Environmental Impact of Multi-Annual Drought in the Jordan Kinneret Watershed, Israel MOSHE INBAR * & HENDRIK J. BRUINS ** * Department of Geography, University of Haifa, Haifa, 31905, Israel **Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Blaustein Institute for Desert Research, Department Man in the Desert, Sede Boker Campus, 84990, Israel. Abstract Floods and droughts are most common among natural disasters, and the number of victims and economic damages are larger than those caused by other natural disasters like earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. The drought that affected Israel between 1998 and 2001 was of unusual climatic and hydrologic severity in the last 125 years in northern Israel. The climatic drought affected the water flow of the Jordan river and lake Kinneret level, which fell to –214.90m (below sea level), the lowest lake level in historical periods. The annual flow of the Jordan river in the drought period was the lowest in the 50 year hydrological record. Human interference by water pumping and diversion exacerbated the negative drought natural impact, causing land degradation such as the drying of wetlands and salinization of freshwater aquifers. The failure to introduce drought contingency planning and sustainable water resources management has so far affected agriculture and nature conservation. Introduction Floods and droughts are the most common in spatial terms among the diverse natural disasters. Moreover, they cause more victims and economic damage than earthquakes and volcanic eruptions (Inbar, 2001). Vulnerability to drought is increasing in many regions, as growing populations intensify the pressure on water resources. Prolonged droughts are a major factor in land degradation processes and they affect extensive geographical areas. As a natural hazard, drought may strike in any climatic region, but its occurrence is more frequent in regions with dry climate such as Israel (Bruins, 1993; Amiran, 1994). Drought is a normal, recurrent feature of climate, resulting from a deficiency of precipitation over an extended period of time, usually a season or more (Wilhite, 2000). Droughts build up gradually and passively as the cumulative effect of below average precipitation in a given area during a certain time period. Drought has both temporal and spatial dimensions, but boundaries may be fuzzy. Although the beginning and end of a drought is not always easy to determine, they have to be clearly defined (Wilhite and Glantz, 1985), in order to enable feasible management within an administrative governmental framework. The World Meteorological Organization defines a drought as a period of two consecutive years in which precipitation is less than 60% of normal in an area covering at least 50% of a geographical region (WMO, 1978). A definition of drought should be specific for each region in relation to its impact and management. 1 Droughts are among the most expensive disaster. The global economic losses from natural disasters increased from US$ 5 billion in the 1960s to more than US$ 50 billion in the last decade of the 20th century (Fig.1); (Munich Re, 2000). The 1988 drought in the western United States was the costliest natural disaster in US history for the time-range considered and its impact is likely to continue. During the 2002-growing season drought in Texas caused severe damage to agriculture, resulting in financial losses estimated at $316 million (Fannin, 2002). Natural drought is a prevailing hazard in the Near East (Bruins, 2000). The available resources of fresh water in Israel are rather small in comparison with most other countries in the Near East (Table 1). This study deals with the issue of drought in Israel in relation to land degradation and water resources management in the watershed of the Jordan River and Lake Kinneret. The effects of prolonged droughts in the Lake Kinneret watershed, which is by far the most important source of surface water in Israel, are examined. After some rainy years the public as well as decision-makers tend to forget the hazard of drought and the importance of assessing the effects of such major event. Background to Droughts