Worth the Wait?: The Equity of the Voluntary Interdistrict Desegregation Program in St. Louis, 2005-2009 Ain Akilah Grooms University of Georgia March 2013 Paper presented at the 38th Annual Conference of The Association for Education Finance and Policy
New Orleans, LA Draft: Do Not Cite Without Permission Worth the Wait? 2 Abstract Voluntary interdistrict desegregation programs, born out of the Civil Rights Movement, were designed specifically to address racial segregation in public schools by providing minority students from urban areas with free transportation to schools in suburban districts. This paper will use the voluntary interdistrict desegregation program currently in operation in St. Louis as the foundation of the study, focusing on the five-year span between 2004 and 2009, following the lifting of the court order in 1999. Parents of past program participants have openly admitted to enrolling because of access to a “better education.” Using the equity framework outlined by Berne and Stiefel (1984), this study serves to examine the variation in the distribution of resources across the 15 suburban districts that participate in the program. Draft: Do Not Cite Without Permission Worth the Wait? 3 Worth the Wait?: The Equity of the Voluntary Interdistrict Desegregation Program in St. Louis, 2005-2009 In 1954, the United States Supreme Court unanimously ruled, in the Brown v. Board of Education of Topeka case, that racial segregation was unconstitutional, and that separation of the races denied Black children the equal protection guaranteed by the Fourteenth Amendment. This case remains one of the most influential lawsuits of the past hundred years, and has helped in shaping not only the landscape of public education, but of society as a whole. The Supreme Court’s decision initiated an ongoing nationwide discussion about equal educational opportunity. Horace Mann (1848) once declared that education was to be “‘the great equalizer’ of the conditions of men—the balance wheel of the social machinery” (para. 9), yet, despite the Brown decision, our country’s history of racial, residential, and economic segregation continues to pose a tremendous obstacle to the creation of equal schools and an equal society. Schools were, and still are, a reflection of our communities, and as neighborhoods changed, so too did the schools. Public schools became more racially and socioeconomically segregated, as Black, Hispanic/Latino, and poor White children attended city schools, and affluent White students attended suburban schools as a result of White Flight. When White families left the cities, they took with them financial and political support for the schools (Morris, 2004; Schneider, 1992). As the divide between rich and poor (and between suburban and urban) grew, questions arose regarding the educational opportunities that were being provided in public schools across the country. Draft: Do Not Cite Without Permission Worth the Wait? 4 Voluntary interdistrict desegregation programs,1 born out of the Civil Rights Movement, were designed specifically to address racial segregation in public schools by providing minority students from urban areas with free transportation to schools in suburban districts. There are currently seven programs in operation across the country: Boston, MA; Hartford, CT; Milwaukee, WI; Minneapolis, MN; Rochester, NY; Palo Alto, CA; and St. Louis, MO. These programs were either developed through state law as a result of local grassroots movements, federal court rulings, or state rulings (Wells et al., 2009). Parents of participants in the voluntary interdistrict desegregation programs have openly admitted to participating in the program because of access to the “better education” that is being provided in the suburbs (Armor, 1972; Eaton, 2001; Orfield et al., 1998; Wells & Crain, 1997). This paper will use the transfer program currently in operation in St. Louis as the foundation of the study, focusing on the five-year span between 2004 and 2009. The intent of this paper is not to compare the resources available in St. Louis to those in the neighboring communities, but rather, to bring attention to the differences between the participating suburban areas. The word “suburb” generally brings to mind a White, middle- to upper-middle class community, and using the equity framework outlined by Berne and Stiefel (1984), this study serves to examine the variation in the distribution of resources across the 15 suburban districts that participate in the voluntary interdistrict desegregation program in St. Louis. The Voluntary Interdistrict Desegregation Program in St. Louis The plaintiffs in the 1972 Liddell v. Board of Education of the City of St. Louis case argued that the School Board had operated in a discriminatory manner following the 1954 Brown 1 The terms, voluntary interdistrict desegregation programs and transfer programs, are used interchangeably throughout this research. Draft: Do Not Cite Without Permission Worth the Wait? 5 ruling, and as a result, deprived equal educational opportunities to the Black students in St. Louis. A settlement was finally reached in 1983, which included the creation of a dual transfer program, where Black students from St. Louis were provided with free transportation to suburban schools at all grade levels, and non-Black suburban students were eligible to enroll in city magnet schools. Through this transfer program, the suburbs agreed to increase the percentage of Black students by at least 15% of their current enrollment, though not to exceed 25% of total enrollment (Heaney & Uchitelle, 2004). By 1999, following a lengthy process, a bill was passed that ended court-ordered desegregation of the city’s public schools, but would keep both the transfer program and the magnet schools. The bill was passed through the combined support of the suburban Republicans, who realized the