Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Production in Jordan
M. Y. Mahadeen ; Omar B. Allahham
Ministry of Agriculture, Amman, Jordan
Keywords: Climate Change, Food Security, Environment, Jordan
1. Introduction
Climate change is seen as the most important change that will affect agricultural sector in developing
countries, as vulnerability of this sector is high and adaptation measures are restricted by the limited resources
of these countries. In Jordan, agriculture is one of the most sensitive sectors to climate change induced impacts.
Due to urban expansion in the high rainfall zones, rain fed agriculture had expanded towards the marginal lands
of arid and semiarid areas that receive less than 200 mm of annual rainfall. For many years, rain fed agriculture
in these areas suffered from droughts and accelerated soil degradation and overgrazing of natural
vegetation.(UNFCCC;2009)
According to the fact that, Agriculture is highly sensitive to climate variability and weather extremes - such as
droughts, floods and severe storms - the forces that shape our climate are also critical to farm productivity.
Human activity has already changed atmospheric characteristics such as temperature, rainfall, levels of carbon
dioxide (CO2) and ground level ozone. The scientific community expects such trends to continue. While food
production may benefit from a warmer climate, the increased potential for droughts, floods and heat waves will
pose challenges for farmers. Additionally, the enduring changes in climate, water supply and soil moisture could
make it less feasible to continue crop production in certain regions. IPCC,2007 concluded that ; the increased
frequency of heat stress, droughts and floods negatively affect crop yields and livestock beyond the impacts of
mean climate change, creating the possibility for surprises, with impacts that are larger, and occurring earlier,
than predicted using changes in mean variables alone. This is especially the case for subsistence sectors at low
latitudes. Climate variability and change also modify the risks of fires, pest and pathogen outbreak, negatively
affecting food, fiber and forestry. In Jordan case , according to the population growth and the need to increase
the food production by using modern techniques in Agriculture , the impact of climate change was affected the
water availability in Jordan . Jordan is experiencing harsh water shortage in different parts of the country due to
high fluctuations in annual precipitation; the only source of water. In addition, heat waves are becoming more
frequent in the region. Precipitation decrement and summer heat waves are being blamed on global warming
(Moshrik et al,2009).
2. Climate Factors
Several factors directly connect climate change and agricultural productivity in Jordan as the follow:
 Average temperature increase ; An increase in average temperature can:
1- Lengthen the growing season in regions with a relatively cool spring and fall.
2- Adversely affect crops in regions where summer heat already limits production.
3- Increase soil evaporation rates.
4- Increase the chances of severe droughts.
Change in rainfall amount and patterns: Changes in rainfall can affect soil erosion rates and soil
moisture, both of which are important for crop yields. The IPCC predicts that precipitation will
increase in high latitudes, and decrease in most subtropical land regions - some by as much as about
20% - While regional precipitation will vary the number of extreme precipitation events is predicted to
increase (IPCC,2007).
Rising atmospheric concentrations of CO2: Increasing atmospheric CO2 levels, driven by emissions
from human activities, can act as a fertilizer and enhance the growth of some crops such as wheat. CO2
can be one of a number of limiting factors that, when increased, can enhance crop growth. Other
limiting factors include water and nutrient availability. While it is expected that CO2 fertilization will
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have a positive impact on some crops, other aspects of climate change (e.g., temperature and
precipitation changes) may temper any beneficial CO2 fertilization effect (IPCC, 2007).
Pollution levels such as tropospheric ozone: Higher levels of ground level ozone limit the growth of
crops. Since ozone levels in the lower atmosphere are shaped by both emissions and temperature,
climate change will most likely increase ozone concentrations. Such changes may offset any beneficial
yield effects that result from elevated CO2 levels.
