Summary of Retention & Graduation Trends This analysis covers the retention and academic performance trends of students admitted into Millersville University between Fall 1995 and Fall 2010. Data was collected by the University and includes demographic (i.e., ethnicity and gender) as well as academic data (i.e., yearly persistence, graduation, department and school at entry, and department and school at graduation). Additionally, academic performance data (i.e., course grade, course semester) was gathered from the transcripts of students who declared either no major or a major with the School of Humanities and Social Sciences between 2003 and 2010. University Demographics Ethnicity The University’s ethnic make-up has consistently been primarily Caucasian, with these students making up 81.9% of all admitted students. African-Americans made up the next largest ethnic group, making up 8.4% of all admitted students. Table 1 provides the raw numbers and percentages of all students admitted between 1995 and 2010. Table 1 Ethnic Demographics of University Population N Percent of Population African-American 1668 8.4 Asian 312 1.6 Latino 710 3.6 Caucasian 16275 81.9 Other* 203 1.0 Missing 712 3.6 Total 19880 100.0 * “Other” category is comprised of Native Americans, Non-resident Aliens, and Multiethnic individuals. None of these groups exceeded .5% of the total population on their own. Gender The majority of students admitted into Millersville University were female, making up 58.5% of the population (n = 11632). Males comprised 41.5% of the total population (n = 8248). Cohort Size Cohort size has averaged 1242.5 students per cohort, ranging from 977 admitted students in 1995 to 1384 students admitted in 2004. All class sizes except for one since 2000 have exceeded this average, ranging from 1238 admitted in 2001 to 1384 admitted in 2004. Demographics by School Ethnicity Analysis of the data indicates that the vast majority of the student body classified themselves as “Caucasian” (see Table 2). Caucasians made up almost 10 times the size of the next largest ethnic group (African Americans). Page 1 of 23 Table 2 Ethnic Make-up of Schools Asian Latino Caucasian AfricanAmerican HMSS 629 (9.8) 99 (1.5) 258 (4.0) Ed 262 (6.6) 35 (.9) 86 (2.2) M&S 335 (7.9) 110 (2.5) 150 (3.3) None 422 (8.4) 68 (1.3) 216 (4.3) Total 1668 (8.4) 312 (1.6) 710 (3.6) Numbers in parentheses are percentage of rows. HMSS = School of Humanities and Social Sciences Ed = School of Education M & S = School of Math & Sciences None = Exploratory 5075 (79.4) 3430 (86.7) 3660 (81.5) 4110 (81.5) 16275 (81.9) Other 78 (1.2) 26 (.7) 51 (1.1) 48 (1.0) 203 (1.0) Missing Total 250 (3.9) 119 (3.0) 163 (3.6) 180 (3.6) 712 (3.6) 6389 3958 4489 5044 19880 Ethnic minority groups made up a larger percentage of the student population within the School of Humanities and Social Sciences (HMSS) than within any other school (see Figure 1). For example, whereas just under 80% of the student population in the HMSS were Caucasian, Caucasians made up 83% or more of each of the other schools. African Americans and Latinos in particular were more likely to choose a major within HMSS than the other two Schools when first entering the University. Figure 1 Admission Type When examining the admission categories of students entering Millersville, a disparity appeared in the proportions of admissions types across the three Schools (see Table 3). Of all PACE students, 35.81% enrolled in an HMSS department, whereas less than half that number (15.31% in Education and 17.12% in Math and Sciences) chose departments in other Schools. Almost one-third (31.75%) of PACE students did not declare a major. Additionally, PACE students Page 2 of 23 made up 8.96% of all admitted students in HMSS department, whereas they made up 6.19% of students in Education (Ed), and 6.1% in Math and Sciences (M & S). In short, a greater number of PACE students declared a major within HMSS than in the other two Schools. Table 3 School Demographics by Admit Type and Ethnicity, 1995 -2010 Admit Type School African-American Asian Latino Caucasian Other Regular HMSS 296 83 141 5009 70 (5.1) (1.4) (2.4) (86.1) (1.2) Ed 118 29 57 3374 22 (3.2) (.8) (1.6) (90.9) (.6) M&S 175 94 111 3637 50 (4.2) (2.2) (2.6) (86.3) (1.2) None 174 49 88 4026 38 (3.8) (1.1) (1.9) (88.8) (.8) Overall 763 255 398 16046 180 (4.2) (1.5) (2.2) (87.8) (1.0) PACE HMSS 333 16 117 66 8 (58.1) (2.8) (20.4) (11.5) (1.4) Ed 144 6 28 56 4 (58.8) (2.4) (11.4) (22.9) (1.6) M&S 180 16 39 23 1 (65.7) (5.8) (14.2) (8.4) (.4) None 248 19 128 84 10 (48.8) (3.7) (25.2) (16.5) (2.0) Overall 905 57 312 229 23 (56.6) (3.6) (19.5) (14.3) (1.4) Numbers in parentheses are percentages of row. Missing Total 217 5816 (3.7) 112 3713 (3.0) 148 4215 (3.5) 161 4536 (3.5) 638 18280 (3.5) 33 573 (5.8) 7 245 (2.9) 15 274 (5.5) 19 508 (3.7) 74 1600 (4.6) High School Class Rank Analysis of the data indicates a significant difference in class rank among the three Schools and undeclared students, F (3, 17917) = 236.469, p = .000. Students entering HMSS departments as freshmen generally had a lower class rank (m = 68.71) than students entering Education (m = 74.48) or Math and Sciences departments (m = 73.57). HMSS students’ rank exceeded only those of undeclared students (m = 65.37). Additionally, a significant difference in class rank emerged among the ethnicities, with Caucasians having the highest class rank (71st percentile), and African Americans having the