Ecosystem-based Adaptation to Climate Change Variability
A Typology for Effective and Prospective Action
A 2011 Group Project Proposal
2 June 2011
Researched and Produced by:
Teo Grossman
Danielle Storz
Cassidee Shinn
Sarah Clark
Nick Przyuski
Faculty Advisors:
Naomi Tague
James Frew & Chris Costello
Table of Contents
Abstract ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1
Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................................................ 1
Significance of Project ........................................................................................................................................................... 2
Project Objectives .................................................................................................................................................................... 3
Literature Review .................................................................................................................................................................... 4
The Field of Adaptation .................................................................................................................................................... 4
Theoretical Overview ................................................................................................................................................... 4
Soft Approaches.............................................................................................................................................................. 5
Hard Approaches ........................................................................................................................................................... 6
Ecosystem-based Approaches .................................................................................................................................. 6
IPCC Climate Projections for South America and Southeast Asia ................................................................... 7
Climate Projections for Southeast Asia ................................................................................................................. 7
Climate Projections for South America ................................................................................................................. 8
Issues in Coastal Flooding ............................................................................................................................................. 10
Coastal Flooding Adaptation ................................................................................................................................... 11
Ecosystem-based Adaptation.................................................................................................................................. 11
Issues in Inland Flooding............................................................................................................................................... 12
International Development and the Landscape of Adaptation ...................................................................... 14
Approach ................................................................................................................................................................................... 16
Economic Analysis............................................................................................................................................................ 18
Management Plan .................................................................................................................................................................. 19
Group Structure ................................................................................................................................................................. 19
General Group Meeting Structure .............................................................................................................................. 20
Systems to Ensure Deadlines are Met ...................................................................................................................... 20
Conflict Resolution Process .......................................................................................................................................... 21
Procedures for Documenting, Cataloging, and Archiving Information ...................................................... 21
Project Deliverables ............................................................................................................................................................. 21
Milestones................................................................................................................................................................................. 23
Budget ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 24
References Cited .................................................................................................................................................................... 25
Abstract
The proposed scope of this project is designed to assist our client, Conservation International (CI), with
organizing the current state of climate change adaption solutions. Specifically this work will focus on
collecting case studies of adaptation strategies for changing inland and coastal flood risks in South
America and Southeast Asia. Our main analysis will consist of a typology classifying adaptation
approaches ranging from ecosystem-based methods to hard, engineered infrastructural techniques
based on a literature review of global case studies. We will then produce a detailed cost-benefit analysis
comparing ecosystem-based and engineered solutions to climate variability for both an inland flooding
and coastal flooding example. The final typology of adaptation approaches and cost-benefit analysis
case studies will provide insight into future paths to climate change adaptation, pointing the way
towards an organized and rigorous conceptual model for sustainable outcomes.
Executive Summary
The global climate is changing rapidly due to the accumulation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas
emissions (GHGs) in the atmosphere. The effects of this rapid climatic shift will be broad, diverse and
felt across the planet in a myriad of ways. Strategic societal responses to climate change can be divided
into (1) mitigation of GHG emissions and (2) adaptation to a shifting climate. The physical realities of
climate change are such that even if all CO2 emissions ceased today, the climate forcing still in the
pipeline points towards a global mean temperature increase of roughly 2˚ C (Hansen 2008). Given this
projected pace and duration of climate change, adaptation efforts are currently seen as vital activities as
a complement to climate mitigation.
Adaptation responses will vary across the planet as a result of the range of possible future climate
impacts. Conservation International (CI) is specifically interested in the role of ecosystem-based
adaptation (EbA) and its relative value and effectiveness as compared to other adaptation approaches.
Other comparable approaches can be placed into two main categories: hard and soft. The latter refers
to policy changes and the former to engineered infrastructure. Along this spectrum of adaptation
strategies, this project will focus on coastal and inland flooding impacts from climate change in the
southern hemisphere.
This project will consist of two major components: the development of an EbA typology followed by a
cost-benefit analysis of several specific EbA case studies. A preliminary literature review will be
conducted in order to identify strategies to reduce exposure to climate-induced flooding impacts. This
review will be based on current adaptation approaches (when available) as well as adaptation to
historical climate variability, from which we will extract data related to flood impacts, geo-climatic
characteristics, socioeconomic setting, adaptive strategies, cost, feasibility and effectiveness. Historical
data is crucial due to the dearth of current literature on adaptation approaches specific to present day
climate change-induced flood variability.
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The goal of the typology is to organize available case studies from the adaptation literature. This
approach will develop a classification system that organizes the different approaches to reducing the
impact of climate variability, narrowing specifically on the impact from flooding. The typology will
generate two key outputs. First, purposeful organization and tagging of case studies will allow for quick
recall and across-case comparisons. Secondly, the typology provides for the documentation of
characteristics of successful projects. Analysis of these characteristics supports the development of a
broad conceptual model for implementation of EbA approaches.
The case studies will likely encompass a spectrum of planned methods for adaptation to reduce
vulnerability. A reduction in vulnerability can be achieved by modifying either exposure, sensitivity,
adaptive capacity or a combination of the three. It is worth noting that the project scope limits this
spectrum of responses between either EbA or engineered approaches, which represent strategies for
reducing exposure to the flood risks posed by climatic variability. In many instances communities will
respond in other ways, either utilizing soft approaches to reduce exposure or focusing on other
adaptation strategies such as decreasing sensitivity or enhancing adaptive capacity.
The project will attempt to normalize case studies as much as possible by utilizing broad project
characteristics (i.e. climate, geography, cost) with a goal of being able to compare projects across the
spectrum of approaches. This gradient of approaches will support the creation of a conceptual model
for who, where, when and how EbA is employed in place of infrastructure.
Utilizing the data gathered in the typology, the project will then identify candidate case studies on which
to perform cost-benefit analyses (CBA) comparing EbA and engineered approaches. The specific
mechanism and model to be utilized for the CBA is currently under consideration and
development. However, it is likely that the CBA will utilize the already fairly well-defined literature on
the value of ecosystem services (ESS). Within a set of case studies focused on adaptation to inland and
coastal flooding, the analysis will attempt to re-value specific ESS relative to projected flooding impacts
from climate change in order to garner accurate and appropriate cost and benefit data to be compared
against engineered responses.
Significance of Project
The global climate is changing rapidly due to the accumulation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas
emissions (GHGs) in the atmosphere. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC): “These changes in atmospheric composition [greenhouse gases and aerosols] are likely to alter
temperatures, precipitation patterns, sea level, extreme events, and other aspects of climate on which
the natural environment and human systems depend” (IPCC 2007). It is evident that such change is in
fact already occurring (IUCN 2010, Chang 2011).
