GB 311 125 Business Statistics Spring 2013 Online Section June 4, 2013 – July 26, 2013 Instructor: Dr. Ray Mooring Phone: Contact me via the Blackboard Interface. For emergencies ONLY, call 404-803-7585. Email: Contact me via the Blackboard Mail System Office Hours: I will be available through the Blackboard Classroom at least 5 days per week. I will answer all questions within 24-36 hours of the posting time. Access to the Blackboard classroom is at: https://tamuct.blackboard.com UNILERT Emergency Warning System for Texas A&M University – Central Texas UNILERT is an emergency notification service that gives Texas A&M University-Central Texas the ability to communicate health and safety emergency information quickly via email and text message. By enrolling in UNILERT, university officials can quickly pass on safety-related information, regardless of your location. Please enroll today at TAMUCT.org/UNILERT 1.0 Course Overview and description: Business Statistics is the science of collecting, organizing, and summarizing data to provide information, stated in numerical form, for the purpose of making objective business decisions. Descriptive statistics will be the focus of the course with an abbreviated introduction to inferential statistics. Topics include the foundations of statistical methods of sampling, classifying, analyzing, and presenting numerical data; frequency and sampling distributions, averages, dispersion, hypothesis testing, and analyzing up to two populations and population proportions. The course will employ the use of an online statistics learning system for problem assignments, in conjunction with the text and lectures, in completing course coverage of each statistics topic. Prerequisite: Junior Classification. 2.0 Course Objective: The student will understand the foundations of statistics, by creating and interpreting basic statistical graphs and charts, calculating and interpreting measures of central tendency and variation (Module 1), basic probability, probability distributions (Module 2), and conducting and interpreting hypothesis tests (Module 3). Additionally the student will be able to apply the statistical foundations in beginning inferential statistics, which include comparing two populations or more populations, comparing two population proportions, comparing two variables or treatments for a single population, and relating two variables (Modules 3 and 4). The student will meet the course objective and the following student learning outcomes by using the statistical learning software, Hawkes Learning System (HLS), and by using Microsoft Excel. The purpose of HLS is to provide each student with an online learning environment in which the student is able to learn, master, and apply knowledge while working within a mastery based pedagogical approach (Hawkes Learning Systems, n.d.). A link to the HLS student training video is available in the main menu, in the Blackboard classroom. Additionally, recorded MS Excel tutorials are available on the main Learning Module page, in the Blackboard classroom. Each student will demonstrate mastery of each topic by achieving 80% on each assignment and each exam, as outlined in each module. 1 2.1 Competency Goals Statements (certification or standards) 2.11 Module 1: Conduct and apply the statistical foundations (data, populations, samples, central tendency, measures of variation, and basic probability concepts), using statistical learning software, Microsoft Excel, and calculators, achieving 80% on each homework assignment and each exam. The specific statistical foundations are found in SLOs: 2.21 – 2.232, 2.241 and may be found in sections 1.1 – 1.3, 2.1 – 2.6, 3a – 3d, 4.1 – 4.3a and 4.3b and 4.5-4.10, and 6.1 – 6.12a of the text book and in the Hawkes Learning Software (Ch 1 – 6). 2.12 Module 2: Conduct and interpret statistical methods for discrete and continuous probability distributions, sampling distributions, and estimating means and proportions, using statistical learning software, Microsoft Excel, and calculators, achieving 80% on each homework assignment and each exam. The specific distributions and estimations are found in SLOs: 2.242 – 2.244, 2.151 and may be found in 7.1 – 7.4 and 7.7, 8.3a, b and 8.4 a, b, and 9.1, 9.6, and 9.7 of the text book and in the Hawkes Learning Software (Ch 7 – 9). 2.13 Module 3: Conduct and interpret statistical methods of hypothesis testing for comparing means, proportions, and treatments, using statistical learning software, Microsoft Excel, and calculators, achieving 80% on each homework assignment and each exam. The specific hypothesis methods and comparisons may be found in SLOs: 2.252 – 2.262 and may be found in 10.1 – 10.9, 11.1, 11.2, 11.4a, b, c, and 12.1a, b, 12.2, 12.3 a , b, 12.4, 12.5 of the text book and in the Hawkes Learning Software (Ch 10 – 12). 