in Israel The climate in Israel covers all the dryland zones – hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid and sub-humid (Unesco, 1979; Middleton and Thomas, 1992; Bruins and Berliner, 1998), as defined by the P/ETP index (P = precipitation and ETP = potential evapotranspiration). The average rainfall in the northern basin of the River Jordan is 700 mm and the potential evapotranspiration reaches 1600 mm; the P/ETP ratio is therefore 0.41, being in the semi-arid range. Only in the high mountainous areas of the Jordan River catchment rainfall is more than 800 mm and this region is sub-humid to humid ( Fig. 2). Interannual rainfall variations in the region are quite large, which is not surprising in view of Israel position at the northern transition of the largest planetary desert belt on Earth. In terms of economic losses droughts form a major component- about 30%- of natural disasters in Israel Floods did cause extensive damage during the period 1948-1998 (Inbar and Agami, 1998), but the direct and indirect costs of prolonged droughts in Israel during the period 1998-2001 can probably be regarded as the major natural disaster in recent years, affecting both its water resources and its agricultural economy. Meteorological conditions during drought periods in Israel are often characterised by a northward shift of the depression tracks and/or a decrease in the number of depression systems in the eastern Mediterranean region. These systems move generally from west to east over the Mediterranean Sea. The northward shifting of depression systems may be regarded as a symptom rather than a cause of the scarcity of precipitation in this region. The westward shifting in the atmosphere of the major upper level trough, on mean 500 mb charts, or its abnormal deepening leads to persistent dry and warm south-westerly upper flows which are the main reasons for the deflection of rain bearing depressions to the north-east (Levi, 1963). Drought in Israel is characterised by low precipitation in the winter rainy season. However, sometimes it does not cover the entire country. For example during the 1931/32 rainfall season, the average annual rainfall in the semi-arid to sub-humid centre and north of Israel was more than 20% below the average, while the Negev in the south received rainfall above the annual average amount (Ashbel, 1950). 2 Droughts in Israel during the last 150 years In the last 150 years, there have been three consecutive drought years for every 50 years period, according to the long term rainfall measurements series of Jerusalem (since 1846), Shechem-Nablus (since 1922), Beyrouth (since 1876), Kfar Gil’adi (since 1921) and other stations for recent periods of 50 to 60 years (Table 2). The average standard deviation was determined for consecutive multi-year drought (Figs. 3,4). The longest consecutive drought period was for six years from 1956/57 to 1961/62. An evaluation of rainfall variability in Israel was made in relation to drought (Bruins, 1999). According to Amiran (1994) the average rainfall in drought years is 30-40% less than the long-term average. The overall average rainfall in Jerusalem for the period 1846-1993 amounts to 556 mm. The three wettest years during this period occurred in 1873/74 (1004 mm), 1877/78 (1091 mm) and 1991/92 (1134 mm). The three driest years occurred in 1950/51 (247 mm), 1959/60 (206 mm) and 1962/63 (227 mm), as noted by Amiran (1994). Zangvil (1979) studied the Jerusalem rainfall record for the period 1846-1954. Applying a 10-year running mean, he distinguished a relatively wet period with above-average rainfall during 1868-1911 (690 mm) and a relatively dry period during 1912-1937 (412 mm). By evaluating individual precipitation years in relation to drought for Jerusalem during the period 1846-1993, Amiran (1994) distinguished six dry periods of three consecutive years or more in which at least one year shows a precipitation decline of more than 33% (Table 3). Hydrologic drought in Israel, analysing 14 different streams in the central and northern part of the country over the period 1937 to 1984, was studied by Ben-Zvi (1987). The principal variables are (1) severity in terms