Common Country Assessment
Pakistan
2011
Authors: Dr. Syed Aamer Abdullah
Prof. Syed Mansoob Murshed
Dr. Arshad Waheed
Dr. Farrukh Saleem
Victoria Jane Lee
Akbar Nasir Khan
Rehana Shaikh
Dr. Moazzam Khalil
31 January 2012
1
Disclaimer
The views expressed in this Common Country Assessment are those of the authors
and do not necessarily represent those of the United Nations or the United Nations
system in Pakistan or any of its agencies.
2
Acknowledgments
The authors thank all those who have contributed to this report.
The participants of the stakeholder workshops at Islamabad, Karachi, Lahore, Quetta, Peshawar and
Muzaffarabad gave their valuable input to the initial draft of this report. Participants at Karachi and
Quetta made it to the consultative session despite great hardships and their participation and feedback are
gratefully acknowledged.
The support team comprising Mr. Syed Saad Abdullah, Ms. Bazgha Amjad, Mr. Talha Masood and Mr.
Shahzad Ali Gill helped the authors to forget about management issues and concentrate on the report
itself. We thank them all.
The members of the Steering and Technical committees of the UN in Pakistan gave their valuable
comments on the draft and participated in marathon discussion sessions. The UN Country Team shared its
expertise and guidance, and the authors thank them all.
The Office of the Resident Coordinator of UN in Pakistan gave its extensive support to the process. Data,
reports and feedback were provided to the team. Dr. Arjuna Parakrama, Mr. Waheed Lor-Mehdibadi and
Ms. Shirin Gul deserve our special praise and thanks.
We thank Mr. Timo Pakkala, the Resident Coordinator of UN in Pakistan for his keen interest, support
and guidance throughout the process.
3
List of Acronyms
ADB
ADR
ADO
AF
AJK
BTI
CAT
CCA
CCP
CEDAW
CNIC
CPI
CPI
CPR
CRC
CSOs
DOT
DRR
ECP
EFA
EEA
EmONC
FAFEN
FAO
FATA
FBS
FDPF
FIR
FY07
FY08
GBV
GCI
GDP
GER
GPI
HBWs
HDI
HRCP
HFs
HRBA
IBGs
ICCPR
ICESCR
ICG
IDP
Asian Development Bank
Alternate Dispute Resolution
Asian Development Outlook
Aurat Foundation
Azad Jammu and Kashmir
Bertelsmann Transformation Index
Committee against Torture
Common Country Assessment
Competition Commission of Pakistan
Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women
Computerised National Identity Card
Corruption Perceptions Index
Consumer Price Index
Contraception Prevalence Rate
Convention on the Rights of the Child
Civil Society Organizations
Directly Observed Treatment Coverage
Disaster Risk Reduction
Election Commission of Pakistan
Education for All
European Economic Area
Emergency Obstetric and Neonatal Care
Free and Fair Election Network
Food and Agriculture Organization
Federally Administered Tribal Areas
Federal Bureau of Statistics
Friends of Democratic Pakistan Forum
First Information Report
Fiscal year 2007
Fiscal year 2008
Gender Based Violence
Global Competitiveness Index
Gross Domestic Product
Gross Enrolment Rate
Gender Parity Index
Home Based Workers
Human Development Index
Human Rights Commission of Pakistan
Health Facilities
Human rights based Approach
Identity Based Groups
International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights
International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights
International crises group
Internally Displaced Person
4
IMR
KP
LHWs
LG
LOC
MDGs
MEAs
MHHDC
MMR
MTDF
NCSW
NDMA
NER
NFC
NGO
NEP
NPFP& PHC
NWFP
OPV
PBA
PCMA
PEMRA
PILER
PIPS
PRSP
PRSP II
PSLMS
PSMA
RECOUP
RH
SBA
SBP
SDPI
TB
TCP
TFR
TTP
TVE
TVET
UNCT
UNDAF
UNCRC
UNHCR
UNICEF
VAW
WDI
WDI
WFP
WGI
YOY
Infant mortality rate
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Lady Health Workers
Local Government
Line of Control
Millennium Development Goals
Multilateral Environmental Agreements
Mahboob ul Haq Human Development Centre
Maternal Mortality Rate
Medium Term Development Framework
National Commission on Status of Women
National Disaster Management Authority
Net Enrolment Rate
National Finance Commission Award
Non-government Organization
National Education Policy
National Program for Family Planning and Primary Health Care
North West Frontier Province
Oral Polio Vaccine
Pakistan Banks’ Association
Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association
Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority
Pakistan Institute of Labour Education and Research
Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies
Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper 2
Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey
Pakistan Sugar Mills association
Research Consortium on Educational Outcomes and Poverty
Reproductive Heath
Stand-By Arrangement
State Bank of Pakistan
Sustainable Development Policy Institute
Tuberculosis
Trading Corporation of Pakistan
Total Fertility Rate
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan
Technical and Vocational Education
Technical and Vocational Education Training
United Nations Country Team
United Nations Development Assistance Framework
United Nations Committee on the Rights of Children
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
United Nations Children's Fund
Violence against Women
Women’s Development Index
World Development Index
World Food Programme
Worldwide Governance Indicators
Year over year
5
List of Figures
Figure 1: Map of Islamic Republic of Pakistan
Figure 2: Pakistan Balance of Trade (Million USD)
Figure 3: Pakistan Exports
Figure 4: Pakistan Inflation Rate Annual Change in CPI
Figure 5: FAO Food Price Index
Figure 6: Proportion of Population below the calorie-based poverty line
Figure 7: Global Food Prices and transmission to domestic prices
Figure 8: External and Domestic Debts
Figure 9: Global Median Age
Figure 10: Pakistan - Age Dependency Ratio of Working- Age Population
Figure 11: Structure of Inequalities in Pakistan
Figure 12: Structural Inequalities in Pakistan
Figure 13: The interplay of Processes, Policies and Consequences
Figure 14: Links between Energy and Development
Figure 15: Percentage of Energy mix 2007
Figure 16: The Cost of Floods
Figure 17: Earthquake Hazard for Pakistan
Figure 18: Genesis of Conflict in FATA and KP
Figure 19: Genesis of Conclict in Balochistan
Figure 20: Damage due to natural disasters
Figure 21: Pakistan MDG Nutrition Related Targets
Figure 22: Time trend in Malnutrition among under-5 Children
Figure 23: Violence Against Women 2004 – 2009
Figure 24: Voice and Accountability in Pakistan (1969-2009)
Figure 25: Voice and Accountability in South Asia
Figure 26: Regulatory Quality in Pakistan (1969-2009)
Figure 27: Regulatory Quality in South Asia (2009)
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List of Tables
Table 1: Pakistan’s Public Debt 2003 – 2010
Table 2: Global Competitiveness Index
Table 3: Forest Cover in Pakistan
Table 4: Area affected erosion (000 ha)
Table 5: External Cost of Pesticide Use in the Major Cotton Growing Areas of Punjab
Table 6: Cotton Farm workers' awareness about pesticides
Table 7: Cost of Load-shedding
Table 8: No. of Conflict related deaths and injuries in KP and FATA
Table 9: Population Growth Rates
Table 10: Under five Mortality Rates173
Table 11: Infant Mortality Rates
Table 12: Micro-nutrient deficiency and Food insecurity
Table 13: MDG Indicators for Goal 2
Table 14: Net Enrolment Rate by Provinces
Table 15: Literacy Rate (10 years and above)
Table 16: % Literacy Rates: Class, Urban-Rural Residence and Sex
Table 17: Missing Facilities in Public Schools
Table 18: Missing Facilities in Public Schools Pakistan: Urban/Rural Disparities 2008-09
Table 19: Comparison of Public Sector Spending on Education
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Table of Contents
Disclaimer ....................................................................................................................................... 2
Acknowledgments........................................................................................................................... 3
List of Acronyms ............................................................................................................................ 4
List of Figures ................................................................................................................................. 6
List of Tables .................................................................................................................................. 7
Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................ 8
Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................... 11
1 Background and Introduction ................................................................................................ 21
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
2
Methodology ....................................................................................................................................... 21
Guiding Principles of the Meta Analytic Approach to Country Analysis ........................................... 22
Country Context of Development ........................................................................................................ 22
Macroeconomic Overview .................................................................................................................. 23
1.4.1
External Sector ............................................................................................ 26
1.4.2
Inflation ....................................................................................................... 27
1.4.3
Food Insecurity ........................................................................................... 28
1.4.4
Stagflation ................................................................................................... 28
1.4.5
Poverty ........................................................................................................ 29
1.4.6
Feminization of Poverty .............................................................................. 31
1.4.7
Debt ............................................................................................................. 32
1.4.8
Money Supply .............................................................................................. 33
1.4.9
Informal Economy ....................................................................................... 34
1.4.10 Rapid Population Growth ........................................................................... 34
1.4.11 Urbanization ............................................................................................... 36
Inclusive Growth ................................................................................................................... 38
2.1 Situation Analysis ................................................................................................................................ 38
2.2 Inequalities and the Long Term Factors for Inclusive Growth Failure ................................................ 40
2.2.1
2.2.2
Distributional Inequalities .......................................................................... 40
Structural Inequalities................................................................................. 42
2.3 Causal Analysis ................................................................................................................................... 43
2.4 Rights Holders and Duty Bearers ........................................................................................................ 45
2.4.1
Framework for Economic Growth .............................................................. 45
2.5 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................... 47
3
Environment and Sustainable Energy .................................................................................... 48
3.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 48
3.2 Situation analysis ................................................................................................................................. 48
3.2.1
3.2.2
Situation Analysis of Environment .............................................................. 48
Situational Analysis (Sustainable Energy) .................................................. 52
3.3 Causal Analysis ................................................................................................................................... 56
3.3.1
3.3.2
Causal Analysis (Sustainable Environment) ............................................... 56
Causal Analysis (Sustainable Energy) ........................................................ 57
3.4 Duty Bearers and Right Holders .......................................................................................................... 58
3.5 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................... 60
4
Human-made and Natural Disasters ...................................................................................... 60
4.1 Situation Analysis ................................................................................................................................ 61
4.1.1
4.1.2
4.1.3
4.1.4
Conflict in FATA and KP ............................................................................ 61
Conflict in Balochistan................................................................................ 61
Ethnopolitical and Sectarian Conflicts ....................................................... 62
Natural Disasters ........................................................................................ 62
8
4.1.5
4.1.6
4.1.7
Impact of Disasters on the Excluded and Vulnerable ................................. 63
Impact on Economy and livelihoods ........................................................... 65
Impact on Governance and Rule of Law ..................................................... 66
4.2 Causal Analysis ................................................................................................................................... 66
4.2.1
4.2.2
Armed Conflicts........................................................................................... 66
Natural Disasters ........................................................................................ 67
4.3 Duty Bearers and Rights Holders ........................................................................................................ 73
4.4 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................... 75
5
Human Development and Human Security ........................................................................... 76
5.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 76
5.2 Situation Analysis for Human Development ....................................................................................... 77
5.2.1
5.2.2
5.2.3
Population ................................................................................................... 77
Health .......................................................................................................... 78
Education .................................................................................................... 84
5.3 Causal Analysis for Human Development .......................................................................................... 92
5.3.2
Gap Analysis ............................................................................................... 94
5.4 Rights Holders and Duty Bearers ........................................................................................................ 97
5.5 Human Security ................................................................................................................................... 98
5.6 Situation Analysis for Human Security ............................................................................................... 99
5.6.1
5.6.2
5.6.3
5.6.4
5.6.5
5.6.6
Women ......................................................................................................... 99
Children .................................................................................................... 100
Workers and Bonded Labourers ............................................................... 101
Refugees .................................................................................................... 101
Religious Minorities .................................................................................. 102
Internally Displaced Persons .................................................................... 102
5.7 Causal Analysis for Human Security ................................................................................................. 102
5.8 Duty Bearers and Rights Holders ...................................................................................................... 104
5.9 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................................... 104
6
State Effectiveness ............................................................................................................... 106
6.1 Situational Analysis ........................................................................................................................... 106
6.1.1
6.1.2
6.1.3
6.1.4
6.1.5
6.1.6
6.1.7
Elections .................................................................................................... 106
Accountability ........................................................................................... 107
Service delivery ......................................................................................... 108
Political Stability and Personal Security .................................................. 108
Rule of Law ............................................................................................... 109
Regulatory Quality .................................................................................... 110
Integrity Management ............................................................................... 111
6.2 Causal Analysis ................................................................................................................................. 111
6.2.1
6.2.2
Policy making and implementation ........................................................... 111
Citizen Accountability ............................................................................... 112
6.3 Duty bearers and right holders........................................................................................................... 113
6.4 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................................... 113
7
8
9
Conclusion and Way Forward ............................................................................................. 115
Selected Bibliography.......................................................................................................... 118
Notes .................................................................................................................................... 126
9
Figure 1: Map of Islamic Republic of Pakistan1
10
Executive Summary
Introduction
A Common Country Assessment (CCA) is the UN’s instrument for analysing the national development
situation and identifying key issues and priorities relevant to the preparation of the One UN Programme.
The current CCA is based on a meta-analysis of available research and scholarship on the Pakistan
country context which has been augmented through inputs from stakeholder consultative workshops held
in the provincial capitals.
The analysis has focused on exclusions/inequalities and is informed by the Human Rights Based
Approach (HRBA) to development. Patterns of exclusion, discrimination and inequality due to lack of
access to entitlements and rights for minorities, refugees, IDPs, girls, boys, women and men has been the
lens through which each priority development issue is viewed. Analysis of cause and effect relationships
has also been guided by the HRBA. While the CCA does not propose solutions, for each priority
development issue the roles and obligations of rights holders and (both state and non-state) duty bearers
have been described.
Overview
While significant positive strides have been taken in recent years to alleviate core development issues, the
stresses of a weak economy, poverty, inequality and demands of sustainable development have been
exacerbated by both human-made and natural disasters. Many of these challenges link Pakistan to its
immediate neighbours and the international community at large. The Taliban-related crisis, ethnopolitical
conflicts, the almost-annually recurring large-scale floods, earthquakes, droughts, landslides and cyclones
are all external supply shocks which have impacted on the people, their livelihoods and on national
infrastructure. The impact has been particularly harsh on the poor, women, children, old people,
minorities, and persons with special needs, refugees and Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs). A severe
setback to development was the floods of 2010 which affected more than 20 million people and caused an
estimated $ 9.5 billion in damages. In September 2011, monsoon rains affected 5.1 million people in
Sindh and Balochistan.
Despite alternating periods of autocracy and democracy on the ground, the present constitution of 1973
provides the basis for parliamentary democracy in Pakistan. After the return to democracy in 2008, the
18th Amendment to the Constitution of 2010 has heralded a sea change by comprehensively devolving to
the provinces the provision of basic services to the citizenry. Democracy is, however, weakened by the
fact that the prevailing electoral order, in effect, broadly divides up the entire rural population into two
categories: Zamindar (landlord/cultivator) and Kammi (Services/occupational caste/non-cultivator),
though there is geographical variation. Election results in rural areas depend heavily on the creation of
‘patron-client’ relationships, and the use of human networks.
In terms of poverty alleviation, Pakistan has made significant progress in the past decade. The recently
released Economy Survey 2011-2012 records “a reduction in absolute poverty over a four-year period
(2002-2006) as poverty headcount decreased from 34.5 per cent in 2000-2001 to 22.3 per cent in 20052006.” No official estimates since 2006 are available. The National Planning Commission’s Poverty
Centre has calculated the poverty rate as 17.2% for 2007/08, but this finding is contested. Feminization of
Poverty issues in Pakistan need to be addressed to redress gender inequalities and provide women,
especially female heads of households, with greater access and opportunities for economic empowerment.
11
Inclusive Growth and Population Dividend
The past six decades have been period of sustained economic growth for Pakistan, however, growth
slowed down during the 1970s and 1990s. Compared to the past, a downward trend in growth rates can be
discerned currently. Historically, Pakistan has been a moderate inflation economy. For the first fifty years
since Independence in 1947, Pakistan’s average economic growth rate was higher than the average
growth rate of the world economy. For the decade of the 60s, 70s and the 80s, the average annual real
GDP grew by 6.8 percent, 4.8 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively. By 2000, Pakistan’s annual GDP
growth had fallen to a historical low of under 2 percent. GDP growth bounced back, and by end-2004 it
showed the second highest growth rate in South Asia. The economy proved resilient in the wake of the
2005 earthquake and managed to grow by a healthy rate. However, the same growth was not maintained
in subsequent years.
In 60 years Pakistan’s urban population has increased by more than sevenfold whereby close to 37
percent of the population is now urban, making Pakistan the second most urbanized country in South
Asia. While the emergence of meta urban regions are viewed as engines of growth, the major
developmental challenges in this context are infrastructure deficit, urban poverty and unemployment,
inconsistent future ambitions for urban Pakistan, gaps in urban sectoral policies like those for local
economies, housing, land, primary and secondary education and basic heath, energy and fuel, increasing
informal subdivision of land for housing, a limited recognition of the informal sector as provider of wide
ranging urban services, increasing pollution, terror attacks, crime and vulnerability to natural calamities as
well as the absence of mass transit systems and increasing investment for facilitating private road
transport. The requisite coping strategies need to be ‘urban’ rather than sectoral, therefore, to be
effective the economic, social, governance and environmental strategies should relate to each other.
Pakistan’s population growth rate is decelerating, the working age population is expanding and the age
dependency ratio is on its way down. By 2030, Pakistan’s working age population is expected to be
around 67 percent from the current 54.9 percent. All of these factors point towards a transition with the
potential of a huge demographic dividend resulting in a “rise in the rate of economic growth due to a
rising share of working age people in the population.”
The new Framework for Economic Growth of the Government of Pakistan identifies the translation of the
‘youth bulge’ into a ‘demographic dividend’ as the principal challenge. It focuses on economic
governance, institutions, incentives and human resources and the reason for this ‘software’ centric
approach is the shortage of capital needed for investment in physical infrastructure. The 2012 budgetary
allocations suggest that the strategic aims of the new growth framework will take more time to be fully
implemented. Moreover, the informal economy in Pakistan is estimated to be around 20% of GDP.
Over the past six decades, sustained periods of comparatively high economic growth have not always
translated into poverty reduction, primarily because of distributional and structural inequalities. Gender
and regional inequities have also retarded Pakistan’s achievement of MDG targets. The government’s
fiscal policy, especially the policy’s heavy reliance on indirect taxation, has a direct impact on market
prices, which differentially affect the poorer segments of the population. In addition, government
intervention in commodity operations has been a major source of food inflation.
12
Human-Made and Natural Disasters
The stresses of a weak economy, poverty, inequality and demands of sustainable development are
exacerbated by both Human-made and natural disasters. The Taliban related crisis, ethnopolitical
conflicts, the almost annually recurring massive floods, earthquakes, droughts, landslides and cyclones
are all external supply shocks which have impacted the people, infrastructure and livelihoods. The impact
has been particularly harsh on the poor, women, children, old people, minorities, refugees and the
Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs). The province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and the Federally
Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) have witnessed the most sustained periods of intensive conflict. Even
prior to floods, there were 2.6 million conflict-affected people in the country, mostly from these two
regions. In Baluchistan, ethnopolitical conflict has led to an exodus of highly skilled people from the
province. Some estimates put the number between 100,000 to 200,000. Sectarian conflicts especially in
parts of FATA, KP and Karachi, have also claimed lives. As a legacy of the Afghan war, the country is
already hosting and repatriating the largest refugee population in the world.
Youth (15-29 years) comprising 27 percent of the population in crisis-affected areas, have been
particularly exposed to militancy. Limited training and skills-base of uneducated youth, the militarization
of educated youth and the young women who have suffered from forced and early marriages ‘for their
protection’ are challenges of particular importance. The crises also had serious impact on the state of
human rights in the country. However, the courts, media and a vibrant civil society have been doing
commendable work in this regard.
Natural disasters have also disproportionately affected the excluded and the vulnerable. The damage to
villages, loss of livelihoods, trauma of displacement and disillusionment are adding to the stresses. Over
20 million people, mostly poor, were affected by floods in 2010, and more than 1.6 million homes were
damaged or destroyed. However, despite challenges, the response of Government has been commendable.
Education in conflict affected areas has suffered due to destruction of 333 schools in FATA and KP (100
boys’, 233 girls’) and partial damage to 275 schools (80 boys’, 195 girls’), affecting 0.98 million students
(38.5 percent girls) and 27,765 teachers in KP. In FATA, 141 schools (53 girls’) have been destroyed and
174 (19 girls’) partially damaged. The access of poor and vulnerable to health facilities in these areas has
also suffered. Peripheral health facilities (HFs) were forcibly shut down leading to the closure of services
for birth spacing, prenatal and obstetric care, immunization, nutrition, and curative services.
The national and regional economies have suffered due to crises. There have been major damages to the
agriculture sector as well as exacerbating the pre-existing structural problems. The sector is the chief
source of employment for women. This has increased food vulnerability in a country in which around
48.6 percent of the 180 million people are already food insecure. However, the opportunity in this is the
bumper wheat crop which has been variously attributed to the increased fertility of the soil after floods.
The local supply network has been affected leading to reluctance of traders, input suppliers, private
service providers and transporters to work in the area. The mineral sector has faced a precipitous decline
in output. Tourism in the country in general, and in areas like Swat in particular, has come to a virtual
standstill, with a loss of some 40,000 jobs. The crises have affected women’s livelihoods
disproportionately, especially for women who were already vulnerable.
In the worst of flood- and cyclone-affected areas, most villages are dependent on subsistence agriculture
which has suffered due to washing away of fields. Similarly, the Attabad Lake has cut off the Chinese
trade route and washed away 25 kilometers of the Karakoram Highway, including six bridges, thus
cutting off people from their livelihoods.
13
The impact of natural disasters on security and stability has been varied in different parts of the country.
However, the common thread running across all situations has been the need for law enforcement
agencies to provide protection services to those affected by natural disasters.
Human-caused climate change may have played a role in the floods. However, major problems identified
as causes of damage include embankment maintenance, barrage regulations and design issues, gaps in
capacity relating to motivation of duty staff, plans, flood predictions and early warnings. The built
environment also interferes with, diverts or constrains the natural pathways of the rivers, interrupting
the flow and causing damages during floods. Farmers, especially those in Sindh, cite diversion of
upstream waters, unequal access to land directly translated as unequal access to water and the rotational
irrigation system as the causes for droughts.
The biggest single determinant of risk to the vulnerable population and groups is their socio-economic
status. Poverty and social exclusion, in most of these crises, have direct correspondence with the extent of
damages. These are the people with least coping mechanisms and access to resources. Sustained help, till
long after the crises, will be needed from all duty bearers. The necessary legal and regulatory structure
required to discharge the duties and secure the rights in such circumstances is missing (e.g. Pakistan is not
a party to the 1951 Convention on Refugees), and there is no national legislation on refugees or
statelessness.
The provincial governments and their irrigation and disaster management departments have the duty to
maintain protection structures, give early warning and provide early rescue and relief. The capacity and
resources of some of these duty bearers have serious shortages. It is also their duty to provide women the
facility to help prove their property rights because of lack of documentation. A rights based approach to
reconstruction also requires that the landless among disaster survivors not be evicted from lands to which
they do not hold title. With the 18th amendment, the provinces are now taking the lead in reconstruction
efforts as new duty bearers with different levels of capacity. The international community, in its roles as
service provider and convener, needs to take the initiative to replicate successful models of recovery from
one province to another.
Traditional Alternate Dispute Resolution mechanisms exist but have been weakened over the course of
crises, but they need to be viewed as actors with obligations. Their capacity development in legal and
juridical assignments is a challenge and opportunity. Moreover, constitutional and legal arrangements on
dispute resolution need to be strongly enhanced to ensure timely and effective implementation. Other
challenges include sharing of knowledge and skills through the initiation of a regional research and
development program for drought and water management, transforming communities into important duty
bearers to fulfill some duties by taking ownership of crises related advocacy campaigns, the need for a
comprehensive drought-mitigation infrastructure and strategy and the capacity gap of state institutions for
formulating and implementing the seismic, landslides, cyclone and flood related building codes.
Human Development and Human Security
Since a skilled, educated and healthy workforce, for both present and future, is required to achieve the
targets of inclusive growth and cope with the crises, it is therefore important to locate the gaps in present
policies and processes. With almost 80 million people under the age of 18, the importance of investment
in and protection of youth, both girls and boys, is crucial, especially in relation to access to quality health
and education services, as well as skills development.
14
In analyzing Pakistan’s present human development context and future challenges, it is clear that key
improvements have been recorded in health and education and provision of basic rights, despite a litany
of natural and human-made crises that has affected the country in the past six years. Pakistan’s HDI
ranking, which had increased by 18 places during 2005-2009, slid back 20 positions in 2010 to end at
145th out of 187 countries measured. Its multidimensional poverty level has declined to 11.8%. In terms
of MDGs 4 & 5, for instance, improvements have taken place in IMR, MMR, U5MR but do not match
2015 targets, and are marked both by urban-rural differences and stark regional disparities. A
government-led analysis of MDG targets in 2010 concluded that Pakistan is off-track on 4 targets and
lagging behind on 19 others, while it is ahead on 6 and on track on 3, of the 32 targets reported on.
Regarding MDG 2, while net primary enrolment rates (NER) have increased across the board and gender
disparity has marginally reduced, there has been a significant decline in completion/survival to grade 5
during the past five years. Given all round increases this decline may reflect a shift to private schools,
though inflation and global recession are also factors affecting parents’ ability to educate their children.
The literacy rate of the 10+years population has increased over 25% in the past decade overall and 40%
for women and girls, but it is still doubtful whether the MDG target for female literacy will be reached.
Studies have demonstrated a strong direct correlation between literacy rate and household income,
indicating that it is a consequence of socioeconomic causes.
Immunization shows improved coverage but requires increased impetus if targets are to be met. The
coverage of households by Lady Health Workers is a relative success story, increasing two-fold to 83%
by 2009, and on track to ensure full-coverage by 2015. Both sanitation and water supply coverage (MDG
7) show marked improvement, but here too achieving targets by 2015 will not be easy.
However, many challenges still remain. Nutrition status appears to have deteriorated or stagnated; the
2010 floods provided the occasion to bring this problem to the limelight, including the fact that Global
Acute Malnutrition (GAM) rates in Sindh and Balochistan are well above the emergency threshold (15%).
In addition, polio remains a serious concern. Pakistan accounts for highest number of cases in 2011.
Overall, incidence has increased by nearly 15% in 2011 despite focused government and UN initiatives.
Eradication efforts are hampered by lack of access and ideological issues.
Population growth continues to be a serious concern, with the 2.5% annual increase being the highest in
the region. Reproductive health issues take a heavy toll on women and need to be urgently addressed.
Although the general population HIV prevalence in Pakistan is rather low (less than 0.1%), the key
groups at risk in Pakistan comprise largely of people who inject drugs (20% prevalence) and sex workers
(6.7% prevalence).
As with health, despite gains, it is evident that girls continue to face significant disadvantage in access to
education as they reach adulthood. Advocacy for equitable approaches to ensure quality of educational
opportunities is a fundamental need. Progress notwithstanding, women’s participation in the labour force
in Pakistan is low (21.8%), and is concentrated in the informal labour market and home-based worker
sector where they face challenges, particularly in relation to social protection.
Increase in expenditure on education and health is crucial to ensure inclusive development in Pakistan.
With about 80 million children and young persons under the age of 18, investment in and protection of
them is vital to enable them to fulfill their future roles as part of an educated and skilled workforce that
can contribute to growth, and as part of an active citizenry that participates in the electoral and political
processes. Similarly women should play a vital role whether through community engagement, paid work
15
or political participation, but this requires both attitudinal change and targeting of resources. Separate data
on the Afghan refugee population is unavailable, but it is clear that they constitute a vulnerable and
excluded group that requires special targeting.
Human security is an integral part of human development as it focuses on all the risks to human
development and the individuals’ and groups’ vulnerability to violence and their personal security. It
includes safety from threats of job losses, political repression, hunger, disease, and natural disasters.
Violence against women is a major challenge. Manifestations include murder often in relation to so called
issues of honour, domestic violence, sexual assault, and acid throwing. Women face difficulties in
accessing the paid labour market, and the Gender Inequality Index of the Human Development Report
2010 identifies the labour force participation rate as 21.8% for women and 86.7% for men. Hurdles to
participation include illiteracy, social attitudes which restrict mobility, particularly in rural areas, and a
deteriorating human security situation. Reserved seats in Parliament have given visibility to the political
participation of women and the signs are encouraging.
The 2009 Report of the UNCRC noted that challenges to protection included recruitment of children into
armed conflict; and the application of the anti-terrorism legislation to minors. Children who work are
excluded in multiple ways; as well as being denied the right to childhood work impacts negatively on
education and health. Afghan Refugee children, girl child domestic workers and those in bonded labour
are especially vulnerable.
The State has made key gains such as obtaining consensus around the Management and Repatriation
Strategy for Afghan Refugees in Pakistan (adopted in March 2010), but more needs to be done. This
group is extremely vulnerable and marginalized that both shares the general needs of other excluded
populations and also has special needs due to its non-citizen status within Pakistan.
Religious minorities need special attention for their rights and welfare. Violent attacks against the person,
their home and their place of worship, and abductions present a challenging environment. Based on their
population size, Ahmedis were particularly targeted. The misuse of some laws against minorities
increases their vulnerability.
Despite these constraints the government has shown commitment to change. The ratification of
international treaty obligations, most recently the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights,
and the Convention against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment,
both of which were ratified on 23 June 2010, demonstrate this. Legislation has been passed in relation to
matters such as bonded labour and so called honor killings, and bills have been introduced in relation to
matters such domestic violence, and corporal punishment. Government policy and plans have been
formulated on diverse issues such as meeting the Millennium Development Goals, and a peace-building
strategy for FATA and KP. Implementation on the ground is hampered by capacity gaps, a lack of
awareness of people’s rights, and negative social attitudes reinforced by discriminatory legislation.
Institutional capacity in relation to the investigation and prosecution, attitudes of those in the criminal
justice system related to the acceptance that women, children, and religious minorities have rights, and
that violence in the home is a public and not a private issue, may be exacerbating the situation. Again this
presents an opportunity for the government to show leadership. It is important to ensure that
parliamentarians in all the legislatures have the technical support they need to introduce legislation that is
in conformity with international treaty obligations.
Although the State is primarily responsible for guaranteeing the fundamental human rights of citizens,
citizens themselves are also duty bearers. Social attitudes are exacerbating social exclusions. The factors
16
producing these attitudes may include discrimination and violence in the home environment, reinforced
by prejudices in the education curriculum. The State can play a role in reversing this trend by reforming
the education curriculum, repealing discriminatory legislation, and promoting non-discrimination in
institutions such as the police and civil service.
Sustainable Environment and Energy
The key challenge is to ensure that inclusive growth and human development for all, is future-sensitive.
The needs of future generations can only be safeguarded through sustained utilization of environmental
and energy resources. The strain on both economy and growth caused by climate change and the energy
crisis are now becoming visible. The country is among the Worlds’ Top 10 in terms of vulnerability to the
impacts of climate change.
Estimates suggest that environmental degradation costs the country at least 6 percent of GDP, or about Rs.
365 billion per year, and these costs fall disproportionately upon the poor and women who suffer due to
illnesses and premature mortality caused by air pollution, diarrheal diseases and typhoid (due to
inadequate and unsatisfactory water supply), and lost livelihoods (due to reduced agricultural productivity
and direct contact with fertilizers and pesticides). These burdens are compounded by problems such as
hazardous solid waste, the loss of forest cover and desertification, soil erosion and loss in soil fertility.
The cost for Pakistan to adapt to climate change has been estimated at US $ 10.7 billion per year for the
next 40-50 years. This investment is needed in natural resource management and planning,
implementation of incentive-based regulatory policy regimes and support for voluntary environmental
protection initiatives by industries. National industrial strategy and policies need to be reviewed in order
to better incorporate environmentally-sensitive and efficient resource-use considerations.
Water conservation management techniques in agriculture with the support of community participation,
separation of municipal wastewater from industrial effluent, a regular monitoring programme to assess the
surface and ground water quality, the treatment of sewage and industrial effluent, clear guidelines for
groundwater abstraction and resources commensurate with policy goals; are required to address the root
causes of water pollution and scarcity.
Environmental change will accelerate with increase in the economic growth rate. At present, Pakistan is
short of up to 5000 Megawatts of electricity. 30% of the population has no access to electricity while 80%
have no access to piped gas, and reliance on imports threatens the overall economy. The resulting load
management practices are estimated to incur a cost of Rs. 495 billion to the different sectors of the
economy and the loss of 400,000 jobs. Shortage in energy supply is a key constraint, along with issues in
finance, institutional coordination, and industrial vision, which has made a number of productive
activities uncompetitive in domestic and international markets leading to shutting down of SMEs and
relocation of industrial plants to other countries. The Government’s reform plan 2010 aims at addressing
issues of governance and efficiency, regulations, fuel mixing, financial requirements and investment.
Energy sector deficits are holding growth back and not address the needs despite clear demand and
potential. There is comprehensive planning in individual sub- sectors, but it is fragmented; plans require
better integration, implementation, monitoring, and financing. Circular debt is a major impediment to new
financing in the energy sector. It is now not only affecting electricity, gas, and fuels sub-sectors but also
discouraging future investments in the coal and alternate energy options. Improved corporate and
operational governance and robust pricing mechanisms are important for the sustainability of the sector.
Private sector attention will be contingent upon better environment for doing business. Energy efficiency
17
is a priority that needs to be backed by better capacity, legislation, management, and investment. These
factors indicate a deeper crisis in energy policymaking, governance, and regulation. If the governance
issues are fully and successfully addressed, then it will be possible to resolve the fundamental problems of
the energy crisis.
For more effective and sustainable environment and energy, individuals as genuine stakeholders and as
rights holders have to be transformed into responsible duty bearers. The State and its organs have the
obligation to prevent “elite” capture of environment- and energy-related policies which should have
broad-based participation and enhance the capacity of poor and excluded groups to claim and exercise
their rights. To protect these rights, Pakistan has actively acceded to international treaties and conventions
but attention will be needed over procedural rights, such as the right to information, the right to
participation and the right to judicial redress.
The obligation to protect requires the State to ensure that robust standards of environmental industrial
hygiene are maintained and proper regulatory frameworks and monitoring mechanism are in place to
ensure that private actors are behaving the way required by the laws. In the post 18th amendment era, this
will involve policy formulation, provision of resources, public reporting, building capacity to monitor the
standards and offer incentives and conduct accountability. The State’s obligation to fulfill requires the
government to take appropriate steps, to promote the realization of rights such as introducing environment
and industrial hygiene standards into national legislation. Civil society stakeholders can be involved in
environmental and energy decision-making and oversight. With a weak economy, the government cannot
fulfill some of these obligations and meet the costs alone. Therefore in addition to a national funding
mechanism, multinational duty bearers will have to come up with more resources in this regard.
State Effectiveness
An educated, healthy and safe citizenry, especially women, is necessary to play its role through
community engagement, paid work or political participation. For inclusive and equitable human
development to take place, the State must be able to deliver essential services and create an enabling
environment in which people can take charge of their own lives. This necessitates the State to be able to
develop and implement policy effectively, which requires enhancing the quality of governance
mechanisms, including accountability and participatory processes to ensure implementation. Obstacles to
delivery of services and the creation of an enabling environment include political instability, personal
insecurity, weak rule of law, and corruption.
Law enforcement agencies struggle to address domestic and transnational organized crime, and provide
adequate security to many of Pakistan’s citizens, which comes at a serious cost to governance,
development and security. Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and FATA are particularly vulnerable. The
solution, like the problem, does not lie exclusively in Pakistan. Regional cooperation and coordination
need to be strengthened to address such crime.
Pakistan has attained remarkable achievements in political and policy domains in last few years, including
participatory decision making in the form of landmark constitutional developments. The 7 th National
Finance Commission was unanimously approved in 2009 followed by the passing of the 18th
Constitutional Amendment in 2010 by Parliament. These developments have established a new
framework of devolution of powers from federation to provinces and new opportunities and challenges
are emerging with greater scope for public participation. Reform and proposals to implement reform in
18
Gilgit Baltistan and FATA are positive developments. The successful implementation of these reforms
will strengthen the democracy in Pakistan.