2.14 Module 4: Conduct and interpret statistical methods of hypothesis testing for comparing three or more means, or treatments (ANOVA). Conduct correlations of two variables or treatments, and relate two linear variables. Test the fit of multinomial probabilities and relate two categorical variables. Achieve 80% on each homework assignment and each exam, using statistical learning software, Microsoft Excel, and calculators. The specific methods of testing and comparing three or more populations, correlating, relating continuous and categorical variables may be found in SLOs: 2.271 – 2.282 and may be found in 5.2 – 5.9, 13.2 – 13.4, 13.8a, b, 14.2, 14.4, and 15.2, 15.3 of the text book and in the Hawkes Learning Software (Ch 5, 13, 14, 15). 2.2 Student Learning Outcomes (SLOs) 2.21 Demonstrate proficiency in reporting data numerically and graphically by achieving 80% on associated assignments and exams (Chapters 1 – 3). 2.22 Demonstrate proficiency in identifying and analyzing the following types and levels of data using appropriate statistical methods by achieving 80% on associated assignments and exams (Chapters 1 – 2). 2.221 Identify and analyze qualitative (nominal, ordinal) data using appropriate statistical methods. 2.222 Identify and analyze quantitative (continuous, discrete, interval, ratio) data using appropriate statistical methods. 2.23 Demonstrate proficiency in calculating the following descriptive statistics by achieving 80% on associated assignments and exams (Chapter 4). 2.231 Identify and calculate descriptive statistics based on measures of central tendency 2.232 Identify and calculate descriptive statistics based on measures of variation 2.24 Demonstrate proficiency in analyzing discrete and continuous probability distributions by achieving 80% on associated assignments and exams (Chapters 6 – 8). 2.241 Identify the properties of probabilities and calculate probabilities using the concepts of probability, in particular, sets and complements, addition rules, mutual exclusivity, multiplication of dependent and 2 independent probabilities, conditional probabilities, and basic counting rules (including permutations and combinations). 2.242 Calculate probabilities within binomial distributions, uniform distributions, normal distributions and chi-square distributions. 2.243 Calculate probabilities for non-normal distributions using Chebyshev’s Theorem 2.244 Calculate probabilities using the Empirical Formula and the Central Limit theorem 2.25 Demonstrate understanding and proficiency in calculating confidence intervals, conducting hypothesis tests, and calculating p-values by achieving 80% on associated assignments and exams (Chapters 9 – 10). 2.251 Calculate confidence intervals when the population standard deviation is known/unknown and for proportions 2.252 Conduct hypothesis testing when the population standard deviation is known/unknown and for proportions 2.253 Calculate p-values for all hypothesis tests 2.26 Demonstrate proficiency in calculating inferential statistics (one or two populations) by achieving 80% on associated assignments and exams (Chapters 11 – 12). 2.261 Compare means or proportions of two populations 2.262 Compare means of two treatments within one population 2.27 Demonstrate proficiency in calculating inferential statistics (three or more populations and relationships) by achieving 80% on associated assignments and exams (Chapters 5, 13, 14). 2.271 Compare means of three or more populations using analysis of variance (ANOVA) 2.272 Correlate two variables or treatments using Pearson’s Product Correlation 2.273 Relate two variables or treatments using simple linear regression 2.28 Demonstrate proficiency in calculating inferential statistics (relationships of categorical variables) by achieving 80% on associated assignments and exams (Chapter 15). 2.281 Test the fit of multinomial probabilities with categorical data (goodness of fit). 2.282 Test the relationship of two or more categorical variables (tests of independence). 