Change in climatic variability and extreme events: Changes in the frequency and severity of heat
waves, drought, floods and hurricanes, remain a key uncertainty in future climate change. Such
changes are anticipated by global climate models, but regional changes and the potential effects on
agriculture are more difficult to forecast (IPCC,2007)
3. Agricultural Production and Rainfall
Agriculture contributed substantially to the economy at the time of Jordan’s independence, but it subsequently
suffered a decades-long steady decline. Farming remained economically important and production grew in
absolute terms. Even with increased production, the failure of agriculture to keep pace with the growth of the
rest of the economy resulted in an insufficient domestic food supply, thus; Jordan needed to import such staples
as cereals, grains, and meat , so ; the total food import bill averaged between the years 1982 and 1985 was about
180 million JD/ year, accounting for more than 15 % of total imports during the period and cash crop exports
generated about 40 million JD/ year, yielding a net food deficit of 140 million JD. The suffering of the
agricultural sector continued in the 1990s into the present time despite the increase in production and exported
crops as shown in Figure (1). Much of Jordan’s soil was not arable even if water were available. Estimates show
that between 6% and 7 % of Jordan’s territory was arable, a figure that was being revised slowly upward as dryland farming techniques became more sophisticated. Only about 20% of Jordan’s geographic area received more
than 200 millimeters of rainfall/ year, the minimum required for rain-fed agriculture Figures 3and4
.(UNFCCC;2009)
Figure 1: Quantities of imported and exported crops in Jordan (MoA, 2006)
The high rainfall areas suffered from urbanization and land fragmentation which resulted in permanent loss of
these lands. Much of the country’s land can be classified as unsuitable for agriculture and rainfall varied greatly
from one year to another as shown in Figure 5 , so crops were prone to be ruined by periodic drought. In 1986
only about 5.5% (about 500,000 hectares) were under cultivation. Fewer than 40,000 hectares were irrigated,
almost all in the Jordan River Valley. According to arable, rain-fed land was exploited extensively, future
growth of agricultural production depended on increased irrigation. The cropped area decreased in the 1990's
into the new millennium as shown in Figure (2). In the year 2006, only about 80,000 hectares were irrigated out
of around 250,000 hectares of the total cultivated land (DOS, 2006). The most profitable segment of Jordan’s
agriculture is fruit and vegetable production (including tomatoes, cucumbers, citrus fruit, and bananas) in the
Jordan Valley. The rest of crop production, especially cereal production, remains volatile because of the lack of
consistent rainfall (UNFCCC; 2009).
Figure 2: Cropped area in Jordan (DOS, 2008)
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Figure 3: Rainfall Isohyets in Jordan.(MWI;2007)
Figure 4: Temporal Distribution of the rainfall over Jordan.( Dr. Muwaffaq Freiwan ; 2008)
Figure 5: Precipitation trends in Amman (upper) and Ras Muneef (Lower) .( Dr. Muwaffaq Freiwan ; 2008).
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4. Ministry of Agriculture and Climate Change
Ministry of Agriculture in Jordan was aware about the Climate Change , looking forward to share the world to
reduce the effect of Climate Change and Global warming , the following tasks was done by the ministry of
Agriculture to reduce the Negative effect of Climate Change, some of these activities are :
The Ministry of Agriculture has taken considerable measures needed to gradually reduce the using of
Methyl Bromide. This strategy is an embodiment of continuous efforts made to find out Methyl
Bromide alternatives, suitable for Jordan which signed Vienna Protocol in 1989 where many countries
were involved and obliged to stop using ozone layer depletion materials. The National Committee of
Montreal Fund, during Beijing conference/1999, agreed on financing an agricultural project in Jordan,
regarding MB alternatives projects' results, the committee approved on financing the national strategy
of Methyl Bromide phase-out according to Vienna agreement schedule1.
The Ministry of Agriculture laboratories for pesticide residue test the harmful pesticide residues in
Agricultural products.
