Assessing the hydrology of Victoria’s wetlands using remote sensed imagery: a pilot study B. Cant, P. Griffioen and P. Papas June 2012 Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Technical Report Series No. 228 Assessing the hydrology of Victorian wetlands using remotely sensed imagery: a pilot study Belinda Cant1, Peter Griffioen2 and Phil Papas1 1 Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research 123 Brown Street, Heidelberg, Victoria 3084 2 Peter Griffioen Peter Griffioen Consulting Heidelberg Vic 3084 June 2012 Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Department of Sustainability and Environment Heidelberg, Victoria Report produced by: Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Department of Sustainability and Environment PO Box 137 Heidelberg, Victoria 3084 Phone (03) 9450 8600 Website: www.dse.vic.gov.au/ari © State of Victoria, Department of Sustainability and Environment 2012 This publication is copyright. Apart from fair dealing for the purposes of private study, research, criticism or review as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced, copied, transmitted in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical or graphic) without the prior written permission of the State of Victoria, Department of Sustainability and Environment. All requests and enquiries should be directed to the Customer Service Centre, 136 186 or email customer.service@dse.vic.gov.au Citation: Cant, B., Griffioen, P. and Papas, P. (2012). Assessing the hydrology of Victorian wetlands using remotely sensed imagery: a pilot study. Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Technical Report Series No. 228. Department of Sustainability and Environment, Heidelberg, Victoria ISSN 1835-3827 (print) ISSN 1835-3835 (online) ISBN 978-1-74287-471-5 (print) ISBN 978-1-74287-472-2 (online) Disclaimer: This publication may be of assistance to you but the State of Victoria and its employees do not guarantee that the publication is without flaw of any kind or is wholly appropriate for your particular purposes and therefore disclaims all liability for any error, loss or other consequence which may arise from you relying on any information in this publication. Accessibility: If you would like to receive this publication in an accessible format, such as large print or audio, please telephone 136 186, or through the National Relay Service (NRS) using a modem or textphone/teletypewriter (TTY) by dialling 1800 555 677, or email customer.service@dse.vic.gov.au This document is also available in PDF format on the internet at www.dse.vic.gov.au Front cover photo: Wetland in south-west Victoria Authorised by: Victorian Government, Melbourne Printed by: NMIT Printroom, Preston Contents Acknowledgements...........................................................................................................................iv Summary ............................................................................................................................................1 1 1.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................2 Current knowledge of wetland hydrology in Victoria ..............................................................2 1.2 MODIS imagery .......................................................................................................................4 2 Methods....................................................................................................................................5 The steps involved in the development of models to predict water regime were as follows. .............5 2.1 Pre-processing MODIS data to align with VICGRID ..............................................................5 2.2 Analysis of imagery ..................................................................................................................5 2.3 Development of the Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) .........................................................6 2.4 Hydrological classification used for this study .........................................................................7 2.5 Reasons for the failure to detect water ......................................................................................7 2.6 Validation and confidence ........................................................................................................8 3 3.1 Results ......................................................................................................................................9 Water regime categories ...........................................................................................................9 3.2 Validation: model discrimination and reliability ....................................................................10 4 Discussion ..............................................................................................................................10 5 References ..............................................................................................................................13 Appendix: Features of MODIS data relevant to wetlands ..........................................................15 iii Acknowledgements Funding for the project was provided by the Department of Sustainability and Environment’s Natural Resources Investment Program. Comments on the draft were provided by Dr Kay Morris, Dr Andrea White, Janet Holmes and Matt White (Department of Sustainability and Environment). iv Assessing the hydrology of Victorian wetlands using remotely sensed imagery: a pilot study Summary At present there is no empirical information about hydrology for the vast majority of wetlands in Victoria. In this report we present a pilot study that explores an approach to estimating wetland water regimes (wetting and drying cycles) from remotely sensed imagery. We applied this approach to assessing the water regimes of Victoria’s wetlands over an 11-year period, from March 2000 to February 2011. MODIS imagery was used as the primary source of data for modelling the presence of surface water because its temporal resolution allows intra-annual and inter-annual surface water variability to be assessed. The minimum spatial resolution of MODIS is 250 250 m (6.25 ha). Therefore the attribution of water regime data to wetlands using MODIS imagery is constrained to wetlands larger than about 6 ha (approximately 40% of wetlands in the Victorian Wetlands 1994 inventory). Additionally, MODIS sensors may not detect the presence of water accurately if it is under vegetation cover. The presence of water was estimated from a supervised classification of MODIS data, using an artificial neural network (ANN). The classification used the four MODIS reflected solar bands (blue, red, near infrared and medium infrared), Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). For training data we used a manual selection of 5000 pixels in many known wetlands of a variety of types and landscape contexts that appeared to contain water in an average image, and a random selection of 10000 pixels of dry land. MODIS detected water at 1204 (20%) of the 6740 wetlands greater than 6 ha. Of these 1204 wetlands, 39% (473) were classified as episodic, 31% (376) as seasonal and 22% (264) as intermittent, and 7% (91) as permanent. Many wetlands may have remained unusually dry over the period because of prevailing drought conditions. Predictions were tested for validation and confidence against 71 wetlands that were observed to contain some water during state-wide Index of Wetland Condition (IWC) field assessments in 2010 and 2011. MODIS correctly detected the presence of water at 32% of these wetlands. The low proportion of wetlands in which water was correctly detected by MODIS was attributed largely to the limitations of the training data. Vegetation cover (both canopy cover and emergent wetland vegetation) also limit the ability of MODIS to detect water. Steps for improving the utility of MODIS for detecting water and characterising wetland hydrology are presented. Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Technical Report Series No. 228 1 Assessing the hydrology of Victorian wetlands using remotely sensed imagery: a pilot study 1 Introduction The hydrology of wetlands is defined by their water regime (duration, frequency and timing of inundation), water source and depth of inundation (Reddy and DeLaune 2008). Understanding the hydrological processes of wetlands is fundamental to effective ecosystem restoration and creation (Mitsch and Gosselink 2000). The hydrology of wetlands in Victoria needs to be characterised to inform policy, decision-making and the management of wetlands because hydrology is the key driver of their development and continuing existence (Bedford 1996). A hydrogeological understanding of wetlands also provides a framework for explaining the diversity of wetlands across the landscape (Bedford 1996). In keeping with contemporary Victorian wetland policy documents (DSE 2005), a wetland is defined here as any natural or artificial area that (a) is permanently, periodically or intermittently inundated, (b) when inundated, holds still or very slowly moving water, and (c) has or could develop a biota adapted to inundation and the aquatic environment. This definition includes waterbodies such as lakes, swamps, fens, marshes, peatlands, springs and some intertidal areas. Not all these types of wetlands were included in the analysis (see Section 2.2). This report outlines the methods and results for a pilot study that explored the utility of remotely sensed data from MODIS imagery to determine wetland water regimes for Victoria’s wetlands. Wetland water regimes were classified according to the new Victorian wetland classification (DSE in prep.). The objectives of the project were to: test the utility of MODIS imagery for detecting the presence of water in wetlands larger than 6 ha develop a data analysis procedure to assess seasonal and annual patterns of surface water presence in wetlands during 2000–2011 assign water regime categories to wetlands (as defined here) that are represented on the Wetland 1994 inventory, based on the outputs of the data analysis procedure. 