program’s financial benefit to their districts, and the urban Democrats, who supported desegregation. The settlement agreement proposed continued financial support for the transfer program through a sales tax increase for city residents in order to raise $40 million to replace the $60 million that had formerly been provided by the courts (Freivogel, 2002). The suburban districts agreed to keep transfer enrollment at 85 percent of the 1998-99 transfer enrollment for the first three years of the settlement, with a reduction to 70 percent of the 1998-99 transfer enrollment in years four through six. Beginning in the seventh year following the settlement, there would be no minimum transfer enrollment required for the participating districts (Voluntary Interdistrict Choice Corporation [VICC], 2012). The transfer program utilizes an extensive recruiting process by automatically sending applications to all Black students currently enrolled in St. Louis Public Schools. Those families are able to rank the participating suburban school districts paired with the attendance zone in Draft: Do Not Cite Without Permission Worth the Wait? 6 which they live, and are assigned to their preferred districts based on available space. Priority is given to students already enrolled in the transfer program but attending a suburban school outside of their assigned district, then to new applicants who have a sibling already enrolled in the program. Finally, the remaining applications are processed on a first-come, first-served basis. Students may be denied a space in a suburban school if there are no seats available or if there are significant disciplinary problems in the student’s academic record (VICC, 2012). Since the Settlement Agreement, the voluntary transfer program has had two five-year extensions. The Voluntary Interdistrict Choice Corporation’s Board of Directors unanimously approved the first program extension in 2007, extending the program and new student enrollment through the 2013-2014 school year. The participating suburban districts could decide individually whether to accept new students during the extension period, with the understanding that all currently enrolled students can continue in the program. At the time of the first extension, two districts decided not to admit any additional students. The second extension was approved in November 2012, extending the program through the 2018-2019 school year. There are now a total of four districts no longer accepting new transfer students into their schools (VICC, 2012). This study focuses on the second five years (2004-2009) after the settlement agreement, which also includes the time before and after the first program extension. Based on the original settlement agreement, suburban school districts received a reimbursement amount equal to the suburban tuition amount (VICC, 2012). Due to persistently declining enrollment, the reimbursement rate is reviewed annually, as the majority of funding for the program is provided through the state foundation formula and sales tax revenue. Draft: Do Not Cite Without Permission Worth the Wait? 7 Suburban reimbursement was eventually reduced to a maximum of $9,100 per transfer students, and as of 2012, the reimbursement rate for the suburban districts was further reduced to $7,000 per transfer student, or the actual per-pupil cost of the district, whichever is less. The average cost for a transfer student, including tuition (per-pupil amount) and transportation, is $11,928 (Glaser, 2012), greater than the reimbursement rate, but significantly less than the per-pupil expenditure amount of $15,861 in the St. Louis Public School System (Missouri Department of Education, 2013). The 1999 settlement agreement did not require the participating suburban districts to enroll the same percentage of transfer students into their schools each year, and as a result, districts began phasing out a small percentage of available seats each year, approximately five to six percent annually. Enrollment was at its peak of 14,227 total participating students, including 1,249 suburban students attending city magnets, during the 1999-2000 school year (VICC, 2012), the first year following the settlement agreement. Initially, the goal was to have 2,500 suburban students attending the city’s magnet schools; however, the long bus rides and the lesser-quality academic programs in magnet schools were cited as reasons for the withdrawal of suburban students from the transfer program (Freivogel, 2002; Heaney & Uchitelle, 2004). By the 2009-2010 school year, ten years following the settlement agreement, enrollment had dropped to 6,314 total participating students, including 167 suburban students attending magnet schools. Enrollment again fell during the 2012-2013 school year to 5,130 total students, with 86 suburban students attending the city’s magnets (VICC, 2012). The transfer program utilizes an extensive recruiting process by automatically sending applications for the transfer program to all Black students currently enrolled in St. Louis Public Draft: Do Not Cite Without Permission Worth the Wait? 8 Schools. Black families are able to choose from selected suburban school districts paired with the attendance zone in which they live. Priority is given to students already enrolled in the transfer program but attending a suburban school outside of their assigned district, then to new applicants who have a sibling already enrolled in the program. Finally, the remaining applications are processed on a first-come, first-served basis. Students may be denied a space in a suburban school if there are no seats available or if there are significant disciplinary problems in the student’s academic record. Non-Black families living in selected suburbs are eligible to apply to attend magnet schools in the city and can receive applications directly from the VICC website or office (VICC, 