and Injuries in Wisconsin……………………….24 Graph D: Deer Harvest and Deer/Vehicle Crash Injuries in Wisconsin……………25 Graph E: CWD Prevalence in Wisconsin…………………………………………..27 Graph F: Deer Harvest and Lyme Disease Cases in Wisconsin…………………....28 List of Figures Figure 1A: Total Deer Harvest and Deer-related Accidents Regression Analysis……………………………………………………….23 Figure 2A: Deer-related Accidents and Injuries Regression Analysis Figure 2B: Deer-related Accidents and Injuries Analysis of Variance……………24 Figure 3A: Total Deer Harvest and Deer-related Accident Injuries Regression Analysis……………………………………………………….25 Figure 4A: Total Deer Harvest and CWD Proportion Positive (M) Analysis of Variance Figure 4B: Total Deer Harvest and CWD Proportion Positive (F) Analysis of Variance……………………………………………………...26 iii Figure 5A: Total Deer Harvest and Reported Lyme Disease Cases Analysis of Variance……………………………………………………..27 Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………1 Methodology………………………………………………………………………………..15 Results………………………………………………………………………………………20 Discussion…………………………………………………………………………………..29 Management Implications…………………………………………………………..32 Future Research……………………………………………………………………..35 Acknowledgements………………………………………………………………………...37 Works Cited………………………………………………………………………………...38 iv Introduction The purpose of this research is to demonstrate how the Earn-a-Buck program has effectively managed the deer herd in Wisconsin. I will argue that the program’s reinstatement is necessary in order to even further lower the deer population and mitigate the negative effects that deer overabundance can have on humans and the natural environment. The concept of attempting to control the deer population in Wisconsin can be traced all the way back to the mid-19th century and has continually been disputed by different groups and agencies. This deliberation, now commonly known as “The Deer Wars,” has been argued tirelessly by those involved with hunting, conservation, agriculture, and forest ecology all around the state. The relatively small total deer harvests in recent years have further fueled this ongoing debate and hunter dissatisfaction has even grown to require legislative proceedings. The approximate 330,000 total registered deer harvest in 2009 is significantly lower than Wisconsin’s previous five-year annual harvest average of 492,000 (Wisconsin Deer Harvest and License Sales 1966-03). Even more notable, the Wisconsin DNR recorded a 47% decrease from the record-breaking 618,274 harvested deer in 2000. This decrease, largely in part to the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources’ attempts to control the deer population, has resulted in unprecedented amounts of input and criticism from hunters around the state. Disgruntled hunters insist that the Earn-a-Buck program has driven the deer population too low, but wildlife officials in the DNR believe that the deer population is still well over the desired goal. Wisconsin is recognized as one of the premier deer hunting destinations in the United States and there is no denying the impact it has on the state’s economy and culture. The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources estimates that deer hunting generates more than $1 billion in total impact to the state’s economy every year and creates thousands of full and part 1 time jobs (Chronic Wasting Disease Background n.d.). It is also an important component of Wisconsin’s recreational activities and tradition. Deer hunting contributes more than 7 million days of recreation each year and the state continuously licenses over 600,000 hunters, one of the highest amounts in the nation (Chronic Wasting Disease Background n.d.). Many businesses and organizations benefit from good hunting years and rely heavily on the income generated from high deer harvest numbers, including the DNR, whose license fees are a main source for agency income. The National Survey of Fishing, Hunting, and Wildlife-Associated Recreation estimated that each Wisconsin hunter spends about $1,500 on deer hunting (Wisconsin’s Deer Management Program: The Issues Involved in Decision-Making 1998). Besides hunters, who mostly argue for higher deer populations to simply improve their hunt, most groups that demand higher deer levels are interested in monetary gain and the financial implications that hunting has on the area. Many people fail to see the dangers that overpopulated deer herds can cause and the negative affects they can impose on the landscape, however. Although most hunters, and those who benefit from the revenue generated by the sport, would like to see as many deer as possible, it is necessary for wildlife agencies to try and mitigate the negative effects that deer can impose on humans and the environment. Sharon Levy stated that uncontrolled deer numbers could increase deer-related accidents, increase the incidence of tick-borne infections such as Lyme disease, and destroy forest diversity (Levy 2006). Ideally, wildlife managers aim to set population goals that will produce a healthy herd, a healthy ecosystem, and few damage complaints, while still providing good hunting opportunities. Wisconsin’s deer population is managed in smaller landscape segments called deer management units (DMU). Wisconsin has over 130 of these deer management units and they are used by the DNR to help monitor and control the deer activity throughout Wisconsin. Each unit 2 is required by administrative code to have its own deer population goal, which reflects habitat conditions, winter severity, hunter demand, and impacts of deer on forestry, agriculture, and deer/vehicle collision rates (Deer Management For 2000 and Beyond: Final Report 2000). The DNR uses various data sources involving ecological carrying capacity, maximum sustainable yield, and sociological carrying capacity to determine how many dear each management unit can support and what the goal for each unit should be. According to DNR administrative code and case stipulations on Chippewa treaty rights, the deer population goals must be reviewed every three years (Deer Management For 2000 and Beyond: Final Report 2000). After the latest review of the code, the new total goal for all of Wisconsin is now a posthunt population of 794,000 deer (Smith 2010). Researchers use an area’s deer range, only land considered to be a suitable habitiat for deer, to determine the density of deer in a given location and how many deer the land can support. The northern forest contains about 15,000 square miles of deer range, the central forest contains about 2,300 square miles of deer range, and the farmland regions of Wisconsin contain about 17,000 square miles of deer range (Deer Management For 2000 and Beyond: Final Report 2000). The current overwinter population goals in the Northern Forest region are about 18 deer/mi2 of deer range. Goals in the Central Forest range from 25-30 deer/mi2 and farmland units goals average 22 deer/mi2 (Deer Management For 2000 and Beyond: Final Report 2000). Since deer-vehicle accidents are a major concern in the more urbanized counties, the population goals in the metro units are among the lowest in the state (10 deer/mi2). In order to help reach the desired population goals, the Wisconsin DNR implemented a highly controversial