2.3. Meeting the Course Objective and Student Learning Outcomes. In meeting the course objective and learning outcomes, students must first familiarize themselves with the Hawkes Learning System. Select the student training link and listen to the presentation. Additionally, become familiar with Excel and the Excel tools provided in the Calculation Aids folder on the main Learning Module page. Next, select and preview the presentations for the lecture and then listen to the recorded lecture. Use the textbook as an additional reference for your understanding of the material presented in the lectures. Listen to any appropriate assignment specific tutorial or Question and Answer, then complete the homework assignments. In completing the homework assignments follow the instructions given in paragraph 4.4.1. of this syllabus. 3.0 Required Textbook and software: 3.1 Text: Hawkes, J. S. & Marsh, W. H. (2005). Discovering Statistics (2nd ed.). Charleston, SC: Hawkes Learning Systems. ISBN: 978-0-918091-84-0 NOTE: A student of this institution is not under any obligation to purchase a textbook from a universityaffiliated bookstore. If you choose to use other sources to purchase the textbook, you must access www.hawkeslearning.com/store and purchase a separate student access code for your use during this course. Purchasing the text book and software package from either the university bookstore or from 3 Hawkes Learning System will ensure you have the most current software. Post Script: If you purchase the textbook from the university bookstore, please download the software from the Hawkes Learning website. As of May 2012, HLS updated the software package. 3.2 Hand held calculator. It must have square root key in addition to the basic functions of addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division – at a minimum. 3.3 Access to a computer with Microsoft EXCEL (you will use MS Excel). 3.4 Access to the internet and ability to upload and download Hawkes Learning System homework, quizzes, and exams (It is your responsibility to ensure you have constant access to the internet – this is an online course). 4.0 Course Requirements and Structure: 4.1 Online Course: This course is completely online and will be conducted in an asynchronous mode. The asynchronous mode does not require the students or the instructor to be online at any specified day or time. Daily work (including listening to the recorded lectures) is completed by the student according to the weekly schedule in this syllabus, but at a time that is convenient to the student. This mode does require the instructor to be available (online), at least 5 days a week, to answer questions. Students are responsible for ensuring constant access to the Internet and operability of their personal computers. 4.2 Course Classroom: The classroom will be in Blackboard under this course’s name and section number. Access to Blackboard is through https://tamuct.blackboard.com/. Please refer all technical problems to the Blackboard help desk; contact information is on the Blackboard login page. 4.2.1 Blackboard Course Navigation: Please read the “Start Here” letter (in the Blackboard classroom) and become familiar with the online classroom environment. 4.3 Class Discussions: Select Discussions from the menu found on the left side of the Blackboard class home page. All discussions and questions will be placed in their respective topics for ease of understanding by all class members and the instructor. All entries are threaded so that you may easily see a question and the respective responses to that question. All class members are invited to fully participate in the discussions, assisting their class members when they are able. This means class members may answers questions if they know the answers. Please note discussions are not required as part of your grade but are highly encouraged for better understanding and clarification of the theory and in conducting calculations of specified problems within Hawkes Learning System. The instructor will always read each question and the respective answers to ensure correctness and accuracy. If the instructor is unable to effectively answer the question in the threaded discussions groups, the instructor may provide a recorded answer (similar to the recorded lectures) and post that recorded answer in the Recorded Q&A folder on the main Learning Module webpage, in Blackboard. 4.4 Weekly Discussion Questions: Select the Discussion Questions (DQ) thread and answer one of the given weekly questions. Responses must be, at a minimum, between 100 and 250 words, and the use of two references (one may be the text book) is required as support for your response. To respond, highlight the appropriate thread, click on Reply, type your response, and send. Please do not start a new thread in the weekly discussion questions forum. The weekly DQs will be graded as outlined the Grading Scale paragraph (para 5.2) and the grading rubric at the appendix. Do not just copy information from your reference. This is called plagiarism and defeats the purpose of the assignment. You must paraphrase/re-state your findings. DQs will be due by 11:59 pm each Sunday evening. To reiterate, you may not “cut and paste” response from internet sources. Any form of plagiarism is against the Warrior code of ethics and could be a cause of failure of the course, to expulsion from the university. 