1.1 Current knowledge of wetland hydrology in Victoria While wetland hydrology is widely accepted as the most important driver of wetland function and diversity, it has been difficult to elucidate at broad spatial scales. Expensive equipment required to measure hydrology and the long time needed for such a study have made it prohibitive to collect empirical data for characterising wetland hydrology for any more than a few wetlands in each study (e.g. Williams 1978, 1981, 1992; Jones et al. 2001). Where studies attempted to describe the hydrology of multiple wetlands at a landscape scale, surrogates were used instead of hydrological data. These surrogates were based on assumed geomorphic relationships (e.g. shallow depressions were assumed to be non-permanent wetlands), or the use aerial photo analysis of one point in time and ancillary vegetation data to build a qualitative temporal understanding of hydrology. The Corrick system, which has been used for the last three decades to categorise wetlands in Victoria, provides an example of this non-empirical method. Wetland categories developed by Corrick include water regime attributes such as water depth and the duration and timing of inundation (Corrick 1981, 1982) (Table 1). At present there is no empirical information about hydrology for the vast majority of wetlands in Victoria. We present an empirical, longitudinal study and methods for estimating wetland water regime (wetting and drying cycle) from remotely sensed imagery. 2 Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Technical Report Series No. 228 Assessing the hydrology of Victorian wetlands using remotely sensed imagery: a pilot study Table 1. The Corrick wetland classification system currently used in Victoria (Corrick 1981, 1982). Category Subcategory Depth (metres) Sewage ponds Undefined Undefined Salt works Undefined Undefined Herb-dominated Sedge-dominated Red gum-dominated Lignum dominated < 0.3 Herb-dominated Sedge-dominated Cane grass-dominated Lignum-dominated Red gum-dominated < 0.5 Shrub-dominated Reed-dominated Sedge-dominated Rushdominated Open water Cane grass-dominated Lignum-dominated Red gum-dominated <2 Shallow Deep Impoundment Red gum Cane grass Dead timber Black box Rush Reed Sedge Shrub Lignum <2 >2 Salt pan Salt meadow Salt flats Sea rush Hypersaline lake Melaleuca Dead timber <2 Shallow Deep Intertidal flats <2 >2 Freshwater meadow These include shallow (up to 0.3 m) and temporary (less than four months duration) surface water, although soils are generally waterlogged throughout winter. Shallow freshwater marsh Wetlands that are usually dry by mid-summer but fill again with the onset of winter rains. Soils are waterlogged throughout the year, and surface water up to 0.5 m deep may be present for as long as eight months. Deep freshwater marsh Wetlands that generally remain inundated to a depth of 1–2 m throughout the year. Permanent open freshwater Wetlands that are usually more than 1 m deep. They can be natural or artificial. Wetlands are considered permanent if they retain water for longer than 12 months, although they can have periods of drying. Semi-permanent saline These wetlands may be inundated to a depth of 2 m for as long as eight months each year. Saline wetlands are those in which salinity exceeds 3000 mg/L throughout the year. Permanent saline These wetlands include coastal wetlands and part of intertidal zones. Saline wetlands are those in which salinity exceeds 3000 mg/L throughout the year. Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Technical Report Series No. 228 3 Assessing the hydrology of Victorian wetlands using remotely sensed imagery: a pilot study 1.2 MODIS imagery The MODIS instrument takes images of the entire surface of the Earth every one to two days (NASA 2012). Images obtained over a 16-day period are made into one composite image and are freely available from NASA. Data acquired by MODIS was used to model surface water because of its spatial coverage and because its high temporal resolution allowed intra and inter-annual surface water variability to be assessed. The minimum spatial resolution of MODIS is 250 250 m (6.25 ha). Therefore, the attribution of water regime data to wetlands using MODIS imagery is constrained to wetlands larger than about 6 ha. Another constraint was that vegetation cover in a wetland (i.e. canopy or emergent vegetation) will produce an estimate of dry rather than wet, whether or not the wetland is holding water. This is because the training data defined open water as wet and terrestrial areas as dry to supervise the classification. The MODIS dataset used for this research contains four solar reflectance bands, centred at wavelengths of approximately 469, 645, 858, and 2114 nm. The utility of indices derived from MODIS composite images within these bands for assessing hydrologic conditions has been demonstrated in several studies (Johnston and Barson 1993, Ordoyne and Friedl 2008) (see Appendix). MODIS data has a number of benefits, namely: 1. 