Documentation of Custom Measure Costeffectiveness Parameters Commercial/Industrial/Agricultural (C/I/A) Calculated Incentives Programs Energy Savings Values The C/I/A Calculated program savings are based on one aggregated forecast of savings and then split to the three components as follows: 85% Commercial (3220), 10% Industrial (3231) and 5% Agricultural (3237). The savings at the measure category level were based on goals for the entire program spread to the individual categories or measure types based on historical data and program manager judgment. The forecast was not done at the project level as the incentive rates are offered at the kWh/therm level. In the DR at page 2, ED asks SDG&E to provide “…..installation counts that represent the number of project/measure installations expected each year not the number of kWh or therms expected to be claimed each year.” Since the forecast was not developed at a project level SDG&E’s response can only be hypothetical based on average values of savings per project. To prepare this response, SDG&E calculated the simple average savings per measure category from its 2011 Annual Report data that included the “Bid Program” that is not being implemented in 2013-13. Then the savings from the C/I/A we programs were aggregated to one set of values by measure category for the two year period. The aggregated savings were divided by the historical average savings per project in each measure category to yield a value. This value is SDG&E’s best answer to the DR inquiry into the estimated number of project/measure installations. Since the values are for a two year period, SDG&E spread the aggregated values to 2013 and 2014 using a 51/49% split based on the respective year’s goal. Given the diversity of projects and the wide variance in the savings per project, SDG&E does not consider these values part of its forecast. They are provided sole for the purpose of responding to this DR. These values are listed below in Table 1. 1 Table 1 Historical kWh Historical Savings per Therm Savings Simple Average Project per Project Projects 2013-14 10,217 61.00 17,598 152.49 8,198 15.74 317,609 31.29 253,529 43.64 46,773 16.19 103,740 46.46 150,364 40.12 10,880 13.37 66,951 84.47 11,282 16.89 30,370 3.52 64,864 2.82 19,058 137.41 16,050 13.37 45,893 2.11 32,374 1.41 1,652 159.09 38,125 5.63 38,125 5.63 79,526 15.49 31,446 249.31 31,446 747.92 868,295 1.41 15,171 102.25 15,171 306.74 168,815 82.36 24,832 27.59 24,832 137.97 13,960 4.22 6,780 2.82 50,467 192.68 Measure Category 411021-Gas - Boiler Upgrades 411022-Gas - Process Other 411020-Gas - W/H Lg Storage 411002-HVAC - Chiller 411005-HVAC - Controls/Controlling Equipment 411006-HVAC - Energy Mgmt. System 411004-HVAC - Non Conditioned Space Ventilation 411007-HVAC - Other HVAC 411001-HVAC - Split & Packaged A/C units 411003-HVAC - VFD 409027-Lighting - Exterior Induction 409028-Lighting - Exterior LED 411019-Lighting - Exterior Lighting Controls 411018-Lighting - Exterior Lighting Fixtures 409024-Lighting - Exterior Linear Fl. Lighting 409025-Lighting - Exterior Pulse Start MH 411013-Lighting - Interior CF Fixtures 411015-Lighting - Interior CFLs 447260-Lighting - Interior LED 409031-Lighting - Interior LED - Dual Baseline 411016-Lighting - Interior Lighting Controls 447262-Lighting - Interior Linear Fixtures 411012-Lighting - Interior Linear Fixtures - Dual Baseline 409029-Lighting - Interior Pulse Start MH 447261-Lighting - Other Interior lighting 411017-Lighting - Other Interior lighting - Dual Baseline 411023-Misc. Custom Electric 447263-Motors - Non HVAC Motors (ER) 411011-Motors - Non HVAC Motors (ROB) 411008-Refrigeration - Compressor and Condenser Upgrades 411009-Refrigeration - Insulation 411010-Refrigeration - Other Refrigeration 2013 Value 29.89 74.72 7.71 15.33 21.39 7.93 22.77 19.66 6.55 41.39 8.28 1.72 1.38 67.33 6.55 1.03 0.69 77.95 2.76 2.76 7.59 122.16 366.48 0.69 50.10 150.30 40.36 13.52 67.61 2.07 1.38 94.41 2014 Value 31.11 77.77 8.03 15.96 22.26 8.26 23.69 20.46 6.82 43.08 8.62 1.80 1.44 70.08 6.82 1.08 0.72 81.14 2.87 2.87 7.90 127.15 381.44 0.72 52.15 156.44 42.00 14.07 70.37 2.15 1.44 98.27 For measures that have dual baseline, the percentage of second period savings relative to the first year savings is documented in a spreadsheet entitled “DualBaselineFactors.xls”. In general, DEER values and/or approved work paper ratios were followed. For the purposes of forecasting KW and Therm values associated with electric measures, SDG&E used historical KW/kWh and therm/kWh values. These values are provided in Table 2 below. 