Jordan become as a member of the Mediterranean Organic Agriculture Network (MOAN),in the year
2001; An organic farming society in Jordan was initiated in the Ministry of Agriculture.(lina AlBitar;2008)
Increasing the forest area and everlasting the forests including the biodiversity encouragement was one
of the challenges that ministry of Agriculture try to improve , to play a great role side by side with
other countries to eliminate the side effect of Climate change and Global warming.(MOA;2009)
The Ministry of Agriculture is currently preparing instructions for registration of bio-pesticides, formed
a committee of specialists in the Ministry of Agriculture and Jordanian universities, which will lead to
a relaxation of registration of these pesticide.(MOA;2009)
The development of the agriculture portfolio to mitigate the impact of drought on the plant and reduce
the use of machinery, fuel, pesticides and fertilizers.(MOA;2009)
The Ministry of Agriculture started using biological control to control several pests instead of using
chemical pesticide.(MOA;2009)
5. Awareness on Climate Change:
Everywhere in the dry areas, people are worried about increasing water scarcity and its implications on food
security, especially with climate change. Concerns over future food security of developing countries are justified
1Out of Metyl bromide in Jordan
http://www.ncare.gov.jo/OurNCAREPages/PROJECTMENU/RelatedPages/PhaseOutOfMB/en/Web%20Eng2_
files/page0008.htm
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as the water share of agriculture will certainly decline due to rapidly growing populations and diversions to
higher priority non agricultural sectors( Theib Owies ; 2010 ). Smadi et al., 2006 examined changes, trends and
fluctuations in the total rainfall and number of rainy days at Amman Airport Meteorological station in Jordan
during the period 1922-2003, they pointed out that Jordan is indeed being affected by the global warming.
The public opinion in Jordan does not seem to be very interested in climate change issues. The Jordanian society
is more sensitized to environmental issues affecting their daily lives (air and water pollution, solid wastes, water
shortage, etc…) which need immediate actions. Recently awareness campaigns were carried out by the Ministry
of Environment and other organizations focusing mainly on various environmental issues like energy and water
saving, waste minimization and sound waste management. During the past couple of years, a greater interest in
the issue of climate change has been growing globally, regionally and nationally. During the year 2008, the
Ministry of Environment and other national entities such as Greater Amman Municipality launched awareness
campaigns on climate change2. These campaigns sponsored by the private sector used several tools and targeted
different society groups including students. After these campaigns the kingdom’s schools were more interested
in the issues of climate change and consequently the Ministry of Environment participated in several activities
and lectures. The lectures focused at connecting the well known environmental issues such as water and energy
saving with Climate Change. On the other hand, the local daily newspapers published many articles on climate
change and other environmental related issues and several television and radio programs addressing the climate
change issues were broadcasted. (UNFCCC,2009).
NGOs, Academia or Private sector work on the potential impacts of climate change on a specific sector (water)
with precise statistics and indicators fail to answer the lack of proper policies and research to document potential
impacts on Jordan (drought, changes in rainfall patterns, impacts on water and agriculture). There are no
systematic assessment studies and that make the picture more blurred.
Planners and Decision Makers; The uncertainties associated with future threats caused by global warming, the
inability to identify its impacts at the regional and local level, and the threats of local land degradation associated
with long-term land degradation, are among the challenges planners and decision makers have to face in
selecting the best approaches and strategies to protect dry land resources. Development has site specific
requirements, and implementation has to consider local as well as regional and global drivers. At the same time,
decision makers and planner deals with many interrelated issues when dealing with the impacts of global
warming and land degradation. Adaptation of dry land farming systems to address these global , regional, and
local challenges will require fresh approaches related to new policies, and governance, research, and
technological tools ( Awni Taimeh ; 2010) . The impact of climate change on Agriculture and crops in Jordan
depend on the rainfall amounts , Jordan is a Mediterranean country that depends mostly on rain as its main water
resource. Recent years have witnessed shortage in the rainfall in different parts of the country. As a result,
numerous streams have dried out, underground water level has fallen to critical levels and most water aquifers
are experiencing high concentrations of Total Dissolved Solids (TDS), which makes them unsuitable for
domestic or irrigation uses (Moshrik et al,2009).