2. 3. 4. it has a relatively high temporal resolution/coverage (16 days) it is open-access the original raw images are pre-filtered for clouds and artefacts a variety of complete MODIS products such as composite images are available at three resolutions: 250 m, 500 m and 1000 m 5. efficient tools exist to obtain MODIS products and import them to GIS applications. In contrast, higher spatial resolution imagery (e.g. De Alwis et al. 2007, Proisy et al. 2007, Poulin et al. 2010, Lu et al. in press) will produce highly accurate estimates of water extent but has limited utility for assessing wetland hydrological dynamics. This is because the the images are not taken often enough to enable an analysis over short periods such as seasons or years. 4 Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Technical Report Series No. 228 Assessing the hydrology of Victorian wetlands using remotely sensed imagery: a pilot study 2 Methods The steps involved in the development of models to predict water regime were as follows. 1. Align MODIS data to the VICGRID projection. 2. Identify the most suitable (cloud free) images for each season and year. 3. Modify the Wetland 1994 dataset to exclude tidal wetlands and assign a 250 m buffer to each wetland to account for incorrect positioning of some wetlands. 4. Develop Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to predict presence of water. 5. Assign a hydrological classification (i.e. permanent, seasonal, intermittent, episodic) based on model results. 2.1 Pre-processing MODIS data to align with VICGRID Terra satellite image composites (MOD13Q1.005) from March 2000 to February 2011 were acquired. MODIS is provided in sinusoidal map projection in which image pixels are distorted when compared to more common map projections such as VICGRID94 which is widely used in Victoria. To overcome this, MODIS raw images were first resampled onto VICGRID94. 2.2 Analysis of imagery The presence of water was estimated from MODIS 16-day atmospherically corrected bi-directional surface reflectances that had been masked for clouds, heavy aerosols and cloud shadows. In order to ensure reasonable processing time, one average best-quality (cloud free) image was selected for each season and calendar year. Images were created by first using a novel algorithm to search through each set of images acquired for a season to select pixels with the highest possible quality. These were then averaged to produce a single best-quality image for that season and year. The Wetlands 1994 spatial dataset was modified to include only non-tidal wetlands greater than 6 ha. This left 6740 wetlands to be submitted to the model. A 250 m buffer was delineated around these wetlands to overcome a potential displacement error in the dataset that can result in a wetland occurring up to 250 m from its true location. This is a large buffer and represents a conservative approach to correcting the error. A 100 m buffer may have sufficed in most instances, but it was decided to maximise the chance that a pixel being counted as having water present actually did so (Figure 1). Figure 1. An example of the application of the 250 m and 100 m buffers. Each pixel represents yearly average value of relevant MODIS bandwidths. The black line is the Wetland 1994 boundary, the red line is a 100 m buffer and the green line is a 250 m buffer. Bright purple indicates water present and all other colours indicate water is absent. The wetland is mapped approximately 250 m south-east of its true location (the location that holds water on average Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Technical Report Series No. 228 5 Assessing the hydrology of Victorian wetlands using remotely sensed imagery: a pilot study throughout the year). 2.3 Development of the Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) From a MODIS image we considered a pixel that could either contain water (labelled 1) or be dry (labelled 0). Satellite images provide radiance measurements from that pixel at various wavelengths, which constitute the inputs to the ANNs. A radial basis function neural network (Broomhead 1988, Moody and Darken 1989, Haykin 1994) was parameterised with six variables as input (MODIS bands), 500 neurons in the hidden layer and one variable as output (presence of water where ‘0’ selected as dry and ‘1’ selected as water present). The ANN performed a regression. The output of each node in one layer is connected to the inputs of all the nodes in the next layer. The strengths of the connections are represented by continuously variable, signed multipliers known as ‘weights’. The values of these weights are adjusted when training the ANN. The ANN was built in two phases: the training phase