Department of Economics University of California, Berkeley Problem Set #1 Fall 2014 Economics 1 Page 1 of 8 PROBLEM SET #1 Suggested Solutions 1. Supply and Demand (2 points total; 1 point each) For each of the events described below, sketch a supply and demand graph that illustrates the event. Be sure to properly label all curves and relevant points in your graph. In the area to the left of your graph, explain why you think your graph is correct. In that area, also answer the questions asked. a. Spaghetti sauce sold in grocery stores: The economic recovery increases incomes of low and middle-income families. What is the effect on the price of spaghetti sauce? On the quantity of spaghetti sauce sold? For all supply/demand questions like this, we assume that all other things – aside from what is specified in the question – stay the same (that is, we make the “ceteris paribus” assumption). Do not add events to the question that are not there. Assume all other factors are held constant. The question asks about the supply and demand for spaghetti sauce sold in grocery stores. The first step is drawing the initial equilibrium (E) at P1 and Q1. The second step: How do we capture the event? The event is an increase in income. To determine the effect of income on spaghetti sauce sold in grocery stores, we first need to specify whether spaghetti sauce sold in grocery stores is a normal or an inferior good. For a normal good, an increase in income results in an increase in demand. For an inferior good, an increase in income results in a decrease in demand. You could make either assumption – assume spaghetti sauce sold in grocery stores is a normal good OR assume spaghetti sauce sold in grocery stores is an inferior good – but you have to make an explicit assumption. To make the assumption “explicit” means communicating the assumption: writing it down. Had this been an exam question, you could not have received full credit for your answer if you hadn’t explicitly recognized that the answer depended upon whether spaghetti sauce sold in grocery stores is a normal or an inferior good. If you assumed spaghetti sauce is a normal good, then the increase in income causes an increase in the demand for spaghetti sauce. Remember that the demand curve shows how much of a good will be purchased at any given price. At every possible price, there is more spaghetti sauce demanded because of the increased income. When there is an increase in demand, the demand curve shifts to the right. The third step: What is the effect on price and quantity? The shift to the right of demand (that is, an increase in the quantity demanded at every possible price), results in an increase in the price and an increase in the quantity sold at equilibrium. The graph showing the market equilibrium before and after the shift illustrates why this is the case. The demand curve shifts to the right, changing the equilibrium point from E1 to E2, increasing the equilibrium price from P1 to P2, and increasing the equilibrium quantity from Q1 to Q2. Note that the supply curve has not moved; it is only the quantity supplied that rises. If you assumed spaghetti sauce is an inferior good, then the increase in income causes a decrease in the demand for spaghetti sauce. Remember that the demand curve shows how much of a good will be purchased at any given price. At every possible price, there is less spaghetti sauce demanded because of the increased income. When there is a decrease in demand, the demand curve shifts to the left. The third step: What is the effect on price and quantity? The shift to the left of demand (that is, a decrease in the quantity demanded at every possible price), results in a decrease in the price and a decrease in the quantity sold at equilibrium. The graph showing the market equilibrium before and after the shift illustrates why this is the case. The demand curve shifts to the left, changing the equilibrium point from E1 to E2, decreasing the equilibrium price from P1 to P2, and decreasing the equilibrium quantity from Q1 to Q2. Note that the supply curve has not moved; it is only the quantity supplied that rises. The graph is at the top right of the next page. The graph is at the top left of the next page. Department of Economics University of California, Berkeley Problem Set #1 Fall 2014 Economics 1 Page 2 of 8 For news stories related to this question, you can google “pasta sauce recession.” This article implies sauce is an inferior good: http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10000872396390444900304577579071446652942; this one implies sauce is a normal good: http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-sat-trading-downjan24-story.html b. Fresh fruit: Drought and the effects of climate change decrease the fruit harvest. At the same time, a successful antiobesity campaign encourages people to increase their consumption of fresh fruit. What is the effect on the price of fresh fruit? On the quantity