The potential benefits of prioritizing improved service delivery are considerable; the evidence suggests
that the ability to deliver essential services, in addition to the intrinsic value of those services, may be
linked to political stability and reduced conflict. Measures to improve the security situation by the
effective implementation of the rule of law would reap dividends in relation to the security of life, liberty
and property of the people and provide a better economic and social environment. This would include
measures to address capacity issues relating to the investigation and prosecution of offences, and improve
and depoliticize police performance and accountability.
The response to the 2010 floods also highlights the potential of supporting capacity building in relation to
State effectiveness to reduce the impact of disasters. The government has demonstrated its commitment to
disaster management by signing the international commitment the 2005 Hyogo Framework for Action
and creating a disaster management framework. Assistance is now needed in relation to policy
implementation and co-ordination.
Conclusion
Problems and challenges come with opportunities. Pakistan has attained remarkable achievements in the
political and policy domains which are also reflected in the relevant indices. Existing policy and
regulatory frameworks, the implementation of 18th Amendment and 7th NFC Award and constitutional
changes in the border regions of FATA and GB are historic events with far-reaching impacts. Successful
implementation of the 18th Amendment and the 7th NFC Award will be critical. Corresponding reforms
in the civil services and law enforcement capacities will be a sine qua non to translate the constitutional
guarantees into measurable positive impacts in the life of the people of Pakistan.
Recent gains should be used as foundation to enable the country to move forward on the path of
sustainable and equitable development. Pakistan’s priority development imperatives include the need
for inclusive growth, addressing urbanization concerns, nurturing a sustainable environment and energy
regime, minimizing the adverse effects of human-made and natural crises, ensuring human development
and human security, and the creation of an effective and accountable State. Special attention needs to be
paid to excluded and vulnerable groups who are the worst affected by national setbacks and the least
benefited by overall gains.
Among the opportunities and challenges facing Pakistan is the increasing urban population, which
requires a strategy to improve competitiveness by expansion in urban city markets, promotion of cluster
development, improvement in urban governance, skill development and autonomous local government.
However, this should not be at the expense of rural development, nor involve the shifting of resources
towards urban centres. Tapping in to the demographic divided necessitates provision of skills and
opportunities for productive employment, or else there is a risk that this fast growing young adult
population may also be ripe for “social unrest, war and terrorism.”
To take advantage of the demographic window of opportunity, economic growth needs to be translated
into poverty reduction and employment creation for all. The existence of distributional, structural, gender
and regional iniquities have retarded Pakistan’s achievement of MDG targets. The government’s fiscal
policy, especially the policy’s heavy reliance on indirect taxation, has a direct impact on market prices,
which differentially affect the poorer segments of the population.
19
Pakistan has already suffered badly from the war in Afghanistan and terrorism. In addition, inclusive
growth is hampered by human-made crises and natural disasters. The external supply shocks have been
particularly harsh on the poor, women, children, old people, minorities, refugees and IDPs. The damage
to habitat, loss of livelihoods, trauma of displacement and disillusionment are adding to the stresses. The
access of the poor to education and health in crises-affected areas has been affected, and food
vulnerability has increased. Trust in the State’s effectiveness needs to be reinforced, basic services,
employment and livelihood opportunities need to be provided equitably, and radicalization needs to be
countered.
Natural disasters affect and are affected by environmental conditions and climate change. Gaps in
Disaster Risk Management (DRM) have increased the risk of damage from natural disasters. The built
environment also interferes with the natural pathways of the rivers and causes damage during
floods. However, the biggest single determinant of risk to vulnerable groups is their socio-economic
status, necessitating a rights-based approach to recovery and reconstruction.
It is important to enable everyone to participate in providing solutions and setting the country on track to
attain MDG targets. The 80 million children and young persons under the age of 18 need investment for
their education, security and health. Women need to be engaged with issues of their local communities
and to be empowered to participate in the political process at all levels. To meet this end, a uniform
vision, institutional capacity building and ownership at the provincial level will be needed. Without a
research base and quality data, evidence-based policy-making will not be possible.
Improved tax administration to ensure increased revenue collection, more effective expenditure planning
and control, effectively addressing the energy crisis, reducing circular debt, minimizing corruption and
bureaucratic delays, combined with strengthening governance institutions are necessary steps to facilitate
necessary economic growth and progress towards achievement of MDG targets.
Due to post-18th Amendment devolution and transitional arrangements, federal and provincial
governments will need support to take advantage of the new constitutional power configurations and to
develop the necessary capacity to respond to these additional responsibilities. The international
community and development partners have a key role to play in helping to fill capacity and resource gaps.
While it is clear that the State apparatus remains duty bound to fulfill its obligations to the citizenry as
rights holders, the analysis of this mutual relationship needs also to account for resourcing and capacities
on the duty bearers' side and responsibilities and attitudes on the side of rights holders. Rights holders
have a role and responsibility to ensure that the State is doing its utmost and also to support this endeavor
through their own practices. Therefore, rights holders need to mobilize themselves to hold government
authorities accountable, and in turn they too must respect the rule of law and due process. However, rights
holders do not constitute a uniform or homogeneous group, and sub-group self-interest often dominates.
The tendency to seek preference through influential contacts is both a cause and effect of weakening the
State's governance role, and lies at the heart of differential access to services. In this sense, layers of elite
capture of scarce resources and capacities severely exacerbate problems of access for excluded and
vulnerable groups at the national, provincial, district, tehsil, union council and village levels.
The correct choices and strategies relating to priority development issues would enable Pakistan to move
forward towards sustainable and equitable development in cooperation with its neighbours and with the
support of the international community. This requires the spectrum of federal and provincial/regional
stakeholders, including civil society, media and academia, to be constructively engaged and empowered
to participate in determining the development agenda. In turn this agenda should be consonant with
Pakistan’s obligations vis-à-vis ratified international covenants and core human rights principles.
20
Background and Introduction
Since 1997, United Nations works under a comprehensive programme with the aim of preparing the UN
for the challenges of future. The Common Country Assessment (CCA) and the United Nations
Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF) are part of this strategy.
As defined by the General Assembly, the CCA is the common instrument and a country-based process for
reviewing and analysing the national development situation and identifying key issues as a basis for
advocacy, policy dialogue and preparation of the UNDAF.
Based on the above, this CCA has taken into account national priorities, with a focus on Millennium
Development Goals and the other commitments and targets of the Millennium Declaration as well as
international conferences, summits and conventions. It is based on a comprehensive meta-analysis of the
situation through which the UN and its partners have identified areas requiring priority attention, based on
an analysis of key development challenges within the country.
1.1 Methodology
A Meta analytic approach to the country analysis has been selected by the UNCT in recognition of the
fact that UN agencies are constantly engaged in data collection, research, studies, reviews and analysis in
support of their work. Furthermore, added to this is a wide spectrum of relevant analytic work on Pakistan
produced by the government, CSOs, academia, research and humanitarian and development partners.
These included documents and reports produced by relevant and reliable non-state actors (including
shadow alternate reports to and comments by Treaty Bodies and supervisory bodies in the UN system).
Also included are studies, reports and analysis that use data sufficiently disaggregated (by sex, age,
financial status, rural/urban, ethnicity, region, religion and language, as well as disability, HIV/AIDS and
other status) to identify excluded groups and explain the nature of their exclusion. The documents were
selected on the basis of data reliability (citation, authors, and agencies), currency of information, and their
coverage of the core areas
An inductive methodological approach was used. This helped the team to (a) condense analyses of
documents into brief, summary formats; (b) establish clear links between the objectives of the study and
the summary findings derived from the reports; and (c) develop a framework of the underlying structure
of Priority Development Issues that are evident in the reports.
Problems and challenges were selected for further analysis on the basis of their persistence, severity and
scope, trends that might lead to crises, disparities which suggest unequal treatment or discrimination
against the rights holders, capacity issues or negligence of the duty bearers, and where problems are
closely linked via immediate causal relationships. These priority issues are also taken as felt realities that
are brought out through properly conducted public opinion surveys (as opposed to personal priorities of
the researchers) which complement the UN’s or Government priorities and issues identified through other
well documented scientific inquiry. This approach provided a user friendly and systematic set of
procedures for analyzing reports that could produce reliable and valid findings.
The priority development issues were then subjected to methods of inquiry that are based on empirical as
well as qualitative principles of reasoning. The Primary drivers or root causes behind every priority were
catalogued, classified and analyzed and the enabling factors identified and unpacked into components and
sub-components.
The initial findings were then presented to stakeholders in a series of workshops in Islamabad, Karachi,
Lahore, Quetta, Peshawar and Muzaffarabad. The stakeholders included Federal and Provincial
21
Government officials, Academia, Media, CSOs, Professionals, Young people and Political
Representatives. The results of these consultations were compiled, reported and taken into consideration.
The draft findings were also shared with the UN’s steering committee, the technical committee set up to
help the team and some of the individual UN agencies and their experts. Their input is reflected in the
report subject to the disclaimer above.
1.2 Guiding Principles of the Meta Analytic Approach to Country Analysis
The two guiding principles of this CCA are the focus on exclusions/inequalities and the Human Rights
Based Approach (HRBA) to development. The priority development issues of Pakistan have been
described and analyzed with attention to patterns of exclusion, discrimination and inequality to
substantiate the condition of groups excluded due to lack of access to their entitlements and rights. This
application of an Exclusion/Inequality filter has helped to analyze and describe forms of discrimination &
exclusion in terms of the different ways in which minorities, refugees, IDPs, girls, boys, women and men
experience them.
The priority development issues are manifestations of underlying and root causes. The findings, data and
trends of the descriptive analysis have been organized into relationships of causes and effects. This
causality analysis is guided by the HRBA. The causes and their effects are understood as rights
unfulfilled. Immediate and superficial causes have been explored further to reveal the underlying causal
mechanics.
This causal analysis has been further used in the identification of Rights holders and Duty Bearers (both
state and non-state). The relationships between and among the rights holders and duty bearers have been
analyzed for specific human rights. The identification of skills, resources, responsibility, authority and
motivation, of each actor; have been used to identify capacity gaps of these right holders and duty bearers.
1.3 Country Context of Development
The Islamic Republic of Pakistan has been a member of United Nations since September 1947. For much
of this time, the country has mostly been ruled by the military with intermittent periods of democracy.
The present constitution of 1973 provided for a parliamentary democracy. Yet the country was ruled by
the army from 1977 to 1988 and then from 1999 to 2008. With return to democracy in 2008, there has
been a major transformation of the state and its institutions involving both political and juridical results.
This transformation, through the 18th amendment to the constitution, has changed the method of
organizing authority, especially when it comes to development. With the removal of the ‘concurrent list’
from constitution, important functions of the State, especially those related to service delivery, have been
completely devolved to the provinces.
During the same period, the country has been through multiple crises. The province of Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) have been particularly affected
by an insurgency like situation. This has impacted the law and order situation in the rest of the country.
Added to the problems, the floods of 2010 affected more than 20 million people.
A poor economy gender inequality, multiple exclusions faced by large populations and conflict and
natural disasters are contributing to reduced outcomes of human development, sustainable environment
and energy. The development initiatives for this purpose must not impair the ability and the right of future
generations to develop. Underlying these reduced outcomes of sustainable human development are the
challenges the State faces in being an effective agent to plan and implement the development policies that
will improve the delivery of core services. The concept of an effective State goes beyond that of an entity
22
that can deliver core services. It has an existence that is separate to, and will continue beyond the lifespan
of, the current government and parliamentarians. As such it creates an enabling environment and provides
the means of participation that will empower people to contribute to their own development. An effective
State enables people, especially the most excluded, to vote in and stand for free and fair elections.
Through the equitable provision of literacy, access to information, and access to justice, an effective State
enables people to contribute to policy making and hold to account public bodies and elected officials for
the policy decisions they have made and the way those policies have been implemented. The different
subject areas addressed in this report are in themselves multi-layered and these different layers are
examined.
The narrative of development in Pakistan is not linear and the different subject areas connect in different
ways. An examination of the floods in July 2010 demonstrates the linkages. The destruction to
communication network, irrigation system and, environmental degradation and displacement caused by
the floods has exacerbated food insecurity making the already excluded and vulnerable populations more
marginalized which has contributed to increased levels of malnutrition. More than this, pre-existing levels
of exclusion and poverty meant that many people were already suffering from food insecurity and
malnutrition so that when the floods came they were more vulnerable to acute malnutrition and also
therefore more susceptible to disease. Conflict and insecurity limited the access of humanitarian workers
to many of those affected by the floods. Whilst the link between climate change and the floods may be
uncertain, it has caused massive land degradation and exacerbated landslides in mountainous areas of
AJK and KP caused due to the 2005 earthquake and deforestation. The scale of destruction, loss and
displacement caused by the floods is linked to the State’s effectiveness in implementing disaster risk
reduction strategies such as watershed management and the maintenance of flood protection
embankments and a well-coordinated disaster response. This also linked with effected populations’
existing levels or lack of resilience to mitigate disasters. The implementation of disaster management
systems requires adequate funding and will be challenging in the absence of economic reforms aimed at
widening the tax base and reducing the tax gap.
Based on this narrative, this report is not prescriptive and does not make any deliberate attempt at
proposing solutions, except wherever the context cannot be explained without resort to normative
statements. The report focuses on exclusions and inequalities and identifies the significant regional
disparities that exist in Pakistan. The Millennium Development Goals are an important focal point for
development interventions in Pakistan and the Government’s commitment to them should be supported.
The MDG’s present a crucial opportunity not only to meet the individual targets but to meet them in a
way that reduces these regional inequalities.
Post 18th amendment, the roles and capacities of the individual provincial governments to achieve the
developmental targets are also in focus. De-jure, provincial autonomy is now at its highest. The regional
exclusions and inequalities are now more of a responsibility of the provinces.
1.4 Macroeconomic Overview
This section will present the macroeconomic overview related to the external Sector, inflation, food
insecurity, stagflation, poverty and its feminization, debt, money supply and the informal economy.
The past six decades have been period of sustained economic growth for Pakistan, however, growth
slowed down during the 1970s and 1990s. Compared to the past, a downward trend in growth rates can be
discerned. Historically, Pakistan has been a moderate inflation economy. For the first fifty years since
Independence in 1947, Pakistan’s average economic growth rate was higher than the average growth rate
23
of the world economy. For the decade of the 60s, 70s and the 80s the average annual real GDP grew by
6.8 percent, 4.8 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively. Pakistan’s GDP growth for 2010 was 4.2%.
1n 1997 the Asian Financial Crisis, precipitated by the collapse of the Thai baht, had an adverse impact
on GDP growth rates in Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, Hong Kong and the Philippines. By 1998, ElNino brought about the worst drought in Pakistan’s history. Balochistan was the worst hit where 26
districts were classified as “suffering from severe famine”. According to some sources, in Sindh, nearly
60 percent of the population was forced to migrate to irrigated land.2
In May 1998, followed by Pokhran-II, India’s test explosion of nuclear devices, Pakistan conducted tests
of its own nuclear explosive devices. The two nuclear detonations triggered ‘sweeping U.S. economic
sanctions’.3
In late 2001, as a consequence of the attack on the Indian Parliament, India and Pakistan massed around 1
million troops along the Line of Control (LOC). The potentially nuclear standoff sent shockwaves around
the world and heightened Pakistan’s risk perception.
On 7 October 2001, the United States and the United Kingdom launched Operation Enduring Freedom
and by the end of the year Pakistan became the host of the largest refugee population whereby nearly 20
percent of Afghanistan’s population was living in Pakistan.
By 2000, Pakistan’s annual GDP growth had fallen to a historical low of under 2 percent. But GDP
growth bounced back and by end-2004 Asian Development Bank’s Asian Development Outlook (ADO)
expected Pakistan to show the second highest growth rate in South Asia.
In 2005, the Kashmir Earthquake, 7.6 on the moment magnitude scale, the 17th deadliest earthquake in
human history, left 79,000 dead and more than 100,000 injured as well as causing massive environmental
degradation. But the economy proved resilient and managed to grow by a healthy 6.8 percent for the
twelve months ending 30 June 2006. The same growth rate could not be maintained for the subsequent
years.
Table: Comparison of Pakistan with other countries in the South Asian region (2009)4
Bangladesh
GDP
$241.1 billion
India
Nepal
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
$3.57 trillion
$33.66 billion
$433.1 billion
$96.6 billion
Growth rate of
GDP (%)
5.6%
7.4%
4.7%
4.2%
3.5%
Total
Population
(July
2010
estimates)
GDP per capita
156 million
1.173 billion
28.9 million
184.4 million
21.51 million
$1500
$3100
$1200
$2500
$4500
Household
income
or
consumption
by percentage
share
Current
Account
Balance
Inflation rate
(%)
Lowest 10%: 8.8%
Highest 10% :
26.6% (2008)
Lowest 10%: 3.6%
Highest 10% :
31.1% (2009)
Lowest 10%: 6%
Highest 10% :
40.6% (2008)
Lowest 10%: 3.9%
Highest 10% :
26.5% (2005)
Lowest 10%: 1.1%
Highest 10%:
39.7% (2004)
$2.8 billion
$-31.54 billion
$537 million
$-2.89 billion
$-1.69 billion
5.4%
10.9%
13.2%
13.6%
3.4%
24
Total External
Debt Burden
(in US b)
$23.22 billion
$223.9 billion
$4.5 billion
$52.12 billion
$19.45 billion
Unemployment
Rate
Gender
Gap
Index
and
Rank [out of
135 countries]
(2011)
5.1%
10.7%
46% (2008)
14%
5.9%
0.6812
69
0.6190
113
0.5888
126
0.5583
133
0.7212
31
The Table above shows Pakistan’s relative standing in the South Asia region in terms of economic
indicators, with its growth rate among the lowest, its inflation highest, unemployment, external debt
burden and trade deficit worrying. The internal and external factors influencing these trends will be
discussed in the following pages.
Table: Pakistan’s key economic indicators over the past decade5
2001
2004
2007
2008/9
$533
$576
$651
$650
$311 billion
$361 billion
$438 billion
$448 billion
3.3%
6.1%
5.3%
4.3%
% share in GDP
Agriculture
24%
22%
20%
20%
Manufacturing
24%
27%
27%
27%
Services
52%
51%
53%
53%
Total Revenues
as % of GDP
10%
10%
9.8%
9.8%
Inequality Index
(Gini)
31
31
NA
NA
Income share of
richest 10%
27%
26%
NA
NA
Income share of
poorest 10%
3.98%
3.99%
NA
NA
Gender
Gap
Index (rank from
135 countries)
Trade Balance
as % of GDP
NA
NA
126
132
-1.1%
1.0%
-7.2%
-11%
7.9%
7.7%
7.7%
16%
44%
35%
28%
29%
Per
Capita
Income (PPP $)
GDP
Growth rate of
GDP (%)
Inflation
rate
(%)
Debt
to
foreigners
by
public & private
as % of GNI
25
The Table above provides a comparison of economic development during the last decade, showing
gradual increases in per capita income, GDP and reduction in foreign debt. However, revenue collection
has remained static and trade balance is declining significantly. Inflation too has doubled in the last few
years of the decade.
1.4.1
External Sector
During FY07, net inflow of foreign investment peaked at $8,428 million. In FY08, with 599 bomb blasts
and 59 suicide attacks, the crisis scared investors and net inflow of foreign investment fell to $5,475
million. By end-2008, the fast deteriorating balance of trade caused a balance of payment crisis. High
levels of imports of goods and services, combined with stagnant exports, were a key cause. In 2007-8
there was a trade deficit of $15 billion on goods and $6.5 billion on services.6 of The war on terror further
damaged Pakistan’s merchandise exports.7 In November 2008, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in
order to avoid a sovereign default, committed a 34-month, $11.3 billion Stand-By Arrangement (SBA).
Figure 2: Pakistan Balance of Trade (Million USD)8
According to an IMF Program Note, “Pakistan’s economy had initially made progress toward
stabilization under the program. Macroeconomic imbalances shrank and inflation fell below 10 percent in
mid-2009. More recently, however, the budget deficit has increased, reaching 6.3 percent of GDP in
2009/10, and inflation has been on the rise, recording 13 percent in March 2011.”
In 2010-11, the economy’s capacity to withstand internal and external pressures of extreme nature,
according to the Economic Survey 2010-11, was tested by devastating floods that engulfed one-fifth of
the country, jeopardizing fiscal consolidation efforts of the government.
On the external front, according to the IMF, “The external position has strengthened, the exchange rate
has been stable, and the current account deficit has narrowed considerably, helped by lower import
growth, higher exports, and a robust increase in workers’ remittances.” Foreign currency reserves have
also increased from $6.4 billion in November 2008 to over $17 billion as of May 2011.
26
Figure 3: Pakistan Exports9
The 2011 United States debt-ceiling crisis along with the European sovereign debt crisis presents Pakistan
with new challenges as well as opportunities. The talk of a W-shaped, double-dip recession in the U.S.
and the European economies in a shock of their own are bound to deflate their foreign aid portfolio. For
the Budget 2011-12, which has projected an ‘external resource’ component of Rs413 billion that may
translate into a higher budgetary deficit.
As of March 2011, monthly Workers’ Remittances for the first time crossed the billion dollar mark and
that momentum has sustained for the months of April, May, June and July. Worker remittances are a
mixed blessing. One the one hand, they assist the positive side of the balance of payments and raise
consumption. But on the other hand, they may crowd out manufactured goods exports.
The decelerating global economy is expected to depress global oil demand and Pakistan as a net oil
importer stands to gain. On the export front, Pakistan’s cotton-related exports are considered ‘non-luxury’
and thus the volume of Pakistani exports is not expected to drop much. However, the impact of the 2011
flood will adversely affect the economy.
1.4.2
Inflation
Pakistan has historically been a moderate inflation country. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for 1999-00,
2000-01 and 2001-02 was recorded at 3.58 per cent, 4.41 per cent and 3.54 per cent, respectively.
Pakistanis, accustomed to lower rates of inflation, have, as a consequence, a very low tolerance for double
digit inflation.3
According to KASB, a local investment house, YTD, CPI has averaged 14.01 percent where effective
monetary tightening and improved government discipline in latter half of fiscal year have contained the
pressures seen in the aftermath of the floods. With inflation likely to remain sticky in the immediate term,
KASB expects the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to maintain the discount rate for now.
27
Figure 4: Pakistan Inflation Rate Annual Change in CPI10
As per the latest data released by the Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS), the Consumer Price Index (CPI)
has been in the double digits for the past four years. In March 2008, the rate of inflation, as measured by
the officially calculated CPI, stood at 14 per cent. By December, the same year, the officially calculated
CPI had hit a 30-year high of 25 per cent. According to FBS, CPI for May 2011 clocked in at 13.23
percent YOY.
Stagflation
The rate of inflation is in the double digits while, at the same time, real economic growth has slowed
down to under 4 percent a year. That is classic stagflation-high rate of inflation plus low economic
growth. This is a particularly difficult situation to cure because most governmental intervention to lower
the rate of inflation adversely impacts the rate of economic growth.
The two primary drivers behind Pakistan’s stagflation are: First, growth in money supply that is way
beyond the rate of real growth in the economy and, second, supply shocks-like the escalation in the
international price of oil and frequent domestic energy shortfalls-that increase the price of production and
decrease the economy’s productive capacity.
1.4.3
Food Insecurity
In late-2006, droughts in several grain-producing countries coupled with a spike in oil prices, global food
prices began increasing. The spike in oil prices also caused an increase in the price of fertilizer and an
increase in transportation costs. In 2006, Australia, the second-largest exporter of wheat and a major
producer of rice experienced a severe drought. The 2006 harvest loss in Australia’s Murray-Darling
Basin, the 2006 North American heat wave especially in California, the 2008 destruction of rice crop in
Burma due to cyclone Nargis, the 2008 stem rust fungus invasion in Yemen and the unusually high
rainfall in India; forced some of these countries to import food grain for the first time in a very long time.
This further increased price pressures on the crop.
28
Figure 5: FAO Food Price Index11
The other powerful force behind global food inflation is ‘food for fuel’. In 2008, a World Bank policy
research working paper concluded:
“Large increases in biofuels production the United States and Europe are the main reasons behind the
steep rise in global food prices.”
According to the World Bank, “Driven in part by higher fuel costs connected to events in the Middle East
and North Africa, global food prices are 36 percent above their levels a year ago and remain volatile,
pushing people deeper into poverty.”
According to the World Bank’s Food Price Index, year-over-year price of maize has gone up by 74
percent, wheat 69 percent, soybeans 36 percent and sugar 21 percent.
The more significant impact was the irrational increase of support prices for wheat from Rs. 525 to Rs.
950 per 40 kg during 2008, which could not allow the benefit of decline in world wheat prices during
2009 onward. Consequently the food insecurity increased from 38 percent in 2003 to 48.7 percent in
200912.
According to Oxfam close to 50 million Pakistanis are now malnourished and more than 100 million
Pakistanis, around 57 percent of the population, are “not eating the same thing they did 2 years ago”
because of high food prices. An Oxfam survey claims that 75 percent of the population ends up spending
between 50-70% of their income on food, and thus more than 130 million Pakistanis are highly
“vulnerable to rising prices”.13
The prognosis, according to Oxfam, is that food security in Pakistan will “seriously worsen” as the
“sources of continued food insecurity continue unabated as Pakistan is on the brink of another monsoon
season for which the country is ill prepared and a potential new conflict in the North that is likely to result
in yet more displacement of the population.”14
1.4.4
Poverty
In 2000, Pakistan signed the Millennium Declaration agreeing to do “everything in its power to eradicate
extreme poverty and hunger and also promised to achieve other seven goals of the MDGs by 2015.”
Pakistan had also agreed to do “everything in its power” to halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion
of people living in extreme poverty. In 1990-91, as per the Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS) calorific
based poverty line, 26.1 percent of the population was below the poverty line. By 2000, the percentage of
population below the poverty line was recorded at 34.5 percent.
29
Over the past three years, double-digit inflation has caused a decline in real income and has increased the
vulnerability of lower, middle and fixed income segments of the population. Business and investor
confidence continues to erode.
Over the past four decades, head-count poverty peaked in 1969 at around 46 percent reaching a low of
around 17 percent in 1987 and then increased steadily for the following several years.15
Inflation “affects poverty mainly through its impact on real wages because nominal wages fail to increase
as fast as prices in episodes of rising inflation rates.” Latin America’s extended struggle with high rates of
inflation shows that the regressive nature of the inflation tax only has a limited impact on individuals
“below the poverty line due to their negligible average cash holdings…” but inflation wipes off the
savings of the middle class and thus increase the number of poor.16
The recently released Economy Survey 2010-11 claims that “Pakistan has experienced reduction in
absolute poverty over a four-year period (2002-2006) as poverty headcount decreased from 34.5 per cent
in 2000-2001 to 22.3 per cent in 2005-2006.” Unfortunately, successive governments that assumed power
beyond 2005-2006 have failed to officially enumerate the prevalence of poverty.
Figure 6: Proportion of population below the calorie-based poverty line17
In Pakistan the last official poverty estimates were released for the year 2005-06. Accumulated food
inflation since then is estimated at 84.9 percent. Simulation analysis based on ADB staff calculations
based on the latest POVCAL database suggests that “about one-third of the increase in global food prices
gets transmitted to domestic food prices in developing Asia. This also means that the estimated increase
in the number of poor due to a 10 percent increase in domestic food prices may have already occurred in
the region. The impact is even greater for a 20% and 30% increase, with the percentage of people living
below $1.25 per day increasing 3.9 percentage points and 5.8 percentage points, respectively. This means
an additional 128.8 million and 193.2 million poor people, respectively.”18 Thus, while no official figures
exist, due to rising food costs, high inflation and low economic growth, poverty levels in Pakistan would
surely have increased, as Figure 7 indicates.
30
Figure 7: Global Food Prices and transmission to domestic prices 19
According to the Research Consortium on Educational Outcomes and Poverty (RECOUP), “A
comparison between multidimensional and the consumption based uni-dimensional poverty estimates
using Official Poverty Line (OPL) … reveals that OPL, not only provides highly conservative
estimates of poverty, it also fails to accurately capture deprivations faced by the poor.” In order for
Pakistan to make progress towards its commitments under MDGs there has to be a “multidimensional
understanding (of poverty) as well as measurement of poverty.” Among the suggested dimensions are
education, health, consumption, child Status, livelihood, housing, electricity, assets, landholdings,
access to safe drinking water, sanitation and fuel for cooking.20
1.4.5
Feminization of Poverty
The feminization of poverty generally refers to the “growing female share of the population living under
the poverty line.”21 It marks “a change in poverty levels that it biased against women or women-headed
households.” Thus, the feminization of poverty combines poverty and gender inequalities, requiring the
special attention of policymakers and planners to ensure that allocation of resources is both pro-gender
equity and anti-poverty in its aim.22 In Pakistan, the feminization of poverty has been linked to firstly, a
perceived increase in the proportion of female-headed households (FHHs) among the poor groups and
secondly, the rise of female participation in low-return urban informal sector activities.
In Pakistan women work predominantly in the agricultural sector, with 62.7% being skilled agricultural
and fishery workers (as opposed to 31.4% of men) in 2009/10. 16% of women workers are classified as
having “elementary (unskilled) occupations” while 10.9% work in craft and related trades. 9.5% of
women work in professional and semi-professional categories, in comparison with 23.3% of men. 23
However, it is in classifying unemployment rates that a clear bias within the economic system itself is
31
manifest. Female unemployment in 2009/10 is recorded as 9.5% overall, comprising 7.2% in rural areas
and 20.8% in urban areas. This difference is to the fact that “a major portion of [the female] labour force
is working as unpaid family helper[s] in rural areas which is classified as employed.”24
The absence of sex disaggregated data in relation to poverty is quite marked in Pakistan. However, a
Time Use Study undertaken by the Ministry of Finance in 2007 made the following assessment of
structural discrimination against women: “It is noticed that most of the female’s productive life time is
spent in housekeeping activities which bear minimal relevance for galvanizing the innate faculties of
mind and body. The conclusion suggests that policies need to take into account the time that women
spend in unpaid care work and how this might constrain their ability to engage in other activities,
including learning and income-earning; and the need to acknowledge the contribution that this unpaid
care work makes to the well-being of the nation and the productivity of the country’s people.”25
The Global Gender Gap Index of 2011 which placed Pakistan 133rd out of 135 countries, has ranked the
country 134th in women’s Economic Participation and Opportunity, 127th in Educational Attainment,
123rd in Health and Survival, but 54th in Political Empowerment.26
At least six factors have been behind the feminization of poverty in Pakistan.27 They are: (i) the
“perception of the greater investment value of the survival of boys in comparison with girls.” (ii) The
opportunity “for getting outside work and paid employment.” (iii) The “perception of “who is
‘contributing’ how much to the joint prosperity of the family.” (iv) Intra-household “inequalities and son
preference.” (v) That “boys can be counted on for old-age security of parents.” (vi) Women are
“perceived to either contribute less in terms of their labor and income-generating capacity, or to be a drain
on the household budget because of the costly requirements of marriage.”
As a consequence, there is an “unequal allocation of resources within households resulting in differential
allotments of nutrition and healthcare.” The above factors are “cultural patterns” that may “themselves be
the product of poverty, but they also perpetuate household and community poverty.” Work addressing the
feminization of poverty should link to CEDAW and other relevant international conventions that Pakistan
is a signatory, ensuring that the approach is rights-based.28
1.4.6
Debt
On 6 June 2010, Budget 2010-2011 had projected a budgetary deficit of Rs 685 billion ($8 billion). By
May 2011, the deficit was estimated to have crossed Rs1 trillion ($11.4 billion). On 3 June 2011, Budget
2011-2012 projected a deficit of Rs950 billion ($ 10.8 billion) – the highest in the country’s history.
Figure 8: External and Domestic Debts29
Domestic Debt
External Debt
5
60
4.5
50
4
40
3
$ Billion
Rs Trillion
3.5
2.5
2
30
20
1.5
1
10
0.5
0
0
2000-2010
2006-2010
32
In order the fill the budgetary gap the government has two choices: borrow from the banking system or
further expand the money supply. Borrowing such a huge amount from the banking system will ‘crowd
out’ the private sector and push the already high rate of interest even higher. Expanding the money supply
will mean even higher rates of inflation.
Over the past three years, the government has been on a borrowing binge, both internally as well as
externally.7 The Pakistan: Fiscal Policy Statement 2010-11 issued by the Ministry of Finance indicates
that the total public debt for FY 2010 is 60.6% of GDP and this reflects a steady increase from FY 2006
onwards.30
Table 1: Pakistan’s Public Debt 2003 - 2010
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
(In Billions of Pakistan Rupees)
Domestic
Currency
Debt
1,852
1,995
2,152
2,320
2,600
3,266
3,853
4,651
Foreign
Currency
Debt
1,771
1,816
1,913
2,038
2,201
2,778
3,776
4,243
Total
Public Debt
3,623
3,810
4,065
4,357
4,802
6,044
7,629
8,894
GDP
4,876
5,641
6,500
7,623
8,673
10,243
12,739
14,668
67.6%
62.5%
57.2%
55.4%
59.0%
59.9%
60.6%
Total
Public Debt
74.3%
(as % of
GDP)
1.4.7
Money Supply
The current inflationary spiral has its roots in fiscal 2007-08, when the federal government’s budgetary
deficit skyrocketed from Rs377 billion ($ 4.5 billion) in 2006-07 to Rs777 billion ($9.2 billion) in 200708; a jump of more than 100 percent in a year.
The huge gap between government revenue and its stream of expenditures has to be filled either by
borrowing from the banking sector or the expansion of money supply. The government has ingeniously
devised a whole host of devices to fill its ever-ballooning deficit. The government has unfunded debt that
includes Defense Savings Certificates, Bahbood Savings Certificates, Mahana Amdani Accounts, Khas
Deposit Accounts, Special Savings Certificates and Regular Income Certificates. Then there is floating
debt that includes Treasury Bills and Ad-hoc Treasury Bills. On top of all that there is permanent debt
that includes prize bonds, Federal Government Bonds, market loans and Federal Investment Bonds.
Over the past five years, M3, the broadest measure of money supply, has gone up from Rs4.375 trillion to
around Rs8 trillion. This growth in money supply is critical because money supply is directly linked to
inflation.31
33
1.4.8
Informal Economy
In 2009-10, Pakistan’s documented economy produced goods and services worth Rs14.4 trillion ($170
billion)32, which is a substantial segment of national income. Estimates on the potential size of the
informal economy range from a low of 10 percent to a high of 30 percent placing the value of goods and
services produced by the informal sector at between $17 billion to $50 billion. A recent study suggests
that the informal economy has declined from 30% of GDP in 2003 to 20% in 2008, with the State Bank of
Pakistan estimating its value at approximately $34 billion in 2009/10.33
Pakistan’s informal economy primarily comprises: (i) The illegal economy-economic activities that
produce goods and services the production of which violates legal statues such as arms trafficking, drug
trafficking and prostitution. (ii) The unreported economy-economic activities that produce goods and
services but evade FBR’s tax code and evade labour laws/regulations such as contributions to EOBI,
minimum wage laws, age limits, working conditions, etc. Some of the latter category of activities can be
attributed to the regulatory burden.
Economic activities that take place within the informal sector not only create huge costs for legitimate
economic activities but also weaken states and threaten development opportunities keeping countries
trapped in cycles of poverty and instability.34 Activities of international organized crime groups and
insurgent and extremist groups active in conflict zones throughout the world are financed through the
informal sector. There is a feedback loop between the illegal economy and economic inequalities.
Economic inequalities provide an enabling environment for illicit trade, corruption and organized crime.
In turn, the proceeds reinforce the power of the privileged, while undermining economic development by
raising the costs of doing legitimate business, thereby increasing inequalities both within and between
countries.35
1.4.9
Rapid Population Growth
Pakistan, with 180 million population, is the planet’s sixth most populous country. Over the past six
decades, Pakistan’s urban population has increased by more than sevenfold whereby close to 37 percent
of the population is now urban making Pakistan the second most urbanized country in South Asia.
Pakistan’s median age of 21.2 years-with a global range of 48.9 for Monaco and 15 for Uganda-makes
Pakistan one of the world’s youngest of countries. By 2050, with an annual growth rate estimated at 2.07
percent, Pakistan is expected to become the fourth most populous state. Pakistan’s population growth rate,
its age structure, income distribution and the development of its human capital could be the principal
determinants of the economy’s productive capacity.
According to the Economic Survey 2010-11, “Pakistan’s population has been growing at a decelerating
pace but still Pakistan has one of the highest population growth rates in the world. Population growth has
decelerated from 3.06 percent in 1981 to 2.07 percent in 2011.”