and the testing phase. Training data was manually selected from known wet and dry pixels. Five thousand pixels were selected from wetlands that contained water by visual inspection of three randomly selected averaged yearly images (see Section 2.2), which was the maximum number possible in the time available for the study. Ancillary hydrology information was also used if it was readily available. Ten thousand pixels of dry land (not within wetlands or streams) were randomly selected. The ‘wet’ points were used in a back-propagation method, and a gradient descent algorithm was applied to a sum-ofsquares error function to automatically adjust the weights and thresholds of the links in the network to minimise error. This process is equivalent to fitting the model represented by the network to the training data available. The error of a particular configuration of the network can be determined by running all the training cases through the network and comparing the actual output generated with the desired or target outputs. The ANN considered a series of labelled samples (0 = no water, 1 = water) and generated an output value from each set of input values After each such presentation its internal weights were adjusted until the ANN’s behaviour was stable and its output matched the true values maximally without overfitting the model (Gardner and Dorling 1998). The ANN thus ‘learned’ to recognise the correct output from the input feature-values. The weights are adjusted during this process. In the testing phase the weights remained fixed at the values established in the training phase, and the ANN computed output values for a series of samples from an independent data set. We then were able to model the (unknown) function that related the input variables to the output variables, and to make predictions when the output is not known (www.statsoft.com/textbook/neuralnetworks). From the ANN output, values less than or equal to 0.5 were considered to correspond to no water, and those more than 0.5 to water (Capacci and Conway 2005). ANNs make no assumptions regarding the underlying frequency distribution of the data being classified. This attribute is particularly important at large scales because hydrology typically has a multimodal frequency distribution and therefore violates assumptions required by traditional supervised approaches such as maximum likelihood classification. An excellent example of this property is illustrated by systems such as wetlands, which are sensitive to the amount and timing of precipitation (Goward and Prince 1995). This sensitivity leads to distinct spectral–temporal patterns (subclasses) within each hydrological class (Friedl et al. 2002). A total of 6740 non-tidal wetlands were submitted to the ANN models to investigate whether water could be detected between 2000 and 2011 using MODIS satellite imagery. A wetland was considered to have water present where one or more pixel within the wetland boundary (including the buffer) was estimated to be wet by the model (≥ 50% probability that the reflectance signature was water). 6 Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Technical Report Series No. 228 Assessing the hydrology of Victorian wetlands using remotely sensed imagery: a pilot study 2.4 Hydrological classification used for this study Four categories are used to classify the water regime of wetlands in the new Victorian wetland classification framework: one permanent category and three non-permanent (seasonal, intermittent and episodic) (Table 2). The frequency of inundation descriptions formed the basis of the queries used to characterise water regime (Table 3). The number of seasons and years in which the wetlands were indicated by MODIS as having water present provided information on whether they were permanently, seasonally, intermittently or episodically inundated, based on the criteria described in Table 2. Table 2 Water regime categories with their descriptions for each water regime component to be used in the classification framework and 2012 wetland inventory (DSE in prep.). Category Frequency of inundation Duration of inundation Permanent Constant, annual or less frequently but before wetland dries Almost never dries (holds water >8 years in every 10), but levels may fluctuate within or between years Seasonal Annual or near annual inundation 1–8 months, then dries (8-10 years in every 10) Intermittent Fills 3–7 years in every 10 >1 month to more than 1 year, then dries Episodic Fills less than 3 years in every 10 >1 month to more than 1 year, then dries Table 3 Queries used to categorise the water regime for this study. Category Criteria Permanent Wetlands that held water in every season for at least 80 % of the years for which data was acquired Seasonal Wetlands that held water for less than four seasons per year but for more than 80% of the years for which data was acquired Intermittent Wetlands that held water for 30 % to 70 % of the years for which data was acquired Episodic