City of Rossland: Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative Final Report September 30, 2010 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report Executive Summary In October 2009, the City of Rossland and Rossland Sustainability Commission commenced a one-year project as part of the Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative funded by Columbia Basin Trust (CBT). Rossland was one of the phase two communities selected to participate in this CBT initiative. This report contains an outline of the process followed in that project, the key climate impacts and vulnerability and risk findings and the final recommendations of the project Steering Committee for consideration by Rossland City Council. Project Milestones Key project milestones included: the selection of a thirteen member Steering Committee and Local Resource Team comprised of residents, members of the Sustainability Commission, City Councillors, and City Staff (November 2009); completion of Two Preliminary Reports on Rossland’s Historic and Future Climate and Rossland’s Socioeconomic Base Case by the Adaptation to Climate Change Team (ACT) at Simon Fraser University (February 2010); completion of a Local Observation Survey of changes that long-term residents have noted in the climate (February 2010); a public Impact Mapping and Priority Setting event to prepare impact maps for six issue areas and to select four priority issue areas – water availability, infrastructure and built environment, energy prices and availability and food security – (March 2010); researching and assessing vulnerability and risk for the four priority issue areas to prepare a Vulnerability and Risk Backgrounder (May – June 2010); and preparation of an Action Planning Data Base and Action Plans for the four priority issue areas (August – September 2010). Projected Climate Changes There is substantial evidence that our climate is changing. The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change’s (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report and downscaled climate models for the Columbia Basin suggest that key climate changes that Rossland is likely to experience by 2050 include: higher average summer and winter temperatures, in the potential range of 2C; increased overall precipitation in the range of 10.5%, but decreases in precipitation in the summer in the range of 3%; decreases in snowfall and snowpack; Page ii Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report earlier spring-run off by about 15 to 40 days; lower summer stream flows for longer periods; and increases in extreme events, such as heavy precipitation, droughts and windstorms. These are likely conservative estimates, based on the best information available at the time of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report, which include optimistic assumptions regarding the success of international negotiations to limit global greenhouse gas emissions and peer-reviewed literature dating only to 2006. The views outlined in more recent scientific literature are more pessimistic. Vulnerability and Risk Rossland’s vulnerability and risk for the four priority issue areas were assessed in detail. Highlights of those vulnerability and risks are as follows: Infrastructure Rossland’s infrastructure is aging. Climate change could contribute to greater infrastructure deterioration and damage as a result of increased basement floods and sewer back ups in heavy rainfall events, increased freeze thaw stress on road surfaces, buildings and pipes, and more snow weight on roofs. Extreme events such as wildfires or windstorms could cause significant infrastructure damage. Rossland is preparing an Infrastructure Plan to outline a schedule for future upgrades and has an opportunity to consider climate change impacts in this plan at little additional cost. However, extensive City-wide infrastructure upgrades to address climate change impacts are unlikely given current funding levels. Thus adaptation measures may have to focus on maintenance and other practices, such as promoting increased on-site or subdivision water retention. Water Climate change could result in moderately reduced water capture in Rossland’s reservoirs in most normal years due to decreased snowpack, earlier and faster spring run-off that no longer matches peak demand, and reduced summer precipitation. However variability in precipitation and temperatures and/or the increase in the incidence of extreme events could result in years where water capture is significantly lower than normal. Rossland’s high relative demand compared to other jurisdictions provides for significant opportunities to address these potential challenges through adaptation measures. Energy Due to a multitude of non-climate change related factors, such as increased global energy demand and the rising cost of processing for many energy sources, global energy costs are expected to rise. Climate may exacerbate some energy pricing and availability challenges. Reductions in summer river flows could cause increases in hydroelectric prices and extreme Page iii Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report events may cause temporary or extended power outages or price increases for fuels such natural gas or oil. Adaptation measures to decrease Rossland’s energy demand and identify alternate sources of energy make sense in the context of expected overall global price increases and mitigation requirements. Food The majority of Rossland’s food is imported and thus the implications of climate change for food security must be considered at a global level. While the scientific literature suggests that overall global food production will not decline as long as global average temperature increases do not exceed 3C, this must be taken with a considerable note of caution. Climate changes are expected to cause significant shifts in agricultural productivity, with temperate regions such as Canada becoming more productive, while productivity in tropical regions and the world’s oceans may decline substantially. Thus the geopolitical implications of climate change on food production alone may have significant impacts on Rossland’s access to food imports. Extreme events, pests and diseases may have significant further impacts on global food production. Non-climate change factors such as increase energy prices will also have an effect. In the context of the wide array of unknowns surrounding global food production, adaptation measures that promote increased local and regional food production would be prudent. High Priority Actions Nineteen high priority actions were identified in the context of key adaptation goals and objectives for each priority issue area. Many of the priority actions also include more detailed strategies that outline how the action can be achieved – the more detailed strategies are listed in the Action Planning Data Base in section four. The actions were assessed with respect to their urgency, potential cost, lead implementer and links to the City Strategic Sustainability Plan and Official Community Plan. While some of these details are presented here, the rest are contained in section four of this report. Section four also outlines actions that were also identified as important second priorities in each issue area. A key element of many of the high priority actions are that they are actions that the City and Sustainability Commission should be doing anyway. Many of them have already been identified in the Strategic Sustainability Plan (SSP) or Official Community Plan. Many of them are win-win solutions that will achieve a multitude of sustainability goals in addition to adaptation goals. Thus they can be viewed as no regrets actions that move our community towards our SSP Vision for 2030 even if the expected changes in climate did not occur. The fact that they are important from a climate change adaptation perspective just provides additional impetus to actions that we already intended to undertake. Page iv City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative The 19 priority actions selected at a public event in September 2010 are outlined below with their associated adaptation goals. General Key Adaptation Goals: ID 1.1.1 Residents are knowledgeable and continue to learn about climate change adaptation Climate change adaptation is mainstreamed into City and community operations Action Undertake a public outreach regarding specific climate change adaptation actions as they are implemented. Urg Lead Cost Funding Source H City/ SC L City/SC Description The outreach should be low-cost and simple i.e. mention of adaptation in conjunction with a City initiative in a City or Sustainability Commission newsletter, or as part of an event. The intent is to help residents to understand that adaptation is part of the rationale for certain actions, such as water conservation and fire smarting and to foster greater buy in for those actions. Ensure City committees, 1.5.1 H City L City The intent of this action is to ensure that plans and processes consider climate change is considered in City decisionclimate impacts/adaptation in making. It is not intended to be onerous, but their decision making. rather a lens that is applied to major decisions, much in the manner that the Strategic Sustainability Plan has been referenced as a standing line item in Staff memos to Council. Urgency: High – Implement in 1-3 years; Medium – Implement in 3-5 years; Low – Implement in next 5-10 years Cost: High – < $50,000; Medium – $10,00 to $50,000; Low – > $10,000 Lead: SC – Sustainability Commission; WSTF – Water Stewardship Task Force; ETF – Energy Task Force Infrastructure Key Adaptation Goals: Rossland’s infrastructure is resilient to climate change Climate change is considered in infrastructure upgrades as well as new residential development and renovations Alternate management approaches (such as conservation, on-site or neighbourhood water retention etc.) are considered in place of infrastructure upgrades ID Action Urg Lead Cost Funding Source Description Page v City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative 2.1.2 2.1.3 2.1.4 Give consideration to climate change in the new City of Rossland infrastructure upgrade assessment and plan, and encourage Council to implement the plan. H City L City 2.1.5 Encourage other agencies at the regional, provincial and federal level, such as CBT, to prepare best practices guides and provide funding for pilot programs to address climate change in mountain climates. H SC L SC 2.6.3 Prepare climate change design guidelines for new builds and renovations to reduce overheating, basement flooding, fire risk and extreme event damage. M City/ SC M Grants 2.10.1 Revise the Subdivision and Development Servicing Bylaw to require on-site or subdivision water retention and minimized runoff design in new developments. H City M City 2.10.2 Promote on-site water retention, active storage capacity and permeable surfaces on existing residential properties through education and incentives. H SC/ City M SC/ City Given that the City is preparing an Infrastructure Plan, this is an opportunity to ensure that consideration is given to climate change impacts in that plan with limited additional cost. The potential for more frequent and intense extreme events and earlier spring run off will likely have some infrastructure implications and should be considered in the new plan. Local governments have limited resources to develop best practices guides and pilot innovative climate change adaptation measures such as new drainage and road paving techniques. If other agencies were to provide funding for such projects, they could be potentially adopted on a larger scale. The Sustainability Commission (SC) could play an important advocacy role in encouraging these types of pilot programs. Voluntary guidelines for builders outlining how to build a climate change resilient home could increase the number of these types of homes in Rossland. The guidelines need not be extensive, but grant funding would probably be necessary to facilitate their development. The SC could play a role in developing grant applications. The Subdivision and Development Servicing Bylaw was prepared in 1998 and variances are required for some innovative on-site or subdivision water retention techniques, such as swales. These water retention techniques are broadly supported in the OCP and can be less expensive than more conventional stormwater management approaches, such as curbs and gutters. Revising the Subdivision and Development Servicing Bylaw to remove barriers to their application might encourage their greater use. The Subdivision and Development Servicing Bylaw has recently been budgeted for revision. Minimizing runoff through water retention techniques is a major theme in the OCP and could be critical low-cost adaptation measure reducing the need for some infrastructure upgrades. The SC and City could play a partnership role in promoting these measures. Page vi City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative Water Key Adaptation Goals: Rossland has accurate information regarding annual stream flows, snow pack and water use Rossland manages its existing water supply without the need for additional reservoir capacity The impact of potentially decreased water supply in late