DR ANWAR RAFAY
MB;BS, MSC
[(EPIDEMIOLOGY AND BIOSTATISTICS)
THE AGA KHAN UNIVERSITY, KARACHI, PAKISTAN]
+92 333 347 5231
RAFAY.AKU.EPIBIO@GMAIL.COM
Dr Anwar Rafay is a medical doctor, having a specialization in Epidemiology and
Biostatistics (a Double Masters) from the Aga Khan University, Karachi. In a career spanning
over 14 years, Dr Rafay has worked as an Academician, Epidemiologist, Biostatistician, M&E
and Quality Management specialist in the public and private sectors and international
development agencies’ (World Bank, USAID, CIDA and recently DFID/UKAID) funded
projects.
Dr Rafay has also been involved at university-level teaching. He has conducted courses in
epidemiology and biostatistics at the Aga Khan University, the Baqai Medical University
[MPH], Dow Medical University, the University of Karachi [Clinical Psychology], Institues of
Behavioral Sciences and Anthropology and, lately, at Institute of Public Health, Lahore [MPH
& MPhil]. He has also been teaching research methodology coursework and qualitative and
quantitative techniques at the Institute of Business Administration (IBA, city campus),
Karachi. He has also conducted six-sigma black belt courses at the PIQC (Pakistan Institiute
of Quality Control). Dr Rafay has supervised a number of research projects, theses and
publications and attended a host of international conferences.
As an experienced epidemiologist, Dr Rafay has a track record in planning, design and
execution of public health projects and analysis of data for large scale peer-reviewed
studies. He possesses a skill set in quantitative (mainly linear, logistic and Cox’s regressions;
Survival Analysis and non-parametric analysis) and qualitative research methods, which are
rather crosscutting, bearing focus on operational, behavioral and biological research in
particular. Dr Rafay has managed projects related to Health Systems, Infectious Disease,
NCD and nutritional surveillance, public-health communication, MNCH & reproductive
health.
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Dr Rafay is married with two children and currently based in Lahore, Pakistan, but glad to
be relocated.
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Dr Rafay has a considerably long experience in designing and running health advocacy &
BCC campaigns at the highest executive and legislative levels in the federal and provincial
governments and legislatures. Putting up the pictorial warning on the cigarette pack in
tobacco control and promotion of breastfeeding among the neonates in flood hit areas were
some of the notable successes.
PRESENT PURSUIT

Currently serving as a Senior Consultant to Contech International and working on
RAF commissioned research, titled, “Development of Deployment Guidelines for
Community Midwives (CMWs) in Balochistan”, awarded to Contech International
Health Consultants.
PREVIOUSLY,
ASSISTANT PROFESSOR OF
EPIDEMIOLOGY & BIOSTATISTICS AT IPH, LAHORE
AUGUST 2011 – OCTOBER 2012
Following functions were specifically performed.

Teaching Post-graduate classes in Institute of Public Health, Lahore, in the
specialties of Epidemiology and Biostatistics [MPhil and MPH]

Analysis of Dengue data (disease and vector surveillance) and daily presentation in
the 7’o clock meetings to the honorable CM Punjab during the dengue epidemic in
2011

Developing recommendations for timely action (daily basis)

Supporting and coordinating between the Office of the Director General Health
Services, Punjab and Department of Health, Civil Secretariat, Lahore on dengue –
related activities.

Remained instrumentally involved in developing the vertical program on dengue and
other vector-borne diseases in Punjab.

Worked as a Pakistani counterpart with the epidemiologists of the Sri Lankan
Dengue Control that visited Lahore in 2011 and 2012

Serving on a host of committees, namely re-structuring of IPH, Vector Control
Committee, Infectious Disease Control Committee etc.
SIMULTANEOUSLY,
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DFID/AusAID funded Public Health Consultant for Nutrition mapping and scaling –
up Assignment: (Jan 2012 – Oct 2012)
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
Previously completed a mapping exercise on nutrition initiatives on the national level
and proposed a scale-up for selected initiatives expected to become cornerstone of
Provincial Nutrition Policies in the post 18th amendment scenario.

