SBA GRANT – FINAL REPORT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY SECTION ONE CONTEXTS Chapter I Small Businesses, Process Innovations, and Spatial Solutions 1. SMEs 2. Ease of Doing Business: A Global Perspective 3. SME Survival Rates 4. Competitive Business Environments 5. Process Innovation 6. Spatial Thinking 7. Spatial Technology 8. Other Considerations 9. Modeling Relationships 10. Assessing Results Chapter II Geographic Information Systems (GIS): Concepts and Tutorials 1. A Brief History 2. Basic Terminology 3. Literature Review: GIS and Business Marketing 4. Literature Review: GIS and Business Logistics 5. Literature Review: GIS and Business Strategy 6. Spatial Data: Sources and Complications 7. Commercial GIS Software: ArcGIS 8. Open-Source GIS: A Sampler of GIS Programs 9. Open-Source GIS: Statistical Computing Programs 10. Web-Based GIS: The Present and the Future Chapter III [ArcGIS] [MapWindows] [GeoDa, R] [Google] The Inland Empire: A Spatial Definition 1 SECTION TWO CASE STUDIES Chapter IV Case Study A: Training the Trainers at CHARO Chapter V Case Study B: ABC Blinds Chapter VI Case Study C: Bodas Hispanic Bridal Magazine Chapter VII Case Study D: An Application of “Community Tapestry” Chapter VIII Case Study E: Dynamic Analysis of Housing and Mortgage Markets Chapter IX Case Study F: Real-Time Data for Property Appraisal SECTION THREE FOOTPRINTS Chapter X Diffusion of Knowledge 1. Workshops, Templates, Presentations, Conferences 2. The Redlands Business GIS Vortal Chapter XI Sustainability of Efforts 1. The Redlands Relative Advantage Global Atlas 2. The Redlands Inland Empire Business Atlas Chapter XII Future Directions 2 SBA GRANT – FINAL REPORT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY SECTION ONE CONTEXTS Chapter I Small Businesses, Process Innovations, and Spatial Solutions JP Chapter II Geographic Information Systems (GIS): Concepts and Tutorials rg Chapter III The Inland Empire: A Spatial Definition rg SECTION TWO CASE STUDIES Chapter IV Case Study A: Training the Trainers at CHARO rg Chapter V Case Study B: ABC Blinds jp Chapter VI Case Study C: Bodas Hispanic Bridal Magazine rg Chapter VII Case Study D: An Application of “Community Tapestry” as Chapter VIII Case Study E: Dynamic Analysis of Housing and Mortgage Markets jm Chapter IX Case Study F: Real-Time Data for Property Appraisal jp SECTION THREE FOOTPRINTS Chapter X Diffusion of Knowledge and JP,rg,rama Chapter XI Sustainability of Efforts ri,jm,JP Chapter XII Future Directions jp 3 SBA Final Report 0. Overview and Summary DRAFT OUTLINE 4. The Inland Empire - Definition 1. Contexts for Appraising SME Success - Demographics - Global - Spatial Autocorrelations - Growth Patterns, SME Opportunities Doing Business in … Relative Advantage in Trade - National, State, Local Regions Survival Indices Competitiveness Indices Statistical Associations MAUP and Ecological Fallacy 2. Define and Explaining SME Success - SME Access to Capital 5. GIS for SMEs Case Studies Selection Implementation (see Appendices) Assessment - Response Measure: Survival Vignettes - Primary Predictor: Process Innovation - Statistical Controls: Age, Environment, etc. Stimulus Studies Global Relative Advantage Faculty Research 3. GIS as a Process Innovation - What is a Process Innovation? 6. GIS for SMEs: Diffusion of Knowledge - What is GIS? - Workshops - GIS Technology and Resources - Presentations - Spatial Solutions to Bus. Problems - Conferences Academic Literature Best Practices Focus on SMEs - Templates - Web Vertical Portal 7. Conclusions and Recommendations . 8. Appendices 4 DRAFT OUTLINE SBA Final Report 0. Overview and Summary PLATT This grant has examined the state of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), and has considered the potential for spatial approaches to refining business models and positively influencing business operations and SME success. Although study focus is the Inland Empire region of Southern California, results and outcomes help inform SMEs everywhere. 