2 Table 2 Measure Category 411002-HVAC - Chiller 411005-HVAC - Controls/Controlling Equipment 411006-HVAC - Energy Mgmt. System 411004-HVAC - Non Conditioned Space Ventilation 411007-HVAC - Other HVAC 411001-HVAC - Split & Packaged A/C units 411003-HVAC - VFD 409027-Lighting - Exterior Induction 409028-Lighting - Exterior LED 411019-Lighting - Exterior Lighting Controls 411018-Lighting - Exterior Lighting Fixtures 409024-Lighting - Exterior Linear Fl. Lighting 409025-Lighting - Exterior Pulse Start MH 411013-Lighting - Interior CF Fixtures 411015-Lighting - Interior CFLs 409031-Lighting - Interior LED 411016-Lighting - Interior Lighting Controls 411012-Lighting - Interior Linear Fixtures 409029-Lighting - Interior Pulse Start MH 411017-Lighting - Other Interior lighting 411023-Misc. Custom Electric 411011-Motors - Non HVAC Motors 411008-Refrigeration - Compressor and Condenser Upgrades 411009-Refrigeration - Insulation 411010-Refrigeration - Other Refrigeration GrosskWhSavings 14,115,496 15,718,824 1,075,768 6,846,865 8,570,755 206,726 8,034,178 270,772 151,848 259,457 3,720,286 304,955 137,678 64,748 373,258 610,002 1,749,563 44,546,741 1,736,590 8,814,129 19,751,391 4,867,012 83,757 27,119 13,813,729 155,851,646 GrosskWSavings 1,596 1,339 8 667 700 115 451 3 2 529 26 14 54 75 21 7,515 334 1,088 2,071 480 9 3 1,527 18,626 KW/KWH 0.000113 0.000085 0.000007 0.000097 0.000082 0.000557 0.000056 0.000018 0.000008 0.000142 0.000084 0.000216 0.000145 0.000123 0.000012 0.000169 0.000192 0.000123 0.000105 0.000099 0.000106 0.000114 0.000111 0.000120 GrossThermSavings 5,942 177,057 14,533 63,553 14,093 575 38,136 2,184 17 316,090 Therms/KWH 0.000421 0.011264 0.013509 0.007415 0.001754 0.000013 0.001931 0.000449 0.000001 0.002028 Measure Costs (full & incremental) SDG&E used historical customer reported cost as the basis for measure cost when possible/available. SDG&E worked with the other IOUs to develop a common methodology to use historical project costs to estimate a full and incremental measure costs. To be consistent, SDG&E tried to use either SCE’s or PG&E’s values when SDG&E’s estimates seemed significantly different from the other IOUs. For gas measures, SDG&E coordinated with SoCalGas. The values can be found in the Excel workbook entitled “SDG&E Measure Cost IMC Data Summary.xls” Measure Life (EUL & RUL Values) SDG&E used the DEER EUL values and methodology posted on the DEEResorces.com website. For measures with dual baseline, the RUL value was computed at 1/3rd of the EUL. The exception is linear fluorescent lighting measures where the RUL was computed (20,000 hours/ 3180 hours)/3 = 2.096 years. The 3180 hours value is from the “Com” building type, for the “IOU” climate zone, which are weighted averages. 3 Net to Gross (NTG) SDG&E used the NTG values posted DEEResorces.com website with the exception of the NTG values for custom gas measures that where provided in D.12-05-015. Savings by Design (Nonresidential New Construction) Energy Savings Values The Savings by Design program’s (SBD) energy savings are developed in a considerably different way than the C/I/A calculated program. The “measures” or “measure category” are more modeling output groupings from the building simulation models than deemed measures. In general, each project is unique as the goal is to work with the design teams to change the design from a code design to a design that exceeds code by varying percentages. Projects are at both the whole building level or at the systems levels. The forecast was based on scaled values of historical savings by measure In the DR at page 2, ED asks SDG&E to provide “…..installation counts that represent the number of project/measure installations expected each year not the number of kWh or therms expected to be claimed each year.” Since the forecast was not developed at a project level SDG&E’s response can only be hypothetical based on average values of savings per project. To prepare this response, SDG&E calculated the simple average savings per electric or gas measure category from its 2011 Annual Report data. These values are provided in Table 3 below. 