Earn-a-Buck program. Earn-a-buck is an effective herd control measure that 3 requires hunters to tag an antlerless deer before being allowed to harvest a buck (a deer with at least one antler 3” or longer in length). Hunters are only permitted to begin hunting for bucks once they register their antlerless deer and are granted a Buck Authorization Sticker from the deer registration station. The program was implemented in an attempt to reduce deer populations that were well above the desired goals and alleviate the negative effect that deer overpopulation was causing on the Wisconsin landscape. The Earn-a-Buck program was so effective in reducing the total deer population because it increased harvest pressure on antlerless deer. Other management methods like simply increasing the amount of permits granted or lengthening the hunting season will not necessarily reduce deer numbers to desired levels. In order to effectively manage deer populations, hunters need to shoot more does and focus on subsistence hunting like those living on Indian reservations in Wisconsin. Don Waller suggests that hunters need to “hunt more like wolves” and shoot whatever deer they can, instead of focusing on impressive racks that will look good on the wall (Levy 2006). Merritt Clifton supports this idea and claims that many current hunting techniques are hardly a form of herd control at all. In areas where deer aren’t hunted, the buckto-doe ratio usually remains steady around 1:1, with each couple producing one or two fawns every year (Deer Hunting Isn’t a Form of Herd Control. 2001). In areas where bucks are shot in great numbers, the buck-to-doe ratio can raise to 1:7, and even as high as 1:30 in extreme scenarios. Although the population decreases overall by the removal of large numbers of bucks, the deer population continues to grow at the same rate because one buck could inseminate all 30 does, and produce as many as 60 offspring (Deer Hunting Isn’t a Form of Herd Control. 2001) Deer management relies heavily on the shooting of does, but this idea clashes with many of the traditions and hunting strategies used by today’s hunters. In the early 20 th century, deer in 4 Wisconsin were scarce and hunts were focused solely on bucks in order to improve the growth rate and low population numbers. Many hunters carried on the tradition of only hunting bucks and most of today’s “trophy hunters” search for only the biggest and most impressive racks. It is rare to find many hunting groups that believe more deer, the better. Most hunters even pass on smaller deer that come their way in hopes that bigger bucks will soon follow. Three different concepts are considered when setting population goals: 1) the long-term maximum number of deer the land can support, 2) the number of deer that produce the maximum sustainable harvest, 3) the number of deer people are willing to tolerate (Deer Management For 2000 and Beyond: Final Report 2000). Although whitetail deer usually appear to be tame and docile, overpopulated deer herds can be a legitimate nuisance to the people in the area and even impose significant danger. According to the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, over 1 million deer collided with cars in 2008 alone. These accidents resulted in the death of 150 people and over $1.1 billion dollars in vehicle damage (Rooney 2003). In some counties in Wisconsin, deer collisions account for up to 64% of all vehicle accidents (Deer Management For 2000 and Beyond: Final Report 2000). As the population rises and the deer are forced to infringe upon urban environments, they progressively become less and less frightened by human contact. These areas become favorable homes to the deer, who are protected from hunters and have easy access to gardens and ornamental shrubs for food. Many deer-related accidents now involve animals that are no longer startled by traffic and do not attempt to avoid the vehicles until its too late (Cillis 2008). Deer that are accustomed to human presence also cause safety problems for airplanes at airports and are now even spotted strolling down city streets and invading local businesses. Several stories have been documented about businessmen who have found their places destroyed 5 by whitetail deer who have charged their reflection on the storefront windows. On May 2, 2010, two bucks crashed through the Stout Ale House in Menomonee, Wisconsin. The deer crashed violently through the front doors and sent pieces of glass flying in all directions. The total damage caused by the deer totaled over $2,000 and a surveillance video shows a man who narrowly escapes being hit by the animals (Horwath 2010) The eating patterns of an uncontrolled deer population can also have a negative effect on an area’s agriculture and economy. The United States is home to about 30 million deer, each one eating nearly 500 kg of vegetation each year (Levy 2006). In farmland regions, biologists have found negative impacts on plants and animals are most likely to occur when deer numbers exceed 20-30 deer per square mile (Deer Management For 2000 and Beyond: Final Report 2000). In a study of 13 northeastern states, wildlife technicians discovered that deer caused about $248 million worth of damage every year to the area’s agricultural crops, nurseries, and landscaping (Drake 2005). In Wisconsin, high deer populations are responsible for 90% of the wildlife crop damage (Wisconsin’s Deer Management Program: The Issues Involved in Decision-Making 1998). Deer damage to crops generally increases as deer populations grow above population goals. Many farmers in Wisconsin have suffered serious losses where deer populations were locally high and where high value crops were grown. Estimates based off the Wisconsin Damage Abatement and Claims Service Program suggested that total crop damage in the state ranged from $7 million to $28 million in 2000 (Deer Management For 2000 and Beyond: Final Report 2000). Many wild flowers, personal gardens, and parklands have been destroyed by deer, leading to the disappearance of many plant species in the area and the refusal for many gardeners to 6 continue planting. Many Christmas tree farmers are forced to buy expensive electrical fencing to protect their crops and landowners need to buy tree tubes to help seedlings survive. Aside from being a nuisance to farmers and gardeners, the eating patterns of whitetail deer can have serious implications on the forest ecology and entire ecosystem. Uncontrolled deer population and overbrowsing has greatly reduced the plant diversity in the eastern United States (Levy 2006). The Appalachian National Forest is now dominated by black-cherry trees and hayscented fern, simply because they can persist through the threat of high deer populations. The high densities of these plants choke out most of their natural competitors and have spread across the landscape. In Pennsylvania, hay-scented fern once covered less than 3% of the forest floor, a number that has now increased to over 33% because deer feed so heavily on its competitors (Levy 2006). Don Waller of the University of Wisconsin-Madison insists that deer have dramatically changed the plant communities in Wisconsin as well. He mentions that deer eliminate seedlings of hemlock, cedar, and yellow birch and devour most understory plants. Because of overbrowsing in Wisconsin, the forests in the area have recently become dominated by grasses, sedges, and balsam fir (Levy 2006). Shannon Wiegmann, a botanist who conducted several resurveys on plant communities in Northern Wisconsin Upland forests, reports that most plant species spreading across the area can do so because of their ability to resist or tolerate deer herbivory, while many decreasing species are sensitive to deer (Wiegmann 2006). Some biologists have suggested deer population goals be set at 50% or less of carrying capacity to reduce impacts on natural communities of plants and animals in forested landscapes (Deer Management For 2000 and Beyond: Final Report 2000). 