He has also served as Advisor to Punjab Information Technology Board (PITB), for
developing Disease Surveillance System Project (DSS) for the province of Punjab.
This core will be finally developed as service provision of health facilities making a
knowledge hub for the Ministry of Health and other relevant departments.
PUBLIC HEALTH CONSULTANT, DFID-FUNDED TAMA
(THROUGH CROWN AGENTS), ON THE INCEPTION OF THE
PUNJAB HEALTHCARE COMMISSION (PHC)
JAN 2011 – JULY 2011

The prime responsibility was building the process for registration and licensing of
the healthcare establishments: Developed & pre-tested the database-building
strategy for the Private Sector Hospitals in 02 districts of Punjab;

Developed a systematic review of literature and understanding the gaps and
impediments in the way to set-up a quality and safety assurance regulatory body.
The breakdown of the deliverables and activities run as follows:

Clinical Governance: Reviewed and adapted of the Minimum Service Delivery
Standards (MSDS) for the tertiary-care hospitals, developed sample M&E
tools/protocols for haemovigilance and TTIs for QA
Looking after the program activities of tobacco control (The Union, Tobacco Free
Kids & Bloomberg Grant Initiative), with the Tobacco Control Cell (TCC), MoH,
Islamabad

Advocacy with the parliamentarians regarding Pictorial Health Warnings (PHWs) on
the cigarette packs

interaction with the media from the national to the district level

interaction with the CBOs

conducting awareness sessions on the radio, with media and CBOs in seminars
The following epidemiological studies are conducted:
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3
NATIONAL ADVOCACY & RESEARCH CONSULTANT,
INTERNATIONAL UNION AGAINST TB AND LUNG DISEASES
FOR MANAGING BLOOMBERG GRANT INITIATIVE
PARTNERING WITH TOBACCO CONTROL CELL MOH
ISLAMABAD, (SINCE JUNE 2010 – SEP 2011)

Effects of the Pictorial Health Warnings on cigarette packs upon the buying behavior
of consumers in Rawalpindi and Islamabad, Pakistan (primary data)

The prevalence of smoking among the households of eighty four districts of Pakistan
(PSLM, 2007, secondary data)
CONSULTANT EPIDEMIOLOGIST,
NATIONAL AIDS CONTROL PROGRAM (NACP, SINDH CHAPTER)
ON THE WORLD BANK TA,
SEPTEMBER 2007- JUNE 2010

It was a national level position which provides policy support to the Provincial
Programs to help curb the HIV/AIDS menace in the country.

The surveillance comprised of active and passive components. Being the
Epidemiologist, Dr Rafay was responsible for setting up of HIV/AIDS surveillance
throughout the province and commissioning appropriate studies serving active
component. This included the Most at Risk People (MARP) and the bridging
populations visiting 46 STI clinics and 23 VCT Centers run by the Sindh Govt.
Hospitals throughout the Sindh province.

Dr Rafay was also the part of team developing a Unified National M&E framework
for the various implementing partners working in HIV/AIDS sector. The main
challenge was to bring about a consensus among the partner NGOs for generating
information on indicators of national and provincial, programmatic and academic
interest.

The responsibilities included, inter alia, a close interaction with the Health
Department, Govt. of Sindh, all relevant UN agencies, GFATM, City District
Governments & CCPO offices Karachi, Hyderabad, Sukkur, Larkana and all other
relevant government departments.