4 Table 3 Measure Category 408031-Refrigeration Systems kWh Supermarket 408021-Interior Lighting Systems kWh 408006-Whole Bldg-Space Cooling kWh 408012-Whole Bldg-Heating Rejection kWh 408035-Other Systems kWh 408007-Whole Bldg-Lighting kWh 408009-Whole Bldg-Indoor Fans kWh 408028-Low SHGC Glass kWh 408044-Whole Bldg-Domestic Hot Water kWh 408024-HVAC Systems kWh 408018-Daylighting Systems kWh 408026-HVAC Systems Therms 408037-Other Systems Therms 408033-Refrigeration Systems Therm Supermarket 408034-Service Hot Water 408045-Whole Bldg-Domestic Hot Water Therms 408004-Whole Bldg-Peak Demand KW 408008-Whole Bldg-Space Cooling Therms 408005-Whole Bldg-Space Heating Therms Historical kWh Historical Savings per Therm Savings Simple Average Project per Project Projects 2013-14 585,642 9 184,731 21 76,157 82 54,329 20 45,443 1 38,058 68 24,061 71 16,457 5 8,816 7 8,751 14 8,336 1 75 3.13 708,450 0.80 3,636 3.54 554 33.03 427 0.39 161 3,176 0.79 47.98 2013 Value 4.24 10.40 40.02 9.63 0.39 33.12 34.66 2.31 3.47 6.93 0.39 1.53 0.39 1.73 16.19 0.19 0.39 23.51 2014 Value 4.41 10.82 41.65 10.02 0.40 34.47 36.08 2.40 3.61 7.22 0.40 1.60 0.41 1.81 16.85 0.20 0.40 24.47 Measure Costs (incremental) The measure cost for the SBD program is a rather difficult parameter to quantify for a number of reasons. 1) Since there a number of ways to exceed the building standard the cost of doing that can vary considerably based on the original design; 2) The cost of exceeding the building standard is not expected to be linear - for example increasing the SEER of an air conditioner has a cost that increases exponentially; 3) With re-design, there are often cost savings as well as additional costs; and 4) Since the increases with the percentage over the building standard, SDG&E needed to use a value of measure cost that is a not to exceed amount rather than a fixed value. SDG&E started with costs based on work by Equipoise Consulting in October 2000. The values were altered to accommodate variable incentives and changing costs. SDG&E believes that this is an area that needs additional study and analysis. In February of 2008, The Heschong Mahone Group issued a white paper entitled “Incremental Measure Cost in New Construction Programs”. While this is a few years old, SDG&E believes that this is a good starting place for a study to develop incremental cost parameters. Moving forward, SDG&E plans to work with the Energy Division and other IOUs to develop a methodology to determine estimated incremental costs for the SBD program. Measure Life (EUL & RUL Values) SDG&E used the DEER EUL values posted on the DEEResorces.com website. Since SBD has broad categories, SDG&E used conservative or most common/applicable values from the list for the particular category. For example, the “Whole Building” categories, SDG&E used 15 years, while most of the bigger saving measures have EULs of 20 years. 5 Net to Gross (NTG) SDG&E used the NTG values posted DEEResorces.com website. California Advanced Homes Energy Savings Values The California Advanced Homes (CAH) program’s energy savings were developed in a similar manner as the SBD program. The forecast was done by scaling the 2010-2011 results to meet the goal for the program. The “measures” or “measure category” are more modeling output groupings from the building simulation models than measures in a deemed program. In general, each project is unique as the goal is to work with the design teams to change the design from a code design to a design that exceeds code by varying percentages. In the DR at page 2, ED asks SDG&E to provide “…..installation counts that represent the number of project/measure installations expected each year not the number of kWh