7 Deer also affect the growth and wellness of other animals in the area. On Anticosti Island, deer that were introduced to the area years ago have now virtually destroyed a once healthy black bear population by stripping away the gooseberries and currants (Cillis, 2008). In Wisconsin, large numbers of deer can also diminish various plant species that other organisms need to survive. The federally endangered Karner Blue Butterfly, for instance, depends on wild lupine for its larval stage. Several other animals, such as the red-backed vole and the hooded warbler, are negatively affected by overbrowsing and diminished forest floor vegetation as a result of large deer herds (Wisconsin’s Deer Management Program: The Issues Involved in Decision-Making 1998). Overbrowsing can also have serious health repercussions on the deer themselves. As a population approaches carrying capacity, food becomes limited. Overcrowding and food shortages lead to unhealthy deer that suffer from the deficiency of many nutrients that they need to survive. These malnourished deer are weak, underweight, and have small antlers. When a deer reaches this unhealthy state they are also more likely to contract disease. Although a lot of diseases that deer carry do not affect them, contact with an infected deer can cause sickness in humans. These diseases, such as cryptosporidium and virulent E. coli, are usually passed from deer to people through contact with deer fecal matter (Wisconsin’s Deer Management Program: The Issues Involved in Decision-Making 1998). Because many areas are so overpopulated with deer, the diseases are able to spread rapidly throughout the herd, similar to disease epidemics spread by humans in crowded areas. Deer also aid in the spread of Lyme disease to people because they often carry ticks that harbor the Lyme disease-causing bacteria. Lyme disease was named after Lyme, Connecticut, an 8 area that became overrun with deer and was home to many of the first identified cases in 1975. The disease is difficult to detect and difficult to treat in its advanced stages. If not treated early by antibiotics, the subject may begin to experience severe neck stiffness, shooting pains, and debilitating heart problems (Cillis, 2008). The ticks carrying the bacteria are usually only present in places where there are large populations of deer and several areas have been calling for mass culls because of the citizens’ fear of contracting the disease. It is widely acknowledged that Lyme and all other deer-tick-borne diseases can be prevented by reducing the deer population that the ticks depend on for reproductive success (Stafford 2004). It is suggested that by reducing the deer population to levels of 8 to 10 per square mile the tick numbers can be brought down to levels too low to spread Lyme and other tick-borne diseases (Stafford 2004). Deer in Wisconsin are also becoming subject to the spread of Chronic Wasting disease (CWD). Chronic Wasting disease was introduced into the state and was first detected in Wisconsin on February 28, 2002 (Wisconsin’s Chronic Wasting Disease Response Plan: 20102025 2010). Chronic Wasting disease is a disorder similar to mad cow disease that is spreading across North America by deer or elk, the disease’s only known natural hosts. Unlike cryptosporidium and virulent E. coli, deer are indeed subject to affects of Chronic Wasting Disease. Animals with Chronic Wasting Disease develop infectious protein particles (prions) in the brain until most of the tissue develops sponge-like holes (Chronic Wasting Disease Harms Deer and Elk. 2005). The clinical signs of the disease typically appear over 1.5 years after the infection, as the prions accumulate and destroy the brain tissue. The affected animals exhibit behavioral changes, progressive weight loss, lose coordination, and eventually die. There is 9 currently no available treatment or vaccination for the disease and all infections are believed to be fatal. The control of CWD in high density, free-ranging white-tailed deer populations has never been attempted and there are no proven techniques to prevent its diffusion. Therefore, the National CWD Management Plan can only recognize deer population reduction and the removal of CWD-positive deer as the most likely to be effective for controlling Chronic Wasting disease in the wild. Data from Colorado and Wyoming has demonstrated that Chronic Wasting disease prevalence can reach high levels and become geographically widespread without control efforts. Monitoring in these states also reveals that CWD can drastically reduce deer populations (Wisconsin’s Chronic Wasting Disease Response Plan: 2010-2025 2010). Most wildlife experts in Wisconsin agree that, without intervention, Chronic Wasting disease will spread further into state. As the prevalence of the disease increases, many fear that the overall deer population will decline and that the future my present limited opportunities to enjoy this Wisconsin resource. The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Administrative Code NR 1.015(2) states that: The primary goal of wildlife management is to provide healthy life systems necessary to sustain Wisconsin’s wildlife populations for their biological, recreational, cultural and economic values. Wildlife management is the application of knowledge in the protection, enhancement and regulation of wildlife resources for their contribution toward maintaining the integrity of the environment and for the human benefits they provide (Wisconsin’s Chronic Wasting Disease Response Plan: 2010-2025 2010). In an attempt to fulfill their wildlife management responsibilities, the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources created a CWD Management Plan with several objectives, including mapping the distribution of the disease, investigating the possible origin of the disease in the state, minimizing the spread of the disease 10 to new areas, and completely eradicating the disease from the affected area (Wisconsin’s Chronic Wasting Disease Response Plan: 2010-2025 2010). In order to meet these objectives, the Wisconsin DNR has continually conducted great amounts of surveillance and testing for the disease since 2002. Chronic Wasting disease has been found in 12 southern Wisconsin counties, all of which are included in the current CWD Management Zone. The DNR has created this Management Zone in an attempt to better monitor infected areas. Over the next 15 years, trends in the population in this zone will be monitored by a combination of helicopter