The challenges for water
security arising from global and
climate change
Roland Schulze
University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
Interview with Dr. Marian Patrick
23 October 2012
Marian: For the International Conference on
coal. In this area we are dealing with some
Fresh Water Governance for Sustainable
highly complex hydrology and the impacts of
Development
in
this type of landuse on the water sector and on
November 2012; you presented on The
downstream activities is a major challenge
Challenges for Water Security Arising from
when it comes to water security because these
Global and Climate Change, in a Special
big water uses are likely to place significant
Session on Sustainable Pathways. Please
strain on water resources in this semi-arid
would you share with our readers the key
region. In the Waterberg rainfall is only about
learning points from your presentation?
400–500mm
held
in
South
Africa
per
year,
while
potential
evaporation is around 2500mm. As a result,
Roland: When I look at the challenge of water
this type of development cannot sustain itself
security from a global perspective it includes
from water generated in the local area so it
issues of climate change, country development,
has to be imported, in this case primarily
water development and landuse change.
clean waste water from Johannesburg. These
In South Africa there are some major new
developments happening with respect to these
issues. For example, in the northern parts of
South Africa – in the Waterberg area – there
are major coal fields now being exploited for
energy and possibly extracting petrol from
major developments also bring with them
substantial further repercussions such as the
formation of new towns. At present the area is
bush, however within 15 years a town with
35000 people is envisaged. This creates
further challenges when it comes to water
The challenges for water security arising from global and climate change
security from a landuse and development
For me the most important findings and ones
perspective.
that challenge us in water security are what I
call the secondary effects of climate change.
Another area where major development is
For example the effect of climate change on
underway is the South-Western Cape in a
water temperature. Water temperature not
catchment called the Olifants Catchment. This
only influences fish distribution and dissolved
area is highly dependent on irrigation and
oxygen content but an increase in water
already water resources have been over
temperature also brings with it health hazards
allocated. With a further reduction in rainfall
- cholera, bilharzia, malaria – these are all
projected by virtually all climate models of the
water temperature related diseases and these
region, climate change is likely to bring an
secondary effects are the ones that become
added stress to an area that is highly
primary challenges. Another one would be the
dependent on irrigated agriculture.
effect of climate change on irrigation practices,
So that would be to me a global and landuse
type of issue that we need to look at in terms
of water security – what do you do? Do you
de-allocate water? Do you become more
efficient? Do you change from a highly
dependent irrigated agriculture to another
type
of
economic
activity?
These
are
challenges – they all revolve around water.
with over irrigation for example the fertilisers
leach out dissolved nitrogen and with climate
change these issues have environmental
repercussions downstream. A further effect
that we are finding from our studies of climate
change - very important in terms of water
security – is a projected increase in extremes:
extreme rainfalls - the design rainfalls that
engineers use for the design of stormwater
But now to the main issue – which is looking
drains, spillways and dams, and particularly
at the entire climate change scenario over
the amplification of any change in rainfall into
South Africa in a detailed spatial manner.
a change in runoff – so a slight increase or
What we have found in some major studies is
decrease in rainfall becomes a major increase
that some areas will be winners and some
or decrease in runoff and particularly so when
areas will be losers – for the winners new
you look at extremes.
opportunities
and
for
the
losers
new
challenges; climate change does not play out
evenly in a country such as South Africa nor
Australia.
A forth issue, related in a way to extremes, is a
projected increase over most of the country in
the year to year variability of rainfall and with
The challenges for water security arising from global and climate change
that the year to year variability of runoff.
huge dis-functionality of infrastructure which
These are important issues in semi-arid
to me is a governance issue. We simply do not
countries where food security is dependent on
have the people to look after the infrastructure
water, as well as for urban and industrial areas.
– we have half the number of civil engineers
Irrigation, which is the major water user in
looking after water in the cities than we had
South Africa at the moment, uses about 60%
20 years ago and we seem to be going in a
of the stored water - this will be impacted by
mode of construct and neglect – the ethos of
variability. These are the issues of water
maintenance is simply not as it should be
security. And then one of the forgotten
and that to me becomes a major governance
elements of all this are the environmental
issue.
-
issues – we have a very strong water law in
South Africa – it promotes environmental
The second is Capacity
flows and we haven’t really given any serious
Africa very first world and progressive water
thought of potential impacts of climate change
laws, a national water resource strategy, the
on environmental flows, on the baseline flows
already present and future skills gap in regard
- we cannot even operate these things at the
to governance may make our governance of
moment and climate change is going to make
water even more challenging then it is today.
the
We have a high turnover of staff, we have
whole
water
security
issue
more
- we have in South
many excellent people but often they work in
exacerbated and more extreme.
silos of excellence instead of centres of
Marian: Roland would you describe the links
excellence and when that silo falls over, the
between these water security challenges and
excellence falls over. That to me is an issue of
how they impact on or are influenced by
governance and capacity.
governance and sustainable development
And the third is Governance and History – in
issues?
terms of water, being semi-arid South Africa
Roland: I can do that under three headings.
used to be very supply driven in its water
The
to
management, very engineering orientated –
decaying
and with good reason, being semi-arid we
infrastructure, we have waste-water treatment
needed big dams and interbasin transfers.
works that are not working despite the fact
However our issues now need to become more
that we have certification for drinking water
water demand driven and we need to look at
and certification for waste-water. We have this
the
first is Governance
Infrastructure.