lowest (61st percentile), F (5, 17915) = 103.280, p = .000. Finally, regular admission students’ class rank (71.32) exceeded those of alternative admission students (m = 55.95), t (17919) = 30.732, p = .000. SAT Score SAT scores of HMSS students appear to lag behind those of their peers in other Schools, aside from exploratory students (see Table 4). When examining the interaction effect of ethnicity and school at entry of Math, Verbal, and Composite scores, significant differences emerged for each, FMath (15, 19642) = 3.149, p = .000; FVerbal (15, 19642) = 2.566, p = .001; FComposite (15, 19642) = 2.838, p = .000. HMSS students’ math scores were below the University average, as were their composite scores. However, their verbal scores were above the University average. The data also show that Caucasians’ SAT scores exceeded those of other ethnic groups and that regular Page 3 of 23 admit students (M = 542.38, V = 536.25, C = 1078.63) had higher scores than PACE students (M = 400.47, V = 408.05, C = 808.53) , tMath (19664) = 80.514, p = .000; tVerbal (19664) = 73.016, p = .000; tComposite (19664) = 92.514, p = .000. Math Verbal Composite Table 4 Average SAT Scores Across Schools and Ethnicities, 1995 - 2010 AfricanAsian Latino Caucasian Other Missing American HMSS 435.68 516.34 452.83 535.2 510.17 516.42 Ed 437.41 512.06 478.21 545.4 507.39 538.07 M&S 435.58 552.69 497.4 575.83 574.05 559.07 None 425.45 501.04 432.47 525.19 496.89 513.46 Overall 437.18 525.46 458.93 543.98 522.13 529.11 HMSS 450.63 508.39 463.54 545.46 496.95 531.02 Ed 446.06 485 478.45 537.83 522.61 528.99 M&S 448.24 487.04 488.56 545.56 499.29 523.27 None 433.66 484.48 437.81 522.31 467.78 510.39 Overall 445.11 492.81 462.65 538.03 493.25 523.67 HMSS 886.31 1024.73 916.38 1080.66 1007.12 1047.44 Ed 883.47 997.06 956.67 1083.22 1030.00 1067.06 M&S 901.82 1039.72 985.96 1121.39 1073.33 1082.35 None 589.11 985.52 870.28 1047.5 964.67 1023.85 Overall 882.29 1018.28 921.57 1082.02 1015.38 1052.78 Overall 520.79 536.09 562.39 511.86 530.98 531.21 529.68 533.32 509.83 525.95 1052.00 1065.78 1095.71 1021.69 1056.93 Summary In sum, the diversity of the HMSS student body exceeded that of the other 2 Schools. Students admitted through an alternative admission program also tended to gravitate toward HMSS as opposed to the other two Schools. However, students entering HMSS appeared to lag behind their peers who declared majors in either Education or Math and Sciences. This was evident in generally lower SAT scores as well as lower class ranks. Academic Performance at Millersville University To understand the academic performance of HMSS students, we analyzed their average course load as well as their performance in certain General Education required courses during their first two years of enrollment. Course Load University-wide, students in Math & Science earned the most credits in their first term (14.80) followed by students in HMSS (14.62), Education (14.58), and exploratory students (14.36), F (3, 19876) = 85.851, p = .000. Additionally, a significant difference emerged in the number of credit hours taken by regular-admit students and PACE students. Regular admission students took an average of 14.71 credits during a semester, whereas PACE students enrolled for only 13.15 credits, t (19878) = 46.914, p = .000. Additionally, Caucasian students took the most credits in the first term (14.71), with Latinos (13.80) and African Americans (13.76) taking fewer, F (5, 19874) = 212.595, p = .000. For HMSS students, similar trends emerged. On average, PACE students completed 13.21 credits per semester, whereas regular admit students completed 14.71 credits, t (6387) = 27.157, Page 4 of 23 p = .000. African American students and Latino students averaged 13.87 and 13.74 credit hours per semester respectively through their first four semesters whereas Asian and Caucasian students averaged 14.24 and 14.72 credit hours respectively during the same time period, F (5, 6383) = 72.936, p = .000. Additionally, for HMSS students between 2003 and 2010, non-majority students were more likely to take summer courses than were majority students, x2 (5) = 783.619, p = .000. For example, 7.9% of African-American students and 7.1% of Latino students completed a summer course, whereas 3.5% of Asian and 1.9% of Caucasians completed a summer course. In terms of admission type, 14.7% of PACE students completed a summer course whereas only 2% of regular admission students completed a summer course. x2 (3) = 2282.945, p = .000. Course Performance To examine HMSS students’ performance while at Millersville, we analyzed the performance during their first four semesters in courses between 2003 and 2010 as seen in their earned qualifying points for each class completed (i.e., GPA). We also analyzed their performance in six General Education-required courses: English 010, English 110, Communication 010, Communication 100, Math 090, and Math 100. Overall Grade Point Average Analysis of students’ transcripts revealed that grade point averages generally increased from semester 1 to semester 4. Grade point averages were 2.672 during semester 1, 2.673 during semester 2, 2.781 during semester 3, and 2.87 during semester 4. Data indicated that there were significant differences in first semester grade point averages across ethnicities (F (15, 60657) = 2.747, p = .000) and admit types (F (9, 60665, = 9.706, p = .000) (see Tables 5 and 6). Caucasians earned the highest GPA (2.799), with African-Americans earning the lowest GPA (1.951). PACE students earned a lower GPA (2.086) than regular admission students (2.734). These patterns were consistent through the first four semesters. Additionally, GPA for summer classes (m = 2.629), which ethnic minority and PACE students were more likely to take, were significantly lower than that of traditional semester (fall and spring) courses (m = 2.732), t (54482) = -3.334, p = .001. Analysis of majors’ overall GPA also revealed differences among departments at the end of 4 semesters, F (39, 60605) = 4.789, p =.000. GPA ranged from 2.379 to 3.149 (see Table 7). Table 5 1st Semester and 1st Year Grade Point Averages across Ethnicities, 2003-2010 1st Semester 2nd Semester 3rd Semester 4th Semester Overall African American 1.951 1.891 2.069 2.273 2.612 Asian 2.591 2.762 2.727 2.599 2.649 Latino 2.267 2.216 2.333 2.437 2.818 Caucasian 2.799 2.804 2.876 2.955 2.902 Other 2.284 2.275 2.612 2.505 2.727 Missing 2.612 2.649 2.818 2.902 2.749 Page 5 of 23 Table 6 1 Semester and 1 Year Grade Point Averages across Admit Types, 2003-2010 1st Semester 2nd Semester 3rd Semester 4th Semester Overall Regular 2.734 2.764 2.841 2.925 2.816 PACE 2.086 1.86 1.915 2.067 1.982 June / January 2.262 2.395 2.451 2.092 2.3 st st Table 7 Grade Point Averages of HMSS Majors through First Four Semesters, 2003 – 2010 1st Semester 2nd Semester 3rd Semester 4th Semester Overall Art 2.839 2.873 2.903 2.977 2.898 Buad 2.303 2.252 2.376 2.585 2.379 Comm 2.667 2.655 2.62 2.637 2.644 Econ 2.603 2.544 2.821 2.861 2.707 Engl 2.817 2.805 2.948 3.031 2.9 Forl 2.944 2.979 2.925 2.994 2.961 Geog 2.694 2.885 2.687 3.249 2.879 Govt 2.633 2.652 2.849 2.781 2.729 Hist 2.755 2.827 3.037 3.039 2.915 Musi 3.315 3.003 3.127 3.149 3.149 Phil 2.435 2.212 2.863 2.459 2.492 Sowk 2.483 2.592 2.833 3.072 2.745 Soan 2.410 2.405 2.663 2.747 2.556 None 2.684 2.866 2.742 2.930 2.806 General Education Required Classes A similar pattern seen above was also evident in grade point averages of required courses. Caucasian students consistently ranked at or near the top grade point averages across all courses, whereas African-American students consistently ranked at or near the bottom (Table 8). Latino students’ grade point average was slightly higher than their African American peers. Table 8 Grade Point Average for Required Courses across Ethnicities, 2003 – 2010 ENGL ENGL COMM COMM MATH MATH 010 110 010 100 090 100 African American 1.817 1.969 2.719 2.321 1.114 1.616 Asian 1.425 2.89 -2.938 2 2.229 Latino 1.994 2.124 2.744 2.43 1.469 1.937 Caucasian 2.144 2.799 3.286 2.973 1.697 2.455 Other 2.057 2.706 2.9 2.574 1.26 2.555 Missing 1.897 2.754 2.6 2.873 1.22 2.327 Average 1.885 2.658 2.743 2.861 1.322 2.363 F .357 39.411*** 1.261 29.148*** 2.795* 12.394*** *p < .05 ***p < .000 Page 6 of 23 Likewise, alternative-enrollment students’ grade point average (m = 1.93) lagged behind those of the regular admission students (m = 2.18), exceeding only those students admitted in June / January (m = 1.86) (Table 9). Table 9 Grade Point Averages for Required Courses across Admit Types, 2003 – 2010 ENGL ENGL COMM COMM MATH MATH 010 110 010 100 090 100 PACE 1.901 1.952 2.87 2.279 1.188 1.386 Regular 1.00 2.751 2.942 1.79 2.423 June / January 2.373 2.265 .91 1.878 F 2.167 43.473*** -43.555*** 5.584** 18.803*** **p < .01 ***p < .000 Additionally, examining pass / fail rates (Tables 10 and 11), there were differences in course outcomes across ethnicities. Caucasian students passed at a greater rate than any other ethnic group, and regular admission students passed at a greater rate than any other admission group. Table 10 Pass / Fail Rates in First Year Courses across Ethnicities, 2003 – 2010 Fail Pass Withdraw Z Incomplete African-American 469 3099 281 36 8 (12.0) (79.6) (7.2) (.9) (.2) Asian 23 426 27 2 0 (4.8) (89.1) (5.6) (.4) (.0) Latino 154 1339 85 9 1 (9.7) (84.3) (5.4) (.6) (.1) Caucasian 1194 26101 905 144 25 (4.2) (92.0) (3.2) (.5) (.1) Other 19 294 34 2 0 (5.4) (84.2) (9.7) (.6) (.0) Missing 159 2442 122 9 3 (5.8) (89.3) (4.5) (.3) (.1) Overall 2018 33701 1454 202 37 (5.4) (90.1) (3.9) (.5) (.1) Numbers in parentheses are percent by row. Table 11 Pass / Fail Rates in First Year Courses across Admit Types, 2003 – 2010 Fail Pass Withdraw Z Incomplete PACE 333 (10.6) 2570 (82.2) 191 (6.1) 29 (.9) 5 (.2) Regular 1562 (4.7) 30218 (91.1) 1200 (3.6) 158 (.5) 27 (.1) June / January 120 (11.3) 866 (81.4) 61 (5.7) 12 (1.1) 5 (.5) Numbers in parentheses are percent by row. Page 7 of 23 Comparison to National Data The 2003-04 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study conducted by the National Center for Education Statistics provides a unique comparison with Millersville students’ experiences. For the following table, we limited the student population to those who were enrolled at Master’s comprehensive institutions such as Millersville. Table 12 Academic Performance of Students at Master’s Comprehensive Students, 2003 Ethnicity Taken remedial First Year Ever received an Ever withdrew or courses; percent GPA < 2.0 incomplete; percent dropped after the responding “Yes” (reported responding “Yes” add/drop deadline; (reported in 2004) in 2004) (reported in 2006) percent responding “Yes” (reported in 2006) Caucasian 18.5% 12.1% 12.8% 31.1% African29.9% 23.2% 18.9% 34.6% American Latino 25.3% 17.2% 22.8% 32.9% Asian 21.7% 10.9% 11.5% 45.6% Total 20.6% 13.8% 14.4% 32.8% Source: NCES QuickStats