and fixed-wing surveys and population modeling. This data will track CWD transmission and the effectiveness of response efforts. Since this disease is relatively new in Wisconsin and little has previously been done in an attempt to control it, scientists have begun to conduct more research to find demographic patterns involved with the epidemic in hopes to better understand how and why it spreads. Research shows that the disease prevalence increases with age, simply indicating that risk of infection increases with length of exposure (age) (Grear 2006). The study also found that males are more subject to contracting the disease than females, largely in part to their social patterns. Peak prevalence in three-year-old males (13%) was nearly twice that for females (7%) (Grear 2006). These numbers can largely be attributed to the relatively small home ranges that does have (1.5-2.5 km²) in comparison to bucks (2-4 km²) (Grear 2006). Bucks move around more throughout the year, meaning that they may become more exposed to the disease and they are more vulnerable to coming in contact with other infected deer. Bucks are also at risk when coming in contact with one another while competing for females and by visiting scent stations (rubs and scrapes) used by infected bucks (Grear 2006). Data also suggests that there is a low 11 probability of does infecting their offspring early in life. The prevalence in fawns (0.5%) is low compared to the prevalence in adult does (5.4%), signifying that mother-to-offspring transmission is uncommon (Grear 2006). The Wisconsin DNR reports that only 23 out of more than 15,000 fawns tested since 2002 have had the disease (Wisconsin’s Chronic Wasting Disease Response Plan: 2010-2025 2010). The recent spread of chronic wasting disease and research supporting its potential spread to humans has also decreased the desire to hunt does. Although most organizations believe that chronic wasting disease is not transmissible to humans, medical research suggests that it is indeed possible to receive negative effects from eating infected venison. More laboratory studies are needed to monitor the possibility of such transmissions, but initial research indicates that humans may not necessarily be protected from animal prion diseases (Belay 2004). There has been little to no evidence that humans can contract the disease, but many individuals dislike the notion of eating any meat that could be considered infected. Many hunters take extreme precautions when processing the meat and often times refuse to eat it at all, especially because most signs of infection don’t show until over a year after the deer contracts the disease. There are several guidelines for handling venison, including never touching or eating the eyes, brain, spinal cord, spleen, tonsils, lymph nodes, or any part of a deer that appears sick. Hunters are also encouraged to wear latex gloves and use a strong solution to clean everything that touched the deer. Deer management varies from area to area because each individual habitat can support various amounts of deer. However, there are various universal criteria that wildlife agencies 12 follow to maintain healthy deer levels. A region can be considered overpopulated if the deer in the area meet any of these conditions (Cromwell 1999): 1.) Deer negatively impact the vegetation and physical features of the environment. 2.) Deer populations exhibit a poor average body condition. 3.) Deer populations contain high disease prevalence. 4.) Deer are transmitting disease to humans and other species. 5.) High deer densities result in significant economic loss. 6.) High deer densities increase the risk of injury or death to humans. The Department of Natural Resources felt that deer were overpopulated in Wisconsin and that aggressive measures needed to be taken in order to reduce the number of deer to levels that the land could better support. The Earn-a-Buck program was highly effective but hunters despised it, insisting that they weren’t seeing any deer on the landscape and that they were sometimes forced to pass up trophy bucks. The Natural Resources Board was even warned that if they didn’t make a move, it was inevitable lawmakers would take over and do away with Earn-aBuck through legislation. The large amounts of pressure from hunters and legislators forced Wisconsin wildlife officials to suspend the program in 2009 and look for other ways to control the state’s deer population. Being the most effective way to manage the spread of Chronic Wasting disease, the DNR is allowed to continue its Earn-a-Buck program in the CWD Management Zone. Those hunting in this zone must continue to shoot an antlerless deer before harvesting a buck, but during the 2010 deer season, no deer management units outside of the Chronic Wasting Disease Management Zone will have Earn-a-Buck regulations. By removing the Earn-a-Buck program from areas outside of the CWD Management Zone, the deer population in Wisconsin may return 13 to dangerously high levels and expunge the program’s efforts to mitigate the negative effects of deer overabundance. To test whether the Earn-a-Buck program should be reinstated to even further lower the deer population and mitigate the negative effects caused by overabundance, I have generated the following hypotheses: Null Hypothesis The Earn-a-Buck program has had no effect in lowering deer-related accidents, decreasing the prevalence of Lyme disease, and managing the spread of Chronic Wasting Disease. The Earn-a-Buck program is no longer needed to lower the deer population in Wisconsin. Alternative Hypothesis Through the course of its existence, the Earn-a-Buck program has effectively lowered the deer population in Wisconsin and mitigated the negative effects of deer overabundance. Hypothesis A: The Earn-a-Buck program has successfully reduced the total deer population in Wisconsin, resulting in a decrease in the total number of deer-related vehicle accidents. Hypothesis B: The Earn-a-Buck program has been an effective tool for managing Chronic Wasting Disease by reducing overcrowding and successfully lowering the prevalence of infected deer in Wisconsin. Hypothesis C: The Earn-a-Buck program has influenced a decrease in the amount of reported Lyme disease cases in Wisconsin by reducing the deer population that ticks depend on for reproductive success. 