Working Group 27:
North Pacific Climate Variability and Change
Motivation:
To develop essential understandings of the mechanisms of North Pacific climate variability and
change that can better guide the formulation of process -based hypotheses underlying the links
between ecosystem dynamics and physical climate.
Co-Chairs: S. Minobe (Japan), E. Di Lorenzo (USA), M. Foreman (CAN)
Duration: 3 years
Terms of Reference:
1.
Develop conceptual frameworks and low-order models of North Pacific climate variability and
change, which can be used by climate researchers to investigate the mechanisms of those
variations and by ecosystem scientists to explore hypotheses linking ecosystem dynamics
and physical climate.
(Cummins, Di Lorenzo) Low order frameworks of North Pacific climate (paper)
(Cummins) Applying AR1 models to understand the dynamics or both large and
coastal scale variability (e.g. BC coast, SSS, SST, runoff forcing and alongshore
winds)
(Di Lorenzo/Davis) A linear inverse model of North Pacific climate variability based on
low-order coupling of atmospheric and oceanic modes.
(Yeh et al) Mechanism for the North Pacific regime shift in winter of 1998/1999
(Taguchi/Bograd/Di Lorenzo) Subsurface feedback loop to connect western and
eastern boundary current system (with possible impact on subsurface nutrient and O2
dynamics)
Understanding the different aspect of climate modes and predictability
2.
Summarize the current understanding of mechanisms of Pacific climate variability and
change, and evaluate the strengths of the underlying hypotheses with supporting evidence.
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3.
In conjunction with ecosystem scientists, coordinate the development and implementation of
process-based models, which include important processes in simple forms, to hindcast the
variability of available long-term biological time series.
ECOFOR Workshop, PICES 2013 W2 and ICES 2013 Session M, need to summarize
results from these documents
Coherent changes in North Pacific climate and ecosystems (report)
(Ito) KOE physical variability/change is main driver for ecosystem. For example mix
layer, horizontal circulation and temperature fronts impact nutrients (e.g. advection),
zooplankton (e.g. advection, mix layer) and fish ( e.g. mix layer and temperature
fronts). Need to draw schematic summarizing the physical influences on marine
ecosystem dynamics. These dynamics were also explored in the context of the IPCC
runs. (possible collaboration between Minobe, Ito, Chiba).
(King) Expand on existing King et al. 2011 framework, resur rect Excel table on
mechanisms of outlining the relationship between large -scale climate and ecosystem
response. Final goal produce a summarize concept figure (e.g. a set of layered figures
that go from physical variability/change, to nutrient, to lower tr ophic levels and fish).
(Elena and Yuri) To provide material for the Okhotsk, Bearing and Japan/East Seas.
4.
Develop a method to identify and provide uncertainty estimates of decadal variability in
recent historical climate and ecosystem time series .
Report section
(Minobe) work on AR1 modeling of the climate modes (PhD student project)
(Di Lorenzo) null hypothesis of the underlying distribution of ecosystem timeseries
Post some code for the PICES community
(Takashi) Current status of decadal prediction and availability
5.
Provide improved metrics to test the mechanisms of climate variability and change in IPCC
models, and in coordination with other PICES working groups and FUTURE Advisory Panels,
assist in evaluating those models and providing regional climate forecasts over the North
Pacific. (Extension to analyze CMIP5)
Report Section (Foreman lead!)
(Minobe) CMPI5 analysis of biogeochemistry and role of circulation. We can develop a
simple diagnostic of the ocean circulation (e.g. metric that test the realism of the
patterns of circulation and of the dynamics that drive them).
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(Foreman) Future projection results, update and provide ensemble statistics, how
credible results are in contemporary time, atmospheric field, dynamical may be
preferable but statistical downscaling may be more convenient. Difference between
observed and modeled winds needs further understanding.
(Davis/Di Lorenzo) Use linear Inverse models to diagnose CMIP 5 (e.g. isolate
stochastic patterns that drive oceanic variability in north and tropical Pacific.
6.
Understand and fill the gaps between what physical models can currently produce and what
ecosystem scientists suggest are the important physical forcing factors required for
predicting species and ecosystem responses to climate variability and change.
(Extension to further analyze the gaps)
Conference calls in the Spring of 2014 to further brainstorm
(King) Link the material of TOR 3 with the CFAME material that has not been
published. The focus was on high trophic levels and mechanisms important for fish.
Key oceanic forcing: upwelling strength and timing, stratification and mix later depth,
temperature surface and subsurface, strength of the alongshore and cross -shore
transport
both
surface
and
sub-surface,
eddies
and
submesoscale
fronts .
Understanding the timing of the physical variability in relation to the timing of
ecosystem processes. CFAME produced meta-diagram of the mechanism but without
providing actual quantitative measures supporting the physical/biological links.