34
Figure 9: Global Median Age36
Pakistan’s population growth rate is decelerating, the working age population is expanding and the age
dependency ratio is on its way down. All of these factors point towards a demographic transition with the
potential of a huge demographic dividend resulting in a “rise in the rate of economic growth due to a
rising share of working age people in the population.”
By 2030, Pakistan’s working age population is expected to be around 67 percent from the current 54.9
percent. There are two issues in relation with Pakistan’s high population growth, similar to a doubleedged sword. The first, which is positive, is related to the demographic dividend, where a higher
proportion of young working aged population can support the economy. This is providing adequate
gender-sensitive economic growth takes place to accommodate and employ young men and women into
the work force (the working age population is usually defined as being the 15-65 year old segment of the
population, not all of whom will be employed in the labour market due to disabilities or domestic
responsibilities, for example).The second point relates to a potentially negative factor known as the youth
bulge. This refers to unemployed youths, mainly male, who are not gainfully employed by the economy,
and who may turn to crime, violence, drug addiction as well as being ready recruits for rebel
organizations in the context of civil war. So too, young women’s needs should be addressed as a matter of
the highest priority.
Figure 10: Pakistan - Age Dependency Ratio of Working- Age Population37
The demographic dividend has to be reaped within a demographic window of opportunity.
The Commission on Population and Development defines that window as the period “when the
proportion of children and youth under 15 years falls below 30 per cent and the proportion of people 65
years and older is still below 15 per cent.” According to the Woodrow Wilson International Center for
Scholars, Pakistan’s “population promises to remain youthful over the next few decades. In the 2020s, the
15-24 age bracket is expected to swell by 20 percent. Pakistan’s under-24 population will still be in the
majority come 2030. And as late as 2050, the median age is expected to be only 33.”38
35
Europe’s demographic transition opened up the demographic window in 1950 and that remained open for
a good 50 years. The Chinese window opened up in 1990 and is expected to remain open till 2015.
Pakistan’s window of opportunity can only be exploited if sufficient infrastructure is in place; there is an
emphasis on education and human capital accumulation, both of which contribute to economic growth
that can employ its growing youthful population.
However, the Framework for Economic Growth states: “With almost two-thirds of the population (68.4
per cent) below the age of 30, Pakistan is going to experience a youth bulge in coming years, which is
likely to change the age structure of labor force over the next couple of decades.”39 A study by Population
Action International suggests a “strong correlation between countries prone to civil conflicts and those
with burgeoning youth populations. Social scientists label this demographic profile ‘youth bulge,’ and its
potential to destabilize countries in the developing world is gaining wider acceptance among the
American foreign policy community. The theory contends that societies with rapidly growing young
populations often end up with rampant unemployment and large pools of disaffected youths who are more
susceptible to recruitment into rebel or terrorist groups. Countries with weak political institutions are most
vulnerable to youth-bulge-related violence and social unrest.”
A paper by the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics neatly summarizes the situation: “For
economic benefits to materialize, there is a need for policies dealing with education, public health, and
those that promote labor market flexibility and provide incentives for investment and savings. On the
contrary, if appropriate policies are not formulated, the demographic dividend might in fact be a cost,
leading to unemployment and an unbearable strain on education, health, and old age security.”40
1.4.10 Urbanization
In 1998, Pakistan’s population of 130.58 million was 32.5% urban. In 2010, the urban population was
estimated at 63.1 million.41 These challenges are compounded by the emergence of Meta urban regions
around a large city with more than 100,000 urban settlements in the proximity of 50 km connected by
transport and communications and with strong economic and social linkages. Such Meta urban regions
and cities are assuming the role of engines of economic growth.42 To improve competitiveness and
business environment, an expansion in urban city markets, promotion of cluster development,
improvement in urban governance, skill development and autonomous local governments are needed.
However caution is needed to avoid further increasing the urbanization growth rate and therefore all these
interventions should neither be at the expense of rural development nor the shifting of resources towards
urban centres.
The major developmental challenges in this context are infrastructure deficit, urban poverty and
unemployment, inconsistent future ambitions for urban Pakistan, gaps in urban sectoral policies like those
for local economies, housing, land, primary and secondary education and basic heath,43 energy and fuel,
increasing informal subdivision of land for housing, a limited recognition of informal sector as provider
of wide ranging urban services, increasing pollution, terror attacks, crime and vulnerability to natural
calamities and the absence of mass transit systems and increasing investment for facilitating private road
transport. The coping strategies need to be ‘urban’ rather than sectoral therefore the economic, social,
governance and environmental strategies should relate to each other. For this to happen, the elected local
Government should have the authority and resources to devise and implement its own city plan.
1.4.11 Government Expenditure
In terms of development expenditure, the national budget for social protection has doubled from 0.88% in
2007/8 to 1.65% in 2009/10, though in real terms this is still small. Actual expenditure on social
36
protection, however, reflects the opposite trend. In 2007/8 expenditure was 160% of the budget, whereas
in 2009/10 it was under 60% and actually reflected 55% lower value in rupee terms. 44 Housing and
Community Amenities accounted for 12% of the budget and 14% of expenditure in 2007/8, and 15% of
the budget and nearly 17% of expenditure in 2009/10.
The budget for Health increased by 150% (not accounting for inflation) in this two year period but
expenditure remained the same. Education appears to be regularly under-spent, with only 30% of the
allocated budget in 2009/10 being expended. Construction and Transport remains the largest single item,
accounting for 43% of both the total budget and expenditure in 2009/10. Overall, in 2007/8, 2008/9 and
2009/10, 72%, 89% and 70% of the budget was expended respectively, pointing to a significant capacity
gap, especially at the provincial level.45 The lack of sex disaggregated data in the budget and fiscal
analyses is a gap that needs to be addressed.
Another concern is that “overall, provinces recover less than five percent of recurring expenditure on
services. The highest level of recurrent cost recovery is for community services [9.6% in 2000 increased
to 24.4% in 2010] and irrigation [43.2% in 2000 decreased to 22.2% in 2010].”46 Here too provincial
disparities are stark with poorer provinces lagging behind: cost recovery for community services in 2010
ranged from 54.9% in Punjab to 1.9% in Balochistan. Yet, Balochistan was the only province which
should an increase in recovery percentage between 2000 and 2010, while overall cost recovery declined
from 6.8% to 4.8%, and no province had a recovery rate of over 6%.
37
2
Inclusive Growth
2.1 Situation Analysis
Although Pakistan has seen sustained periods of economic growth, these have not always translated into
proportionate poverty reduction.47 Growth, holding the distribution of income constant, lowers poverty,
but truly pro-poor and inclusive growth requires an improvement in the distribution of income which has
not occurred.48 The poverty head count using the purchasing power parity (PPP) $1.25 a day international
poverty line is 41%. The distribution of income shows a GINI coefficient of 32.7, based on consumption.
According to a UN study, The “second significant period when high growth rates did not get translated
into rapid or sustained poverty reduction gains was the most recent period from around 2002 till 2007
when once again, perceptions of rising inequalities led to political alienation from the economic model
being pursued.”49
Around 1960 Pakistan and South Korea were at about the same level of GDP per capita. The evolution of
their economies since that time may even be considered a natural experiment. Half a century later the gulf
between the two has widened considerably with South Korea ranking as a developed country, yet
Pakistan’s historical growth rates are not poor by global or developing country standards.
There can be two issues of importance here, neither of which is mutually exclusive. The first may relate to
the fact that Pakistan’s growth rates although impressive have not resulted in human development 50
Secondly, it may be argued that unlike in East Asia, and neighbouring India since the 1990s, Pakistan’s
growth rate has stalled.
The next question is, why is growth important for human development, human security or a rights or
capability based approach to development? The answer lies in the fact that for a poor low-income
developing country like Pakistan redistribution alone can only make the mass of people slightly less poor.
Hence, there is no option but to expand the size of the cake, because it creates the potential for human
development. Redistributive policies matter, in order for growth to be inclusive. In summary, there are
two issues to be examined: (1) Growth has not resulted in adequate human development; (2) growth itself
has slowed since the 1980s, with a downward trend
As Easterly (2001) argued a decade ago, countries at the same level of per-capita income compared to
Pakistan, and also countries with similar growth rates have achieved more in terms of education and
health indicators. Its health, educational outcomes are poor. Illiteracy is high, especially female illiteracy,
and education is elitist. Also, no efforts at population control to reap benefits of something called the
demographic dividend. This happens when the share of the dependent population (in Pakistan’s case
children) decline. In other words, when the birth rate falls, at some point in the future the 15-65 aged
group becomes a larger fraction of the population; since they are “productive”, the economy gains. Why?
Two factors according to Easterly (2001): the interests of the ruling elite, and inter-regional or ethnic
conflict.
Modern growth relate this phenomenon to factors (a) its proximate causes, that is the right policies; and
(b) long-term institutional factors.51
The right policies include the right trade and industrial policies as well as sound macroeconomic
management (inflation control, sustainable budget deficits, sound balance of payments and exchange rate
management). Moreover, growth is related to human capital and health, thus the new growth theory
confirms what is included in the UNDP’s HDI index. Much is known about these and does not require
further elaboration.
38
The institutional factors explain the long-run, and are less well known. That may be why Korea did well
and Pakistan did not despite both countries pursuing similar policies (obviously more vigorously and
successfully applied in South Korea). The argument is as follows.
Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson (2005) have produced the most influential recent theoretical basis for
the role of institutions in determining long-term growth. They argue that political and economic
institutions need to be differentiated. The latter are mainly related to property rights and contract
enforcement, which are associated with the rule of law. Political institutions pertain to both formal rules
(the constitution or long established conventions), as well as the informal exercise of power. In many
ways, this corresponds to North’s (1990)52 distinction between formal and informal institutions. Formal
political institutions are slow to change, as evidenced by the infrequency with which constitutions are
altered. Informal political institutions refer to the power of the influential, and are very much related to
the distribution of income or wealth. Political institutions and the distribution of wealth are the two state
variables that jointly determine economic institutions, which in turn determine economic performance or
growth, and the future distribution of resources and political institutions.
According to Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson (2005) the conditions for the development of good
economic institutions consist of53 firstly, constraints upon the executive and a degree of democracy with
separation of powers. With less than perfect democracies, few checks on the elected executive, unbridled
power in office may lead to economic policies that only enrich narrow support groups. Some actually set
about actively dismantling or undermining checks on their executive power, such as the independence of
the judiciary. Secondly; the enforcement of property rights (necessary to secure investment) are broad
based and are not confined to an elite group’s interests. Otherwise predation will be common; violence is
the easiest means of protecting the vast estates of the wealthy few. In other words, societies with less
inequality and a powerful middle-class are more likely to devise superior economic institutions. Finally,
when there are few “rents” that can be appropriated by a small group---implying the absence of rents that
can be easily captured is also a condition for the emergence of more sound economic institutions.
Pakistan, unlike South Korea, has not moved up the technological ladder. It is not just because of Korea’s
special relationship with the USA. Pakistan too has been occasionally blessed and showered with aid.
Pakistan’s exports are unskilled labour intensive. It also exports raw labour: worker remittances are a
major source of income in the current account of the balance of payments positive side. Pakistan’s
comparative advantage appears to lie in unskilled labour intensive services (manpower). Yet, there are
some success stories like Sialkot’s surgical instruments industrial cluster.
Dani Rodrik 54 has proposed a diagnostic methodology for searching for the more binding constraints on
growth. This manner of proceeding is predicated by the fact that institutions are slow to change, but
policy makers cannot wait for fundamental institutional improvement before attempting to foster
economic growth and poverty reduction. Given the presence of many distortions in the economy, the
removal of a single problem can cause matters to get worse, unless that particular distortion is a major
constraint on growth. The Planning Commission’s framework for economic growth is an example of this
diagnostic methodology.
The rest of this chapter addresses long-term factors that impede inclusive growth, followed by policies to
tackle these in the context of framework for economic growth.
39
2.2 Inequalities and the Long Term Factors for Inclusive Growth Failure
In Pakistan, historical and geographical patterns have long been behind economic, social and political
exclusion of large segments of the population. Inequality of economic opportunity is of two types:
distributional and structural. Distributional inequalities persist primarily because of three factors: the
government’s fiscal policy, the government’s commodity operations and monopolized markets. Structural
inequality has four dimensions: gender, regional, economic class and social identity. This section
examines each of these dimensions and then analyses the causes of these factors.
Figure 11: Structure of Inequalities in Pakistan
For the purpose of this Assessment Pakistani households as opposed to individuals will be treated as the
primary unit of analysis because most empirical studies in this field have considered a Pakistani
household as the primary unit of production as well as that of consumption.
2.2.1
Distributional Inequalities
Distributional inequalities have acted as market distortions raising the prices of goods including food.
This section examines fiscal policy and rent seeking behaviour.
2.2.1.1 Fiscal Policy
Taxation serves at least two other major purposes: redistribution that is collecting from the rich and
spending on the poor-or vice versa-and re-pricing that either discourages or encourages particular
economic activities. For fiscal 2011-12, the Government of Pakistan is projecting to collect 64 percent of
the entire tax revenue from indirect taxes and 36 percent from direct taxes55. Indirect taxes are regressive
in nature in the sense that they take “a larger percentage of the income of low income people than of highincome people.” The impact is to increase inequalities between households. Indirect taxes may “increase
the price of a good so that consumers are actually paying the tax by paying more for the products.” Fiscal
policy, therefore, has a direct impact on disposable incomes. According to the Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations (FAO), “Poor urban households spend from 60 to 80 percent of their
income on food.”56 The rural off-farm and small farmers spending on food increased considerably,
especially of wheat flour being the major food item. Increased by 131 percent as compared to 50 percent
in wage rate compared the pre-crises (May 2007) to present (May 2011)57.
According to Dr. Aisha Ghaus-Pasha of the Institute of Public Policy, Beaconhouse National University,
“Pakistan’s overall tax-to-GDP ratio has remained stagnant at around 10-11% or so and, in fact, has
40
shown a decline in recent years. Today Pakistan has a lower tax-to-GDP ratio compared to other Asian
countries like Sri Lanka (13 percent), India (16 percent), Indonesia (15 percent), Malaysia (14 percent),
Thailand (17 percent), Philippines (14 percent), and South Korea (16 percent).”
Looking at individual taxes, the significance of customs duty and central excise duty within the overall
tax pie has gone done while the contribution from direct taxes and sales taxes has gone up. The picture
therefore is a mixed one whereby the government has not been able to increase the tax-to-GDP ratio but
revenue losses from a decrease in customs duties as a consequence of trade liberalization have been
recouped through a steady increase in Sales and income taxes collection.
While tax coverage remains low the Islamabad Chamber of Commerce and Industry suggests that the
“government should look into reforming the tax collections and filling process to foster greater public
trust in tax authorities, eradicate the occurrence of corruption and make the system fair.” According to the
Institute of Public Policy, “The way forward … is the implementation of a resource mobilization strategy
which has three pillars: expansion of the current GST to cover services and exempt and zero-rated sectors;
improvement of direct/income tax administration; and enhancement in the provincial tax- to-GDP ratio.”
2.2.1.2 Rent Seeking
Rent-seeking is defined as the “practice of an individual, company or government attempting to make a
profit without making a product or producing wealth without contributing to society…by manipulating
the social or political environment in which economic activities occur, rather than by adding value.”58
Commodity operations and monopolized markets are the main manifestations of this in Pakistan.
Commodity operations
The real objective of food stock management through the use of a government support price mechanism
was to enhance food security. Government-run commodity operations were modest to begin with but have
since expanded to an extent where the governments of Punjab and Sindh plus the Trading Corporation of
Pakistan (TCP) and Passco now collectively borrow hundreds of billions of rupees to finance the purchase
of wheat, sugar, urea and rice. This, at times, may not have been in the best interest of end-consumers.
In May 2011, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reportedly informed the Monetary and Fiscal Coordination Board that “government borrowing for commodity operations is likely to touch Rs425 billion”
by fiscal end 2011.59 As of April 2011, “outstanding on account of commodity operation stood at Rs276.5
billion for wheat, sugar, urea and rice. Punjab and Sindh governments owed Rs99 billion and Rs17 billion
respectively whereas Passco and TCP have to clear Rs61.1 billion and Rs99.3 billion, respectively. The
borrowing includes Rs175 billion for wheat, Rs44.7 billion for sugar, Rs41.1 billion for urea and Rs15.2
billion for rice.”60
Regrettably, due to inefficiency and lack of federal-provincial coordination, these commodity operations
result in a reduction in the purchasing power of the poor who reduced spending on non-food items to
compensate for basic food need. Thus, food insecurity drastically shoots up.
Monopolized Markets
Collusive practices to set prices and prevent competition exacerbate existing inequalities. On 11 January
2010, the Competition Commission of Pakistan (CCP) held the country’s first National Conference on
Competition Regime in Pakistan. The conference was organized “to provide a platform for the exchange
of information on a number of competition-related issues in various sectors of the country’s economy.” A
report titled ‘State of Competition’ asserts that Pakistan has had a long history of rent-seeking behavior
by the business community which needed to be dealt with decisively sooner rather than later.28
41
There is evidence that members of some business associations have been-and continue to-engage in
collusive behavior that maximizes profits for the members at the cost of consumers thus intensifying the
existing inequalities.61
2.2.2
Structural Inequalities
There are at least four kinds of structural inequalities that exist in Pakistan: gender, regional, economic
class and social identity.
Figure 12: Structural Inequalities in Pakistan
2.2.2.1 Gender-based inequalities
According to a World Bank report, “the issues of gender inequality in Pakistan are well documented, less
is known about what drives these gender differences and what policy levers are at hand to effect
change.”62
Gender-based inequalities are typically divided up into two categories: economic and non-economic. The
two commonly used indicators for economic inequality are labor force participation and asset ownership.
In the non-economic category are indicators on education, health and political participation. Section 4
examines the differentials relating to factors such as labor force participation, education and health.
2.2.2.2 Regional Inequalities
In Pakistan, regional inequality is an important dimension of overall inequality. Regional inequalities fall
into three categories: infrastructure, social services and economic opportunities. Inequalities are
geographic with inter-regional as well as intra-regional inequalities. The PIDE inequality rankings of
2003 “show wide disparities between as well as within provinces. Punjab and Sindh turn out to be more
developed for a range of indicators than Balochistan, NWFP and FATA. Within provinces there are
important dualities. In Punjab, for example there is a sharp divide between north-central parts of the
province and its south. In Sindh the main source of duality is the disparity between Karachi and the rest of
the province.”63
Dr. Akmal Hussain states, “It is important to note that not only does the overall growth rate of provincial
income vary between provinces but recent research suggests that there is also considerable interprovincial variation in the level of poverty and changes over time.”64
42
There are also political and demographic dimensions. According to the World Development Report 2006,
“Weak resource endowments and distance from markets can constrain development in lagging regions. In
many cases, economic differences are linked with longstanding, unequal relations of power between
advantaged and lagging regions, and institutional weaknesses within the latter.” Concentration of
disadvantaged Identity Based Groups (IBGs) in regions causes regional inequalities. The situation may be
made worse by the regional elites who hijack power.65
2.2.2.3 Economic Class
Inequalities based on a household’s belonging to a particular economic class seem to be dependent on
asset ownership and is more prevalent in rural rather than urban areas. In regions where “asset ownership
is highly unequal, economic mobility can be constrained even under conditions of apparently open
markets. Entrenched class inequalities, particularly in rural areas, are known to be impediments to equal
citizenship, economic productivity, and poverty reduction….”66 Gender bias in claiming assets,
inheritance and access to justice are also determinants of the economic class of individuals and female
headed households.
2.2.2.4 Social Identity
Social identity influences the functioning of Pakistan’s formal and informal institutions. “The labor
market, for example, is not always anonymous and a person’s identity can be an important determinant of
opportunities. This is partly due to discrimination and party because of the importance of personal
reference and group-based collective action in contract enforcement. Studies of bonded labor have also
revealed that a key common element among vulnerable workers is that they belong to historically
marginalized groups that have relatively restricted access to political voice or state functionaries.”67
2.3 Causal Analysis
Pakistan’s tax-to-GDP ratio continues to be one of the lowest in the world. The macro policy regime,
particularly the non-implementation of the government’s anti-monopoly policy and multi-billion rupee
commodity operations distort the market and encourage rent seeking behavior.
A regressive policy regime formulated by a combination of special interest groups has been instrumental
in creating and perpetuating inequalities as well as exclusions. Such exclusions and inequalities have
impeded the alleviation of poverty even during sustained periods of economic growth.
43
Figure 13: The interplay of Processes, Policies and Consequences
Legal
Exemptions
Fiscal Policy
Commodity Operations
Competition Policy
Poverty
Inequality
Exclusion
Pakistan’s tax structure is affected by small coverage and low compliance. The upper tax brackets have
been allowed substantial rate discounts. A large chunk of personal income tax is in practice collected as
withholding tax. Revenue from indirect taxation predominates.
In effect, tax policies to redistribute income and wealth need a revisit. Such policies require political will
and administrative capacity. In order to alleviate poverty and reduce inequalities the question of who will
pay income taxes has to be answered in terms of ‘source neutrality’-everyone pays regardless of the
source including the income generated from agricultural sources. The question of how much will they pay
has to be answered in terms of ability-to-pay and the progressive structure of income taxation.
Presently, public policy encourages rent seeking which leads to under investment in infrastructure and in
human capital.
2.3.1.1 Current Electoral Order
Around two-third of all directly contested National Assembly constituencies are rural or rural-cum-urban.
In most of these constituencies “Biradari seems to be stronger than political fidelity as far as motivations
for voting behavior are concerned. Two elements are required for the victory of a candidate; one is the
ticket of a major political party and the other is the favor of a major biradari.”68
The prevailing electoral order, in effect, divides up the entire rural population into two categories:
Zamindar (landlord/cultivator) and Kammi (Services/occupational cast/non-cultivator/manual working
class), though there is geographical variation. As per election data from 1977, 1985, 1988, 1990, 1993,
1997 and 2002 the winners in rural areas in for example Punjab are always from land-owning classes like
Jatt, Rajput, Arian, Gujar and Kharal.69 The Kammi has little or no interaction with the State. The
Zamindar acts as the State for the Kammi providing livelihood and resolving disputes. The Kammi holds
and operates on ‘survival values’ whereby his/her primary concerns are physical and economic security.
So in elections the Kammi are prone to analyze the candidates strictly on the basis of physical and
economic security rather than some higher values of quality of life.
44
Election data from 1977, 1985, 1988, 1990, 1993, 1997 and 2002 clearly shows that the candidates’
ability to manipulate patron-client relationships is the major determinant. Winning elections in rural areas
is about two things: one, the creation of ‘patron-client’ relationships; and, two, the use of human
networks. After winning an election the winning candidate has to pay off ‘human network debts’ in terms
of providing for and protecting the client (sometimes from the State). Voters that are not part of the
patron-client relationship may be at a disadvantage.
Gender bias also plays an important part in the exclusion of women from public life. Very few tickets are
awarded to women however some of the possible negative consequences such an exclusion have been
mitigated with the introduction of women’s seats in the parliament.
2.4 Rights Holders and Duty Bearers
Rights holders are voters; consumers, especially those with an income of less than $1.25 a day; and
taxpayers, especially those paying indirect taxes. Duty bearers are parliamentarians, the Election
Commission of Pakistan, the Federal Board of Revenue, the Competition Commission of Pakistan, the
Supreme Court and provincial High Courts, the business elite, the Trading Corporation of Pakistan, and
the Pakistan Agricultural Storage and Services Corporation. Given the above analysis the Election
Commission and Competition Commission could provide potential entry points for interventions.
The Planning Commission of the Government of Pakistan has now presented the strategic framework for
growth should therefore be read as the future plan of the most important duty bearer for inclusive growth.
2.4.1
Framework for Economic Growth70
According to the Planning Commission’s Framework for Economic Growth the principal challenge is to
be able to translate the ‘youth bulge’ due to its rapid economic growth into a ‘demographic dividend’
within a demographic window of opportunity. The new growth strategy, in that sense, is pragmatic,
prudent and practical-all in one.
In the 1970s, Pakistan’s GDP comprised of 40 percent agriculture, 25 percent industry and 35 percent
services. By 2010, the shares of the various sectors in GDP were as follows: 20 percent agriculture, 30
percent industry and 50 percent services. Agricultural employment, however, outstrips its share of GDP.
The share of services in GDP rises with growth, as the economy matures, but most services are mainly an
input into other productive sectors of the economy, including agriculture and manufacturing.
The new growth strategy’s recommendation is to focus on “economic governance, institutions, incentives
and human resources.” One of the principal reasons behind this recommendation is that Pakistan is short
of capital needed to invest in physical infrastructure-brick, mortar, machinery and equipment. According
to the Framework there has been an “undue emphasis (over 60 percent of PSDP) on brick and mortar.”
The recommendation does not need huge amounts of capital and has the potential of generating growth –
growth that Pakistan cannot live without. The aim is to increase productivity. This has two facets, the rate
of return on investment has to become higher, which in turn will raise labour productivity, particularly in
manufacturing, enabling the economy to become an exporter of manufactured goods along the lines of
other East and South Asian economies.71
How can productivity of investment be improved? This involves identifying the constraints to economic
growth. These include infrastructural improvement, the availability of power supply and increasing the
attractiveness of productive sector investment, all determining factors for global competitiveness.
Pakistan ranks low on the Global Competitiveness Index among south and Southeast Asian countries
(Table 2). The new growth strategy has two specific recommendations: Increase competitiveness and ease
45
entry and exit. How can profitability of private investment be increased? The new growth strategy has
three specific recommendations: improve the investment climate; reduce costs of doing business; remove
impediments to entrepreneurship. How can investment be encouraged? The new growth strategy has three
specific recommendations focusing on a commercial judicial system, a reformed taxation system and
newer bureaucratic (regulatory) practices, but does not identify the key areas that need change to provide
equal access and opportunities for women.
The Framework argues that “infrastructure in Pakistan (hardware of economic growth) is at least of a
similar quality to that in our neighbors. However, they point out that other missing factors (such as
innovation, entrepreneurship, markets etc.) impact negatively on the country's competitiveness and need
urgent attention. While hardware of growth cannot be ignored given the current infrastructure shortages in
the country, the point is of relative weakness—Pakistan is much weaker in software than in hardware.
Development focus is therefore to be reoriented towards factors that are part of the software of economic
growth.”
Table 2: Global Competitiveness Index72
Global
Competitiveness
Index
Quality of
Electricity
Supply
ICT Usage
Quality of
Roads
Quality of
Railroad
Quality of
Port
Infrastructure
Quality of
Air
Transport
Malaysia
26
40
50
21
20
19
29
Thailand
38
42
79
36
57
43
28
China
27
52
78
53
27
67
79
Indonesia
44
97
103
84
56
96
69
Vietnam
59
98
70
117
59
97
88
Philippines
85
101
106
114
97
131
112
India
51
110
118
90
23
83
71
Pakistan
123
128
109
72
55
73
81
The youth bulge has to be converted into a demographic dividend. New engines of growth have to be
located for economic growth. The potential of rapid growth out of rural areas is limited. The new strategy
proposes a complete transformation of our highly restrictive urban zoning laws which have “impeded the
growth of domestic commerce and hampered the role of cities as generators of economic growth.”
According to the Ministry of Industries and Production, Pakistan’s manufacturing sector has an excess
capacity that in 2009-10 stood at 51 per cent. There were three major reasons behind that underutilization: a severely constrained energy sector, the high cost of production and depressed external
demand. Accumulated manufacturing losses because of the shortfall in energy have been estimated to be
around 2.5 percent of GDP. According to Asian Productivity Organization labor productivity in
Pakistan’s manufacturing sector is higher than in India and Bangladesh (but lower than in China). 73
The Framework asserts that the productivity and the competitiveness of the manufacturing sector can be
enhanced through governance and institutional reforms. The Framework further claims that at the
“present level of investment and institutional functioning, Pakistan's potential GDP growth rate is of the
order of 5–6 per cent a year. Given the right policies and a modicum of good luck, it should not be
impossible to get the economy back to a growth rate of between 5–6 per cent in a reasonable time,
especially given the extent of unused capacity that exists in the manufacturing sector.”
46
The Framework suggests that the agriculture sector on its own does not have the potential of absorbing
the youth bulge and thus the focus ought to move from agriculture to the services sector and from rural
areas to cities as the new engines of economic growth.
The Framework of Economic Growth is about new engines of growth, economic governance,
strengthening of existing institutions and a re-focus on the software of growth-rather than hardware. And
the new engines of growth are to be driven by the private sector with the government acting as a
facilitator to entrepreneurship and innovation.
The recent budgetary allocations suggest that the strategic aims of the Framework for Economic Growth
will take some more time to be fully implemented in terms of tax and incentive policies.
2.5 Conclusion
In summary, inclusive growth strategies require a holistic approach which combine the right policies
particularly with regard to infrastructure, education (human capital) and health, along with an improved
institutional environment concerning governance, which address structural or enduring inequalities and a
rapidly growing population (that could be both a blessing or a curse).
Pakistan needs reductions in the cost of doing business and removal of the impediments to
entrepreneurship, especially for women. Constraints in the energy sector will also need to be addressed;
accumulated manufacturing losses because of the shortfall in energy have been estimated to be around 2.5
percent of GDP. For growth to be inclusive and to reduce the inequalities that presently exist, the
distributional and structural inequalities examined in this chapter will need to be addressed. Some of these
are also related to economic governance but some will require targeted interventions, for example to
ensure that excluded groups will also benefit from the job creation that the growth strategy forecasts.
Pakistan’s growth potential, with effective implementation of governance and institutional reforms could
pay a dividend not just in terms of economic growth but, coupled with reforms of the tax system,
dividends in terms of overall human development. Strategies will need to be in place that utilize
Pakistan’s young working aged population in terms of a demographic dividend, rather than the threats
posed by a youth bulge. Furthermore, improved political institutions with greater democratic
accountability will only serve to foster economic growth via institutional improvement.
However, the vast rural agrarian population’s needs and aspirations too should be addressed by an overarching strategy that does not limit itself to urban growth, thereby treating all Pakistanis’ rights as equally
important and underscoring the State’s obligation as duty bearer towards all citizens.
47
3 Environment and Sustainable Energy
3.1 Introduction
The pattern of resource use to meet the needs of the present generation of Pakistan has been eroding the
ability of her future generations to meet their needs. The forecast for the potential impact of climate
change on the long and short term development in Pakistan and the investment required to cope with it are
not encouraging. Pakistan is counted among the Worlds’ top 10 countries that are highly vulnerable to
the impacts of climate change. The vulnerability and exposure of natural resources and ecosystems; and
large segments of population puts enormous challenges on the human and economic development of the
country.
The challenge of environmentally sustainable development also puts strains on the energy requirements of
a growing economy. The United Nations General Assembly adopted resolution to declare 2012 is
declared as “International Year of Sustainable Energy” for all because there is a close nexus between
energy and development. Reasons are several. First, without access to modern energy services, it is
difficult to effectively provide modern health services, improve agricultural productivity through
increased value-added product processing, get the full benefit of improved educational systems, support
democratic governance through communication with citizens, or building an economic base that can
participate in today’s globalized economy74.
There is a direct link of energy and MDGs from poverty alleviation to gender empowerment, which must
be predicated on equal access and opportunities for men and women. To protect environment and prevent
against pulmonary and ophthalmological diseases, people also require energy access at the household
level. Access to basic needs like water and health services is linked to availability of power. According to
a World Bank study, access to electricity can be correlated to the number of people living in poverty75. Of
course, correlations do not equate to causality, but as documented in USAID’s 2006 report on ‘The Role
of Energy in Development’, access to modern energy services can be a powerful enabler for economic
and social development, while the lack is an obstacle to successful development.
The subsequent subsections will analyse the situation related to both the problems of sustainable
environment and energy. A causal analysis will be given followed by an assessment of the roles and
obligations of the duty bearers and rights holders.
3.2 Situation analysis
3.2.1
Situation Analysis of Environment
The natural resource base in the country is stressed which is threatening to undermine the growth
prospects. Conservative estimates suggest that environmental degradation costs the country at least 6
percent of GDP, or about Rs. 365 billion per year, and these costs fall disproportionately upon the poor,
especially women. 76
The environmental damages identified and estimated are due to illnesses and premature mortality caused
by air pollution (indoor and outdoor) at almost 50 percent of the total damage cost, diarrheal diseases and
typhoid due to inadequate water supply, sanitation and hygiene at about 30 percent of the total), and
reduced agricultural productivity due to soil degradation at about 20 percent of the total.77
The above costs are in addition to the challenges presented by economic growth and urbanization such as
hazardous solid waste. The subsequent sections will present the situation related to forests, land, air,
water, coastal mangroves and the challenge of climate change.
48
3.2.1.1 Forests,
Pakistan has very low forest cover, but these forests are very diverse in nature and of significant
importance for the livelihood security of millions of rural people who live in and around these forests.
The forest cover has declined in the recent years at an increasing rate (-1.8% during 1990-2000 and -2.1%
during 2000-2005). The 3.3 million hectares of total forests today is equivalent to 4.8% of the total land
which is the lowest relative forest cover are in the world.78
Table 3: Forest Cover in Pakistan
Year
Forest Cover
(Hectares)
1995
2527000
2000
2116000
2005
1902000
The impact of the low forest cover can be seen in the form of erosion, desertification, decreased water
quality and availability, decreased quality of air, siltation, landslides, and lower capacity of land to hold
water.79 The forests therefore are in in urgent need of protection and conservation.
3.2.1.2 Land
Soil erosion has become a serious problem in Pakistan as about 13.05 million hectares of area is affected
by water erosion and about 6.17 million hectares is affected by water erosion.80The extent of the area
affected by water and wind erosion is given in Table 4. Soil erosion is taking place at an alarming rate and
is mainly due to deforestation in the north of the country. The highest recorded rate of erosion is
estimated to be 150-165 tons/hectare/year. According to some estimates the Indus is adding 500,000 tons
of sediment to the Tarbela Reservoir every day, reducing the life of the dam. By comparison, wind
erosion has a relatively lower impact than water erosion.
Table 4: Area affected erosion (000 ha)81
Degree of Water
erosion
Punjab
Sindh
KP
Balochistan
Northern
Area
Pakistan
Slight (sheet & rill
erosion)
61.2
-
156.3
-
110.5
328.0
Moderate (sheet &
rill erosion)
896.8
-
853.8
1858.6
25.8
3635.0
Severe (rill, gully
and/or stream
bank erosion)
588.1
58.9
1765.1
2724.4
504.2
5640.7
Very severe (gully,
pipe & pinnacle
erosion)
357.9
-
1517.0
-
1571.6
3446.5
Total
1904.0
58.9
4292.2
4583.0
2212.1
13050.2
Degree of Wind
49
erosion
Slight
2251.4
295.0
13.1
36.0
NA
2595.5
Moderate
279.1
70.2
3.8
143.6
NA
469.7
very 1274.0
1686.8
19.6
100.9
NA
3081.3
3804.5
2052.0
36.5
280.5
NA
6173.5
Severe
severe
to
Total:
The fertility status of Pakistani soils is also rapidly declining. The data suggests deficiency of nitrogen in
100% soils and phosphorus deficiency in more than 90%. Same is the situation with organic matter
content, which is around 0.5% only. Potassium deficiency in Pakistani soils, which was not a soil fertility
problem earlier, is increasing rapidly due to the discriminate use of only nitrogenous and phosphatic
fertilizers. Various public and private organizations in the country are reporting a soil potassium
deficiency in the range of 20-40%. The nutrient balance sheet of Pakistani soils reflects severe declining
trends for all nutrients. The estimated loss of productivity as a result of land degradation is US $ 353
million annually, and the loss to rangeland productivity is between US $ 90 - 160 million/year.82
The need to produce more food for the present generation has led to an increase in fertilizer and pesticide
use in the country. This is resulting in deterioration of overall soil health (poor tilth), soil structure
(compaction) and health hazards for the general public especially those in direct contact with these
chemicals.
In 2003, about 5.6 million tons of fertilizer was used every year with a per hectare consumption of
approximately 133 kg. This is higher than world average of 94.1 kg/ha but the yield productions are
substantially lower.83 Yet, by the fertilizer industry standards, Fertilizer usage in Pakistan is low.84
The use of pesticides began in 1960s in Pakistan. Traditional methods to eliminate pests were gradually
discontinued. Consumption of pesticides in Pakistan has increased from 665 metric tons (MT) in 1980
(when subsidy was withdrawn) to 69897 MT in 2002.85 This overuse has disturbed the agro-ecosystem,
induced pest resistance and resurgence and destroyed the bio-control agents e.g. the natural enemies of
the insects including birds; have declined up to 90 percent, in cotton growing areas of the country.86 A
break up of the total cost of pesticide use in the cotton growing areas of Punjab is given in Table .
