Comparison of Observational, and Experimental Research Strategies Type of Study Subtype Purpose Methodology Observational Sample Comparative Survey observational studies to learn about to observe or measure some large the relationship actual (e.g., between two variables biological) (or among several population variables) Representative sample (subgroup) chosen from the population for study (questioning or examination). Differences between groups in both (or all) variables occur naturally. Bias and confounding are possible Bias and Confounding Intervention? No intervention, manipulation, or treatment Experiment to measure the effect of an explanatory variable on the response or outcome variable treatments assigned at random to experimental units (or vice versa) to avoid bias and confounding. Bias and confounding usually avoided if done properly explanatory variable = an intervention, manipulation, or treatment applied to the experimental unit response or outcome variable = a characteristic of the experimental units that is observed after the treatment is applied Results Conclusions drawn from the sample generalized to the population. Causality? Reference Document1 Can confirm the existence and measure the strength of the relationship under the conditions of the study. Results do not imply cause and effect. Experiment Baldi & Moore (2009), Chapter 7 1 Results do imply cause and effect (if done properly). Baldi & Moore (2009), Chapter 8 2/6/2016 Examples comparing Survey, a Comparative Observational Study, and an Experiment Variables of interest Study time (hr) Score on test (%) Sampling Study A o 150 students randomly selected from registration records o Each student contacted and asked how many hours they studied for their last test, and their test score on the last test Study B o 150 students from Psych 101 required to schedule 1 hour appointment at psychometrics lab to study a five page report and then take a test about it o 50 students given 5 minutes to study, 50 given 15 minutes, 50 given 25 minutes Study C o 150 students questioned at McComas Hall (rec center) o Each student asked how many hours they studied for their last test, and their scores on the last test Document1 2 2/6/2016 Confounding, Bias, and Sampling Designs Confounding Two variables (explanatory variables or unobserved “lurking” variables) are confounded when their effects on a response variable cannot be distinguished from one another (from Baldi and Moore, 1999, Section 7.1, Observation versus experiment) Example Storks and Births Example 1 of Confounding Table 1-A The two explanatory variables, Flow and Depth, are confounded. We cannot tell whether the change in Algae concentration is caused by Flow, Depth, or a combination of the two. Table 1-A. Effects of Flow and Dept on Algae Concentration (g/l) Algae Conc (g/l) 12.31 Flow rapid Depth shallow moderate medium 3.14 slow deep 0.21 Table 1-B. Effects of Flow and Dept on Algae Concentration (g/l) Depth shallow medium deep rapid 12.31 ? ? moderate ? 3.14 ? slow ? ? 0.21 Document1 3 Flow Table 1-B is a rearrangement of Table 1-A, to expose the confounding. Confounding occurs when some combinations of levels of the two explanatory variables have been left out of the study. 2/6/2016 Example 2 of No Confounding Table 2-A The two explanatory variables, Flow and Depth, are not confounded. We can see that the response, Algae Concentration, is explained predominantly by Flow rather than Depth. Flow rapid rapid rapid moderate moderate moderate slow slow slow Document1 Depth shallow medium deep shallow medium deep shallow medium deep Algae Conc (g/l) 12.31 12.75 13.22 4.21 3.14 5.59 0.18 0.19 0.21 Table 2-B. Effects of Flow and Dept on Algae Concentration (g/l) Depth Flow Table 2-B is a rearrangement of Table 2-A, to expose the lack of confounding. When all combinations of the levels of the two explanatory variables are included, there is no confounding. Table 2-A. Effects of Flow and Dept on Algae Concentration (g/l) 4 shallow medium deep rapid 12.31 12.75 13.22 moderate 4.21 3.14 5.59 slow 0.18 0.19 0.21 2/6/2016 Bias The design of a study or a variable in a study is biased if it systematically favors certain outcomes or values (from Baldi and Moore, 1999, Chapter 7, with embellishment) Examples of Bias Self-reported Age (yrs) of women in a speed dating context. Self-reported Income ($) of men in a speed-dating context. Range of a population variable when measured in a sample. Sampling Designs 1. A simple random sample (SRS) of size n is a sample of individuals from a population chosen in such a way that every set of n individuals has equal chance to be the sample selected. 2. Stratified Random Sampling 3. Cluster Sampling 4. Systematic Sampling 5. Multi-Stage Sampling Golde I. Holtzman, Department of Statistics, College of Arts and Sciences, Virginia Tech (VPI) Last updated: 2/6/2016 © Golde I. Holtzman, all rights reserved. Document1 5 2/6/2016