2012). Data Although the voluntary interdistrict desegregation program in St. Louis is a dual transfer program, this study will specifically examine the variation in the distribution of resources across the 15 participating suburban districts, as families have chosen to participate because of the “better” educational opportunities available there. The majority of the prior research on voluntary desegregation busing programs has been qualitative in nature, where participants and their families were asked questions about their reasons for enrolling in the program and whether they would participate again (Armor, 1972; Eaton, 2001, 2006; Orfield et. al, 1998; Wells & Crain, 1997). Past quantitative studies about these busing programs have looked expressly at standardized test scores and/or high school graduation rates (Angrist & Lang, 2004; Eaton & Chirichigno, 2011). While it is critical to understand the individual reasoning for program participation as well as the resulting academic outcomes, it is equally important to analyze the educational inputs (resources) available in the participating suburban districts, Draft: Do Not Cite Without Permission Worth the Wait? 9 which may ultimately impact achievement. This study will not include the tuition reimbursement received by the participating suburban districts, but instead will focus on the resources available to “typical” suburban students in each of their home districts. The district-level financial data used to examine the resources available in the 16 participating districts (including St. Louis) were obtained from the Common Core of Data’s Local Education Agency Finance Survey Data (F-33 file) gathered by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), the Missouri Department of Education, the St. Louis County Department of Revenue, and the U.S. Census Bureau. Berne and Stiefel (1994) suggested that district-level data has less variability than data collected at the school level, and can be less complex. Conversely, Card and Krueger (1996) argued that district-level aggregated data presents the opportunity for omitted variables. While there are important differences in district size and in the spending of elementary, middle, and high schools, the use of district-level data removes some of the variation found in school-level data, especially as education dollars are often allocated to specific categories (Berne & Stiefel, 1994). Four resource categories are included in this study: spending, teacher, school, and community. Four spending variables are included in this study: per pupil expenditures, per pupil revenue received from property taxes, average teacher salary, and local tax effort. Using the F33 file, the number of students, the average expenditures, and the average revenue received from property taxes were obtained. Based on this information, the average per-pupil expenditure and the average per-pupil revenue received from property taxes were calculated. The average teacher salary was obtained from the Missouri Department of Education, and the school district tax effort was obtained from the Missouri Department of Revenue. Draft: Do Not Cite Without Permission Worth the Wait? 10 Two teacher variables were included, and were obtained from Missouri Department of Education. This information included the percentage of teachers in the district with at least a Master’s degree and the average years of experience. These teacher variables are often used to illustrate the differences in teacher characteristics (see Iatarola & Stiefel, 2003; Greenwald, Hedges, & Laine, 1996; Hanushek, 1994, 1996; Rubenstein et al., 2006). Five district-level school variables were also obtained from the Missouri Department of Education, including the percentage of Black students, the percentage of White students, the percentage of students that qualify for free and reduced priced lunch, the pupil-teacher ratio, and the percentage of Black graduates. Finally, in an effort to provide a snapshot of the larger demographic differences between St. Louis and the participating suburban school districts, this study will also include data collected from the U.S. Census Bureau. All of the school districts are located within the larger St. Louis County, which includes unincorporated areas. As a result, census data included here are based on county subdivisions, which are defined by the Census Bureau as “the primary divisions of counties and statistically equivalent entities for the reporting of decennial census data” (U.S. Census Bureau, 2013b, para. 1). The six community variables included are: median home price, median family income, and demographical information pertaining to race, family poverty and educational attainment. Physical distance (number of miles) between St. Louis and the suburban districts is included to provide an estimate of students’ travel time. Integrationists that have advocated for busing in the past argued that, “the greater the distance the student travels to get to the school, relative to options available to him, the more the school should offer him when he Draft: Do Not Cite Without Permission Worth the Wait? 11 arrives” (Campbell, 1973, p. 482). The number of miles between the sending and receiving districts is used to illustrate the divide between urban and suburban districts, and to determine whether there is a relationship between the resources available in a suburban district relative to its proximity to the sending district. Methods This study relies upon both horizontal and vertical equity analyses to examine the variation in the distribution of educational resources among the suburban receiving districts only. These particular 15 suburban districts are unique in that they chose to continue partnering with the St. Louis Public School system after the end of court ordered desegregation (even if they are no longer enrolling new transfer students), and