summer/early fall as a result of climate change is minimized without creating additional costs to tax payers Rossland is prepared to respond to droughts Ecosystem needs are considered in Rossland’s strategic water management ID Action Urg Lead Cost Funding Source Description The City is already taking significant action on this front with the installation of water meters to measure usage and the planned increase in manual monitoring on our creeks. Prioritization of this action is intended as a show of support for those actions to ensure that they continue and to provide impetus for the analysis and publication of the data once it is available. Rossland’s per capita water use is very high compared to many other jurisdictions in North America and the world. Measures to reduce it just make sense from many perspectives – climate change adaptation, sustainability, reduced future infrastructure costs, reduced sewer treatment costs and the potential to maintain downstream flows. These measures do not have to be high cost, particularly with the range of billing options made possible with water meters, and potentially grants available through CBT Water Smart for education. This has been recommended in both the SSP and OCP and could be accomplished at limited cost by updating the existing draft plan. A plan could encompass many of the water actions outlined in this report including a drought plan (3.3.1) with trigger points for water restrictions in extreme climate change event years. Communities around the world use rainwater 3.1.1 3.1.2 Improve our data regarding water supply and demand. H City L City 3.2.1 Reduce per capita water use through a combination of regulation, education, incentives and targets. H City/ SC/ WSTF L-M SC/City/ CBT Water Smart 3.4.1 Create a watershed and/or a water management plan. M City/ WSTF M City 3.5.1 Encourage residents to utilize M SC/ L SC Page vii City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative alternative water sources for non-potable water use needs. WSTF and greywater for non-potable water use needs such as lawn or garden watering. Although provincial legislation currently restricts the range of uses of greywater, this could change in the future. Although rainwater barrels (as opposed to cisterns) do not provide a significant reduction in potable water demand, they promote an ethic of conservation and could be promoted at low cost through the education strategies adopted for action 3.2.1. They also assist in on-site water retention. Wide use of cisterns could have a notable impact on Rossland’s water demand. Energy Key Adaptation Goals: Rossland’s vulnerability to the impacts of rising energy prices is minimized Rossland’s vulnerability to temporary and long-term energy supply interruptions is minimized Rossland has a diversified energy supply through local renewable energy generation ID Urg Lead Cost Funding Source Description A Community Energy Plan with targets and measures for community and corporate energy management has been suggested in the SSP, OCP and by the Energy Task Force (ETF). It would assist the City in achieving both climate change adaptation goals and carbon neutral commitments, while potentially on a Corporate level reducing City costs if energy savings are achieved. It is also a symbolic issue, establishing the City’s willingness to lead by example. Templates exist and this could likely be done at low cost with the help of the ETF. The City is already taking significant action on this front and the intent of prioritizing this action is to provide support to those initiatives and ensure that they continue and are reflected in Council decisions. In the absence of a Community and Corporate Energy Plan, the City can start taking actions to implement energy conservation measures, such as the use of lower wattage bulbs in streetlights, or a green fleet program. These actions will both help to reduce City costs and 4.1.2 Develop a Community and Corporate Energy Plan. M City/ ETF M City/ SC/ Grants 4.1.5 Control sprawl and promote infill development. H City L City 4.1.8 Identify and implement energy conservation measures on a Corporate City level. H City/ ETF M City/ Grants Page viii City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative 4.3.1 Provide incentives for the development of renewable energy facilities. M City H City/ Grants contribute to the achievement of carbon neutral commitments. Although the City’s contribution to community energy use is relatively small, it was repeatedly noted that the City must lead by example if they want residents to take action on energy conservation. Renewable energy is a significant contributor to community energy needs in many European countries at reasonable rates of return. Although renewables have yet to achieve grid parity in BC, there is significant interest in them, and small pilot projects could be fostered through the use of incentives. Renewable energy is supported in the OCP. Ultimately this kind of initiative could produce economic development spin-off benefits, but at the outset might require grant funding. Food Key Adaptation Goals: Rossland is a food secure community and its vulnerability to potential declines in global food production are minimized Local farmers and residential growers are supported Agricultural lands are identified and protected ID Urg Lead Cost Funding Source Description This could include measures such as encouraging backyard gardening, mentoring programs and workshops. Rossland REAL Food is already playing a significant role in this area and with a continuation of their funding may be able to continue to do so at a relatively low cost. For limited expenditure, the City could further designate unused public lands suitable for growing as additional community gardens and incorporate garden designations into development density bonuses. While moving towards food self-sufficiency may require a regional level solution, the City could provide assistance promoting additional backyard gardening or small-scale 5.1.2 Promote increased local food production and processing. H REAL Food/ SC M SC/City/ Grants 5.3.1 Ensure local growers have sufficient land access. M City L City Page ix City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative 5.4.1 Establish a community composting system. M City M City/ RDKB 5.5.1 Protect agricultural land and topsoil through incentives, education, planning and regulation. M City/ REAL Food L City agriculture through in greenhouse development or the purchase of private land for demonstration farms. This would require a higher level of funding and the potential water consumption implications might have to be assessed. A community composting system for yard and/or food waste system would not only provide benefits for food production, but also for reducing Rossland’s contribution to the waste stream. Yard waste could be composted in dispersed neighbourhood sites. Protecting potential agricultural land from development and ensuring that development, renovations and landscaping are done in a manner that protects topsoil are critical components of maintaining the potential for future agriculture. With some funding, Rossland REAL Food could play a role in the education component of this action, but the City has a key land-use planning role to play. Conclusions and Next Steps Climate change is a critical challenge facing the City of Rossland. Its impacts will likely start to become more evident as we move towards 2050. Climate change can also be viewed as a potential opportunity to undertake some key adaptation actions that the City has already identified in the SSP and OCP as being desirable for Rossland to promote sustainability, reduce City costs and encourage economic development. The fact that these actions are also important from a climate change adaptation perspective provides further impetus for their implementation. “Win-win” climate change adaptations are “actions that provide adaptation benefits while meeting other social, environmental or economic objectives, including climate change mitigation.” ~ Pew Center on Global Climate Change The nineteen priority adaptation actions identified in this report are presented to the City and to the Sustainability Commission for their consideration and implementation. Each priority action has been flagged with regard to whether the City or Sustainability Commission might best play a lead role in its implementation. The City is already undertaking a few of the priority actions. Including those actions in the recommendations here is intended to provide further support to the actions that the City is Page x Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report already taking. Other priority actions are additional to the work that the City is already doing and will require some budget planning by both the City and the Sustainability Commission. When selecting priority actions, consideration was given to their affordability. In most cases, the priority actions can be accomplished if they are incorporated into regular budget planning and implemented as part of the sustainability initiatives that the City would likely consider as part of the SSP implementation. Other actions may require grant funding if they are to be implemented. The Sustainability Commission may have an important role to play in assisting in the preparation of appropriate grant applications. “Even with mitigation efforts, climate change will continue to unfold for decades due to the long atmospheric lifetime of past greenhouse-gas emissions and the gradual release of excess heat that has built up in the oceans. Climate change adaptation is thus a necessity for our nation and the world.” ~ Scientific American, US Needs a Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change, September 30, 2010 Ultimately a plan is only as good as its implementation, and it is the hope of the Steering Committee that the priority actions identified in this report form the basis for the City’s ongoing response to climate change. Climate change is already occurring. The precise manner in which it will manifest in Rossland is not completely known. This report provides some best guesses based on the science available. Even if mitigation strategies prove successful, some level of climate change is inevitable. Local governments will be forced to be at the forefront of climate change adaptation and the choices they make today might affect their capacity to adapt in the future. Incorporating climate change adaptation considerations into regular planning cycles is a critical step for local governments to start taking today. Communities that anticipate and prepare for climate change now will position themselves to be the resilient sustainable communities of the future. “Many decisions that will affect how communities fare in a changing climate will be made locally.” ~ Rosina Bierbaum, Dean of University of Michigan's School of Natural Resources and Environment. Page xi Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report Acknowledgements This project was made possible through the funding and support of numerous individuals and organizations. Some of the key supporters include: The project Steering Committee – Les Carter, Kathy Moore, Ken Holmes, Kelvin Saldern, Mike Maturo, Hanne Smith, Dirk Lewis and Michelle Laurie, with special mention to the Steering Committee Chair, Aaron Cosbey, and deputy chair Don Thompson. The Local Resource Team – Don Mortimer, Steve Hilts, Deanne Steven and Chris McLean. The Rossland Sustainability Commission for offering supplemental funding and support at the public events. City staff, with special mention to Mike Maturo and Mike Thomas who offered time and critical expertise. Michelle Laurie and Rachael Roussin of CBT, who offered ongoing, patience, support and coordination assistance. Project Assistant, Cindy Hall, who was always there with an extra set of hands when needed. The project Technical Support Team, with significant thanks to Cindy Pearce, Hans Shreier, Stewart Cohen, David Lapp, Trevor Murdock and George Penfold. Without the ongoing and repeated reviews by Cindy Pearce, few of the documents associated with this process would have been produced. The Coordinators of the other Phase 2 projects, Tim Sander and Kristen Aasen, who offered camaraderie, shared ideas and contributed their time to several of Rossland’s events. The Simon Fraser research team, Deb Harford, James Watson, Christie Spry and Emily Willobee. This report was prepared by Jennifer Ellis, Project Coordinator. Many thanks to the Columbia Basin Trust (CBT), the Rossland Sustainability Commission and the City of Rossland for funding this project. Page xii Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report Table of Contents Executive Summary ...................................................................................................... ii Project Milestones ......................................................................................................................................................... ii Projected Climate Changes......................................................................................................................................... ii Vulnerability and Risk................................................................................................................................................. iii