Perhaps WG27 can revise this for the things were links can be made and quantified?
Make a figure for each trophic level and outline what is known and what is unknown,
some information needed to test ecosystem models is missing (e.g. nutrient budget)
(see King et al. 2011 and Yatsu )
(Curchister) Use new models to provide information and forecasts for physical forcing
functions such as upwelling timing and strength, eddies, cross -shore and alongshore
exchanges
7.
Maintain linkages with, and summarize the results from National and
International
programs/projects such as CLIVAR, IMBER, US CAMEO, ESSAS, Japanese Hot Spot in the
Climate System, POMAL, CREAMS EAST -I, POBEX, and others.
Links to CLIVAR, GLOBEC (not complete) and ICES have been established.
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8.
Convene workshops and sessions to evaluate and compare results and maintain an
awareness of state-of-the-art advances outside the PICES community.
Already complete: (Extension to organize contributions to Brazil 3 rd sym)
October 11, 2013 Workshop on Identifying mechanisms of ecosystem response to
climate during the PICES annual meeting in Nainamo, Canada. [Read more]
September 23, 2013 Workshop on mechanisms underlying co -variability between
ecosystem and climate during the ICES annual meeting in Iceland. [Read more]
October 18, 2012 Session on Climate Variability and Change during the PICES annual
meeting in Japan. [Read summary]
Septemper 7-11, 2012 GLOBEC/PICES/ICES Workshop on Forecasting Ecosystem
Indicators with Process-based Models took place at the Friday Harbor Labs near
Seattle. [Go to website]
9.
Publish a final report summarizing results.
(Extension to analyze create possible vision and plan for new working groups )
Video Presentation available at http://o3d.org/web_db_movies/PICES-WG27-TORs.mov
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Members
Canada: Patrick Cummins, Mike Foreman
China: Xiaopei Lin, Guimei Liu, Lixin Wu
Japan: Shin-ichi Ito, Shoshiro Minobe, Takashi Mochizuki, Bunmei Taguchi , Sanae Chiba
Korea: Soon Il An, Sang-Wook Yeh, Chang Joo Jang
Russia: Yury Zuenko, Elena Ustinova, Vladimir Kattsov
U.S.A.: Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Enrique Curchitser, Taka Ito , Julie Keister
Proposed Linkages to the FUTURE Science Plan:
1.
What determines an ecosystem’s intrinsic resilience and vulnerability to natural and
anthropogenic forcing?
1.1. What are the important physical, chemical and biological
processes that underlie the structure and function of
ecosystems?
High to Moderate
1.2. How might changing physical, chemical and biological
processes cause alterations to ecosystem structure and function?
High to Moderate
1.3. How do changes in ecosystem structure
relationships between ecosystem components?
affect
the
Low
1.4. How might changes in ecosystem structure and function
affect an ecosystem’s resilience or vulnerability to natural and
anthropogenic forcing?
Low
1.5. What thresholds, buffers and amplifiers are associated with
maintaining ecosystem resilience?
Low
1.6. W hat do the answers to the above sub -questions imply about
the ability to predict future states of ecosystems and how they
might respond to natural and anthropogenic forcing?*
Low
2. How do ecosystems respond to natural and anthropogenic forcing, and how might they
change in the future?
2.1. How has the important physical, chemical and biological
processes changed, how are they changing, and how might they
change as a result of climate change and human activities?
Very High
2.2. W hat factors might be mediating changes in the physical,
chemical and biological processes?
High
2.3. How does physical forcing, including climate variability and
climate change, affect the processes underlying ecosystem
structure and function?
2.4. How do human uses of marine resources affect the processes
underlying ecosystem structure and function?
High
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Low
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2.5. How are human uses of marine resources affected by changes
in ecosystem structure and function?
Low
2.6. How can understanding of these ecosystem processes and
relationships, as addressed in the preceding sub -questions, be
used to forecast ecosystem response?
High to Moderate
2.7. W hat are the consequences of projected climate changes for
the ecosystems and their goods and services?
High
3. How do human activities affect coastal ecosystems and how are societies affected by
changes in these ecosystems?
3.1. W hat are the dominant anthropogenic pressures in coastal
marine ecosystems and how are they changing?
High to Moderate
3.2. How are these anthropogenic pressures and climate forcings,
including sea level rise, affecting nearshore and coastal
ecosystems and their interactions with offshore and terrestrial
systems?
3.3. How do multiple anthropogenic stressors interact to alter the
structure and function of the systems, and what are the cumulative
effects?
High to Moderate
3.4. W hat will be the consequences of projected coastal ecosystem
changes and what is the predictability and unce rtainty of forecasted
changes?
High to Moderate
3.5. How can we effectively use our understanding of coastal
ecosystem processes and mechanisms to identify the nature and
causes of ecosystem changes and to develop strategies for
sustainable use?
Moderate
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Low
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