14 Methodology This research on deer management covered the entire state of Wisconsin and various geographical regions within it. Most of data acquired represents state-wide totals generated from cumulative county and deer management unit figures. Some data was represented by individual deer management units, or DMUs. The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources has divided the state into 133 of these deer management units and they are used regularly to help monitor and control the deer activity throughout Wisconsin. Most of the available data on deer from the DNR is classified into these units. Some data analysis also focused on the Chronic Wasting Disease Management Zone, again, a predetermined study area created by the DNR in an attempt to better monitor infected areas. Chronic Wasting disease has been found in 12 southern Wisconsin counties, all of which are included in the current CWD Management Zone. Most of the data involving the deer harvest in Wisconsin was acquired from the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources’ website. By law, hunters are required to register all of their harvested deer. For decades, the DNR has diligently recorded these numbers and compiled various data sets that portray deer harvest totals, along with what type of deer was shot and how many licenses were granted. Total deer population estimates were also acquired from the Wisconsin DNR. Estimating the deer population is a rather detailed and lengthy process. Wildlife technicians in the DNR combine several variables and resources to compile a formula that attempts to accurately predict the deer population. One of the most commonly used tools for estimating the deer herd is the Sex-Age-Kill (SAK) calculation. There are several parts to the SAK model: the buck harvest, the buck harvest rate, the age structure of bucks and does harvested (the adult sex ratio), and the fall fawn-to-doe ratio. Most of the data that technicians use in this model comes from the details collected from successful hunters when deer are 15 registered. They also combine data collected from ground tracking, aerial surveys, observation surveys, and weather databases to improve their estimates. Aerial tracking occurs in the winter in helicopters and fixed-wing airplanes when trees are leafless. Teams of two observers and a pilot flying low and slow over farmland, wetlands and woods can get close enough to count deer on the landscape and mark deer locations on aerial maps. Bucks are classified as deer with at least one antler 3” in length or longer. A map of the deer management units was created using geographical information systems software called ArcMap. Data layers acquired from the Wisconsin DNR’s WebView program were extracted as a shapefile and joined into ArcMap so Wisconsin’s deer management units were available in the program. WebView is mapping tool provided by the DNR that allows users to create custom maps and gain access to several databases. The program’s extract tool allows users to clip out and download ESRI shapefiles for certain data layers and join them to different GIS programs. Deer harvest data collected from the DNR website was properly entered into Microsoft Excel and Microsoft Access so it could be readable and joined in the ArcMap program. The deer management units’ FID codes were used so the acquired data could be compatible in the shapefile and represented properly on the maps. The maps depict all of Wisconsin’s Deer Management units and identify which units are over the population goals. Different colors were used to identify what units are still above the population goal and represent which areas are over by the highest percentages. Each unit is required by administrative code to have its own deer population goal, which reflects habitat conditions, winter severity, hunter demand, and impacts of deer on forestry, agriculture, and deer/vehicle collision rates. The DNR uses various data sources involving ecological carrying 16 capacity, maximum sustainable yield, and sociological carrying capacity to determine how many dear each management unit can support and what the goal for each unit should be. By using mathematical functions, ArcMap was able to compare the relationship between the predetermined goals and actual population. The map also portrays the percentage that each deer management unit is over or under the goal. A graph was used to represent the relationship between the total deer harvest in Wisconsin in comparison to the number of licensed hunters over the last ten years. This graph help depicts whether or not the total deer harvest has been affected by the amount of licensed hunters. By using Microsoft Excel, a line graph was able to be generated that compared the two data sets. The primary y-axis represented totals in the deer harvest and the secondary y-axis contained figures representing the total number of licenses granted. The x-axis represented the years of the data set (2000-2009). A trend line was added to the deer harvest data to represent the general direction that the harvest numbers have been moving over the last ten years and if they are increasing or decreasing overall. A trend line represents a trend, or the long-term movement in time series data. In order to compare the relationship between deer population and traffic accidents, data was acquired from the Wisconsin Department of Transportation. This department classifies all reported car accidents in the state and reports are offered in several levels of detail. These statistics are based only on crashes reported to the Wisconsin Department of Transportation by law enforcement officers and deer crashes self-reported by drivers are not included. The statistics also do not include crashes caused by drivers avoiding deer. It is also important to note that a reportable crash is defined as a crash resulting in injury or death of any person, any damage to 17 government-owned non-vehicle property to an apparent extent of $200 or more, or total damage to property owned by any one person to an apparent extent of $1000 or more. In order to quantify the effect that deer population has on the human environment, various deer-related accident data sets were run through regression tests with the total deer harvest data. This test finds an R value, which is a mathematical output that determines how strong the relationship is between the dependent and independent variables. The data was properly entered in the program SPSS, a computer program used for statistical analysis, and run through the regression test. The program computes a table that, among other things, provides the user with an r and p value. R values over .7 usually signify strong correlation, but that value is considered to be even lower when studying human and animal behavior. The regression tests were only statistically significant at p ≤ .05. Three different regression tests were run to examine deer-related accidents, injuries, and the total deer harvest. The first test analyzed the relationship between the deer harvest and deer-related accidents. Another test analyzed the relationship between the deer harvest and the amount of injuries that have resulted from deer-related accidents. The final test compared the relationship that exists between deer-related accidents and the risk of injury. Line graphs were also created using Microsoft Excel to visually compare the aforementioned deer-related accident data and the total deer harvest. The total deer harvest data was represented along the primary y-axis and the deer-related accident data was along the secondary y-axis. By adding a secondary y-axis, the user is able to compare two different variables over the same time period. Trend lines were added to both data sets to demonstrate the overall long term movement of the data and compare how the data sets have been changing over 18 the years. A similar graph was made to compare the relationship between the deer harvest and the amount of injuries that have resulted from deer-related accidents, as well the relationship between deer/vehicle crashes and the risk of injury. Regression tests were also used to examine the relationship between the