Short- and long-term biological, climatic and physical changes brought upon us by the current (and still
rising) level of GHGs in the atmosphere require urgent consideration. Although adaptation to climate
variability is not a new human endeavor, it is a relatively recent theme in the literature on future climate
change impacts, which adds new and profound uncertainty to effective action. It is important to note
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that adaptation is a strategy separate from the direct mitigation of GHG emissions. Planned adaptation
is society’s a priori defense against risks caused by climate variability, whether those risks are to
agricultural crops, flood plain communities, coastline integrity or any other number of resources.
Adaptation will play a vital role in a world already committed to an estimated 2˚ C rise in mean global
temperature. (IUCN 2010).
There is no panacea to the problem of increasing climate variability. There is significant uncertainty
surrounding what successful adaptation looks like, what will be cost-effective and what is feasible to
implement (Berrang-Ford 2011). The proposed project for CI addresses planned adaptation and how
past lessons in adjusting to historic climatic variability can possibly be applied to present-day
considerations of pending climate impacts.
Our project proposes to collect and classify case studies of a range of adaptation approaches to flooding
variability in the southern hemisphere. We will also conduct an economic analysis of the relative costs of
infrastructural adaptation (engineering approaches) to the use of EbA.
The main impetus for a cost-benefit analysis of an EbA versus engineered approach is to begin
uncovering any patterns in effectiveness or efficiency. While in some instances climate impacts may be
so severe that infrastructure or coping by evacuating is the only feasible option, there still may be
instances where EbA provides a cheaper, effective solution. This issue is worth exploring because in
comparison to infrastructural mechanisms for controlling climate variability, EbA has a number of
potential co-benefits associated with it through ecosystem service provisions. In addition the negative
impacts of hard engineered solutions are well-documented and have real costs. For example, wetlands
International estimated that a proposed dam on the Niger River in Africa would result in a net monetary
loss of over 20 million dollars, based on costs and benefits to major economic sectors in the region such
as fisheries and agriculture (Garcia-Moreno 2010).
Considering EbA as a possible alternative to engineered approaches is a useful exercise for decisionmakers trying to balance conservation priorities with development pressures and risk reduction. With
limited resources, efficient solutions to adaptation will be essential to saving lives, ensuring sustainable
development and protecting biodiversity. Our project aims to provide preliminary analyses that will
allow informed, proactive decisions, based on strong evidence, rather than passive top-down reactions
to climate change impacts.
Project Objectives


Create a typology that classifies case studies of adaptation approaches to flood risk variability in
the southern hemisphere for automated information retrieval and comparison
Undertake two cost-benefit analyses, one for inland flooding in South America and one for
coastal flooding in Southeast Asia, that compares the net present value of EbA versus
engineered adaptation approaches
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
Generate a conceptual model to guide policy makers and managers through the process of
identifying different adaptation strategies to climate-induced flooding
Literature Review
The Field of Adaptation
Theoretical Overview
The literature is clear that there is insufficient data on the ground-truthed details of adapting to climate
change, and this literature is even sparser when focusing specifically on EbA projects rather than hard or
soft approaches. In a recent literature review of 1,741 climate change articles only 87 were related to
planned adaptation to climate change in human systems (Berrang-Ford 2011). The most recent IPCC
Assessment Report also notes that reporting on climate adaptation has been haphazard (IPCC 2007). In
addition, what planned adaptation has occurred has been mostly in developed countries and largely in
areas such as the Netherlands under significant threat of sea level rise, limiting the scope of research
(IPCC 2007, Berrang-Ford 2011).
Clearly, adaptation to climate change is a crucial component of climate change responses; separate but
related to climate change mitigation (reduction in GHGs). And in fact the field of adaptation theory is
highly developed. Terminology of adaptation revolves around discussions of vulnerability, risk,
susceptibility, adaptive capacity, etc. (Fussel & Klein 2006, Ionescu et al. 2009). CI determines the
ultimate impact of a climate threat by assessing an area’s vulnerability, adaptive capacity and the
particular threat in that area (David Hole, personal communication 2011). The IPCC Third Assessment
Report (2001) defined a potential climate impact (see Figure 1) through a vector’s exposure and
sensitivity to that impact, combined with adaptive capacity (IPCC 2001).
Figure 1 (IPCC 2001)
Once a climate impact is defined, adaptation is still not a simple concept. Smit et al. (2000) explain: “As
adaptation to climate change and variability has been subjected to more intensive inquiry, analysts have
seen the need to distinguish types, to characterize attributes, and to specify applications of adaptation.
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For example, adaptation can refer to natural or socio-economic systems and be targeted at different
climatic variables or weather events” (224). There are two main uncertainties that drive this
classification of adaptation: variation and uncertainty in climate change itself and uncertainty about the
vulnerability to a certain climate change impact in a given system (i.e. flooding in inland Peru). The IPCC
Fourth Assessment Report (2007) states, “…the assignment of probabilities to specific key impacts is
often very difficult, due to the large uncertainties involved.” While vulnerability to specific climate
change impacts may be calculable, the probability of that particular impact occurring is highly
unpredictable. And a climate impact’s locally-specific attributes and outcomes in a system create a
further degree of uncertainty.
Smit et al. (2000) therefore approach adaptation as a three stage process, asking the questions: (i) adapt
to what? (ii) who or what adapts? (iii) how does adaptation occur? They point out that “intervening
factors” can cause the same climate threat to have different effects in two different areas (e.g. based on
local infrastructure, geology, politics etc.), which is why it is crucial to define the system of interest
including its location and scale. How adaptation occurs is equally important, including whether it is
planned, prior to a climate impact, or a retroactive response (IUCN 2010, Smit et al. 2000).
Adaptation to climate variability is a large part of human history. Societies have consistently dealt with
periodic drought, flooding and large storms without full understanding of their timing or duration
(Dovers 2008). Over time, adaptation theory has split into three categories: soft approaches, hard
approaches, and ecosystem-based approaches. Prospective adaptation to climate change can rely on
this past and present-day experience to understand what approaches are feasible, effective and may
potentially provide sufficient risk-reduction in the future from pending climate change impacts.
Soft Approaches
Soft adaptation refers to policy and behavioral shifts. It encompasses community-based plans, national
policies, and international treaties for adapting to climate change and reducing vulnerability risks. Soft
approaches are often the first adaptation step that vulnerable communities and countries take and can
be used in conjunction with hard and EbA approaches. A common example is early warning systems,
which operate at the community level. The elements of the system include: “risk knowledge, monitoring
and warning, dissemination and communication, and the capacity to take appropriate action” (Buytaert
et al. 2009). Flood insurance is also considered a typical soft approach. Some island countries are
thinking beyond these options and focused on the worst-case scenarios of climate change, including the
possibility of completely relocating communities and/or the whole country. Globally, many countries
have made great strides in the last decade towards comprehensive goals and policies on this topic. The
World Bank is already financially supporting numerous countries’ soft adaptation projects and climate
change mitigation plans (World Bank 2009). Additionally, the United Nations Development Programme
(UNDP) and Global Environment Fund (GEF) jointly support international “Community-based
Adaptation” projects. For example, one pilot project is focusing on integrating risk-reducing practices
into community management of agro-ecosystems (Baldinelli 2010).