Infrastructure .................................................................................................................................................................................. iii Water ................................................................................................................................................................................................... iii Energy ................................................................................................................................................................................................. iii Food...................................................................................................................................................................................................... iv High Priority Actions ................................................................................................................................................... iv General ..................................................................................................................................................................................................v Infrastructure ....................................................................................................................................................................................v Water .................................................................................................................................................................................................. vii Energy .............................................................................................................................................................................................. viii Food...................................................................................................................................................................................................... ix Conclusions and Next Steps ........................................................................................................................................ x Acknowledgements.................................................................................................... xiii Table of Contents .......................................................................................................... 1 I: Introduction ............................................................................................................... 4 Project Overview ............................................................................................................................................................ 4 Key Project Milestones ................................................................................................................................................ 5 Step 1: Get Started (Oct – Dec 2009) ...................................................................................................................................... 5 Step 2: Learn About Climate Change (Jan – Feb 2010) ................................................................................................. 5 Step 3: Identify Priorities in Your Community (March 2010)..................................................................................... 6 Step 4: Assess Vulnerability and Risk (April – July 2010) ............................................................................................ 6 Step 5: Develop Adaptation Strategies and Actions (August – September 2010) ............................................. 6 Purpose of this Document .......................................................................................................................................... 6 Other Key Project Documents................................................................................................................................... 7 Original Socioeconomic Focus .................................................................................................................................. 8 Why Climate Change Adaptation? ........................................................................................................................... 9 II: Critical Projected Climate Changes for Rossland ............................................... 12 Temperatures ................................................................................................................................................................ 14 Hydrological Regime and Processes .................................................................................................................... 15 Variability and Extreme Events ............................................................................................................................. 17 Summary ......................................................................................................................................................................... 18 III: Vulnerability and Risk Assessment...................................................................... 20 Page 1 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report Steps .................................................................................................................................................................................. 20 Definitions....................................................................................................................................................................... 20 Vulnerability Assessment ..........................................................................................................................................................21 Risk Assessment ............................................................................................................................................................................21 Rossland’s Approach .................................................................................................................................................. 23 Priority Area 1: Infrastructure and Built Environment .................................................................. 24 Current and Future Non-Climate Related Stresses and Opportunities ................................................. 24 City-wide Infrastructure ............................................................................................................................................................24 Roads ..................................................................................................................................................................................................25 Buildings and Residences ..........................................................................................................................................................26 Storm-sewers, Culverts and Sewers .....................................................................................................................................27 Future Climate Change Infrastructure Impacts for Rossland .................................................................... 28 City-wide Infrastructure ............................................................................................................................................................28 Buildings and Residences ..........................................................................................................................................................28 Storm-sewers, Culverts and Sewers .....................................................................................................................................29 Roads ..................................................................................................................................................................................................29 Water Pipes ......................................................................................................................................................................................29 Summary ......................................................................................................................................................................... 30 Priority Area 2: Water Supply .................................................................................................................. 31 Current and Future Non-Climate Related Stresses and Opportunities ................................................. 31 Supply .................................................................................................................................................................................................31 Demand .............................................................................................................................................................................................32 Matching Supply and Demand.................................................................................................................................................33 Quality ................................................................................................................................................................................................34 Future Climate Change Water Impacts for Rossland .................................................................................... 34 Supply .................................................................................................................................................................................................35 Demand .............................................................................................................................................................................................35 Matching Supply and Demand.................................................................................................................................................35 Quality ................................................................................................................................................................................................35 Summary ......................................................................................................................................................................... 36 Priority Area 3: Energy ............................................................................................................................... 37 Current and Future Non-Climate Related Stresses and Opportunities ................................................. 37 Demand .............................................................................................................................................................................................37 Supply and Prices ..........................................................................................................................................................................40 Future Climate Change Energy Impacts for Rossland .................................................................................. 48 Demand .............................................................................................................................................................................................48 Supply and Prices ..........................................................................................................................................................................48 Summary ......................................................................................................................................................................... 49 Priority Area 4: Food Security ................................................................................................................... 50 Current and Future Non-Climate Related Stresses and Opportunities ................................................. 50 Demand .............................................................................................................................................................................................50 Supply .................................................................................................................................................................................................51 Page 2 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report Matching Supply and Demand.................................................................................................................................................56 Future Climate Change Food Impacts for Rossland....................................................................................... 56 Local Food Production ................................................................................................................................................................56 International Food Production ...............................................................................................................................................57 Summary ......................................................................................................................................................................... 