4 4.5 Lectures: All lectures are pre-recorded and can be found in the respective Module folder on the homepage of the Blackboard classroom. It is recommended you use either an external speaker system or a headset to listen to the lectures. All associated presentations are in Portable Document Format (.pdf) and are also located in the respective Module folder on the homepage of the Blackboard classroom. Ensure you listen to the lectures according to the schedule at the end of this syllabus. The schedule is the minimum requirement; there is no penalty for working ahead. However, exams will be provided according to the schedule. In the respective Module, select the link for the recorded lecture. The lecture will automatically play. 4.6 Individual Participation: To ensure successful course completion, participation is expected. Participation is defined as actual work conducted in the HLS learning environment and in discussion threads in the Blackboard classroom. Listening to lectures is required and will be in accordance with this syllabus. It is important for students to become familiar with HLS. With the exception of the pre and post-test, all work, quizzes, and exams will be conducted in HLS. Lectures are based on given sections within the text. 4.7 Access to Hawkes Learning System (HLS): Upload the software provided in the text book package as directed in the software instructions (or download from HLS website), then, enter the program using the access code provided with your text book package. Hawkes Course ID for business statistics is TAMUCTBSTAT. The first time you log into the system you will need to enter the access code, select “Load from File,” and then select the appropriate instructor and course. After the first login, you will only need to enter your access code. Please save the access code on your hard drive and on a flash “thumb” drive, if you intend to use more than one computer. If you choose not to purchase a textbook, you will need to purchase the access code from the HLS website. Note: In the HLS website, the software/textbook you need to choose is DISCOVERING STATISTCS. DO NOT choose Discovering Business Statistics. That is a separate (different) course. Note: HLS is designed to be used both online and offline. However, students are responsible to have full internet access throughout this course, to ensure they are able to upload or download homework, quizzes, and exams. 4.8 Assignments: All assignments and exams will be accomplished through the Hawkes Learning System. HLS is a Web-based, artificially intelligent assessment and learning system. There will not be any “traditional” homework assignments, as each student will be required to complete work on the HLS system. In addition to exams students will be graded on the progress made through each chapter, in HLS. See Grade Computation below. Late assignments will be reduced 20% for each day they are late. Feel free to work ahead in the chapter reviews. All of the chapter review assignments will be open on the first day of class. 4.8.1 Chapter Reviews: The graded portions of the homework assignments will be the chapter review for each of the chapters (Chapters 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 5, 14, 13, and 15). There is only one section in Chapter 1 and 14; therefore, there is not a chapter review – you will work that one section (in chapter 1 and 14 only). Students are advised to work through the practice problems within the chapter review section of each required chapter, prior to certifying in the chapter. NOTE: When certifying, ensure you are in the chapter review portion of the HLS chapter; otherwise the work completed will not count for completion credit. Homework feedback is provided automatically when completing the chapter review for a grade (also known as certifying). Students will be given a minimum of “3 strikes”. This means the student may miss up to 5 three questions, before being sent back to practice. If the student is sent back to practice, the program will automatically go to the area in which the student is having problems. If the student successfully completes the certifying chapter review, the student will receive a certificate of completion, which the student must save. If the student is online when certifying the grade book will be automatically updated. If the student is not online when certifying, then the student must manually upload the certificate into HLS (please see the student training video). 