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Hard Approaches
Hard approaches are another risk reduction approach, but they rely upon man-made infrastructure.
Common examples of hard approaches to aid communities in adapting to climate change include, but
are not limited to, dams, irrigation systems, reservoirs, dykes, seawalls, levees, river channelization, and
rip-rapping—i.e. river bank stabilization with rocks (Sommer et al. 2001). Hard approaches have been
the approach of choice for more developed societies that can afford the technology and infrastructure.
The World Bank funded a large international study on understanding the potential economic impacts of
climate change to help vulnerable countries develop sound policies (The International Bank for
Reconstruction and Development & The World Bank 2010). These studies highly favored hard
approaches. Yet, research has begun analyzing whether hard approaches are the most cost-effective
and risk-reducing when compared to the other two approaches.
Ecosystem-based Approaches
EbA as defined by CI means: “…the use of natural systems as a way to buffer the worst impacts of
climate change, maintain the resilience of natural ecosystems, their ecosystem services and the species
that support them, and help people adapt to changing conditions” (CI 2011). Any restoration of
ecosystems likely involves some human engineering, however a dividing line must be drawn between
this and engineered infrastructure. We define engineered adaptation as: “The implementation of
planned, man-made infrastructure to mitigate the impacts of climate change.”
This literature review began by approaching EbA based on the concept that “biodiversity can (and
should) play a role in societal adaptation [to climate change]” (IUCN 2010). In this context, “EbA puts
special emphasis on ecosystem services that underpin human well-being in the face of climate change”
(IUCN 2010). In the realm of human-centered EbA, co-benefits arise whereby adaptation activities
enhance ecosystem functioning and biodiversity. However these are ancillary to the main goal of risk
reduction in human populations. It should be noted that while outside the scope of this study,
adaptation of natural systems for their own sake is of equal interest in the academic arena (BerrangFord 2011).
In order to determine the feasibility of implementing EbA projects more data is necessary, both on the
success of past projects as well as project cost. For the former it is important to understand what
biogeophysical characteristics of an area, what climate impacts, and what levels of vulnerability are
conducive to EbA approaches. For the latter, cost-benefit analyses can supply data on the economic
realities of implementing EbA projects in a particular country or region based on funding opportunities.
Cost data is crucial to both seek finances for and evaluate the efficacy of climate adaptation plans. To
move forward with projects, “Innovative financial mechanisms are needed…but remain challenging
because of the complexity of evaluating adaptation costs and benefits, and the sensitivity of political
negotiations related to international adaptation finance” (Vignola et al. 2009: 692), emphasis added.
Martin et al. 2009 add, “There is an urgent need for more detailed assessments of these [adaptation]
costs, including case studies of costs of adaptation in specific places and sectors” (7). Practical
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limitations in data such as these present serious impediments to implementation of EbA by limiting
project managers’ abilities to demonstrate feasibility.
IPCC Climate Projections for South America and Southeast Asia
Global Climate Models (GCM) remains the primary source of climate change prediction. Although there
have been steady improvements in (1) model resolution, (2) the simulation of processes of importance
for regional change, and (3) the expanding set of model results available (IPCC 2006), uncertainties
remain regarding the impacts of anthropogenic induced climate change. Despite uncertainties, IPCC has
released best-predicted trends in climate based on consistencies between predicted and observed
phenomena. Global trends reported by the IPCC include:

Warming greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes and least over the Southern
Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean, continuing recent observed trends.

Contraction of snow cover area, increases in thaw depth over most permafrost regions and
decrease in sea ice extent

Very likely increase in frequency of hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation.

Likely increase in tropical cyclone intensity; less confidence in global decrease of tropical cyclone
numbers.

Poleward shift of extra-tropical storm tracks with consequent changes in wind, precipitation and
temperature patterns.

Very likely precipitation increases in high latitudes and likely decreases in most subtropical land
regions, continuing observed recent trends.
(IPCC 2007)
Climate Projections for Southeast Asia
The most dominant type of weather event experienced in Asia is the tropical monsoon. Monsoons
occur with the seasonal reversal of wind direction caused by temperature gradients between the land
mass and the ocean. Torrential rains are linked to these winds. In April, temperatures warm over the
land forming areas of low pressure around Northern India and the Himalayan mountains. The air
temperature over the ocean is much cooler creating a high-pressure system. The difference in the
pressures cause the wind to flow from the ocean to the land bringing wet southwesterly winds across
South Asia in late May (Parker 2007). This initiates the monsoon season, which lasts from June until
September. Monsoonal flows, along with the tropical large-scale circulation, often weaken in global
warming simulations. However, simultaneously, there is the effect of enhanced moisture convergence
resulting in a warmer, moister atmosphere, which will dominate over the weakening of the circulation
resulting in increased monsoonal precipitation (IPCC 2007). Despite these projections, the impact of
climate change on the tropical monsoon is uncertain.
Interannual rainfall variability will be significantly affected by El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
patterns. During El Nino years, precipitation decreases in June to November, particularly in the southern
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and eastern parts of Indonesia Archipelago. Due to the temporal unpredictably of ENSO, it is difficult to
estimate changes in ENSO-related rainfall. Areas projected to see a decrease in rainfall are likely to
experience increased drought risk (IPCC 2007).
Temperatures of Southeast Asia are predicted to increase in the range of 1.5 – 3.7°C in annual mean
temperature during the 21st century. Furthermore, there is potential for significant local variation in
temperature changes due to the spatial variability of land in this region. There is a tendency for
warming to be significantly stronger over the interior of landmasses than in coastal regions (IPCC 2007).
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report’s (2007) robust conclusions:
 Warming in Southeast Asia will be similar to the global mean.
 December, January and February precipitation will likely increase in southern parts of
southeastern Asia.
 June, July and August precipitation will likely increase for most of Southeast Asia.
 Amplification in storm surge height may result from the occurrence of stronger winds associated
with increased sea surface temperature and low pressures associated with tropical storms.
 The rate of sea level rise is currently 1 – 3 mm/yr. Data suggests that the rate of sea level rise
has accelerated relative to the long-term average.
Uncertainties include:
 In this region, there is little comparison between model projections and observed climate means
and extremes.
 The uncertainty in future ENSO events contributes significantly to uncertainty about monsoon
behavior.
 There is an elevated possibility for local climate changes to vary greatly from region trends
because of the complex topography of the regions.