total deer harvest and the prevalence of chronic wasting disease. Many believe that deer overpopulation increases disease prevalence and this test examines how the attempts to reduce the deer population have affected CWD. The total deer harvest totals and Chronic Wasting Disease data will once again be derived from Wisconsin DNR sources. The DNR has provided a data set that tracks CWD prevalence since it was first detected in Wisconsin in 2002. Exact numbers of the total amount of infected deer are near impossible to determine, therefore, the DNR uses a ratio to represent disease prevalence that compares the amount of infected deer with the amount of deer they test. A line graph was created using Microsoft Excel to visually portray the prevalence of CWD in tested dear for both males and females since 2002. Deer overpopulation has also been accused of increasing the spread of Lyme disease. Data was collected from the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that confirms reported Lyme disease cases by state. As with most other diseases, reporting requirements for Lyme disease are determined by state laws or regulations. In most states, Lyme disease cases are reported by licensed health care providers, diagnostic laboratories, or hospitals. States and the District of Columbia share their data with CDC, which compiles and publishes the information for the Nation. Similar to the deer-related accident analysis, the Lyme disease data was run through regression tests in SPSS and graphed in order to find the correlation between the total deer population and Lyme disease prevalence. 19 Results A map was created in GIS using 2009 data that represents the total post-hunt deer population in comparison to the deer population goal for each deer management unit in Wisconsin. Overall, 90 deer management units were above the desired goal and 29 units were below the goal (See: Wisconsin Deer Management Units and Post-hunt Population Goals (2009)). 47 total units were over 50% higher than the desired goal, while two units were below the population goal by more than 50%. 27 of these units recorded post-hunt populations that were over 100% of the goal and two deer management units were above the goal by more than 500%. 19 units are not represented on the map because they are either registered as a non-quota zone or they are independently managed. Map: A 20 Map: B The first chart was created to compare the relationship between the annual deer harvest and the number of licensed hunters in Wisconsin from 2000-2009. As seen in graph A, the total recorded harvest decreased from 618,274 deer in 2000 to 329,103 in 2009, a total decrease of 46.8%. The number of total licensed hunters remained relatively steady over the ten year span. There were 952,714 licensed hunters in 2000 and 890,121 licensed hunters in 2009, a total decrease of 6.6%. From 2000 to 20009 there was an average annual harvest of 470,807 deer and 903,078 licensed hunters, resulting in an average of .52 deer per license. 21 Graph: A Deer Harvest and Licensed Hunters in Wisconsin (2000-2009) Total Deer Harvest Licensed Hunters y = -10907x + 530796 R² = 0.1676 Year Wisconsin Dept. of Natual Resources The harvest data was organized and run through regression analysis to compare the relationship between the total deer harvest and the amount of deer-related traffic accidents in Wisconsin from 2000 to 2009. The test generated an R value of .337 (Figure 1A). The total number of deer-related accidents in Wisconsin decreased from 20,468 in 2000 to 16,338 in 2009, a decrease of 20.2% (Graph: B). Regression tests were also ran to compare the relationship between the frequency of deer/vehicle crashes and the resulting injuries. The test comparing deer-related accidents and injuries resulting from deer-related accidents revealed an R value of .905 and proved to be statistically significant at <.000 (Figure 2A and 2B). The total number of injuries resulting from deer-related accidents decreased by 41.2% from 2000 to 2009 (Graph: C). and had an R value of .483 when compared to the total deer harvest (Figure 3A/Graph: D). 22 Figure: 1A Total Deer Harvest and Deer-related Accidents Regression Analysis Model dimen 1 R R Square .337a Adjusted R Square .114 Std. Error of the Estimate .003 80561.516 sion0 a. Predictors: (Constant), Deer-Related Accidents Graph: B 23 Figure: 2A Deer-related Accidents and Injuries Regression Analysis Model d R R Square .905a 1 Adjusted R Square .819 Std. Error of the Estimate .796 879.673 i a. Predictors: (Constant), Injuries resulting from deer-related accidents m e n Figure: 2B s i Deer-related Accidents and Injuries Analysis of Variance o n Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. 0 1 Regression Residual Total 2.794E7 1 2.794E7 6190591.144 8 773823.893 3.413E7 9 36.110 .000a *Deer-related Accidents and Injuries Graph: C 24 Figure: 3A Total Deer Harvest and Deer-related Accident Injuries Regression Analysis Model Std. Error of the R d R Square .483a 1 Adjusted R Square .234 Estimate .138 74913.211 i a. Predictors: (Constant), Deer_Accident_injuries m e Graph: D n s i o Deer Harvest and Deer/Vehicle Crash Injuries in Wisconsin (2000-2009) n 0 y = -10907x + 530796 R² = 0.1676 Injuries Total Deer Harvest Total Deer Harvest y = -36.448x + 868.67 R² = 0.9175 Year WDNR/WDOT Regression tests were also used to compare the total deer harvest to the percentage of deer that tested positive to Chronic Wasting disease. The test used data starting in 2002, when the disease was first detected in Wisconsin. The tests were verified as being statistically insignificant for both males (.342) and females (.055) (Figure 4A and 4B). While the number of harvested deer decreased by 11.5% from 2002 to 2009, the percentage of deer testing positive in 25 males increased by 14.3% from 10.5% in 2002 to 12% in 2009. The percentage of deer testing positive in females increased as well, growing from 4.7% in 2002 to 6.4% in 2009, an overall increase of 36.2% (Graph: E). Figure: 4A Total Deer Harvest and CWD Proportion Positive (M) Analysis of Variance Model 1 Sum of Squares Regression df Mean Square 5.160E9 1 5.160E9 Residual 2.914E10 6 4.857E9 Total 3.430E10 7 F 1.062 Sig. .342a a. Predictors: (Constant), CWD Proportion Positive (Males) b. Dependent Variable: Total Deer Harvest Figure: 4B Total Deer Harvest and CWD Proportion Positive (F) Analysis of Variance Model 1 Sum of Squares df Mean Square Regression 1.668E10 1 1.668E10 Residual 1.762E10 6 2.936E9 Total 3.430E10 7 F 5.682 Sig. .055a a. Predictors: (Constant), CWD Proportion Positive (Female) b. Dependent Variable: Total Deer Harvest 26 Graph: E A final regression test was used to compare the relationship between the deer harvest totals and the total number of reported Lyme disease cases in Wisconsin from 2000 to 20009. Similar to the Chronic Wasting disease tests, the regression test proved to be statistically insignificant at .248 (Figure 5A). While the total deer harvest decreased by 46.8% from the year 2000, the total number of Lyme disease cases increased by 209.4% (Graph: F). Figure: 5A Total Deer Harvest and Reported Lyme Disease Cases Analysis of Variance Model 1 Sum of Squares Regression df Mean Square 9.519E9 1 9.519E9 Residual 4.906E10 8 6.132E9 Total 5.858E10 9 F 