Journal of Biogeography SUPPORTING INFORMATION A continent-wide study reveals clear relationships between regional abiotic conditions and post-dispersal seed predation John L. Orrock, Elizabeth T. Borer, Lars A. Brudvig, Jennifer Firn, Andrew S. MacDougall, Brett A. Melbourne, Louie H. Yang, Dirk V. Baker, Avi Bar-Massada, Michael J. Crawley, Ellen I. Damschen, Kendi F. Davies, Daniel S. Gruner, Adam D. Kay, Eric Lind, Rebecca L. McCulley and Eric W. Seabloom Appendix S1 Study data and additional details on study sites, methods, ancillary seed-removal trials and supporting results. Additional information about climatic data Data used in this study are listed in Table S1. The strong significant relationships between mean annual precipitation from WorldClim, from historical data used to calculate annual actual evapotranspiration (AET) and from average site precipitation data from 2008 to 2010, suggested that WorldClim and weather station data were excellent proxies for conditions at each site (all r ≥ 0.72, P ≤ 0.018); sources of these data are described in the main text. Similarly, mean annual precipitation and temperature from WorldClim were significantly correlated with weather station data collected during 2009, the year of the study (all r ≥ 0.72, P ≤ 0.018), and AET calculated using long-term data and 2009 data were in very close agreement (r = 0.96, P ≤ 0.001). Pairwise correlations among climate variables across the 11 sites can be found in Table S2. We also examined the relationship between total average aboveground biomass collected at each site in 2007, 2008, 2009 (for details on biomass collection, see O’Halloran et al., 2013), aboveground biomass collected during only 2009, and the climatic variables used in our 1 analyses, including AET (calculated using long-term data, as described in the main text); for the Boulder (Colorado, USA) site, only 2008 and 2009 data were available. When data from all sites were used, there was no significant relationship between biomass and long-term AET, biomass and mean annual precipitation, or any of the other climatic variables that were calculated using long-term data (Table S2). However, upon closer inspection of the data, we suspected that herbaceous biomass from one of our sites (a longleaf pine savanna) might not be expected to respond directly to AET and precipitation, as scattered mature longleaf pine trees (Pinus palustris Miller) might intercept light energy and precipitation before it can be used by understorey vegetation. Examination of the data without using that site (i.e. using 10 total sites) supported this hypothesis, as there was a significant relationship between AET, mean annual precipitation and biomass when that site was excluded (Table S3). Importantly, there was also a significant relationship between local biomass production and seed removal in that analysis (Table S3), further suggesting that the link between seed removal and large-scale climatic data in grassland ecosystems is often mediated by local herbaceous plant production. Additional details on seed-removal depots Removal depots were based on a modified version of the protocol used in Moles et al. (2003). During seed placement in removal depots, surface litter and vegetation (where necessary) were gently displaced to allow placement of the seeds on the soil surface. When possible, seeds were placed in natural depressions where they occurred, to minimize wind or rain removal (although rain events were rarely observed during the study). Depots were marked with a toothpick within 2 cm of the depot and by placing a larger marker (e.g. a pin flag or flagging tape) within 30 cm of the depot. Viability of heat-treated seeds Viability assays using tetrazolium (Hahn & Orrock, 2014) indicated that Avena sativa seeds heated for 15 min at 150 °C were not viable compared with control seeds that were left at room temperature (24 °C) for 15 min (five replicates of 10 seeds per temperature level). Zero seeds were viable after being heated to 150 °C, whereas the proportion of viable seeds from the 24 °C 2 treatment was 0.92 ± 0.06 (binomial generalized linear model, deviance = 94.46, 1 d.f., P < 0.001); for additional information regarding methods, see Hahn & Orrock (2014). Removal of heat-treated seeds and seeds of other species We conducted three separate follow-up experiments to determine whether or not removal of