Wetlands that held water for only 10 % to 30 % of the years for which data was acquired 2.5 Reasons for the failure to detect water The failure of MODIS to detect water was likely to be caused by one or more of the following: the wetland being legitimately dry the wetland being covered by vegetation (emergent or canopy) the presence of islands in the wetland that were large relative to the size of the wetland the limitations of the training data (see section 4.1). Training data limitations led to large, deep, permanent water bodies being assessed merely as wetted areas in the training data. The Native Vegetation Extent layer, NV2005_EXTENT (DSE 2009) was used to identify wetlands that were surrounded or covered by woody vegetation canopy. The Wetlands 1994 Inventory was used to identify shallow marshes and meadows which were likely to have emergent vegetation cover (Table 5). Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Technical Report Series No. 228 7 Assessing the hydrology of Victorian wetlands using remotely sensed imagery: a pilot study 2.6 Validation and confidence Field data collected for 485 wetlands between October 2010 and April 2011 for the state-wide Index of Wetland Condition assessment (DSE 2012) were used to test the validity and confidence of the method. Seventy-one wetlands larger than 6 ha were found to contain some water during these assessments and were used to validate the MODIS predictions of water presence. A confidence rating for the MODIS water regime, and reasons for the failure to detect water by MODIS (sources of error) were determined using the following rules: Assignment of confidence to regime: If the IWC assessment of the inundation phase matched the detection of water by MODIS, confidence in the MODIS prediction was considered to be high. If the IWC assessment did not match the detection of water by MODIS, confidence in the MODIS prediction was considered to be low. Assignment of confidence to reasons for water not being detected: If MODIS did not detect water and native vegetation extent spatial data indicated native tree cover, confidence that MODIS could not detect water because of the presence of canopy cover was considered to be high because the native vegetation spatial data has been rigorously checked and validated. Confidence that MODIS could not detect water because of the presence of emergent vegetation at wetlands associated with the Corrick categories of freshwater meadow or shallow freshwater marsh was considered to be low because the presence of emergent vegetation in wetlands of these categories was not validated. 8 Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Technical Report Series No. 228 Assessing the hydrology of Victorian wetlands using remotely sensed imagery: a pilot study 3 Results 3.1 Water regime categories MODIS detected water at 1204 of the 6740 wetlands greater than six hectares on at least one of the 44 sampling periods. Of those for which water was detected, 473 were classified as episodic, 376 as seasonal, 264 as intermittent and 91 as permanent. A source of error leading to MODIS failing to detect water when it may have been present was allocated to 99% of wetlands in the Wetland 1994 inventory (Table 4). Wetlands larger than 6 ha for which the models showed that water was present at some stage during assessment period were assumed to be legitimately dry when the model showed no water was detected. Table 4 Reason for failure to detect water (where dry conditions would have been predicted even if a wetland was inundated) and number of wetlands where this was the likely source of error. Reason for failure Number of wetlands Emergent vegetation 3168 Canopy cover 2168 Island within wetland 37 Intertidal wetland* 4 Unknown/dry 159 Total 5536 *Most intertidal wetlands were removed from the Wetland 1994 dataset submitted for MODIS analysis, however a small fraction were not detected during the initial filtering of this wetland type. 45 All w etlands (n = 16775) 40 Wetlands submitted (n = 6740) Wetlands w ater detected (n = 1204) Percentage of wetlands (%) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Open w ater Deep freshw ater marsh Freshw ater meadow Shallow freshw ater marsh Permanent saline Semipermanent saline Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Technical Report Series No. 228 9 Assessing the hydrology of Victorian wetlands using remotely sensed imagery: a pilot study Figure 2 Proportion of wetlands in each Corrick category in the wetland inventory, proportion of wetlands submitted to the ANN and proportion of wetlands where MODIS detected water. The distribution of wetlands among Corrick wetland categories (see Table 1 on page 3) where MODIS detected water were compared with the distribution of all wetlands in the Wetland 1994 inventory and wetlands submitted to the MODIS analysis (Figure 2). Water was detected in a smaller proportion of freshwater meadow and shallow freshwater marsh categories, when compared to all other categories. 