of fruit sold? The question asks about the supply and demand for fresh fruit. The first step is drawing the initial equilibrium (E1) at P1 and Q1. The second step: how do we capture the event? Notice that there are two events in this question. Other than these two specified events, we assume all else is constant. That is, we invoke the ceteris paribus assumption. Drought and the effects of climate change decrease the fruit harvest. This is a decrease in the productivity of land – one of the factors that shift the supply curve. There is a decrease in the supply of fresh fruit. At every possible price of fresh fruit, there is less fresh fruit offered for sale due to the decreased harvest. The quantity supplied decreases at each and every possible price. The entire supply curve shifts to the left. At the same time, a successful anti-obesity campaign encourages people to increase their consumption of fresh fruit. A successful campaign generates a change in preferences, one of the factors that shift demand. The quantity demanded of fresh fruit will increase at every price. There is an increase in the demand for fresh fruit which is shown by shifting the demand curve to the right. The third step: what is the effect on price and quantity? The shift to the left of supply (that is, a decrease in the quantity supplied at every possible price), results in an increase in the price and a decrease in the quantity sold at equilibrium. The shift to the right of demand (an increase in the quantity demanded at every possible price), results in an increase in price and an increase in the quantity sold. Department of Economics University of California, Berkeley Problem Set #1 Fall 2014 Economics 1 Page 3 of 8 So drought puts downward pressure on the quantity but the anti-obesity campaign puts upward pressure on the quantity. What is the net effect on quantity? It depends. (You’ll find “it depends” is often the answer in economics. It’s never a sufficient answer, though. We need to know on what “it depends.”) The net effect on quantity depends on which shift is larger: the increase in demand or the decrease in supply. If you drew the shifts the same size, then you had no effect on quantity. If you shifted demand more than you shifted supply, quantity Q2 is more than quantity Q1. If you shifted supply more than you shifted demand, Q2 is less than Q1. The three graphs illustrates why this is the case. The supply curve shifts to the left and the demand curve shifts to the right changing the equilibrium point from E1 to E2. In all cases, equilibrium price decreases from P1 to P2. The effect on quantity depends upon which curve shifts more: neither (quantity unchanged), demand (quantity rises), or supply (quantity falls). 2. (4 points total) Production Possibilities Frontier, Growth, and Gains from Trade Suppose the data describe the current production possibilities for an economy that produces two goods: household goods and infrastructure (roads, bridges, communications networks, and so on). Producing more infrastructure could improve productivity a lot in the household goods sector and a little in the infrastructure sector. But producing more household goods has no effect on productivity in either sector. Quantities that can be produced per month with the currently available resources household goods infrastructure Label point a. 0 100 A 100 90 B 200 75 C (½ point) Does this economy exhibit increasing opportunity costs? 300 50 D Yes 350 30 E No 400 0 F (Circle one) Department of Economics University of California, Berkeley Problem Set #1 Fall 2014 Economics 1 Page 4 of 8 Yes, this economy exhibits increasing opportunity costs. Increasing household goods production from 100 to 200 units (from B to C) requires decreasing infrastructure production from 90 to 75 units, a drop of 15 units of infrastructure. But increasing household goods production by another 100 units (from 200 to 300, from C to D) requires decreasing infrastructure production from 75 to 50 units, a drop of 25 units of infrastructure. For a constant increase in household goods, there is an ever-increasing cost in terms of the amount of infrastructure that cannot be produced with the available resources. B. (½ point) Plot the PPF. Put infrastructure on the vertical axis; household goods on the horizontal axis. Label the points. Be sure each axis is to scale (for instance, if 100 = ½", don’t also let 100 = 1/4" or 3/4" along the same axis). c. (1 point) Suppose the economy wanted to consume 300 units of household goods and 80 units of infrastructure per month (label it G). What is a combination of output chosen from A F that would quickly move the economy to G? Explain your answer. The more infrastructure the economy produces, the faster it will grow. So combinations A, B, C are going to produce faster growth than combinations D, E, F. The question underscores the importance of reading the question prompt carefully. The key sentences for this part are