Table 5: External Cost of Pesticide Use in the Major Cotton Growing Areas of Punjab87
Typed of External Cost
Effects Identified
Value
((Million Rs.)
Pesticide Applications
Fatalities, Treatment costs, workdays loss
266.7
Women Cotton Pickers
Treatment cost, Workdays loss
765
Acute/Minor Ailment Cost
0.64
Environmental/ Health Problems
Effects
not
quantified
1. Human Health
Occupational Poisoning
Distribution, Storage and Disposal
Pesticide Residue in Food Chain
50
Kharif Vegetables
Potential Externality for Rejected Outputs
72.3
Drinking Water
Opportunity Cost of labor to get Clean water
14.3
Cottonseed-oil and Cottonseed-cake
Cottonseed-oil and Cottonseed-cake
23.3
Pest Resistance
Yield loss and more pesticide use cost
5667
Domestic Animal Poisoning
Production loss, mortality and treatment cost
1304.5
Loss of honey and yield loss due to pollinator
loss
63.2
Wildlife and birds
Loss of useful insects and birds fauna with
increased use of pesticide
Effects
not
quantified
Loss in Biodiversity
Increased Dependence on pesticide use to get
stagnating or declining productivity
3745
4.Health/Environmental Monitoring
Cost of toxicity Analysis
4.8
5. Public Awareness Campaigns
Cost of public extension media and NGOs
14.1
2. Production Externalities
Wild honeybee
production losses
and
sunflower
3. Environmental externalities
Total
11,941
The harmful effects of indiscriminate pesticide use are disproportionately high for women. Traditionally
women pick cotton in the fields in Pakistan. These women, numbering about 2.6 million, uninformed of
the dangers as compared to their male colleagues, are increasingly exposed to highly toxic pesticides.
Fears prompt farmers to use pesticides even during the cotton-picking period. These late sprays, their
usefulness questioned, have serious implications for cotton pickers. Table indicates the relative
disadvantageous and harmful situation that these women farm workers are exposed to.
Table 6: Cotton Farm workers' awareness about pesticides
Men
Women
Percentage who have received training
and information on the danger of
pesticides
86
32
Percentage who are provided with
access to protective equipment and
other precautionary measures
82
5
3.2.1.3 Water
Per capita water availability in Pakistan has also decreased from 5,000 cubic meters per annum in 1951 to
1,100. About 80% of the Punjab has fresh groundwater, but in Sindh, less than 30% of groundwater is
fresh. In KP, increasing abstraction has resulted in wells now reaching into saline layers, and much of
Balochistan has saline groundwater.88
51
The surface and ground water reserves are also affected by the uncontrolled discharge of industrial
effluent leading to lead, chromium and cyanide in groundwater samples from industrial areas of Karachi.
In Sindh almost 95% of shallow groundwater supplies are bacteriologically contaminated.89
In Balochistan drought, depleting ground water, Tsunami (coastal belt) and loss of flood water (flood run
off) are seen as pressing environmental concerns.90 Although there is a proper Ground Water
Management Ordinance, according to which no one can dig a tube-well without the permission of deputy
commissioner; the rules are violated with impunity. Electricity was charged at a flat rate of Rs. 4500 per
month which worsened the situation of ground water level.
There has also been a quantitative and qualitative decline in the mangroves forests of coastal regions over
the last two decades.
3.2.1.4 Air
Although the Green House Gases emissions in Pakistan are still insignificant, totaling 157 million t CO2
in year 2007-08, these are bound to rise with GDP growth. For Pakistan, A 1% increase in GDP growth
has been shown to lead to 0.84% increase in growth rate of carbon dioxide emissions. An increase of 1%
in the energy intensity growth rate causes almost 0.24% increases in growth rate of CO 2 emissions.
Energy Intensity growth and CO2 emissions growth are affecting the level of development significantly
and positively by 0.3% and 1.2%, respectively. 91
3.2.1.5 Climate Change
The cost for Pakistan to adapt to climate change has been recently put at US $ 10.7 billion per year for the
next 40-50 years.92 The climatic change will have massive impacts on the water security, food security
and energy security.93 The regions most vulnerable to climate change are also the most underdeveloped in
the country. Delayed action or inaction in countries like Pakistan could lead to irreversible
consequences.94 The likely impacts may include overall temperature increase in Pakistan, additional
stress on water resources due to variability in water flows in the Indus river system, variability in
monsoon and winter rains leading to more frequent and intense floods or droughts, Saline water intrusion
due to ongoing sea level rise in Pakistan, Increased heat, water scarcity and increased intensity and
duration as well as increased frequency of droughts which would seriously threaten agriculture and food
security. Health care would face additional challenges from outbreak of heat related and insecttransmitted diseases, from malnutrition as well as growing food and water insecurity. The effects would
be more pronounced because Pakistan is less able to adapt to the expected changes and the impact on its
poor would be disproportionately high.
3.2.2
Situational Analysis (Sustainable Energy)
Electricity shortages in the summer of 2010 have peaked at 5,000 megawatts (MW). According to an
estimate of Asian Development Bank report95, 30% of the population in Pakistan has no access to
electricity, and about 80% have no access to piped gas. Pakistan ranks 165th out of 218 countries in per
capita access to electricity (India ranks 160th)96. More reliance on these imported fuels is adding to
problem of balance of payment. Increased cost of imported fuels is increasing the cost of electricity
generation. Gas shortages have resulted in rationing of gas for domestic and transportation purposes.
Energy shortages are not only blocking growth but also limiting employment opportunities which is
affecting daily lives of people directly and impeding human development. “These shortages are therefore
a serious handicap in the government's strategy to fight the poverty that breeds extremism and violence in
society at a time when the country is fighting a war against terrorism in its border areas.”97 Table gives an
overview of the impact of load shedding due to energy crisis in Pakistan.
52
Table 7: Cost of Load-shedding98
Rs. 157 Billion
Cost to the Industrial Sector
Cost to the other sectors of industrial loss Rs. 53 Billion
of value added
Total Cost of Industrial Load Shedding to Rs. 210 Billion
the economy
Cost as %age of GDP
2
Loss of Employment in the Economy
400,000
Loss of Exports
Rs. 75 Billion
(over $ 1 Billion)
The power sector experiences transmission and distribution losses estimated at about 21.9%; these are
substantial and raise the cost of electricity and contribute to shortages. 99
The Government has taken many important steps to increase the performance of energy sector. Reform
plan 2010 of GOP aims at addressing the issues of governance and efficiency, regulations, fuel mixing,
financial and investment100. According to Growth framework, the Government of Pakistan will expedite
the promulgation of an energy efficiency framework law covering provisions for codes, standards, energy
reporting, labeling, testing, mandatory audits, fines and incentives, monitoring, and compliance
mechanism in 2011. Despite acknowledging these government efforts, situation of power shortages
demands immediate attention.”
The subsequent subsections will discuss the situation related to energy efficiency, governance, financing
needs, energy mix and alternative and renewable energy.
Figure 14: Links between Energy and Development
Population Health and
Nutrition
Education
Agriculture
Energy
Economic Growth
Democracy and
Governance
Humanitarian Assistance
Environment
3.2.2.1 Energy Efficiency
Energy efficiency has not been a priority in mainstream policy development in the sector. 101 As a result,
Pakistan's energy intensity is high. It uses 15% more energy than India and 25% more than the
Philippines for each dollar of its gross domestic product. Savings from energy efficiency could reach 18%
of total energy consumed in the country. According to the National Energy Conservation Centre
(ENERCON), annual energy savings of up to 25% are possible in all sectors equaling $3 billion in
savings annually and a 51% reduction in oil imports102. These are attainable gains in supply to be realized
53
from energy efficiency.
3.2.2.2 Governance
Capacity gaps prevail in governance of Energy crisis in Pakistan. There is neither a single accountable
institution in government nor enabling legislation to promote energy efficiency in the country. The
legislative framework for energy efficiency needs to be addressed. An energy conservation and
management ordinance was planned along with the development of a national energy conservation
program but not implemented to get desired results. The National Energy Conservation Act of 2009 has
likewise not been enacted. The Pakistan Energy Conservation Council has not yet been convened. There
is requirement of a framework energy efficiency law and a central national energy conservation body.
There are currently a number of institutions involved in energy efficiency, but they often have conflicting
mandates and mixed responsibilities. Consequently, implementing energy efficiency has remained limited
due to the lack of coordination among key stakeholders, to weak institutional structure and capacity, and
to the unavailability of financing for priority or pilot energy efficiency projects.
3.2.2.3 Financing Energy
Pakistan has insufficient capacity to meet the financing needs of the energy sector. Because of a lack of
consistent demand from energy investors, the financial sector has not been able to develop sophisticated
financial engineering products to serve the energy market. The existing capacities of financial institutions
in the country have in any case been eroded because of their exposure to the inter-company circular debt.
The corporate debt market for the energy sector has, therefore, not developed. Friends of Democratic
Pakistan Forum (PDPF) identify a requirement of $14.88 billion in private sector investments for priority
projects in energy sector. There is another estimate that $ 35 billion to meet the energy sector demands
which will be increased to 25000 MW. Economic Growth framework suggests that private sector should
be attracted after diverting the available public sector investment to energy sector. To attract private
investors some fundamental changes in the administrative setup of the efficiency and conservation
agencies will be a pre requisite to realize the substantial potential gains from conservation and efficiency
improvements.
3.2.2.4 Energy Mix
Pakistan's product mix in the fuels sector has very high and unsustainable reliance on two main fuels
which account for 84% of consumption i.e. high-speed diesel (41%) mainly used for transportation and
fuel oil (43%) primarily consumed in the power sector. Fuel oil alternatives for thermal power are
available in the country: coal and alternate energy sources.103 Critics argue that a flawed energy mix has
seriously exacerbated Pakistan’s energy problems, especially since the country has high coal reserves.
54
Figure 15: Percentage of Energy mix 2007104
Coal has substantial untapped potential for power generation. At present, it comprises only 9% of
Pakistan’s energy mix, which is significantly lower than the examples of India, China and the USA
[Figure 15]. Pakistan has approximately 186 billion tons of coal reserves most of which remain untapped.
Coal is found in all four provinces of Pakistan with estimated reserves of 217 million tons in Baluchistan,
235 million tons in Punjab, and 90 million tons in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. Sindh has estimated reserves of
as much as 185 billion tons which can generate sufficient to power 100,000 MW. One encouraging
project (under process) is the Sindh ENGRO coal power project which is a joint venture between the
Government of Sindh (40%) and Engro PowerGen Limited (60%) at a cost of $3-$4 billion. Such efforts
are, therefore, needed to increase the share of coal in the primary energy mix. This, however, would
require a capital investment of over $30 billion plus associated transmission networks. This is particularly
true if external assistance is required for tapping coal reserves for electricity generation and meeting the
environmental standards to reduce the emission concerns105.
The problem with increased use of coal is the exacerbation of environment and climate change related
problems. Any project in this regard will have to get through a rigorous Environmental Impact
Assessment Study.
3.2.2.5 Alternative and Renewable Energy
Pakistan Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) introduced the Policy for Development of
Renewable Energy for Power Generation in 2006. This was Pakistan’s first energy policy aimed
specifically at the promotion of renewable energy power projects. In 2010, share of renewable energy is
1%106. The goal under energy policy is for Renewable energy technologies (RETs) to provide 10% of
Pakistan’s energy supply mix by 2015. The policy focuses on solar energy, wind energy and small-scale
hydropower projects. Small initiatives in wind energy in Sindh and small hydro dam in KP and Punjab
are already taken up107. In addition, Pakistan has a huge renewable energy potential (50,000 MW from
hydropower, 40,000 MW from wind energy). Solar energy too offers opportunities: much of Pakistan,
especially Baluchistan, Sindh, and southern Punjab, receives abundant solar irradiation on the order of
over 2 megawatt hours/square meter and 3,000 hours of sunshine a year, which is among the highest in
the world.
These unexplored opportunities and challenges in the existing set up have deprived people form universal
access to energy in Pakistan. Pattern of exclusion can be explained on rural-urban framework. “Many
rural areas have no electricity for up to 20 hours a day. Urban areas are witnessing outages of 8 to 10
hours.”108 Social priority sectors like health, police, and emergency services are badly affected. Among
the people, the poor are more vulnerable because their ability to sustain their livelihoods is severely
55
affected. Urban population is affected due to the impact of electricity in industrial sector, small industries
and in everyday life. The rights to sustain and develop require energy access to these small and medium
size enterprises. Those on daily wages or piecework are only paid for the work they can do when the
power is on. The deprivations caused by energy scarcity on right to develop are much more significant
than the energy poverty itself.
3.3 Causal Analysis
Human rights and sustainable environment and energy are mutually reinforcing. Access to energy and
environmental protection are essential to the realisation of basic human rights, including the rights to
food, health and even life itself. The lack of empowerment of citizens to contribute to the management of
natural resources and energy is the overarching cause of the problems and challenges for both. The lack or
inadequacy of processes and mechanisms to balance the conflicting interest and rights of the present
generations versus the inter-generation claims for the right of environment protection and access to
energy resources; is the second overarching cause.
In the subsequent sections, separate causal analysis for the situations related to environment and energy;
above will be presented.
3.3.1
Causal Analysis (Sustainable Environment)
Causes common to most challenges to a sustainable environment in Pakistan include poor investment in
natural resource management and lack of proper planning of natural resources. Lack of incentive based
regulatory policies and systems and the absence of support for voluntary environmental protection
initiatives by the industries; also cause lack of compliance with regulations. There is a need to incorporate
environmental and efficient resource-use considerations into industrial strategy and policies. The end of
pipe remedies to pollution are difficult due to extra costs they impose on production, hence lack of
knowledge about alternate solutions worsen the state of existing pollution.
Only about 5% of national industries conduct environmental assessments and therefore no proper
environmental profile of industries are available. The industries also find it capital intensive and with very
low or no rate of financial return. The cause of a sustainable environment also lack platforms for
contribution by concerned citizens. In the absence of a structured, systematic and sustained effort to
scientifically chart the biomes/ecosystems, the lack of use of indigenous knowledge of local people is also
a contributory factor.
The excessive exploitation of forest resources for commercial and subsistence purposes, encroachment,
fire, a growing population, insecure land tenure, land use changes such as crop cultivation, overgrazing of
livestock, unplanned urban and industrial expansions, inequity, unemployment and poverty are some of
the proximate reasons why Pakistan continues to have a high deforestation rate today. 109 The underlying
causes for these are commitment unaccompanied with adequate investment, poor planning, unrealistic
forest working plans and weak implementation of forest protection laws. The primary causes of overharvesting by domestic cutting in private and community forests are widespread poverty, population
pressure, lack of fuel-wood alternatives, and a lack of awareness about sustainable resource use methods.
Uncontrolled use of pesticides, diseases and damage by insects, and fires are other causes of forest
degradation. 110
Increased surface runoff is the proximate cause of soil erosion, which in turn is caused by reduced natural
vegetation. This is caused by deforestation, overgrazing and improper land use practices.
56
There is a need of water conservation management techniques in agriculture with the support of
community participation. Most of the water pollution stems from very little separation of municipal
wastewater from industrial effluent in Pakistan. There is no regular monitoring programme to assess the
surface and ground water quality. The treatment of sewage and industrial effluents is at present a very low
priority due to the huge cost associated with it. There are no clear guidelines, rules or regulations for
groundwater abstraction. The water agencies in urban areas are decentralized but have few resources
The root cause of the reduced supply of fresh water to the Indus Delta is found at the national level. The
decision to apportion and/or divert water supplies for upstream uses only takes agricultural needs into
account. 111
Mangrove forests and coastal belt has been suffering due to the increases in volume of untreated industrial
and domestic wastewater discharges from Karachi and its vicinity and the dredging of port channels. The
underlying causes for these are non-efficient production and post-production technologies and processes.
Another underlying cause is the capacity gap in the implementation of international dredging. The
government agencies responsible for enforcing standards are understaffed and under-equipped. The
capacity gaps of regulating agencies for controlling marine pollution will continue to contribute to
environmental degradation.
In the coastal region, the household data show that most households are directly or indirectly linked with
fishing. Household fuel consumption patterns show that nearly two-thirds of the resident communities do
not use mangroves at all. This may change if the returns from fishing decline. Overharvesting of fish
resources however is a bigger problem for biodiversity in the mangrove ecosystems. The root causes of
degradation of mangrove forests stem, at the national level, from industrial, trade, and conservation
policies. Centralized growth with subsidies promoting inefficient production technologies leads to
increased marine pollution. Trade policies; emphasize export expansion to reduce trade deficits and
revenue gaps. These need to be augmented with conservation policies which can guard against
overharvesting of fish resources in shallow waters. Tax and water pricing policies also need to
discourage inefficient water use.112
Climate change is a global problem however some local underlying causes can also be observed in the
country. The rapid deforestation is expected to cause changes in species composition and reduction of
forest area. The loss of precipitation thus brings higher temperatures and changes in humidity levels.
3.3.2
Causal Analysis (Sustainable Energy)
There are multiple reasons for reaching the present situation; however, a combination of following four
factors has contributed to the energy crisis.
First, Pakistan experienced high, persistent gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates that generated
accelerated energy demand. Electricity demand was growing by 3%-4% annually up to 2003-04. It spiked
in subsequent years to reach 10% in 2007-08 in line with higher economic growth.”113 Subsidies on power
sector also resulted in increase in domestic demand of power. The growth in demand in the current decade
was clearly not fully anticipated and adequate provisions, therefore, were not made to cater for this
increased demand114. The share of public sector expenditure on the power sector, which averaged at about
28 percent since the 1980s, fell to less than 3 percent in the current decade.
Second, the Independent Power Producers (IPPs) have held back on investment in improvement/upgradation citing un-realistic tariffs for household consumption.115. It is however very difficult for the
Government to increase the power tariff beyond a politically acceptable limit. Evidence of poor capacity
of the power sector management is the accumulation of over Rs.370 billion of circular debt. “The inability
57
of federal and provincial government agencies and semiautonomous corporations to timely pay their dues
to power generating entities have in turn weakened their ability to pay for their inputs, in particular fuel,
resulting in reduced power supply by IPPs. Heavy line losses (22%), large scale theft are other examples
of the overall mismanagement of the sector.”116
Third, energy reforms remained incomplete, and delays in implementing energy projects due to lack of
investment. Responsibilities and accountabilities in Pakistan's energy sector are dispersed in various gas,
oil, water and power sub-sectors. These dispersed institutional arrangement blocks integrated planning
and budgeting in the energy sector, distorts efficiency, creates disequilibrium among the sub- sectors, and
generates disharmonious regulatory structures. “Energy security simply cannot be achieved unless it is
treated as an integrated item. Corporate governance in energy companies is weak, and they lack financial
and administrative autonomy and independent boards with authority.” 117
Lastly, the crisis situation has been a hurdle in collecting electricity bills in regions like FATA. The
energy infrastructure in some crisis-affected areas has also suffered. 118
3.4 Duty Bearers and Right Holders
Placing people at the center of development the duty bearers and rights holders approach in this section
will be based on the perceptions, needs, and legitimate claims of people, benefits for poverty reduction,
education, health, and gender equality. This lens can potentially contribute directly to the realization of
related MDGs e.g. There are clear links between the right to clean drinking water and MDG 4 on reducing
child mortality and environmental and energy rights contribute directly to MDG 7 on ensuring
environmental sustainability.
For more effective and sustainable environment and energy, individuals as rights holders have to be
included as active participants to meet local preferences and needs, use local knowledge and technology,
and match local capabilities. As informed citizens and genuine stakeholders, individuals feel committed
to maintaining the programme and to protecting their environment. They are thus transformed from rights
holders to responsible duty bearers.
The stakeholders on the supply side have the obligation to prevent “elite” capture of environment and
energy related policies. The objectives of such policies should be broad-based participation which builds
the capacity of poor and marginalized groups to claim and exercise their rights.
Gender inequalities impact on non-fulfillment of rights, lack of protection, and lack of women’s
participation in policy-making and implementation. Hence, concretely addressing these inequalities must
be a pre-requisite for a more effective and efficient environment and energy regime, which is consonant
with international covenants.
Environment and energy issues are understood as implicitly included in the international conventions on
human rights e.g. The right to the highest attainable standard of health included in the Covenant on
Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (1966) and the right to life in the Covenant on Civil and Political
Rights (1966) depend on a clean and healthy environment. Other recent international human rights
instruments specifically acknowledge the importance of a clean and enabling environment. The human
right to water119, food safety and other protective measures to prevent contamination through “bad
environment hygiene”, “housing not be built on polluted sites nor in proximity to pollution sources that
threaten the right to health of the inhabitants, the right to environmental information, and active
participation in environmental decision making, and the right to effective redress for environmental harm
are all now part of one or another UN convention. Similarly, the duties of both individuals and states,
58
including government obligations to disseminate information, facilitate public participation, control
harmful activities, monitor and manage environmental use, and provide effective remedies and redress for
harm.
At a national level, asserting procedural rights, such as the right to information, the right to participation
and the right to judicial redress, has provided communities and NGOs with tools for ensuring good
environmental regime. A rights-based approach to energy is implicit in other policies, and many of the
principles and issues are identical to those in the environment area.
Pakistan has signed and ratified all 14 major Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEAs) and has
also enacted legislation and established institutional mechanisms aimed at translating its commitments
under the MEAs. Pakistan has also formulated several national policy frameworks such as the National
Environment Policy (2005), National Forest Policy (Draft), National Energy Conservation Policy (2006),
National Renewable Energy Policy (2006) and Policy for Development of Renewable Energy for Power
Generation (2006) etc. 120
Looking at the above, it is easy to observe that out of the three dimensions of State Obligations i.e.
respect, protect and fulfill, 121 the Pakistani state has been particularly active in its second and third role
while not enough obligations have been discharged in its first role i.e. the obligation to respect which
requires states to refrain from interfering with the exercise of the right and refrain from direct injury to
human health through poor environmental and industrial hygiene. Some of the most well-known,
government supported mega projects were declared in violation of the statutory provisions related to
Environment and Energy.
The obligation to protect requires the state to supervise relations between citizens, to ensure that private
parties are respecting the rights of others, that healthy standards of environmental industrial hygiene are
maintained, proper regulatory frameworks and monitoring mechanism in place to ensure that private
actors are behaving the way required by the laws. In this regard the role of the state needs strengthening
by strengthening the linkages in institutional design, especially in the post 18th amendment era. This
includes policy formulation, provision of resources and public reporting. It also includes building capacity
to monitor these standards and offer incentives and conduct accountability.
The third dimension, the obligation to fulfill, requires the government to take appropriate steps, through
legislation, policies, budgetary allocations and other measures, to promote the realisation of the rights
such as introducing environment and industrial hygiene standards into national legislation to ensure that
healthy standards are met for air, water and soil quality and efficient energy use in consumer appliances
including transportation vehicles. In Pakistan, this will also include public provision of quality
information, including the daily publication of Quality Indices in major cities, will built in support for air
and water quality improvement initiatives and enabled with the issuance of health alarms when necessary.
In this role, civil society stakeholders can be involved in environmental decision-making and oversight,
and by supporting public interest advocacy through legal associations and the establishment of
environmental law clinics at universities.
For individual areas of concern related to Environment, the government in its obligation to fulfill, have to
promote research on the climate impacts on ecosystems, Research and establish gene banks, remove
barriers to accommodate the natural migration of fauna due to climate change, promote compensatory
farm practices, reduce forest fires and other hazards through timely warning and firefighting systems and
biologically control pests.
59
The financial size of some of the obligations for mitigation and adaptation to climate change; has been
estimated at US $ 10.7 billion a year.122 With a weak economy, the government cannot fulfill this
obligation alone and must be matched by the multinational duty bearers especially given the fact that the
problem is not one of Pakistan’s making. However, a national funding mechanism has to be developed in
this regard.
3.5 Conclusion
Capturing the development dividend of growth calls for complementary policies that address the
constraints to sustainable environment and energy while facilitating development. These constraints fall
into; institutional design, regulatory framework, capacity limitations, finance and incentives and
accountability.
Pollution and climate change are predicted to induce rapid melting of glaciers which feed the rivers in
Pakistan which may well result in the creation of glacial outburst lakes. These changes will result in a
reduction in the flow of water feeding major rivers in Pakistan. Other potential challenger may include
disruption and unpredictability of monsoon rains thereby significantly altering the future of some of
Pakistan’s ecosystems with accompanied increased frequency and intensity of droughts, storms, erosion,
and landslides, increased temperatures, pest outbreaks and diseases. The adaptation should therefore aim
at restoration, sustenance and enhancement of the biodiversity.
Community-based natural resource management offer promising possibilities to establish more equitable
and sustainable natural resource management systems. Structured and systematic access to natural
resources for all local residents helps avoid the exclusion of the poorest, particularly women. The
inclusion of women in decision-making at all levels is necessary for successful management, over and
above issues of equity.
The implementation of codified rights in the shape of international treaties, conventions and national
legislation to access natural resources are necessary in Pakistan, especially to ensure the rights equal
access to natural resources for women, poor and indigenous communities.123
Energy sector deficits are holding growth back and not address the needs despite clear demand and
potential. There is comprehensive planning in individual sub- sectors, but it is fragmented; plans require
better integration, implementation, monitoring, and financing. Circular debt is a major impediment to new
financing in the energy sector. It is now not only affecting electricity, gas, and fuels sub-sectors but also
discouraging future investments in the coal and alternate energy options. Improved corporate and
operational governance and robust pricing mechanisms are important for the sustainability of the sector.
Private sector attention will be contingent upon better environment for doing business. Energy efficiency
is a priority that needs to be backed by better capacity, legislation, management, and investment. These
factors indicate a deeper crisis in energy policymaking, governance, and regulation. If the governance
issues are fully and successfully addressed, then it will be possible to resolve the fundamental problems of
the energy crisis.124
4 Human-made and Natural Disasters
During recent years, Pakistan’s polity, economy and society had to endure both Human-made and natural
disasters. These included the Taliban related crisis125 mainly in KP and FATA, ethnopolitical conflicts in
Balochistan and Karachi, the devastating floods of 2010, earthquakes, droughts, landslides and cyclones.
All these external supply shocks have impacted the people, infrastructure and livelihoods. The impact has
60
been particularly harsh on the poor, women, children, old people, minorities, refugees and the Internally
Displaced Persons (IDPs). In the following sub-sections the situation will be reviewed and the impacts of
these Human-made and natural disasters will be examined with particular focus on the poor and the
socially excluded. The political, social and economic causal links will be explored for a better
understanding of these disasters. The response of various actors to the challenges will be seen in the
context of respective roles of rights holders and duty bearers.
4.1 Situation Analysis
This section presents the situation created due to both human-made and natural disasters. For most issues,
examples related to the main crises (in FATA, KP and Balochistan) have been highlighted. Similarly for
natural disasters, the flood of 2010 has had the greatest impact and therefore is chosen as the leading
country wide example. The 2011 flood, though on a smaller scale that 2010, reiterates the fact that natural
disasters in Pakistan occur on a near-annual basis. Therefore, to highlight regional impacts of crises, data
from other conflicts and natural disasters has also been presented, wherever relevant.
Causal analysis will follow in Section 4.2.
4.1.1
Conflict in FATA and KP
Post 9/11 crisis in Pakistan has now taken the shape of an armed insurgency between the state and various
armed groups, chief among which is the Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan (TTP).126 Although the whole country
has witnessed violence and terrorism, it has been the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the Federally
Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), in which the crisis has been overtly violent, sustained and
intensive.127 Table 8 shows the number of crisis related deaths and injuries in KP and FATA.
Table 8: No. of Conflict related deaths and injuries in KP and FATA128
Region
Number
Deaths
of Number of No.
of
Injured
Incidents
FATA
4,034
1,920
577
KP
2,331
6,427
1757
Grand
Total
6,365
8,347
As of July 2011, there are still more than 284000 IDPs from FATA living in camps or host
communities.129 Even Prior to floods, there were 2.6 million conflict-affected people in the country.
4.1.2
Conflict in Balochistan
Balochistan, the province with the largest area (42.9%) and the least population (5%), has four main
ethnic groups of Balochis, Brahvis, Pashtuns and settlers mainly from Punjab. There is a history of
Baloch nationalism in the province and the last phase was during 1974-78. There was visible lull in the
violent conflict throughout the 1980s. A steady rise in violence is witnessed since then. After 2002, the
conflict with state agencies has become overtly violent. The target killings of approximately 1200 people
of other ethnic groups has led to an exodus of highly skilled people from Balochistan, most of whom were
teachers, doctors, nurses and engineers. Some estimates put the number between 100,000 to 200,000.130
61
4.1.3
Ethnopolitical and Sectarian Conflicts
Sectarian conflicts in especially in parts of FATA, KP and Karachi, have also claimed thousands of lives.
In Kurram agency of FATA, in the 2007-08 period alone, more than 1,500 persons have been killed and
5,000 others injured.131 Violence has spread to the sectarian problem districts of Kohat, Dera Ismail Khan
and Hangu. Local tribes have been joined by al-Qaeda fighters and Taliban from Waziristan who have
targeted the paramilitary forces. As violence continued, the road from Parachinar to Peshawar has
remained blocked for the last three years, resulting in a shortage of food and medicines; and people have
to use Afghanistan’s routes to travel to Peshawar.
Afghan Refugees
Since 2002, in what has become the world's largest self-organized but assisted return programme,
UNHCR has been facilitating voluntary repatriation from Pakistan to Afghanistan with nearly 3.7m
Afghans having returned home to date. During 22 March and 31 October 2010, UNHCR assisted 109,383
Afghans to repatriate through the Voluntary Repatriation Centres (VRC) in Baleli, Balochistan and
Chamkani, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Unlike 2009 when both centres were closed for much of the year
because of insecurity, in 2010 the voluntary repatriation operation was largely unimpeded with no
security incidents and, as a result, the number of returns doubled.132 Registered Afghans enjoy de facto
protection from refoulement and freedom of movement within the country. Meanwhile, non-registered
Afghans and non-Afghan asylum seekers are regulated by the Foreigners Act of 1946 which contains
strict provisions addressing foreigners contravening its rules.133
4.1.4
Natural Disasters
Natural disasters have added to the complexities of the conflict related problems. The exposure,
vulnerability and capacity to cope with these disasters vary with regions, socio-economic class of the
affected population groups, age, gender and livelihood strategies. The 2010 flood in Pakistan has been the
worst natural disaster in Pakistan’s history. The cost of the flood to different sectors is as shown in Figure
.134
Figure 16: The Cost of Floods
Even after passage of one year, there are massive challenges to recovery, especially in housing, food
insecurity, protection for vulnerable groups, women, hard to reach communities and the landless.
Over 20 million people were affected by floods in 2010, and more than 1.6 million homes were damaged
or destroyed.135 The overwhelming demand outstrips the recovery effort with 351,980 houses/shelters
provided but 827,380 units were still required (Oxfam 2011). Although the vast majority of flooddisplaced people have returned, many citing interlinked livelihood, debt, and protection concerns as
62
reasons for remaining homeless or staying in the camps.136 The monsoon-fed flood of August 2011
affected over 5 million people and re-enacted many of the national and international response concerns of
2010.
The country is also still experiencing the lingering effects of the earthquake of 2005. Recovery and
reconstruction effort is still drawing resources from national and provincial budgets. In addition to floods
and earthquakes, parts of the country, especially in Sindh and Balochistan are susceptible to droughts.
Prior to flood, the Indus had shrunk to a trickle in parts of Sindh, forcing farmers to rely increasingly on
wells drawing saline groundwater. This has lowered the fertility of soil and in the long run, may well
impact the yields of cotton, rice and wheat. Parts of lower Sindh as well as Balochistan coastal region
have also been hit by cyclones. Recently two tropical cyclones hit the Makran Coast leaving destruction
in their wake. The rains left an estimated 250,000 homeless in Turbat in the Ketch district alone. 137
The unusually strong rains have also led to frequent landslides, especially in Gilgit Baltistan, Azad
Jammu and Kashmir and northern KP. At Attabad in GB, a massive landslide in January 2010 led to the
formation of a 21 km long and 100 meters deep lake and the displacement of more than 23000 people.
4.1.5
Impact of Disasters on the Excluded and Vulnerable138
Both conflicts and natural disasters have disproportionately affected the excluded and the vulnerable.
Socio-economic vulnerability of the conflict affected population has been exacerbated by indiscriminate
damage to villages, loss of livelihoods, trauma of displacement and disillusionment over the failure of
support systems to respond to people’s needs. There are a number of groups which are particularly badly
affected for they are most vulnerable specifically: all women, youth (male and female), children, the poor,
female-headed households, people with disabilities, and victims of acts of violence.139 The communities’
social fabric has been severely disrupted, with destruction of social infrastructure, displacement and a
realignment of power in favour of religious extremists. An environment of fear and distrust among the
communities exist where people find it difficult to regain confidence in the social structures.
Communities have been divided during the conflict between those who supported militants and others.
Youth (ages 15-29 years) comprising 27 percent of the population in the affected areas, have been
particularly exposed to militancy. After the defeat of militants in some areas, the future of young men is
particularly at risk since their training and skills are limited. In Balochistan, although numbers are
difficult to ascertain, a new phenomenon is the militarization of educated Balochi youth as opposed to the
mostly tribe based militias of the past conflicts.140 Young women have also suffered from forced and early
marriages ‘for their protection’.
The people of Kurram agency have been cut off from the rest of the country now for more than three
years with little or no access to medicines and food from the outside. With little supplies, prices are more
than double those of the rest of the country. This has exacerbated the situation for the poor and the daily
wagers. Similarly, in Karachi, where conflict has kept the businesses close for days on end, the street
vendors, daily wagers and those who depend on daily handouts from charities; have suffered the most.
The susceptibility of being cut off from businesses and livelihoods for long periods has also been
observed in case of natural disasters. The riverine communities along rivers Swat, Jehlum, Nala Lai,
Chenab and Indus have been the hardest hit due to floods. Some of these, especially in mountainous
terrains are hard to reach. The problems in Sindh and South Punjab are more complex. Widespread
communities of landless peasants, who are already extremely poor and with no legal title to the land, have
lost close to 30% of the 2.6 million housing units in Sindh alone. A recent decision of the Supreme Court
has declared ‘All such illegally constructed structures on government lands which had been destroyed by
the recent floods are not allowed to be re-erected’.141 This will potentially bear hardships for most of these
poor and affected communities who will now be cut off from the only source of their livelihoods.
63
Other natural disasters also had their cutting off effect on livelihoods. The Coastal Highway was cut off
for seventeen days due to cyclone damage. In GB, all the valleys upstream of the Attabad Lake,
where no damage had occurred, were cut off. An estimated population of 25000 is suffering due
to no economic activity and non-availability of items of daily sustenance.
4.1.5.1 Access to Education
Education in conflict affected areas has suffered due to destruction of 333 schools in FATA and KP (100
boys, 233 girls) and partial damage to 275 schools (80 boys, 195 girls), affecting 0.98 million students
(38.5 percent girls) and 27,765 teachers in KP.142 In FATA, 141 schools (53 girls) have been destroyed
and 174 (19 girls) partially damaged. Anecdotal evidence suggests very few schools operating in FATA;
those too under risk. Latest reports indicate that none of the TVET institutions in FATA are functioning.
Gross primary attendance rates for females in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa have fallen.143 In Balochistan, Gross
primary attendance rates for females are lower than in the non-conflict regions both before and during the
conflict period. In 2007, both conflict regions experienced a decrease in primary gross attendance rates
among girls.144
The natural disasters have also affected access to education because of the impact of floods on families,
on school building and the use of the left over buildings as shelters for prolonged periods. The impact
could have been greater had it not been for the summer vacations in most regions.