Also spearheaded the advocacy campaign among the Industrial Workers and
Business Leaders regarding HIV/AIDS awareness by bringing closer ties with the
Karachi Chamber of Commerce & Industry (KCCI) and the Sindh AIDS Control
Program (SACP)
M&E SPECIALIST (CONSULTANT),
EMPOWER PAKISTAN PROJECT (EPP), USAID
SHORT-TERM ASSIGNMENT
District Level Scorecards on healthcare delivery in the selected 23 districts of
Pakistan were developed. The input, process and output indicators were developed
and a subsequent pilot was conducted.
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AUGUST 2009 – NOVEMBER 2009

Worked under direct supervision of the Economic Growth Office, US Embassy in
Pakistan, Islamabad
ASSISTANT PROFESSOR OF EPIDEMIOLOGY & BIOSTATISTICS,
BAQAI MEDICAL UNIVERSITY, KARACHI
OCTOBER 2006 - AUGUST 2007

Simultaneously held three portfolios, namely, Assistant Professor of Epidemiology
and Head of Research in Public Health & Epidemiology at the Baqai Medical
University, Karachi

Taught epidemiology and biostatistics to post graduate [Masters in Public Health
(MPH)] and undergraduate classes.

Contributed to the development of MPH coursework and also served on the
undergraduate curriculum committee.
DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH CENTER & STATS CLINIC
AND
ADVISOR TO THE BAQAI VISION (INTEGRATED COMMUNITY
PROGRAMS), BAQAI MEDICAL UNIVERSITY, KARACHI
OCTOBER 2006 – AUGUST 2007

Looked after the RESEARCH CENTER & STATS CLINIC (brainchild of the author)
which was catering for the current public health and epidemiology research needs
(inclusive of support in grant writing, the study design, analysis, report writing and
publication) of the University. The Research Center was also an implementing
partner in CIDA (Canadian International Development Agency) funded initiative
called HASP (HIV/AIDS Surveillance Program) in Integrated Behavioral & Biological
Survey (IBBS) Round 2.

Evaluated the community programs addressing Women Development, Poverty
Alleviation, Health and Education running under Baqai Vision.

Responsible for the CME carried out at the Baqai Medical University
VARIOUS TEACHING AND TRAINING ASSIGNMENTS
Teaching assignment to undergraduates (MBBS) at the Aga Khan University during
academic session 2005-6 and later as Research Coordinator 2006-7
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5
MAY 2005 - ONGOING

Visiting Faculty at IBA, Karachi teaching research methodology, statistics and
conducting research projects 2008-2009

Visiting Faculty at SDPI (Sustainable Development Policy Institute), Islamabad (ongoing)

Visiting Faculty at Eye Department Dow University of Health Sciences/ Civil
Hospital, Karachi 2008-2010
BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT & QUALITY MANAGEMENT
CONSULTANT,
NOVARTIS PAKISTAN, CONSUMER HEALTH DIVISION
SEPTEMBER 2006 – AUGUST 2007

Conducting epidemiological studies: (Statistical modeling was done on three
studies),
o
To understand the health seeking behaviors of the patients visiting the GPs
o
To understand the practicing and prescribing patterns of General
Practitioners
o
To understand the factors influencing the sales of the company

Based on the findings of the above studies, evidence-based strategic interventions
were developed to increase the sales volume

Market Intelligence: By triangulating the data from IMS (International Medical
Statistics) sales and surveillance data on file to facilitate decision-making process
regarding resource allocation in marketing strategies.
MEDICAL ADVISOR, NOVARTIS CONSUMER HEALTH,
PAKISTAN 2000-2004
Worked as a Product Manager for a couple of years for Boeringer Mannhiem at their
head offices in Lahore. Joined Roche when Boeringer was taken over by the former.
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PRODUCT MANAGER, ROCHE 1995-2000
EDUCATION

2004-06: MSc (Epidemiology & Biostatistics), The Aga Khan
University

Jan-Jul 2008 Project Management Professional (PMP)
a six month coursework attendance from Pakistan Institute of Management, Karachi
campus

1993-1994: HOUSE OFFICE
Worked as House Officer in Medicine & Surgery at the Services Hospital, Lahore