of decline in water flow, (2) duration of hydrologic drought and (3) geographic extent. Severe and extensive hydrologic drought in Israel occurred in 1950/51, 1958/59, 1972/73 and 1978/79. These droughts affected the majority of the 14 studied streams. Continuous multi-annual shortages in streams occurred during the periods 1955-1961 and 1971-1979, albeit with variations concerning the beginning and end of those periods with respect to the various streams. A third multi-annual hydrologic drought period during 1967-1972 was limited to a few streams in central Israel. The 1998-2001 drought period in the Upper Jordan watershed The most extreme meteorological drought in northern Israel during the last 125 years was in fact the most recent drought of 1998/99-2000/01. This can be concluded from the long-term rainfall series of Beirut (Lebanon) and all the rainfall stations in northern Israel (Table 2). The average standardized value or relative deviation (z score) was –1.30 or 64% of the average rainfall for the 3-year period, the highest value in the recorded period. The second most extreme period was during 1931/32-1933/34 with a standardized value of –1.05 (Table 4). The rainfall in 1998/99 as recorded in Kfar Gil’adi was very low with 431 mm, which is only 53% of the average annual rainfall. The mean annual volume of flow in the Jordan River is 399 x106 m3 and the standard deviation 142 x106 m3. The coefficient of variation is 0.26 ( Ben Zvi, 1987). An analysis of the Jordan River hydrological record shows that the 1999/2001 period was the lowest for a relatively prolonged period of three years (Table 5). The average 3 standardized value for that period was –1.43, an extreme value as compared with former prolonged drought years. For a single year the highest standardized value was – 1.62 for the 2000/2001 season or the last year of the period and not in the lowest rainfall year- 1998/1999. The lowering of the mountain water table during the three year period caused a reduction in the discharge of the springs that feed the river flow, and therefore the prolonged dry season caused the lowest water discharge at the end of the period. The impact of the extreme 1998-2001 drought on Lake Kinneret Lake Kinneret, the biblical Sea of Galilee, is a critical component of the integrated and centrally controlled water system of the Jordan River (Figs. 5,6). Lake Kinneret is situated in the Rift Valley and its water level at maximum capacity stands at -208.9 m (below sea level), above which flooding would occur in the town of Tiberias and other villages around the lake. The minimum acceptable level, the so-called red line, was set at -213 m. Pumping of water below that level might cause a severe deterioration in water quality of the lake, particularly in regards to salinity. The Kinneret watershed area is 2730 km2 of which the lake covers an area of 170 km2, with a maximum holding capacity of almost 4,100 million m3. Each meter represents ca. 170 million m3 of water. An average amount of 450 million m3 used to be pumped from the lake annually. The overflow into the Jordan River at the southern end of the lake is controlled by a sluice gate in order to keep the lake level at desired levels (Grinwald and Bibas, 1989). The main water diversion system of Israel is the National Water Carrier, completed in 1964, which draws annually about 300 million m3 of water from Lake Kinneret, eventually increasing to about 450 million m3 when the lake is full. In addition some 22 million m3 of saline water from springs are diverted around Lake Kinneret into the lower Jordan River. Following the peace treaty with the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, Israel now provides 50 million m3 of water yearly to Jordan from the lake sources. Lake Kinneret forms the pivotal part of the national water system, which also incorporates the Coastal Aquifer and Western Mountain Aquifer, and begins in the northwestern part of Lake Kinneret. The only natural surface water reservoir in Israel, lake Kinneret, serves as the yearly storage of water received in its basin during the rainy season. In 1991, after three consecutive drought years, the water level