(IPCC 2007)
The following table borrowed from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007) illustrates the projected
surface air temperature and precipitation changes under SRES A1FI (highest future emission trajectory)
and B1 (lowest future emission trajectory) pathways for 2020, 2050 and 2080.
Climate Projections for South America
Changes in the intensity and location of tropical convection are the fundamental concerns for South
America, but extratropical disturbances play a role throughout the year in Southern South America (IPCC
2007). A continental barrier along the Pacific coast and the Amazon rainforest shape the climate of
South America (IPCC 2007).
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The South America Monsoon System dominates the mean season cycle of precipitation in tropical and
subtropical latitudes of South America (IPCC 2007). Because this system is strongly influenced by ENSO,
future changes in ENSO will initiate climatic changes in this region of the world. Further, displacements
of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone result in large increases in precipitation. This has occurred over
southern Brazil where the Amazon has experienced increasing rainfall over the last 40 years (IPCC 2007).
In Chile, the Mediterranean climate present makes this region particularly sensitive to drying as a
consequence of poleward expansion of the South Pacific subtropical high. Due to this same poleward
storm track shift, eastern South America will experience an increase in precipitation.
IPCC robust conclusions:
 All of South America is likely to warm during this century. In southern South America, warming
is likely to be similar to the global mean warming. In the rest of the continent, warming is likely
to be greater than the global mean.
 In the southern Andes, annual precipitation is likely to decrease, however changes in
atmospheric circulation may induce large local variability in precipitation changes in mountain
areas. The southernmost part of the continent, Tierra del Fuego, will likely experience
precipitation increases.
 During austral summer, precipitation is likely to increase in south eastern South America
Uncertainties:
 There is uncertainty in changes of the annual and seasonal mean rainfall for the northern region
of South America, including the Amazon. This is due to lack of understanding of biogeochemical
feedbacks and the lack of confidence in the projections for changes in the pattern of equatorial
Pacific temperatures.
(IPCC 2007)
The figure table below, borrowed from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007), displays the
projected temperature (C )̊ and percent precipitation changes for sub-regions of Central and South
America from seven GCMs and the four main SRES scenarios.
(IPCC 2007)
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Issues in Coastal Flooding
Global mean sea level is projected to rise by an average of 2-3 mm/year during the 21st century,
although this figure can be as high as 4.4 mm/year along the eastern coast of Asia due to land surface
movements (IPCC 2007). In conjunction with land subsidence, thermal expansion, and tectonic activity
along many coastal delta ecosystems in Asia, the projected relative sea-level rise (RSLR) is 40-90 cm by
the year 2050, depending upon the location (IPCC 2007). Low lying islands and coastal areas in Asia are
likely to experience large-scale changes in the distribution of habitable land due to coastal inundation.
The degree to which this coastal inundation will impact coastal Asian communities will depend upon the
realized level of RSLR and the human populations and infrastructure that fall within the potential flood
zone. There are 11 mega-deltas with an area of over 10,000 km2 of extreme socio-economic importance
as population-dense economic hubs, spanning a number of countries in Asia (IPCC 2007). According to
the IPCC, under a conservative estimate of sea-level rise (40 cm), the number of people susceptible to
coastal flooding in Asia will increase from 13 million per year to 94 million per year by 2050.
These staggering numbers only account for the relative contribution of sea level rise to coastal
inundation and do not address the potential for increased tropical storm frequency and intensity.
Increasing the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events can quickly transform an insignificant
mean change in sea level rise into a substantial impact once storm surge is accounted for. Studies show
that since the 1970’s hurricane destructiveness has increased due to longer storm lifetimes and greater
intensities (Emanuel 2005). The increase in severity appears correlated with increased sea surface
temperatures, a trend expected to continue (Emanuel 2005).
It is generally accepted that the three most likely responses to increased coastal flooding are protection,
accommodation, or retreat (IPCC 2007). The efficacy of these approaches will depend largely upon on a
variety of factors unique to the location of interest, including resource availability, capacity to
implement, and financial ability for adopting the strategy, to name a few. Considering the location of
large population centers and valuable economic activities on these Asian deltas, coastal protection has
come to the forefront in climate change adaptation strategies (Nicholls 2004).
The range of protection strategies available to coastal communities is as varied as the communities
themselves. Traditionally, coastal management professionals classified coastal protection adaptation
responses into two categories: hard and soft adaptation. Hard adaptation refers to erecting engineered
infrastructure to prevent coastal flooding such as sea walls, dykes, or levees. Soft adaptation, on the
other hand, has historically focused upon policy creation that sought to reduce the hazard risk
experienced by coastal communities, for instance establishing early-warning systems for tropical
cyclones or disaster mitigation plans for coastal communities. Recently, ecosystem-based adaptation
(EbA) has gained traction as a middle ground between the two disparate adaptation strategies as it does
not involve the construction of infrastructure but still seeks to provide a physical barrier to climatic
events.
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Coastal Flooding Adaptation
As with any adaptation to climate variability, the adaptation method employed will depend upon the
location and the severity of the stressor it is intended to mitigate. Coastal inhabitants have frequently
turned to engineering to protect communities from inundation. Infrastructure has ranged in complexity
from simple sea walls designed as a breakwater for wave action to more intricate levee systems like
those found in Denmark and New Orleans that must be engineered to hold back the sea.
Hard infrastructure in the coastal zone often conflicts with the natural processes in the region leading
ultimately to a reduction in ecosystem health and thus the services they provide (Hsu et al. 2007).
Although, in certain instances, engineered infrastructure is the only available option. One recent
example is the MoSE system under construction in Venice, Italy. These massive floodgates are intended
to prevent the city and its inhabitants from severe flooding from the rising seas and the land subsidence
occurring under the streets (UNESCO 2000). The hydraulic-powered, mobile floodgates lay flat on the
lagoon floor so long as normal tidal conditions are present but are designed to self-deploy if the tide
reaches a height above one meter (UNESCO 2000). In this sense, the gates are designed to allow natural
tidal flow up to a certain threshold. The price tag for the MoSE is estimated at $2.6 billion, not including
maintenance, and rising (Parry 2009). Obviously this level of funding is not typically available for coastal
infrastructure construction, especially in the developing world.
In the developing world, there have been some large-scale projects to mitigate the effects of coastal
flooding although they appear to be the exception rather than the rule. One example is the Safe Island
Project recently completed near the Maldives. This initiative converted an uninhabited island into a fully
functioning relocation community for over 6,000 tsunami-displaced citizens of the Maldives. The total
relocation and construction effort cost was approximately $45 million (Riyaz & Park 2010).
Not all coastal engineering projects involve relocating whole island communities or building large-scale
automatic floodgates. Where vulnerability is less severe, small-scale projects can be completed for much
lower costs. For instance in Vietnam, infrastructure enhancement for Cai Lan and Hai Phong, is
estimated to be $2 billion and $3 billion dollars, respectively, to raise the height of quay walls, improve
drainage systems, and increase the maintenance of port structures (EACC report 2010). In some cases,
these figures are still considered high and one attractive aspect of ecosystem-based adaptation is the
reduction in these maintenance costs.