computations, www.nces.ed.gov According to the above table, African American students were more likely to have taken a remedial course and to have a first year cumulative GPA that was below 2.0. Latino students were more likely to have received an incomplete in a course. Asian students were more likely to have withdrawn from a course after the add/drop deadline. When comparing the University’s students to this national sample, students within HMSS performed comparably or better than the average. African-American and Latino students had the lowest cumulative first year GPA, consistent with the data in Table 12. Additionally, for students in HMSS between 2003 and 2010, the majority of students enrolled in remedial courses (ENGL 010, COMM 010, and MATH 090) were either African-American or Latino (see Table 13). Yet, students’ reported rates of earning Incompletes or Withdrawals were lower than the national average. Caucasians did report the lowest frequencies of these grades (see Table 10). Table 13 Demographic Make-Up of Remedial Courses, HMSS Students, 2003 – 2010 Ethnicity ENGL 010 COMM 010 MATH 090 African-American 190 (56.4) 94 (65.7) 196 (48.3) Asian 4 (1.2) -2 (.5) Latino 82 (24.3) 25 (17.5) 67 (16.5) Caucasian 16 (4.7) 7 (4.9) 91 (22.4) Other 7 (2.1) 3 (2.1) 10 (2.5) Missing 38 (11.3) 14 (9.8) 40 (9.9) Total 337 143 406 Numbers in parentheses are percentage by column. Page 8 of 23 Summary Analysis of transcripts reveals that there was a performance gap in required and other courses among students of different ethnic groups and admission types. Caucasian and regular admission students earned higher grade point averages and passing rates than their peers in other categories. Retention Rates at Millersville University Analysis of the retention data shows a variety of trends with regard to University retention of students across admission type, ethnicity, School, and SAT score. The majority of the data analyzed here involves cohorts between 1995 and 2005. More recent cohorts were excluded from analysis because either the data was missing from the University’s records or because fewer than four years had elapsed between the students’ first semester and the time of this analysis. Ethnicity and School University-wide, the first-year persistence rate of all students remained constant at 72% from 1995 through 2008. However, across the University, persistence fell from years 1 to 4 for all schools (see Table 12, and Figures 2 and 3). Persistence of students who entered HMSS lagged behind persistence of students in the other two Schools, exceeding only those students who entered the University without a declared major. For regular-admission students, the largest drop in persistence for all Schools came after the first semester. The second largest drop occurred between years 1 and 2. Within HMSS, retention rate fell from 81.2% to 69.5% 2.3% in years 1 and 2. Between year 2 and year 4, this rate fell only another 3.3%. Within HMSS, Caucasian student and Asian student retention exceeded that of African-American, Latino, and “Other” students. In fact, retention rates of African-American, Latino, and “Other” students fell below 60% after year 2, whereas retention rates of Caucasian students never fell below 67%. Figure 2 4-Year Persistence Rates Across Schools and Exploratory Students, 1995 2005 100 90 80 Axis Title 70 60 HMSS 50 Education 40 Math & Sciences 30 None 20 10 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Page 9 of 23 Year 4 Table 12 Percent Persistence Rate Across Schools for Regular Admission Students, 1995 - 2005 Year School AfricanAsian Latino Caucasian Other Missing Overall American 1 HMSS 125 51 53 2767 23 104 3123 (75.8) (85.0) (71.6) (81.6) (76.7) (82.5) (81.2) Ed 61 21 25 2069 8 59 2243 (76.3) (87.5) (86.2) (88.3) (72.7) (89.4) (87.9) M&S 68 43 43 2080 18 66 2308 (69.4) (86.0) (71.7) (84.9) (69.2) (82.5) (83.9) None 73 26 26 2214 10 66 2427 (74.5) (74.3) (86.4) (79.7) (47.6) (71.7) (79.1) Overall 327 141 149 9130 59 295 10101 (74.1) (83.4) (77.2) (83.3) (67.0) (81.0) (82.7) 2 HMSS 106 35 40 2388 19 86 2674 (64.2) (58.3) (54.1) (70.4) (63.3) (68.3) (69.5) Ed 57 18 23 1908 9 56 2071 (71.3) (75.0) (79.3) (81.4) (81.8) (84.8) (81.1) M&S 56 37 26 1840 13 51 2023 (57.1) (74.0) (56.5) (75.1) (50.0) (63.8) (73.5) None 63 20 29 1869 9 56 2046 (64.3) (57.1) (65.9) (67.3) (42.9) (60.9) (66.7) Overall 282 110 118 8005 50 249 8814 (63.9) (65.1) (61.1) (73.0) (56.8) (68.4) (72.2) 3 HMSS 96 37 39 2340 18 84 2614 (58.2) (61.7) (52.7) (69.0) (60.0) (66.7) (68.0) Ed 51 16 19 1868 8 53 2015 (63.8) (66.7) (65.5) (79.7) (72.7) (80.3) (78.9) M&S 50 35 26 1739 13 51 1914 (51.0) (70.0) (56.5) (71.0) (50.0) (63.8) (69.6) None 52 20 27 1804 8 50 1961 (53.1) (57.1) (61.4) (65.0) (38.1) (54.3) (63.9) Overall 249 108 111 7751 47 238 8504 (56.5) (63.9) (57.5) (70.7) (53.4) (65.4) (69.6) 4 HMSS 92 34 34 2286 18 80 2544 (55.8) (56.7) (45.9) (67.4) (60.0) (63.5) (66.2) Ed 50 15 18 1840 8 56 1987 (62.5) (62.5) (62.1) (78.5) (72.7) (84.8) (77.8) M&S 50 34 26 1714 12 49 1885 (51.0) (68.0) (56.5) (69.9) (46.2) (61.3) (68.5) None 50 19 29 1740 6 52 1896 (51.0) (54.3) (65.9) (62.7) (28.6) (56.5) (61.8) Overall 242 102 107 7580 44 237 8312 (54.9) (60.4) (55.4) (69.2) (50.0) (65.1) (68.0) Page 10 of 23 Figure 3 4-Year Persistence Rates by Ethnicity, 1995 - 2005 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% African American Axis Title 60.0% Asian 50.0% Latino 40.0% Caucasian 30.0% Other Missing 