1. Contexts for Appraising SME Success Global - Doing Business in … PLATT The “Doing Business” project (The World Bank, Doing Business 2009, International Finance Corporation) provides objective measures of business regulations and their enforcement across 181 economies. Analysis of this data indicates relative strengths and weaknesses of the U.S. climate for SMEs, and provides evidence of global spatial autocorrelation patterns. Survey instruments are used to ascertain the extent to which perceptions of small business owners in the Inland Empire reinforce these measures. - Relative Advantage in Trade MOENIUS “Many, if not most, SMEs are subject to the impacts of globalization” (Winch & Bianchi, Journal of Small Business and Enterprise Development, Dec. 2006; 13, 1, p.73). Utilizing a comprehensive database of trade data involving about 3,000 industries, 200 economies and nearly 50 years, we examine SME relative advantages and competitive pressures. Again, there is evidence of global spatial autocorrelation patterns. National, State, Local Regions - Survival Indices PLATT An aggregate measure of SME Risk-to-Survival is the ratio of business births to the sum of business terminations and bankruptcies. For the United States, the overall ratio is 1.15, indicating a 15% annual net growth in new businesses. However, for California the ratio is 0.78, ranking 44th among the 50 States. What are the contributing factors to this ratio? 5 - Competitiveness Indices PLATT The Kauffman Foundation provides benchmark rankings of technological innovation and resultant economic transformation of the 50 States. According to their “2007 State New Economy Index”, California ranks 5th among the 50 States. There is evidence of spatial autocorrelation among regions of the United States. - Statistical Associations PLATT Is there a statistical association between SME risk-to-survival rates and competitiveness indices, or between survival rates and various measures of socio-economic well-being? - MAUP and Ecological Fallacy PLATT A phenomenon known as the “modifiable areal unit problem” suggests that the strength of observed statistical associations may vary by unit of analysis. Do measures of statistical association with survival rate differ when measured at the State vs. county level? 2. Define and Explaining SME Success - Response Measure: Survival PLATT It is evident that the first and primary objective of SMEs is business survival. The rates of survival are depressingly constant across sectors, but vary across regions. As the 2007 edition of the “Small Business Survival Index” states, public policies often raise costs and diminish incentives for starting, investing, or building small businesses. The report ranks the States on each of 31 costs impacting small businesses. In aggregate, California ranks 49th of the 50 States. There is evidence of spatial autocorrelation among regions of the United States. Survey instruments here ascertain the extent to which small business owner perceptions in the Inland Empire mirror these relative rankings. - Primary Predictor: Process Innovation PLATT An empirical analysis of more than 3,000 SME failures indicates that small firms that innovate have on average an 11% higher survival rate than those without innovations; furthermore, process innovations contribute more to survival than do product innovations. - Statistical Controls: Age, Environment, etc. PLATT Survival rates also vary by age and size of the firm. Do these associations also exhibit spatial autocorrelaton, and do they also vary by level of aggregation for measurement? 6 3. GIS as a Process Innovation - What is a Process Innovation? PLATT Process innovation can be defined as new elements introduced into an organization’s production or service operations in an attempt to increase effectiveness or efficiency. Multiple sources of process innovation and resultant impacts are reviewed here. - What is GIS? GREENE A geographical information system (GIS) can be defined as an organized means of capturing, storing, manipulating, analyzing and displaying layer of spatial data. It is suggested here that GIS can be a process innovation for organizations, including SMEs. - GIS Technology and Resources GREENE A taxonomy of GIS technology is presented, surveying both commercial and freeware solutions, as well as both stand-alone and web-server solutions. Guidelines are developed for mapping GIS process innovation technology to specific SME needs. - Spatial Solutions to Business Problems GREENE GIS is a process innovation that can have positive impacts upon business performance measures, which correspondingly improves survival probability. GIS process innovation can be at the enterprise level, or can be specific to critical functional areas of the business. - Academic Literature MOENIUS – PERRY - SARKAR Academic research can enrich the knowledge in this field by utilizing methodologies, concepts, and theories from business, management, and other disciplines to apply to GIS in business. A study has shown that academic research publications on GIS have been sparse in the business sub-discipline of information systems (Huerta, Navarrete, and