3.2 Validation: model discrimination and reliability We quantified the ability to correctly classify training locations (‘discrimination’ or ‘accuracy’) as well as the agreement between the predicted probabilities of water in new sites not used in training and the actual occurrence of water (‘reliability’). The confusion matrix, a standard output of ANN modelling, indicated that the ANN correctly classified dryland and inundated areas provided as training data more than 99% of the time. This is a very high level of discrimination. Of the 485 wetlands assessed for the IWC between October 2010 and April 2011, 71 were selected to use in the validation because they had valid wetland identification numbers, were georeferenced, and were assessed during the period for which we had MODIS data for wetlands. Of these 71 wetlands, 24% were assessed by the IWC as full, 46% with water present and receding, 17% with water present and filling and 13% with no water. The ANN correctly assessed the presence or absence of water at 32% of these wetlands. Time constraints precluded the collation and of use ancillary data to characterise hydrology where MODIS was unable to detect water. 4 Discussion The use of multi-temporal MODIS images allowed simple, rapid classifications of water regime to be developed on the basis of seasonal changes in water regime for wetlands larger than 6 ha with no vegetation cover. The technique is conceptually simple, and the classes can be related directly to empirical observations of the presence of water. By using multiple images that captured averaged seasons, information on seasonal variability could be obtained. This is very valuable for Victorian wetlands, many of which fill intermittently. However, most of Victoria’s wetlands (about 60%) were too small for the minimum resolution of the MODIS imagery, and about 32% could contain emergent vegetation or canopy cover that is likely to obscure the MODIS signal. One of the major sources of error in the correct detection of wetlands that contained water was the limitation of the training data. Due to time constraints and the provisional nature of the data-mining software available at the time of the study, only yearly average images could be used. Also, the model was trained to distinguish between terrestrial zones and open water rather than wetting and drying within wetlands. These constraints meant the reliability of estimates was low. Despite these constraints, water regime category was attributed to 1204 of the 16775 wetlands in the Wetland 1994 inventor. It is envisaged this result will be greatly improved, with recent improvements to the data mining software that enable us to select training data within wetlands over time. The high number of wetlands for which water was not detected may have been also been caused by many shallow wetlands being dry throughout the modelled period. The remotely sensed data used in this study were collected in a period characterised by drought, and wetlands may have been assigned to categories that reflect these dry conditions. For example, wetlands classified as 10 Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Technical Report Series No. 228 Assessing the hydrology of Victorian wetlands using remotely sensed imagery: a pilot study permanent (e.g. within the Corrick system) during decades with average rainfall may be classified as seasonal in this study, and wetlands that are normally seasonal may have filled episodically. This highlights the need to revisit this work regularly (as the data sequence lengthens) to develop a better understanding of wetland hydrology during periods of average and above-average rainfall as well as during drought conditions. An approach that should increase the reliability of estimating wetland hydrology is outlined below. In the current project static yearly average base maps were used, and samples taken inside inundated wetlands were labelled ‘wet’ and samples taken in dry land were labelled ‘dry’. Since the completion of the study, improvements in the data-mining software have enabled the temporal training data selected to estimate the wet and dry cycle within a wetland and achieve a dynamic training dataset where signatures of inundated and dry wetlands could be more accurately captured. Other methods such as subpixel analyses and spatial generalisation can also be used to include wetlands that were not captured in this project. This approach is outlined in the following steps. Step 1 Refine ANN models to detect water in a greater proportion of genuine wetlands. Limit ANN training data involving ‘wet’ pixels to genuine wetlands by using base maps from recent flood events in which inundation of all wetlands is certain. Because training data for dry sites in this study were obtained from outside wetlands, limit training data involving ‘dry’ pixels to wetlands which are known to be dry during dry periods. Training data may also be derived from other remotely sensed base