Ecosystem-based Adaptation
Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) seeks to mitigate the impacts of climate change through the
conservation and restoration of natural ecosystems. Natural ecosystems are inherently resistant and
resilient to environmental change, although the degree to which they can cope is situation dependent;
where as man-made infrastructure is constructed for its rigidity. In addition, ecosystems provide natural
capital such as timber products, clean water, and fisheries upon which coastal populations depend
(World Bank 2009). It has been suggested that wetlands, mangroves, oyster reefs, barrier beaches, coral
reefs, and sand dunes can protect coastlines from flooding and storm surge in a more cost effective
manner than traditional engineered infrastructure (Adger et al. 2005).
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In coastal Asia, conservation and restoration projects focused on mangrove forest and coral reef
ecosystems have received substantial funding for their ability to protect low-lying coastal areas from
coastal flooding. According to the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands (2005), mangrove forests provide
approximately $300,000 per kilometer in coastal protection for Malaysia (World Bank 2009).
Healthy coral ecosystems in tropical Asia have become the focus of conservation groups not only for
their high biodiversity but additionally for their ability to shelter coastlines (World Bank 2009). Coral
Reefs have long been thought to attenuate wave action through increasing the frictional drag,
generated by the bottom topography, on wave energy. Sheppard et al. 2004 found that the coastline of
the Seychelles Islands that was protected by reef fronts greater than 500 meters in width experienced
reduced wave energy hitting the shoreline by an order of magnitude when compared to reef fronts less
than 100 meters in width. Previous studies have shown that in addition to reef width and rugosity, the
frictional drag imposed on wave energy increased as a function of live coral cover (Sheppard 2004).
In some cases, EbA is used in conjunction with infrastructure to ensure both protection of coastal
inhabitants and their livelihoods. In Vietnam, the Vietnamese Red Cross, in cooperation with the Danish
and Japanese Red Cross, recently finished a nine-year mangrove replenishment project that restored
over 18,000 hectares of mangrove forest along 110 kilometers of the coastline (IFRC 2002). The new
mangrove forest was planted on the seaward edge of a 3200-kilometer sea dyke system for a total cost
of $4.35 million. Thus far, the mangrove forests have saved an estimated $7.3 million per year in sea
dyke maintenance and substantially reduced the destruction caused by Typhoon Wukong in 2002 (IFRC
2002).
Issues in Inland Flooding
Climate change is projected to adversely impact South America, particularly Andean countries
(Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, and Ecuador). Temperature increases have been recorded since the 1940s, with
an average increase of 0.11 °C per decade for the overall tropical Andes region (Lotze-Campen et al.
2009). Since the 1970s, the increase has accelerated to 0.34 °C per decade, resulting in approximately 1
°C increase during the last century (Lotze-Campen et al. 2009). In addition, data shows increased
precipitation and aridity in the tropical Andes during the wet and dry seasons, respectively (IPCC 2007).
Changing temperatures and precipitation are affecting humidity, which highly impacts glacier melt
(Lotze-Campen et al. 2009). As glacier melt increases and snow-pack decreases, less reflective ice
becomes exposed and absorption of radiation increases, thus accelerating the melting process (Bradley
et al. 2006).
Indeed, glacier retreat is occurring in all Andean countries and data supports that many glaciers may be
gone in the next few decades (Bradley et al. 2006). Glacier melting presents a large risk to people living
in the region because of the increased runoff and abrupt changes in stream flow, due to the lack of a
glacial buffer during the dry season (Bradley et al. 2006). Additionally, new lakes are emerging due to
this rapid glacier retreat, increasing risks of “glacial lake outburst floods”, described as several orders of
magnitude larger than typical annual floods (Durand 2010). Climate change will have significant
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consequences for people living in the Andean region and those that depend on the glaciers for sustained
water.
Inland flooding from glacier melt is projected to be one of the largest climate change risks that these
South American countries face. Flooding will adversely impact their sustained drinking water and energy
supply— hydroelectric power is a large energy producer (Albert 2004, Lotze-Campen et al. 2009).
Communities along rivers are also exposed to increased morbidity and mortality from abrupt flooding
(Lotze-Campen et al. 2009). Andean countries are also particularly vulnerable to climate change because
it will impact their ecosystems and ecosystem functions on which these poorer countries rely heavily
upon for resources, like sustained fresh water. Additionally, changing temperatures and precipitation
will impact their traditional agriculture methods and food security (Lotze-Campen et al. 2009). “The
impacts of climate change will thus trigger manifold threats to the natural as well as several socioeconomic sectors” (Lotze-Campen et al. 2009).
Climate change adaptation and risk reduction has gained a lot of attention in the science and policy
sectors, as it has become a necessity for the most vulnerable countries. There are three types of
adaptation, including soft approaches, hard approaches, and ecosystem based approaches. Money and
research is pouring into local-scale adaptation projects to better understand these varying options and
their associated costs and benefits. Since “…it is in the tropical Andes that climate change, glaciers,
water resources, and a dense (largely poor) population meet in a critical nexus” (Bradley et al. 2006),
large organizations like the World Bank and international environmental organizations are focusing on
this region.
Andean countries have made great strides in the last decade in soft approaches, including
comprehensive goals and policies for adaptation. For example, the World Bank is financially supporting
Colombia’s Integrated National Adaptation Project, with its purpose being to define and implement
adaptation measures and policy options to meet the expected effects from climate change (The World
Bank, 2006). Bolivia has a similar program called the National Climate Change Program. The program
develops the country’s National Climate Change Action Plans and provides climate change education to
communities. The National Climate Change Program is focusing on water resources, food security,
health, human settlements and risks reduction and ecosystems (The World Bank, 2009). The United
Nations Development Programme and Global Environment Fund jointly support international
“Community-based Adaptation” projects. A pilot project in Bolivia is centered on building adaptation to
climate change by integrating risk-reducing practices into community management of agro-ecosystems
(Baldinelli, 2010).
Some hard approaches with potential to aid communities in adapting to increased inland flooding in the
Andes, are flood control techniques such as levees, river channelization, and rip-rapping—i.e. river bank
stabilization with rocks (Sommer et al. 2001). Bolivia was one of the seven countries thoroughly studied
in the World Bank funded international study mentioned on page 8, section Hard Approaches. This
study of Bolivia largely advocated for hard approaches, stating that “the guiding principle to adaptation
in the urban areas should be, as for rural areas, to develop at a faster rate and enhance proactive
measures such as increased maintenance of infrastructure and less restoration needs” (The World Bank,
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2010). Investments were made into constructing wells and reservoirs to increase its agriculture sector’s
resilience to climate change. The study specifically sites these hard approaches as being the most costefficient adaptation measure (The World Bank 2010). On the other hand, O’Hare & Rivas (2005) state
that in developing countries, such as most Andean countries, these engineered works are relatively
scarce and seldom exist for poor communities due to their initial high costs. Despite these associated
costs, the authors still argue in favor of hard approaches to reducing risk, through the installation of
physical structures such as drains and culverts (O’Hare & Rivas 2005).