57 IV: Action Plans ........................................................................................................... 59 Action Planning Process ............................................................................................................................................ 59 Goals and Objectives ....................................................................................................................................................................59 Action Planning Data Base ........................................................................................................................................................59 Review of the Action Planning Data Base ...........................................................................................................................59 Prioritization of Potential Actions .........................................................................................................................................60 Further Analysis of Priority Actions .....................................................................................................................................60 Approval of Priority Actions ....................................................................................................................................................61 Priority Climate Change Adaptation Actions .................................................................................................... 61 General ...............................................................................................................................................................................................61 Infrastructure .................................................................................................................................................................................62 Water ..................................................................................................................................................................................................63 Energy ................................................................................................................................................................................................64 Food.....................................................................................................................................................................................................65 Action Planning Data Base ....................................................................................................................................... 66 Categories of Actions ...................................................................................................................................................................67 Interpreting the Tables ...............................................................................................................................................................67 I: General ...........................................................................................................................................................................................68 II: Infrastructure ............................................................................................................................................................................73 III: Water ...........................................................................................................................................................................................82 IV: Energy .........................................................................................................................................................................................87 V: Food ...............................................................................................................................................................................................95 V: Conclusions and Next Steps ............................................................................... 101 References ................................................................................................................. 103 Page 3 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report I: Introduction Project Overview In October 2009, the City of Rossland and Rossland Sustainability Commission commenced a one-year Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative project funded by Columbia Basin Trust (CBT). The Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative is a one of a kind initiative to assist communities in the Columbia Basin to prepare for the effects of climate change, one of the greatest challenges our communities will face in the coming decades. “No person, people or nation will be spared. Only the degree by which we will have to adapt is in question.” ~ Ron Sims, King County Executive Rossland was one of the phase two communities selected to participate in this CBT program. This report contains an outline of the process followed in that project, the key climate impacts and vulnerability and risk findings and the final recommendations of the project Steering Committee for consideration by Rossland City Council. The goals of the Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative project were to: research potential climate change impacts in Rossland, establish community priorities for adapting to climate change and develop action plans in association with those community priorities. In accordance with the Initiative guidelines from CBT, the project consisted of six steps: 1) Get Started – Establish local coordinators/consultants and Steering Committee, and develop workplans 2) Learn about Climate Change – Review local climate knowledge and climate change projections for Rossland 3) Identify Priorities in your Community – Identify potential climate change impacts in Rossland and determine community priority areas to be addressed through adaptation plans 4) Assess Vulnerability and Risk – Conduct sensitivity analysis and probability assessment on priority impacts 5) Develop Adaptation Strategies and Actions – Develop adaptation strategies and actions for priority areas Oct 2009 – Dec 2009 6) Implement and Monitor Plans – Incorporate action plans into existing and future plans and bylaws Ongoing following the project Dec 2009 – Jan 2010 February 2010 – March 2010 March 2010 – July 2010 July 2010 – September 2010 This project was managed by a Steering Committee comprised of four members of the public, two representatives of the Sustainability Commission, two City Councillors, one City Staff member, one representative of Columbia Basin Trust, and a Coordinator and Assistant under Page 4 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report contract to the City of Rossland. In addition, five members of the public and two City Staff members comprising a Local Resource Team were kept informed of all project activities, invited to all project events and provided important input at various stages of the project. Broader public input was sought at various stages of the project, including public events in February 2010 to learn about climate change, March 2010 to identify priority issue areas, and September 2010 to identify priority actions. Expertise in various areas was directly sought at multiple stages of the project from groups such as Rossland REAL Food, the Rossland Sustainability Commission and associated Task Forces, City Staff, CBT Technical Support Team, long-term Rossland residents, the Phase One and Two Coordinators and consultants from other communities participating in the Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative and other community members. Key Project Milestones The key project milestones completed by the project Coordinator with the assistance of the Steering Committee are as follows: Step 1: Get Started (Oct – Dec 2009) Initial public outreach regarding project and advertising for Steering Committee members Development of a detailed work plan Selection of SFU Adaptation to Climate Change Team (ACT) as researcher for project Selection of thirteen member Steering Committee and Local Resource Team comprised of residents, members of the Sustainability Commission, City Councillors, and City Staff Attendance by Steering Committee members, City Council, City Staff and Sustainability Commission representatives at a CBT regional workshop on climate change adaptation Step 2: Learn About Climate Change (Jan – Feb 2010) Development of a local climate change observation survey to determine residents’ observations of climate change Steering Committee prioritization of research topics for SFU researchers Steering Committee review of Preliminary Reports regarding Rossland’s Historical and Future Climate, and Economic and Policy Outlook from SFU ACT Steering Committee meeting with TST experts to discuss four key climate change adaptation questions Page 5 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative Public event featuring TST experts discussing key climate change adaptation issues Completion of local observation report with 17 long-term Rossland residents identifying changes observed in the climate Step 3: Identify Priorities in Your Community (March 2010) Completion of a public Impact Mapping and Priority Setting Event to prepare impact maps and identify four priority issue areas – water availability, infrastructure, energy prices and availability and food security Step 4: Assess Vulnerability and Risk (April – July 2010) Preparation of Food Security Backgrounder for Rossland, Castlegar and Kaslo Area D Review of SFU draft Vulnerability and Risk Assessment for water, infrastructure and energy Completion of group Food Security Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Completion of Supplemental document to final SFU Vulnerability and Risk assessment for water, infrastructure and energy Step 5: Develop Adaptation Strategies and Actions (August – September 2010) Preparation of an action planning data base for water, infrastructure, energy and food Completion of a public event to prioritize actions for water, infrastructure, energy and food Preparation of final Climate Change Adaptation Report It is the hope of the Steering Committee that the City of Rossland and Sustainability Commission continue with the important work of this initiative and complete Step 6: Implement and Monitor Plans. Purpose of this Document This final report compiles the key findings of the many documents that were prepared over the course of this project including the preliminary reports prepared by SFU, the Vulnerability and Page 6 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report Risk Assessment Backgrounder, the Food Security Backgrounder, and the Action Planning Data Base. This final report was written for several audiences: 1) The City of Rossland Staff, Mayor, and Council for consideration in future City policy and plan development and City operations. 2) City of Rossland residents to foster understanding of climate change adaptation and to promote the changes that may be necessary to ensure Rossland is a sustainable community in 2050. 3) CBT and other Communities interested in developing climate change adaptation plans as part of Rossland’s obligations under its Contribution Agreement to CBT and to provide as much information as possible to other communities that wish to undertake similar planning processes. The views contained in this document reflect the composite perspectives of the project Steering Committee with considerable input from City Staff. To the extent that it was possible to verify facts, this was done. However some of the views contained herein represent the opinions and best guesses of the Steering Committee. This report is organized into four major sections. The first provides an introduction and overview of the project. The second outlines in detail the climate changes Rossland is expected to experience. The third section outlines Rossland’s potential vulnerability and risk for the four priority issue areas. Finally the detailed action plans are presented in section four. Other Key Project Documents As outlined above, many documents were developed over the course of this project. The key findings of these other project documents are summarized in this report. These documents can be found on the Sustainability Commission website www.visionstoaction.ca in the climate change adaptation section. These key documents include: 1) Historical and Future Climate in Rossland, British Columbia – Prepared by the Adaptation to Climate Change Team (ACT) at Simon Fraser University. This document provides an overview of Rossland’s historical climate, spatial climate trends, climate variability and future climate projections for temperature, precipitation, hydrological projections, implications for biodiversity and agriculture and extreme weather. Note: Due to its size, this document is not available on the website. Hard copies can be obtained by contacting Jennifer Ellis at visionstoaction@rossland.ca or City Hall. Page 7 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report 2) Economic and Policy Outlook Rossland, British Columbia: Preliminary Report – Prepared by the Adaptation to Climate Change Team (ACT) at Simon Fraser University. This document reviews Rossland’s status and outlook with regard to key economic indicators including population, income, labour force, housing, transportation, industry, mining, tourism, land use, water and energy and Rossland’s existing policy frameworks including the Official Community Plan (OCP) and Strategic Sustainability Plan (SSP). 