fell to -213 m below sea level. The exceptionally wet year that followed in 1991/92 refilled the lake to its maximum storage capacity of -208.9 m. But during the severe three-year drought of 1998-2001 the water level fell to -214.90 m, the lowest lake level in historic periods (Fig. 7). Low levels have negative impacts on nutrient release, and beach resorts and touristic sites find themselves several hundreds meters from the shoreline. Hence the relationship between water quantity in the lake and water quality is becoming increasingly more precarious. It should be pointed out that the natural salt content of Lake Kinneret in the past was about 400 mg/l (or ppm), which is above the accepted national standard and World Health Organization guideline of 250 mg/l. However, the diversion of saline water from springs discharging into the lake brought down the salinity to acceptable levels, between 205 to 230 mg/l, considered to be a remarkable achievement (Ministry of Agriculture, 1973; Grinwald and Bibas, 1989; Bruins, 1993). The combined effect of water pumping and drought led to a decline in lake levels. Salinity increased during low lake levels from 200 ppm of chlorides to 280 ppm. The Jordan river water flowing into the lake contains by comparison only 20 ppm of 4 chlorides. Although a salinity of 280 ppm chlorides can be tolerated for domestic and some agricultural uses, it is considered high for irrigation of citrus groves and subtropical fruits. Such irrigation water also causes soil degradation by increasing soil salinity. Partially treated domestic sewage water, also used in agriculture, has an even higher salinity content of about 400 ppm chlorides. The recent appearance of the blue toxic alga Aphanizomenon ovalisporum, previously unknown in the lake, may indicate deterioration of water quality (Hadas et al, 2002). Low levels of Lake Kinneret also have a negative impact on nutrients release from the lake bottom sediments. (Fig. 8). The impact on aquatic environments in Lake Kinneret watershed The effect of drought on protected aquatic environments seems critical. The total remaining wetlands in Israel are only 850 ha from a total of 28,000 ha at the beginning of the 20th century (Ortal, 1999). During recent droughts, most wetlands were affected by the decline in the underground water level and the reduction in water allocations due to the general shortage in the water resources. On the northern Kinneret shoreline, the lagoons on the Bteiha plain dried completely, with the lowering of the lake water level and groundwater in the adjacent areas. At high lake levels the total lagoon area of about 40 ha, is an essential fish breeding environment, as well as habitat for endemic aquatic species. A pilot restoration project involved the digging of a small area during the 2001 summer near the Meshushim River, one of the tributaries of Lake Kinneret, in order to study the feasibility of creating lagoons during prolonged water lake low level (Fig. 9). Most of the rivers draining into Lake Kinneret are ephemeral and the flow in the lower reaches is fed by small perennial springs. The deep entrenched canyons with scenic waterfalls and series of rapids and pools are nature reserves which receive certain water allocations during the dry season. Water reservoirs, built for irrigation in the Golan Heights, impound river water flow during major winter floods. The reduction in peak flows is accentuated in drought years when there is no overflow from the reservoirs. The pronounced effects downstream were reduced peak flows. A notable effect was an increase in channel and bank vegetation, as there was no cutting, trimming or clearing of vegetation (Inbar, 1990). The impact of droughts in Israel on water resources and land degradation The unique development in Israel of a government-controlled centralised water supply system has, paradoxically, not prevented over-utilisation of water resources. The area of irrigated land increased from 17,000 ha in 1948 to about 205,700 ha in 1990. Excessive quantities of water were sold to the agricultural sector, particularly during the 1970s and 1980s. Total water consumption in the 1980s and 1990s ranged