therefore, it is necessary to document the educational resources to which the transfer students will have continued access. These equity analyses cover the five years between the 2004-05 school year and the 2008-09 school year. Horizontal equity was developed to assess the equality of the distribution of a particular resource across districts, arguing that equal students should be treated equally (Berne & Stiefel, 1984). The range, the coefficient of variation, and the McLoone Index will be utilized to examine horizontal equity across each of the five years. The appropriate equity thresholds used in this study were developed by Odden and Picus (2008). Vertical equity relies upon multivariate linear regression and was developed to assess the variation in access to resources across districts, based on the assumption that different students require differing amounts of resources to improve achievement (Berne & Stiefel, 1984). In this study, the vertical equity of the percentage of Black students graduating from Draft: Do Not Cite Without Permission Worth the Wait? 12 high school in the participating districts was analyzed using selected variables from each of the four resource categories. The vertical equity analysis was conducted via a weighted least squares regression analysis with district enrollment as the weighted variable to adjust for district size. As noted, the sample size for this study was only 15 suburban districts. Researchers have suggested a ratio of 10 cases per each variable (Maxwell, 2000). However, Steinberg (2007) notes that policy research “often deliberately focuses on a small number of cases that show a unique departure from the norm—whether these are exemplary accomplishments or cautionary tales—and which therefore contain important lessons for the larger universe of policy practice” (p. 185). These 15 districts represent a “departure from the norm” in that they have volunteered to remain policy actors in addressing the larger metropolitan issues of desegregation and educational equity. In an effort to maximize the statistical significance of the regression model, a composite database was created in which each suburban district in each of the five years was assigned an individual case, totaling a sample size of 75 cases. Findings Descriptive Statistics Prior to conducting the horizontal and vertical input equity analyses, it was necessary to conduct an analysis using descriptive statistics (Tables 1-4) in order to note the differences between the sending district, St. Louis, and the receiving suburban districts between 2005 and 2009. As evidenced in Table 1, across the four spending variables (per pupil revenue from property tax, local tax effort, per pupil expenditure, and average teacher salary), St. Louis had lower teacher salaries and less per pupil revenue from property taxes than the suburban Draft: Do Not Cite Without Permission Worth the Wait? 13 average across all five years. However, St. Louis had higher per pupil expenditures than the suburban average in four out of the five years. Table 1. Descriptive Statistics, Spending Variables, 2005-2009 Mean (SD) Spending Variables Per Pupil Revenue from Property Tax St. Louis Suburban Average (n=15) Tax Effort St. Louis Suburban Average Per Pupil Expenditure St. Louis Suburban Average (n=15) Average Teacher Salary St. Louis Suburban Average (n=15) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 3,340 5,532 (2,245) 3,325 5.747 (2,568) 3,779 6.103 (2,352) 5,362 6,636 (2,659) 5,318 6,616 (2,550) * 3.95 (.68) * 3.92 (.68) * 3.58 (.55) * 3.60 (.57) * 3.81 (.63) 11,885 10,208 (2,714) 11,729 10,397(2,881) 10,979 11,351 (2,822) 15,576 12,365 (3,432) 16,675 13,382 (4,162) 40,657 50,960 (5,117) 43,250 51,831 (5,867) 45,454 53,093 (5,623) 47,260 54,870 (5,767) 45,840 56,150 (5,918) *unavailable at the time of this writing Source: Missouri Department of Education, 2013; National Center for Education Statistics, 2013; St. Louis County Department of Revenue, 2013 For the two teacher variables (Table 2), St. Louis Public Schools employed teachers with fewer years of experience on average than did the suburbs, and employed substantially fewer teachers with Masters degrees. The descriptive analysis of the five school variables (Table 3) shows that St. Louis is a majority Black school district (although the city is only 49.2% Black) while the suburban communities and schools are majority White. Both the Black population in the suburban schools and the White population in the city schools have declined over the five years. The percentage of students who qualify for free and/or reduced lunch is also greater in the St. Louis school district, but is also steadily declining, while that same population is rising in suburban schools. The pupil-teacher ratio in St. Louis and in the suburbs have both declined over the past five years, but it still remains larger in St. Louis. Finally, the percentage of Black Draft: Do Not Cite Without Permission Worth the Wait? 14 graduates in St. Louis, which experienced a dip in 2007, is substantially smaller than the percentage in the suburbs, which also experienced a dip in 2006. Table 2. Descriptive Statistics, Teacher Variables, 2005-2009 Teacher Variables Average Years of Experience St. Louis Suburban Average (n=15) Percent Teachers w/ Masters degrees St. Louis Suburban Average (n=15) 2005 2006 Mean (SD) 2007 2008 2009 12.7 12.95 (1.68) 12.2 12.61 (2.04) 12.5 12.61 (1.91) 11.6 12.67 (1.78) 11.5 12.55 (1.77) 42.5 68.35 (10.59) 40.9 68.71 (11.62) 42.4 70.7 (11.36) 43.9 71.27 (9.75) 44.3 70.81 (10.18) Source: Missouri Department of Education, 2013 Table 3. Descriptive Statistics, School Variables, 2005-2009 School Variables Percent Black Students St. Louis Suburban Average (n=15) Percent White Students St. Louis Suburban Average (n=15) Percent FRL Students St. Louis Suburban Average (n=15) Student Teacher Ratio St. Louis Suburban