We
in regard
have
subtleties
of
water
conservation
The challenges for water security arising from global and climate change
management,
sustainable
management,
a lack of scientific background - but the
management of the ecological reserve – these
willingness is there. Climate change is a big
are the challenges of governance and I truly
issue in the press so I think people has become
believe we are reaching an era where we are
sensitized to climate change but whether they
moving away from the engineering dominated
are doing anything that is really going to
water supply to a more environmentally
mitigate it is a different story. People are in
dominated demand driven water management
their comfort zone and we have a country
and this is not easy and brings with it major
where 90% of the people are poor and these
challenges. On paper we look very good, in
poor people care about tomorrow and next
practice things are challenging.
week, they don’t care about the next century their timelines are short because they live
Marian: Do you think people feel powerless
hand to mouth and that is a characteristic of
to tackle a global environmental issue like
poor people. So we have this dichotomy of
climate change?
great consciousness of climate change by the
Roland: I don’t believe so, people have been
made very conscious of climate change,
government is very conscious of climate
change – there has been major ministerial
buy-into the concept of climate change from
the
President’s
Office,
through
various
technical departments such as Environmental
Affairs, Water Affairs and Agricultural Affairs
minority of the ‘haves’, but the ‘have nots’
have to literally live from hand to mouth and
poverty seems to be getting more rather than
less.
Marian:
Roland
are
there
any
other
initiatives or topics emerging from the
southern Africa region you would like to
share with our readers?
– so the buy-in by government is there. The
buy-in by the scientists is generally also there
Roland: From a perspective of government we
- there are a few sceptics, but one has a few
have a newly revised National Climate Change
sceptics everywhere. And the buy-in by the
Research Strategy which by and large is very
press and big business is very encouraging.
solid, but whether we will be able to
More and more district municipalities, cities
implement it is going to be very challenging.
and big business are very conscious of water
The other encouraging sign and at the same
security and climate change related issues and
time discouraging news is that by law we have
they are trying to do their thing – sometimes a
to revise our National Water Resource
little unco-ordinated, sometimes with a bit of
Strategy every 5 years – the last Strategy
The challenges for water security arising from global and climate change
should have been completed in 2009, we are
leave a legacy, we want people who leave an
now at the end of 2012, we are three years
institutional memory – and that is what we
behind and it has only now been made a
are lacking; institutional memory. We have
public document for comment for the first
what I call a lot of new kids on the block –
time
is
they come and stay for a relatively short time
encouraging is that in the new National Water
in various climate change related jobs and
Resource Strategy of about 270 odd pages,
then they move on – it is a healthy sign that
climate change appears 69 times – it’s
these people are coming, but an unhealthy
becoming a strategic issue in the field of water
sign that the turn-over is so quick. We
and
The
encourage at the university, foreign students
commitment in the National Water Resource
to come and do graduate studies - the
Strategy towards factoring in issues of climate
disadvantage is that they get their degree and
change is great – whether it will happen in
then return to their own country and we are
practice is a different story – but there are
left with nothing but a book – so the big issue
very encouraging signs that are emanating
is institutional memory, capacity that stays,
through various pieces of legislation. I am
capacity that builds up incrementally.
–
that
that
I
is
see
discouraging;
as very
what
positive.
involved in a number of strategic think tanks
that are initiated by various government
Marian: Could you elaborate on specifically
departments. We don’t have enough scientists
what you mean by institutional memory and
however to do what we should be doing.
why it’s so important?
Marian: Would one potential resolution to
Roland: Institutional memory is remembering
this capacity challenge is to network and
collaborate with other southern African
countries?
what has happened in the past in order to
make the present day and future more
bearable and to make better decisions. When
you are in a certain vocational job for a long
Roland: Yes that is happening, the great thing
time you pick up knowledge, but more
about that is that the world has an abundance
importantly you pick up experience and
of bright young people who are willing to
people who move around very quickly, that
come to South Africa and other places but
leave after they are barely in the job do not
they come, they do what they need to do and
leave the institution with any memory of what
then they leave – we don’t just want people to
to do and what not to do and they do not leave
leave a document/thesis, we want people to
themselves with any experience and memory
The challenges for water security arising from global and climate change
of what to do and what not to do. So
Marian: Roland many thanks for your time
institutional memory is something that is built
and insights into this fascinating topic.
up over time, it is a buildup of experience
rather than knowledge.
About the author(s)
Roland Schulze is a recently retired professor of hydrology at the University of KwaZulu-Natal on the
Pietermaritzburg campus. He is a hydrological modeller by background who has been working on issues
of landuse impacts on hydrology and for the past 20 years also climate change impacts on both the
agricultural and the water sector in South Africa. Roland was voted the top water researcher in South
Africa in 2012 and is the author of two key publications: A 2011 Perspective of Climate Change and the
South African Water Sector; and An Atlas of Climate Change and the South African Agricultural Sector: A
2010 Perspective.
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