3) Local Observation Survey – Prepared by Cindy Hall, Project Assistant. This report reviews the quantitative and qualitative results of interviews with seventeen long-term Rossland residents with regard to their observations of changes in precipitation, temperature, seasons, water bodies, insects, birds, animal species, and plants. 4) Food Security Backgrounder – Prepared by Jennifer Ellis, Project Coordinator. This report was prepared to assess regional food security for the Phase 2 communities Rossland, Castlegar and Kaslo/Area D. It reviews the scientific literature with regard to the implications of climate change for global food production and assesses the potential for regional food self-sufficiency from both a biophysical and socioeconomic perspective. 5) Impact Maps for the Key Issue Areas – Prepared by the public at a public event held March 3, 2010. Impact mapping is a method of visualizing pathways of how changes in climate can lead to ecosystem responses and in turn community impacts. The brainstormed maps prepared at the public event provide an immediate visual of how Rossland could be impacted by various changes in climate. 6) The Food Security Vulnerability and Risk Group Assessment – Prepared by the Steering Committee and representatives of the Watershed Stewardship Task Force and Rossland REAL Food. This is a joint assessment of Rossland’s vulnerability and risk with respect to climate change impacts on international food production and local food production and served as the basis for the development of the priority actions for food. Original Socioeconomic Focus In keeping with the Sustainability Commission priority of promoting economic development established at its strategic planning session in October 2009, the original intent was to take a socioeconomic focus in Rossland’s Climate Change Adaptation project. The original project title was Adapting to Climate Change: A Socioeconomic Priority, and the Steering Committee focused many of its initial discussions on how climate change might affect Rossland from a socioeconomic perspective, both in terms of the potential impacts of climate change on Rossland’s key employers, and the potential costs associated with climate change impacts on infrastructure and other community assets. The Adapting to Climate Change Team at Simon Page 8 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report Fraser University was contracted to conduct a multiple accounts analysis of the economic impacts of climate change and a cost benefit analysis of potential adaptation measures to respond to climate change. For various reasons the socioeconomic focus did not come to fruition as expected. First, at the public impact mapping and priority setting event conducted in March 2010, Rossland’s major economic drivers were presented as one of the potential priority issue areas. However major economic drivers was not selected as a priority by the public at that event and in fact was ranked last by the public as a potential priority issue area. Second, adding the socioeconomic analysis to our project was acknowledged from the beginning to be a more challenging second layer to our analysis. In order to develop adaptation actions, it is necessary to consider the potential impacts of climate change on the biophysical environment. The potential community impacts including those of an economic nature, which may arise from these biophysical impacts are then assessed. This is a challenging undertaking. Our data and understanding with respect to biophysical impacts of climate change are at best uncertain, despite the presence of a considerable body of research. It is even harder to predict how the economy is going to be impacted by climate change and the resultant costs and benefits that may arise. The economic impact of climate change is an area of research that economists are just beginning to consider. As a result, given that Rossland’s major economic drivers were not ranked as a priority by community members, it was decided that adding the socioeconomic analysis to our project was too challenging based on our current state of knowledge and the resources available to the Steering Committee. While multiple accounts and cost benefit analyses could have been undertaken, the complexity of doing so, and the absence of accurate economic forecasts and other data on which to base the analyses would have limited our ability to produce meaningful quantitative results. As a result, the socioeconomic focus and title were dropped in favour of a more conventional analysis of biophysical and community impacts. The foregoing is not to suggest that the potential economic impacts of climate change are not important. They are, and were considered in the development of adaptation actions. We were just unable to undertake a quantitative assessment of them. Thus climate change adaptation remains a socioeconomic priority, as per the original name for this project. However the project highlighted that there are many other equally compelling reasons for adaptation actions. Why Climate Change Adaptation? Climate change adaptation is premised on the assumption that the climate changes outlined in detail in the second section of this report are going to occur and that Rossland and other communities around the world will have to adapt to those changes, including both risks and opportunities. It is differentiated from climate change mitigation, which is related to initiatives to Page 9 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report reduce our emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere in order to reduce further climate change. Mitigation is a critical strategy to help safeguard our planet for future generations, but mitigation alone will unlikely be enough. Climate change has been identified as the greatest “Climate change is one of the greatest environmental challenge of the 21st century. Even if economic and environmental challenges we were able to eliminate all greenhouse gas of our times. Not only does local emissions on a global level tomorrow, the climate government have an important role in would still continue to change due to past emissions. reducing greenhouse gas emissions to Over the past few decades, some Rosslanders have reduce the magnitude of global warming, already observed changes to the climate (see Local local government will also be at the Observation Survey) and changes that have already forefront of managing the impacts of occurred in the climate are well documented in the climate change.” ~ Malcolm Turnbull scientific literature for the Columbia Basin and the Australian Minister for the Environment world. Thus climate change adaptation actions and and Water Resources strategies are imperative no matter what future emissions scenario occurs. Adaptation must occur at all levels of government, including local governments. While the responsibility for broader policy regarding our response to climate change rests with provincial and federal governments, it is on the local level that many climate change impacts, such as potentially reduced water availability and wildfires, will be experienced. Thus local governments must be involved in adaptation initiatives. Climate change adaptation requires local governments to anticipate future climate changes that will affect municipal operations and community well-being. It involves making adjustments in planning and decisions now, to reduce the impacts and take advantage of the opportunities of climate changes in the future. While the impacts of climate change cannot be completely eliminated, their effects can be reduced through successful adaptation initiatives. Above all, the goal of climate change adaptation processes are to build resilience into communities and ensure they have considered and prepared for a wide range of potential futures and can respond to and recover from the impacts of climate change. Moreover, if the worst predictions with respect to climate change come to pass, those that exceed the conservative estimates outlined in this report, and we are not able to negotiate an international agreement to limit emissions, community resilience in the broader sense may become a critical determinant of how we adapt to the climate changes that may shape our future. The set of actions and strategies required to adapt to that future will undoubtedly be different than those contained within this document. However Resilience implies action, as in “building resilience”. To be resilient suggests an inner toughness: the strength, as its etymology tells us, to “jump back” to a previous state ~ Andrew McMurray, Alternatives Journal Page 10 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report the spirit of resilience will remain a critical component of adaptation approaches in that less optimistic future. It is in that spirit of fostering resilience and preparedness that this plan is offered. While climate change is one of the world’s greatest challenges, it also could be one of our greatest opportunities to undertake win-win no regrets actions that are good for sustainability and our communities, while safeguarding us from the worst impacts of climate change. Page 11 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report II: Critical Projected Climate Changes for Rossland This section reviews the projected climate changes expected to occur in Rossland over the next century that will likely have implications for Rossland’s water supply, infrastructure and built environment and energy supply and prices. In an effort to present this assessment in a sequential manner and to recognize that some climate change impacts are caused by more than one projected climate change, this section will identify the projected climate changes with respect to temperatures, hydrological regime and processes, and variability and extreme events. Discussion regarding the impacts that could occur in Rossland as a result of these projected climate changes is located in section three. “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level.” ~ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) There is little dispute that the global climate is changing. This section focuses on specific changes that are expected to occur in Rossland as a result of these broad global changes. Nevertheless, when considering the implications of climate change for Rossland, it is critical to keep the global projected climate changes in mind, particularly the ranges of projections, and underlying assumptions associated with those global projected climate changes. The projected climate changes presented here for Rossland likely represent a conservative scenario, consistent with the forecasts incorporated into the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Many of the IPCC forecasts for broad global systems hinge upon the stabilization of temperature increases at 2°C. Considerable debate occurred at the Steering Committee with respect to whether we should recognize and stress the very likely possibility that this stabilization may not occur, and the resultant feedback loops in global systems that may then result. The conclusions presented in this report rely heavily on the emissions scenarios created by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007a). The IPCC is the foremost international authority on climate change science, but the science contained therein is now somewhat dated. Thus the Steering Committee felt it was critical to outline some of the caveats associated with the IPCC models. The Fourth IPCC Assessment Report was issued in 2007, and is based on peer-reviewed literature. The timing of publication cycles means, in practical terms, that any empirical observations or modeling undertaken after mid-2006 could not be considered. Since that time there has been a wealth of new science that has led us to a more pessimistic judgment of the Page 12 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report likely emissions scenarios and resulting climate changes (UNEP, 2009; Levin and Tirpak, 2009; Richardson et al, 2009). Highlights include: Positive feedback mechanisms that were theoretically posited as significant by 2007 have since been confirmed as actually occurring. These include the thawing of the Canadian and Siberian permafrost, which emits enormous quantities of the powerful GHG methane (Schuur et al., 2008)1 and the thawing and release of methane from under-sea crystal-like formations (clathrates) in which an enormous amount of the gas is trapped by pressure and cool temperatures. The rapid opening up of the arctic sea ice is another such mechanism, since the dark water absorbs heat that used to be reflected by ice and snow. All of these mechanisms would lead to more rapid and significant temperature changes than predicted. The IPCC figures did