Finally, ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) has gained popularity amongst environmental organizations
because it has potential to reduce societies’ impacts from climate change while simultaneously restoring
and protecting ecosystems. Given the dependency of poorer communities on natural resources, climate
change vulnerability reduction should include ecosystem management and restoration activities
(Partnership for Environment and Disaster Risk Reduction [PEDRR] 2010). Andean countries have
already recognized the value of EbA and are working together in a World Bank funded project termed
the Adaptation to the Impact of Rapid Glacier Retreat in the Tropical Andes (The World Bank 2008). Its
goal is to strengthen the resilience of local ecosystems and economies to the impacts of glacier retreat,
by implementing pilot adaptation projects to thoroughly understand the costs and benefits of
adaptation (The World Bank 2008). CARE, an international humanitarian organization, is currently
implementing these projects in Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru (Aguilar 2009). Many of these EbA projects are
so new that no preliminary results on costs and effectiveness have been published. There is one
completed study in Bolivia where a community replanted 7,000 ha of native trees between 1984 and
1998. Results revealed that restoring their ecosystem “had diversified livelihoods and improved both
slope stability and the condition of watersheds” (PEDRR 2010). They were essentially adapting to
climate change, by increasing their resilience to extended dry periods and landslides (PEDRR 2010).
International Development and the Landscape of Adaptation
One of the key theoretical components of adaptation, dealt with earlier in this review, is the question:
who adapts? Although it’s clear that long-term changes in the global climate will require adaptation
responses, it is less certain who will actually be engaged in the process of adapting. There is an
increasing focus on this in the climate change adaptation literature. Clearly there is a broad landscape
of actors and levels of society across which adaptive responses will be driven and emerge from.
Adapting to climate change involves cascading decisions across a landscape
made up of agents from individuals, firms and civil society, to public bodies and
governments at local, regional and national scales, and international agencies
(Adger et al. 2005)
In order to comprehensively understand and predict the appropriate adaptive response, it’s important
to identify who is adapting and where they are located in the decision-making system. For the purposes
of this project we are looking at ecosystem based adaption in the southern hemisphere. Without
engaging in primary research, the available data for a typology and comparative case studies is largely
driven by and/or documented by the international development community in partnership with national
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and regional governments. This data is scattered across NGO reports, World Bank documents and other
gray literature as well as tucked into some peer reviewed journals and research. Effective organization
and categorization of case studies is currently lacking in the field.
While adaptation itself is an inherently local activity, the funding and facilitation of adaptation activities
often incorporates national and international actors, particularly in the developing world. International
development funding is a fairly complex system and climate funding is no exception. There are
numerous development organizations, development banks, multi and bilateral agencies and other
actors pledging and providing funding for climate adaptation. Assuming a 2° C increase, anticipated
required costs for climate adaptation activities globally from 2010 to 2050 are estimated to be in the
range $70 to $100 billion (World Bank EEAC Report 2010). However, due to the global scale, tracking
and estimating the total amount of funding actually available is not an easy task. The World Resources
Institute estimates that $30 billion has been pledged in overall climate funding since the Copenhagen
conference, designed to be split evenly between mitigation and adaptation (Ballesteros 2010). The
difference between pledged and delivered is substantial. The “official” adaptation funding mechanisms
established by Parties to the Kyoto Protocol of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) are the Adaptation Fund, financed by a 2% share of proceeds from Clean Development
Mechanism projects, and three separate funds administered by the Global Environment Facility: the
Strategic Priority on Adaptation (SPA), the Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) and the Special
Climate Change Fund (SCCF) (World Bank 2010). The total funding pledged to these funds is estimated
at $565 million (Climate Funds Update 2011). Local and national funding varies from country to country
and region to region based on available resources, political will and other factors.
Outside of the UNFCC framework an additional set of international development actors exist. The World
Bank represents one of the largest players but the list includes other multi- and bi-lateral development
agencies such as Agence Française de Développement (France) and KfW Entwicklungsbank (Germany).
The Climate Investment Funds, administered by the World Bank, has received $6 billion from donor
countries with roughly $1 billion dedicated to the Pilot Program on Climate Resilience, an adaptation
oriented fund. The inequality of funding levels between UN agency funds and development bank
controlled funds is somewhat controversial, with concerns that competition for funding is undercutting
overall effectiveness (Win 2011). Regardless, the reality is that the bulk of the money thus far is flowing
to agencies like the World Bank to be dispersed according to their structures and guidelines.
A third ring of actors is the global NGO community. There are a tremendous variety of organizations
operating at multiple scales with different approaches, orientations and agendas. At times NGO’s are
the recipients of global development funds for project implementation although they also often provide
independent funding for their own projects on the ground.
A major international policy effort related to the identification of global adaptation to climate change is
a project under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
calling for National Adaptation Programs of Action (NAPAs). NAPAs provide a process for Least
Developed Countries to plan ahead in order to identify high priority adaptation projects. The creation
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and submission of these NAPAs to the UNFCCC presumably allows for international development
funding to be mobilized in support of these goals. The NAPA database currently contains Programs of
Action from 45 countries (UNFCCC 2011).
A related program is the Nairobi Work Program, which focused on developing a more thorough
understanding of vulnerability and adaptation in relationship to international development actions.
As mentioned, ecosystem-based adaption is a fairly new approach in what is a relatively nascent field to
begin with. With regard to the international development community, several agencies and NGO’s
emerge as “early adopters,” working to expand the research and development of EbA. These major
drivers include:
 The World Bank
 United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
 International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN)
 Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)
 Conservation International (CI)
 The Nature Conservancy (TNC)
 The World Wildlife Fund (WWF)
 Bird Life International
Approach
This project will conduct a typology focusing on two of the three types of adaptation: ecosystem-based
approaches and hard approaches, i.e. engineered-based approaches. In the literature, there are many
distinct and scattered instances where communities have implemented such approaches and this
typology will aim to effectively organize information collected from various case studies that determines
(1) the effectiveness of different adaptation approaches used and (2) the factors that favor one
adaptation approach over another. This approach will develop a classification system that organizes the
different approaches to reducing the impact of climate variability, narrowing specifically on the impact
from flooding. To focus the study, we will examine flooding instances in South America, as well as
Southeast Asia. The project will begin with an extensive and focused literature review to obtain specific
cases where adaptation to climate change, i.e. freshwater management practices in South America and
coastal protection in Southeast Asia, is in the process of planning, and in some cases beginning to be
implemented. Additionally, we will explore strategies that have been used historically to deal with
climate related flooding events. The latter will identify what approaches have been implemented to
lessen the intensity of impacts from events such as storm surges or flash floods. This information is
valuable because it would fill the existing gap in the current research by compiling a multitude of
sources providing hard data associated with adaptation. Further, adaptation approaches to climate
variability can be effectively applied to future climate change stressors, e.g. increased storm frequency
and intensity.
