Lectures Outline – Polling and Opinion Research (POLM5010)
Winter 2012
Professor: Dr. André Turcotte
316A St. Patrick’s Building
Email: turcotte@connect.carleton.ca
Phone: 520.2600 ext. 7426
Lectures: Wednesday – 18:05– 21:00 Patterson Hall 129
Office Hours: Wednesdays - 12:30-14:00
Or by appointment
Course Description
Public opinion is one of those concepts which are well known but not known well. In
1965, Harwood Childs documented close to 50 different definitions for public opinion
(1965). Three years later, W. Philips Davison wrote in the International Encyclopedia of
the Social Sciences that public opinion lacked a generally accepted definition. (1968:
188) Today, if one “googles” public opinion, one would have to go through over
82,000,000 entries. One of the objectives of this course is to provide a better
understanding of this elusive concept.
Polling is also a well known fixture in modern society. When Archibald Crossley, Elmo
Roper and George Gallup established what was to become scientific polling, their goals
were to provide a mechanism for the voices of the many to be heard by the elites. The
impact has been undeniable. Donsbach and Traugott went as far as to suggest that “two
technologies have changed our modern political systems more than anything else:
television and public opinion research.” (2008:3) Controversy has plagued polling from
its inception. Prime Minister John Diefenbaker famously declared once that “polls were
for dogs” and many leaders before and since have expressed similar sentiments.
Despite such criticisms, it has been noted that “over eighty public opinion polls
measuring the voting intentions of Canadians were released in the media in 2009. While
this pales in comparison to the one hundred and seventy-four such polls released a year
earlier, it is remarkable to realize that the media monitor the hypothetical vote choice of
the Canadian electorate on average more than once a week.” (Turcotte: upcoming
2012). A second objective of this course is to take a critical look at public opinion
research in general and polling in particular to improve the students’ knowledge of the
practice, analysis and reporting of opinion research findings.
To achieve the objectives, the course was designed to provide students with a strong
theoretical foundation about polling and opinion research as well as an applied look at
the practice of measuring public opinion. This will be done through a mixture of
traditional lectures and guest lectures from practitioners and experts. Students will also
get a ‘behind the scene” look at the Making of the 2012 Manning Centre Barometer.
1
Three books were ordered for this course and will be used extensively:
Herbert Asher, Polling and the Public: What Every Citizen Should Know, 8th edition,
Washington: CQ Press, 2012.
Peter M. Butler, Polling and Public Opinion: A Canadian Perspective, Toronto:
University of Toronto Press, 2007.
Susan Herbst, Numbered Voices: How Opinion Polling Has Shaped American Politics,
Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1995.
Supplemental Readings will be assigned and made available through WEBCT.
Lectures
January 4th, 2012 –
Introduction and Overview of the Course
January 11th, 2012 – Lecture - The Elusiveness of Public Opinion
Readings:
Herbert Asher, Polling and the Public: What Every Citizen Should Know, 8th edition,
Washington: CQ Press, 2012, chapters 1 and 2.
Peter M. Butler, Polling and Public Opinion: A Canadian Perspective, Toronto:
University of Toronto Press, 2007, chapter 1.
Susan Herbst, Numbered Voices: How Opinion Polling Has Shaped American Politics,
Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1995, chapters 1-2-3.
Behind the Scene:
Background to the 2012 Manning Centre Barometer
Previous Findings
Steps Taken to Date
Looking Ahead
Discussant: Ian Kaufman
Poll: Ihor Korbabicz
January 17th and 18th, 2012 –
Behind the Mirror
TIME: 5:45pm to 8pm
Location:
160 Elgin St., Suite 1800
Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
K2P 2P7
2
January 25th, 2012 – Joint POLM5010/5013 Lecture – Polling and Elections
Guest Lecturers:
Michael Robinson
Richard Anderson
Robin Sears
Readings:
Herbert Asher, Polling and the Public: What Every Citizen Should Know, 8th edition,
Washington: CQ Press, 2012, chapter 7.