4.9 Exams: There will be four objective exams administered during the semester as indicated on the course calendar. Exams represent the independent work of students. Further, no exam may be taken more than one time in an effort to improve the score achieved. If an exam is taken more than once, the grade on the latest attempt will be used in the calculation of your grade. With the exception of emergencies, any exam not made up within one week after the scheduled date, will be scored as a zero. All exams will be HLS based and will be completed online. Each exam will be scheduled on the first Sunday evening after a section has been completed. All students will be given 2 hours to complete 15-20 problems. Each exam will open at 4:00 p.m. and close at 9:00 p.m. CST on the scheduled exam date. All exams must be taken to pass the course. HLS provides immediate feedback, upon completion of the exam. Reenter the exam to see the problems missed and a correct method of answering the problems. 4.9.1 Pre & Post Tests: Each student will complete the pre-test during the first week of class, and the posttest during the last week of class. These tests are comprehensive and are designed to measure the knowledge obtained, concerning the SLOs and Objectives. These tests are not graded; however, students are required to take both tests. Points are awarded based on the performance on the post-test only. Post-Test Score (%) 90% (or better) 80% (or better) 70% (or better) 60% (or better) 0% - 59% Points 111 83 55 27 0 Do not guess on any question on either test. If you do not know the answer, leave the answer blank. The pretest and post-test will be taken via Blackboard (these will be the ONLY tests taken in Blackboard). When you are ready to take the pre-test or post-test, log-in to the Blackboard classroom, select Exams from the link on the left-side menu, then select the appropriate exam. You will be given three hours with which to take the exams and they must be completed in a single sitting (you should not need three hours). NOTE: You will fail this course if you attempt to only take the exams and not complete the required online homework assignments. 4.10 Instructor Access: The instructor will be available online a minimum of 5 days a week and will answer all questions, either in the messages or discussions forums, within 24-36 hours of the question’s posting date. Feedback for assignments and exams will be as written in paragraphs 4.8 and 4.9. 6 5.0 Grading Criteria 5.1 Grade Computation: Students earn their course grades by completing scheduled assignments; no extra credit assignments are given. To pass this course satisfactorily, students must complete each of the graded items listed below. Failure to complete appropriate assignments and exams may result in a failing grade. Refusal to complete homework assignments will result in a failing grade. 5.2 Grading Scale: Total Grade A B C D F Points 900 – 1,000 points 800 – 899 points 700 - 799 points 600 – 699 points 599 points & below Final grades will be calculated as follows: 4 Exams (115 points each) 15 Homework Assignments: Chapter Reviews (19 points each) Weekly DQs (18 points each) Post-Test (Comprehensive) (111 Points) TOTAL Points 460 285 Percentage 46% 28.5% 144 111 14.4% 11.1% 1,000 100% 7 6.0 Course Calendar COURSE OUTLINE AND ASSIGNMENTS WK Class/Activity 1 Intro 04-09 June Lecture 1 (Ch 1.1 1.3, 2.5 – 2.8) Lecture 2 (Ch 3) 2 10-16 June 3 17- 23 June 4 24-30 June 5 01-07 July 6 08-14 July 7 15 – 21 July 8 22-26 July Lecture 3 (Ch 4.1 – 4.3) Lecture 4 (Ch 4.4 – 4.10) Lecture 5 (Ch 6.1, 6.2, 6.4, 6.6, 6.12) Lecture 6 (Ch 6.9) Lecture 7 (Ch 6.10, 6.11) Lecture 8 (Ch 7.1 -7.4) Lecture 9 (Ch 7.7) Exam 1 Subject Introduction to HLS and syllabus Statistics, Data Reality, and Problem Solving Organizing, Displaying, and Interpreting Data (Competency Goal: 2.21) Describing Data from One Variable Homework / Quiz / Exam Due Dates Pre-Test (Comprehensive) ( 04-09 Jun) Ch 1, Ch 2, Ch 3 Reviews (15 Jun) Describing Data from One Variable Probability, Randomness, and Uncertainty (Competency Goal: 2.21) Probability, Randomness, and Uncertainty Probability Distributions, Information about the Future Ch 4, Ch 6 Reviews (22 Jun) Exam 1 (23 Jun) Exam (Lectures 1 – 7) (Competency Goal: 2.21) Lecture 11 (Ch 8.2 – 8.4) Lecture 12 (Ch 9.1 – 9.9) Continuous Random Variables Ch 7, Ch 8 Reviews (29 Jun) Lecture 13 (Ch 10.4, 10.5) Lecture 