Average (n=15) Percent of Black Graduates St. Louis Suburban Average (n=15) 2005 2006 Mean (SD) 2007 2008 2009 80.9 20.35 (7.31) 81.8 19.54 (7.48) 81.7 19.67 (8.13) 81.4 19.58 (8.33) 81.0 19.13 (8.65) 15.2 73.69 (8.69) 14.0 73.73 (9.06) 13.6 73.1 (9.80) 13.6 72.53 (10.31) 13.7 72.44 (10.63) 86.1 29.67 (18.54) 81.0 29.97 (19.30) 80.1 29.14 (19.39) 72.3 29.2 (19.70) 68.7 30.82 (20.67) 20 16.93 (2.6) 19 16.80 (2.54) 19 16.86 (2.64) 18 16.53 (2.56) 18 15.8 (2.62) 59.6 89.65 (8.3) 55.1 86.1 (7.60) 54.2 89.85 (5.46) 56.2 90.48 (5.29) 57.5 91.76 (7.29) Source: Missouri Department of Education, 2013 Data on the community variables (Table 4) obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau finds that St. Louis residents are, on average, poorer, less White, and have less educational achievement than the residents of the participating suburban districts. Median family income is approximately $43,000 less in St. Louis, home values are approximately $110,000 less in St. Draft: Do Not Cite Without Permission Worth the Wait? 15 Louis, and there are approximately 17% more families living in poverty in St. Louis than in the participating suburbs. While the percentage of White families in St. Louis is 46.6% as compared to the suburban average of 88.13%, the percentage of Black families in the suburbs is almost negligible at 5.7%, compared to the St. Louis average of 48.2%. Interestingly, however, is that Black students account for an average of approximately 20% of the student population in the suburbs, while Black families only account for an average of 6% of suburban families. According to these data, the transfer program is responsible for the majority of the Black students attending suburban schools, traveling an average of almost 30 miles round trip each day. Table 4. Descriptive Statistics, Community Variables, 2009 Variable Median Family Income (in dollars) Mean (SD) 2009 St. Louis Suburban Average (n=15) 41,349 84,329 (22,568) St. Louis Suburban Average (n=15) District Percent Families in Poverty St. Louis Suburban Average (n=15) District Percent Residents Over 25 with Bachelors Degrees St. Louis Suburban Average (n=15) District Percent White St. Louis Suburban Average (n=15) District Percent Black St. Louis Suburban Average (n=15) Distance from St. Louis (in miles) St. Louis Suburban Average (n=15) 119,900 220,972 (84,550) Median Home Value (in dollars) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013a 21 3.77 (2.33) 14.9 26.2 (9.11) 46.6 88.13 (6.74) 48.2 5.7 (6.14) 14.79 (5.20) Draft: Do Not Cite Without Permission Worth the Wait? 16 Horizontal Equity Analysis To calculate the horizontal equity of resources among the 15 participating suburban districts, three equity measures were used: the range, the coefficient of variation, and the McLoone Index (see Table 5). The range is used in this study, rather than the restricted range or range ratio, due to the small sample size. The horizontal analysis was conducted on a total of 15 variables from all four resource categories. The community variables were included in this analysis with the understanding that although transfer students do not have direct access to those particular variables, it is inferred that the transfer students experience an increase in social and cultural capital through interactions with the suburban students who do have direct access to those variables by living in these communities. The enrollment variable was only included in the range calculations. The range is the difference between the highest and lowest resource amounts in the sample—the greater the range, the greater the inequity. Over the five years, the ranges of most of the variables exhibited a positive average annual change; however, the range in district enrollments (between 21,000 and 22,000 students) and the percentage of students who qualified for free and reduced lunch (hovering at 62-63%) remained relatively stable over the five years, with average changes of 0.40% and 0.19%, respectively. The range in the percentage of White students in the school experienced the greatest average annual increase, at 9.47%, growing from a difference of 28% in 2005 to a difference of almost 41% in 2009. Similarly, the percentage of Black students experienced an average annual increase of 8.29%, growing from a difference of 23% in 2005 to almost 32% in 2009. The range of per pupil expenditures also increased at an average annual change of 9.17%, from $9,900 in 2005 to $13,400 in 2009. This Draft: Do Not Cite Without Permission Worth the Wait? 17 data shows that schools are becoming more racially and socioeconomically isolated as the gap widens between the districts with fewer and greater numbers of Black and White students and between wealthier and less wealthy suburban districts. Two variables exhibited a substantial negative average annual change in their ranges over the five-year period: tax effort (-3.90%) and the percentage of Black graduates (-6.15%). The range in tax effort decreased to 1.88 in 2009, down from 2.25 in 2005. Interestingly, although the gap is decreasing between property-rich and property-poor districts as evidenced by the decrease in the range in tax effort, the average change in the range between per pupil expenditures is increasing almost twice as much over the same time period. Also of note is the decrease in the gap between districts with fewer and greater numbers of Black graduates (20% in 2009, down from 28% in 2005), yet, as evidenced by Table 3, there has been an overall decrease in the average percentage of Black students enrolled in suburban schools over the five years. The decrease in the range simply signifies that of the few Black students enrolled, more are graduating. The coefficient of variation, calculated by dividing the standard deviation by the mean, is used to determine the variation about the mean, or the percentages of the observations that fall