maps where appropriate, to crossvalidate training before presenting data to the ANN. Step 2 Investigate whether a subpixel analysis of MODIS data can detect water in unvegetated wetlands smaller than 6 ha. Step 3 Use spatial generalisation techniques to determine whether the frequency and duration of filling of neighbouring wetlands (that have been attributed with a water regime) is similar. Synchronous inundation between neighbouring wetlands is likely to be related to the distance between them (i.e. distance from known inundated wetland) and whether they are similar in size, wetland type (Corrick), landscape context, water source or climate. If these factors are able to give accurate estimations of synchronous inundation, we can apply the relationships to predict inundation for other wetlands. An extrapolation of this relationship could be used to predict the inundation of other wetlands. Step 4 If no relationship between these factors and synchronous wetland inundation can be detected, one or more of the following additional steps need to be taken: Explore the use of variables other than those considered in Step 3. Limit the model to a particular region (e.g. a bioregion or climate zone). Use hydrological surface water (rainfall–runoff) and groundwater models to predict the water regime. Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Technical Report Series No. 228 11 Assessing the hydrology of Victorian wetlands using remotely sensed imagery: a pilot study Use other higher spatial resolution remotely sensed data (e.g. data from Landsat, Rapid Eye, Spot) in conjunction with MODIS to improve the training data. 12 Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Technical Report Series No. 228 Assessing the hydrology of Victorian wetlands using remotely sensed imagery: a pilot study 5 References Bedford, B.L. 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Hydrobiologia 81–2(1): 233–259. Williams, W.D. (1992). The biological status of Lake Corangamite and other lakes in western Victoria. Department of Zoology, University of Adelaide. 14 Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Technical Report Series No. 228 Assessing the hydrology of Victorian wetlands using remotely sensed imagery: a pilot study Appendix: Features of MODIS data relevant to wetlands Remote sensing uses measurements of the electromagnetic radiation, usually sunlight or solar radiation reflected in various bands, to characterise the landscape, infer surface properties, or in some cases actually estimate hydrologic state variables. Sensors measure reflected solar radiation (visible and short wave infrared) which can be related to land-cover, extent of surface imperviousness and albedo (Johnston and Barson 1993). MODIS terrestrial delivers reflectance data in 7 bands Band 1 (red) 630-690 nm (250-metre) Band 2 (NIR) 780-900 nm (250-metre) Band 3 (blue) 450-520 nm (500-metre) Band 4 (green) 530-610 nm (500-metre) Band 5 (NIR) 1230 - 1250 nm (500-metre) Band 6 (Mid IR) 1550-1750 nm (500-metre) Band 7 (Mid IR) 2090-2350 nm (500-metre) A summary of the bands and their relevance to wetlands is provided by (Johnston and Barson 1993): Visible blue — provides information on water depth and turbidity. Blue light penetrates clear water to depths of 50 m (Drury 1990 in (Johnston and Barson 1993), so reflectance is a function of water depth, substrate brightness and turbidity. This allows reflectance in the blue band to be used for mapping water depth in clear, shallow water (Jupp et al. 1985 in (Johnston and Barson 1993) or for assessing suspended-solid loads in turbid waters (Blake and Bainbridge 1990 in (Johnston and Barson 1993). Visible red — provides information on soil colour (Wright and Birnie 1986 In (Johnston and Barson 1993) and calculation of a vegetation index (see below). Near infrared (NIR) — provides information on plant condition as it is strongly reflected by photosynthetically active plants (Tucker and Sellers 1986 in (Johnston and Barson 1993). Medium infrared (MIR) — strongly absorbed by water, so that MIR response is very low from inundated areas or areas of high soil moisture. Visible red — provides information on soil colour (Wright and Birnie 1986 in (Johnston and Barson 1993) and comprises the vegetation index (see below). There is little penetration of water by NIR and the NIR: visible red ratio (vegetation index VI), which represents dominantly emergent and floating vegetation in waterbodies. Submerged vegetation may have some influence on the visible blue reflectance, depending on the depth and clarity of the water (Johnston and Barson 1993). Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Technical Report Series No. 228 15 Assessing the hydrology of Victorian wetlands using remotely sensed imagery: a pilot study ISSN 1835-3827 (print) ISSN 1835-3835 (online) ISBN 978-1-74287-471-5 (print) ISBN 978-1-74287-472-2 (online) 16 Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Technical Report Series No. 228