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Admission Type Students admitted through regular admission were significantly more likely to persist through their four years of undergraduate education than students admitted through alternative admissions programs (x2 (1) = 287.811, p = .000) (see Table 13). Whereas persistence rate of PACE students was 67.5% after year 1, regular-admission student persistence rates did not reach that level until year 4 (see Figure 4). Figure 5 provides a longitudinal snapshot contrasting the first year persistence rates of regular and PACE admission students University-wide between 1995 and 2005. Figure 4 4-Year Retention Rates by Admission Types, 1995 - 2005 90 80 70 Axis Title 60 50 Regular 40 PACE 30 20 10 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Page 11 of 23 Year 4 Year 1 2 3 4 Table 13 Percent Persistence Rate Across Schools for PACE Students, 1995 – 2005 School AfricanAsian Latino Caucasian Other Missing American HMSS 161 8 55 35 2 9 (68.2) (53.3) (69.6) (67.3) (56.3) (56.3) Ed 79 4 12 34 1 2 (68.7) (66.7) (54.5) (75.6) (100.0) (100.0) M&S 77 7 14 13 0 4 (73.9) (43.8) (51.9) (72.2) (0) (100.0) None 113 7 44 36 3 7 (74.3) (58.3) (58.7) (67.9) (75.0) (63.6) Overall 452 26 125 118 6 22 (71.0) (53.1) (61.6) (70.2) (75.0) (66.7) HMSS 130 6 42 26 2 7 (55.1) (40.0) (53.2) (50.0) (100.0) (43.8) Ed 60 3 7 29 1 2 (52.2) (50.0) (31.8) (64.4) (100.0) (100.0) M&S 79 7 10 8 0 3 (59.0) (43.8) (37.0) (44.4) (0) (75.0) None 79 2 30 27 2 5 (52.0) (16.7) (40.0) (50.9) (50.0) (54.5) Overall 348 18 89 90 5 118 (54.6) (36.7) (43.8) (53.6) (62.5) (54.5) HMSS 119 3 40 24 2 7 (50.4) (20.0) (50.6) (46.2) (100.0) (43.8) Ed 61 3 6 25 0 2 (53.0) (50.0) (27.3) (55.6) (0) (100.0) M&S 57 7 10 8 0 3 (42.5) (43.8) (37.0) (44.4) (0) (75.0) None 72 2 26 24 2 6 (47.4) (16.7) (34.7) (45.3) (50.0) (54.5) Overall 309 15 82 81 4 18 (48.5) (30.6) (40.4) (48.2) (50.0) (54.5) HMSS 107 3 37 25 2 6 (45.3) (20.0) (46.8) (48.1) (100.0) (37.5) Ed 57 3 5 23 0 2 (49.6) (50.0) (22.7) (51.1) (0) (100.0) M&S 56 7 10 7 0 2 (41.8) (43.8) (37.0) (38.9) (0) (50.0) None 62 2 24 23 2 4 (40.8) (16.7) (32.0) (43.4) (50.0) (36.4) Overall 282 15 76 78 4 14 (44.3) (30.6) (37.4) (46.4) (50.0) (42.4) Page 12 of 23 Overall 270 (67.5) 132 (69.1) 137 (68.5) 210 (68.4) 749 (68.2) 213 (53.3) 102 (53.4) 107 (53.5) 146 (47.6) 568 (51.7) 195 (48.8) 97 (50.8) 85 (42.5) 132 (43.0) 509 (46.4) 180 (45.0) 90 (47.1) 82 (41.0) 117 (38.1) 469 (42.7) Figure 5 1st Year Retention Rate by Admission Type, 1995 - 2009 100 90 80 60 50 Regular 40 PACE 30 20 10 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Figure 6 4-Year Persistence Rates of PACE Students by School, 1988 - 2005 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% Axis Title Axis Title 70 50.0% HMSS 40.0% Education Math & Sciences 30.0% None 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Page 13 of 23 Year 4 Figure 7 4-Year Persistence Rates of PACE Students by Ethnicity, 1988 - 2005 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% Axis Title African American 50.0% Asian 40.0% Latino Caucasian 30.0% Other 20.0% Missing 10.0% 0.0% Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Among students admitted through the PACE program, students in HMSS departments maintained a persistence rate on par with other schools. However, persistence dipped from 67.5% through year 1 to 53.3% through year 2, then slipping to 48.8% through year 3, and 45.0% through year 4. These rates were higher than the rates of students in Math and Sciences, but lower than those in Education. Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Table 14 Percent Persistence Rate in HMSS – Regular vs. Pace, 1995 - 2005 AfricanAsian Latino Caucasian Other Missing American Regular 75.8 85.0 71.6 81.6 76.7 82.5 PACE 68.2 53.3 69.6 67.3 100.0 56.3 Regular 64.2 58.3 54.1 70.4 63.3 68.3 PACE 55.1 40.0 53.2 50.0 100.0 37.5 Regular 58.2 61.7 52.7 69.0 60.0 66.7 PACE 50.4 20.0 50.6 46.2 100.0 43.8 Regular 55.8 56.7 45.9 67.4 60.0 63.5 PACE 45.3 20.0 46.8 48.1 100.0 37.5 Overall 81.2 67.5 69.5 53.0 68.0 48.8 66.2 37.5 General Education Plan In 2008, the University enacted a new General Education plan. Comparing retention rates of students before this change and after this change, there appears to be a change in persistence rates for both African-Americans and PACE students. African-American students and students in the “Other” ethnic category witnessed notable decreases in persistence rate, as shown in Table 15. No other ethnic groups experienced this level of negative change. Page 14 of 23 African-American Asian Latino Caucasian Other Missing Table 15 HMSS Retention Rate by Ethnicity by Gen Ed, 1995 - 2009 Pre 2008 Gen Ed Retained 71.6 Not Retained 28.4 Retained 76.7 Not Retained 23.3 Retained 70.9 Not Retained 29.1 Retained 81.5 Not Retained 18.5 Retained 68.8 Not Retained 31.3 Retained 81.1 Not Retained 18.9 2008 & Later 62.3 37.7 85.7 14.3 75.7 24.3 82.9 17.1 53.8 46.2 81.1 18.9 When considering admission types, regular-admission student persistence rates remained steady from the previous General Education plan (81.3%) to the new General Education (82.3%) plan. However, for PACE students, persistence fell from 66.9% to 53.3% under the new plan.1 SAT Score Students with higher SAT scores were more likely to persist through four years of college (see Table 16). SAT scores of persisters increased with every year they were enrolled, whereas SAT scores on non-persisters were relatively flat. For example, composite SAT scores for persisters increased from 1065.28 in Year 1 to 1073.03 in Year 4 whereas composite scores for nonpersisters rose only from 1027.85 to 1029.91. This indicates that students who performed better on their SAT scores in high school were more likely to persist than students who did not. Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Table 16 Average SAT Scores for Non-Persisters and Persisters, 1995 - 2005 Non-Persisters Persisters t Math 513.14 534.91 -12.497*** Verbal 514.71 530.36 -9.514*** Composite 1027.85 1065.28 -12.373*** Math 515.12 537.50 -15.146*** Verbal 516.15 532.22 -11.074*** Composite 1031.26 1069.71 -14.991*** Math 514.78 538.57 -16.533*** Verbal 515.15 533.35 -12.876*** Composite 1029.93 1071.92 -16.818*** Math 515.01 539.08 -16.966*** Verbal 514.9 533.95 -13.671*** Composite 1029.91 1073.03 -17.522*** *** p = .000 df = 13240 1 Caution should be taken when interpreting this data, as the sample sizes for the previous General Education group (n = 5135) and the current General Education group (n = 810) are vastly different. Page 15 of 23 Average Credit Hours during Year 1 Analysis of the data indicates that likelihood of persisting into year 2 was positively related average credit hours taken during year 1, t (13312) = 4.511, p = .000. Students who persisted took an average of 14.51 credit hours per semester whereas students who did not persist took an average of 14.38 credit hours per semester. Additionally, students who took a larger course load during their first semester (m = 15.02) were more likely to persist through their entire first year than students who took fewer credit hours (m = 14.64), t (18575) = 16.557, p = .000. Summary As expected, the data revealed a steady decline in the numbers of persisters, with failure to persist most likely occurring during students’ first two years. Additionally, the decline for nonmajority students (i.e., ethnic minorities and alternative admission) was greater than their majority counterparts. Persistence was also related to SAT score and average credits taken during year 1. Graduation Rates at Millersville University According ot the Condition of Education 2011 report published by the National Center for Education Statistics, 65% of Asian, 57% of Caucasian, 46% of Latino, and 39% of African American students who began their Bachelor’s degree at public, four-year institutions in 2002 graduated within six years. Comparatively, Millersville’s graduation rates were 51.7% for Asians, 65.7% for Caucasians, 39.5% for Latinos, and 38.3% for African Americans (Institutional Research, MU Fact Book, 2010-2011). When limited to Master’s comprehensive institutions only (Millersville’s Carnegie Classification), the rates for the 2003 cohort graduating by 2009 were slightly different (see Table 17). Table 17 Comparison of Graduation Rates between Millersville University and Master’s Comprehensive Institutions, 2003 – 2009 Ethnicity Millersville National Average Asian 61.1% 45.4% Caucasian 65.7% 45.7% Latino 25.6% 38.1% African-American 34.9% 34.9% Source: www.collegeresults.org Millersville has a higher than average graduation rate for Asian and White students and an equivalent graduation rate for Black students. The graduation rate for Hispanic students at Millersville is well below the national average. The following discussion provides the results of data analysis on both length to graduation as well as likelihood of graduation. Several factors are associated with both variables, including ethnicity, major, SAT score, and admission type. Page 16 of 23 Length to Graduation Since 1995, the general trend in length to graduation has been decreasing, such that there was a significant difference that emerged in Cohort Year with regard to graduation length (F (10, 8542) = 8.817, p = .000). The average length to graduation was 399.6 (400 = 4 years, 300 = 3 years). However, since 2001, the average times to graduation has been less than 4 years (m2001 = 395.84, m2002 = 397.49, m2003 = 396.1, m2004 = 391.85, m2005 = 382.12). This trend was also evident within HMSS (F (10, 4133) = 3.493, p = .000. The average length to graduation was 400.22 for the cohorts admitted into the University between 1995 and 2005. All cohorts since 2001 graduated in less time than the average. Ethnicity & School Students in HMSS took approximately four years to graduate with their Bachelor’s degree. Time to graduation for HMSS students was significantly longer than the time span for students in Education, but significantly shorter than the time span for students in Math and Sciences, F (3, 8533) = 4.047, p = .007 (see Table 18). HMSS Education M&S Total Table 18 Length to Graduation x School x Ethnicity, 1988 - 2005 AfricanAsian Latino Caucasian Other Missing Total American 443.87 430.74 445.10 396.03 380.00 393.62 400.22 433.29 404.61 431.43 390.36 397.14 378.61 393.07 468.62 436.47 492.61 406.22 425.00 376.47 408.88 441.96 426.49 448.28 395.96 394.04 386.48 399.6 In general, Caucasians completed their undergraduate education more quickly than all other ethnic groups, with African American and Latino students taking the longest time to earn their degrees F (5, 8533) = 16.755, p = .000. There was no significant difference in the amount of time African Americans and Latinos took to graduate. Within HMSS, Caucasian students took just under 4 years on average to graduate. In contrast, African-Americans and Latinos took approximately a semester longer to