Discussants:
Daniel White
Sebastien Togneri
February 1st, 2012 – Lecture – Opinion Dynamics, Opinion Formation and the
Measurement of Public Opinion
Readings:
Peter M. Butler, Polling and Public Opinion: A Canadian Perspective, Toronto:
University of Toronto Press, 2007, chapter 5.
Susan Herbst, Numbered Voices: How Opinion Polling Has Shaped American Politics,
Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1995, chapters 4-5-6-7.
Behind the Scene:
The 2012 Manning Centre Q-Design
Data Collection
Discussants:
Tyler Sommers
Michael Sakyi
Devin Nicol
Poll:
Matthew Burbidge
Jacqueline DaSilva
February 8th, 2012 – Lecture - Methodology
Readings:
Herbert Asher, Polling and the Public: What Every Citizen Should Know, 8th edition,
Washington: CQ Press, 2012, chapters 3, 4, 5, and 8.
Peter M. Butler, Polling and Public Opinion: A Canadian Perspective, Toronto:
University of Toronto Press, 2007, chapter 2.
3
Behind The Scene:
Update on Data Collection
Getting Ready for Analysis
Discussants:
Dan Murphy
Ihor Korbabicz
Gustavo Morales
Poll:
Kevin Geiger
Natalia Jankowski
Shauna Kadyschuk
Andrew McGrath
February 15th, 2012 –
Lecture - Using Qualitative Research for Strategic
Purposes
Guest Lecturer: Hugh Macphie
February 22nd – 2012 – Reading Week
February 29th, 2012 –
Lecture - Contemporary Challenges in Opinion
Research
Behind the Scene:
Analysis and Building The Narrative
Poll:
Ian Kaufman
Nicholas MacDonald
Gustavo Morales
Dan Murphy
Devin Nicol
Discussants:
Kevin Geiger
Natalia Jankowski
4
March 7th, 2012 –
Special Guests:
Danielle Smith
Ian Todd
March 9th, 2012 (tentative) – Presenting Opinion Research
March 21st, 2012 -
Joint POLM5010/5013 Lecture – Polling and the Media
Guest Lecturers:
Christopher Waddell
Elly Alboim
Michael Robinson
Richard Anderson
Robin Sears
Readings:
Herbert Asher, Polling and the Public: What Every Citizen Should Know, 8th edition,
Washington: CQ Press, 2012, chapter 6.
Peter M. Butler, Polling and Public Opinion: A Canadian Perspective, Toronto:
University of Toronto Press, 2007, chapter 3.
Discussants:
Jacqueline DaSilva
Andrew McGrath
Poll:
Tyler Sommers
March 28th, 2012 -
Lecture - New Generation, New Directions?
Guest Lecturer: Dr. David Coletto
Discussants:
Matthew Burbidge
Nicholas MacDonald
Poll:
Sebastien Togneri
Daniel White
SPECIAL CLOSING LECTURE:
April 3rd, 2012 –
Special Lecture: Polling at a Crossroads
Guest Lecturer: Michael Marzolini
Time and Location to Be Determined
5
Readings:
Herbert Asher, Polling and the Public: What Every Citizen Should Know, 8th edition,
Washington: CQ Press, 2012, chapter 9.
Susan Herbst, Numbered Voices: How Opinion Polling Has Shaped American Politics,
Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1995, chapter 8.
Evaluation
Assignment 1 – Confidential Memorandum (10%)
The most often used method to communicate research findings to clients is through a
“Confidential Memorandum.” A Confidential Memorandum is designed to give short,
quick, high level findings and strategic directions to the client as the project is under way.
For this assignment, each student will write a 2-page memo about “Behind the Mirror.”