within one standard deviation of the mean (Picus et al., 2001). A coefficient of variation at or below 0.05 represents equity (Berne & Stiefel, 1984; Guthrie et al., 2007; Odden & Picus, 2008). None of the variables experienced appropriate levels of equity over the five-year span. Draft: Do Not Cite Without Permission Worth the Wait? 18 Table 5: Horizontal Equity for Select Variables, Suburban Districts (n=15) Measure Variable 2005 Per Pupil Revenue from Property Tax 8,205 Tax Effort 2.2561 Per Pupil Expenditure 9,861 Average Teacher Salary 18,560 Average Years of Experience 6.1 Percent Teachers w/ Masters degrees 37.8 School Percent Black 23.00 School Percent White 28.40 Range School Percent FRL 63.20 Student Teacher Ratio 8.0 Percent of Black Graduates 28.2 Enrollment 21,389 Percent Residents with Bachelors* Percent Families in Poverty* Median Family Income* Median Home Value* Per Pupil Revenue from Property Tax .41 Tax Effort .17 Per Pupil Expenditure .27 Average Teacher Salary .10 Average Years of Experience .13 Percent Teachers w/ Masters degrees .15 School Percent Black .36 Coefficient of School Percent White .12 Variation School Percent FRL .62 Student Teacher Ratio .15 Percent of Black Graduates .09 Percent Residents with Bachelors* Percent Families in Poverty* Median Family Income* Median Home Value* Per Pupil Revenue from Property Tax .76 Tax Effort .88 Per Pupil Expenditure .82 Average Teacher Salary .91 Average Years of Experience .86 Percent Teachers w/ Masters degrees .88 School Percent Black .62 McLoone School Percent White .89 Index School Percent FRL .79 Student Teacher Ratio .82 Percent of Black Graduates .91 Percent Residents with Bachelors* Percent Families in Poverty* Median Family Income* Median Home Value* *five year average as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau (2013a) 2006 8,940 2.2860 10,343 23,582 7.4 42.32 24.40 32.10 60.60 8.0 28.9 21,841 2007 8,691 1.8245 9,873 21,922 6.6 42.9 27.30 36.20 62.60 8.0 19.1 21,756 2008 9,401 1.8584 10,483 22,719 7.2 39.7 29.30 39.00 62.80 8.0 20.5 21,929 .47 .18 .28 .11 .16 .17 .38 .12 .64 .15 .09 .39 .15 .25 .11 .15 .16 .41 .13 .67 .16 .06 .40 .15 .27 .10 .14 .13 .43 .14 .67 .15 .06 .59 .88 .81 .89 .83 .84 .58 .90 .72 .81 .91 .65 .90 .82 .89 .87 .86 .56 .90 .73 .81 .93 .68 .90 .78 .91 .90 .90 .56 .90 .73 .82 .94 2009 9,298 1.8843 13,644 21,565 7.2 34.8 31.60 40.70 63.60 11.0 20.4 21,731 23.6 8.6 67,296 0.75 .38 .16 .31 .11 .14 .14 .45 .15 .67 .17 .08 0.35 0.62 0.27 0.38 .67 .89 .85 .91 .88 .88 .55 .90 .68 .85 .93 0.53 0.68 0.75 0.73 %Change 3.31% -3.90% 9.17% 4.64% 4.90% -1.62% 8.29% 9.47% 0.19% 9.38% -6.15% 0.40% -1.21% -1.03% 3.95% 2.73% 2.54% -0.90% 5.74% 5.79% 1.98% 3.44% 0% -2.26% 0.29% 1.03% 0.01% 0.64% 0.07% -2.92% 0.28% -3.58% 0.92% 0.55% Draft: Do Not Cite Without Permission Worth the Wait? 19 The two most inequitable variables were the percentage of students who qualify for free and reduced lunch and the per pupil revenue from property taxes. The coefficient of variation for the percentage of students qualifying for free and reduced lunch grew from 0.62 in 2005 to 0.67 in 2009, meaning that the distribution of poorer students was inequitable across the 15 participating suburban districts. The average change in over the five years was also relatively small, just under 2%. Although the coefficient of variation in per pupil revenue from property tax decreased from 0.41 in 2005 to 0.38 in 2009, the distribution remained inequitable across the five years. The two variables with the lowest coefficients of variations were average teacher salary and the percentage of Black graduates. Despite the low coefficient of variation in average teacher salary, it still increased from 0.10 in 2005 to 0.11 in 2009. The coefficient of variation in the percentage of Black graduates decreased from 0.09 in 2005 to 0.08 in 2009, which may be again attributed to the decline in the number of Black students attending suburban schools. While there was an unequal distribution across all of the community variables, the least inequitable was the median family income, with a coefficient of variation of 0.27. The percentage of families in poverty was the most inequitable, with a coefficient of variation of 0.62, almost mirroring the coefficient of variation of the percentage of students who qualify for free and reduced priced lunch. This data reflects the within-race socioeconomic disparities present in the suburbs, as gaps persist between rich and poor in the increasingly White participating suburbs. Overall, the distributions of the selected school, teacher, and spending variables not only remained inequitable over the five years, but for most variables, the inequality increased Draft: Do Not Cite Without Permission Worth the Wait? 20 during that same time period. The two variables with the greatest average increase over time in their coefficients of variation were the percentages of Black and White students. The distribution of the percentage of Black students was more inequitable (growing from 0.36 to 0.45) than the distribution of the percentage of White students (growing from 0.12 to 0.15), but both increased at approximately 6% over the five years. This reinforces the notion of the widening gap between racially isolated and diverse schools, despite the efforts of the voluntary interdistrict desegregation program. Unlike the previously mentioned calculations, the McLoone Index focuses only on those districts below the median level of resources. The McLoone measures the ratio of the actual resources for the districts below the median to what the resources would be if the resources in those districts were raised to the median level. Another difference between the McLoone Index and the other calculations is that, for the McLoone, a ratio of 1.0 represents equality and zero represents inequality (Berne & Stiefel, 1984; Guthrie et al., 2007; Odden & Picus, 