not take account of the increased speed of ice flow from the Greenland and Antarctic glaciers, since those observations were not yet complete and the dynamics not well understood. We now know that many of those glaciers flowing into the sea at up to double their previous rates. The implication is a doubling or almost tripling of the estimated sea-level rise from all sources by the end of the century (Lemonick, 2009; Levin and Tirpak 2008; Allison et al. 2009). Secondly, it should be highlighted that through concerted action we should in theory be able to limit climate change to something like a 2oC increase in global average temperatures—the negotiating objective for a number of countries including the EU-27. However, the likelihood of that is low. Even in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report—which, as noted above, may be too optimistic —only the most optimistic of the six emission scenarios delivered that result as a best estimate, while the other five ranged from 2.5o to 4o increases (IPCC, 2007a) The reality is that we are nowhere near agreement at the international or national levels on the kinds of actions that would get us to a 2o future. The pledges contained in the Copenhagen Accord—agreed to by key emitters in December 2009—in fact gives us a 50% chance of exceeding a 3o temperature rise (Rogelj et al., 2010). And recent negotiations actually show that countries are quickly backing away from even those commitments (IISD, 2010). Above 3oC, there is widespread agreement in the scientific community that we are looking at “serious risk of large scale, irreversible system disruption” (ISSC, 2005). Climate change based on the current emissions reduction commitments does not look like a smooth set of predictable changes. It is, rather, a set of unpredictable discontinuities – rapid shifts to new equilibrium states driving crises in global ecological and socio-economic systems (such as trade and investment) to which adaptation will be challenging at best. In the end, this analysis assumes the most conservative case possible in light of the evidence in front of us. This is not because we are unconvinced by the thrust of the evidence toward more 1 They estimate that the stock of carbon locked in the permafrost is about double that contained in the atmosphere. Page 13 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report dire predictions, but because we are pragmatic in our expectations about our ability to convince others as well. The actions recommended herein are useful nonetheless, and we hope that in future work of this type we can explore the implications of scenarios that better reflect the growing consensus on the likely condition of Rossland in a world affected by climate change. Moreover it is critical to stress that even if the most optimistic of emissions reduction scenarios are achieved and the world is able to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, temperatures in BC are still projected to rise by 1oC due to past emissions. This is still a significant increase, underscoring the need for climate change adaptation strategies no matter what future emissions scenario occurs. With those caveats in mind, the following sections outline the expected climate changes for temperatures, hydrological regimes, variability and extreme events identified in the scientific literature. Temperatures Temperatures have and will likely continue to increase overall. Increases are projected for mean, minimum and maximum temperatures for BC. Increases in annual daily minimum temperatures (+1.7°C), daily maximum temperatures (+0.6°C) and daily mean temperatures (+1.2°C) have already been observed on a provincial basis (Rodenhuis et al., 2009). An estimate based on a multi-model ensemble projects average annual temperature of +1.7°C in BC and of +2.0 °C in the Columbia Basin by 2050 compared to the baseline 1961-1990 climate (Lane et al., 2009; Rodenhuis et al. 2009). Summer temperatures in the Columbia Basin are projected to rise by 2.3°C by 2050, higher than the projected provincial summer temperature increase of 1.8°C by 2050 (Lane et al., 2009). It is important to note that these projected increases provide only averages and can mask a lot of ups and downs. Increases in average temperatures can occur because the hotter days get hotter or because the cooler days become less cool. The difference between these scenarios has implications for what communities must adapt to and cannot be easily discerned from the existing models. Winter temperature increases will likely result in a greater frequency of daily low temperatures of 0°C. Rossland already has mild winters compared to many interior locations. As a result, there are already many days in which the temperature hovers around or just below 0°C. An increase in winter mean temperatures even by a small amount could result in an increased incidence of freeze thaw cycles. According to the Weather Network historical data, Page 14 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report Castlegar’s temperature hovers around 0°C 2 to 4 days per month from November through March. The number of growing degree days will likely increase. Growing degree days are an heuristic device that is utilized to forecast plant growth. Growing degree days are calculated each day as the mean temperature minus the base temperature (or the temperature below which plant growth is zero). Growing degree days are accumulated by adding the growing degree contribution of each day as the season progresses. Projections for the Columbia Basin, based on a 5oC base temperature, forecast an increase in growing degree days from the baseline of around 1,500 (1961 to 1990) to around 2,000 (2041 to 2070) (Werner and Murdock, 2010). Hydrological Regime and Processes Precipitation will likely increase. Provincially, precipitation increased 22% from 1900-2005 (Rodenhuis et al., 2009) Downscaled Global Climate Models (GCMs) for BC estimate that, by 2050, the province will likely be about 6% wetter than the baseline period of 1961-1990. Most of the increase in precipitation is projected to occur in the winter. Summers are expected to be 3% drier than the baseline period. But these are provincial projections and there is up to 13% regional variation in the average precipitation across BC. Historically, mean annual precipitation in Rossland area has ranged from 750-1,250 mm from 1900 to 2004 (PCIC, 2010). This is based on low resolution provincial scale maps but likely is within the range of historical precipitation. Environment Canada station data for Rossland shows that total precipitation increased slightly from 1905-1998. Columbia Basin modeling suggests that the Basin will be 10.5% wetter than the baseline measurements (~1000 mm) by the 2050s (Murdock and Werner, 2010). Climate modeling projects less snowfall in the Columbia Basin. Werner et al., (2007) estimate that snowfall has declined 6% between 1913 and 2002 for the Columbia Basin. The amount of snowfall is dictated by the amount of precipitation (expected to increase) and the degree to which mid-winter temperatures hover around freezing (Murdock et al., 2007). Thus snowfall is expected to decrease more at the Coast and less in the interior. According to Environment Canada station data, Rossland has experienced decreasing annual snowfall since the 1970s. However Rossland is milder than some interior locations, but is located at higher elevation than many communities in the southern interior and therefore the extent to which winter temperatures are likely to exceed freezing will be a critical determinant of snowfall versus Page 15 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report rainfall levels. Low resolution maps based on a single Regional Climate Model for the Columbia Basin suggest that snowfall in Rossland will likely decrease from 250 to 500 mm in the baseline period (1961 to 1990) to 0 to 205 mm by the 2050s (Murdock and Werner, 2010). Snowpack in BC overall is projected to decrease. An 18% decline in snowpack is projected by the 2050s, with stronger effects in the mountains (Murdock et al., 2007). Snowpack must be distinguished from snowfall. Snowfall refers to the amount of precipitation falling as snow, whereas snowpack refers to snow accumulation. Snowpack reduction is expected to be more significant in the Coastal Mountains (Rodenhuis et al., 2009) and the geographical complexity of mountains prevents a simple interpretation of results. It is believed that April 1 snowpack in the Basin has decreased from 1950 to 1997 with some fairly significant reductions in the Pacific portion of the Basin in the United States (Murdock et al., 2007). An IPCC study indicates that, for every degree Celsius increase in temperature, the snowline could rise about 150 m. In the European Alps, a projected 4°C shift in winter temperatures is predicted to result in a 50% decrease in snow duration at altitudes of 2000m and a 95% reduction at altitudes less than 1000m (IPCC, 2007b). Rossland is at an elevation of 1036m. April 1st snowpack in the Canadian portion of the Columbia Basin is projected to decrease by 3.6% by the 2020s and 11.5% by the 2040s on average in the entire Basin (Murdock et al., 2007). Effects will likely be larger in lower elevation areas. Thus Rossland may experience slightly less than the projected average decrease. Rossland is expected to experience earlier melt run-off over a shorter time period, and lower mid to late summer flows that extend over longer periods. Studies show that spring run-off was already occurring 20 days earlier in the Columbia Basin in the period from 1984 to 1995 compared to 1970 to 1983 (Murdock et al., 2007). It is projected that by 2050, many rivers will likely be running 15-40 days earlier than in the period from 1984 to 1995 and by 2100 melt could occur an additional 30-40 days earlier (NRCan, 2007). These changes could create enhanced potential for winter and spring floods, landslides and debris torrents and insufficient summer flows (Murdock et al., 2007). Because there is expected to be less snowpack, these spring runoffs will also likely extend over a shorter period of time thereby contributing to reduced summer flows. As stated above, reduced summer flows will likely also occur as a result of reduced summer precipitation. In the Columbia Basin, models suggest that while overall run-off could be 85 to 110% of base case flows, summer run-off (April through September) could decrease to 75 to 90% of the base case flow (Rodenhuis et al., 2009). It is important to note that most of the studies that have confirmed earlier spring run-off have focused on rivers like the Columbia rather than high elevation streams. Nevertheless, the Columbia is fed by high elevation streams and it is expected that Topping, Hanna and South Murphy Creeks in the Rossland area will likely reach peak flow earlier in the spring, with lower flows for longer periods during the summer. Page 16 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report Glaciers play a crucial role in determining low flows for 48% of British Columbia’s rivers. In the Columbia Basin, glaciers feed 10 to 20% of annual flows and 30% of summer flows, so changes in melt rates could amplify summer droughts in some areas of the Basin (NRCan, 2007). Rossland does not rely on glacier-fed flows for its water resources so this does not pose a direct threat to the City, though it may affect provincial electricity prices (see Energy section). Increased evapotranspiration and evaporation will likely contribute to reduced soil moisture, which will likely reduce summer flows further. It is likely that there will be increased evaporation and evapotranspiration in the spring as a result of earlier snowmelt and warmer spring temperatures (Murdock et al., 2007). Increased evaporation and evapotranspiration will likely reduce soil moisture, which will reduce summer streamflows (because more water will be absorbed into the ground) (Murdock et al., 2007). This is also likely to contribute to potential increases in the incidence of water shortages and droughts. It is critical to note that the impacts of a changing climate on the hydrological regime (rain, snow and ice) and on hydrological processes (streamflow, evaporation) are all intertwined and many initial impacts, such as lower summer flows could have further hydrological effects, such as increased stream temperatures, and lower groundwater recharge rates and in turn broader ecosystem effects, such as increased fish and animal morbidity. This section has attempted to highlight some of the main water supply changes arising from climate change, but the complexity of the hydrological system should always be kept in mind. Variability and Extreme Events There are no detailed projections for historical or future potential changes in extreme weather events for the Basin (Murdock et al., 2007). The following information is based on sources outside the Canadian Columbia Basin. There will likely be increased variability in precipitation and increased incidence of both droughts and heavy rainfall events. It is believed that the frequency and severity of drought and heavy rainfall events is increasing – however lack of analysis regarding the occurrence of these events in the past means that these events cannot necessarily be connected to