4.1.5.2 Access to Health Services
Access to health, knowledge, practices and services is generally very low, especially for women. The
situation was further aggravated by conflicts and natural disasters. The access of poor and vulnerable to
health facilities in conflict affected areas have been further restricted. Peripheral health facilities (HFs)
were forcibly shut down. These facilities provided services for birth spacing, prenatal and obstetric care,
immunization, nutrition, and curative services. Access to preventive intervention such as immunizations
has decreased. Health staff mobility for field work has been severely restricted. Home visits of LHWs,
outreach immunization programs and polio supplemental immunization activities have been badly
hampered. Out of total polio cases in Pakistan, the proportions in KPP and FATA increased from 44% in
2008 to 55% in 2010 (till June). In 2011 there was an outbreak of polio in Balochistan. In 2009, KPP and
FATA together contributed 60% of total new polio cases. Vandalism, theft of expensive equipment,
coercions, killings and kidnappings of health personnel have reduced the number of available health
service providers in some areas. The physical, mental and psychosocial well-being of women, men and
children have been severely impacted with fear, anxiety, panic attacks, violent reactions, feeling of
insecurity, sleeping and eating disturbances, depression and sadness. Many of the above health related
problems have been exacerbated by natural disasters. Of the almost 3000 hospitals and clinics in flood
affected districts, more than 400 were damaged or destroyed, limiting the provision of emergency and
routine care.145 Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) rates have spiked, up to 22% in some areas of Sindh. 146
The food insecure population after the floods could be as high as 94 million people.
4.1.5.3 Freedom of Expression
The current conflict has had serious impact on the state of Human Rights in the country. The forceful
abductions of persons who are suspected of involvement in anti-state activities have been challenged in
the courts. The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan, in its latest report,147 contains details of 140
people who had been reported missing in Balochistan, but their mutilated bodies were found between July
last year and May this year.
64
Although few in numbers, minorities in some conflict affected areas had to migrate to the interior of the
country to avoid persecution for their faith. Although few and far between, in some flood affected areas,
discriminatory treatment has been reported to the affectees belonging to the Ahmadiya minority.
Here too, the situation has a bright lining. The courts are actively pursuing cases of forced abductions
with some success. The vibrant media and the civil society have taken up the plight of ALL flood
affectees.
4.1.6
Impact on Economy and livelihoods
Both conflicts and natural disasters have had serious impacts on the national and regional economies.
Agriculture and food security, trade, mining and tourism have all suffered.
There have been major damages to the agriculture sector as well as exacerbating the pre-existing
structural problems. In conflict affected areas of KP and FATA, animals have been abandoned, Standing
crops not harvested; irrigation, animal shelter, fish ponds and hatcheries damaged; and stocks of seed,
fertilizers and feed lost. Veterinary hospitals, offices and research facilities have been damaged, destroyed
or looted. Forests have suffered due to uncontrolled cutting of trees. There has been disruption of the local
supply network with damage to shops, stores and sheds. There is increased reluctance of traders, input
suppliers, private service providers and transporters to work in the area. As a result market linkages and
information flows that underpin market driven development have been disrupted. The floods have also
impacted the agriculture sector across the country. As the most affected sector, agriculture is the chief
source of employment for women. Recovery activities in rural areas have not made any deliberate effort
to reach these women directly. The impact on agriculture has increased the food vulnerability in a country
in which around 48.6 percent of the 165 million people are already food insecure. The conditions for food
security are inadequate in 61 percent [of] districts (80 out of 131). The food security situation is worst
(67.7 percent) in the conflict-ridden Federally Administered Tribal Areas along the Pakistan-Afghan
border followed by Balochistan Province (61.2 percent). However, the silver lining here is the bumper
wheat crop which has been variously attributed to the increased fertility of the soil due to the silt
deposited during the floods.
The armed conflict in KP and FATA has also caused extensive damage to productive assets, sharply
reducing economic activity. The mineral sector has faced a precipitous decline in output. Of 270 marble
mines that were operational before the crisis, only 25 are in operation at present, and production is less
than 5 percent of previous levels (in large measure due to a ban on the use of dynamite). Tourism, one of
the mainstays of the Swat economy before the crisis, has come to a virtual stand-still, with a loss of some
40,000 jobs. The damage to related assets will also take years to restore. 9% units in retail sector were
damaged, 17% in industry/commercial sectors, and 12% in tourism/hospitality. The sector has seen a
partial return of tourists this summer but is a long way from normal business.
The crises have affected women’s livelihoods. As an example, according to one estimate148, the crisis had
displaced 85 per cent of the population of Dera Bugti. More women are now shouldering the
responsibility for maintaining the household as insecurity fears were keeping their men away. This
situation added livelihood problems for the women who were already vulnerable in a tribal society in the
midst of a crisis.
In the worst of flood and cyclone affected areas most of the villages are dependent on subsistence
agriculture and flood has washed out up to an estimated 70% of the fields, thus sweeping away their
crops, trees and fruit plants. Similarly the Attabad Lake has cut off the Chinese trade route which is by far
65
the cheapest trade route. The landslide has also washed away 25 kilometers of the Karakoram Highway
and six bridges thus cutting people from their livelihoods.
4.1.7
Impact on Governance and Rule of Law
Crises and natural disasters have also affected the state of governance and the rule of law in certain areas.
The crisis in FATA and KP has further weakened the ability of the state and traditional governance
systems to control the situation and exercise core functions like providing security, stability and access to
basic services. More than 600 traditional leaders have been killed leaving a severe vacuum of governance
power in the region. Civic governance mechanisms CSOs, political parties, media or community groups
have been further weakened. Their limited capacity to develop political demands and pursue them, to hold
public and traditional governance institutions to account or to contribute to development and service
delivery have been further eroded.
In FATA, militant groups occupy and assert control, creating safe havens and local illicit economies. The
lack of a formal justice system and development initiatives have correspondingly reduced the stakes of
citizens in State and society. Residents of FATA have been so far denied basic Constitutional
protections149 and freedoms.150 However, with the introduction of the new FATA regulations in August
2011, a good start has been made to rectify the situation.
The impact of natural disasters on security and stability has been varied in different parts of the country.
However the common thread across all situations has been the need for the law enforcement agencies to
provide protection services to those affected by natural disasters. Sporadic reports of looting during the
floods, maintaining security cordons for the visiting dignitaries and INGOs personnel, preventing child
and women trafficking and abuse of the affected population, have all kept the police and security forces
under pressure. The situation before floods was also problematic e.g. in Sindh where in the weeks leading
up to the floods, angry farmers affected by drought, marched through villages in Sindh demanding access
to water. Those who could no longer make a profit in the fields were increasingly resorting to banditry or
migrating to urban slums.151 In GB, Victims of the landslide and expansion of the lake have staged
numerous sit-ins protesting the lack of government action and compensation payments to them. Clashes
with police have also led to loss of lives.
4.2 Causal Analysis
The subsequent sub-sections present causal analyses for the crises and natural disasters.
4.2.1
Armed Conflicts
General propositions about the risk of internal conflict, that emerge from quantitative studies152, are
informative, stressing the presence of opportunity and feasibility in forming rebel movements (something
which increases in the presence of natural resource rents as in Balochistan), as well as state capacity to
restrain these tendencies. On the other hand, it has long been recognized that deprivation produces
rebellion.153 This relates to the differences between what people have in terms of tangible socio-economic
indicators (income, assets, education, health, access to common resources and public services), and what
they think are their just rights. If they have less, they may be inclined to rebel. Furthermore, in the
absence of corrective policies, this is more likely in more ethnically fragmented societies, and hence the
importance of identity. This point is applicable to both the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan
provinces.
66
For the crisis in FATA and KP, the drivers of conflict identified by the Post Crisis Needs Assessment are
presented in Figure 18. 154
The advocates of ‘motivational’ factors hold that it is the gap
between expectations and achievements which motivates the
parties to enter conflict. On the other hand, the proponents of a
political process model of conflict stress the primacy of power
resources in the explanation of conflict.155 In Balochistan both the
models have equal explanatory power. Ted Robert Gurr classified
group grievances into those related to political autonomy, those
related to political rights other than autonomy, economic rights and
social and cultural rights.156 Horizontal Inequalities have been used
as instruments to gauge these grievances of identity based groups.
As discussed in the Economic Growth and Human Development
sections, Balochistan has lagged behind the rest of the country.
Distinguishing among economic inequality, political inequality
and the inequality of welfare, we find that all three types are
present in today’s Balochistan vis-à-vis the rest of the country.
… simple inequality between
rich and poor is not enough
to cause violent conflict.
What is highly explosive is …
‘horizontal’ inequality: when
power and resources are
unequally
distributed
between groups that are
also differentiated in other
ways – for instance by race,
religion or language. Socalled ‘ethnic’ conflicts occur
between groups which are
distinct in one or more of
these ways, when one of
them feels it is being
discriminated against, or
another enjoys privileges
which it fears to lose
While the death of Nawab Bugti in 2006 is agreed as the
immediate cause of the present conflict, the participants of the
consultative workshop at Quetta stressed the importance of
understanding the history of Balochistan in order to understand its
current conflict. For the violent and non-violent conflict in
Balochistan from 1986 to 2005, regression analysis shows that
income gap (per capita GDP), and political inequality at elite level
are positively related to all types of conflict and the coefficients are
statistically significant. The gap in senior civil service positions is
statistically positively significant for total conflict and violent conflict. The literacy gap (social access) is
also positively related and significant for total conflict.157
One underlying cause of the present conflict is the issue of exploitation of energy resources in the
province. The quantum of gas supplied to Balochistan and the well head prices of gas were cited by the
participants of the consultative workshops as the chief reasons for grievances. It is envisaged that with the
introduction of the 18th Amendment, a framework now exists to address most of these grievances related
to natural resources.
The development work in the province and the mega projects like the Gwadar Port and motorways have
not been welcomed by some among the elite who allege lack of adequate safeguards for local
employment and local autonomy.
For the conflict in Balochistan, the interaction among the conflict drivers and effects is presented in
Figure 19.
4.2.2
Natural Disasters
Disasters affect and are affected by environmental conditions. Both the earthquake of 2005 and the floods
of 2010 brought out four main reasons for widespread damage caused by almost all natural disasters in
Pakistan. These include the gaps in Disaster Risk Management (DRM), increased risks of natural disasters
like floods, cyclones and droughts, the presence of widespread and deep vulnerabilities and the lack of
67
adequate contingency planning. On behalf of the Government, the National Disaster Management
Authority (NDMA) reports on national progress on implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action
(HFA), and in its 2009-11 report has identified lack of awareness across the board, paucity of expertise
and institutional capacity, especially at the local level, inadequacy of resources and absence of reliable
data as key challenges that need to be overcome in order to implement an effective DRM strategy.158
The human-caused climate change may have played a role for the floods.159 Yet, some of the damage may
have been avoided. Since risk reduction measures can also have adverse environmental consequences, it
should be noted that the Supreme Court-appointed commission identified major problems related to
embankment maintenance, barrages regulations and design issues. The commission also found gaps in
capacity and performance relating to motivation of duty staff, plans, flood predictions, early warnings and
to the extent that some of these bordered on criminal negligence. It also found fault with rescue and relief
activities.160
Formal and informal human settlements have expanded together with the construction of dams, roads,
bridges, flood protection structures, canals and drainage channels. All these divert or constrain the natural
pathways of the Indus and its tributaries, interrupting the natural ebb and flow of the monsoon flood
waters. There is no overarching effort to ensure that the physical infrastructure is designed and
constructed in balance with the capacity, scale and limits of the local ecosystems. This inadequacy in the
design and location of infrastructure interferes with the regulating function that the local eco‐systems
provide to the river system. A combination of increased inflows from the highlands and reduced
water‐carrying capacities of the heavily silted river channel, fertile wetlands and flood plains (now
densely populated) exposes large numbers of people to increased risk from severe flooding during times
of heavy rains. In the short‐term, small localised flooding has been reduced and land protected for
settlements and cultivation, but in the longer term the river system has little flexibility and redundancy to
absorb heavy rainfall. 161
For spells of drought particularly in Sindh, farmers cite diversion of upstream waters to feed farms.
Unequal access to land directly translates to unequal access to water in most of Sindh. This unequal
access is facilitated by rotational irrigation system. Another reason for less water in the rivers is the
melting of glaciers in Pakistan’s north. Pakistan could face a 30-40 per cent drop in river flows in 100
years’ time. (Kugelman)162 As more water is diverted to feed agriculture, average flow speeds have fallen,
dumping silt on river beds. Shallower channels are less able to cope with sudden rainfall, rendering
Pakistan more vulnerable to extreme flooding.
It is difficult to predict earthquakes even in technologically advanced settings. As can be seen in Figure ,
the earthquake hazard for Pakistan is more pronounced for the regions of Northern Punjab, KP, AJK and
northern Balochistan. The genesis of damages due to natural disasters in Pakistan is given in Figure.
The biggest single determinant of risk to the vulnerable population and groups is their socio-economic
status. Poverty and social exclusion, in most of these crises, have direct correspondence with the extent of
damages. These are the people with least coping mechanisms and access to resources. Sustained help, till
long after the crises, will be needed from all duty bearers.
68
Figure 17: Earthquake hazard for Pakistan in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration [m/s 2] for the 0.002 annual exceedance
probabilities (500yearrecurrence)
69
Figure 18: Genesis of Conflict in FATA and KP
Conflict in FATA and KP
Radicalization
Effects
Deprivation
Military action
Weak Governance
Politicization of
religion
Systematic failure to
protect citizen’s
rights
Lack of women’s role
in civic and political
life
Lack of employment
opportunities
Disparities in
development
Breakdown of
Traditional Governance
Structures
Limited economic
opportunities
Lack of growth
Lack of civil society
engagement
Ineffectiveness and
Corruption of
traditional structures
Capacity of gaps of
civilian LEAs
Lack of enforcement
Intimidation and
Usurpation by
militants
Corruption and lack
of accountability
Financial incentives
by militants
Funding for militants
Distorted Curricula
Thriving illegal sector
Domestic and
International financial
sources
High levels of illetracy
Weak regulatory
environment
Foreign troops in
Afghanistan
Causes
70
Figure 19: Genesis of Conclict in Balochistan
Exodus of
Settlers
Missing
persons
Killing of
settlers
Militarization of
educated Baloch
youth
Effects
Grievances
Death of
Nawab Bugti
Military
Action
Breakdown
of Security
Deprivation
Suspicion over
Mega projects
Dispute over
natural resources
Lower well head
price and rents
of Balochistan’s
gas
Energy
Crisis
Political
Inequalities
Inequality
Unequal
Distribution
of Gas
Education
Lack of
Employment
Oppurtunities
Health
Fear of being
reduced to a
minority
Influx of
workforce for
mega projects
Poverty
Political
Participation at
national level
Lack of
participation in
decision making
Presence of Afghan
Refugees
Lack of Democracy
and democratic
norms
Causes
71
Figure 20: Damage due to natural disasters
Damages due
to natural
disasters
Inadequate
and NonEffective
Contingency
planning
Coordination
issues
between
govts, deptts,
and agencies
Presence of
Vulnerable
Groups
Capacity Gaps
in DRM
Lack of
effective Early
Warning
Systems
Capacity
Capacity
Capacity
Capacity
challenges challenges Challenges challenges
to Reduce to Manage to Analyse to Monitor
Effects
Presence of
Vulnerable
communities
Lack of
Community
based DRM
Presence of
Vulnerable
physical
Environment
Fragile local
Unprotected
economies
critical
Unprotected
with low
infrastructure
buildings
income
e.g. bridges
and
houses
levels
and hospitals
Environmental
Degradation
Increased Risk
of Natural
Disasters
(Floods,
Cyclones and
Droughts)
Disaster
Insensitive
Development
Causes
72
73
Meta Analytic Approach to Country Analysis
4.3 Duty Bearers and Rights Holders
Humanitarian crises tend to affect and displace those who are already underserved, vulnerable and
marginalized. They are the ones with least coping mechanisms and access to resources. It may be that at
the height of any humanitarian response the affectees’ immediate needs are met by humanitarian actors,
sometimes for the first time in their lives. But as they go back to their places of origin the displaced
communities have to start from scratch, and may again be forgotten and underserved.
The problems arising out of the crisis in FATA and KP are similar to some of those encountered during
the natural disasters, particularly the issue of IDPs and the problems faced by the host communities. The
necessary legal and regulatory structure required to discharge the duties and secure the rights in such
circumstances is missing e.g. Pakistan is not a party to the 1951 Convention on Refugees and there is no
national legislation on refugees or statelessness. The lack of data is also an issue and much less is known
about the needs of those outside the camps. Challenges to provide services exist in both the host
communities they move to which may struggle to cope with a large influx of people and the destroyed
communities they return to.
A particular example is that of education where it is not seen as a priority by the humanitarian agencies
overwhelmed with the challenges of proving lifesaving care. Education, a basic right under the
constitution suffered with 1.8 million children losing access to schools.163 Looking beyond the initial
recovery and reconstruction phase, humanitarian community and the government will have to fill this gap
through provision of essential services. Displacement can also increase access to education for those who
had no access or exposure to education in their home communities. The obstacles to accessing education
vary but can include security, the affordability of school fees, the lack of teachers and/or books,
inadequate sanitation and, for those outside camps, the need to work or look after siblings so that parents
can work. For refugees living in communities a major obstacle is that the government may not allow them
to attend public schools, particularly beyond primary education. Certification of learning achievements
can be an issues as a lack of recognition on their return home can be problematic for accessing further
education or employment. The government, as the body with primary responsibility, needs to develop
laws and policies to ensure that IDPs receive education. There is also a need to look after displacement
affected communities, whether as hosts, those coping with returnees or those left behind.
The Internally Displaced People have suffered from a shortage of support and the ‘push’ forces applied in
the name of reducing dependencies. Their constitutional rights to choose where to live, does not have a
corresponding duty bearer and advocate among the international community and the national and
provincial governments.
The riverine communities have the right to adequate protection measures against future disasters. The
provincial governments and its irrigation and disaster management departments have the duty to maintain
protection structures, give early warning and provide early rescue and relief. The capacity and resources
of some of these duty bearers have serious shortages.164
Women are facing difficulties to recovery and proving their property rights because of lack of
documentation. This problem is compounded for widows and female-headed households who already
face difficulty in claiming inheritance and land after leaving their homes.165
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74
Meta Analytic Approach to Country Analysis
A rights-based approach to reconstruction166 also requires that the landless among disaster the affectees
not be evicted from lands to which they do not hold title. Distribution of state land, especially to women,
needs advocates in the government and international community.
Since with the 18th amendment, the provinces are now taking the lead in reconstruction efforts, therefore
the risk of divergent standards is high. This has also created new duty bearers with different levels of
capacity. The international community, in its roles as service provider and convener, needs to take the
initiative to replicate successful models of recovery from one province to another.
In the crisis affected areas of KP, FATA and Balochistan where the traditional Alternate Dispute
Resolution mechanisms exist but have been weakened over the course of crises, the same needs to be
viewed as actors with obligations. These need to be strengthened with capacity development in their legal
and juridical assignments. These can prove beneficial especially in areas of ongoing sectarian violence.
The jirgas for the resolution of disputes have attempted peace accords but have failed to incorporate the
essentials of successful peace agreements namely credible interlocutors, commitment premiums and
implementation machinery. The role jirgas for the purpose of these peace negotiations needs
strengthening. At the same time, these duty bearers should encourage the participation of youth from both
Shia and Sunni communities wherever possible.
The integrated planning for and management of natural disasters is the domain of National and Provincial
Disaster Management Authorities. However the roles are not clear with respect to the Earthquake related
recovery and reconstruction where duplication can be seen through the work of Earthquake Relief and
Reconstruction Authority (ERRA). There is a need for disambiguation in these roles.
The role of the provincial irrigation systems is also important in managing the efficiency of the system.
Plugging capacity gaps of these duty bearers can improve the water availability and reduce the risk of
droughts. These capacity gaps are related to the existing system of monitoring, information management
and databases. For any such database to be effective there is a need for exchange of information and
building joint programs among Pakistan, India, Afghanistan and Iran. Such programs would help all the
four countries. International organization can fulfill this much needed role of facilitator and convener.
As rights holders and with important role to play for avoidance of droughts, farmers need awareness on
actual water requirements, farm leveling, ground water management and correct scheduling to avoid overirrigation.
There is a need for a duty holder who can facilitate sharing of knowledge and skills through the initiation
of a regional research and development program for drought and water management.
Communities as important rights holders need to fulfill some duties by taking ownership of the campaign
of recharging the aquifers and in the optimum use and management of surface water and groundwater
resources.
As duty bearers the federal and provincial governments need a comprehensive drought-mitigation
infrastructure and strategy.
The capacity of state institutions for formulating and implementing the seismic, landslides, cyclone and
flood related building codes; is limited. The NDMA, PDMAs, Rescue 1122, Engineering Universities and
Building Control Authorities need a convener to formulate a joint strategy for the formulation, update and
implementation of these codes.
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75
Meta Analytic Approach to Country Analysis
4.4 Conclusion
Pakistan needs to get out of the conflict poverty trap, whereby conflict and poverty beget each other. Just
as conflict risk is enhanced by poverty, conflict also serves to perpetuate poverty. The reduction of
poverty is a developmental goal, which requires conflict prevention. In practice, however, it is also
difficult to separate the development and security agenda. Freedom from want and the freedom from fear
are in reality inseparable, because without security ensuring livelihoods is meaningless, and the converse
is equally true. The reduction of absolute poverty yields a triple dividend by simultaneously addressing
security considerations, disaster mitigation and developmental concerns.
The long shadow cast by past experiences of conflict on individuals and households is significant. The
household livelihood decision making is important in regions that have experienced conflict, and where
there is a danger of conflict reigniting. This will be an important lesson in regions of KP, some parts of
FATA and Balochistan where there is a decreasing trend of violence. It should also be clear that peace in
these regions is enforced and not negotiated. For a durable and positive peace, attention needs to be paid
to all the drivers of conflict.
The impact of conflicts in Karachi has been felt on the whole national economy. Contributing 20% of the
GDP, 30% of manufacturing and 53% of FBR’s revenues, it is the economic engine of the country. The
Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI) estimated the loss of one day of violence at
around 7-8 billion. 167 This does not include the intangible loss due to investor confidence and flight of
capital.
In both Karachi where the situation is returning to normalcy and in parts of FATA where the state has
reestablished its writ, Political negotiation and positive settlement may still be the best course to address
the root causes of those conflicts.
To mitigate the risk of natural disasters, the key challenge identified is the difficulty to predict them and
prepare contingency plans in an integrated manner. Post disasters, all the actors have to follow technical
guidance to ‘build back better’ as it is important for future Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). Trends show
that Pakistan may be more prone to both droughts and floods. An increased frequency of natural disasters
threatens to induce donors’ fatigue among the international partners. These duty bearers will have to
combat compassion fatigue for discharging their duties.
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5 Human Development and Human Security
5.1 Introduction
“Human Development is about steadily sustaining positive outcomes and combating processes that
impoverish people or underpin oppression and structural injustice.”168 The holistic concept of human
development includes a number of indicators of well-being including health, education, employment, and
political participation. Human security addresses barriers to human development.
Thus, this section covers both key aspects of human development in Pakistan as well as human security
which provides the enabling environment for development. While the emphasis here as elsewhere in this
report is on citizens’ gendered rights to basic services, the MDGs and HDI rankings will provide the basis
for analyzing Pakistan’s present human development context and future challenges.
In general, it is clear that key improvements have been recorded in health and education and provision of
basic rights, despite a litany of natural and Human-made crises that has affected the country in the past six
years. Pakistan’s HDI ranking, which had increased by 18 places during 2005-2009, slid back 20
positions in 2010 to end at 145th out of 187 countries measured.169 Its multidimensional poverty level has
declined to 11.8%. In terms of MDGs 4 & 5, for instance, improvements have taken place in IMR, MMR,
U5MR but do not match 2015 targets, and are marked both by urban-rural differences and stark regional
disparities.
Regarding MDG 2, while net primary enrolment rates (NER) have increased across the board and gender
disparity has marginally reduced, there has been a significant decline in completion/survival to grade 5
during the past five years. Given all round increases this decline may reflect a shift to private schools,
though inflation and global recession are also factors affecting parents’ ability to educate their children.
The literacy rate of the over-10 population has increased over 25% in the past decade overall and 40% for
women and girls, but it is still doubtful whether the MDG target for female literacy will be reached.
Studies have demonstrated a strong direct correlation between literacy rate and household income,
indicating that it is a consequence of socioeconomic causes.
Immunization shows improved coverage but requires increased impetus if targets are to be met. The
coverage of households by Lady Health Workers is a relative success story, increasing two-fold to 83%
by 2009, and on track to ensure full-coverage by 2015.170 Both sanitation and water supply coverage
(MDG 7) show marked improvement, but here too achieving targets by 2015 will not be easy.
However, many challenges still remain. Nutrition status appears to have deteriorated or stagnated; the
2010 floods provided the occasion to bring this problem to the limelight, including the fact that
underweight children under five years are still at 1990 levels. Population growth continues to a serious
concern, with the 2.5% annual increase being the highest in the region. Reproductive health issues take a
heavy toll on women and need to be urgently addressed.
As with health, despite gains, it is evident that girls continue to face significant disadvantage in access to
education as they reach adulthood. Advocacy for equitable approaches to ensure quality of educational
opportunities is a fundamental need. Progress notwithstanding, women’s participation in the labour force
in Pakistan is low (21.8%), and is concentrated in the informal labour market and home-based worker
sector where they face challenges, particularly in relation to social protection.
Increase in expenditure on education and health is crucial to ensure inclusive development in Pakistan.
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With about 80 million children and young persons under the age of 18, investment in, and protection of,
them is vital to enable them to fulfill their future roles as part of an educated and skilled workforce that
can contribute to growth, and as part of an active citizenry that participates in the electoral and political
processes. Similarly women too, if allowed, can play a vital role whether through community
engagement, paid work or political participation, but this requires both attitudinal change and targeting of
resources. Separate data on the Afghan refugee population is unavailable, but it is clear that they
constitute a vulnerable and excluded group that requires special targeting.
5.2 Situation Analysis for Human Development
This section identifies and describes key elements of the overall context relating to human development in
Pakistan, paying special attention to health, including nutrition and food security, education, and human
security. In such an analysis, it is appropriate that the global Human Development Index (HDI) becomes
the initial frame of reference.
The HDI ranks Pakistan as a medium developing country. Pakistan has enhanced its ranking from 143 rd
position171 in 2005 to 125th position in the year 2010 out of 169 countries172. Up to 2010, HDI was
calculated on the basis of three dimensions – health, knowledge and income. The HDI introduces three
new indices this year to reflect unequal growth, gender inequality, and the multidimensional nature of
poverty. The inequality adjusted HDI for Pakistan is 0.336, a 31.5% loss on the HDI figure of 0.490. This
compares with a global average loss of 22%. The biggest inequality adjusted loss is in relation to
education, at 46.4%.The gender inequality index is 0.721 (with 0 being the best score). The
multidimensional poverty index (MPI) puts 51% of the population in multidimensional poverty with
11.8% of the population at risk of multidimensional poverty although the report comments that the figures
could be lower because nutritional data was not available.
The following sub-sections will flesh out this analysis, incorporating MDG assessments and other
indicators as relevant.
5.2.1
Population
The population burden is having a negative impact on poverty. Linked to this is the issue of women’s
rights, particularly in relation to child spacing and access to contraception. Those most excluded from
positive health outcomes are women and children, particularly those in rural areas and/or poverty.
Pakistan, a country with already scarce resources and facing multiple challenges, houses the world’s
seventh largest population currently estimated at around 180 million people of which around 22% are
adolescents, carrying opportunities along with challenges173. Pakistan is projected to be the third highest
contributor towards the global population between 1995-2025 after India and China174.
Although the last four decades have witnessed a decrease in annual population growth rate from above
3% to 2.5%, the rate of decline has been one of the slowest in the region (Table 9). Even if the current
growth rate is maintained the nation is projected to nearly double its size by the year 2050. Similarly
although the average life expectancy at birth has increased from 54 in 1970 to 67 in 2009, the increase is
much slower (24%) compared to Bangladesh (52), India (31), and Iran (33). The last two decades have
also witnessed the reduction in death rates and Pakistan is now classified demographically as a high
fertility and low mortality nation175.
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Table 9: Population Growth Rates
COUNTRY
1970-1990
1990-2000
2000-2009
% Decline
Pakistan
3.1
2.5
2.5
19
Bangladesh
2.6
2
1.8
31
India
2.2
1.9
1.7
23
Iran
3.4
1.6
1.3
62
Sri Lanka
2.9
2.5
2.4
17
It is estimated that nearly one-third of Pakistan’s population lives below the poverty line, where the
poverty line (health perspective) is officially defined on the basis of per capita ability to purchase the
nutritional requirements of an adult (i.e., caloric norm of 2,350 calories per adult equivalent per day
which was US $13 per month in 2001)176. Although per capita income has increased from $576 in 200203 to $1,254 in 2010-11 the benefits have not been felt by all177. Pakistan is categorized as one of the
poorest countries in the world178 where nearly 40% of women can be termed as poor, amongst whom
nearly 30% can be considered both economically and socially poor i.e. having a low social status against
international indicators assessing status in societies179.
5.2.2
Health
In order to achieve MDGs by 2015, Pakistan has committed to: Reduce the proportion of under-five
underweight children to less than 20; Reduce infant mortality rate (IMR) to less than 40 per 1,000 live
births; Reduce under-five mortality rate (U5MR) to less than 52 per 1,000 live births; Reduce maternal
mortality ratio (MMR) to less than 140 per 100,000 live births; Reduce incidence of TB to 45 per 100,000
population; Increase utilization of effective malaria preventive and treatment measures to 75% in high
risk districts; Increase sustainable access to an improved water source to 93% of population and to
improved sanitation to 90%.
Table 10: Under five Mortality Rates173
COUNTRY
1970
1990
2000
2009 %
PROJECTED
Decline
2015
Pakistan
180
130
108
87
52
83.8
Bangladesh
236
148
90
52
78
46.2
India
186
118
93
66
65
61.8
Iran
190
73
48
31
84
28.4
Sri Lanka
84
28
21
15
82
14.1
Sweden
13
7
4
3
77
2.8
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MDG 1 includes reduction in prevalence of underweight children under-five years of age from 40 in 1990
to less than 20 by 2015. The proportion of underweight children was increased during 2001-2 to 41.5 and
remained stagnant at 38 during 2004 to 2009. The Pakistan Millennium Development Report 2010 states
that it has worsened since 2006180.
MDG 4 includes under-five mortality rate, infant mortality rate, fully immunized children aged 12-23
months, proportion of 1 year old children immunized against measles, incidence of diarrhoea among
under-fives, and Lady Health Workers’ (LHWs) coverage. Out of these six indicators, Pakistan's
performance in achieving the targets by 2015 is unsatisfactory particularly in the case of the first two
indicators180.
Although the under-five mortality rate has reduced to half the rate in 1970, at the current rate of decline
the MDG target will not be met (Table ). The decline in U5MR has been lowest for Pakistan compared to
other countries in the region. Within Pakistan, the under-five mortality rate is 28% higher in rural areas
than in urban areas, and rates are further lower in major cities than in other urban areas 181. Similarly the
IMR target will not be met if it continues to decline at the current pace (Table ).
Table 11: Infant Mortality Rates
1990
2009 %
Decline
PROJECTED
2015
Pakistan
101
71
30
61.5
Bangladesh
102
41
60
21.7
India
84
50
40
39.3
Iran
55
26
53
16.8
Sri Lanka
23
13
43
9.8
Sweden
6
2
67
0.7
Information from 50 Demographic and Health Surveys around the world undertaken between 1995 and
2002 reveal that neonatal mortality rates are around 20–50 per cent higher for the poorest 20 per cent of
households than for the richest quintile182. In Pakistan, a higher prevalence of low birth weight babies, a
main predisposing factor for neonatal mortality, has been observed among poorer households in the
country183.
The target for diarrheal incidence among children under-five years was achieved in 2007-08 much ahead
of time. Similarly, the coverage of households by Lady Health Workers (LHW) has increased from 38 to
83% in 2008-09 in the first nine years of the MDGs so the attainment of 100% coverage by 2015 seems to
be on track.184
As regarding MDG 5, the MMR has declined from 350 in 2001-02 to 260 (PDHS 2007 reports it 276) in
2009173. The MMR for rural areas (319) is almost double than urban (175) areas. There are marked
variations among provinces as well, Punjab being at 227, Sindh 314, KP 275 and Baluchistan at 785181.
This MDG target still requires almost a halving of the current MMR.
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There has been a decrease in deliveries attended by skilled personnel from 48% in 2004-5 to 39% in
2009. There is also considerable disparity between urban (60%) and rural (30%) areas as well as between
the provinces: Punjab (38), Sindh (44), KP (38) and Baluchistan (23). The 2015 target for skilled birth
attendants is still more than twice the proportion achieved in 2008-09.
Despite the persistent high knowledge of contraceptives among married women (96%), from 2001
onwards, there is a slight increase of 2% in the contraceptive prevalence rate (from 28 to 30%) which is
still one of the lowest in the world181. The total fertility rate (TFR) has declined at a reasonable pace from
7 in 1970 to 3.9 in 2009 but is still one of the highest in the region. It seems that the MDG target for both
these indicators is unlikely to be achieved.
The Pakistan MDG Report 2010 concludes that many of the specific targets for MDG 5 will not be met in
the immediate future, and it will be challenging to meet the targets by 2015 unless herculean efforts are
made.
Regarding MDG 6, the HIV situation in Pakistan since 2004 has fallen into concentrated epidemic
category. Although the general population HIV prevalence in Pakistan is rather low (less than 0.1%), the
key at risk populations in Pakistan comprise largely of people who inject drugs, sex workers and sexual
minorities (transgender persons and men who have sex with men). The HIV prevalence among key
populations is considerably higher than the national prevalence, recording 20% for people who inject
drugs, 6.1% for transgender sex workers and 11.4% for men who have sex with men.185 This high
prevalence among the key populations reflects their low HIV service coverage of 5.8%, 13.5% and 53.8%
for female se workers, male/transgender sex workers, and people who inject drugs, respectively.186
Pakistan still has a window of opportunity to halt and reverse this HIV epidemic across the country by
2015, provided there are concerted efforts in scaling up universal access to HIV prevention services for at
risk populations, as well as to give HIV treatment to those who need it, which stood at only about 5% in
2009.187 This includes reaching out to the most excluded and marginalized communities through specific
measures (which may comprise social protection, economic support, social inclusion, provision of
services – prevention and treatment, etc.) and ensuring allocation of adequate resources for this approach.
Additionally, there is an urgent need for the removal of punitive laws, policies and practices that drive
these key populations underground, prevent their access to HIV services, and allow high HIV prevalence
among them.
It is important to recognise that people living with HIV are subject to exclusion, stigma and
discrimination in Pakistan, as in other countries in the South Asia. Data from a recent nine-country study
in the Asia Pacific region, which included Pakistan, identified key concerns such as exclusion from
religious worship and family activities, denial of health services, job promotions, and breach of
confidentiality.188
The DOT coverage for TB cases has increased from 79% in 2001-02 to 85% in 2008-09 and the MDG
target has been met before time. However, the incidence of TB is stagnant at 181 per 100,000 of
population since 2001-02.To achieve challenging target of 45 will require extensive measures both at
community and service delivery levels while keeping prime focus on high risk areas, poor and excluded
segments of population.
From 2002 to 2008-9, the access and utilization of effective malaria prevention and treatment measures
have increased from 20 to 30% in 19 high districts. The MDG target of 75% seems a major challenge.
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This certainly requires strategic measures to actively involve and build capacities of the most at risk
communities.
Regarding MDG 7, water supply coverage has increased from 53 % in 1990 to 65 % in 2008-09.
However, the MDG target of 93% by 2015 seems to be challenging at the current rate. Sanitation
coverage has increased from 30% in 1990 to 63% in 2008-09 according to the PSLM survey 2008-09 but
again the MDG target of 90% appears challenging.
5.2.2.1 Nutrition Situation in Pakistan
Pakistan is one of the 189 signatories to the MDGs. Although alleviation of hunger and nutrition
interventions are a corner stone of MDG targets, the mid-term evaluation suggest that Pakistan is lagging
behind several key nutrition and health indicators (Figure ).
Figure 21: Pakistan MDG Nutrition Related Targets
However, the reality is that the last two decades have seen a significant increase in Stunting and Wasting
among children under 5. In fact, Wasting is at its highest level since records were first taken in 1965,
while Stunting is at 1977 levels (See Figure below). Approximately half of the world’s malnourished
children are in three countries: Pakistan, India and Bangladesh. Clues to this “Asian Enigma” of
malnutrition lie in the differences that exist between rates of LBW, unhygienic conditions, breastfeeding
and weaning practices and the status of women. Malnutrition in Pakistan is directly and/or indirectly
responsible for almost 50% of all under-5 deaths.