Ryan, 2005) and the same situation extends to other business areas. Here faculty reviews existing academic literature regarding GIS in marketing, logistics and strategy. - Best Practices MOENIUS – PERRY - SARKAR In addition to a faculty review existing academic literature regarding GIS in marketing, logistics and strategy, there are many examples of successful applications of GIS to real business problems. A sampling of these experiences are presented, relying heavily upon the documented case studies at the ESRI website and presented in their publications. - Focus on SMEs GREENE Most academic literature and best practices have been applicable to, or involved, large corporations. It is suggested that many similar benefits, and others, can accrue to SMEs. 7 4. The Inland Empire - Definition GREENE This grant defines the Inland Empire as a quantitative entity, rather they simply as Riverside and San Bernardino Counties. It takes an economic approach based upon location quotients by first defining job centers within the two counties, then eliminating virtually empty areas by selecting a 10 percent commuting flow contour to job centers. - Demographics GREENE “Inland Empire”, as defined by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, is that Metropolitan Statistical Area notated as “Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario (CA). With just over four million inhabitants, compared to 1.5 million in 1980, today it is the 14th largest metropolitan area in the U.S., and has been the fastest-growing in California. What is the ethnic and linguistic composition of this population, and how does it vary over space? - Spatial Autocorrelations PLATT Neighborhoods and businesses arrange by spatial pattern, and detection of such patterns can provide insights to housing prices, unemployment rates, or demand for public schools. Here the “Community Tapestry” segmentation system, which identifies 65 community segments, 12 “LifeMode” summary groups, and 11 “Urbanization” summary groups, is applied to examine spatial autocorrelation patterns at the zip-code level. - Growth Patterns, SME Opportunities PLATT The population base of Southern California has shifted over time, with growth primarily inland from the coastline. This shift has not been evenly distributed, over space, over time, across ethnicities, or across industries. We catalog and map the flow of people and businesses into and across the Inland Empire. Examination of the alignments of people relative to jobs suggests opportunities for growth in employment through new business. - SME Access to Capital PLATT The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System recently (October 2007) submitted its “Report to the Congress on the Availability of Credit to Small Businesses”. It states that small firms (compared to larger corporations) have more difficulty gaining access to credit sources, are considered riskier, and are much more affected by swings in the economy – and that these influences vary by region and local economy. Here is an assessment of how such patterns in the Inland Empire support or diverge from national and regional patterns identified in the Report. 8 5. GIS for SMEs Case Studies - Selection PLATT There are tens of thousands of SMEs scattered throughout the Inland Empire. This grant could only conduct a small set of case studies, so it was important to sample from a broad cross-section – but select on what basis? After much consideration, it was decided to sample cells from a two-dimension grid: the first dimension is stage in the life cycle of the firm (Start-up, Growth, Mature, Stable); the second dimension is placement within the firm value chain (Inbound Logistics [including Site Location], Operations, Outbound Logistics, Sales and Services). To the extent practical, consideration also was given to variations in size, sector, etc. - Implementation (see Appendices) Case 1: ABC Blinds GREENE PICK This mature retail firm has been doing business for 28 years, and now faces new challenges due to explosive population growth in High Desert. GIS proved highly effective in providing insights for a mature firm seeking both growth and efficiency. Case 2: Above-the-Limit RAMA Focusing on providing technological solutions to the “digital divide”, this entrepreneurial group of engineers develops low-cost web-related products. Although sophisticated in the use of technology, the firm changed its focus several times during the study period and never settled on a clear business plan; as a result, GIS was not an effective tool at this stage in the evolution of this