1.552 Sig. .248a a. Predictors: (Constant), Reported Lyme Disease Cases b. Dependent Variable: Total Deer Harvest 27 Graph: F Deer Harvest and Lyme Disease Cases in Wisconsin (2000-2009) y = -10907x + 530796 R² = 0.1676 Lyme Disease Cases Total Deer Harvest Total Deer Harvest y = 147.12x + 429.47 R² = 0.8645 Year CDC/WDNR 28 Discussion Graph A was used to represent the relationship between the total deer harvest in Wisconsin in comparison to the number of licensed hunters over the last ten years. Since 2000, the total deer harvest decreased by 46.8%, but the total number of licensed hunters has remained relatively steady and only decreased by 6.6%. This data suggests that the dramatic decrease in the deer harvest cannot be attributed to the possible explanation that there are simply fewer hunters every year. From 2000 to 2009, there was an average of .52 harvested deer per license. This implies that the 62,593 fewer licenses in 2009 would only account for 32,548 of the 289,171 fewer deer from 2000, roughly 11%. Because fewer licensed hunters only account for a small percentage of the decrease, it can be established that other forces and variables have had a more significant impact on the total deer harvest. The year 2000 was selected as the beginning time frame for this research because it produced the highest total deer harvest by any state on record and it also marks the point that the DNR decided to impose stricter Earn-a-Buck regulations. The graph visually portrays the effect that the Earn-a-Buck program has had on the total deer harvest in Wisconsin since its initial implementation. As seen on the graph, managing a species population does not produce a straight decline, but it is rather a cyclical process that declines slowly over time, but increases and decreases from year to year in response to post-hunt populations, winter severity, and breeding cycles. Overall, the Earn-a-Buck program has helped lower the total deer harvest from 618,274 deer in 2000 to 329,103 in 2009. 29 Large amounts of pressure and criticism from hunters and legislators forced Wisconsin wildlife officials to suspend the Earn-a-Buck program in 2009. Even though most hunters believe that the Earn-a-Buck program had forced deer population levels to sink too low, the map created using GIS represents how the majority of deer management units are actually still well over the desired population goal. Over 75% of the deer management units included on this map are over the set population goal and 23% of them contain deer populations than are more than doubled what they should be. Overall, the total post-hunt population of 990,100 for Wisconsin was over the desired goal of about 734,000 deer by 26%. In fact, the statewide post-hunt population has not been at or below goal since 1992. The top wildlife biologists in Wisconsin review these population goals every three years and determine how many deer each management unit can support. The goals reflect each unit’s ecological carrying capacity, maximum sustainable yield, and sociological carrying capacity. Wildlife managers do not set their standards with solely the hunters’ best interests in mind, but rather aim to set population goals that will produce a healthy herd, a healthy ecosystem, and minimize the amount of deer-related damage. An overpopulated deer herd can have serious implications on an area’s ecosystem, the spread of disease, and the safety of those who live there. One of the largest concerns that humans have in regard to overpopulated deer herds is the amount of deer-related traffic accidents and the resulting injuries. Wildlife technicians aim to keep deer densities down, especially in metropolitan areas, in hopes to reduce the risk of deer/vehicle crashes. The Earn-a-Buck program has reduced the total deer harvest significantly since the year 2000 and it has resulted in a decrease of accidents as well. A regression test comparing the two variables generated an R value of .337, which is a relatively strong value 30 when comparing human and animal activity. This signifies that there is a strong relationship between the amount of deer on the landscape and the risk of getting into a deer-related accident. The total number of deer-related accidents in Wisconsin decreased from 20,468 in 2000 to 16,338 in 2009, a decrease of 20.2%. The decrease in accidents has resulted in an obvious decrease in injuries resulting from deer/vehicle crashes. The regression test comparing accidents and injuries revealed an R value of .905, which is a significantly strong value and establishes the idea that the Earn-a-Buck program has helped reduce the amount accidents on the streets and has reduced the risk of injury for the people of Wisconsin. The total number of injuries resulting from deer-related accidents decreased by 41.2% from 2000 to 2009. The spread of chronic wasting disease is a growing problem in Wisconsin and the state spends millions of dollars every year for research and disease management. It is widely acknowledged that deer in overpopulated herds are at higher risk to contract disease because they are in close proximity to other infected deer and there is a limited food supply. There are no proven techniques to prevent the diffusion of Chronic Wasting disease, but deer population reduction and the removal of CWD-positive deer are believed to be the best management options. The original mission statement provided by the DNR enclosed an objective to reduce and remove Chronic Wasting disease from affected areas in Wisconsin and wildlife technicians hoped that the Earn-a-Buck program would help manage the disease and lower prevalence levels. So far, there is no evidence that the management techniques have decreased the prevalence of Chronic Wasting Disease. Regression tests comparing CWD prevalence and the deer harvest totals were verified as being statistically insignificant for both males (.342) and females (.055). While the number of harvested deer decreased by 11.5% from 2002 to 2009, the percentage of deer testing positive in males increased by 14.3% from 10.5% in 2002 to 12% in 2009. The 31 percentage of deer testing positive in females increased as well, growing from 4.7% in 2002 to 6.4% in 2009, an overall increase of 36.2%. The spread of Lyme disease in Wisconsin has also increased, despite the significant decrease in the total deer harvest. The ticks carrying bacteria are usually only present in places where there are large populations of deer. It is widely acknowledged that Lyme and all other deer-tick-borne diseases can be prevented by reducing the deer population that the ticks depend on for reproductive success. So far, there is no data that suggests that the decrease in the deer population has resulted in decreasing Lyme disease prevalence. Similar to the Chronic Wasting disease tests, the regression test proved to be statistically insignificant at .248 (Figure 5A). While the total deer harvest decreased by 46.8% from the year 2000, the total number of Lyme disease cases increased by 209.4% Management Implications Simply because the data does not suggest rapid change in the aforementioned disease rates, it does not necessarily imply that the management techniques are not working and should be discontinued. The Earn-a-Buck program is an