7.2 Sampling Distribution of the Sampling Mean Reading Guide For a finite population, the sampling distribution of the sample mean is the ________________ from all possible samples of a _____________________. Shape, Center, Spread of the Sampling Distribution x If a random sample of size n is selected from the population with a mean ___ and a population __, then: the mean ____, of the sampling distribution of x equals the mean of the population ___: Formula: _____________________ The standard deviation, _____, of the sampling distribution x , sometimes called the standard error of the mean, equals the standard deviation of the population, ____, divided by the square root of the sample size n. Formula: _____________________ The shape of the sampling distribution will be _________________ if the population is approximately normal; for other populations, the sampling distribution becomes more ____________ as n increases. This is called the _____________________ Theorem. All three properties depend on the fact that the sample was selected _________________________. Note: Rules 1 and 2 come from the rules for combining independent random variables: x x x x ... x n x x ... x n x x ... x n x2 x2 ... x2 n n x x n n x2 n n x2 x2 x n2 n n Note: Rule 3 describes SHAPE: the distribution of x is normal or approximately normal when the population is normal or the sample is large. Note: Rule 3 says that n needs to be “sufficiently large.” But how large is large? It depends on the original population. If it is close to normal, n need not be large, but if it is very non-normal, n needs to be bigger. In general, the CLT can be applied if n > 20. 1 Using the Properties of the Sampling Distribution of the Mean 1. When can I use the property that the mean of a sampling distribution of the mean is equal to the mean of the population, x ? ___________________________________________________. 2. When can I use the property that the standard error of the sampling distribution of the mean, x n ? You can use this formula with a population of any shape and with any sample size as long as you randomly sample _______________________ OR you randomly sample without replacement and the sample size is less than _____ of the ________________. 3. I can only compute a probability using a z-score with I have an approximately normal distribution. When can I assume the sampling distribution is approximately normal? With __________________________ sample, the sampling distribution is approximately normal. If you are told the population is approximately normal, then the sampling distribution of the mean is ______________________, no matter what the sample size. If you are told the sample size if very large, it’s safe to assume that the sampling distribution of the mean is __________________________________. If you had a sample size of _____ or more, you could assume a distribution that is approximately normal. 4. Isn’t the size of the population really important? A random sample of 200 households would provide more information about a city of size 20,000 than a city of 2,000,000. Not really. As long as the sample is ________________________ and as long as the population is ___________________ than the sample, it doesn’t matter how large the population is. 2 Finding Probabilities using the Sample Mean Suppose that the weights of apples are approximately normally distributed with a mean of 200 grams and a standard deviation of 35 grams. a. What is the probability that if you choose one apple at random, its weight is at least 220 grams? Let x = weight ~ N(200, 35) P(x ≥ 220) = normalcdf(220,99999,200,35) = .2839 b. What is the probability that if you choose 25 apples at random, the average weight is at least 220 g? Since x ~ N, x ~ N(200, 35 ) 25 P( x ≥ 220) = normalcdf(220,9999,200,7) = .0021 (why is this smaller than part a?) c. What would you expect the range of weight to be for the apples chosen in a random sample of 25? Finding Probabilities involving Sample Totals Find the equivalent average, by dividing the total number by the sample size. Do as above. 3 4