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Freshwater management and coastal protection are two management fields likely to be impacted by
climate change and thus are requested by CI to be our focal regions. To effectively and efficiently tackle
both of these interest areas, our team will divide into two subgroups. Sub-group 1 consists of Cassidee
Shinn, Teo Grossman and Sarah Clark, who will focus on freshwater management; sub-group 2 is
composed of Nick Przyuski and Danielle Storz, who will concentrate on coastal protection. The literature
review will locate case studies, where regions have adapted to coastal and inland flooding, through one
or a combination of the two approaches, i.e. ecosystem-based vs. engineered based approaches.
Initially, these case studies will be clearly defined by the location, the goal of the adaptation, and the
adaptation approach used. After clearly outlining these components, attention will be geared towards
what factors may influence the decision concerning which adaptation approach was chosen. Additional
research into published reports, gray literature and national databases will quantify the following for
each case study:










The size of the area the approach is protecting
The ecosystem present for each location and the services it provides
An economic indicator broken down into internal and external sources of funding for the
adaptation approach
The main source of economy for the area of each case study, e.g. artisanal fisheries, agriculture,
etc.
The climate of the region, specifically mean precipitation during wet and dry seasons, mean
temperature for each season, frequency of extreme events (e.g. typhoons)
The type of stressor the adaptation is providing protection from and its magnitude, as well as
what controls the stressor
The elevation of the location
Geographic information: Latitude/longitude
Topology of the region, e.g. in the case of coastal protection this would be the slope of the
coastline to high grounds
The cost of the approach used
Obtaining this information will lead to an extensive, rigorous and organized database. Additionally, we
will look to identify other features and characteristics that seemed particularly important in determining
the selection and effectiveness of the approach used for lessening the climate-driven impact on
identified areas. We anticipate having a spectrum of adaptation approaches established, ranging from
solely adaptation based to solely engineered base, with a combination of approaches in between.
Additionally, we will identify as many characteristics of each case study as possible to deduce why a
specific region may have selected the chosen approach. The case studies that we identify and the
supporting data we obtain will set the stage for our dependent variable to be the adaptation approach
used and our independent variables will be the characteristics of each study site. With this, we can
explore which adaptation approach is best suited for a given location, based on its characteristics.
Further questions for our group to explore include: Why was a certain adaptation used for a given
location, and which adaptation approach is best suited for a given location? Additionally, if a certain
adaptation approach was used, e.g. engineered approach, would an ecosystem-based approach have
served better?
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Having quantified as much characteristic type data as possible, we will have the ability to compare two
similar locations by controlling for the variables. We will couple case studies by identifying two sites
with very similar characteristics, e.g. ecosystem present, topology, climate, etc., but that also have
contrasting adaptation approaches, i.e. ecosystem-based versus engineered-based. We will pair these
case studies exclusively within South America and exclusively within Southeast Asia. We will work to
identify sites where there is sufficient data available to conduct an economic analysis for both a paired
region in South America, and a paired region in Asia.
Economic Analysis
Possible approaches to the economic analysis component of this project are still being vetted. One
potential strategy, provided by a project advisor, would seek to determine the value of ecosystem
services (ESS) in light of climate variability. This approach would utilize the already fairly well defined
literature on the value of ESS.
The first step establishes the status quo value of the ESS provided by a particular ecosystem. Regional
and global ESS estimates have already been completed for many of the ecosystems of interest that are
adapting to climate-induced flood variability. Benefits that may be a part of this analysis include:


Direct benefits of implementing the approach, i.e. the number of hectares of area that will be
protected by the approach. Benefits specifically associated with the reduction of risk
Indirect benefits would include co-benefits associated with the adaptation approach, not
directly related to risk reduction.
The second component of the analysis incorporates climate change. The specific question for this phase
focuses on the change in value of the ecosystem services given projected climatic-induced flood
variability. This component requires additional research and conceptualization. The specific approach
has yet to be developed by the project team at this point although the literature review and
consultation with outside advisors is anticipated to yield a worthwhile approach.
The third step will require an assessment of the costs of the adaptation project, hopefully readily
available in the literature. Cost data does appear to be more common particularly for projects
implemented through international financing organizations such as the World Bank. Costs to consider
include:
 Direct costs of implementing the adaptation approach, i.e. the amount of money spent to install
the approach and maintenance.
 Indirect costs of implementation, e.g. if providing funds to the approach drew funds away from
elsewhere and environmental impacts.
The final step would look at the services provided by a comparable engineered approach under the
status quo as well as under increased climate-induced flood variability.
In both instances, a range of climate projections would be incorporated to account for the uncertainty of
future conditions. This would allow for an effective analysis looking at a range of possible scenarios with
probabilities attached to each. It should then be possible to compare the value of each adaptation
18 | P a g e
approach and to identify the best option(s) from the range of outputs from this analysis given the costs,
benefits and uncertainties involved.
Description of Data and Sources:






Publications including books, newspapers, Environmental Impact Reports (if available), journal
articles, gray literature
TEEB Ecosystem Services Valuation Database
COPI Value Reference Database
InVEST tool developed by the Natural Capital Project
NGO Websites: UNEP, WWF, Conservation International, The Nature Conservancy, The World
Bank, etc.
Google Scholar, Web of Science
The group has been forewarned by various advisors that a thorough CBA analysis may not be feasible,
and if it is not possible to obtain comprehensive costs and benefits, then cost-effectiveness analyses will
be conducted for multiple paired case studies in both regions. Again, these regions will be paired based
on similar characteristics and contrasting approaches. The cost-effectiveness analysis will consider an
end goal, e.g. protecting island nations to coastal flooding due to typhoons, and the approaches to
achieve that goal. The analysis will evaluate the two different approaches to this goal, and determine
which approach achieved the goal by the most cost-effective means.
Management Plan
Group Structure
The Adaptation team is composed of five student members, one primary faculty advisor, two client
contacts (one primary, one secondary), and two external advisors. In order to manage the flow of
information, relationships and communications, the Adaptation team proposes the following general
group structure.
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The following roles and responsibilities have been identified as necessary to execute the project.