climate change (Murdock et al., 2007). Nevertheless the IPCC believes that in mid to high latitude areas in the Northern Hemisphere the proportion of annual precipitation falling in heavy and extreme events has increased by 2 to 4% (Murdock et al., 2007). As noted above with respect to precipitation, climate models also predict that precipitation will likely be subject to greater seasonal variability. Although annual precipitation will likely increase, Page 17 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report less precipitation will likely fall in the summer, potentially increasing the incidence of drought. Drought is harder to forecast as there is no evidence of increases in drought events in Southern BC over the last century (Murdock et al., 2007). However the IPCC does believe that there is greater risk of summer drought for continental land areas in the next century (Murdock et al., 2007). Further, the more the average precipitation falls in extreme events, the less able that moisture is to be retained and used to prevent moisture stress and drought. Temperature extremes will likely increase in incidence. The projected mean temperature increases mask the potential that there may be more variability in temperatures. Extreme weather events including snowstorms, hailstorms, and windstorms will likely increase. The provincial data indicates that, from 2003-2005, economic losses associated with extreme events rose dramatically, in particular due to wildfire, freezing rain and rain-on-snow events that led to flooding (NRCan, 2007). Temperature increases are also expected to cause an increase in the intensity and frequency of windstorms (Nielson, 2007). BC currently spends an average of $86 million per year on natural disaster response, including wildfires, compared to an average of $10 million from 1999-2002 (NRCan, 2007). However 1999 to 2002 were particularly low cost wildfire years. The costs of fighting wildfires in an individual year can be dramatically higher. According to the Ministry of Forests (2010), wildfire costs were as high as $400 million in 2009 and $371.2 million in 2003, while the ten year average from 1998 to 2008 was $115.9 million. While Rossland lacks detailed historical data and high-resolution future projections for extreme weather events related to climate change (Rodenhuis et al., 2009), it is expected that they will increase. Two notable windstorms have occurred in Rossland in the last few years, one in 2007 and one in 2008. The 2008 windstorm resulted in the loss of 50 trees within the City boundaries. Higher summer temperatures, summer drought, decreased soil moisture and potential increased tree mortality due to biogeoclimatic zone shifts and pests could increase the incidence of forest fires. BC is already experiencing more total area burned by wildfires, longer fires seasons and more critical fire weather days. A variety of factors such as forest/structural fuels, topography and weather and new policies of fuel management outlined in the City’s Community Wildfire Protection Plan put Rossland at a lower risk for catastrophic wildfires than in some other areas of the province. However issues such as beetle kill and forest morbidity could increase this risk, and climate change will likely increase the chances of forest fires in the Rossland area. Summary The expected climate changes for Rossland to 2050 can be summarized as follows: Increases in mean, maximum and minimum temperatures; Page 18 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report Increases in overall precipitation but decreases in precipitation in the summer; Decreases in snowpack; Earlier spring run-off, and lower summer flows for longer periods; Increases in extreme events, including heavy precipitation events, drought and windstorms; and Increased variability in temperatures and precipitation. How all of these projected changes manifest over the years and how they affect Rossland is still subject to considerable uncertainty and complexity. Of all the expected changes, the increases in extreme events and variability might be the most challenging to plan for. The interaction among the projected changes, and which ones occur to what extent each year will matter to day to day life in Rossland. Decreased snowpack may be of less consequence if spring temperatures remain colder resulting in a more gradual run-off. The most significant challenges may occur in the years in which there are greater extremes and/or the various expected climate changes occur in combination to produce a worst-case scenario. Page 19 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report III: Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Assessing vulnerability and risk is a standard component of most climate change adaptation projects and there are many methodologies available for doing so including both vulnerability focused assessments, risk focused assessments and hybrid assessments that combine both risk and vulnerability (See Zukiwsky, 2010). The intent is to undertake an impartial review of the vulnerability and risks associated with potential climate change impacts and establish priority actions based on a clear ranking of vulnerability and risk. Steps The steps for a vulnerability and risk assessment for climate change adaptation as outlined by the Center for Science in the Earth System et al., (2007) often referred to as the ICLEI Guidebook for local governments were selected for utilization in Rossland. According to the ICLEI Guidebook the seven steps in a vulnerability and risk assessment are as follows: 1. Complete Sensitivity Analysis 2. Evaluate Adaptive Capacity 3. Assess Vulnerability 4. Consider Consequence 5. Estimate Probability 6. Assess Risk This is the Vulnerability Assessment Also known as “finding the weak spots” This is the Risk Assessment Also known as “what to pay attention to first” 7. Establish Priority Risks and Opportunities Low Vulnerability High Vulnerability High Risk MAY be priority action planning area SHOULD be a priority action planning area Low Risk UNLIKELY to be a priority action planning area MAY be a priority action planning area Definitions Page 20 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report Vulnerability Assessment Sensitivity – The degree to which a built, natural, or human system is directly or indirectly affected by changes in climate. 'Will the systems associated with this planning area be significantly affected by projected changes in climate?' If the system is likely to be affected as a result of projected climate change, it should be considered sensitive to climate change." ~Climate Impacts Group. Questions to ask in considering sensitivity are: How exposed is the system? Is it subject to existing stress i.e. are demand and supply already almost equal? Does the system have impact thresholds? Sensitivity can be: Low: System unlikely to be significantly affected by changes in climate. Moderate: System may be affected by changes in climate. High: System will likely be affected by changes in climate. Adaptive Capacity – Ability of built, natural and human systems to accommodate or adjust to changes in climate, moderate potential damages, cope with consequences or take advantage of opportunities with minimum disruption or minimum additional cost. A community might already be taking actions to accommodate changes in climate or may be able to do so easily with minimal cost. If so, the community’s adaptive capacity is high. Adaptive capacity can be: Low: Actions are difficult and costly. Moderate: Actions possible with some disruptions and/or costs. High: Actions possible with minimum disruptions and cost. Vulnerability = Sensitivity X Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability – Degree to which a system is susceptible to harm from climate change due to its sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Vulnerability can be: Low: If sensitivity is low and adaptive capacity is low or high, or if sensitivity is high and adaptive capacity is also high. Moderate: If sensitivity is moderate and adaptive capacity is moderate. High: If sensitivity is high and adaptive capacity is low. Risk Assessment Page 21 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report Consequence – The seriousness or degree to which a community would be affected if the identified climate stress occurred. Questions to consider in assessing consequence are: How costly would the impact be? Would it result in potential loss of life? How many people would be affected? Would there be significant property damage or ecosystem damage? Would it result in loss of livelihood? Consequence can be: Low: Minor costs or inconvenience are possible. Very unlikely that loss of life or livelihood, large financial costs to the municipality or community, or significant property or ecosystem damage would occur. Moderate: Moderate costs or significance inconvenience are possible. Unlikely that loss of life or livelihood, large financial costs to the municipality or community, or significant property or ecosystem damage would occur. High: Possible or probable loss of life or livelihood, large financial costs to the municipality or community, or significant property or ecosystem damage. Probability – The likelihood that the identified climate stress, resulting in harm to a system, will occur and the frequency of occurrence. Some climate change impacts such as higher temperatures are virtually certain and will occur most years, while others such as rainstorms severe enough to cause flooding are less certain and may only occur every 10 years. In assessing probability it is important to note whether the event will be ongoing or a single event. Probability can be: Low: Probability of an ongoing or single event less than 30%; Potential frequency of occurrence of a single event once every 30+ years. Moderate: Probability of an ongoing or single event between 30 and 60%; Potential frequency of occurrence of a single event once every 5 to 30 years. High: Probability of an ongoing or single event greater than 60%; Potential frequency of occurrence of single events once every <5 years to several times a year. Risk = Consequence X Probability Risk – Degree to which a system is susceptible to harm from a particular climate change stress due to the probability and consequences of this stress. Risk can be: Low: If consequence is low and probability is low, or if consequence is low and probability is moderate. Moderate: If consequence is moderate and probability is moderate, if consequence is high and probability is low, or if consequence is low and probability is high. Page 22 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report High: If consequence is high and probability is high, or if consequence is high and probability is moderate. Rossland’s Approach The approaches outlined above were undertaken in the form of a group vulnerability and risk assessment for food security (See Food Vulnerability and Risk Assessment – www.visionstoaction.ca). This vulnerability and risk assessment was utilized to form the basis of the food security action planning. The same approach was undertaken for water, infrastructure and energy by ACT at Simon Fraser University. However the Steering Committee felt that the results did not sufficiently capture the local context. Redoing the vulnerability and risk assessments as a group, in the same manner that the food security vulnerability and risk assessment were completed, was considered. Nevertheless, due to the limited time and budget remaining for the project, it was decided that action planning would be undertaken for water, infrastructure and energy utilizing a vulnerability and risk backgrounder prepared by the Coordinator. While the backgrounder does not explicitly evaluate vulnerability and risk in the same manner that an assessment does, it does provide many of the critical facts that would form the basis for a vulnerability and risk assessment. Moreover, it was felt that Steering Committee members and other participants in the action planning process would carry their own perceptions of vulnerability and risk into the action planning process. Page 23 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report Priority Area 1: Infrastructure and Built Environment Infrastructure and the built environment will be forced to withstand many different stresses as a result of the projected climate changes identified in section one, particularly, temperature changes, heavy precipitation events, and other extreme weather events. This section first reviews Rossland’s current non-climate related infrastructure and built environment stresses and opportunities and then considers the additional challenges that climate change could impose. Water related infrastructure, such as storm-sewers, are considered only as they affect flooding and therefore cause damage to other infrastructure, rather than impacts on water supply, which were considered in the previous section. Infrastructure is often designed for a long life span, ranging up to 50 years for water supply infrastructure and sewers and over 100 years for buildings and bridges (Infrastructure Canada, 2006). These long life spans create a significant challenge for climate change adaptation, as often it is not realistic to replace infrastructure to address potential