effective management tool and the lower deer population has already proven to positively affect the risk of deer-related accidents. The prevalence of Chronic Wasting disease continues to increase, but deer population reduction is currently the only viable large-scale management option and must be continued in order to control the spread of the disease. Massive herd reduction is a plausible solution because it will reduce the population density and therefore reduce the opportunities for transmission and 32 translocation. Although efforts have not decreased the prevalence of Chronic Wasting disease, they may very well have at least slowed the rate at which it spreads. Many people believe that the fight against Chronic Wasting Disease is a losing battle and that the money spent for research could be used for better purposes. But data from Colorado and Wyoming has demonstrated that Chronic Wasting disease prevalence can reach high levels and become geographically widespread without control efforts. Monitoring in these states also reveals that CWD can drastically reduce deer populations. Most wildlife experts in Wisconsin agree that, without intervention, Chronic Wasting disease will spread further into state. As the prevalence of the disease increases, many fear that the overall deer population will decline and that the future my present limited opportunities to enjoy this Wisconsin resource. While hunters may currently be complaining about the low numbers of deer on the landscape, future hunts may be in even greater jeopardy as more and more deer succumb to the disease. The best time to manage the disease is right now, while the numbers are still relatively low and concentrated in one area. Without intervention, the disease could grow out of hand and create a problem that we may never be able to recover from. Although the number of Lyme cases continues to increase, the state of Wisconsin has been taking the proper actions to reduce the prevalence of the disease. It is suggested that by reducing the deer population to levels of 8 to 10 per square mile the tick numbers can be brought down to levels too low to spread Lyme and other tick-borne diseases (Stafford 2004). There are currently only three deer management units in Wisconsin that have a deer density less than 10 deer/mi². Although hunters think otherwise, the deer herd in Wisconsin is still overpopulated and needs to be smaller in order to reduce the risk of tick-related diseases. The program has yet to 33 reduce all of the deer management unit densities to lower levels near the desired goal, but it has been making significant progress. Retracting the Earn-a-Buck program now could eliminate all of the progress we have made towards reaching the desired population goals and making Wisconsin a safer and more balanced environment. For several years, the DNR has demanded that each hunter tags an antlerless deer before they can shoot a buck and it has proven to be an effective management program. The reduced deer herd has resulted in an increased amount of disgruntled hunters who reportedly see less deer on the landscape and often times are not allowed to shoot a buck because they have not previously shot a doe. This deliberation, now commonly known as “The Deer Wars,” has been argued tirelessly by those involved with hunting, conservation, agriculture, and forest ecology all around the state. Those interested in transportation safety, controlling disease, and preserving natural forests believe that the population numbers should be driven lower, while those who support hunting and the money generated from it demand more deer. I believe that the Earn-aBuck program needs to be reinstated in order to continue to manage the growing amounts of disease prevalence in the state and continue the positive results it has accomplished in reducing deer-related traffic accidents. I argue for full reinstatement of the program, but believe the Earn-a-Buck regulations could at least be altered to meet the needs of both wildlife biologists and the thousands of deer hunters that participate in Wisconsin’s hunting seasons every year. The Earn-a-Buck program should remain in place for all deer management units in the Chronic Wasting Disease Zone and at least be in effect for all deer management units that host a deer population more than 20% of the desired goal. Although it would be at a slower rate, ideally the overall deer population would 34 continue to decline and the statewide deer population estimates would lower closer to the desired goal. This program would create a better balance between hunters and wildlife officials. The deer populations would continue to decrease overall, but there would still be plentiful hunting opportunities and under populated units would be able to grow. Future Research There is a lot of opportunity for further research in this topic, especially after the suspension of the Earn-a-Buck program and the data that will be available in the next few years. Researchers will now be able to examine the Earn-a-Buck program more closely and evaluate the effect that it had on the environment. New data in disease and deer-related accidents will confirm whether or not the program had been working and if it is necessary to help solve the problems that are often associated with deer overpopulation. A significant increase in deer-related accidents and disease prevalence could signify that the Earn-a-Buck program had been fulfilling its intended task. The data also needs to be continually monitored over the next few years to fully understand the program’s effectiveness. 2009 marked the lowest deer harvest the state has produced in years and residual effects may not be noticed for years to come. More research could also be done to incorporate how the changing weather patterns affect the total deer population. Severe winters in northern Wisconsin can eradicate up to 30% of the deer herd. With continually changing global temperatures more deer may or may not survive through the upcoming winters. Winter severity could play a large role in the deer population management process and affect the need for mass culling. 35 This research project has only examined a few of the problems associated with deer overpopulation. More research could be done to study the effects that deer have on several other variables in Wisconsin like forest ecology and damaged farm products. These findings could either support or refute the idea that the Earn-a-Buck program has been positively affecting the physical and human landscape. 36 Acknowledgements - Special thanks to Dr. Kurt Piepenburg and Dr. Joy Nystrom Mast for continual guidance, support, and encouragement throughout the research process. - Additional thanks to Jessica L. Rees, a Wisconsin DNR employee. Jessica’s patience and assistance helped me acquire data sets needed to complete my thesis research. 37 Works Cited Belay, Ermias D. "Chronic Wasting Disease and Potential Transmission to Humans." Emerging Infectious Diseases 10, no. 6 (June 2004): 977-984. "Chronic Wasting Disease Background." Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources. http://dnr.wi.gov/org/land/wildlife/whealth/issues/CWD/background.htm (accessed September 2010). 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