heat-treated A. sativa seeds was indicative of removal of other seed species, and to ensure that heat-treated seeds were removed at similar rates compared with non-treated seeds. At three of the study locations, removals of additional species were conducted at the same time as A. sativa removals were conducted, using identical protocols. The sites (locations and species used in parentheses) were: Cowichan (British Columbia, Canada; Danthonia californica Bolander), Hall’s Prairie (Kentucky, USA; Andropogon gerardii Vitman) and Spindletop (Kentucky, USA; Dactylis glomerata L.). Data were pooled within an experimental plot and evaluated using a paired t-test to compare removal of Avena sativa and removal of the additional species. There was no difference between removal of A. sativa and the other species when all three sites were pooled (t = 1.13 P = 0.24, d.f. = 8). Similarly, there was no difference between A. sativa removal and the other seed species when the data were analysed by site and species: Danthonia californica (t = –1.00, P = 0.42, d.f. = 2), Andropogon gerardii (t = 1.66, P = 0.24, d.f. = 2), Dactylis glomerata (t = 0.023, P = 0.84, d.f. = 2). These removals provided strong evidence, from the same locations and times where Avena sativa removal was assessed, that removal of A. sativa provides useful information regarding granivory pressure on other species. To determine whether heating affected removal of A. sativa, we established 10 paired depots at one of our research areas where removal rates were relatively high (Savannah River Site, South Carolina, USA). At each pair of depots, a depot of five unheated seeds was separated by less than a metre from a depot of five heated seeds. Seeds were deployed for 2 days (2–4 November 2011), identical to the other seed-removal trials used in this experiment. This work confirmed that the removal of heated seeds was highly correlated with the removal of unheated seeds (r = 0.77, P < 0.01, d.f. = 8). 3 Removal of heat-treated seeds was also assessed in an ancillary seed-removal experiment in a restored prairie in Madison (Wisconsin, USA); this experiment provided an opportunity to assess how removal of A. sativa is related to the removal of other species. Fourteen seed-removal depots consisting of translucent plastic buckets (for a description of depots, see Mattos et al., 2013) were established with 1 L of sand and 10 seeds each of A. sativa and five additional species that varied significantly in size: Andropogon gerardii (seed mass = 2.63 ± 0.08 mg, n = 5 samples of 10 seeds each), Asclepias syriaca L. (4.52 ± 0.19 mg), Schizachyrium scoparium Michaux (1.03 ± 0.04 mg), Silphium terebinthinaceum Jacq. (16.72 ± 0.22 mg) and Sorghastrum nutans Nash (1.80 ± 0.04 mg). Seven of the depots had Avena sativa seeds that were heat-treated (37.17 ± 3.18 mg) while seven depots used A. sativa seeds that were not heat-treated (32.46 ± 1.82 mg). Depots were placed in the field for 7 days, 1–8 November 2012. There was no significant difference in removal of A. sativa seeds by heat treatment (t-test, t =1.04, P = 0.32, d.f. = 12). Moreover, there was a significant positive relationship between the number of A. sativa seeds removed and the number of seeds removed of Andropogon gerardii (r = 0.89, P < 0.001, d.f. = 12), Asclepias syriaca (r = 0.94, P < 0.001, d.f. = 12), Schizachyrium scoparium (r = 0.73, P = 0.003, d.f. = 12), Silphium terebinthinaceum (r = 0.94, P < 0.001, d.f. = 12) and Sorghastrum nutans (r = 0.65, P = 0.01, d.f. = 12). These results suggested that removal of Avena sativa seeds was also indicative of the removal rates of seeds of native prairie species across a substantial range of seed masses. 4 REFERENCES Borer, E.T., Harpole, W.S., Adler, P.B., Lind, E.M., Orrock, J.L., Seabloom, E.W. & Smith, M.D. (2014) Finding generality in ecology: a model for globally distributed experiments. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 5, 65–73. Hahn, P.G. & Orrock, J.L. (2014) Effects of temperature on seed viability of six Ozark glade species and eastern redcedar (Juniperus virginiana). American Midland Naturalist, 171, 147–152. Mattos, K.J., Orrock, J.L. & Watling, J.I. (2013) Rodent granivores generate context-specific seed removal in invaded and uninvaded habitats. American Midland Naturalist, 169, 168– 178. Moles, A.T., Warton, D.I. & Westoby, M. (2003) Do small-seeded species have higher survival through seed predation than large-seeded species? Ecology, 84, 3148–3161. Nakagawa, S. & Schielzeth, H. (2013) A general and simple method for obtaining R2 from generalized linear mixed-effects models. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 4, 133–142. O’Halloran, L.R., Borer, E.T., Seabloom, E.W. et al. (2013) Regional contingencies in the relationship between aboveground biomass and litter in the world's grasslands. PLoS ONE, 8, e54988. 5 Table S1 Data used for a continent-wide study of the relationships between regional abiotic conditions and post-dispersal seed predation. The site at Cedar Creek is a Long-term Ecological Research site (LTER). The study sites at McLaughlin (California, USA) and Sagehen (California, USA) are part of the University of California Natural Reserve System (UCNRS). The sites at Hopland (California, USA) and Sierra Foothills (California, USA) are University of California Research and Extension Centers (REC). Site name (location) Latitude Longitude Elevation (m) Mean annual precipitation (mm) Mean annual temperature (°C) Annual actual evapotranspiration (mm) Annual temperature range Intra-annual variation in mean annual precipitation (CV) Inter-annual variation in mean annual precipitation (CV) Proportion of seeds removed (logit transformed) Boulder (Colorado, USA) Cedar Creek LTER (Minnesota, USA) Cowichan (British Columbia, Canada) Hall’s Prairie (Kentucky, USA) Hopland REC (California, USA) McLaughlin UCNRS (California, USA) Sagehen UCNRS (California, USA) Savannah River (South Carolina, USA) Sierra Foothills REC (California, USA) Spindletop (Kentucky, USA) Tyson (Missouri, USA) 39.972 45.401 48.460 36.872 39.013 38.864 39.430 33.344 39.236 38.136 38.519 –105.234 –93.201 –123.380 –86.729 –123.067 –122.400 –120.240 –81.651 –121.280 –84.501 –90.565 1633 270 50 193.6 598 642 1920 71 197 271 169 425 750 764 1282 1127 867 882 1194 935 1140 997 9.7 6.3 9.8 13.6 12.3 13.5 5.7 17.3 15.6 12.5 12.5 506.22 602.06 497.03 759.84 473.36 405.37 345.631 910.24 440.42 728.05 716.40 38.5 45.6 18.5 36.3 31.0 32.2 35.4 32.8 32.6 35.6 39.4 42 51 64 14 87 88 69 19 84 15 18 1.663 2.130 3.304 2.167 2.445 1.965 2.558 4.018 2.718 3.119 3.102 –1.708 –0.523 –1.708 1.437 –1.708 –1.267 –1.041 0.998 –1.398 0.531 0.084 6 Site name (location) Mean aboveground biomass 2009 (g m–2) Mean aboveground biomass 2007–2009 (g m–2) Boulder (Colorado, USA) Cedar Creek LTER (Minnesota, USA) Cowichan (British Columbia, Canada) Hall’s Prairie (Kentucky, USA) Hopland REC (California, USA) McLaughlin UCNRS (California, USA) Sagehen UCNRS (California, USA) Savannah River (South Carolina, USA) Sierra Foothills REC (California, USA) Spindletop (Kentucky, USA) Tyson (Missouri, USA) 243 59 334 650 332 460 107 78 314 402 431 213 134 343 715 202 319 122 95 204 417 470 7 Table S2 Pearson’s correlation values among the climatic variables tested, the dependent variable proportion of seeds removed (logit transformed) and local site biotic variables. The proportion (prop.) of seeds removed (rem.) was logit-transformed. Lat., latitude; long., longitude; MAP, mean annual precipitation; MAT, mean annual temperature; AET, annual actual evapotranspiration; ann. temp. range, annual temperature range; intra-annual MAP CV, coefficient of variation in within-year mean annual precipitation; inter-annual MAP CV, between-year coefficient of variation in between-year mean annual precipitation; elev., elevation; mean AG biom. 2009, mean aboveground biomass taken from each site in 2009; mean AG biom. 2007–2009, mean aboveground biomass taken from each site from sampling areas in 2007, 2008 and 2009 (except Colorado, where data are from 2008 and 2009). Bold is used to highlight the matrix diagonal. Variables Prop. seeds removed (logit) Latitude Longitude MAP MAT AET Ann. temp. range Intra-annual MAP CV Inter-annual MAP CV Elevation Mean AG biom. 2009 Mean AG biom. 2007–2009 Prop. Seeds rem. (logit) 1.00 –0.56† 0.88*** 0.70* 0.38 0.86*** 0.34 –0.84** –0.40 –0.43 0.24 0.49 Lat. Long. MAP MAT AET Ann. temp. range Intraannual MAP CV – 1.00 –0.430 – – 1.00 0.39 0.24 – – – 1.00 0.57† 0.54† –0.07 –0.33 –0.03 – – – – 1.00 0.48 –0.24 –0.19 0.23 – – – – – 1.00 0.23 – – – – – – – – – – – – 1.00 –0.52† 0.38 0.33 –0.57† 0.38 0.36 –0.58† 0.10 0.33 –0.58† –0.65* –0.45 –0.27 0.36 –0.10 –0.04 –0.15 –0.11 0.92*** 0.53† –0.94*** –0.54† –0.36 0.03 0.27 –0.88*** –0.50 1.00 –0.35 –0.14 0.20 –0.19 –0.22 0.58† 0.27 –0.16 –0.40 Interannual MAP CV – – – – – – – – 1.00 0.11 –0.10 –0.44 Elev. Mean AG biom. 2009 – – – – – – – – – 1.00 –0.31 –0.49 – – – – – – – – – – 1.00 0.91*** Mean AG biom. 2007– 2009 – – – – – – – – – – – 1.00 †P 0.10, *P 0.05, **P 0.01, ***P 0.001. 