Governmentally, Jordan has signed all the environmental agreements pertaining to Climate Change. One of the
main opportunities that Jordan can gain from Climate Change management systems at the global level is the
Kyoto protocol which Signed by Jordan in 2001, the Protocol allows the developing countries to sell "virtual
carbon emissions" that are allowed for them and will not be reached to developed countries that have surpassed
their emission limits. Resent national assessment report of emissions and vulnerability in 1997 has been 10
years since the second report is being developed currently by a team of experts in the Jordanian Ministry of
Environment in a project supported by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). This report
provides an updated and precise assessment of the sources and amounts of emissions in the sectors of energy,
transport, agriculture, waste management and industrial development. The report also identify potential
mitigation measures to reduce emissions (enhanced technology, shift to renewable energies, etc…) and most
importantly to develop adaptation measure that will assist the various sectors to adapt to the impacts of climate
change.
The Jordan Biogas Company in Ruseifa is currently conducting negotiations with the government of Finland to
sell biogas generated from the Ruseifa landfill. The plant reduces methane emissions by utilizing solid waste for
generating electricity and producing organic fertilizers. This is the kind of innovation that can be sold in the
global carbon market with an average of 7.5 Euros/tone of carbon reduced (Batir Wardam,2009) .
6. Energy Sector and Climate Change in Jordan
Jordan has extremely limited primary energy resources and is forced to depend to a large extent on the imported
petroleum and natural gas from neighboring Arab countries. So Energy security becomes the major challenge
2 A total of 18 articles were published on the MoEnv Climate Change Campaign during the year 2008, articles
can be accessed on: <www.moenv.gov.jo>.
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facing Jordan’s sustainable development. So that, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) has
developed an integrated and comprehensive energy master plan for the development of the energy sector over the
next 20 years. The plan was approved by the Council of Ministers on December 7, 2004. Implementation of the
plan should yield a net increase in GDP of $250 million/ year for the Jordanian economy and will create a
number of investment opportunities, which will be structured to encourage and promote private sector
participation. On January 28, 2007, The Royal Energy Committee was formed to undertake the following tasks:
(1) Review and modernize the national energy strategy.
(2) Reconsider restructuring of the energy sector in Jordan and to recommend ways to
provide the needed energy, particularly the alternative and renewable energy resources.
(3) Draw a work program with clear mechanism and specified cost and time
frame.(UNFCCC,2009)
7. Temperature and Climate Change in Jordan
Jordan temperature affected as the all countries by Global worming Figure 6. . If climate change continues at its
current pace, the Kingdom is expected to witness a 1-2°C increase in temperatures by 2030-2050, resulting in
diminished aquifers and oases, reduced green cover, and the transformation of semi-arid lands, some 80% of the
country's total area, into arid deserts, according to environment experts ( Hana Namrouqa,2009). The mean
annual maximum temperature produces a great spatial variability in Jordan depending on the topographic nature
of the country. Winter maximum temperature has a characteristic increasing gradient from 9–13 °C in northern
and southern heights to 14–16 °C in the desert area to 19–22 °C in Jordan Valley. Maximum mean temperature
is inversely proportional to the elevation; it varies from 20 to 23 °C in mountainous areas and increases to 26 °C
in the desert region. In Jordan Valley, annual maximum temperature increases southward and varies from 29 to
31 °C. In summer, high averages of maximum temperature prevail and reach 38–39 °C in Jordan Valley, 35–37
°C in desert region and decrease to 26–29 °C in the mountainous region, causing a large spatial variation from
west to east and south. Minimum temperature is an important climatic element due to its deterministic relation
to agricultural activities. Mean annual minimum temperature differs from mean annual maximum temperature
by having the lowest values not in the northern heights, but in southern heights and in some of the arid areas.