from a high of 2,024 MCM in 1985 to a low of 1,442 MCM in 1991. The latter decrease in 1991, was caused by (1) severe drought, and (2) the rather sudden public realisation of the alarming state of Israel's dwindling water resources, following a report by the State Comptroller (1990). The authorities reacted by enforced cutbacks in water supply, particularly in the agricultural sector. Since extraction has been higher than natural and artificial recharge, water reserves in Lake Kinneret and in aquifers were gradually depleted. Against this background of over-exploitation, the impact of natural drought on land degradation has become increasingly severe for a series of reasons: 5 (1) Drought led to a severe decline in water levels in Lake Kinneret and the two main aquifers. (2) Reduced quantity of water causes deterioration of water quality, particularly characterised by a rise in salinity. (3) Use of more saline water leads to salinization of soils through irrigation. (4) During drought years, the urban sector continues to receive water and produces wastewater, while the agricultural sector uses significantly less conventional water. Increased use for irrigation of partially treated wastewater, with significantly higher salt content causes soil degradation. The multi-year meteorological drought in the late 1980’s caused water levels to drop below their respective red lines in Lake Kinneret and the two main aquifers. These red lines were defined to safeguard water resources, as extraction below this level might irreversibly endanger water quality. The underlying brackish water might mix with the overlying fresh water, if the latter becomes too shallow. The main problem of water management in Israel was political. Decision-makers did not pay too much attention to the alarming data from the Israel Hydrological Service. The latter body was lauded by the State Comptroller (1990) for its accurate reporting. Political leaders however were not moved to take action, and increased public awareness and media attention in 1991 caused a temporary shift in government policy. Water quotas were cut while water tariffs were increased. These measures reduced water consumption by the agricultural sector to pre-1958 levels, while the urban sector also used less water. Total consumption in 1991 was down to 1420 MCM, as compared to 2024 MCM in 1985 (Bruins, 1993, 1999). However, nothing was learned from the drought and water shortage crisis in 1989-1991 and no structural measures were taken, such as the necessary development of seawater desalination for the urban sector. So far no drought contingency planning has been introduced in Israel. Another severe drought began in 1998 and continued until 2001. The red line in Lake Kinneret was arbitrarily lowered by more than two meters from –213m to –215.5m to enable continued supply of water to the urban sector. The condition in the aquifers became worse than in 1989-1991. Following rapid population growth and declining water resources, the agricultural share of fresh water consumption in Israel was forced to decline from 81% in 1958 to 55% in 1998. Citrus orchards, mainly in the coastal plain, were abandoned. However, the increased consumption of urban water generates additional wastewater, which must be kept apart in separate systems to prevent groundwater pollution. The recycled wastewater is sold to the agricultural sector and increasingly replaces its diminishing share of fresh water. In 1999, 285 millions of m3 of sewage water, about 60% of the country total sewage effluents were recycled for irrigation (Table 6). Since wastewater is usually only partially treated, salts are not removed. Such irrigation with partly brackish recycled wastewater causes soil degradation. Conclusions The two multi-year drought periods in the last 13 years are either a fluctuation in a long-term range of cycles, or a climatic change towards a drier average. Both drought events were more extreme than any other in the last 125 years. Even if the close recurrence interval is a natural fluctuation, it may be a consequence of a global climate change. 