Jeanette Rebecchi
GIS Fall, 2010
November 12, 2010
Topic: Conducting a Build-Out Analysis
For my GIS project I planning on conducting a build out analysis for a yet to be chosen small city or town experiencing rapid development of their surrounding open space/agricultural lands. A build out analysis is a useful tool for estimating and illustrating the amount and possible location of future development under the current zoning and development regulations. There are two phases in this project; the first is to map out the location of all potentially developable land using GIS, this includes vacant as well as underdevelopment parcels. The second analytical phase provides an estimate of the total number of homes, commercial/industrial square footage, and population that could result if all buildable land within a community is developed. By showing the community this information, planners can receive feedback from the public about how they want their city to look in future. Planners could then permanently protect desired open space parcels and change local zoning and subdivision regulation to reflect the community’s preferences. A build-out analysis is also instrumental for estimating future demands on public infrastructure such as schools, water supply, sewage, utilities, waste disposal, as well as any future tax revenue that could be gained.
When planners equip themselves with the right tools and information, development can proceed within a framework of rules and regulations that produce attractive, livable communities. In order to achieve this, it is necessary to ask these kinds of questions and analyze build-out maps to prevent the kinds of developer controlled, sprawling development we have seen in the past. Not all development has to be undesirable, unsustainable, or suburban sprawl.
Questions Raised
1. How much land area can be developed under existing land use regulations, and where will this growth occur?
2. How many residential lots could there be, and how much will the population of the community increase at full build-out?
3. How much more commercial/industrial space is available for development. What impact would that have on current infrastructure, jobs, and the overall look of a community?
3. Are there areas projected for development that the community would prefer not to develop?
4. Are there areas that the community would prefer to develop at a different density than currently allowed?
5. What steps should the community take now to encourage positive types of development

Resources
1. Montgomery County Planning Commission.(1996) Shaping Future Development: The Role of
Current Zoning. http://www.epa.gov/greenkit/pdfs/futgrow0.pdf
This manual gives an informative background on how build-out analyses can help planners make informed decisions about their city’s infrastructure and growth controls. It also highlights the effects that new development has on transportation, infrastructure, population, open space, etc.
2.. Theobald, D., Hobbs, Thompson. (1998) “Forecasting Rural Land-use Change: A
Comparison of Regression and Spatial Transition-based Models”. Geographical &
Environmental Modeling . Vol 2. No. 1. pp. 65-82. http://warnercnr.colosctate.edu/~davet/theobald_hobbs_1998_gem.pdf
This article compares two different types of land use changes models. When comparing
accuracy regarding predicted land use change, the spatial model worked better.
3. US Environmental Protection Agency. How to Do a Build-Out Analysis http://www.epa.gov/greenkit/build_out.htm
This guide from the EPA provides basic, “how to” information. This was a good starting point to uncover what data I will need and what questions to ask.
4. The Official Website of the Office of Geographic Information (MassGIS)
“Scope of Services for Build-Out Analysis” http://www.mass.gov/mgis/buildout.htm
This vital document summarizes the methodology and deliverables to be performed by the contractors when preparing a build-out analysis for the State. It goes in depth into the formulas and data layers used in the quantitative part of the analysis.
5. The Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs. (2002) “ Where Do You Want To
Be at Buildout?; The Build-Out Analysis in Depth”. http://commpres.env.state.ma.us/publications/CHAPTER2.PDF?
This publication goes into depth into the build-out analysis performed for Hopkinton
Massachusetts.
6. Godschalk, David. (2006). “Build-Out Analysis: A Valuable Planning and Hazard Mitigation
Tool”. Zoning Practice . American Planning Association. Issue 3. http://www.planning.org/zoningpractice/2006/pdf/mar.pdf
This guide from the APA while providing basic info, it describes the methodology that the State of Massachusetts used to conduct a build out analysis for every city and town across the State as part of the Community Preservation Initiative of Executive Office of

Environmental Affairs. The article described how undeveloped land in each zoning district was identified through the interpretation of orthophotos without regard to parcel boundaries. Using overlay and spreadsheet tools, future residential units and industrial/commercial areas were then estimated. The final analysis included the number of housing units, population and number of school children, square feet of commercial land and industrial space, gallons of water demanded, and miles of roads.
This article also offered great examples of further resources available on this topic.
7. Lacy, Jeffrey. (1990) Manual of a Build-Out Analysis . University of Massachusetts- Amherst. http://scholarworks.umass.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1023&context=larp_ms_projects
This manual introduces the planning tool of build-out analysis, and describes the data requirements, materials, and techniques necessary to complete both the GIS and quantitative portions of the analysis.
8. Amengual, Matthew. (2001). “Charlestown at Build-out: Modeling Development and
Conservation.” http://envstudies.brown.edu/oldsite/Thesis/2001/amengual/buildout/methodology.htm
This thesis is another example of how to perform a build-out analysis using GIS.
9. Polimeni, John. “Simulating Agricultural Conversion to Residential Use in the Hudson River
Valley: Scenario Analyses and Case Studies”.
Agriculture and Human Values . Vol 22. No 4. pp.377-393
Examples of using build out analysis for agricultural land conversion in the Hudson
Valley.
Methods
Phase 1: Creating Build-Out Maps
GIS Tool Used- Overlay Tool
The first step is to create a map depicting all vacant parcels of land and how they are zoned. On both residential and commercially zoned parcels I will have to take into account various limiting factors because not all land on a parcel can be developed. According to the article by David Godschalk, “…deductions for roads, lot size variations, and other constraints can subtract 10 to 30 percent from potentially buildable acreage. The result is total net buildable area, expressed as the formula: Raw Land x Adjustments (for roads and other constraints) =
Total Net Buildable Area. The net buildable area is then divided by the minimum lot sizes required in the various residential zones to find the total number of new housing units.”
Godschalk goes onto describe that for commercial and industrial areas, the analysis is based on determining an estimated FAR (Floor Area Ratio), taking into account zoning

requirements and limitations. “Typical limiting factors include the FAR or the percent lot coverage and height limits specified in the zoning ordinance, along with parking and open space requirements. To avoid overestimating the potential square footage, the effective FAR should be based on the most limiting of the requirements.”
Semi-developed land- Look at each property individually to determine if the land can be subdivided or if home can be converted to multi-family residence or commercial uses. If the property is commercial, can the business be expanded or changed to residential? Can parcels be consolidated to form superstores?
Change over time- For communities that have a high percentage of undeveloped or underdeveloped land I may want to show how growth could progress. The most logical areas that would experience growth first would be along major roads and on large parcels, then onto less desirable parcels, etc.
Phase 2: Conducting Quantitative Analysis
Once the maps have been created and analyzed, I can measure the effects of development on some or all of the following:
 percentage of impermeable surfaces
 acres farmed

 population/number of school-age children
 housing units/housing density traffic
 tax revenues
 demand on schools, water supply, sewage, electrical production, police force, etc.
Data Layers Needed:
 Base map depicting boundaries, streets, surface water areas, open space
 Natural resources inventory/ Development constraints map depicting all land that cannot be developed due to public ownership, conservation and utility easements, natural factors
(flood plains, slopes over 25%, wetlands)
 Existing land use and parcel map
 Current zoning map for entire city
The next step in the project is to determine what city or town I will focus my study on. Once decided I can approach them for the relevant GIS layers listed above. The level of spatial accuracy does not need to be very high, perhaps within several hundred feet of the true location.
What matters most is how recently the data was gathered. If I use land use data from tens years ago who knows what has been built or changed since that time.