Figure 22: Time Trend in Malnutrition among Under-5 Children
Time trend in malnutrition prevalence of under-5 children in Pakistan
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Underweight
Stunting
Wasting
1965
1977
1985-7
1990-4
2001
2011
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A high prevalence of under nutrition has existed throughout Pakistan for long time, well before the most
recent floods, however the floods did provide an opportunity for unveiling of the problem and bringing it
into sharp focus both at national and international levels. The table below shows that acute malnutrition
levels have been consistently above the cut-off of a public health problem even before the floods. The
results of 2010 flood affected nutrition surveys indicated a very serious situation especially in Sindh
(21.2-22.9%) where the malnutrition levels are way above the emergency thresholds and a serious
malnutrition situation (GAM of 14%) in Punjab after the 2010 floods (Nutrition Survey Reports 2010).
Furthermore, the rate of chronic malnutrition (stunting) is unacceptably high in Pakistan and NNS 2001
revealed that more than 40 percent of the children between 6-59 months were stunted which in the recent
survey in flood affected areas are 50 percent.
Moreover, micronutrient malnutrition inclusive of Vitamin A deficiency, iron deficiency anemia and
Iodine deficiency disorder in women and children were detected at levels of severe public health
significance in Pakistan with Sindh and Punjab recording the highest levels. Low birth weight has
remained high 22.1% from 1980 to 1991 before further deteriorating to 26% in 2006.
Table 12: Micro-nutrient deficiency and Food insecurity
Indicators
Pakistan
Sindh
Punjab
KP
Balochistan
Iron Deficiency anemia (Children) (NNS, 2001)
67%
68%
72%
56%
36%
Iron Deficiency anemia (Mothers) (NNS, 2001)
45%
47%
45%
44%
55%
IDD deficiency ( mothers (NNS, 2001)
76%
69%
71%
56%
31.1%
27.4%
24%
34%
43%
Poor food consumption score ( WFP, 2009)
15.7%
13%
29%
10%
27%
Population with food insecurity (WFP 2009)
48.6%
44.3%
56.2%
38.5%
61%
Low birth weight (weight less than average-PDHS
2006)
Poor nutrition is compounded by food insecurity and poor food intake, particularly for women and girls.
According to the 2009 study, KP has the highest percentage (29%) of people with a poor food
consumption score. These figures indicate a poor food security situation in the provinces (Food insecurity
in Pakistan, 2009): KP (56.2%), Sindh 44.2% and Punjab (38.5%). The low birth weight babies, and high
stunting rate (chronic malnutrition) are the reflections of poor nutrition and health during pregnancy and
even pre-pregnancy periods due to embedded gender inequality in the society (low literacy rate of
women, no control over household resources, limited decision making power for her own health, and her
choices for pregnancy, being last in the family food chain) in Pakistan.
5.2.2.2 Health System & Health Care Delivery
Constitutionally, the provision of health care in Pakistan is primarily the government’s responsibility.
Since 1947, health services provision has been the domain of provincial governments. The federal
government is mainly responsible for formulating policy, directly administering key urban tertiary care
hospitals, and implementing a few vertical programs189.
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Pakistan has a total of nearly 127,859 qualified physicians, 62,651 nurses and 15,790 dentists in both the
public and private sectors. Contrary to the recommended Physician-Nurse ratio of 1:3-4, in Pakistan for
every ten thousand of population there are 4 nurses and 8 doctors compared to 13 and 6 in India, 3 and 3
in Bangladesh, 14 and 9 in Iran and 17 and 6 in Sri Lanka, respectively190.
The health care delivery system of Pakistan can be broadly divided into private and public sectors191.The
private sector operates in formal and informal ways. The informal system provides care through nonqualified care providers. The formal system consists of large accredited hospitals and nursing homes
which are concentrated mainly in the major urban areas and render fee-for-service healthcare192.
In 2000, under the Local Government Devolution plan, health care provision became primarily district
based with provincial health departments responsible for financing, monitoring and facilitating district
governments193. Despite this the overall budgetary allocation for the health sector has never exceeded
more than 1.0% of GDP with the most recent decline to 0.7% in the year 2009.194,195
Many of the primary level care centres are in a severely dilapidated condition due to poor maintenance,
low budgetary allocations, prolonged absence or lack of availability of staff, institutional insufficiencies
and poor governance. The dearth of available and functional local primary care services imposes a heavier
burden on higher level facilities. In 1993 the government responded by launching the National Program
for Family Planning and Primary Health Care. The program has gradually expanded involving nearly
95,000 lady health workers (LHWs) who provide preventive and basic curative services at the household
level throughout the country196.
5.2.2.3 Women’s and Girls’ Health
Women in the reproductive age group have specific needs which have higher negative implications in
rural as compared to urban areas and is suggestive of deep-rooted culturally defined gender roles197.
Current estimates suggest that nearly 28% of non-pregnant women and 39.1% of pregnant women suffer
from anaemia198. In Pakistan, the role of traditional birthing and early child care practices has been shown
to enhance neonatal morbidity and mortality. Among women who give birth at home and have traditional
birth attendants, there is higher risk of neonatal deaths due to higher rates of birth asphyxia, neonatal
tetanus and sepsis199.
In rural Pakistan 58.1% of women get married before the age of 20 compared to 27% in urban areas.
Although the legal age of marriage for girls in Pakistan is 16 years, early child marriages are common and
around 37% of girls get married before the legal age.200 The concept of early pregnancy after marriage is
synonymous with the women’s gender-defined role of motherhood. This exposes the adolescent mother to
multiple adverse health conditions:
First, children born to young mothers are more prone to illness and death. Second, teenage mothers are
more likely to experience complications during pregnancy and less likely to be emotionally, physically
and psychologically prepared to deal with pregnancy-related challenges, which often leads to death and
maternal disability, the most debilitating being obstetric fistula. This complication leads to incontinence
of urine, faeces or both, and devastating their lives. These women are often abandoned by their husbands
and become ostracized members of society.Poverty, malnutrition, poor health services, early marriage and
gender discrimination are interlinked root causes of fistula, which is also termed a social
calamity. Unfortunately, there are no statistics available for Pakistan, because the problem of fistula is a
neglected and under-prioritized issue, but there are estimates that indicate 4000-6000 new cases per year
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Meta Analytic Approach to Country Analysis
according to fistula experts. Vulnerability to obstetric fistula violates many of the human rights that
collectively constitute the right to reproductive health (RH). Thus, the failure to provide timely prenatal
care ( including medically indicated caesarian deliveries) and timely fistula repair violate women’s
internationally recognized human rights, especially to healthcare in general and reproductive healthcare in
particular. Third, their early entry into reproduction denies them the opportunity to pursue academic
and/or professional goals, thus maintaining the lower status of women in society.
The incidence of mental health problems may increase among women during the maternal period,
especially during the postpartum phase201. Their occurrence is shown to be aggravated among those who
face domestic abuse and violence, especially during pregnancy. Around 42% of pregnant women suffer
from symptoms of anxiety and/or depression and domestic abuse.202 The occurrence or chronic presence
of these conditions has been demonstrated to predispose a 1.5-3 times higher risk towards adverse
pregnancy and health outcomes for women and poorer health and higher morbidity and mortality among
newborns.203
Globally, the major causes of child death especially among infants are largely attributable to
communicable diseases including those that are vaccine avertable and preventable. In Pakistan more girls
than boys die after the neonatal period as the child mortality rate for female is found to be 22 compared to
14 for boys. This pattern continues for the age group of 5-14 years where female and male mortality rates
are 3.4 and 2.3 respectively.181,204 Women, girls and infants most often die of common communicable
diseases such as tuberculosis, diarrhea, pneumonia, and tetanus. Furthermore, under nutrition during early
life is considered to be a strong predictor for vulnerability to fatal preventable infections205. In Pakistan
children living in rural areas have a higher incidence of low birth weight and poorer nutritional status than
urban residents. The incidence of common illnesses such as diarrhea and acute respiratory infections
during the neonatal period is known to be much higher in children living in rural areas, which is
associated with use, accessibility, availability, and type of health care services206.
5.2.3
Education
Education carries a multi-dimensional value. As well as a fundamental right it plays a pivotal role in
growth and progress. It plays a vital role in human capital formation and is widely acknowledged as the
single most important factor contributing towards the alleviation of poverty and is considered a vital
investment for human and economic development207. Education has a substantial impact on the degree of
social cohesion in society and the reduction in regional disparities. Apart from the economic value for its
user, it is an extremely important instrument for social mobility, and serves as a repository and defender
of core national values, leading to an innovative and peaceful society.
Like many other developing countries, unfortunately the situation of education sector in Pakistan has not
been very encouraging primarily due to poverty and a challenging economic situation208,209.
On the Education Development Index, which combines all educational access measures, Pakistan lies at
the bottom in South Asia with Bangladesh, and is considerably below Sri Lanka. A similar picture is
painted by the gross enrolment ratios that combine all education sectors, and by the adult literacy rate
measures. Pakistan’s HDI has improved over the years but the rate of progress in other countries has been
higher. Bangladesh, starting at a lower base, has caught up, while other countries have further improved
upon their relative advantage. These developments do not indicate well for Pakistan’s competitive
position in the international economy. As the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) shows, Pakistan’s
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performance is weak on the health and education related elements of competitiveness when compared
with its major competitors like India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Malaysia.
Despite major economic challenges, Pakistan is consistently striving towards improving its education
sector and has taken some key decisions to enhance access to education. Recognizing, as an important
barrier to access to education, since 2004 Pakistan has abolished school fees and is providing free text
books to students up to grade 10 in the public sector, as well as extending monthly stipends to middle and
secondary girl students in selected schools in three provinces.
Under the 18th constitutional amendment, education has been devolved to provinces. More funds have
been provided to the provinces through the 7th NFC award. Every province emphasizes the provision of
access to quality education at all levels in order to achieve the MDGs and the objectives of Education for
All (EFA)210. This commitment follows the principle of inclusion which is seen as a process of addressing
and responding to the diversity in the needs of all children, youth, and adults through increasing
participation in learning, cultures, and communities, and reducing and eliminating exclusion within and
from education. It involves changes and modifications in content, approaches, structures, and strategies,
with a common vision that covers all children of the appropriate age range and a conviction that it is the
responsibility of the regular system to educate all children211.
Recently Pakistan has taken many new initiatives aiming at providing missing facilities, improving
teaching quality and learning environment, building capacity of education managers and administrators,
etc. Apart from the Ministry of Education, organizations and departments like National Commission for
Human Development (NCHD), Higher Education Commission (HEC), National Vocational & Technical
Education Commission (NAVTEC), Ministry of Social Welfare and Special Education (MoSW&SE),
Labour & Manpower Division, have launched initiatives to develop the Human Resource of Pakistan to
meet the emerging challenges.
5.2.3.1 Status of Education-related MDG
The education-related MDG 2 focuses on three core indicators: (a) the net primary enrolment ratio
(NER); (b) completion/survival rate from grade 1 to 5; and (c) the literacy rate.
NER
The net primary enrolment ratio has increased from 52% in 2004-05 to 56% in 2006-07. The PSLMS
2008-09 reports that NER has gone up to 57% but fell to 56% in 2010-11(Table ). The economic
recession and high inflation are identified as the main reasons which have adversely affected real incomes
thereby negatively affecting the enrolment rates of children of poor households.
There are significant variations in NER among the four provinces (Table ). The NER is highest in Punjab
as compared to the other provinces. Gender disparity in NER has shown a slight reduction, except in
Punjab. During the last five years, the NER for girls has improved by 4% in KP indicating a decline in
gender disparity in this province.
Table 13: MDG Indicators for Goal 2212
INDICATORS
199091
200102
200405
200506
200607
200708
200809
MTDF
Target
2009-
2010-11
MDG
Target
2015
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2010
Primary Net
Enrolment Ratio (%)
Completion/survival
rate Grade 1 to 5 (%)
Male
46
42
52
53
56
55
57
77
502
57.3
67.1
72.1
54.7
52.3
54.6
80
53.3
61.8
71.6
56.2
53.2
54.8
64.3
75.8
72.8
52.9
51.1
54.6
Female
56
100
100
Literacy rate (%)
351
45
53
54
55
56
57
77
58
88
Male
48
55
65
65
66
69
69
85
69
89
Female
21
35
40
42
43
44
45
66
46
87
In recent years there has been a mushrooming of private schools. According to PRSP II, in urban areas
almost half of the total primary enrolment was in private schools. However in rural areas private school
enrolment as a share of total primary enrolment increased from 18 percent in 2004-05 to 20 percent in
2006-07. This suggests that in rural areas, where the majority of the poor live, public schools remain the
main source for primary education and therefore special focus on improving access and quality of
education there is required.
Table 14: Net Enrolment Rate by Provinces213
Provinces
2004-05
2006-07
2008-09
2010/11
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Punjab
60
55
64
59
64
60
62
59
Sindh
53
42
56
43
57
49
57
48
KP
53
40
56
41
58
45
57
45
Balochistan
44
29
49
32
51
36
56
35
Total
56
48
60
51
61
54
60
53
5.2.3.2 Completion/Survival Rate
There has been a significant decline in the completion/survival rate to grade 5 during the last five years
(Table ). One probable reason for this could be the shifting of students from public to private schools due
to compromised quality of education in public schools, the unavailability of teachers, poor infrastructure,
etc. The completion and survival rate, however, has been almost stagnant since 2005-06.
5.2.3.3 Literacy Rates
Although the literacy rates of the population of 10 years and above has shown some improvement (Table
) during 2001-09, it is highly unlikely that the MDG target of female literacy will be achieved in
2015213.Like other developing countries literacy is higher in urban than rural areas in Pakistan. It is also
higher among men than women.
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Table 15: Literacy Rate (10 years and above)214
Provinces
2001-02
2004-05
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2010-11
Over all
45
53
55
56
57
58
Male
58
65
67
69
69
69
Female
32
40
42
44
45
46
Urban
Areas
Male
64
71
72
71
74
74
72
78
79
80
81
81
Female
56
62
65
63
67
67
Rural
Areas
Male
36
44
45
49
48
49
51
58
60
64
63
63
Female
21
29
30
34
33
35
At the provincial level, in Punjab and Sindh it was 59 percent followed by 50 percent in KP and 45
percent in Baluchistan. The PSLM 2007/08 found a strong association between literacy rate and
household income suggesting that literacy rate varies, directly, with income (as well as with gender and
urban-rural location), and is highest amongst the high income quintile. The literacy-income table has been
included as follows.
Table 16: % Literacy Rates: Class, Urban-Rural Residence and Sex
URBAN
Income
Bracket
Male
Female
RURAL
Both
Male
Female
Both
PAKISTAN
80
63
71
64
34
48
1st Quintile
54
35
44
45
17
31
2nd Quintile
64
46
55
68
23
40
3rd Quintile
73
54
64
66
35
50
4th Quintile
82
65
74
73
44
58
81
87
83
57
70
93
5th Quintile
Source: PSLMS 2007/08
5.2.3.4 Major Systemic Challenges in Education215
The systemic challenges to education include: (i) Lack of access to basic education- with around 7 million
out-of-school primary age children; (ii) Parallel streams of education- creating/accentuating social
inequities; (iii) Lack of school in close proximity; (iv) Missing Facilities in schools- some schools even
being “shelterless”; (v) Shortage of qualified and trained teachers; (vi) Teacher absenteeism; (vii) Lack of
learning and teaching materials; (viii) Poor assessment/examination systems; (ix) Poor governance and
lack of capacity in education planners and managers (especially at the provincial level); (x) Lack of
effective supervision and monitoring; (xi) Ineffective (delayed and inadequate) assistance in emergencies.
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In addition, with a shortage of middle schools and secondary schools in close vicinity, a large number of
primary graduates, especially girls, cannot continue their education beyond Class V.
Access and quality of education can improve with improved governance, higher allocation and better
utilization of budgetary resources, strengthened public-private partnership, expansion of effective non
formal basic education network, and strong community participation.
Quality of Education
The quality of education has been a major casualty of the system’s inefficiency. The biggest victim has
been the public sector but quality cannot be assumed in private schools. Efforts to increase enrollments
are not sustainable in the absence of quality education. Re-prioritization of quality can only be initiated
with a common understanding of the term and then focus on the curriculum, textbooks and learning
materials, assessments, teachers and the learning environment.
5.2.3.5 Teacher Quality
There is a general consensus that the quality of teachers in the public sector is unsatisfactory. Poor quality
of teacher in the system in large numbers is owed to fragmented governance, an obsolete pre-service
training structure and a less than adequate in service training regime. Presence of incompetence in such a
huge quantity and permeation of malpractices in the profession have eroded the once exalted position
enjoyed by teachers under the eastern cultural milieu.
5.2.3.6 Missing Facilities in Public School
The poor quality of the existing learning environment is evident from the fact that a large number of
schools are missing basic infrastructure i.e. 37.7% schools up to elementary level are without boundary
wall, 33.9% without drinking water facility, 37% without latrines and around 60% of schools are without
electricity (Table ).
Table 17: Missing Facilities in Public Schools216
Province / Area
Without
Building
Without
Boundary
Wall
Without
Drinking
Water
Without
Latrine
Without
Electricity
Punjab
505
13,378
8,279
14,551
26,825
Sindh
11,669
24,470
26,240
22,588
39,616
KP
1,113
9,116
10,029
7,888
13,719
Baluchistan
681
7,689
4,197
8,425
9,806
AJK
2,705
4,498
3,074
3,390
4,083
Gilgit‐Baltistan
183
1,084
1,069
1,072
1,072
FATA
908
1,024
2,101
1,882
1,640
ICT
0
15
7
50
8
Total Pakistan
17,764
61,274
54,996
59,846
96,769
In %
10.90%
37.70%
33.90%
36.90%
59.60%
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To enhance access to education, particularly for girls in low income households, and to enhance
enrolment, output and quality, existing schools should be upgraded with the necessary infrastructure. The
missing facilities in public schools become more glaring, if analyzed from an urban/rural angle (Table ).
Table 18: Missing Facilities in Public Schools Pakistan: Urban/Rural Disparities 2008-09217
Missing Facilities
Electricity
Water
Latrine
Boundary Wall
Urban
Rural
Total
#
11,609
85,160
96,769
%
35.80%
65.50%
60.20%
#
2,179
52,817
54,996
%
6.70%
40.60%
34.20%
#
9,763
50,083
59,846
%
30.10%
38.50%
37.20%
#
9,026
52,248
61,274
%
27.90%
40.20%
38.10%
5.2.3.7 Emergencies
Pakistan has suffered serious emergency situations in recent years causing collateral damage on a large
scale. Schools have been worst hit by the earthquake and floods because the school infrastructure was not
constructed to bear the tremendous shock of the earthquake, and the school administration as well as the
students were not prepared to meet such kind of challenges. Pakistan’s education system has now
recognized the need for the preparation of individuals and groups to cope with the demands of
emergencies through organized and effective responses. Credible rehabilitation and disaster management
plans need to be put in place to ensure early restoration of the education service.
5.2.3.8 Social Exclusion
Education has a societal role of selecting, classifying, distributing, transmitting and evaluating
educational knowledge, reflecting both the distribution of power and the principle of social contract. The
education system in Pakistan is accused of strengthening the existing inequitable social structure as very
few people from the public sector system can move up the ladder of social mobility. If immediate
attention is not paid to reduce social exclusion and move towards inclusive development, the country
could face unprecedented social upheavals.
It is well documented that uneven distribution of resources, and opportunities and apprehensions of
sliding down the scale of poverty promote social exclusion. Increased levels of social exclusion express
themselves in different forms such as ethnic strife, sectarianism and extremism. Social exclusion or
extremism is not exclusively a function of the curriculum but a host of traditional factors like poverty,
inequity, political instability and injustice, and it becomes a huge challenge that calls for a
comprehensive, urgent response.
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5.2.3.9 Equity in Education
The education statistics, given above, depict large differences in access across gender, ethnic minorities,
provinces, regions and rural-urban divides. This results in weaker performance on equitable distribution
of educational opportunities. This discrimination and inequity has been the result of poor implementation
and social customs. Over the years, little attention has been paid to rectify the situation. The issue of
equity runs through the entire education system and has serious implications for sustainable and equitable
development in the country.
In 2005-06, the Gender Parity Index (GPI) for primary education was below the parity level 0.82 and 0.85
in 2007-08 for both Gross (GER) and Net Enrolment Ratios (NER). These figures showed significant
improvements from 2001-02 with a figure of 0.72218. The Index falls for the secondary level to 0.77 in
2005-06 and 0.77 in 2007-08 (GER and NER) but, again, registers improvement from its 2001-02 level of
0.73. Despite improvements it is evident that girls continue to face significant disadvantage in access as
they reach adulthood. Advocacy for equitable approaches to ensure quality of educational opportunities is
the fundamental need of the time.
5.2.3.10 Education Policy
Pakistan has formulated its National Education Policy (NEP) 2009 which requires federal-provincial
ownership and effective coordination within the basic principle of provincial autonomy as key to
successful implementation. In this context, the Policy limits the federal role to that of facilitator and
coordinator. The salient policy features include: achievement of Dakar EFA goals and MDGs by 2015;
introduction of Early Childhood Education (3‐5 years); setting primary education age at 6 to 10 years;
ensuring equity in Education (gender, geographical, Urban‐Rural areas); merging grades 11 and 12 into
the school education; ensuring waiver of maximum age limit for recruitment of female teachers;
extending availability of Technical and Vocational Education (TVE) at district and tehsil levels with
relevance to the labour market; raising enrolment in the higher education sector from an existing 4.7
percent to 10 percent by 2015, and 15 percent by 2020.
Education in general and ‘Education for All’ in particular, is one of the top priorities of the
government219. The country had a ten year Perspective Development Plan (2001-11), visualizing long
term macro-economic and sectoral growth strategies.
5.2.3.11 Uniformity
The Constitution of Pakistan demands a uniform education system in the country and entrusts the State
with the responsibility of organizing an equitable and effective system, with an aim to enhance the overall
wellbeing of Pakistanis. Contrary to this, there are three parallel streams in education that have created
unequal opportunities for children. These are public sector schools, private schools and Madrasahs.
Moreover there are sub-streams within each. Within public sector and private sector schools there are elite
and non-elite schools. The former caters to the economic elite only and therefore to a very small minority
of children. The majority of lower middle class to poor children study in the non-elite low quality private
and public schools. Most of these schools fail to produce students who can compete for high end jobs to
allow vertical social transition.
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The provision of educational services is a public function and the Constitution of Pakistan expects the
public sector to take the lead in performing this function. The relative failure of the public system has
resulted in the emergence of the private sector which violates the principle of uniformity.
5.2.3.12 Public-Private Divide
Existence of parallel systems of public and private education in Pakistan remains a cause for concern as it
creates inequitable social divides. First, a small but important component of the private sector caters to the
elite and offers high quality that only the rich can afford. Its long-term socio-economic impact is divisive
for the society. Second, the religious Madrasahs form a component of the private sector. The parallel
system in this case consists of a curriculum that lies outside the mainstream. Third, private sector
establishments within the mainstream are not properly regulated, which can leave students unprotected.
They do not often register with the Provincial authorities as they are required by law and do not often
comply with the regulations. Registered private schools often charge more fees than they are authorized to
take (the average household annual expenditure per student in a private establishment is reported to be
four times greater). Fourth, the curriculum and qualifications structures do not give a clear idea of their
equivalence with public sector qualifications, which can put these students at a disadvantage. Finally, the
public sector has failed to capitalize on the potential benefits from the growth in private sector.
Over the last few years, the private sector has made some attempts to bridge the gaps of education system
like inequitable access, poor quality, high drop outs, etc. These efforts have been through formal
agreements as well as on an informal basis. It is important to institutionalize the arrangement to optimize
results. The private sector can assist in areas like textbooks and libraries development, teacher education,
food supplement to poor children, literacy programs, etc.
5.2.3.13 Early Childhood Education (ECE)
Historically ECE has not been formally recognized by the public sector in Pakistan. The traditional
‘katchi’ class in some public sector schools has predominantly remained a familiarization stage towards
formal schooling for un-admitted, young students. A limited part of the Grade I curriculum is taught to
this group. Against this background, for the first time in Pakistan’s history, ECE was included as a
component in the Education Sector Reforms programme and funding was provided to the provincial
governments. ECE was also included in the National Plan of Action of Education for All. Pakistan is
committed to the Dakar Framework of Action, the first goal of which is to expand and improve
comprehensive ECE for all children, especially for the most vulnerable and disadvantaged.
Although progress has been achieved over the last few years, but further action is required to improve
provision of ECE across the country for wider participation, better quality and improved governance.
5.2.3.14 Technical Education and Vocational Training
Pakistan has a large population and therefore, a comparative advantage in labour force. However, low
skill levels dampen the potential of the labour force to significantly contribute to economic growth.
Improvements in the skill levels of the labour force will increase efficiency and competitiveness of the
local industry, attract international investment and allow overseas employment of Pakistanis generating a
flow of foreign remittances. The formal Technical and Vocational Education (TVE) system is not a major
supplier of skills to the country’s labour market. Like all other sectors of education in Pakistan, TVE also
suffers from issues of access as well as quality. While theoretically it caters to the market needs,
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practically it meets a very small portion of the demand. Therefore, the base of technical and vocational
skills provided to the economy in Pakistan is narrow. Generally, the certificate and diploma programs do
not seem to have a progression ladder into higher level skills. The current TVE certificate stream is too
narrow in its scope and does not cover the large variety of skills training that takes place in the traditional
sector. Two way cross-over between the academic and the applied / professional streams is lacking in the
system. The absence of a well-articulated qualifications system is a major structural shortcoming.
As the manufacturing and services sectors have expanded, skill requirements of the country have changed
as well, and there are needs for technical and vocational skills even in the traditional sector as it adopts
more productive techniques of production. The technical intensity of production processes will increase as
new technologies become more pervasive, thereby raising the demand for TVE skills of a higher quality.
5.2.3.15 Higher Education
Good quality, merit-oriented, equitable and efficient higher education is the most crucial instrument for
translating the dream of a knowledge-based economy into reality. The higher education sector contributes
to social goals of developing civic responsibility, social cohesion, and a more tolerant society. To its
traditional functions of producing skilled labour force and developing new knowledge through research, a
third is being added to the higher education sector the world over; service to society. It includes making a
contribution to the innovation process, economic growth, sustainable development and social cohesion.
Enhancing equitable access to higher education remains a difficult challenge for the higher education
sector in Pakistan. Although significant achievements have been recorded with an enhancement in access
to higher education rising from 2.2% of 18 to 23 year olds in 2002 to over 4.7% in 2008, participation
rates remain low compared to India (7%) and Malaysia (12%).
5.3 Causal Analysis for Human Development
The following is an account of the main causes for the current human development context in Pakistan,
which follows the situation analysis in examining the major sectors of health and education as distinct yet
mutually influencing areas.
5.3.1.1 Fragmented Governance
Governance, whether of health or education, is the overarching framework that determines the ability of
the State to meets its role and obligation as duty bearer: the responsibility to ensure that education and
health services of quality are available to all without discrimination. The largest proportion of the service
delivery in Pakistan remains with the public sector even as the private sector is growing it calls for a more
inclusive approach to dealing with basic service delivery. The roles are defined in the Constitution, a lack
of clarity in roles and responsibilities at different levels of government leads to unclear regimes of
accountability. In case of the provincial-district interaction the Local Government Ordinances have not
spelt out any functional divide and each province continues with its own interpretation of bottlenecks.
5.3.1.2 Health
Structural weaknesses in the health care system and the difficulties women face in accessing it impact
negatively on health outcomes. The trend of low spending on health needs to be reversed to improve key
outcomes, especially in relation to the relevant MDGs. In addition, some traditional cultural beliefs and
practices appear to be a deterrent to effective use of health services even when they are available.
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Poor infant feeding practices have been recognized as one of the major contributing factors to
malnutrition among young infants. In Pakistan, the 2006/07 PDHS showed that despite an increase in
exclusive breastfeeding rate over a period of 15 years, (25% in 1991 and 37% in 2006-7), levels in many
areas of the country remained disappointingly low. Nutrition surveys data from 2009 and 2010 in KP,
Sindh and Punjab showed significantly high levels of wasting among young children (6-23 months old)
compared with older children ( 24-59 months old). This is evidence that younger children are at higher
risk of malnutrition than the older children, probably because the transition from exclusive breastfeeding
to the introduction of complementary foods is usually difficult for children as the diet is not adequate, and
they are also more susceptible to disease and especially due to unawareness on this critical issue.
The data collected by the UN Inter Agency Mission on High Food Prices (July 2008) suggest that the
feeding practices and the quality of diet offered to children are generally inadequate. Rising food prices,
while not the principal cause of malnutrition, will affect the nutritional outcomes (particularly acute
malnutrition and stunting) both in terms of food availability and food choices.
Reasons for non-achievement of immunization targets are manifold but inter-related. While there are
significant gaps in health care delivery, the traditional beliefs pertaining to childhood immunizations,
mainly OPV, further reduce the utilization of these services. These include perceived harmful effects such
as vaccinations causing ill health and fever, inflicting pain to children through use of injections, and such
vaccinations as a possible source of inflicting sterility among children. Such beliefs are more common
among the remote areas and more prevalent among religiously orthodox segments and less developed
geographical areas of the country220.
There are multi-dimensional factors that cause high MMR including poor access221to maternal health
services, inadequate community health behaviours, early marriages and hence early pregnancies, too long
and high parities. The government is already addressing most of these issues through the National
Maternal Neonatal and Child Health Program and LHW Program. However, in view of the recent 18 th
constitutional amendment these programs have been devolved to provinces which are in the planning
phase.
One of the major reasons for stagnation in CPR is persistent short supply of contraceptives across the
country as well as inadequate access of women to contraceptives, while there is demand ranging to an
unmet need of 30%. Moreover, a study conducted by Population Council in 2009 found that the largest
proportion of the population not using contraceptives fall in the category of the poorest of the poor and
excluded communities. Hence, addressing this issue is tied to more complex socioeconomic concerns and
requires more integrated structural responses, including attitude and behaviour change. So too, with RH
issues outlined above, including domestic abuse-induced mental trauma.
In terms of healthcare services utilization, the private sector caters for more than 70% of the
population222. This low level of public sector utilization has been attributed to a plethora of factors like
cultural beliefs and trust in traditional and spiritual healers, and low levels of satisfaction in the public
health care services which are attributed to poor quality223, lack of availability and the poor attitude of
health care staff, poorer quality of medicines224,225, women’s social status in the society especially in the
rural areas226, and accessibility in terms of financial, social and geographic barriers 227. The availability
and regular supply of contraceptives is almost always compromised. Moreover, the issues of social
barriers, mobility and access, specifically for women, generate high unmet need for family planning
services for which no specific measures are directed to address the issue.
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The healthcare system in Pakistan and its utilization especially during the maternal period is known to
have a differential for females as compared to males. Cultural and social issues limit the use of services
by women; particularly the dearth of trained and skilled female healthcare providers and women’s limited
independent mobility228. As a result the system has failed to deliver efficient preventive and contraceptive
care, emergency obstetric and neonatal care, and other reproductive health services specifically in rural
areas where health facilities are also poorly maintained, poorly managed, and poorly supplied with
appropriate medicines.
5.3.1.3 Education
There are multiple causes of low literacy including social taboos, poverty, child labour, the illiteracy of
parents and families, and institutional weaknesses. Efforts to combat illiteracy have been halfhearted,
disjointed and not suited to local conditions and requirements. There are four main difficulties with
current literacy and non-formal learning programs. First, the quality of such programs is variable as they
are not regulated. One reason is the poor quality of teachers, which is also not regulated.
Second, a certification and accreditation regime is missing. There are no benchmarks or standards that can
be used for assessing literacy programs. As a consequence, it is difficult to link the certificate offered by
these programs to formal learning opportunities. Hence, graduates of these programs find it difficult to
enter into the formal sector. Third, current literacy programs are not well-linked to employment
opportunities. Fourth, literacy programs are often found to be effective if there is a follow-up programme
of reinforcement, and these are lacking at present.
Political will is a key component of moving forward. Addressing inconsistency in literacy related policies,
bias of conventional development planners against NFE approach that has led to frequent stoppage of
literacy projects, will remove some impediments to the development of this sub sector.
Teaching has become the employment of last resort of most educated young persons, especially males.
Reform is required in all areas: pre-service training and standardization of qualifications; professional
development; teacher remuneration, career progression and status; and governance and management of
the teaching workforce.
As important are the causes of lack of access and low quality of primary education. With net primary
enrolment below 60%, high non-attendance, drop out and repetition rates, are a serious concern.
Economic and social factors are key determiners, as is the fact that low quality education does appear to
add value to the economic potential of the poorest and most vulnerable segments of the population.
As outlined above the gender disparity in education is marked, and its causes are rooted both in
socioeconomic realities and cultural practices. These have been exacerbated in the crisis areas through
displacement and destruction of schools for girls.
5.3.2
Gap Analysis
Existing gaps in capacity, resources and implementation provide the frame of reference for UN and other
concerned agency engagement to address major shortcomings in human development indicators in
Pakistan.
HEALTH
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5.3.2.1 Capacity Gap
The provincial governments need assistance in improving current fragmented and almost ineffective
health system into a functional and effective health system which is capable of meeting health needs of all
segments of population on equitable basis. In view of devolution, assistance is needed in planning and
management of devolved programs, implementation and monitoring, and making evidence-based
decision-making. Special attention needs to be paid to RH-related awareness-raising and attitude change.
5.3.2.2
Implementation Gap
To achieve the MDGs requires strengthening the programs, specifically the TB control program, MNCH,
LHW, Malaria and AIDs control programs.
Assistance is needed in strengthening and creating new public private partnerships at the community level
through developing locally feasible and acceptable means and mechanisms to involve communities
specifically the most poor, socially excluded and marginalized communities.
Keeping in view the health requirements of various age groups in the population, the following appear to
be the minimum basic health needs:
1.
Access to adequate, safe and hygienic food;
2.
Access to knowledge and information on beneficial health practices;
3.
Access to prevention from preventable diseases including vaccine preventable illnesses;
4.
Access to clinical care for illnesses, accidents, and emergencies;
5.
Access to clinical care and support for chronic illnesses;
6.
Timely identification and management of potential threats to health including childhood illnesses,
pregnancy related risks and environmental hazards;
7.
Provision of safe deliveries and neonatal management, as well as addressing RH concerns
8.
Effective and efficient referral of high risk cases from community to higher levels of health care
delivery system;
9.
Specific measures to ensure universal health care coverage (reaching out to the most excluded)
10.
Community involvement in healthcare delivery.
11.
Health insurance for the poorest of the poor and the most excluded populations
5.3.2.3 Resource Gap
The health budget needs to be increased. It is now at X% of GDP which is well below other comparable
countries.
EDUCATION
5.3.2.4 Capacity Gap
Pre-18th amendment, education policies were prepared by the federal ministry with active
participation from the provincial authorities and experts, though the responsibility of
coordination rested solely with the federal ministry. Responding to questions about the
consistency or rationality of any policy measure was the duty of the federal ministry. Also,
preparation of any clarification sought by the national parliament was the task of the federal
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ministry. Discussions on key policy issues as well as dialogues and workshops on suggested
measures were almost always facilitated by the federal ministry.
It is still to be seen if the education departments of the provinces have learnt and developed
capacity to suggest viable education policies and ensure their coherence with the policies of other
provincial departments e.g., finance, social work, labour. With their limited institutional
capacity, each province may not be able to grasp and assess various challenges and present them
in a coherent policy document, at least in the next few years. Hence, capacity building support is
crucial in the immediate transition phase and beyond.
Educational management demands professional standards and expertise for which the traditional policy
makers at the ministries or the head teachers are untrained. Recognizing this, many countries around the
globe are paying special attention to developing school leaders. In contrast, most persons with
management responsibilities in Pakistan’s education sector have no relevant training. After the 18th
amendment considerable strengthening of planning capacity is required for programme development and
delivery at the provincial levels. An important requirement for planning is the availability of standards for
both input requirements and educational outcomes, which is lacking at present.
Adequate gender-sensitive planning also requires data and indicators of performance, as well as attitude
change. These have been severely lacking at all levels of educational activity and performance. Recently
the National Education Management Information System (NEMIS) has provided the basis for computing
indicators. However, these indicators are those that have been internationally identified and developed by
UNESCO or by some of the donors for cross- cutting international programs like Dakar Framework of
Action for EFA and Fast Track Initiative (FTI) for EFA. It is essential to develop a data base that covers
all planning needs specific to Pakistan’s context. The deficiencies in data developed by these systems led
the Government to undertake a comprehensive census, the National Education Census 2006, which for the
first time also covered all non-state-owned institutions, colleges and universities.