The format will be as follows:
Confidential Memorandum
DATE
To: Andre Turcotte, Ph.D
From:
Re: 2012 Manning Centre Barometer
To follow are the main findings and strategic implications of the qualitative
research phase conducted in Ottawa on (DATE)…
The memo will be due by 9AM the following morning (my email address:
turcotte@connect.carleton.ca)
Assignment 2 – Analyzing the Polls (30%)
Each student will be responsible for a 10-minute critical presentation of a recently
published public opinion poll (or polls). The presentation can deal with different aspects
of polling from the methodology, analysis and/or reporting of the findings.
The presentations will be assigned at random starting January 11th, 2012.
Assignment 3 – Critical Questioning (25%)
Each lecture, one or two students will be assigned to lead the discussion about the topic
of the week. The schedule will be made available by Jan 11th, 2012.
6
Research Journal – (35%)
Students will keep a research journal throughout the course. After each lecture, each
student will write a critical reflection of what was learned and discussed during the
week’s lecture and their personal reflection.
The Research Journal is due April 6th, 2012.
Academic Accommodations and Expectations
For Students with Disabilities: Students with documented disabilities requiring
academic accommodations in this course must register with the Paul Menton Centre for
Students with Disabilities (PMC) for a formal evaluation of disability-related needs.
Documented disabilities include physical, mental, and learning disabilities, mental
disorders, hearing or vision disabilities, epilepsy, drug and alcohol dependencies,
environmental sensitivities, as well as other conditions. Registered PMC students are
required to contact the PMC, 613-520-6608, early each term to ensure that your
Instructor receives your Letter of Accommodation no later than two weeks before the first
assignment is due or the first in-class test/midterm requiring accommodations.
For Religious Observance: Students requesting accommodation for religious
observances should apply in writing to their instructor for alternate dates and/or means
of satisfying academic requirements. Such requests should be made during the first two
weeks of class, or as soon as possible after the need for accommodation is known to
exist, but no later than two weeks before the compulsory academic event.
Accommodation is to be worked out directly and on an individual basis between the
student and the instructor(s) involved. Instructors will make accommodations in a way
that avoids academic disadvantage to the student. Instructors and students may contact
an Equity Services Advisor for assistance (www.carleton.ca/equity).
For Pregnancy: Pregnant students requiring academic accommodations are
encouraged to contact an Equity Advisor in Equity Services to complete a letter of
accommodation. Then, make an appointment to discuss your needs with the instructor at
least two weeks prior to the first academic event in which it is anticipated the
accommodation will be required.
Plagiarism: The Undergraduate Calendar defines plagiarism as: "to use and pass off as
one's own idea or product, work of another without expressly giving credit to another."
The Graduate Calendar states that plagiarism has occurred when a student either: (a)
directly copies another's work without acknowledgment; or (b) closely paraphrases the
equivalent of a short paragraph or more without acknowledgment; or (c) borrows, without
acknowledgment, any ideas in a clear and recognizable form in such a way as to present
them as the student's own thought, where such ideas, if they were the student's own
would contribute to the merit of his or her own work. Instructors who suspect plagiarism
are required to submit the paper and supporting documentation to the Departmental
Chair who will refer the case to the Dean. It is not permitted to hand in the same
assignment to two or more courses.
Oral Examination: At the discretion of the instructor, students may be required to pass
a brief oral examination on research papers and essays.
7
Connect Email Accounts: The School of Journalism and Communication strongly
encourages students to sign up for a campus email account. Important course and
University information will be distributed via the Connect email system. See
http://connect.carleton.ca for instructions on how to set up your account.
Expectations:
Students are expected to come to class prepared and on-time. Several guests were
invited to participate in the course and tardiness is disruptive and must be avoided as
much as possible.
Cell phones and Smart phones are to be put on “vibrate” and be used only for
emergency.
Efforts will be made to follow the schedule described above. However, because of the
nature of the polling business and the practitioners who are involved in that industry,
potential changes are possible. Any unexpected scheduling change will be
communicated to students in advance and via email.
8