graduate. Admission Type Students admitted through an alternative program such as PACE took significantly longer (m = 463.96) than students admitted regularly (m = 396.37), t (8551) = 17.55, p = .000. In HMSS, PACE students (m = 462.98) took significantly longer to graduate than regular-admission students (m = 396.45), t (4142) = 12.836, p = .000. SAT Score There is a negative correlation between SAT score and time to graduate, r (8518) math x length = -.110, p<.000; r(8518) verbal x length = -.124, p <.000, r(8518) composite x length = -.136, p < .000). That is, students who performed better on their SAT exams were more likely to earn their undergraduate degree more quickly than students who did not perform well on their test. This is born out in the SAT score averages between graduates (M = 540.28, V = 534.93, C = 1075.21) and non-graduates (M = 514.00, V = 514.05, C = 1028.05) tmath (13240) = 18.777, p = .000; tverbal (13240) = 15.184, p = .000, tcomposite (13240) = 19.433, p = .000. Page 17 of 23 Average Semester Credit Hours First, students who graduated took a slightly higher number of credits per semester throughout the college careers (m = 14.61) than students who did not graduate (m = 14.23), t (13312) = 14.54, p = .000. Second, students who graduated took more credit hours in their first semester (m = 15.05) than students who did not (m = 14.68), t (13312) = 16.224, p = .000. Graduation Rates Slightly under two-thirds (64.2%) of admitted students between 1995 and 2005 earned their Bachelor’s degree (Table 19). Students who declared a major within Education had the highest graduation rate (m = 74.6%), followed by Math and Sciences (m = 64.9%), HMSS (m = 62.2%), and then undeclared (m = 57.9%). Figure 7 illustrates graduation rates of HMSS departments. Table 19 First Department Graduation Rates, 1995 – 2005 School Department Did Not Graduate Graduated HMSS ART 171 (34.7) 322 (65.3) BUAD 553 (42.7) 742 (57.3) COMM 167 (31.8) 358 (68.2) ECON 10 (52.6) 9 (47.4) ENGL 161 (37.2) 272 (62.8) FORL 89 (32.5) 185 (67.5) GEOG 7 (35.0) 13 (65.0) GOVT 79 (37.6) 131 (62.4) HIST 108 (32.5) 224 (67.5) MUSI 97 (35.1) 179 (64.9) PHIL 4 (50) 4 (50) SOAN 106 (49.3) 109 (50.7) SOWK 50 (37.3) 84 (62.7) Total 1602 (37.8) 2632 (62.2) Education ELED 231 (17.9) 1057 (82.1) ITEC 163 (30.8) 366 (69.2) PSYC 210 (38.2) 340 (61.8) SPED 94 (24.9) 283 (75.1) Total 698 (25.4) 2046 (74.6) Math & BIOL 407 (37.2) 686 (62.8) Sciences CHEM 56 (27.9) 145 (72.1) CSCI 262 (41.3) 372 (58.7) ESCI 127 (29.8) 299 (70.2) MATH 132 (28.9) 324 (71.1) PHYS 53 (37.6) 88 (62.4) Total 1037 (35.1) 1914 (64.9) Other INTL 4 (36.4) 7 (63.6) NONE 1420 (42.1) 1954 (57.9) Total 1424 (42.1) 1961 (57.9) University Total 4761 (35.8) 8553 (64.2) Numbers in parentheses are percent of row. Page 18 of 23 Total 493 1295 525 19 433 274 20 210 332 276 8 215 134 4234 1288 529 550 377 2744 1093 201 634 426 456 141 2951 11 3374 3385 13314 Figure 7 Graduation Likelihood for First Declared Majors within HMSS, 1995 - 2005 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Graduated 40% Did Not Graduate 30% 20% 10% 0% Although the average graduation rate within HMSS was 62.22%, the data indicate that graduation rates have not exceeded 60% since 2003, as illustrated in Table 20 and Figure 8. Table 20 Graduation Rate x First Cohort in HMSS and University-Wide, 1995 - 2005 HMSS University Cohort Did Not Graduated Total Did Not Graduated Graduate Graduate 1995 140 (36.1) 248 (63.9) 388 378 (32.7) 778 (67.3) 1996 116 (40.6) 170 (59.4) 286 354 (36.2) 623 (63.8) 1997 110 (32.6) 227 (67.4) 337 337 (31.5) 732 (68.5) 1998 142 (40.6) 208 (59.4) 350 412 (37.2) 696 (62.8) 1999 147 (38.4) 236 (61.6) 383 435 (35.2) 801 (64.8) 2000 129 (33.3) 258 (66.7) 387 436 (34.5) 826 (65.5) 2001 126 (32.0) 268 (68.0) 394 386 (31.2) 852 (68.8) 2002 139 (34.2) 267 (65.8) 406 464 (36.8) 798 (63.2) 2003 169 (41.1) 242 (58.9) 411 504 (38.0) 821 (62.0) 2004 201 (41.0) 289 (59) 490 539 (38.9) 845 (61.1) 2005 187 (45.3) 226 (54.7) 413 516 (39.8) 781 (60.2) Total 1604 (37.8) 2639 (62.2) 4243 4761 (35.8) 8553 (64.2) Numbers in parentheses are percent of row. Page 19 of 23 Total 1156 977 1069 1108 12136 1262 1238 1262 1325 1384 1297 13314 Figure 8 Graduation Trends in HMSS, 1995 - 2005 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Graduated 40% Did Not Graduate 30% 20% 10% 0% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Students who declared majors within a school when they first entered the University were very likely to graduate within the same school (see Table 21). 91% of freshmen in Education, 92.7% of freshmen in HMSS, and 67.8% of freshmen within Math & Sciences graduate within the same school. 