6 Whether the impact of extreme droughts is irreversible remains a complex issue, linked to water resources management, especially in Israel which has a centralized water management system. Lake Kinneret basin, a vulnerable ecosystem where terrestrial, fluvial and lacustrine themes are involved, epitomizes many of the problems of water resource management which occur in other parts of the world on a broader but equally complex scale. The 1998-2001megadrought in the basin and the human induced stresses show the impact assessment of climate and human interactions. It is not yet clear whether the overpumping of the main water reservoirs during the last years has led to irreversible salinization processes in the aquifers and to negative ecological conditions in Lake Kinneret. The year 2002, one year after the extreme multi-annual drought, had a rainy season about 10% above the average. It did not result in any significant rise in the level of Lake Kinneret. Wetlands around the lake – officially recognized as nature reserves - were practically dry for 6 consecutive years. The pressure from the nature conservation lobby was unsuccessful in obtaining allocations of the required amounts of water. The Water Commissioner reduced water allocations for agriculture by 50%, and the prolonged water crisis brought many farmers to look for other income sources, thus reducing the total agricultural output. Water management in Israel provides both an example and a paradox in terms of efficiency. Far-reaching water laws place all the water resources in the hands of the State. All water produced and consumed must be metered. The institutional set-up of water management is comprehensive, while farmers are compelled to use water-saving irrigation techniques, in which Israel has become a world leader. The construction and functioning of the National Water Carrier System stands out as an important engineering achievement. The “only” problem is that in the development of an efficient water management at various user-levels the State could not protect itself against the internal functioning of its own apparatus. While long-term water extraction from the aquifers exceeded recharge, the State sold too much water over the years, particularly to the agricultural sector. There is clearly a need for a different institutional set-up, which places water affairs, drought contingency planning and crisis management above the various ministries and interested parties (Bruins, 2002). Otherwise, the impact of drought on water resources will steadily worsen, which in turn will lead to increased land degradation, particularly as a result of water and soil salinization. The failure by successive governments to introduce drought contingency planning and sustainable water resources management has already damaged agriculture and nature conservation. If water management is not changed for the better, it could lead to a major crisis in the nation’s water resources, affecting all sectors of society. Acknowledgements We are grateful to Noga Yoselevich for her help in the drawings and to Rachel Rabinowitz for providing the Kfar Gil’adi rainfall data . The manuscript was greatly improved by Professor Jacob Maos and a careful anonymous reviewer. References Amiran, D. 1994. Rainfall and Water Policy in Israel. The Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies, No. 55 (in Hebrew). 7 Ashbel, D. 1950. Bioclimatic Atlas of Israel and the Near East. The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 154 pp. Ben-Zvi, A. 1987. Indices of Hydrological Drought in Israel. Journal of Hydrology, 92, 179-191. Blitz, N., Schwartz, D. and Nussboim, Sh. 2000. Water in Israel-consumption and production. Water Authority, Ministry of Infrastructure, Tel Aviv (Hebrew) Bruins, H.J. 1993. Drought risk and water management in Israel: planning for the future. In D.A. Wilhite (ed.) Drought Assessment, Management and Planning: Theory and Case Studies. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston / Dordrecht / London, Chapter 8, pp. 133-155. Bruins, H.J. 1999. Drought Management and Water Supply Systems in Israel. In E. Cabrera and J. García-Serra (eds.) Drought Management Planning in Water Supply Systems. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht / Boston / London, pp. 299-321. Bruins, H.J. 2000. Drought hazards in Israel and Jordan: policy recommendations for disaster mitigation. In D.A. Wilhite (ed.) Drought: A Global Assessment. Volume II, Routledge, London, Hazards and Disasters Series, Chapter 42, pp. 178-193. Bruins, H.J. and Berliner, P.R. 1998. Bioclimatic Aridity, Climatic Variability, Drought and Desertification. In H.J. Bruins and H. Lithwick (eds.) The Arid Frontier - Interactive Management of Environment and Development. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht / Boston / London, Chapter 5, pp. 97-116. Fannin, B. 2002. Drought returns to Texas agriculture, resulting in $316 million in losses. AgNews, Texas A&M University Agriculture Program, June 12, 2002. http://agnews.tamu.edu/dailynews/stories/DRGHT/Jun1202a.htm. Grinwald, Z. and Bibas, M. 1989. Water in Israel. Tel Aviv: Ministry of Agriculture, Water Commission, Water Allocation Department. Hadas, O., R.Pinkas, N.Malinsky-Rushansky, G.Shalev-Alon, E. Delphine, T.Berner, A.Sukenik and A.Kaplan. 2002. Physiological variables determined under laboratory conditions may explain the bloom of Aphanizomenon ovalisporum in Lake Kinneret. European J. of Phycology 37: 259-267 Inbar, M. 1990: Effects of dams on mountainous rivers. Physical Geography, 11,4: 305-319 Inbar, M. 2001: Natural disasters in a geographical realm. In: J.L. Palacio-Prieto and M.T. Sanchez Salazar (eds.): Geography for the Third Millenium, UNAM, Mexico, 77-83. Inbar, M. and Agami, E. 1998. Natural Hazards in Israel, 1948-1998, a Temporal and Spatial Analysis. Israel Geological Society Annual Meeting, Mitzpe Ramon, p.59 8 Levi, W.M. 1963. The Dry Winter of 1962/63: a Synoptic Analysis. Israel Exploration Journal 13(3): 229-241. Middleton,N and Thomas, D.1992. World Atlas of Desertification. Arnold, London . Ministry of Agriculture, 1973. Israel's WaterEconomy. Tel Aviv: Ministry of Agriculture, Water Commission. Munich Re Group, 2000. Topics 1999. Annual review of Natural Catastrophes. Munich, 46 pp. Ortal, R., 1999. Management and restoration of wetlands in Israel. Reserve Nature Authority, Jerusalem. (in Hebrew) Soffer, A. 1999. Rivers of Fire. Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Lanham, Boulder. State Comptroller 1990. Report on the Management of Water Resources in Israel. State Comptroller, Jerusalem. UNESCO 1979. Map of the world distribution of arid regions. Explanatory note. Paris: Unesco, Man and the Biosphere (MAB) Technical Notes 7. Wilhite, D.A. (ed.) 2000. Drought: A Global Assessment, Volume I & II, Routledge, London, Hazards and Disasters Series. Wilhite, D.A. and Glantz, M.H. 1985. Understanding the drought phenomenon: The role of definitions. Water International 10:111-120. Zangvil, A. 1979. Temporal fluctuations of seasonal precipitation in Jerusalem. Tellus 31, 413-420 Captions to Tables Table 1. Relation between population and average sustainable yield of fresh water in the Near East (Adapted from World Population and Soffer, 1999) Table 2: Long term annual rainfall data for Kfar Gil’adi station (1877-2001). * Synthetic data based on proxy stations from 1877 until 1921. See fig 2 for location. Elevation- 350m Table 3. Drought periods of three or more consecutive years, having at least one year with a drop in precipitation of 33% or more, based on Jerusalem rainfall records for the period 1846-1993 ( After Amiran, 1994) 9 Table 4: Drought prolonged events in northern Israel (Kfar Gil’adi station) for the period 1877-2002 and standardized values (zi=xi-μ/SD deviation values. Shaded figures indicate consecutive rainy and dry years. Table 5: Jordan river water flow during drought periods (Northern st.) and standard deviation values for the period 1957-2001. Table 6: Agricultural water consumption in Israel. 