Project Managers: Teo Grossman / Danielle Storz. The Project Manager is responsible for organizing and
leading group efforts towards a successful project. Primary responsibilities include: scheduling weekly
meetings, developing and disseminating meeting agendas, correspondence with the faculty advisor,
correspondence with client, delegating responsibility and internal deadlines, ensuring all deadlines are
met, and promoting communication throughout the project team. When possible, correspondence
with sensitive or important information to client or faculty advisor will be cleared by all group members
before being communicated.
Financial Manager: Cassidee Shinn. The Financial Manager is responsible for creating and tracking the
project budget, resource allocation, and reimbursement. To complete this task the Financial Manager
will need to build and maintain a working relationship with Financial and Operations Coordinator, Mike
Best.
Data Managers: Teo Grossman / Nick Przyuski. The Data Managers are responsible for maintaining the
group’s shared online information on dropbox, maintaining references within Zotero, setting up
protocols for individual document use, and storing/backing up completed work.
Web Manager: Sarah Clark. The Web Manager is responsible for designing and maintaining the group’s
website. She will update the site as needed and ensure compliance with Bren School policies.
Documentation Wizard: Cassidee Shinn. The Documentation/Records Manager is responsible for
documenting and making accessible meeting minutes. This document will include a summary of each
meeting and clearly lay out the objectives to be completed as delegated during the meeting by the
Project Managers.
General Group Meeting Structure
The group will hold at least one meeting each week, to include the faculty advisor for all or part. The
Project Managers will schedule meetings and reserve rooms using Corporate Time and develop and
distribute an agenda prior to the meeting. The Project Managers will also hold the responsibility of
managing the time allocated to each agenda item. The Documentation/Records Manager will be
responsible for taking notes during the meeting to be stored in the group-meeting log. Client meetings
will be scheduled as needed based on communication with client.
Systems to Ensure Deadlines are Met
It is the duty of the Project Managers to ensure that deadlines set by the school are met. The Project
Managers will, at the start of each quarter, compile a list of internal deadlines that are necessary to
meet school deadlines. Once the list is compiled the group will evaluate the feasibility of the timeline
and will agree upon a finalized list of internal deadlines, which will then be made accessible via email
and the group’s Dropbox folder. As the quarter progresses, the Project Manager will take time in the
weekly meetings to identify upcoming deadlines. Adherence to these internal deadlines will be crucial
20 | P a g e
for the group to work effectively toward the end goal. In the event that an individual within the group
cannot meet an internal deadline they are encouraged to notify the group as far ahead of time as
possible but at least 24 hours prior to that deadline.
Conflict Resolution Process
Any problems arising in the group should be addressed immediately, and if possible, resolved between
the disputing parties. If the conflict persists, a group meeting will be scheduled in order to create a plan
of action to resolve the issue. If the problem cannot be resolved in this fashion, the faculty advisor or
other neutral party will be called in to mediate the process.
Procedures for Documenting, Cataloging, and Archiving Information
Online Dropbox storage will be the primary instrument for accessing most shared documents. Group
writing should ideally take place on GoogleDocs. If for some reason shared documents need to be
assembled in Word, the following is requested: to prevent two group members from working on the
same document at the same time, when reviewing or editing a document, group members will remove
the document from the shared folder onto their own personal desktop, and will remember to place the
document back into the shared folder when they are finished working. Once a document is finalized, the
Data Managers will create a backup copy to be stored in our Bren group project directory. The Bren
group project directory (G:drive) will be the primary instrument for managing other large, data-intensive
items (i.e. GIS files). Additionally, group members are encouraged to save copies of all important
documents on their personal computers in order to avoid actualization of Murphy’s Law. To ensure
access, documents will be saved in .doc or .xls (as opposed to .docx).
Project Deliverables
This project will achieve multiple goals aimed at informing and guiding policy makers deciding best
management strategies for adapting to the potential impacts of climate change. In particular, the
project will focus upon the risk of increased flooding events, both inland and coastal, that are likely to
occur as a consequence of climate change. In addition to the written and oral report the following
deliverables will be produced:

A Cost-Benefit Analysis or Cost-Effectiveness Analysis for Conservation International comparing
ecosystem-based adaptation and traditional infrastructure-based adaptation to climate induced
flooding.
This report will analyze case studies on increased inland flooding in South America and increased coastal
inundation in Southeast Asia.

A typology and relational database that will be:
a) Organized by case studies based upon the type of adaptation approach taken in
conjunction to numerous, common characteristics of the various locations.
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b) Searchable by individuals considering adaptation who are familiar with the
characteristics of interest for their location.
c) Able to generate a range of studies sharing input criteria similar to the location of
interest and the potential applicability of an ecosystem-based approach to climate
induced flooding.

A conceptual model that could guide policy makers and managers through the process of
thinking about how to adapt to climate-induced flood variability.
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Milestones
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Budget
Fixed Costs
Printing
Phone calls ($0.23/min)
Final Presentation
Final Posters
Project Briefs & Manuscripts
Materials
Administrative Supplies
Books/Online Resources
Travel
Conference Attendance
Total
$200
$50
$400
$150
$50
$100
$550
$1500
The Bren School of Environmental Science and Management will allocate $1300 to cover varying project
expenses, plus an additional $200 for printing costs. The Financial Manager will monitor monthly
expense reports. Any budget adjustments will be directed to the Financial Manager. This budget will be
continuously updated to reflect any discussed or unforeseen changes.
 Phone: Conference calls are necessary to maintain communication with our client and external
advisors. We have decided to use Skype, in lieu of Bren’s telephone service. Skype provides a
free Skype-to-Skype online calling service, which is used by our Client. If we must place calls to
landlines we will still use Skype and have allocated $50 for over 12 months.
 Printing: Our initial $200 printing allotment will be used for routine printing of literature and
document drafts. We are estimating the professional printing of our final project poster, briefs,
and manuscripts at a cost of $550.
 Administrative supplies and software: We anticipate spending up to $25 on administrative
supplies, such as bulletin board, world map, and any other office products. We may also need to
purchase books or online resources not available through Bren or UCSB library system.
 Travel: We are allocating money to alleviate some travel costs for at least one group project
member to attend a conference in Durban, South Africa to present our preliminary data in
December 2011.
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References Cited
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across scales. Global Environmental Change Part A, 15(2), 77-86.
doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.12.005
Adger, N.W., Hughes,T.P., Folke,C., Carpenter,S.R. & Rockstrom,J. (2005b) Social-ecological
resilience to coastal disasters. Science, 309, 1036-1039.
Aguilar, S. (2009). Adaptation to the Impact of Rapid Glacier Retreat in the Tropical Andes
Project. CARE Climate Change Information Centre. Retrieved from:
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Albert, J. (2004). Project Executive Summary. Integrated National Adaptation Plan: High
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Baldinelli, G. (2010). Resilience to Climate Change: the Community-Based Adaptation
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Ballesteros, A. (2010). Summary of Developed Country “Fast-Start” Climate Finance Pledges.
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