8% of freshmen who began in Education and 21.1% of freshmen who began in Math & Sciences graduated within HMSS. Of exploratory freshmen, over half (56%) graduated from HMSS. Overall, of graduates from HMSS, 58.9% started within the School, 10.7% began in Math and Sciences, 4% began in Education, and 26.4% began with no major. Table 21 Rates of Remaining in the Same School from Entrance to Graduation, 1995 – 2005 School at Graduation Education HMSS M&S Total ED 1861 (91.0) 164 (8.0) 21 (1.0) 2046 School at HMSS 155 (5.9) 2445 (92.7) 39 (1.5) 2639 Entrance M&S 172 (9.0) 445 (23.3) 1297 (67.8) 1914 None 695 (35.6) 1095 (56.0) 164 (8.4) 1954 Total 2883 (33.7) 4149 (48.6) 1521 (17.8) 8553 Graduate Demographics by School Across all Schools and within HMSS, Caucasians had the highest graduation percentage of all groups (see Table 22). African-Americans and Latinos had the lowest graduation percentages of all groups. However, examination of the demographics of all graduates reveals a slightly different picture. Ethnic minority students were more likely to graduate from HMSS than from the other two Schools. Of the 465 African-American students who graduated, 284 (61.1%) graduated from Page 20 of 23 HMSS; of the 163 Latino students who graduated, 98 (60.1%) graduated from HMSS. These trends were evident in each Schools’ respective graduate demographics (see Table 23). HMSS ED M&S None Overall Table 22 Graduation Rates for Ethnic Groups in First Schools, 1995 – 2005 AfricanAsian Latino Caucasian Other American Graduated 179 36 62 2261 20 (44.6) (48.0) (40.5) (65.7) (62.5) No Graduation 222 39 91 1181 12 (55.4) (52.0) (59.5) (34.3) (37.5) Graduated 100 17 24 1845 7 (51.3) (56.7) (47.1) (77.3) (58.3) No Graduation 95 13 27 543 5 (48.7) (43.3) (52.9) (22.7) (41.7) Graduated 94 39 33 1687 13 (40.1) (59.1) (45.2) (68.3) (48.1) No Graduation 139 27 40 782 14 (59.9) (40.9) (54.8) (31.7) (51.9) Graduated 93 22 44 1738 7 (37.2) (46.8) (37.0) (61.4) (28.0) No Graduation 157 25 75 1092 18 (62.8) (53.2) (63.0) (38.6) (72.0) Graduated 465 114 163 7531 47 (43.2) (52.3) (41.2) (67.7) (49.0) No Graduation 613 104 233 3598 49 (56.8) (47.7) (58.8) (32.3) (51.0) Table 23 Demographics of Graduates for Cohorts, 1995 – 2005 AfricanAsian Latino Caucasian Other Missing American HMSS 284 54 98 3558 28 127 (6.9) (1.3) (2.3) (85.8) (.7) (3.1) ED 152 26 42 2584 7 72 (5.3) (.9) (1.5) (89.6) (.2) (2.5) M&S 29 34 23 1389 12 34 (1.9) (2.2) (1.5) (91.3) (.8) (2.2) Total 465 114 163 7531 47 233 (5.4) (1.3) (1.9) (88.1) (.5) (2.7) Numbers in parentheses are percent of row. Missing 81 (57.0) 61 (43.0) 53 (77.9) 15 (22.1) 49 (58.3) 35 (41.7) 50 (48.5) 53 (51.5) 233 (64.2) 164 (35.8) Total 4149 2883 1521 8553 When examining these percentages in light of the Schools’ entry demographics, graduation rates of ethnic groups were fairly similar across all Schools (see Table 24). Caucasians comprised a greater percentage of all Schools’ graduating populations than their entry populations. The percentage of African Americans and Latinos fell from entry to graduation for all Schools. Table 24 Page 21 of 23 Comparison of Entrance and Graduation Demographics by School, 1995 - 2005 African- Asian Latino Caucasian Other Missing Total American 401 75 153 3442 32 142 4245 HMSS Entrance (9.4) (1.8) (3.6) (81.1) (.8) (3.3) Graduation 284 (6.9) 54 (1.3) 98 (2.3) 3558 (85.8) 28 (.7) 127 (3.1) 4149 Entrance 195 (7.1) 30 (1.1) 51 (1.9) 2388 (87.0) 12 (.4) 68 (2.5) 2744 Graduation 152 (5.3) 26 (.9) 42 (1.5) 2584 (89.6) 7 (.2) 72 (2.5) 2883 Entrance 232 (7.9) 66 (2.2) 73 (2.5) 2469 (83.7) 27 (.9) 84 (2.8) 2951 Graduation 29 (1.9) 34 (2.2) 23 (1.5) 1389 (91.3) 12 (.8) 34 (2.2) 1521 Entrance 1078 (8.1) 218 (1.6) 396 (3.0) 11129 (83.6) 96 (.7) 397 (3.0) 13314 465 114 163 (5.4) (1.3) (1.9) Numbers in parentheses are percentages of rows. 7531 (88.1) 47 (.5) 233 (2.7) 8553 ED M&S Total Graduation Summary There are a number of trends to be noted in the data. Using Tinto’s (1980) theory of student retention as a guide, we can break these trends down into pre-entry attributes and academic integration as measured by scholarly performance. Pre-Entry Attributes 1) HMSS students’ average SAT scores trail those of their peers in the other two schools. 2) HMSS students’ average class rank trails those of their peers in the other two schools. 3) The largest percentage of students admitted through an alternative program such as PACE, AIM for Success, and the Millersville Scholars Program choose a major within HMSS. 4) The ethnic diversity of HMSS is greater than that of Education and Math and Sciences. 5) There is a relationship between SAT score and ethnicity and admission type. The lower SAT scores and lower class rank appears to be associated with the more diverse demographic make-up of HMSS. Both Education and Math and Sciences appear to attract those students who may be better prepared academically for college. Academic Integration 1) Latino and African-American students’ GPA trailed that of their Caucasian peers. In the first semester, in particular, GPA of minority students was at or below a “C.” After 4 semesters, GPA for Latino and African-American students had climbed to a C / B average. 2) PACE students’ GPA lagged those of regular admission students. Page 22 of 23 3) The helpfulness of preparatory PACE programs appears questionable, as is evident in the low “preparatory” course GPA and the lower relative GPA in “regular,” equivalent courses. 4) Majority students were more likely to take a full course load (15 credits) than minority students. 5) Minority students were more likely to complete a summer course than majority students. 6) Minority students and PACE students were more likely to fail a course, withdraw from a course, or earn a Z score than majority students. Persistence and Graduation 1) Persisters and graduates tend to have higher SAT scores than non-persisters and nongraduates. 2) Persisters and graduates tend to complete more credits per semester than non-persisters and non-graduates. 3) Graduation rates within HMSS have hovered just above 60% except for the period between 2003 and 2006. 4) A relative greater proportion of the graduating classes of HMSS is comprised of minority students than both Education and Math and Sciences. Page 23 of 23