organization. Case 3: CHARO GREENE A not-for-profit organization serving as a Department of Commerce Minority Business Enterprise Center, CHARO provides loan package and related support to nearly 100 SMEs. This association provided the opportunity to develop and test GIS templates. Case 4: Bridal Magazine SARKAR Bodas USA La Revista is a start-up business founded by a journalist who perceived demand for a Spanish-language bridal magazine. She entered into a contract with a major bookstore chain to distribute the magazine, and GIS was used to target outlets. Case 5: Property Appraisers PICK Jacobs Appraisal and Affiliates is a small real estate appraisal group that provides raw land, residential, and commercial appraisals, as well as litigation and consulting services. The group, has conducted its mapping work manually or by consolidating disparate web- 9 based maps from government services, rather than using GIS. Case 6: Dance Apparel GREENE A current student in the MBA program at the University of Redlands enrolled in the program for one reason: to prepare himself to create a small business that builds upon specialty skills and knowledge of his wife. The student believes that GIS can guide initial business planning, and has requested assistance through the grant. Case 7: GIS for Small School Performance PLATT Public schools share many characteristics with other small and medium-sized enterprises, and therefore may be able to benefit from GIS. In particular, spatial analysis of the distribution of performance measures is shown to provide a useful guide to school resource allocation. It also provides a substantive response to recent state legislation mandating school utilization of data analyses based on academic performance indicators. Case 8: Inland Empire Mortgage Market SARKAR The Inland Empire has been particularly impacted by the sub-prime mortgage crisis, and its housing default rates are among the highest in the nation. Spatial analysis of mortgage loan and repayment patterns can guide decisions by loan officers, brokers, and realtors; of course, such guidelines must conform to laws against discrimination through redlining. Vignette 1: Textiles ZHAO Since the Multi-Fiber Agreement expired on January 1st 2005, radical changes in the international competitiveness in textiles have been observed. This vignette demonstrates how competitive pressures changed for textile firms in the US, and provides guidance for a local firm with a focus on women's dresses, suits and skirts. Vignette 2: Telecommunications PLATT Outsourcing parts in telecommunication: This vignette illustrates how global trade data can support the search for joint venture partners for a small local company that produces intelligent parts for the telecommunication industry. Vignette 3: Insecticides MOENIUS A local firm has a patent pending on a systemic insecticide almost 40% more effective than current products, but at the same time with a much faster decay time. Now that the credit crunch has hit, their investor has suddenly gotten cold feet and the bank has reduced their line of credit. What should they do? Using a global trade GIS database, they select the optimal international production location for their target market, produce insecticide there, and sell it into the most attractive market in terms of insecticide importers / vegetable exporters. 10 - Assessment PLATT Finance literature and practice provide accepted guidelines for ex ante valuation of capital investment opportunities. For small firms, there are at least three impediments to successful implementation: (i) Choice of an appropriate discount rate; (ii) Identification and measurement of expected net cash flows, and (iii) Recognition of embedded real options. Through this grant methods and measures of each are developed and demonstrated within the context of considering adoption of a geographic information system (GIS) as a capital investment. Concept Studies - Global Relative Advantage MOENIUS In “Small Firms, Global Markets”, a recent book edited by J. Haar, the case is made that small businesses are no more immune to global competition than are large corporations, and for many small businesses advances in technology provide untapped global market opportunities. A comprehensive global trade database, comprising thousands of industries in hundreds of economic states over decades of experience, has been geocoded for easy visual extraction of meaningful cross-sections of relative trade advantage. Stimulus Studies - Faculty Research PICK GIS and spatial thinking is not in evidence at most business schools. If that were to change, it is likely that GIS awareness, technology and applications would increase dramatically, to the benefit of small businesses. Because the corporate leader in GIS technology is headquartered in the City of Redlands, because the University of Redlands already has a GIS focus, and because the School of Business is an interdisciplinary unit without functional departments, grant funds have been used to induce and support faculty research through a competitive award system. Summaries of these diverse studies are presented here; full details are available from cited sources, and at the web portal. 