highlighted above in yellow: Producing more infrastructure could improve productivity a lot in the household goods sector and a little in the infrastructure sector. But producing more household goods has no effect on productivity in either sector. That is: producing more roads, bridges, and so on makes it possible to produce a lot more household goods with the same quantity of resources (capital, land and labor) than was possible with fewer roads, bridges, and so on. This is an example of asymmetric growth. The increased production of infrastructure benefits the household goods sector more than it benefits the infrastructure sector. Roads and bridges make it possible to transport inputs to the production process and finished goods more cheaply (faster, and at lower cost), increasing productivity in the household goods sector a lot. But more roads and bridges have only a small effect on the efficiency of production of yet more roads and bridges, which is why productivity in the infrastructure sector improves only a little. When more infrastructure is produced, there is a big increase in productivity in the household goods sector and a small increase in productivity in the infrastructure sector. The maximum amount of infrastructure the economy could produce if all resources were devoted to infrastructure production increases a little bit. That means the end point on the vertical axis moves up a little. The maximum amount of household goods the economy could produce if all resources were devoted to household good production increases a lot. That means the end point on the horizontal axis moves a lot to the right. We don’t know the exact effect on productivity so we just sketch in a new production possibilities frontier. It will have an endpoint a bit higher on the vertical (infrastructure) axis and a lot further out on the horizontal (household goods) axis. Department of Economics University of California, Berkeley Problem Set #1 d. Fall 2014 Economics 1 Page 5 of 8 (1 point) Again suppose the economy wanted to consume 300 units of household goods and 80 units of infrastructure per month (label it G). The economy is currently at point C. Calculate the economy’s opportunity cost (OC) of increasing production of household goods. This economy decides it wants to trade, purchasing household goods. What can you say about a potential trading partner’s opportunity cost of producing household goods? Explain your answer. The economy is at C, producing 200 household goods and 75 units of infrastructure. If the economy increases production of household goods it will move toward point D. An increase of 100 units of household goods “costs” 75-50 = 25 units of infrastructure. That’s the opportunity cost of 100 more units of household goods. Divide by 100 to get the opportunity cost of 1 more unit of household goods: 25/100 = 0.25. When moving from C to D, each additional unit of household goods has an opportunity cost of 0.25 units of infrastructure. If the economy decides it wants to trade for household goods, it only makes sense to trade with an economy that has a lower opportunity cost of producing household goods. So any potential trading partner’s opportunity cost of increasing household goods must be less than 0.25 units of infrastructure. e. (1 point) Bridges to Prosperity arrives in this economy and builds bridges as described in the reader. Draw a PPF below that illustrates the effect of the work of Bridges to Prosperity on this economy. On the right, explain why you drew your graph the way you did. Bridges to Prosperity (B2P) builds bridges with local materials and labor, but with donated expertise. This is an example of aid provided to a country, which allows consumption of a combination of output outside of the PPF. There is no shift of the PPF. The available resources have not increased. The productivity has not increased. Instead this is an example of how aid (a gift from outside the economy) increases the consumption possibilities beyond what an economy can produce. If the economy wants to consume 300 units of household goods and 80 units of infrastructure – a combination beyond its PPF – this could be accomplished with aid. If B2P provides 30 units of infrastructure, then the economy only needs to produce 50 units of infrastructure. That will provide a total of 80units of infrastructure: 30 from aid + 50 from domestic production. The remaining resources can be allocated to the production of household goods. Using the table in the question’s prompt we see that if the economy is producing 50 units of infrastructure, it can use the rest of its resources to produce 300 units of household goods. 