2008). The results from Table 5 show that the distribution in resources using the McLoone Index were, in general, more equitably distributed as compared to the calculations relying on the coefficients of variation; however, the only equitable distributed variable was the percentage of Black graduates, consistently reaching the appropriate equity threshold of 0.90 each year. Other more equitably distributed resources included tax effort, average teachers salary, and the percentage of White students. Most variables experienced negligible or very small average annual increases over time, denoting their stability. As the McLoone Index is reported in the reverse of the coefficient of variation, a negative annual percent change indicates an increase in inequity. Draft: Do Not Cite Without Permission Worth the Wait? 21 The three least equitably distributed variables also experienced the greatest negative average annual changes over time, exhibiting an increase in inequality. The percentage of Black students remained the most inequitably distributed, with a McLoone Index declining from 0.62 in 2005 to 0.55 in 2009, demonstrating increasing inequality. The McLoone Index of the percentage of students that qualify for free and reduced priced lunch declined from 0.79 in 2005 to 0.68 in 2009. Finally, the McLoone of the per pupil revenue from property taxes declined from 0.76 in 2005 to 0.67 in 2009, experiencing a significant dip in 2006 with a McLoone Index of 0.59. As evidenced by the horizontal equity analyses, the percentage of Black students in the suburban school districts is the most inequitably distributed across all five years and across all three equity measures. This is important to note because although the 15 participating suburbs have continuously committed to the transfer program’s mission of school integration, as the program policies and district enrollment became left up to the discretion of the individual suburbs, levels of inequality increased. Despite the equal distribution among Black graduates, those levels are still reflective of the decline in enrollment. The distribution of local tax effort, or the amounts that residents are taxed for education, has become more equitably distributed across all years and all equity measures while per pupil expenditures, the amount that districts are spending, have become less equitably distributed. The distributions of the two spending variables demonstrate the variations in spending and wealth among the suburban districts. Draft: Do Not Cite Without Permission Worth the Wait? 22 Vertical Equity Analysis Parents of past program participants stated that they chose to enroll their children in the program because of the access to a “better” education. For the purposes of this study, a “better” education is defined as the percentage of Black students that graduate. Table 3 shows a stark contrast in the graduation rates of the St. Louis Public Schools (where program participants would have been assigned) to that in the suburban schools. In 2009, Black students in St. Louis had an average graduation rate of 57.5%, compared to 91.76% in the suburbs, evidence that Black students in suburban schools are more likely to graduate from high school, and thus more likely to have access to improved postsecondary opportunities, including college. Table 3 also indicates that the transfer students comprise the majority of the Black students enrolled in the suburban schools, therefore, the percentage of Black graduates will be used as the dependent variable in the model. District enrollment was included as a weighted variable. The percentage of Black students and the percentage of students that qualify for free and reduced lunch was not found to be highly correlated (r=.481, p<.000), making an interaction term unnecessary for the model. The percentage of students that qualify for free and reduced priced lunch was found to be highly correlated with each of the community variables corresponding to wealth and/or educational attainment (median family income, median home value, percentage of residents over the age of 25 with Bachelors degrees, and the percentage of families living in poverty), and as such, the community variables were not included in the model. A dichotomous variable, “continue”, was created to specify whether the district chose to continue enrolling new students in that particular year. Although each district Draft: Do Not Cite Without Permission Worth the Wait? 23 participated throughout each of the five years of the study, by 2009, four districts had decided to no longer enroll new transfer students with the understanding that currently participating students would be able to graduate from their suburban high schools. The results of the vertical equity analysis can be found in Table 6. Initially, five separate vertical equity analyses were conducted in order to determine the variation among predictor variables by year. Although several variables were statistically significant across years, the models (designed the same as the one in Table 6) were not, and instead, the analysis was conducted on the composite database. Table 6. Vertical Equity Regression Analysis, Graduation Rate of Black Students by Weighted District Enrollment, 2005-2009 Independent Variables School Percent Black School Percent FRL Per Pupil Expenditure Percent Teachers with Masters Degrees Tax Effort Distance Continue F-score Adjusted R2 Standardized Coefficient -.490* .631* .589* .242** 3.488* .191 N=75; *p<.05; **p<.10 The model explained 19% of the variation in the graduation rates of Black students in these participating suburban districts. The results indicate that the strongest predictor of the graduation rate of Black students is the percentage of students that qualify for free and reduced price lunch. The standardized coefficient, .631, was statistically significant. The second strongest predictor, with