Moreover, even when the data is available, its use remains insufficient in decision-making and planning
partly due to the culture of not using quantitative analysis and partly because the managers lack the
relevant capacities. More importantly, this is also due to the large lag between data collection and data
dissemination.
Information based planning also receives setback from political interventions that distort decision making
and also impacts merit and efficiency. Unless political interference and corruption are rooted out, social
policies and plans would have low impact; and this is more devastating for Education sector.
5.3.2.5 Implementation Gap
The implementation gap, though less well documented, is believed to be more persistent in that it affects
many aspects of governance and the allocation and use of resources. The underlying causes may lie in the
lack of a planning culture, planning capacity and weaknesses in the accountability mechanisms. Another
problem in implementation is the corruption that is believed to pervade the entire system. The diversion
of allocations to personal use at most levels, political influence, and favoritism are believed to interfere in
the allocation of resources. The pervasive nature of corruption indicates a deeper problem where service
to students and learners is not at the forefront of thinking and behavior on the part of some involved in
operating the system.
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5.3.2.6 Setting Minimum Standards
A key deficit in the system is the absence of clearly articulated minimum standards for most educational
interventions and their outcomes. Even where these are established, there is no measurement or structured
follow up. As a result the impact of interventions remains subject to speculation.
5.3.2.7 Resource Gap
The low resources stand in sharp contrast to the commitment required by policy statements which set up
ambitious goals for the education sector. The contrast between the vision and the commitment has been
pointed out by the Planning Commission: “We cannot spend only 2.7 % of our GDP on education and
expect to become a vibrant knowledge economy.”229
Financial resources for education come largely from the public sector. For the years 2004-5, 2006-7,
2008-9 and 2009-10, the percent of GDP spend on education was 2.2, 2.5, 2.1 and 2.05 respectively. On
average Pakistan spent 2% on education during the period 1998 to 2008. Spending on education is far less
than needed and there is a declining trend in public expenditure. While Pakistan's spending is the lowest
in South Asia (Table), factors like weak governance, ineffective service delivery, poor administration, and
lack of accountability aggravate the situation.
Table 19: Comparison of Public Sector Spending on Education 230
Country
Public Sector spending
Literacy Rate (%)
as % GDP
Bangladesh
2.6
55
India
3.3
‐
Indonesia
3.5
‐
Iran
5.2
‐
Malaysia
4.7
92.1
Nepal
3.2
57.9
Pakistan
2.1
57
Sri Lanka
…
90.6
Vietnam
5.3
92.5
5.4 Rights Holders and Duty Bearers
The International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, which Pakistan ratified on 17 April
2008, recognizes in Article 12 the right of everyone to the enjoyment of the highest attainable standard of
physical and mental health. The Article, in particular, obliges the State to take steps in relation to
stillbirths and infant mortality; and the prevention, treatment and control of epidemic, endemic,
occupational and other diseases. Article 13 recognizes the right of everyone to education and, in
particular, the right that primary education shall be compulsory and available free to all. Related to adult
literacy programmes, Article 13(2) (d) provides that “Fundamental education shall be encouraged or
intensified as far as possible for those persons who have not received or completed the whole period of
their primary education”. Article 13(1) makes reference to the quality of education in that it recognizes
that education shall strengthen respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms; “They further agree
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that education shall enable all persons to participate effectively in a free society, promote understanding,
tolerance and friendship among all nations and all racial, ethnic or religious groups, and further the
activities of the United Nations for the maintenance of peace.”
Section 9 of the Constitution (Eighteenth Amendment) Act, 2010 inserted a new Article 25A in
the Constitution, with effect from. April 19, 2010 that guarantees the right to free and
compulsory education. This clause is important enough to cite in full: “Right to education ---The
State shall provide free and compulsory education to all children of the age of five to sixteen
years in such manner as may be determined by law”.
The duty bearers are varied. In relation to education, parents have a duty to make their best efforts to send
their children to school and teachers have a duty to make their best efforts to provide a safe learning
environment, free from corporal punishment, in which the principles of equality and tolerance are
promoted. They are also rights holders who should be able to participate in the decision making processes
related to the delivery of quality education. The State has a duty to provide quality education, maintain
safe schools, and protect children and educational professionals from acts of violence. The State must
target those who are particularly marginalized and excluded from education and address underlying issues
such as child labour and human trafficking. In relation to health, while the State is the primary duty
bearer, citizens must be able to realize their role in the process. For example, communities can be
empowered to lobby the government to increase its budget allocation for health; and when the
government establishes an effective waste management system citizens are obliged not to discard their
waste elsewhere where it may block drains and create stagnant pools of water that may become malarial
breeding grounds.
5.5 Human Security
Human security is an integral part of human development in that it ensures against threats to people’s
freedoms, the expansion of which constitutes human development. This concept of security focuses on all
the risks to human development. It is thus not only broader than the traditional security paradigm that
priorities the integrity of a country’s territorial borders but is also wider than a framework that focuses on
individuals caught up in conflict but only focuses on violence and their personal security. It includes
safety from threats of job losses, political repression, hunger, disease, and natural disasters.
Human rights feed into this concept of human security in two important ways. First, ensuring the
realization of the rights contained in a State’s constitution and in international conventions and protocols
will not only reduce these risks to development but contribute to human development. Second, the
realization of these rights, particularly those related to elections, political representation, and participation
contained in, for example, the ICCPR231 and CEDAW232, will empower people to strive for further
reductions of these risks and an enlargement of the choices and freedoms that they have.
International standards and protocols are an important articulation of these rights because they provide a
legal and normative basis for the improvements in human welfare that people seek. They are also
important to the UN’s role in Pakistan and its comparative advantage in advocating for the ratification of
instruments and the realization of the rights therein, in advising and supporting the Government to fulfill
its obligations, and in convening groups to find solutions to the challenges to human development.
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5.6 Situation Analysis for Human Security
This section provides a descriptive analysis of the risks to human development that is centered on those
groups who are particularly excluded from development. It describes their exclusion in terms of rights
unfulfilled and identifies those duty bearers who have a role in fulfilling those rights. The section then
examines the causes of these exclusions including the identification of capacity gaps. From a survey of
the literature, the groups most excluded from development are women, children and youth, workers and
bonded labourers, religious minorities, and refugees and internally displaced persons. In addition,
enhancing the fundamental freedoms of association and expression should be an urgent priority to create
the enabling environment for a secure and safe space within which development needs to take place. For
instance, on occasion those seeking to bring the government to account or bring about change were
prevented from exercising their fundamental rights which in turn affected their ability to act effectively.
Media reporting was restricted by insecurity, targeted violence and reporting restrictions. 233
5.6.1
Women
Women are excluded from development in diverse ways. The status of women is not homogenous and
different groups are excluded in different ways. Some experience multiple exclusions and others play a
greater role in shaping their own destiny.
Violence against women is a major challenge. Manifestations include murder, committed predominantly
by relatives and often in relation to so called issues of honour, domestic violence, sexual assault, and acid
throwing. [See Table below] The practice of early marriage and exchanging girls as a means of settling
disputes persists 234 and the UN Committee on the Rights of the Child (UNCRC) in its 2009 Report on
Pakistan235, noted that this had not diminished since the last Committee report in 2003. Violence
transcends issues of class, religion, ethnicity and geography. The lack of reliable data makes it difficult to
assess the scale of the issue. Shame and pressure leads to incidents not being reported and deficiencies in
the government record system result in under reporting. Reports by civil society organizations and the
media suggest an increasing trend of violence. Women’s reduced access to justice impacts negatively on
the proper investigation and prosecution of crimes.236
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Cases of violence against women in Pakistan, 2004-09
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2004
Burnings
Killings
2005
2006
Domestic Violence
Sexual Harassment
2007
2008
2009
Kidnapping
Suicide (including attempts)
Figure 23: Violence against women 2004 - 2009
Women face difficulties in accessing the paid labour market. Women have a lower participation rate in
the labour force as compared to men. The Gender Inequality Index of the Human Development Report
2010237 puts the labour force participation rate as at 21.8% for women and 86.7% for men; a figure which
is below the lowest average of the six geographical groupings used by the Report (the Arab States at
27%). Women are concentrated in the informal labour market and the home-based worker sector and as
such face specific challenges, particularly in relation to social protection.238 Hurdles to participation
include illiteracy, social attitudes which restrict mobility, particularly in rural areas, and a deteriorating
human security situation.
Reserved seats in Parliament have given visibility to the political participation of women and the signs are
encouraging. Female members of the National Assembly were the most active, introducing private
members’ bills for example239. Concern remains though that election through reserved seats and the
absence of an electoral base undermines their legitimacy which in turn diminishes their influence within
their political party and in the legislature. Disenfranchisement limits the political participation of women.
More generally, challenges need to be overcome to ensure that women are able to exercise their rights.
These require broad attitude change as well as policy reform. For example, there are instances of womenheaded households being unable to obtain humanitarian aid provided at IDP camps because the necessary
NIC was denied them by their families240. The lack of an NIC also impacts negatively on land ownership.
However, key positive achievements such as the enactment of legislation on sexual harassment and the
efforts of civil society to engage in research and capacity development, as well as ongoing efforts on
violence prevention through awareness-raising with men and boys, are encouraging.
5.6.2
Children
Violence against children including corporal punishment at home and in schools, sexual abuse
particularly of girls in rural areas, and child abduction needs to be addressed. 241 The 2009 Report of the
UNCRC noted the challenges to protection included the overall human rights situation in the context of
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the war on terrorism; recruitment of children into armed conflict; and the application of the anti-terrorism
legislation to minors.
Children who work are excluded in multiple ways; as well as being denied the right to childhood work
impacts negatively on education and health. There is no current data on the numbers of child workers, but
it is known to be prevalent among Afghan Refugee children242 and includes children in bonded labour.
Some work is injurious to health. Physical and sexual abuse in the workplace, particularly affects female
domestic workers.
Street children suffer a complex interaction of violence, sexual abuse, drug abuse, lack of education, a
lack of access to welfare benefits in the absence of an NIC, a lack of shelter, and higher rates of child
mortality.243 Children in the criminal justice system face challenges in relation to procedure, the age of
responsibility, the length of detention and the treatment there.244
Education is dealt with above but it is worth highlighting how human insecurity is hindering access. The
available data suggests there is a link with conflict, with particularly low attendance for IDP children
living in host communities.245 Violence in Balochistan, including the targeting of teachers and schools,
has had a negative impact on education.246 In 2009 government schools were open for 120 days compared
to around 220 in the rest of Pakistan. Safety concerns have caused teachers to seek transfers leaving
schools under staffed or with less qualified replacements.
5.6.3
Workers and Bonded Labourers
The right to earn a living wage from work in a safe environment is a significant challenge. Tens of
thousands have lost their jobs due to the closure of mills and factories due to load shedding. The right to
freedom of assembly has been affected by restrictions on joining a trade union. 247
Although bonded labor has been outlawed under domestic legislation, it is practiced, particularly in the
agricultural sector in Sindh, and has become an issue of human trafficking.248
5.6.4
Refugees
The State has made key gains such as obtaining consensus around the Management and Repatriation
Strategy for Afghan Refugees in Pakistan (adopted in March 2010), but more needs to be done. The
Afghan refugee population in Pakistan comprises an extremely vulnerable and marginalized group that
both shares the general needs of other excluded populations and also has special needs due to its noncitizen status within Pakistan. Concentrated in KP, FATA, Balochistan and Karachi, in the particular
context of armed conflict, their presence is looked at with suspicion and is a barrier to their getting aid
during Human-made and natural disasters. Issues related to security from violence and exploitation are a
cultural taboo for refugees and local population alike and GBV cases are often underreported. Thus,
obtaining information is extremely difficult and providing interventions from outside Afghan
communities is refused. Cases of GBV of female-headed households and male survivors continue to
require greater attention, while many Afghan refugee children and adolescents living in urban areas in
Pakistan are deprived of education and work in hazardous environments under difficult conditions to
support their households where they are subject to further exploitation and abuse.249
Refugees and asylum seekers do not have access to basic facilities and essential services including
education, health care and work, and, with limited income opportunities they survive through informal
work arrangements. UNHCR projects provide subsistence support to extremely vulnerable individuals
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and as well as other limited assistance in areas such as education, however it is insufficient to meet their
needs. 250
5.6.5
Religious Minorities
Religious minorities remain outside the mainstream and special attention needs to be paid to their rights
and welfare. Discrimination and neglect have led to social vulnerability in the form of lack of access to
education, jobs, healthcare, and flood-related assistance. 251 Violent attacks against the person, their home
and their place of worship, and abductions present a challenging environment. Based on their population
size, Ahmedis were particularly targeted. The misuse of the blasphemy laws against minorities increases
their vulnerability.252 The combination of attacks on minorities and their perceived tolerance by the State
are part of a long-term pattern of State inability of protection of minorities at all levels: judicial, executive
and legislative.253
5.6.6
Internally Displaced Persons
This is dealt with elsewhere but highlighted here is the issue of personal security. The key challenge is
ensure that IDPs are being returned to safe areas.254 Tying humanitarian assistance to time-bound returns
may discriminate against the most vulnerable IDPs. Persons displaced from areas not officially declared
conflict zones cannot register as IDPs, thus denying them access to aid.
5.7 Causal Analysis for Human Security
The political leadership in Pakistan faces a complex interaction of challenges in pursuing its development
goals to improve service delivery of basic amenities and implement the political, economic and social
reforms needed to enlarge the choices and freedoms that people have. Inherited structural constraints on
governance cannot be overcome swiftly and anti-democratic veto players and deep social and political
cleavages impede the ability of the government to build a broad consensus on reform. Extreme poverty,
the lack of an educated workforce, natural disasters, and violence act as constraints on the leadership to
manage change.
Despite these constraints, the Government has shown commitment to change. The ratification of
international treaty obligations, most recently the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights,
and the Convention against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment,
both of which were ratified on 23 June 2010, demonstrate this. Recent constitutional amendments,
particularly the Article 25A right to free education for those aged 5 to 16, and the Article 19A right to
information in matters of public importance reinforce this. Legislation has been passed in relation to
matters such as bonded labour and so called honor killings, and bills have been introduced in relation to
matters such domestic violence, and corporal punishment. Government policy and plans have been
formulated on diverse issues such as meeting the Millennium Development Goals, and a peace building
strategy for FATA and KP.
The focus now needs to be on sustaining that commitment to enable the effective implementation of
policy, the passage of bills into legislation, and increased budgetary support to provide the necessary
funding to fulfill these development commitments. Commitment is crucial but this will not suffice to
counter too small budget allocations in areas such as health and education; 0.54% GDP and just over 2%
GDP, respectively.
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Implementation on the ground is hampered by capacity gaps, a lack of awareness of people’s rights, and
negative social attitudes reinforced by discriminatory legislation. For example there have been instances
where although the Election Commission issued instructions to set up female booths for voting in byelections this was not done and women were barred from voting in all the combined polling stations by an
understanding between all the contesting political parties. Such incidents represent an opportunity for the
Election Commission to demonstrate its commitment to universal suffrage and fulfill its obligations under
the ICCPR and CEDAW by raising awareness of rights among election officials, re-holding the byelection, and instigating disciplinary measures against the relevant officials. Attitude change and
rethinking some cultural practices are required to address GBV and RH issues, as well as to increase
CPR.
Institutional capacity is particularly weak in relation to the investigation and prosecution of offences,
creating a culture of impunity. The attitudes of those in the criminal justice system, relating to the
acceptance that women, children, and religious minorities have rights, and that violence in the home is a
public and not a private issue, may be exacerbating the situation. Again this presents an opportunity for
the government to show leadership. For example while it may not currently be feasible for the
government to implement reforms of the blasphemy laws, the Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory
Authority could take action against hate speech in the media by developing systems to monitor and
penalize violations of the Media Code of Conduct.
The ability of all parties in the Parliamentary Committee for Constitutional Reform to pass the 18 th
Amendment unanimously demonstrates what can be achieved when parliament rises above the dominance
of partisan issues to reach consensus on priority issues. The introduction of private members’ bills on key
development and human rights issues by female members of the National Assembly is a positive step.
What is need now is the diffusion of that commitment to parliamentarians in general to overcome the
slow pace of legislation that is hampering reform efforts. As well as measures to build consensus,
increased attendance and participation would also assist. Steps need to be taken to understand why during
the 2nd Parliamentary Year, almost one-fourth (23%) of the Members of the National Assembly did not
participate at all in any form of the parliamentary business whatsoever. There was a lack of quorum in
almost every sitting throughout the parliamentary year (March 2009-April 2010). However, the
Members pointed it out only on three occasions.255
It is also important to ensure that parliamentarians both in the National Assembly and, especially since the
18th Amendment, the Provincial Assemblies have the technical support they need to introduce legislation
that is in conformity with international treaty obligations. For example the Punjab Industrial Relations Act
2010, in raising the threshold of workers from 10 to 50 to form a union, has deprived many of the right to
freedom of association. In relation to child labour, the International Labour Organisation’s 2011 Report of
the Committee of Experts on the Application of Conventions and Recommendations noted that Pakistan
has not implemented obligations into its domestic legislation.256
Although the State is primarily responsible for guaranteeing the fundamental human rights of citizens,
citizens themselves are also duty bearers. Social attitudes are exacerbating social exclusions. One
manifestation is the significantly higher under 2 mortality rate for girls owing to inadequate care,
malnutrition and a lack of immunization. Intolerance is being acted upon and driving attacks on the
media, political violence, and identity based human rights violations.
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The factors producing these attitudes may include discrimination and violence in the home environment,
reinforced by prejudices in the education curriculum. The ignorance of segregation and the absence of
positive role models to counter prejudice, particularly in relation to religious minorities and women, may
foster the acceptance of certain beliefs. The poor education and poverty of victims may be both a result
and cause of discrimination, reinforcing perceptions of inferiority. Some factors may be part of a vicious
cycle in perpetuating attitudes; domestic violence may be caused by specific attitudes towards women and
the witnessing of that violence may influence the formation of the same attitudes about women. The State
can play a role in reversing this trend by reforming the education curriculum, repealing discriminatory
legislation, and promoting non-discrimination in institutions such as the police and civil service.
5.8 Duty Bearers and Rights Holders
The core international human rights instruments represent an important way of transforming the excluded
groups described in the situation analysis into empowered rights holders, and of identifying the relevant
responsible duty bearers. The ratification of many of these instruments by Pakistan demonstrates a
positive commitment to the rights enshrined in these treaties. Although many of the rights contained in
these treaties are triggered by the situation analysis, the following are examples to demonstrate the
breadth of the rights invoked. It should be noted that these rights are applicable to the Afghan refugee
population in Pakistan as well. CEDAW, CRC and ICCPR and related international covenants signed by
Pakistan form the basis of the rights and obligations outlined in this section.
The term ‘the State’ encompasses many actors whose responsibility it is to ensure the effective realization
of these rights and includes government leaders, inspection monitors, teachers, the police, prison staff, the
courts, and the military. Duty bearers are also those who violate or facilitate the violation of rights and
may include employers, parents, families, citizens, NGOs, the media, members of political parties,
terrorists and insurgents.
Civil society has an important role to play in collaborating with the government to provide service
delivery and humanitarian assistance. There is also an important role in terms of advocacy include raising
awareness of rights, promoting changes in legislation and policy making, conducting research, and
analyzing and publishing data. The media has recently emerged as an entity that has shown willingness to
highlight issues and stimulate debate. As standards vary care needs to be taken that the media is not used
to publish hate speech. The Constitutional amendment to create a right to information in matters of public
importance presents an opportunity to build on the work of both civil society and the media.
5.9 Conclusion
Given the complex interaction of challenges that Pakistan is currently facing in relation to human
development, it is crucial that everyone is able to participate in providing solutions and setting the country
on a path to inclusive growth. With close to 80 million children and young persons under the age of 18,
investment in and protection of them is vital to enable them to fulfill their future roles as part of an
educated and skilled workforce that can contribute to growth and as part of an active citizenry that
participates in the electoral and political processes. Similarly, women too, if allowed, can play a vital role
whether through community engagement, paid work or political participation. This requires a sea change
in attitudes to understand that the majority of the population is not a burden but an active partner in
contributing to solutions.
The Government has a key responsibility to provide leadership to the process and ensure that all actors
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own and support this vision. This will require assistance in relation to institutional capacity building, and
particularly so at the provincial level following devolution introduced by the 18th Amendment. An
important component of this is technical assistance in relation to the collection and analysis of data
without which evidence-based policy-making will not be viable. Assistance will also be needed in
improving the availability and management of budgetary resources. Interventions to mobilize and
empower citizens to hold State actors to account in relation to effective service delivery and the protection
of rights will also need support.
Recent events have shown that progress can be quickly undermined by natural disasters. The
displacement of large sectors of the population, whether because of insecurity or natural disasters, puts an
enormous strain on human and financial resources which the dedicated commitment of the former is not
enough to counteract. Displacement looks set to be a continuing issue and therefore it is important that the
government has the support it needs to minimize the effects of displacement.
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6 State Effectiveness257
For human development to take place the State must be able to deliver essential services and create an
enabling environment in which people can take charge of their own lives to bring about improvements.
This requires the State to be able to develop and implement policy effectively. This process must be
inclusive and requires people to have a role, through the process, in deciding who will make those policy
decisions and, through consultation, a role in what those decisions will be. Accountability mechanisms
are important to ensure that those decisions are implemented effectively. It is important to ensure broad
participation in both the decision making and accountability process to ensure everyone, not just those
who voted for the winning or majority party, feels that they have a stake in development. This
participation is also important for the consolidation of the electoral process as the legitimate means of
deciding who will wield power. The delivery of services and the creation of an enabling environment can
be undermined by political instability, personal insecurity, weak rule of law, and corruption. This chapter
addresses these risks after an examination of the electoral processes, accountability mechanisms, and
service delivery systems.
The last few years have seen participative decision making in the form of landmark constitutional
developments. 7th National Finance Commission was unanimously approved in 2009 followed by passing
18th Constitutional Amendment Act in 2010 by the parliament. These developments have established a
new framework of devolution of powers from federation to provinces and new opportunities and
challenges are emerging with greater scope for public participation. Reform and proposals to implement
reform in Gilgit Baltistan and FATA are positive developments. The successful implementation of these
reforms will strengthen the emerging democracy in Pakistan.
6.1 Situational Analysis
This section discusses seven processes and outcomes as the major constituents of state effectiveness.
These include elections, accountability, service delivery, political stability, regulatory quality, rule of law
and integrity management.
6.1.1
Elections
The political and economic transformation Status Index of the Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI)
records an improvement in political participation and the stability of democratic institutions in Pakistan.
In 2010, political participation ranked at 4.8/10 as compared to 4/10 in 2006. Similarly stability of
democratic institutions ranked at 2/10 as compared to 1.5/10 in 2006258. International Parliamentary
Union (IPU) ranks Pakistan 48th out of 186 nations based upon number of women in parliament. After
2008 elections Pakistan has 22.2% female parliamentarians (76 out of 342 seats) and 17/100 female
senators in 2009 senate polls.
Despite the above improvements there is still a need to further strengthen the process. Important entry
points could be further enabling women candidates and voters to fully participate in the electoral process,
and further improving the capacity of the election commission and civilian law enforcement agencies to
supervise and deliver a free, fair and transparent process. The strategic action plan of ECP 2010-2014 is a
positive step in this direction and needs implementation.259
The injunction introduced into Article 140A of the Constitution by the 18th Amendment for local elections
to be held in the provinces by the Election Commission of Pakistan is a positive development in that it
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bolsters the independence and therefore the legitimacy of the elections. Local government elections were
scheduled to be held in 2009 but have, until now, been postponed by the provincial governments pending
reform of the local government system.
Participation of all major ethnicities and minorities has been ensured in the constitution. Giving political
voice to the socially excluded e.g. Kammi (worker) and the landless would be a further step in the right
direction.260 The numeric weight of the lower classes makes them a vital resource in democratic politics.
Inequalities rooted in society generally translate into unequal political influence. Increased political
participation of these socially excluded groups will lead to a pro-poor public policy generally, and
solutions in service delivery specifically 261.
6.1.2
Accountability
Accountability has several elements, the most important of which is the legal framework and the judicial
system that keep checks on the various functionaries of the State. As shown in Figure , Pakistan’s voice
and accountability index has steadily risen since 2003 but a comparison across south Asia (Figure 23)
points towards the need to strengthen the legal framework and institutions. Such steps will improve the
public’s general confidence in the system, engage the disenchanted among youth and improve service
delivery.
Media and a vibrant civil society are positive developments in changing the perceptions of people about
accountability. According to Global Integrity Index, Pakistan’s media scored 72/100 in 2008 and regarded
as moderate; an improvement from 2006 when media was very weak i.e. 40/100. Multitude of TV
channels is freely exposing the weaknesses of the institutions and state is responding more positively to
these issues. Media has equipped people with a resource to raise their voice and empowered them to make
an effort to change. TV channels in regional languages are very positive development for political
awareness, art and culture of diverse population of Pakistan. According to Global Integrity Index,
Pakistan’s civil society organizations scored 91/100 in 2008 and regarded as very strong. This positive
element needs further support and inputs for creating public awareness and positive action against
growing corruption.
Figure 24: Voice and Accountability in Pakistan (1969-2009)262
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Figure 25: Voice and Accountability in South Asia263
6.1.3
Service delivery
Pakistan’s ranking on Governance effectiveness compares well in South Asia but still needs considerable
improvement.264, 265 This will need improvements in the quality of public services which can elevate
user’s satisfaction with roads, health, education, garbage disposal, sewerage and sanitation, water supply,
agricultural services, electricity, and gas supply.266 Except for electricity and gas, the percentages of
satisfied households for the rest of these services, have increased in 2009-10 as compared to 2001-02.267,
268
However long strides still need to be taken to further improve users’ satisfaction. In the meanwhile, the
gap is being filled via continuous growth in the private service sectors relating to, for example, security,
education and health. In most of mainland South Asia but in Pakistan in particular, the private sector has
stepped in to provide quality ‘services’ to the segments of the population that have the means to pay for
it.269 There is a need to particularly cater to the poor who cannot pay a higher price for these public goods.
For improvements in public services, the outcomes of landmark constitutional amendments will depend
on protection of human rights through land reforms, electoral reforms, civil services reform and
overhauling of criminal justice system.270 The institutional design also needs reform to strengthen the
implementation capacity of the State.
Among the key factors that have adversely affected service delivery are increased arbitrariness in
decision-making in disregard of merit, corruption and lack of accountability, declining standards of the
bureaucracy. In addition parliamentary support for effective governance remains weak, which is
compounded by judicial delays.
The challenges to improvements in public services also include growing population and urbanization,
pervasive resource and institutional constraints, and isolated delivery mechanisms.271 The quality of
service rendered in public offices may vary according to the status of the citizen. There is a need to
empower the ordinary citizen, the poor, socially marginalized groups, minorities, women and the
disabled; to have greater and freer access to services without any hurdle.
6.1.4
Political Stability and Personal Security272
The government has shown resilience in the face of many crises like Floods and internal disagreements in
political coalitions. Successful military actions in border areas of FATA and Swat have helped in
decreasing violence in KP and improving the security situation since 2008. There is a very encouraging
step taken by the state in the form of 2011 amendment in FCR and extension of Political parties act 2002
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in FATA on August 13,2011.Credible dialogue between the political parties on making and unmaking the
government at all levels was encouraging in Punjab, Sindh and in the federal government. It is a sign of a
maturing democracy in Pakistan. There is need to promote this trend and encouraging political leadership
to express their differences in constructive and non-violent fashion.
However, the WGI for political stability points towards the need for further political stability.273
Regionally, although FATA, KP and Balochistan are the areas most affected by violence, terrorism is
undermining security in urban areas. On the positive side, the number of terrorist, ethno-political violence
and sectarian incidents decreased in 2010 by 21% as compared to 2009. But the spike in such incidents in
Karachi in 2011 is a challenge to political stability274.
The reach of present administrative system in FATA is limited275 and the inability to effectively secure
the border with Afghanistan is exacerbating transnational organized crime in the form of drug, arms and
human trafficking.276 According to one estimate the annual revenue generated by Afghan opiate
trafficking to and through Pakistan exceeds $ 1 billion per year277. GB, FATA, Islamabad capital territory
and AJK are under federal government after passage of 18TH Amendment so despite devolution, federal
government has direct responsibility of governance in these areas. Therefore, the capacity of federal as
well as provincial governments needs to be improved to ameliorate the condition of personal security.
Due to multiple socio-economic factors crime rates are on the rise. According to an opinion poll
conducted in spring 2009, 93% of Pakistanis surveyed consider “crime” as the biggest problem they
face278. Enforced disappearances are particularly an issue in Balochistan.279The Supreme Court of
Pakistan has taken it up and there was a positive response from other state institutions to address the
problem.
Like many other countries, organized crime in Pakistan exists in various forms - including drug and
precursors trafficking, money laundering, extortion, murder, cyber-crime and fraud. Other criminal
operations engage in human trafficking and migrant smuggling, corruption, timber trade, kidnapping,
political violence and terrorism. These forms of organized crime, orchestrated by complex informal
networks of supplier rings, wholesalers, financiers, protectors and patrons have resulted in an extensive
illegal network. Some of these crimes only have domestic implications, but most others have more
regional and global consequences. Law enforcement agencies struggle to interdict trafficking and
smuggling of various kinds and scales, particularly at the borders, at a serious cost to governance,
development and security – not only in Pakistan but around the world. Balochistan, KP and FATA are
particularly vulnerable. The solution, like the problem, does not lie exclusively in Pakistan. Regional
cooperation and coordination needs to be strengthened to effectively address organized crime.
Since some of the border areas are also hideouts for non-state elements, their combined activities and the
understandable counter operations by the state institutions have led to displacement of huge number of
people in Swat, and FATA. The most vulnerable groups are the poor, women and elderly. There is
absence of data to ascertain the actual numbers of affected people. State does not have capacity to assess
the total needs and respond effectively within its existing resources. This capacity gap has a direct bearing
on the administrative institutions of service delivery.
6.1.5
Rule of Law280
A positive trend has been set by the higher judiciary to uphold rule of law. However the relevant
indicators point towards the need for further improvements.281Pakistan has diverse systems of dispute
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resolution, reflecting the diversity of its communities and the accompanying devolution of powers below
the federal level. Yet, access to justice, in whatever form the processes take, is crucial to personal security
and national stability. The Access to Justice Programme has been a focus of international donors such as
Asian Development Bank but qualitative impact of these interventions is uncertain282.
Gaps in equipment and border management are hurdles to preventing the flow of drugs, arms, money and
insurgents which are the direct and indirect means and agents of violence. The security vacuum,
particularly in the border areas, is contributing to trade in arms and drugs, migrant smuggling and human
trafficking which are further destabilizing the region and has negative impact on economy283.
Capacity issues in the legal aid system reduce the effectiveness of government-sponsored advice and
representation for defendants. There is a strong reliance on judges to manage cases and police-prosecutor
cooperation tends to cease after the handover of initial incident reports undermining the capacity of
prosecutors. The unsuccessful prosecution of terrorism cases is due to insecurity, unreformed rules of
criminal evidence, and a poor investigative capacity of the police.
The probation service and prison system face challenges in working together with the community and
other partners to rehabilitate offenders. Poorly resourced and overcrowded prisons do not have the
capacity to rehabilitate offenders or address the ideological beliefs behind the acts of terrorists.
Higher Judiciary in Pakistan is emerging as an institution of hope for people to redress their grievances.
However, this trend is still to be followed by their junior colleagues at district level. Court cases arising
from land disputes continue in courts for years affecting the vulnerable groups like women much more
than others284. During Floods of 2010 many women lost their land ownership documents and courts will
be facing much more cases. Alternate Dispute Resolution (ADR) mechanisms for civil matters, the
prompt resolution of cases and the enforcement of private contracts are absent. Professionalizing the bar
councils and ensuring the timely disposal of cases requires training as well as a change in attitude of
people and in the legal paradigm285.
As part of its broader legislative and regulatory framework against criminality, the GOP has signed,
acceded to, or ratified a number of international instruments. Examples include agreements relating to
narcotics, terrorism and corruption. In many cases, elements of these obligations have already been
incorporated into domestic law; in others, a gap exists between the international level and local
implementation.
The integrity of the legal system is being undermined by the ability of people to use influence and bribes
to avoid judgment, promoting a culture of impunity. This may have a direct bearing on the perceptions of
people about the legitimacy and capacity of these institutions.
6.1.6
Regulatory Quality286
According to WBI regulatory quality of Pakistan has generally improved between 2004 and 2009 placing
Pakistan in the 33.3 percentile. In the region, Pakistan stands ahead of Nepal, Bangladesh, Burma and
Afghanistan.
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Figure 26: Regulatory Quality in Pakistan (1969-2009)287
Figure 27: Regulatory Quality in South Asia (2009)288
The 2006 Doing Business report particularly commends efforts to liberalise trade and improve systems of
taxation, as well as reduce corporate tax rates. The International Finance Corporation recently ranked
Pakistan at 85 out of the 183 economies surveyed for the cost of doing business.289
Investment needs of the country can be met with, by improving the overall political stability, policy
certainty, further reduction in red tape, improvement in contract enforcement, commercial dispute
resolution and alternate dispute resolution systems.
6.1.7
Integrity Management
Various indicators related to integrity management in public services, point towards the need for further
and continuous improvement.290 Institutionalized integrity management is particularly needed in
Pakistan’s tax, power generation and revenue administration291. To facilitate this process a review of
discretionary powers, regulatory mechanisms and human resource management is necessary with a focus
on recruitment, training, motivation, compensation and automation. This will reduce the cost of doing
business, facilitate service delivery and encourage international investors. 292 The need is especially acute
with the growth of the economy and the increasing complexity in procurement issues and government
contracts.293 This will strengthen rule of law, reduce organized crime, increase the chances for economic,
political and social development and help in prevention of conflicts and civil wars. It will also decrease
the level of public expenditure on law enforcement and security, and indirectly influence public policy in
key areas such as border control, customs procedures and the viability of infrastructure and transport
projects; and ultimately a reduction in poverty.
6.2 Causal Analysis
6.2.1
Policy-making and implementation
The need to respond to crises of insecurity and natural disasters and the diversion of human and financial
resources that this requires makes it difficult to commit to long term planning and the prioritization of
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both development and the institutional reforms needed to foster development. The impact of insecurity
and natural disasters, including difficulties of access, is one of the main hurdles to development.
Pakistan’s MDG Report 2010 attributes failure to achieve MDGs targets to floods of 2010 and “war on
terror” being fought in Pakistan294. The prioritization of national security strategy, including the potential
threat of conflict on the eastern borders, over developmental demands negatively impacts budgetary
allocations for institutional capacity building and development, security and state effectiveness.
These difficulties are reflected in the Bertelsmann Transformation Management Index which assesses and
compares the steering and management of development and transformation processes, and the reform
activities of political decision makers. The BTI recognizes that “Management performance may be
limited by structural constraints that do not result from the current political leadership’s actions and
cannot be overcome swiftly”295, such constraints including in the case of Pakistan extreme poverty, the
lack of an educated work force, severe infrastructural deficiencies, and natural disasters. The BTI has
given Pakistan a level difficulty rating of 8.2/10 to reflect the fact that the structural constraints on
governance are high and the problems faced due to violence.296
The ability to make and implement policy that will promote inclusive development, including the ability
to raise and manage the necessary budget allocations, is a challenge. Policy making is affected by a
number of factors; quality data, political commitment, long term planning, effective prioritization and
coordination of competing or different interests, and consensus building. Participants in the consultative
workshops agreed that challenges exist to ensure that policy making is based upon sound research and
impartial evidence and that links need to be strengthened between academic institutions and policy
formulation forums.
The government seeks to achieve political, economic and social reforms, but capacity gaps relating to the
effective implementation of reform policy need to be addressed. There was a consensus of participants in
the consultative workshops about the need to strengthen the capacity of the civil services to deliver public
goods. Implementation will require the effective use of human and financial resources at the
government’s disposal. Oxfam’s recent report on the floods highlighted the dedication and hard work of
state actors and private individuals in responding to the floods.297 The government can harness this
commitment by supporting competitive recruitment procedures. This would assist in counteracting the
marginalization298 of bureaucracy, thereby improving neutrality and effective service delivery. In terms of
financial resources assistance is needed to support a balanced state budget with transparent planning and
implementation, and a manageable level of state debt. There needs to be a balance between the
administrative expenses of service providers relative to the services offered by the State.