1986–1993: MBBS
Allama Iqbal Medical College, Lahore
MASTER’S THESIS
KN O WL E DGE
AB OU T
AN D
MAN AG EMEN T
OF
SE XUA L L Y
IN F EC TI ON S BY G EN ER A L PR AC TI TI ON ER S OF K AR A CH I
TR AN SMI T TE D
The success in STI control is most likely to occur when the messages are launched from a fully
trained health provider in managing the STIs. But as the STI management is not taught as a part of
the coursework in the medical colleges of the country at the undergraduate level, it is highly unlikely
that the GPs would manage STI patients visiting them. In order to cater for this approaching public
health problem, it is imperative to assess the abilities of GPs for managing STIs.
The objectives of the study were to estimate the proportion of GPs who managed STI patients, to
determine the factors associated with whether or not the GP manages STI patients; to estimate the
proportion of GPs who appropriately managed three most prevalent STI syndromes namely Urethral
syndromes in their private practices in Karachi.
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and to determine the factors associated with whether or not the GP appropriately manages these STI
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Discharge Syndrome (UDS), Genital Ulcer Syndrome (GUS) and Vaginal Discharge Syndrome (VDS),
A cross sectional survey was conducted utilizing structured questionnaires to interview 518 general
practitioners of Karachi.
PUBLICATIONS
1.
D I E T C HA R T
This project was undertaken at Baqai Institute of Endocrinology and Diabetes, Baqai Medical
University. Its predictive values were recorded at AKU and tested in field.
(Rafay A, Masood Q, Basit A, sponsored by Roche Diagnostics, Jan 2006)
2.
White Paper on N A T I O N A L D R U G P O L I C Y O F P A K I S T A N
(Rafay A, Klara T, Miraz Z, Sponsored by WHO, commissioned by Ministry of Health, Government of
Pakistan, April 2007)
3.
Series of Lay Press Publications on MEDICAL NEGLIGENCE with a special focus on
pregnancy related deaths
I.
S E E K I N G J U S TI C E F R O M T HE G R A V E : A C A S E O F M E D I C A L N E G L I G E N C E
(Anwar Rafay, March 5, 2006, daily dawn .
h t t p : / / a r c h i v e s . d a w n . c o m/ w e e k l y / d ma g / a r c hi v e / 0 6 0 3 0 5 / d ma g 1 0 . ht m )
II.
4.
T HE C A U S E S O F M E D I C A L N E G L I G E N C E I N P A K I S T A N : A F O R M A TI V E S T U D Y
( R a f a y A , T h e N e t w o r k f o r C o n s u me r P r o t e c t i o n , D e c 2 0 0 6 )
E F F E C T S O F T H E P I C T O R I A L HE A L T H W A R N I N G S ( P HW S ) O N C I G A R E T TE P A C K S
U P O N T H E B U Y I N G B E HA V I O R O F S M O K E R S I N T H E T W I N C I T I E S O F R A W A L P I N D I
& ISLAMABAD
(a study jointly commissioned by the International Union Against TB & lung diseases AND Bloomberg
Grant Initiative through Tobacco Control Cell, Ministry of Health, Government of Pakistan, Islamabad,
Nov. 2010)
PHWs on the cigarette packs are used as an evidence-based intervention to modify the
buying behaviors of smokers the world over. Various modifications in behaviors have been
reported in contemporary literature. Such modifications also need to be reported from our
communities so that a further course of action regarding the smoking control should be
decided.
(Tobacco Control Cell, Ministry of Health, Government of Pakistan, Islamabad, Dec. 2010)
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T HE P R E V A L E N C E O F TO B A C C O U S E A M O N G T H E HO U S E HO L D S O F E I G H TY F O U R
D I S TR I C TS O F P A K I S TA N
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5.
The Pakistan Social and Living standard Measurement 2007-8 data was utilized. The
prevalence of tobacco use among the households was calculated in 108 districts of Pakistan.
The associated factors were also determined that explained the tobacco use among these
