THE ROLE OF COINCIDENCE AND PROBABILITY JUDGEMENTS IN ANOMALOUS
EXPERIENCES
COINCIDENCE questionnaire on probability
AO1
Superstitions are learned because of coincidence – if 2 events occur at same time we
assume rightly or wrongly that one causes the other. Sometimes it’s obvious there
isn’t a causal relationship, but not always. People who believe in paranormal maybe
less likely to assess coincidences appropriately e.g. you think of a friend and then they
phone you – did one event cause the other. Zusne and Jones calculated the chance of
thinking about a known person by chance 5 minutes before learning of their death. In
USA 3000 adults a year would have this experience, i.e. chance not paranormal.
Why might people turn coincidences into causal relationships?
1. Illusion of control
Coincidence explanations give some sense of order in the world and increases the
feelings of control. Believers show greater illusion of control – Ayeroff and Abelson
2. Finding links between distantly related materials
Morris –individuals who believe they have had a psychic experience think this
because there appears to be an inexplicable association between their thoughts
and events in real world. E.g. seeing spherical object in sky and believing it is a
UFO. Brugger see study. There is an adaptive advantage, better to think you see a
tiger hidden in the grass than miss it.
3. General cognitive ability
Might be lower in believers, so less able to judge if paranormal event in fact has a
normal explanation. Research also found believers perform less well on syllogistic
reasoning.
o All cheats are immoral
o This psychic is a cheat
o Therefore this psychic is immoral
Logical conclusion
o If government is engaged in a cover up into existence of UFO’s it will
deny landings have taken place
o The government does deny UFO landings
o Therefore the government is engaged in a cover up
Conclusion is not logical
4. Evolutionary explanation
Accept Type 1 error to avoid more damaging type 2 error
AO2
1. Whitson and Galinsky found that reduced control led participants to detect
patterns where there were none and form illusory correlations between
unrelated events
Relationship depends on type of belief e.g superstition positive for external
locus of control. But PK is negative.
2. Not necessarily negative, similar characteristics underlie creativity. Research
has found link between creativity and paranormal belief – Thalbourne
3. Link between poor cognitive ability and belief not confirmed in all studies.
Some have found opposite – belief e.g. in ESP high in scientific community.
More evidence of link for syllogistic reasoning – Wiseman and Watt
But all the above relies on 2 measures
a) A measure of belief – the measure used e.g. Paranormal Belief Scale or just asking
them if they believe, van effect the results. Some characteristics only correlate
positively to some scales.
b) A measure of target behaviour – e.g. scale to measure locus of control may have low
validity.
PROBABILITY MISJUDGEMENT
Probability misjudgement – some people are better than others at judging the
probability of coincidental events than others – believers tend to underestimate
statistical likelihood of probability judgement tasks. Increasing their desire for causal
explanations for coincidences. It is a type of cognitive illusion resulting from failure to
judge probability.
WHY
Intuitive v analytical thinking styles.
Cognitive illusions cannot accept unexplained events as random, infer that unseen
forces at work. Have poor concept of randomness
Confirmatory bias – tend to ignore evidence that refutes their beliefs
More gullible to cold reading
Research
Repetition avoidance – participants asked to produce string of random numbers,
number of repetitions counted. People who underestimate probability give less
repetitions. Brugger – sheep avoid producing repetitions compared to goats i.e. link
between belief and probability misjudgement
Questions about probability e.g. birthday paradox
Conjunction fallacy Rogers – 16 conjunction vignettes – descriptions of occasions
where 2 events co-occur e.g reading horoscope that turned out to be true. People
asked to indicate probability of these events co-occuring. Sheep made more errors
than goats.
AO2
 Illusion of control – Whitson and Galinsky found reduced control led
participants to detect patterns where there were none and form illusory
correlations between unrelated events. The lack of control variable was
manipulated so can conclude cause and effect.
 Not all research has found a difference between believers and non believers.
This may be due to the way that belief is determined.
 A correlation or link doesn’t mean probability misjudgement is a cause of
paranormal belief
 Cognitive ability may explain the link between probability misjudgement and
paranormal belief. Research does not indicate where cognitive factors such as
cognitive illusions come from. Banziger found that participants on
parapsychology course emphasizing skepticism became more skeptical in their
thinking. Implying cognitive styles can be altered by experience.
 May be an attempt to make sense of the world and therefore have a survival
value.
 Kahneman and Tversy suggest an alternative to probability misjudgement –
they suggest people use various heuristics (strategies to solve problems) such
as representativeness. E.g. some understand that short run tossing a coin will
not be representative of 50:50 probability where others expect it to match
’gamblers fallacy’ if toss coin and get three heads in a row tails is more likely
on next throw. (it isn’t)