a statistically significant standardized coefficient of .589, was the per pupil expenditure. The weakest predictor of the graduation rate of Black students was the distance of the suburb from the city of St. Louis. The standardized coefficient of .242 was Draft: Do Not Cite Without Permission Worth the Wait? 24 statistically significant. While this supports Coleman’s (1973) claim that the farther a student travels to school, the more resources should be available, this model demonstrates that distance is not the primary predictor of achievement. Interestingly, the percentage of Black students in the district was the only negative predictor of the graduation rate of Black students, with a statistically significant standardized coefficient of -.490. These results imply that as the percentage of Black students enrolled in a district increases (with the descriptive analyses showing that the transfer program is responsible for the majority of the Black students enrolled), the graduate rate of the Black students decrease. There was no statistically significant relationship between the graduation rate of Black students and either the percentage of teachers in the district with Masters degrees, the district’s tax effort, or whether districts continued to enroll new transfer students. Conclusion The use of the horizontal and vertical equity analyses has proven useful in determining the equity of school finance funding formulas across the nation. Over the years, these analyses have helped bring attention to the differing provision, whether legitimately or illegitimately, of educational opportunities to particular groups of students. The results of the horizontal and vertical equity analyses presented here bring attention to issues of integration in the metropolitan St. Louis area. The settlement agreement passed in 1999 was designed to continue the program for an additional ten years, and in 2007, the districts voted to continue the program for another five years, through the 2012-13 school year. Following the 2007 vote, districts were allowed to individually determine the number of transfer students they would Draft: Do Not Cite Without Permission Worth the Wait? 25 accept into their schools. While it is true that most of the participating suburban districts continue to accept new transfer students from St. Louis, that number is steadily declining. Two conclusions can be drawn from the horizontal equity analyses. First, all suburbs are not the same, as evidenced by the levels of inequity present in per pupil revenue from property tax, per pupil expenditures, the percentage of residents age 25 and over with Bachelor’s degrees, the percentage of students that qualify for free and reduced priced lunch, and median home values and family incomes. Just because a transfer student chooses and is assigned to a particular suburban district, assumptions cannot automatically be made about the type of suburban community in which the schools are located. Second, as districts began to make increasingly individualized program and policy decisions regarding enrolling additional transfer students, levels of inequity increased, as evidenced by the percentage of Black students in the schools. The vertical equity analysis here supports previous research claims that school composition (the percentages of Black and White students and students that qualify for free and reduced lunch) and community wealth (per pupil expenditures and per pupil revenue from property taxes) affect graduation rates. However, because these districts choose to intentionally increase their percentage of Black students, despite the decreasing rate over time, it is critically important to conduct further regression analyses to uncover additional predictors of the graduation rates of Black students, including peer effects pertaining to social and cultural capital and funding specifically designated for support services and/or low-income students. Throughout this research, questions persist about policy implementation, resource allocation, and equality of educational opportunity in the metropolitan St. Louis area. The Draft: Do Not Cite Without Permission Worth the Wait? 26 opposite side of this dual transfer program, (White, suburban students attending the city’s magnet schools), is also experiencing declining enrollment, but based on individual choice rather than district policy. Diversity and achievement are two components explicit to the mission and success of the transfer program, yet the declining enrollments of White students in city magnets by choice suggests, first, their belief that city schools will not provide high-quality education; second, that Black students and families will continue to shoulder the burden of integration more often than White students and families; and third, diversity and integration is not as important as academic achievement. At the height of the program, almost 15,000 transfer students participated—the vast majority coming from the city—and despite smaller enrollment numbers due to individual enrollment policies adopted by the participating suburban districts, this program is still a popular school choice option among Black families in St. Louis. Attention is often rightly focused on the disparities between urban and suburban districts, yet as Black families continue to participate in this voluntary transfer program with the belief that their children will be attending school in better districts, this research rightfully expands the discussion to include disparities between the participating suburban districts. Draft: Do Not Cite Without Permission Worth the Wait? 27 References Angrist, J.D. & Lang, K. (2004). Does school integration generate peer effects? Evidence from Boston’s METCO Program. The American Economic Review, 94(5), 1613-1634. Armor, D. J. (1972). The Evidence on Busing. 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