1993-2002 (Adapted from Blitz et al, 2000) Captions to Figures Fig.1: Economic losses for natural disasters in the world:1950-1999( After Munich Re, 2000) Fig. 2: Lake Kinneret watershed and location map. Mean annual isohyets, monthly mean rainfall distribution in Kfar Gil’adi and monthly averages of the Jordan river water flow at the northern Jordan station. Fig. 3: Annual rainfall at Kfar Gil’adi for the period 1922-2001. Rainfall years are for the winter season, starting 1922/1923. Fig. 4: Standardized values (Relative Deviation) or z score ( zi= xi- μ/SD)- Kfar Gil’adi for the period 1922-2001 Fig. 5: Lake Kinneret, a natural water reservoir provides about 30% of the water resources of Israel. Fig. 6: The northern Jordan river, before entering Lake Kinneret, during a winter high discharge flow. Fig. 7: Lake Kinneret level for the period 1993-2002. The extreme drought period of 1998-2001 lowered the level to 214.9 m below sea level, the lowest level known by measurements since the end of the 19th century. The “red line” or minimum level was – 213m but recently was lowered to –215.5m. Fig. 8: Lake Kinneret beach during low level. Continuous dry years enhance vegetation development in the lake shores. The historic lake high level is about –209m. Vegetation line on the right side of the photograph marks the historic level Fig. 9: A restored coastal lagoon in the Bethsaida plain, at the northern edge of the lake. TABLE 1 Population (million) Turkey Syria Lebanon Israel 67 17 3.7 6.2 Renewable Fresh Water (million cubic meter per year) 105,000 10,500 3,700 1,600 Fresh Water per Capita (million cubic meter per year) 1,567 610 1,000 258 10 Jordan Egypt 5.3 71 750 60,000 140 845 TABLE 2 1877-1900 1900-1930 1930-1960 1960-1990 1990-2001 Kfar Gil'adi- Annual precipitation (mm) 693 703 759 807 741 Drought years in 30 years periods (std) 1877 - 1900 : 1900 - 1930 : -0.94 1930 - 1960 : (1887,1888,1889,1890) no drought (1932,1933,1934 ) (1957,1958,1959,1960,1961,1962) 1960 - 1990 : (1989, 1990, 1991) -0.84 1990 - 2003 : (1999,2000,2001) -1.30 Standardized value Average -1.05 -0.75 Synthetic Measured All data 138.6 683.3 189.1 760.3 192.2 747.8 11 TABLE 3 Drought period of three years or more 1869/70-1872/73 1898/99-1901/02 1922/23-1935/36 1945/46-1954/55 1957/58-1962/63 1983/84-1985/86 Number of Consecutive Years 4 4 14 10 6 3 Average rainfall decline (%) -21 -16 -27 -14 -37 -22 Driest year in this period 1869/70 1900/01 1932/33 1950/51 1959/60 1985/86 Largest rainfall decline (%) -43 -39 -53 -55 -63 -33 TABLE 4 Year 1877 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 K.Giladi St.Dev 1.71 919 1.85 938 -2.20 379 0.86 801 -0.50 613 0.42 741 0.39 737 1.61 905 -1.09 532 0.16 705 -1.33 500 -0.05 676 -0.84 567 -1.55 470 0.97 816 -0.02 680 1.46 885 0.17 706 -1.08 534 0.54 757 1.15 842 -0.80 573 -0.58 603 0.44 743 -1.44 485 -1.20 518 0.94 813 -1.03 541 0.95 814 -0.01 681 0.02 686 -0.72 584 -0.49 615 0.97 816 0.87 803 0.19 710 0.66 774 0.22 713 0.02 686 -0.26 647 -0.33 637 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 696 829 722 360 801 769 803 473 800 896 665 1148 553 826 613 340 733 1068 668 811 1016 743 870 827 862 1029 733 1014 665 610 749 1072 695 415 924 827 925 528 946 723 685 590 0.10 1.06 0.28 -2.34 0.86 0.05 0.23 -1.52 0.21 0.72 -0.50 2.05 -1.10 0.35 -0.78 -2.22 -0.14 1.63 -0.49 0.27 1.35 -0.09 0.58 0.35 0.54 1.42 -0.14 1.34 -0.50 -0.79 -0.06 1.65 -0.34 -1.83 0.87 0.35 0.87 -1.23 0.98 -0.20 -0.40 -0.90 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 478 632 602 816 861 827 628 948 872 1359 712 944 736 536 963 717 942 906 910 471 1013 1070 598 966 762 793 554 1129 1100 555 621 625 1410 841 525 890 737 770 910 431 608 520 -1.49 -0.68 -0.84 0.29 0.53 0.35 -0.70 0.99 0.59 3.17 -0.25 0.98 -0.13 -1.19 1.07 -0.23 0.96 0.77 0.79 -1.53 1.34 1.64 -0.86 1.09 0.01 0.18 -1.09 1.95 1.80 -1.08 -0.73 -0.72 3.44 0.43 -1.24 0.69 -0.12 0.05 0.79 -1.74 12 -0.80 -1.27 TABLE 5 Year Q (106 m3) Std. value 1988/89 267 -0.93 1989/90 183 -1.52 1990/91 232 -1.18 1998/99 201 -1.39 1999/00 215 -1.30 2000/01 169 -1.62 Table 6 Year 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Total 1762.4 1813.0 1981.0 2012.7 2007.8 2165.8 Agriculture Fresh water 1125.0 846.4 1143.6 841.4 1273.8 896.8 1284.3 892.3 1263.8 854.1 1364.9 918.3 1204.6 824.3 1137.4 729.1 1021.9 563.1 1007.0 540.0 Sewage 199.7 219.3 250.0 270.0 255.4 271.0 285.0 260.0 265.0 287.0 Brackish and Floods Industrial Domestic 79.3 110.0 527.0 82.9 113.9 555.5 127.0 119.4 588.1 122.0 124.4 604.0 154.3 122.8 621.2 175.6 129.2 671.7 155.3 148.3 193.8 180.0 13