14 (Ch 10.6 – 10.9) Lecture 15 (Ch 11.1 – 11.5) Lecture 16 (Ch 11.4, 12.1) Exam 2 Lecture 18 (Ch 12.3) Lecture 19 (Ch 12.3) Lecture 20 (Ch 12.4) Lecture 21 (Ch 12.5) Exam 3 Lecture 22 (Ch 14) Lecture 23 (Ch 5) Lecture 24 (Ch 13) Lecture 25 (Ch 15) Estimating Means and Proportions Additional Topics with Hypothesis Testing (Competency Goal: 2.23) Exam (Lectures 13 – 21) ANOVA Correlation Simple Linear Regression Chi-Square (Competency Goal: 2.24) Ch 14, Ch 5, Ch 13, Ch 15 Reviews (20 Jul) Exam 4 Post-Test Exam 4 (Lectures 22 – 25; (Chs 5, 13, 14, 15)) Final Exams EXAM 4 (23-24 Jul) Post-Test (22-26 Jul) Sampling and Sampling Distributions (Competency Goal: 2.22) Ch 9, Ch 10 Review (06 Jul) Exam 2 (07 Jul) Introduction to Hypothesis Testing (Competency Goal: 2.22) Exam (Lectures 8 – 12) Introduction to Hypothesis Testing Ch 11, Ch 12 Reviews (13 Jul) Exam 3 (14 Jul) 8 7.0 Drop Policy: If you discover that you need to drop this class, you must go to the Records Office and ask for the necessary paperwork. Professors cannot drop students; this is always the responsibility of the student. The record’s office will provide a deadline for which the form must be returned, completed and signed. Return the signed form to the records office, wait 24 hours, go into DuckTrax and confirm that you are no longer enrolled. If you are still enrolled, follow up with the records office immediately. You are to attend class until the procedure is complete to avoid penalty for absence. Should you miss the deadline or fail to follow the procedure, you will receive an F in the course. 8.0 Academic Integrity: Texas A&M University - Central Texas expects all students to maintain high standards of personal and scholarly conduct. Students guilty of academic dishonestly are subject to disciplinary action. Academic dishonesty includes, but is not limited to, cheating on an examination or other academic work, plagiarism, collusion, and the abuse of resource materials. The faculty member is responsible for initiating action for each case of academic dishonestly. Institutional policies for student conduct can be found at the Division of Student Affairs/Student Conduct website at: www.ct.tamus.edu/StudentConduct. 9.0 Disability Support Services: The Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) is a federal anti-discrimination statute that provides comprehensive civil rights protection for persons with disabilities. Among other things, this legislation requires that all students with disabilities be guaranteed a learning environment that provides for reasonable accommodation of their disabilities. Blackboard Learn (v. 9.1) is certified for non-visual accessibility. If you believe you have a disability requiring an accommodation, please contact Ryan Thompson, Academic Support Programs Coordinator, at (254) 519-5796 or by email at rthomp8@ct.tamus.edu. You may also visit Academic Support at: http://www.ct.tamus.edu/departments/academicsupport/disability.php. 10.0 Tutoring: Tutoring is available to all TAMUCT students, both on-campus and online. Subjects tutored include Accounting, Finance, Statistics, Mathematics, and Writing (APA). Tutors are available at the Tutoring Center in Founder's Hall, Room 204, and in the Library in the North Building. Visit www.ct.tamus.edu/AcademicSupport and click "Tutoring Support" for tutor schedules and contact info. If you have questions, need to schedule a tutoring session, or if you're interested in becoming a tutor, contact Academic Support Programs at 254-501-5830 or by emailing cecilia.morales@ct.tamus.edu. Chat live with a tutor 24/7 for almost any subject on your computer! Tutor.com is an online tutoring platform that enables TAMU-CT students to login and receive FREE online tutoring and writing support. This tool provides tutoring in Mathematics, Writing, Career Writing, Chemistry, Physics, Biology, Spanish, Calculus, and Statistics. To access Tutor.com, click on www.tutor.com/tamuct. 11. Library Services: INFORMATION LITERACY focuses on research skills which prepare individuals to live and work in an information-centered society. Librarians will work with students in the development of critical reasoning, ethical use of information, and the appropriate use of secondary research techniques. Help may include, yet is not limited to: exploration of information resources such as library collections and services, identification of subject databases and scholarly journals, and execution of effective search strategies. Library Resources are outlined and accessed at: http://www.tarleton.edu/centraltexas/departments/library/ 9 Appendix A: Grading Rubric 10