11 6. GIS for SMEs: Diffusion of Knowledge - Workshops PLATT A series of tutorial workshops were held throughout the grant period, at University of Redlands locations on the main campus and in Ontario, Temecula, and Riverside, at the Ontario Conference Center during an SBA conference, and at SBA Regional offices in New England. Each workshop introduced GIS and its potential usefulness in providing spatial solutions to business problems, demonstrated how GIS could be incorporated into business planning, offered introductory tutorials on GIS software, and concluded with a specialty focus on GIS for marketing, logistics, or strategy. - Presentations PLATT Faculty has made presentations at regional, national, and international conferences, disseminating knowledge gained from this grant. A brief synopsis of the presentations is provided; full details are available from cited sources, and at the web portal. - Conferences PERRY In summer of 2007, the University of Redlands School of Business commenced to organize an academic conference of university experts in GIS and spatial technologies for business. This conference was merged in winter of 2008 with the ESRI Business GIS Summit, with the combined conference being held in Chicago, Illinois, April 27-30, 2008. ESRI Inc. has been a partner on the academic conference and supportive of the academic program. The combined conference has the advantages of a combined audience of business leaders and managers and academic experts and those with interest in learning about GIS. The blending and interacting of viewpoints and perspectives of academic thought and the real world applications and strategies are highly beneficial but too rarely achieved. Following the success of the original joint venture, a second Business GIS Summit is scheduled for May 4-6, 2009 in Denver CO. - Templates GREENE One of the many benefits of the association with CHARO has been the opportunity to work with them in developing a set of generic templates for GIS applications in small businesses. The specific templates that have been developed are: Geo-coding, from spreadsheets to spatial databases, using MapQuest and ArcGIS; Geo-demographics, from points to maps; Map and Report Generation, quality maps for clients; Site Location Analysis, a gravity model based on grant literature review; Distribution and Logistic Analysis, based on grant literature review; Targeted Marketing Analysis, based on grant literature review; Strategic Business Analysis, based on grant literature review; and Web Mesh-ups, using Google. - Web Vertical Portal RAMA To assure that efforts from this grant have a meaningful and sustainable impact that extends beyond the individual firms that participated in case studies, beyond the Inland 12 Empire, and beyond the limited time frame, it is essential that a comprehensive vertical web portal (vortal) be developed and maintained. The vortal provides complete documentation of all grant activities and products, provides links to other spatial and GIS-related resources of interest to small businesses, and is easily accessible. 7. Conclusions and Recommendations PLATT Is spatial analysis and the usage of GIS a process innovation? If so, can it increase the success of SMEs, as measured directly by survival rates or indirectly by other proxy indicators? How can we tell, in the process demonstrating that net benefits exceed net costs? Under what circumstances is GIS most likely to provide net benefits? Can standardized templates provide value to SMEs? Where can SME personnel turn for more information on spatial solutions to business problems? 8. Appendices Case 1: ABC Blinds PICK Case 2: Above-the-Limit RAMA Case 3: CHARO GREENE Case 4: Bridal Magazine SARKAR Case 5: Property Appraisers PICK Case 6: Dance Apparel GREENE Case 7: GIS for Small School Performance PLATT Case 8: Inland Empire Mortgage Market SARKAR Vignette 1: Textiles ZHAO Vignette 2: Telecommunications PLATT Vignette 3: Insecticides MOENIUS 13