or therms expected to be claimed each year.” Since the forecast was not developed at a project level SDG&E’s response can only be hypothetical based on average values of savings per project. To prepare this response, SDG&E calculated the simple average savings per electric or gas measure category from its 2011 Annual Report data. These values are provided in Table 4 below. Table 4 Measure Category 406023-Thermostatic Valve and 1.6 GPM SH SF * 406024-Thermostatic Valve and 1.6 GPM SH MF* 406028-Space Heating Therms 406029-Space Cooling kWh 406030-Space Cooling KW 406032-Indoor Fans kWh 406037-Domestic Hot Water Therms 406041- Energy Star Bonus * - note these are deemed values Historical kWh Historical Savings per Therm Savings Project per Project 21 29 53 898 183 80 Simple Average Projects 2013-14 100 40 577.36 621 197 720.00 2013 Value 282.91 304.48 96.39 352.80 Measure Costs (incremental) The measure cost for the CAH program is a rather difficult parameter to quantify for a number of reasons. 1) Since there a number of ways to exceed the building standard the cost of doing that can vary considerably based on the original design; 2) The cost of exceeding the building standard is not 6 2014 Value 100.00 40.00 294.45 316.90 100.33 367.20 expected to be linear - for example increasing the SEER of an air conditioner has a cost that increases exponentially; 3) With re-design, there are often cost savings as well as additional costs; and 4) Since the increases with the percentage over the building standard, SDG&E needed to use a value of measure cost that is a not to exceed amount rather than a fixed value. Moving forward, SDG&E plans to work with the Energy Division and other IOUs to develop a methodology to determine estimated incremental costs for the CAH program. Measure Life (EUL & RUL Values) SDG&E used the DEER EUL values posted on the DEEResorces.com website. Since CAH program has broad categories, SDG&E used conservative or most common/applicable values from the list for the particular category. For example, the “Space Heating” categories, SDG&E used 18 years, while most of the bigger saving measures have EULs of 20 years. Net to Gross (NTG) SDG&E used the NTG values posted DEEResorces.com website. Since the CAH program measure categories encompass a large number of DEER measure categories, it is difficult to determine the appropriate NTG value. SDG&E believes that the correct value should be a weighted average a set of DEER NTG values somewhere in the middle of the value for EUC and the default. When populating the E3 dataset, the link in the forecasting system grabbed the wrong value and selected a value of 0.36 for room A/c units. SDG&E intended to select a value of 0.55 as a conservative value for the forecast filing. SDG&E will work with Energy Division to determine the appropriate value to use. Energy Upgrade California Energy Savings Values Energy Upgrade California (EUC) program’s energy savings were developed based on median values for the completed homes in the 2010-11 program. The individual site level savings are based on model simulations. From the 200 homes that in the program database, the median kWh, KW and therm savings are 625 kWh, 0.50 KW and 143 therms. Measure Costs The program data list self-reported project cost with a mean and median of $12,234 and $10,120, respectively. The project cost data has a significant amount of variance. The standard deviation of the data equals $7,729. In addition the median incentive from the EUC program was $2,000. Given the above, SDG&E believed that the mean and median project cost values are not a reasonable representation of the cost of the measures associated with the savings. SDG&E used a value of $4,000 as the measures cost. This value was selected because it seemed more reasonable that a residential customer would pay about ½ of the cost of the energy saving measures. 7 Measure Life (EUL & RUL Values) SDG&E used a measure life of 20 years as the measures in the EUC program are long-lived measures such as insulation, furnaces, etc. Net to Gross (NTG) SDG&E used the NTG value posted DEEResorces.com website for EUC. 8