8 Table S3 Pearson’s correlation values among the climatic variables tested, the dependent variable proportion of seeds removed (logit transformed) and local site biotic variables. Data from a longleaf pine savannah grassland (Savannah River Site, SC) were not includes in the analysis. The proportion (prop.) of seeds removed (rem.) was logit-transformed. Lat., latitude; long., longitude; MAP, mean annual precipitation; MAT, mean annual temperature; AET, annual actual evapotranspiration; ann. temp. range, annual temperature range; intra-annual MAP CV, coefficient of variation in within-year mean annual precipitation; inter-annual MAP CV, between-year coefficient of variation in between-year mean annual precipitation; elev., elevation; mean AG biom. 2009, mean aboveground biomass taken from each site in 2009; mean AG biom. 2007-2009, mean aboveground biomass taken from each site from sampling areas in 2007, 2008, and 2009 (except Colorado, where data are from 2008 and 2009). Bold is used to highlight the matrix diagonal. Variables Prop. seeds removed (logit) Latitude Longitude MAP MAT AET Ann. temp. range Intra-annual MAP CV Inter-annual MAP CV Elevation Mean AG biom. 2009 Mean AG biom. 2007–2009 Prop. Seeds rem. (logit) Lat. Long. MAP MAT AET 1.00 –0.43 0.86** 0.65* 0.20 0.83** 0.42 –0.82** –0.39 –0.37 0.53 0.78** – 1.00 –0.26 –0.51 –0.51 –0.19 –0.36 0.23 –0.20 –0.21 –0.49 –0.35 – – 1.00 0.29 0.02 0.92*** 0.63* –0.93*** –0.54 –0.29 0.27 0.57† – – – 1.00 0.49 0.45 –0.05 –0.25 –0.01 –0.48 0.61† 0.60† – – – – 1.00 0.24 –0.24 –0.01 0.35 –0.53 0.78** 0.52 – – – – – 1.00 0.35 –0.90*** –0.54 –0.56† 0.51 0.71* Ann. temp. range – – – – – 1.00 –0.41 –0.16 0.19 –0.25 –0.07 Intraannual MAP CV Interannual MAP CV Elev. Mean AG biom. 2009 – – – – – – – 1.00 0.58† 0.21 –0.36 –0.68* – – – – – – – – 1.00 0.08 –0.17 –0.40 – – – – – – – – – 1.00 –0.48 –0.50 – – – – – – – – – – 1.00 0.90*** Mean AG biom. 2007– 2009 – – – – – – – – – – – 1.00 †P 0.10, *P 0.05, **P 0.01, ***P 0.001. 9 Table S4 Summary of the top generalized linear mixed models (binomial distribution) for describing the proportion of seeds removed [all models are within four AICc units of the best model] when using climate variables calculated using 2009 data from each site. Models are ordered starting with the best-fitting model (i.e. the lowest AICc). Values of R2C represent the conditional coefficient of determination (which includes only fixed effects); values of R2M represent the marginal coefficient of determination (which includes both fixed and random effects), as described in Nakagawa & Schielzeth (2013). Model parameters Independent variables Estimate (± SE) zvalue P-value AICc AICc weight R2M R2C Annual precipitation 0.008 ± 0.001 5.85 < 0.001 64.82 0.64 0.64 0.78 Annual precipitation 0.008 ± 0.001 6.10 < 0.001 67.00 0.22 0.68 0.78 Annual temperature range 0.148 ± 0.091 1.62 0.106 Annual actual evapotranspiration 0.017 ± 0.003 5.58 < 0.001 67.79 0.14 0.63 0.77 AICc, Akaike information criterion corrected for small sample size. 10 Figure S1 Diagram of a typical Nutrient Network site (Borer et al., 2014). (a) Sites contained between two and four replicate blocks (Blk). (b) Each block contained ten 5 m × 5 m plots, with each plot receiving a factorial combination of nutrient treatments and two plots receiving a fencing treatment to manipulate consumer pressure. Only control plots were used in this experiment (i.e. plots without any nutrient additions or fencing treatment). Seed-removal depots were placed within each plot in the areas indicated by an ‘X’. 11 Figure S2 The 11 study sites across North America (see Fig. 1) captured a strong longitudinal Ann. actual evapotrans. (mm) gradient in annual actual evapotranspiration (F1,9 = 51.15, r2 = 0.85, P < 0.001). 900 800 700 600 500 400 -120 -110 -100 -90 -80 Longitude 12 Figure S3 Correlograms for the five top models as ranked by AICc; see Table 1. Open circles indicate that the value was not significant (two-tailed test, alpha = 0.05) using a permutation test with 1000 replications. Closed circles indicate a value that was significant. 13 14