3. Effect of a tax (2 points total) About 15 billion gallons of soda (equivalent to 120 billion 16-oz bottles of soda) are sold in the U.S. each year – about 45 gallons of soda per year for each man, woman, and child in the U.S. At about 1,500 calories per gallon, is it any wonder we have an obesity epidemic? One proposal for fighting obesity by lowering soda consumption is to implement a soda tax of 1¢ per ounce. So a typical 16 oz. bottle of Coke would have a 16¢ tax added to it. The tax would be collected by the seller who would remit it to the government. a. (½ point) Suppose the graph at the right depicts the market for 16 oz. bottles of soda before the tax increase. On the graph, show the effect of the additional 1¢/ounce tax. What is the new equilibrium price paid per 16 oz. bottle and new equilibrium quantity of 16 oz. bottles of soda consumed? Department of Economics University of California, Berkeley Problem Set #1 New price = about $1.55 per bottle Fall 2014 Economics 1 Page 6 of 8 New quantity = about 113 billion bottles of soda per year The tax can be thought of as an increase in the cost of producing bottled soda. The tax increases the cost of selling a single bottle by 16 cents. Hence, the graph shows a second supply curve S2 that is $0.16 higher than the previous supply curve S0 at any quantity of bottled soda sold. This is the same as an inward, or leftward, shift of the supply curve. Note that the suppliers do not keep the additional $0.16 per bottle; they immediately remit the $0.16 to the government. The producers will retain the price consumers pay, minus $0.16, per bottled soda. The initial equilibrium at point A is at a price of $1.50 per bottled soda and quantity sold of 120 billion bottled soda sold per year. The new equilibrium point occurs at point B, where S2 crosses the demand curve, D. Looking at the graph, this point is located where the price paid per bottled soda is about $1.55 and the quantity sold is approximately 113 million bottled sodas per year. The drop in quantity demanded is due to the higher price: $1.55 > $1.50. You aren’t expected to do the math to solve for the exact new equilibrium, but if you did . . . you probably used the pointslope formula to come up with an equation for the demand curve and a separate equation for the supply curve. Then the next step was to solve this system of two equations with two unknowns. The precise results are p = 1.5533 and q = 113.33. Again, listen up, you were not expected to solve for the exact new equilibrium, just to look at your graph and estimate p & q. b. (½ point) On your graph, use shading to depict the old and new amounts of consumer surplus, and the old and new amounts of producer surplus. It would have been better if the graph had continued all the way to a quantity of 0 rather than being cut off at 100. The ideas behind the shading are all the same, but the shading should continue all the way to quantity of 0. If you caught that, bravo! If you didn’t, no worries. What matters is that you get the basic ideas for consumer & producer surplus. Consumer surplus is the “I got a deal!” feeling that consumers have when they pay a price that is less than the maximum they are willing to pay. Economists put a dollar value on that consumer surplus. If I pay $1.50 for something I was willing to pay $1.65 for, I receive $0.15 (15 cents) of consumer surplus. Department of Economics University of California, Berkeley Problem Set #1 Fall 2014 Economics 1 Page 7 of 8 On a graph, the consumer surplus for the economy as a whole is the area below the demand curve and above the price. (Calculus geeks are thinking “Oh, cool, integration.” Yes, in Econ 100A and 101A. For now, just a shaded area on a graph.) The original CS is the yellow triangle below the demand curve and above the price $1.50. Once the price increases, consumer surplus declines. Some people are no longer buying the item because the maximum price they were willing to pay is less than $1.55, and so they are receiving no CS whatsoever from bottled soda. The others are all now paying a higher price: $1.55 instead of the original price of $1.50. Their willingness to pay hasn’t changed; the demand curve hasn’t shifted. If I now pay $1.55 for something I was willing to pay $1.65 for, I receive $0.10 (10 cents) of consumer surplus. So those buyers who were willing to pay at least $1.55 are still buying soda, but are receiving less consumer surplus when they do so. On a graph, the new consumer surplus is the light yellow triangle with vertical hash marks: a triangle below the demand curve and above the new price, $1.55. Producer surplus is the “I made a killing!” feeling that seller get when they sell something at a price that is above the minimum they were willing to accept. Economists put a dollar value on that producer surplus. If someone pays $1.50 for something that a seller had been willing to sell for $1.30, the seller receives $0.20 (20 cents) of producer surplus. The original producer surplus is the area above the original supply curve and below the original price of $1.50. That’s the purple shaded area in the graph. Once the tax is implemented, the price paid by consumers goes up, but the amount retained by the sellers goes down. The sellers now have to