Shoubak has the lowest mean annual minimum temperature (5.6 °C), which is followed by the QAIA (7.8 o C),
Mafraq (9 °C), and then the northern heights and the desert area. The warmest region in the country is Jordan
Valley where the mean annual minimum temperature ranges between 15.7 °C in the north and 19.5 °C in the
southern part of the Valley (Freiwan and Kadioglu, 2008). During summer the Jordan Valley is very hot, and the
mean daily maximum is 39 °C. The highest observed temperature is 51.2 ºC near the Dead Sea. During winter
the mean minimum temperature is about 9°C, the temperature is pleasant and frost is rare. In the mountainous
region it is rather cold during winter, and the mean daily minimum temperature is about 4 °C. The lowest
recorded temperature at Amman Airport is -7.5 °C, and at Shoubak is -12 °C. The annual number of days with
air frost is 10-15 days. During summer it is pleasant, and the mean daily maximum temperature is about 26 °C
to 30 °C. Amman, the capital of Jordan, is a mountainous city which enjoys four seasons of excellent weather
when compared to other places in the region. Summer temperatures range from 28 °C to 35 °C, but with very
low humidity and frequent breezes. Spring and fall temperatures are extremely pleasant and mild. The winter
sees nighttime temperatures frequently near 0 °C, and snow is known in Amman. As a matter of fact, it usually
snows a couple of times per year.
Figure 6 : Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990: Global Average in 2085 = 3.1oC . (
Abeer B. , 2009)
8. Result
Climate change can affect Jordan Agricultural Sector in several matters:
Lack of productivity of agricultural crops.
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Change the map of the geographical distribution of agricultural crops.
Negative impacts on agriculture and increasing marginal rates of desertification.
Increase the need for water due to rising temperatures.
Negative impacts on agriculture due to change in rates and times of heat waves.
Social and economic effects associated with.
Increase in temperature reduces the possibility of cultivation of marginal areas.
9. References,
Awni Taimeh , University of Jordan , 2010. Rethinking Agricultural Development of Dry Lands: Challenges of
Climate Change. International Conference on Food Security and Climate Change in Dry Areas,1-4
Feb.,2010 . Amman, Jordan.
Batir Wardam, 2009.Jordan and Climate Change. Jordan watch.
http://www.jordanwatch.net/archive/2009/5/883737.html
DOS, Department of Statistics (Jordan), 2003: Jordan in figures.
DOS, Department of Statistics (Jordan), 2006: Jordan in figures
DOS, Department of Statistics (Jordan), 2008: <www.dos.gov.jo>, July, 2008.
Freiwan, M. and M. Kadioglub, 2008. Spatial and temporal analysis of climatological data in Jordan. Int. J.
Climatol. 28: 521–535.
Hana Namrouqa, 2009a. Jordan to carry out Studies for new projects to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Arab
Environment Watch. http://www.arabenvironment.net/archive/2009/12/990813.html
IPCC, 2007. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II
to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F.
Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, UK, 976pp.
Lina Al-Bitar,2008.Organic Farming in the Mediterranean : towards further development. Mediterranean
Agronomic Institute of Bari (CIHEAM-IAMB), CIHEAM Analytical notes N030-March 2008.
MoA, Ministry of Agriculture (Jordan), Annual Report (2006).
Moshrik R. Hamdi, Mahmoud Abu-Allaban, Ammar Al-Shayeb,Mohammed Jaber and Naill M.
Momani,2009. Climate Change in Jordan: A Comprehensive Examination Approach. American Journal of
Environmental Sciences .vol.5 (1), Page: 58-68.
Muwaffaq Freiwan , 2008. CLIMATE, CLIMATIC TRENDS AND CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS
VULNERABILITY & ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE. Dissemination Workshop, “Enabling
Activities for the Preparation of Jordan's Second National Communication to the UNFCCC”20/11/2008.
UNFCCC , Jordan's Second National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC).Jordan Ministry of Environment: Amman: Deposit No.:2009/11/4731.
..JICA . ‫ الجمعية االردنية لخرجي جايكا‬.‫ التغيرات المناخية في االردن وتاثيرها على القطاع الزراعي‬. 2009 ,‫عبير البالونة‬.‫م‬
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