households. A set a modifiable factors was reported that can reduce the prevalence of
tobacco use among families if appropriately reduced.
6.
A S S E S S I N G I M P L E M E N TA TI O N S TA TU S O F T HE P R O T E C T I O N A N D P R O M O T I O N O F
B R E A S T F E E D I N G O R D I N A N C E , 2 0 0 2 I N F O U R HO S P I T A L S O F I S L A M A B A D &
R A W A L P I N D I – A C R O S S - S E C T I O N A L S TU D Y
(The Network for Consumer Protection, funded by UNICEF, Pakistan, August 2009)
7.
P R E V A L E N C E O F H I V A M O N G HI J R A S ( TR A N S E X U A L S ) A N D F A C T O R S A S S O C I A TE D
WITH THE SPREAD OF H IV INFECTION AMONG THEM IN LARKANA, PAKISTAN
(Rafay A, Zaheer HA, CIDA-sponsored HASP Round 2, National AIDS Control Program, Ministry of
Health, Government of Pakistan, Dec 2008)
The evidence does not support the direct transmission of HIV from IDUs (the driver of HIV
infection in Pakistan) to Hijras in Larkana as none of the known factors for transmission tip
in favor of this hypothesis. However, indirect transmission to hijras through their clients,
who may either be the clients of the positive IDUs or the clients infected from a different
source altogether (either local or foreign) needs to be ascertained thus warranting a fresh
study on the clients of Hijras and IDUs of Larkana. The existence of such a population is an
indication that the bridging population might have already been involved in the transmission
dynamics of HIV.
8.
I S P A K I S TA N I W O M A N I N D E P E N D E N T I N M A K I N G HE R B A S I C D E C I S I O N - M A K I N G ?
A D E S C R I P TI V E S TU D Y .
(Rafay A, The Network for Consumer Protection, funded by UNICEF, Pakistan, Sept 2010)
This study is based on the PSLM Round IV.2007-08 and depicts whether or not a Pakistani
woman is independent in making decisions regarding her education, paid work, marriage,
child bearing, contraception and its mode and procurement of consumption items e.g., food,
clothing, footwear, medical treatment, recreation etc. The heavy dependence of women upon
men in Pakistan led to a natural question of finding associated factors that could explain as
to why this happens but PSLM does not offer adequate variables to answer this question
9.
HI V / A I D S I N P A K I S TA N : W H E R E A R E T HE W O M E N ?
10. OP ER A TI ON S R ES EAR C H F OR PR O GR AM MA TIC P UR P O SE S
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This study shows that only twenty percent of the women are registered as compared to men.
Only 12% of the men have brought their spouses for testing and registration to the
treatment center whereas almost 100% women have brought their husbands instead. The
men still keep their wives ignorant of their HIV status
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(Rafay A, CIDA-sponsored HASP Round 2, Sindh AIDS Control Program, Ministry of Health,
Government of Pakistan, April 2009)
(Rafay A, Sindh AIDS Control Program, Ministry of Health, Government of Pakistan, June 2008)
Identification of gaps in the STI Clinics’ and VCT Centers’ performance in the provincewas
conducted. Also factors associated with patients’ satisfaction at the STI Clinics in Sindh were
determined.
11. STUDY ON CHILDHOOD DIARRHEA FOR INTERNAL USE/DATA FILE
(the project was funded by Ispen Beufore, France)
Study was conducted in the Civil Hospital Karachi by Dr. Iqbal Memon (PI), Professor of
Pediatrics, Dow University of Medical Sciences, Karachi, Pakistan and presented at Pakistan
Paediatric Association (PPA) annual congress at Quetta, August 2005. I conducted the
statistical analysis of the study
1 2 . M A P P I N G O F N U TR I TI O N I N I T I A T I V E S A N D P R O P O S I N G P R O G R A M C O M P O N E N TS
FOR UP-SCALING
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(Dure Samin Akram, Pervaiz Paracha, Ahsen Maqbool, Anwar Rafay. UKAID & AusAID
funded, Oct 2012)