send 164 to the government for every bottle of soda sold. So from the sellers perspective, the price retained is the new price ($1.55) minus the tax ($0.16), or $1.39. The producer surplus declines. Some sellers are no longer selling soda because $1.39 is less than they are willing to sell soda for. Other sellers are still selling because they are willing to sell so long as they can retain at least $1.39. But on each bottle, they are receiving 11 cents less than they did before the tax. Their producer surplus has declined. On a graph, the new producer surplus is the light purple triangle with vertical hash marks: a triangle above the supply curve and below the new price. And here comes geometry and congruent triangles back to haunt you: The area of the light purple triangle in the graph is the same as the area of the light blue triangle at right. Side-angle-side congruence. So you could have sketched in either area: light purple (below $1.39 and above the original S curve) or light blue (below $1.55 and above the second S curve). Congruent triangles = same area = same producer surplus. c. (1 point) Why did the price rise? Why did the price rise by less than the full amount of the tax? The price rises because the costs of production – in the form of an excise tax – increased. Sellers are not willing to produce the same quantity 120 billion bottles now that their costs are 16 cents higher. The sellers may try to pass the entire tax on to their buyers, increasing price from $1.50 to $1.66. But they won’t be able to. At a price of $1.66, sellers can’t sell as much soda as they could at a price of $1.50. That’s because buyers are not willing to buy as much soda at a price of $1.66 as they were willing to buy at a price of $1.50. The demand curve slopes down. As the Department of Economics University of California, Berkeley Problem Set #1 Fall 2014 Economics 1 Page 8 of 8 price increases above $1.50, quantity demanded falls. So the price rises, but not by the full 16 cents. The only time buyers can pass on the entire tax is when the demand curve is vertical. The only time buyers can’t pass on any of the tax is when the demand curve is horizontal. In any other case, the burden of the tax will be borne by both buyers and sellers. 4. Essay: The Price Mechanism (2 points total) Write a one-page essay in which you address these points: $ Give an example of a good or service that is allocated to buyers using the price mechanism. Do not use an example that was discussed in lecture; come up with a new example. Should society use the price mechanism to determine for whom this good is produced? Why or why not? $ Now give an example of a good or service that is currently not allocated to buyers using the price mechanism. Do not use an example that was discussed in lecture; come up with a new example. What is the non-price rationing mechanism that determines for whom this good or service is produced? Should society not use the price mechanism to determine for whom this good is produced? Why or why not? Of course, there are lots of specific examples, so we can’t provide you with “this is what you should have written.” Guidelines: a. Did you follow the specifications? Maximum 400 words? Maximum one page? 1” margins? Double-spaced? 10 or 11 or 12 pt font? Your name, date, and word count in the top right corner? Your essay stapled at the back of your problem set? Attached your “works cited” list (either at the end of page 1 or on a separate page)? If so, you remained eligible for full credit. If not, you lost a point right off the top. b. Did you choose an example of a good or service that is allocated using the price mechanism? Did you then choose a second example of a different good or service that is not allocated using the price mechanism? Did you describe the rationing mechanism that is used to allocate this second good or service to consumers? If so, good! For example, who gets to purchase a semester at Cal? Is that determined by price? No. If it was, then education would go to the people willing and able to pay the most. Instead, we have an admissions process – a non-price rationing mechanism – that determines who is going to purchase a semester at Cal and who is not. Even someone with the richest parents in the world is not allowed to purchase a Cal education if they have 400 on their SATs and a 1.8 gpa in high school. But who gets to purchase a Cal sweatshirt? Anyone who is willing and able to pay the market price. The price mechanism determines who are the buyers of Cal sweatshirts. c. When you answered the questions about whether or not society should use (or not use) the price mechanism for allocating the goods you chose, did you recognize that this is a normative question? Did you remember that in order to answer any normative question, you must first explicitly state what goal we are trying to achieve? Did you explicitly state a goal, and then write up your analysis in light of that goal? If so, good!