Measures to improve the security situation by the effective implementation of rule of law would reap
dividends in relation to the security of life, liberty and property of people and provide a better economic
and social environment. This would include measures to address capacity issues relating to the
investigation and prosecution of offences, and improve police performance and accountability. Related to
this are measures to support the separation of powers between the executive, legislative and judicial
functions of governance.299
6.2.2
Citizen Accountability
Effective formulation and implementation of policy reforms requires citizen participation. One aspect of
this is that members of the National and Provincial Assemblies and the government are held accountable
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through the ballot box. This needs regular electoral events to the national, provincial and local
government fora.
The hurdles to effective citizen accountability include high rates of illiteracy and lack of information.
Reforms may be needed to support questioning the process and quality of decision-making by elected
representatives and government officials. Decision makers are likely to be more responsive to informed
citizens. 300 Improved awareness of rights is also needed to ensure that government officials effectively
perform their duties.
6.2.2.1 Regional Cooperation
This criteria relates to the extent to which the political leadership uses the support of international partners
to implement a long-term strategy of development, the extent to which the government acts as a credible
and reliable partner in its relations with the international community, and the extent to which the political
leadership is willing to cooperate with neighbouring countries in regional and international organizations.
The evidence suggests that increased international cooperation would improve the management of
transformation processes. Performance management comparison across the region points towards the
need for more regional cooperation.301
6.3 Duty bearers and right holders
The State is the primary duty bearer and for this section as well as the previous section of this report, the
term ‘State’ encompasses many different actors including government leaders, civil servants, the police,
prison staff, and the courts. With particular relevance to the rule of law and political violence citizens
have the duty to obey the lawful orders of the state and express their dissatisfaction through established
channels of communication in a peaceful manner. Political parties also have a duty to provide leadership
in promoting a democratic culture.
From the HRBA perspective, “people are recognized as key actors in their own development, rather than
passive recipients of commodities and services.” To ensure this end result, participation of citizens should
be treated as a right both in the electoral and accountability processes. Their empowerment should be
monitored and evaluated at all stages of these processes. Then, among them, the marginalized,
disadvantaged, and excluded groups have to be given ownership of the processes with the aim to reduce
disparity.
Motivational and capacity gaps of the duty bearers need to be addressed. The human, organizational and
financial resources needed to discharge the obligations of the state are enormous. However these
challenges must not deter from embarking on comprehensive reforms undertakings in electoral processes,
accountability mechanisms, service delivery, integrity management and ensuring rule of law.
6.4 Conclusion
The indicators for political and economic transformation, voice and accountability and regulatory quality;
have shown improvements over the last few years. The indices for service delivery and regulatory quality
also compare well in the region. However all the indices generally and especially those for security,
stability, rule of law and integrity management, point towards the challenges and gaps that still need to be
overcome.
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The potential benefits of prioritizing improved service delivery are considerable; the evidence suggests
that the ability to deliver essential services, in addition to the intrinsic value of those services, may be
linked to political stability and conflict. The Peace and Conflict Instability Ledger302, which ranks States
according to their estimated risk of future instability or armed conflict, identifies five risk factors; One of
these factors is infant mortality rate which serves as a key indicator of socioeconomic well-being and “a
proxy for a country’s overall economic development, its level of advancement in social welfare policy,
and its capacity to deliver core services to the population”. The Ledger notes that research findings show
a strong relationship between high infant mortality rates and the likelihood of future instability. Given that
Pakistan has been newly classified as a high risk State by the Ledger and is in the Ledger’s top 10
countries for the largest increases in risk of instability, this link between conflict and socioeconomic
development, and the role that improving State effectiveness can play in both areas is important. This
finding is supported by the PCNA which identified poor state effectiveness as a prime reason of violence
in FATA and KP303.
The response to the 2010 floods also highlights the potential of supporting capacity building in relation to
State effectiveness to reduce the impact of disasters. The government has demonstrated its commitment to
disaster management by signing the international commitment the 2005 Hyogo Framework for Action
and creating a disaster management framework. Assistance is now needed in relation to policy
implementation and co-ordination. An elected functioning local government could also assist in relation
to relief efforts and reconstruction304.
A positive trend is the willingness of the media and an active judiciary to engage in issues of
accountability. Support relating to media strengthening, particularly in relation to responsible reporting,
and judicial strengthening, particularly in relation to decision making that respects the separation of
powers between the judiciary and executive, will promote this positive trend.
Pakistan has attained remarkable achievements in political and policy domains in last few years. Existing
policy framework and forthcoming devolution of powers and resources thorough 18th Amendment and 7th
NFC Award from Federal government to provinces and constitutional changes in the border regions of
FATA and GB are historic with far reaching impacts. After the 18th Amendment development sector lies
more with the provinces305. Given this the UN and other organizations will have to revise their modes of
intervention and review their existing capacities. Federal and provincial governments will need more
support and assistance from all UN and other stakeholders to take advantage of these constitutional
powers and develop the necessary capacity to respond to these additional responsibilities.
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7 Conclusion and Way Forward
The prevailing political and socioeconomic situation in Pakistan, though challenging, carries a
number of opportunities as well. The right choices, priorities, and strategies in priority
development issues could enable Pakistan to move forward on the path of sustainable and
equitable development.
In 2010, Pakistan’s urban population was estimated at 63.1 million. The increasing rate of urbanization
compounds the challenges of sustainable development and environment by the emergence of meta urban
regions. The planners view these regions as the future engines of growth. They propose a strategy to
improve competitiveness by expansion in urban city markets, promotion of cluster development,
improvement in urban governance, skill development and autonomous local government. However, this
strategy must avoid further increasing the urbanization growth rate and should neither be at the expense of
rural development, nor the shifting of resources towards urban centres. The urban centres need to cope
with the challenges of infrastructure, poverty, unemployment, and provision of basic services.
There is a potential of a huge demographic dividend resulting in a “rise in the rate of economic
growth due to a rising share of working age people in the population.” By 2030, Pakistan’s working
age population is expected to be around 67 percent from the current 54.9 percent: According to the
Economic Survey 2010-11, “Empirical evidence suggests that a large part of East Asia’s spectacular
economic growth derives from demographic transition, i.e. from working age population bulge because
those countries have invested in their population and converted them in highly skilled human capital. This
transition from a young to prime age population presented a demographic gift because East Asia has had
relatively fewer young population -- but in countries where an increasing share of the population is of
working age, economic growth per person tends to be highest and national saving tends to rise.”
However, it entails a risk that this fast growing young adult population unable to find productive
employment is also vulnerable to being manipulated towards social unrest and terrorism.
To take advantage of the demographic window of opportunity, economic growth needs to be translated
into poverty reduction and employment creation for all. The existence of distributional, structural, gender
and regional iniquities have retarded Pakistan’s achievement of MDG targets. The government’s fiscal
policy, especially the policy’s heavy reliance on indirect taxation, has a direct impact on market prices,
which differentially affect the poorer segments of the population.
Pakistan has already suffered badly from the war in Afghanistan and terrorism. In addition, inclusive
growth is hampered by human-made crises and natural disasters. The external supply shocks have been
particularly harsh on the poor, women, children, old people, minorities, refugees and the Internally
Displaced Persons (IDPs). Youth (ages 15-29 years) comprising 27 percent of the population in the
affected areas, have been exposed to militancy. The damage to habitat, loss of livelihoods, trauma of
displacement and disillusionment are adding to the stresses. The access of the poor to education and
health in crises-affected areas has been affected and food vulnerability has increased.
Opportunity and feasibility, radicalization, the State’s incapacity to restrain these tendencies and
deprivation are the general formative conditions creating risk of internal conflict in Pakistan. To cope
with these, trust in the State’s effectiveness needs to be restored, basic services, employment and
livelihood opportunities needs to be provided, and radicalization needs to be countered.
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Natural disasters affect and are affected by environmental conditions and climate change. Gaps in
Disaster Risk Management (DRM) have increased the risk of damage from natural disasters. The built
environment also interferes with the natural pathways of rivers and causes damage during
floods. However, the biggest single determinant of risk to vulnerable groups is their socio-economic
status, necessitating a rights based approach to recovery and reconstruction. Sharing of knowledge and
skills is required through the initiation of a regional research and development program.
Natural disasters and conflicts can quickly undermine progress in human development and, therefore, it is
important that the government has the support it needs to minimize the effects of these disasters and
crises. An encouraging finding of the HDR is that some countries have achieved improvements in health
and education even without economic growth. The report also notes that the trends conducive to
empowerment include the increases in literacy and education that have improved people’s ability to make
informed choices and hold governments accountable. The scope for empowerment and its expression
have broadened due to technology and institutions.
It is important to enable everyone to participate in providing solutions and setting the country on track to
attain MDG targets. The 80 million children and young persons under the age of 18 need investment for
their education, security and health. Similarly, women need to be engaged with issues of their local
communities and to be empowered to participate in the political process at all levels. To meet this end, a
uniform vision, institutional capacity building and ownership at the provincial level will be needed.
Without a research base and quality data, evidence-based policy-making will not be possible.
Improved tax administration to ensure increased revenue collection, more effective expenditure planning
and control, effectively addressing the energy crisis, reducing circular debt, minimizing corruption and
bureaucratic delays, combined with strengthening governance institutions are necessary steps to facilitate
necessary economic growth and progress towards achievement of MDG targets.
Pakistan has attained remarkable achievements in political and policy domains in last few years which are
also reflected in the relevant indices. Existing policy and regulatory frameworks, the implementation of
18th Amendment and 7th NFC Award and constitutional changes in the border regions of FATA and GB
are historic events with far reaching impacts. Successful implementation of the 18th Amendment and the
7th NFC Award will be critical. Corresponding reforms in the civil services and law enforcement
capacities will be a sine qua non to translate the constitutional guarantees into measurable impacts in the
life of people of Pakistan.
After the 18th Amendment the development sector lies mostly with the provinces. The transferred
subjects include Education, Health, Labor, Food and Agriculture, Environment, population, livestock and
dairy development, industries, local government and rural development, sports, textile, women’s
development, youth, natural resources, labor and manpower, social welfare, Zakat, Auqaf, tourism, print
media and cinematograph films, culture and archeology, ensuring sanctity of contracts and clarity of
property rights and levying additional taxes. The federal government is responsible for FATA, GB, and
the Islamabad Capital Territory for these subjects.
Given this, the UN and other organizations will have to review their modes of intervention and revisit
their existing capacities. Federal and provincial governments will need more support and assistance from
all UN agencies and other stakeholders to take advantage of these constitutional powers and develop the
necessary capacity to respond to these additional responsibilities. The international community and
development partners can help in filling the capacity gaps in governance to provide means to duty bearers
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in the country for honouring their commitments to right holders.
While it is clear that the State apparatus remains duty bound to fulfill its obligations to the citizenry as
rights holders, the analysis of this mutual relationship needs also to account for resourcing and capacities
on the duty bearers' side and responsibilities and attitudes on the side of rights holders. For instance,
unlike in the case of the immediate responsibility to respect, fulfill and protect civil and political rights,
many areas that come under State Effectiveness relate to economic, social and cultural rights for which
the international obligation is invariably towards "progressive realization," a subjectively-interpreted
concept that is non-justiciable. This means that the State is not duty bound to create social, cultural and
economic equality overnight, but to do so gradually as best it can within its resources. The rights holders
have a role and responsibility to ensure that the State is doing its utmost and also to support this endeavor
through their own practices.
Therefore, rights holders need to mobilize themselves to hold government authorities accountable, and in
turn they too must respect the rule of law and due process. However, rights holders do not constitute a
uniform or homogeneous group, and sub-group self-interest often dominates. The tendency to seek
preference through influential contacts is both a cause and effect of weakening the State's governance
role, and lies at the heart of differential access to services. In this sense, layers of elite capture of scarce
resources and capacities severely exacerbates problems of access for excluded and vulnerable groups at
the national, provincial, district, tehsil, union council and village levels.
The correct choices and strategies relating to priority development issues would enable Pakistan to move
forward towards sustainable and equitable development in cooperation with its neighbours and with the
support of the international community. This requires the spectrum of federal and provincial/regional
stakeholders, including civil society, media and academia, to be constructively engaged and empowered
to participate in determining the development agenda. In turn this agenda should be consonant with
Pakistan’s obligations vis-à-vis ratified international covenants and core human rights principles.
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Meta Analytic Approach to Country Analysis
9 Notes
1
Pakistan Provincial Map UNDSS 17 January 2012
Pakistan Weather Portal; http://karachimetrological.wordpress.com/2011/05/08/history-of-drought-in-pakistan-indetail/ Date accessed: 1 July 2011
3 Congressional Research Service; http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/6202.pdf
Date accessed: 1 July 2001 Page 2
4
CIA Factbook
5
Gapminder data www.gapminder.org
6
(Economic Survey 2008-9)
7
(Mamoon, S Akhtar, & Hissam, 2011) suggesting export losses of up to US$ 30 billion directly and indirectly for
the years 2006-09.
8
TradingEconomics.com
9
ibid
10
Federal Bureau of Statistics
11
The real price index is the nominal price index deflated by the WB Manufacturers Unit Based Index
12
(WFP & SDPI, 2003) and (WFP & SDPI, 2009)
13
(Azad & McElhinney, 2011)
14
ibid
15
(Kamal AR, 2002)
16
(Cardoso, 1992)
17 Source: Based on PSLM Data analyzed by Planning Commission
18
(ADB, 2011)
19
ADB simulation analysis
2
20
21
(Naveed & Islam, 2010)
Moghadam, V.M. (2005). Globalizing women: Transnational feminist networks. Baltimore, MD: The Johns
Hopkins University Press. p. 7.
See “What do we mean by ‘Feminization of Poverty’” International Poverty Centre, July 2008, No 58.
Economic Survey 2010-11, p. 162.
24
Ibid., p. 162.
25
Cited in Economic Survey 2008-9, Chapter 12, p. 193
26
Global Gender Gap Report 2011.
27
(Moghadam, 2005)
28 See http://treaties.un.org/Pages/Treaties.aspx?id=4&subid=A&lang=en for a list of human rights conventions that
Pakistan has ratified.
29
Source: State Bank of Pakistan, Economic Data; Domestic Debt (outstanding)
30
Pakistan: Fiscal Policy Statement 2010-11, p. 34
31
State Bank of Pakistan; Monetary Aggregates http://www.sbp.org.pk/ecodata/M3.pdf
32
This was GDP at current factor cost as reported in Ministry of Finance, Economic Advisor’s Wing. 2010.
Pakistan Economic Survey, Statistical Appendix, Table 1.5.
33
Sustainable Policy Development Institute, Examining the Dimensions, Scale and Dynamics of the Illegal
Economy: A Study of Pakistan in the Region, Dec 2011. P. xiii.
34
(World Economic Forum, 2011a)
35
(World Economic Forum, 2011a)
36
Source: CIA World Factbook 2009
22
23
126
127
Meta Analytic Approach to Country Analysis
37
TradingEconomics.com
(Kugelman & Hathaway, 2011)
39
(GOP, 2011a)
40
(Nayab, 2006)
38
41
42
(GOP, 2011b)
(GOP, 2011b)
43
(Haider, 2006)
Data taken from Competitiveness Support Fund, 2011.
45
Ibid.
46
Ibid., p. 23
47
Over the past six decades, Pakistan’s average economic growth rate was higher than the average growth rate of the
world economy. The overall economic performance, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), “for the
period 1961–1990 was respectable … the average growth rate during the 1960s was 6.8 percent per annum,
dropping lower than 5 percent in the 1970s and then climbing to 6.5 percent in the 1980s.”
Sustained periods of economic growth, however, have not always translated into poverty reduction. According to
ADB, “Periods of slow growth (the 1970s and 1990s) have alternated with periods of high growth (the 1960s and
1980s). Although the incidence of poverty has tended to decline most when the economic growth rate was high and
increased when the growth rate was low, it has also declined during period of slow growth (e.g., in the 1970s) and
increased during periods of high growth (the 1960s).”18
48
See (Kakwani & Pernia, 2000)
49
(Gazdar, 2009)
50
(Easterly, 2001)
51
(Acemoglu, Johnson, & Robinson, 2005)
52
(North, 1990)
53
(Acemoglu et al., 2005)
54
(Rodrik, 2006)
55
Explanatory Memorandum on Federal Receipts 2011-12
56
http://www.fao.org/ag/agp/greenercities/en/whyuph/foodsecurity.html Date accessed 2 July 2011
57
WFP-VAM analysis
58
http://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Rent+seeking Date accessed: 2 July 2011
59
http://www.pakissan.com/english/news/newsDetail.php?newsid=24200 Date accessed 2 July 2011
60
http://www.brecorder.com/epaper/br_259964_956.html?title=Commodity%20operations:%20govt%20making%20
a%20big%20mistake Date accessed: 2 July 2011
61
Among others, the competition commission has found the Sugar Industry, Pakistan Steel, the Banks Association,
and the Cement Manufacturers, engaged in collusive behaviour and in breach of several provisions of law.
62
(World Bank, 2005)
63
(Gazdar, 2009)
64
(Hussain, 1993)
65
(Sajjad Akhtar, 2008)
66
(Gazdar, 2009)
67
(Gazdar, 2009)
68
(Ahmed, 2008)
69
ibid
70
An important consideration here is infrastructural under development, particularly power shortages, also roads and
telecommunications. Equally important are educational policies which lead to human capital formation and a healthy
population. These factors are addressed elsewhere in the report, including in the section on human development.
44
127
128
Meta Analytic Approach to Country Analysis
It should be noted, however, that the NGF appears “gender blind” and has little to say about the need to address
both legal and socio-cultural differentiation on the basis of sex that hinder women’s access to jobs and
entrepreneurship.
72
Source: (World Economic Forum, 2011b)
73
(GOP, 2011a)
71
74(USAID,
75
2007)
IEA Analysis, Income statistics from World Bank Indicators, 2001
76
(Environment, Unit, & Region, 2006)
ibid
78
(A. A. Malik, Amir, Ramay, & Ahmad, 2011)
79
ibid
80
http://www.pcrwr.gov.pk/Journals/Vol.no.10(1)/11-22%20Estimation%20of%20Soil%20Erosion..GIS-%20Nasir,Uchida%20&%20Ashraf.pdf
81
(Shah & Arshad, 2006)
82
ibid
77
83
(Khaskheli. M.A, 2011)
(IGI Securities, 2007)
85(Khan, Iqbal, And, & Soomro, 2002)
86 ibid
87 ibid
88 WWF 2007
89 ibid
90 Feedback from Consultative Workshop at Quetta
91 Source: (S Alam, A Fatima, & S. Butt., 2007)
84
92
(A. A. Malik et al., 2011)
(GOP, 2010a)
94
(IPCC, 2007)
93
(ADB, 2010a)
CIA World Factbook, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html
97 (ADB, 2010a)
98(IPS, 2009a)
99 ibid
100 Pakistan Power Sector Reforms Presentation, Government of Pakistan, September 27, 2010
101(GOP, 2011a)
102 http://www.enercon.gov.pk Accessed on August 19, 2011
103 (ADB, 2010a)
95
96
104
Source: Based on “Integrated Energy Plan 2009-2022”, Economic Advisory Council, March (Updated for USA)
As per the International Energy Agency's 2009 report (data for 2007), Pakistan's coal-related CO2 emissions of 21.1
million tons are low compared to the Republic of Korea's (210), Australia's (223), South Africa's (283), Japan's (445),
India's (895), the United States' (2115), and the People's Republic of China's (5003).
106 (M. Shaikh, 2010) “(Yazdanie, 2010), Mashael Yazdanie June 2, 2010 Accessed on August 19, 2011
107 (M. Shaikh, 2010)
108 (ADB, 2010a)
105
109
(A. A. Malik et al., 2011)
http://www.wwfpak.org/forests.php
111
http://www.wwfpak.org/pdf/forest_mangrove_rcpakistan.pdf
112
http://www.wwfpak.org/pdf/forest_mangrove_rcpakistan.pdf
110
(ADB, 2010a)
(IPS, 2009b)
115 Islamic Republic of Pakistan: Rental Power Review, Asian Development Bank, January, 2010
113
114
128
129
Meta Analytic Approach to Country Analysis
(IPS, 2009b)
(ADB, 2010a)
118 ibid
116
117
119
CESR
(A. A. Malik et al., 2011)
121
http://hurilink.org/tools/Integrating_HRs_into_Energy_and_Environment_Programming.pdf
122
(A. A. Malik et al., 2011)
123 (K. Mumtaz, Iftikhar, & Noshirwani, 2007)
124 (GOP, 2010a)
125
The PCNA characterizes the situation in FATA and KP as a “Crisis”. The same terminology has been adopted in
this document. For the situation in Balochistan and elsewhere, the term conflict has been used.
126
(Rana, 2009)
127 Violence and terrorism in general and across the whole country will be discussed in another section of the report.
128Numbers are for the period 2005 - August 2010, Numbers for FATA vary due to ongoing operations, Source:
FATA Sectt, KP police, satp.org
129
(FDMA, 2011)
130 For details see http://www.dawn.com/2011/06/29/settlers-caught-in-crossfire-2.html Last accessed on 20/7/2011
131
(The News [Islamabad], September 19, 2008).
132
(UNHCR, 2010) p. 15
133
Ibid., p.18
134
Cabinet Division: NODMC Secretariat, Planning Commission’s Report dated 15 th December 2010)
135
(UNOCHA, 2011)
136 (Azad & McElhinney, 2011)
137
http://pakistanwetlands.org/MCWC%20Assessment-final.pdf
138 Source: Adapted from individual Sector Reports and the final report of (GOP, 2010b). The situation is presented
as it stood June 2010
139 This includes victims of bomb blasts, bombings, torture, and killing by militants.
140 (A. Khan, 2009)
141 Cited in Oxfam (2011)
142Updated figures for KP were reported to the KP assembly in response to a parliamentary question in February
2011 which shows that in KP 710 schools have been destroyed or damaged in 2009 and 2010. For details please see
120
http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=30044&Cat=2.
143
(UNESCO, 2010)
ibid
145
http://www.who.int/hac/crises/pak/highlights/september2010/en/index.html
144
146
Ibid
147
(HRCP, 2011)
148 For details please read http://www.dawn.com/2011/06/17/ruling-class-accused-of-treating-baloch-as-others.html. Last
accessed on 20/07/2011
149 For example, the rights of legal representation and appeal before the courts.
150 For example, freedom of association
151
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ae400046-ab70-11df-abee-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1V6NoEJra
152(Collier & Hoeffler, 2004);(Fearon & Laitin, 2003).
153 Mention of this factor is made in Aristotle’s Politics. The contemporary classic on the subject is (Gurr, 1970).
154 (GOP, 2010b)
155 (Korpi, 1974)
156 (Gurr, 1997)
157(Abdullah,
2010)
129
130
Meta Analytic Approach to Country Analysis
158
www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/national/progress/reports
For
a
discussion about
climate
change
and
its
159
role
in
floods
please
refer
to
http://weather.calendarlive.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1576&tstamp=
160
Flood Inquiry Commission 2010. Appointed by Supreme Court of Pakistan on the causes of major breaches of bu
nds in River Indus during the flood 2010
161
(Oxley, 2010) Available at http://duryognivaran.org/documents/Pakistan_Floods-Marcus%20Oxley.pdf
162
http://legacy.wilsoncenter.org/topics/pubs/ASIA_090422_Running%20on%20Empty_web.pdf
163 UNICEF Estimates
164Flood Inquiry Commission 2010. Appointed by Supreme Court of Pakistan on the causes of major breaches of bu
nds in River Indus during the flood 2010
165 (Azad & McElhinney, 2011)
166An approach also stressed in (WB & ADB, 2010)
167
http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=255360&Cat=3&dt=8/8/2010
168
(UNDP, 2010)
169
(UNDP, 2011)
170
See footnote 183 for source.
171(UNDP, 2005)
172(UNDP, 2010)
173 (UNICEF, 2011)
174(IISA, 2002)
175(Nayab, 2006)
176 (Arif, 2004)
177 (GOP, 2011a), (GOP, 2011c)
178(UNDP, 2008)
179(Kausar & R. Qureshi, 2005)
180(GOP, 2010c)
181 (GOP, 2008a)
182 (UNICEF, 2008)
183 (GOP, 2008a), (GOP, 2008b)
184
http://www.gcappakistan.net/Downloads/MDG%20Book.pdf Civil Society Perspective on Pakistan Millennium
Development Goals Report 2010, p. 5. These statistics are, however, contested by other sources, who find the
“effective coverage” of LHWs to be significantly less.
185
(UNGASS Report, 2011)
186
Pakistan National AIDS Control Programme (2010) UNGASS Pakistan Report
187
(WHO/UNICEF/UNAIDS 2010)
188
(UNAIDS 2011)
189 (GOP, 2011d) retrieved 29 June 2011
190
(WHO, 2010)
191(Ghaffar & Kazi, 2000)
192(Khowaja, 2009)
193 (N. Khan & B. Shah, 2007)
194(B. T. Shaikh & Hatcher, 2005)
195(Khalid, 2009)
196(Garwood P., 2006)
197(Rizvi N. & Nishtar S., 2008)
198(WHO, 2008)
199(Butta & Memom, 2008)
130
131
Meta Analytic Approach to Country Analysis
200
(NCSW, 2009)
(Karmaliani & Bann, 2006)
202(Karmaliani & Asad, 2009)
203(Rahman & J Bunn, 2007)
204(Rizvi N. & Nishtar S., 2008)
205(Lawn & Cousens, 2005)
206(Butta & Memom, 2008)
207 (GOP, 2010c),
208 (GOP, 2011e),(GOP, 2011c)
209(GOP, 2005)
210 (GOP, 2011f)
211(UNESCO, 2009)
212 (GOP, 2009)Sources: Pakistan Integrated Household Survey (PIHS) 1990-91, 2001-02; Pakistan Social and
Living Standard Measurement and National Education Management Information Systems (NEMIS), Ministry of
Education (whole series).
213PSLM 2008-09
214PIHS 2001-02, PSLM 2004-05, 2006-07, 2007-08 and 2008-09
215(GOP, 2009)
216NEMIS 2008‐09 AEPAM, Ministry of Education, Islamabad
217 ibid
218(GOP, 2007a)
219(GOP, 2003)
220(Siddiqui N. & A. Khan, 2007)
221
Access here refers to physical, geographical, financial and socio-cultural dimensions
222(Loevinsohn, B, 2009)
223(Gadit, 2007)
224 (A. Malik & Hill, 2009)
225(Nisar & Amjad, 2007)
226(Z. Mumtaz & Salway, 2007)
227(Siddiqui & A. A. Keilmann, 2001)
228(B. T. Shaikh & Hatcher, 2005)
229(GOP, 2007b)
230(GOP, 2011e)
231 International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (IPCCR)
232 Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women
233Freedom of Expression chapter of Part III Fundamental Freedoms (HRCP, 2010a)
234 (HRCP, 2010a)
235 Summary record of 1444 th and 1445th meetings held 28 September 2009; CRC/C/SR. 1444 and CRC/C/SR.1445
236 (Shaheed.F., 2010), (HRCP, 2010a),(SDPI, 2008).
237 Table 4 Gender Inequality Index, Human Development Report 2011
238 Ministry of Labour & Manpower (2009) Pakistan Institute of Labour Education and Research reported that in
2008 out of a total labour force of over 50 million only 6.62 million benefited from social protection schemes in
2008.
239 (HRCP, 2010a) Women in Parliament section in “Part IV: Democratic Development”
240Internal Displacement section of chapter on Women in “Part V: Rights of the disadvantaged” in (HRCP, 2010a)
241 (HRCP, 2010a)
242
(UNRC, 2009)
243 Street children section of chapter on Children in “Part V: Rights of the disadvantaged” in (HRCP, 2010a)
201
131
132
Meta Analytic Approach to Country Analysis
244
(UNRC, 2009)
(Ferris & Winthrop, 2010)
246 (HRCP, 2010b)
247 Labour and Freedom of Association chapters of (HRCP, 2010a)
248
See, for instance, http://www.tbl.com.pk/the-menace-of-bonded-labour-in-pakistans-agricultural-sector/ which
reports that out of an estimated 1.7 million bonded labour in Pakistan, the majority (1.2 million) is in the agricultural
sector in Sindh.
249
SOURCE: (UNHCR, 2010) p.20
250
SOURCE: (UNHCR, 2010) p.22
251 Freedom of Thought, Conscience and Religion chapter of Part III Fundamental Freedoms in (HRCP, 2010a)
252 UN Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination Summary records of the 1910 th and 1911th meetings
of, respectively, 19 and 20 February 2009, CERD/C/SR.1910 and CERD/C/SR.1911
253 (Jinnah Institute, 2011)
254(ICG, 2010a)
255
"Fafen Parliament Monitor " Annual Performance Appraisal of the 13th National Assembly (March 2009 to
April 2010)" The report is available at http://www.fafen.org/site/v4/admin/contents/PDF/504_798.pdf
256 The Employment and Service Conditions Act 2009 which would prohibit the employment of a child below the
age of 14 is still in draft form. The Employment of Children Act of 1991 and the Employment of Children Rules of
1995 do not comply with Article 3(1) of the Convention in that the Convention sets as 18 the minimum age for
hazardous work whereas the domestic legislation prohibits it only in respect of those under 14.
257 Ability of the state to effectively develop and implement sound policies, WB, Worldwide Governance
Indicators http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/sc_chart.asp, accessed 27 July 2011
258Transformation
Index
2010,
Bertelsmann
Stiftung
http://www.bertelsmann-transformationindex.de/fileadmin/pdf/Anlagen_BTI_2010/BTI_2010__Ranking_Table_E_web.pdf , accessed 27 July 2011. With a goal
of constitutional democracy and a socially responsible market economy, the BTI is an international ranking of
128 developing and transition countries which provide comparison of the political and economic status of
each country including an assessment of the political management performance of relevant actors.
259(ICG, 2011)
260 (Ahmed, 2008)
261 (Husnain, 2005)
245
262
263
(World Bank Governance Indicator) Regional Trends
ibid
It is defined as “capturing perceptions of the quality of public services, the quality of the civil service and
the degree of its independence from political pressures, the quality of policy formulation and implementation,
and the credibility of the government's commitment to such policies”. Worldwide Governance Indicators
http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/sc_chart.asp, accessed 27 July 2011
265 Worldwide Governance Indicators http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/sc_chart.asp , accessed 27 July
2011
266 For the current levels of user satisfaction with these services, please refer to United Nations Development
Programme (UNDP) and DTCE. 2010. Social Audit of Local Governance and Delivery of Public Services.
Islamabad
267
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and Devolution Trust for Community empowerment
2010. Social Audit Local Governance and delivery of Public Services, Islamabad.
264
268
The social audit differentiates among four main categories of services, Basic services, Health, Education and Police & Courts.
Under basic services, it lists roads, sewerage and sanitation, garbage and disposal, public transport and water supply as services
provided by Tehsils (units of local government within a district except a few cases where districts & tehsils coincide);
Agricultural services provided by districts; and electricity and gas services provided by the federal government.
132
133
Meta Analytic Approach to Country Analysis
(IPS, 2011) , http://ippbnu.org/publications.php , Accessed on July 28,2011
(Husssain, 2008)
271(ADB, 2010b)
272 This dimension of governance is defined by the WGI as “capturing perceptions of the likelihood that the
government will be destabilized or overthrown by unconstitutional or violent means, including
politically‐motivated violence and terrorism”. WGI
273 Worldwide Governance Indicators http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/sc_chart.asp , accessed 27 July
2011
274 (Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies, 2011)
275 Have a look at ICG FATA report for geographical reach of police
276 (UNODC, 2009)
277 ibid
278 Survey conducted by the Pew Global Attitudes Project ‘Growing Concerns about Extremism, Continuing
Discontent with U.S.’, 13 August 2009. ‘Crime’ tops the list of problems Pakistanis face.
279 Administration of Justice and Enforcement of Law chapters in (HRCP, 2010a)
280 The WGI rule of law dimension of governance is defined as “capturing perceptions of the extent to which
agents have confidence in and abide by the rules of society, and in particular the quality of contract
enforcement, property rights, the police, and the courts, as well as the likelihood of crime and violence”.
269
270
281
The WGI ranking shows a sharp decline from the 31.4th percentile in 1996 to the 19th in 2007 with a
similar ranking in 2009. According to the BTI, Pakistan’s rule of law score dropped from 4/10 in 2008 to
3.3/10 in 2010. This indicates that the decline in the legal and law enforcement systems predates the more
recent rise in insecurity.
USAID reports, including (USAID, 2008).
(UNODC, 2009) and other reports of UNODC on the subject provide valuable information.
284 My land, my right, 149 Oxfam briefing paper, June 2, 2011, www.oxfam.org “The government of Pakistan
needs to change the way it approaches land issues to ensure comprehensive land rights for poor farmers,
especially women, across the country. Current recovery and reconstruction plans by the Pakistani
government and the international donor community, including the World Bank (WB) and the Asian
Development Bank (ADB) as well as the government of Pakistan inadequate mention of land issues. There are
no plans to conduct a comprehensive review of land issues and no clear strategy or programs that address
land inequality issues for poor and landless women and men”.
285 (USAID, 2008)
286
By WBI it is defined as “capturing perceptions of the ability of the government to formulate and implement
282
283
sound policies and regulations that permit and promote private sector development”
287
(World Bank Governance Indicators) Regional Trend
288
ibid
The WB’s Doing Business Index is based on the following sub indicators: starting a business, dealing with
construction permits, employing workers, registering property, getting credit, protecting investors, paying taxes,
trading across borders, enforcing contracts, and closing a business.
290 These include the WGI’s Control of corruption index and Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions
Index (CPI) and Global Corruption Barometer (GCB). The WGI corruption dimension of governance is defined
as “capturing perceptions of the extent to which public power is exercised for private gain, including both
petty and grand forms of corruption, as well as "capture" of the state by elites and private interests”.
291 The 2010 corruption perceptions survey by Transparency International reported that people considered
the police and power supply companies to be the most corrupt services followed by land administration,
education, local government, and the judiciary
289
133
134
Meta Analytic Approach to Country Analysis
Worldwide Governance Indicators http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/sc_chart.asp, accessed 27 July
2011
293 (ICG, 2010b)
294 (GOP, 2010d)
295 page 36, BTI 2010 Manual for Country Assessment
296 This is the statement in the BTI 2010 Manual for Country Assessment (page 37) that would warrant a
score of 6 to 8
297 (Azad & McElhinney, 2011)
298 Influx of retired and serving military officers in civil services by Z.A. Bhutto, Zia ul Haq and lately by Pervez
Musharraf, Reforming Pakistan’s civil Service, Crisis Group Asia Report No. 185, February 16,2010
299 (Askari, 2006)
300 (Husnain, 2005)
301 The Management Index ranking fell from 90 th in 2008 to 112/128 countries in Pakistan. In 2010 Nepal had
a level of difficulty of 7.9 and an MI ranking of 93/128. Afghanistan had a level of difficulty rating of 9.8 and an
MI ranking of 105/128.
302 Peace and Conflict 2010 Executive Summary, Center for International Development and Conflict
Management at the University of Maryland, J. Joseph Hewitt, Jonathan Wilkenfeld, and Ted Robert Gurr. PCIL
identifies five risk factors; countries with the poorest performance on these factors are at the greatest risk for
instability in the near-term. One of these factors is infant mortality rate which serve as a key indicator of
socioeconomic well-being and “a proxy for a country’s overall economic development, its level of
advancement in social welfare policy, and its capacity to deliver core services to the population”302. The
Ledger notes that research findings show a strong relationship between high infant mortality rates and the
likelihood of future instability, although the link is not certain; many countries with high infant mortality
rates such as Saudi Arabia have not experienced instability and some with a low rate, such as Israel, do.
303(GOP, 2010b)
304 Chapter 3 “Everyone and no one in control” in (Azad & McElhinney, 2011)
305 Subjects like Education, Health, Labor, Food and Agriculture, Environment, population, livestock and dairy
development, industries, local government and rural development, sports, textile, women development,
youth, natural resources, labor and manpower, social welfare, Zakat, Auqaf, tourism, print media and
cinematograph films, culture and archeology, ensure sanctity of contracts and clarity of property rights and
levying additional taxes which are no more with Federal government.
292
134