future climate change impacts. Nevertheless, infrastructure needs regular upgrading and refurbishment, and much of the municipal infrastructure in Canada is aging and requires replacement. Thus, there is an opportunity to incorporate and ‘mainstream’ climate change adaptation as a routine element of infrastructure design (Infrastructure Canada, 2006). Current and Future Non-Climate Related Stresses and Opportunities City-wide Infrastructure Much of Rossland’s infrastructure and built environment is old and there are limited funds available for upgrading them. Rossland is currently undertaking an infrastructure planning process. While some infrastructure, such as the Ophir Reservoir and the water treatment plant is relatively new other infrastructure such as the storm-sewer system, roads, water pipes, buildings, and sewer system are relatively old and will need upgrades even in the absence of climate change. These infrastructure upgrades are expected to be very costly and government grants and borrowing will be required to undertake them. The City also has regional infrastructure commitments and is part of the liquid waste management planning process with Warfield and Trail. Rossland’s required commitments to these regional Page 24 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report infrastructure upgrades could mitigate against having the funds available for local upgrades. The availability of government grants will play a key role in determining when infrastructure upgrades occur. Nevertheless, the City is doing what it can as it is financially able to do so. Some infrastructure upgrades are occurring in 2010/2011 including the Columbia Avenue resurfacing and concurrent storm sewer upgrades. These projects are discussed in more detail below. Rossland’s geography is characterized by steep slopes that could be vulnerable to landslides, but professional assessment and planning is required before development occurs. Much of Rossland’s development occurs on slopes of between a 10-30% grade, and slopes over 30% grade also characterize a large portion of the City. Rossland’s Official Community Plan (OCP) requires that development on all “lands with slopes in excess of 30%, shall be required to submit a report prepared by a qualified professional, prior to the removal of trees or slope alteration” (City of Rossland, 2008). Rossland has a comprehensive Emergency Plan that was prepared in 2009. The Emergency Plan identifies key risks, including climate-related issues, assesses critical risk areas, and outlines immediate response measures, as well as long-term remediation measures. The City has also prepared an Evacuation Plan. However the Emergency and Evacuation Plans have not yet been tested in a mock or real emergency to test their effectiveness. Rossland has an Emergency Program Coordinator, and City staff members have been fully trained in roles and responsibilities in an emergency, including site-specific training for some Public Works staff. Work is underway to integrate Rossland’s Emergency Plan with those of Red Mountain Resort, Teck and the City of Trail. Rossland has a Community Wildfire Protection Plan, which was completed in 2009. The Community Wildfire Protection Plan assesses the risk from a wildland-urban interface fire to the City of Rossland and identifies the measures necessary to mitigate those risks. The measures in the Protection Plan are being implemented. Funding for fuel clearing has been acquired through the Regional District and Province and several areas in the interface have been identified for brush clearing, which will occur this summer. Detailed treatment prescriptions have been prepared for 23 hectares of City owned land that has been designated as a priority area. Public consultation will be undertaken before the treatment occurs. The treatment will include thinning from below, removal of dead and discarded trees and the removal of ladder fuels and surface debris. Many of the priority treatment areas are adjacent to Rossland’s water reservoir, which will help promote watershed protection. Roads Rossland’s roadways are aging. Rossland has under 40 kilometres (km) of paved roads, not including Red Mountain. The City is currently undertaking a pavement condition assessment. Thirty km have been identified for assessment while the remaining 10 km have already been Page 25 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report identified as not requiring assessment, due to deterioration. Only 12 km of the 40 have been paved in last 20 years, which means over 50 percent are due for replacement. Some of that 28 km of older pavement is in adequate condition and might last another 5 to 10 years because it was well built, is on a hill with good run-off or doesn’t have a lot of traffic. The assessment will result in a priority matrix outlining an order for repairing the roads and all the assets underneath (road bed, storm-water, sewer). The assessment will be completed before 2011. Rossland’s current roadway maintenance projects are limited by budget. Maintenance and roadway repair is typically done on a capital project basis. Approximately 100 meters per year is currently replaced. Expenses for resurfacing often include additional infrastructure upgrades such as sewer, sidewalk or storm-water system upgrades. If well maintained, under current conditions, asphalt has a lifespan of approximately 25-30 years. Paving 15 km of roads will cost $15 million or $1000/metre. It is not anticipated that all of the infrastructure upgrades that are required in Rossland will be affordable over the next 20 years – managing the deterioration of infrastructure may become the priority rather than upgrading it. Rossland is currently preparing an infrastructure upgrade plan that will outline how roads will be upgraded over the next several years. Buildings and Residences Rossland’s housing stock is aging. Dwellings built before 1945 make up approximately 45% of the houses, while another 20% were built between 1945 and 1960. Much of the older housing stock was built with hand-mixed concrete, which is more porous than aggregate concrete, and some is built on creek beds that may still direct water during the spring melt season when flow is at its peak. In addition many of the older homes were built without foundations and the basements were dug out later using concrete walls sitting on concrete slab which was poured first creating a crack at the bottom, which allows for seepage. Nevertheless the building quality of Rossland’s housing stock varies significantly. Some pre-1945 houses are better built than the ones between 1945 and 1960 due to the use of better building materials. The Building Code was not established until 1977. As a result, the age of the house is not the only factor that must be considered in evaluating its vulnerability to climate change factors. Changes in climate can dramatically impact housing stock. For example, a 25% increase in peak wind speed can cause a 6.5-fold increase in damage claims to buildings (Nielson, 2007). Current building codes in Rossland include high load bearing requirements on roofs although earlier built housing stock may not meet specifications. Building codes for new construction in Rossland set the roof load bearing at 159 pounds per square foot (psf) in town and 172 psf at Red Mountain. The National Building Code requires load bearings of 50 psf. As stated above, dwellings built before 1945 make up approximately 45% of the houses, while another 20% were built between 1945 and 1960, meaning that 65% of the City’s housing stock may not meet these specifications. Page 26 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report Rossland residents are not currently required to install backflow prevention systems. Homes without such systems are more sensitive to damage caused by wet conditions, although this precaution may not be required in all houses depending on their elevation vis a vis that of the sewer pipes. This issue is being partially addressed via upcoming by-laws designed to improve planning and regulation for perimeter drainage. There is a tension between new housing standards and increasing taxes and maintaining affordability, but in some cases this may be just a perceived tension. A key element of Rossland’s attractiveness as a community relates to the relative affordability of housing relative to places such as Vancouver or Calgary. Incorporating any additional regulations on building that significantly increase the cost of building, or increasing taxes to pay for infrastructure upgrades may be challenging in light of the need to maintain affordability. Nevertheless, some changes in building requirements, such as perimeter drainage or other requirements for more on-site water retention, do not significantly increase the cost of building and increases the lifetime of the building by reducing water damage, as well as achieving broader municipal infrastructure maintenance goals. The Planning Department is already evaluating the viability of many of these affordable changes in housing standards. In some cases, however, the perception of greater cost must be addressed. Storm-sewers, Culverts and Sewers Rossland currently has limited flood risk due to steep slopes but the storm-sewer system is stressed during high storm flows. Rossland’s storm-sewer system is very limited. The inlet capacity on the storm-sewer pipes that do exist, which allows for storm-water drainage and reduces risk of flash floods, is limited. To date the storm-sewer pipes are generally adequate and flow quickly due to Rossland’s steep grades. Some locations currently experience stormwater overflows, but these are generally not an issue at present precipitation levels. The wastewater system is seriously stressed by inflow and infiltration. Inflow and infiltration of storm and melt water into sewer pipes, and in particular the sewer interceptor line to Trail, presents a significant challenge. In the spring, sewer pipe flow more than doubles as a result of this inflow and infiltration. Much of the infiltration occurs when groundwater comes into the joints or cracks in the sewer pipes. However many residents and commercial operations dispose of basement spring groundwater flow through sump pumps pumped into sewer pipes or roof gutter water flowing directly into the sewer pipes, especially on Columbia Avenue. One of the main challenges is that it is not clear where storm-water should go, as Rossland does not have a complete storm-water drainage network. Rossland is working on a storm-water separation plan for the downtown core in 2010-2011 to reduce the amount of water that ends up in the wastewater system. However this will just apply to the downtown core. Inflow and infiltration, exacerbated by the significant number of roots blocking sewer pipes, can cause sewer backups into residences and other buildings. The interceptor line to Trail has already experienced overflows and needs to be further examined for replacement based on Page 27 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report population projections. Inflow and infiltration also increases wastewater treatment expenses for Rossland and impacts the regional district, which shares wastewater infrastructure with Rossland. Currently Rossland pays an agreed upon percentage, established in 1967, of the sewage treatment costs. This service agreement is under review but Trail and Rossland have been unable to reach an agreement, due to challenges acquiring accurate flow volumes. The Regional District could start charging Rossland a percentage based on flow, which could result in significant increase in costs for the municipality. Replacing the sewer pipes is part of the infrastructure plan. The order in which segments of the sewer in Rossland will be replaced will be established in the infrastructure plan. At this time, it is planned that sewers will be fixed at the same time as the priority roads. At some point the sewer not under the roads may be replaced, but there is no date set for that. There is also currently no set date for the replacement or upgrading of the interceptor line to Trail. Managing storm-water through on-site water retention is becoming a higher priority. Onsite water retention measures, such as permeable driveways, driveways that divert water onto lawns and perimeter drains can reduce the need for costly infrastructure upgrades such as storm-sewers. The Planning Department is currently developing systems that promote this type of on-site water retention. Future Climate Change Infrastructure Impacts for Rossland Although they are divided into sections specific to certain infrastructure for the sake of clarity, several of the infrastructure impacts that could result from projected climate changes could cascade into other infrastructure damages. For example, failure of a culvert could cascade into damage to buildings and roads. This is particularly true with respect to storm-sewers, culverts and sewer systems. City-wide Infrastructure Winter rains, early onset and rapid spring melt, increased frequency of heavy rainfall events and increased rain-on-snow events may increase the probability of landslides and debris torrents damaging roads, buildings and other city infrastructure and potentially resulting in loss of life. Extreme weather events such as snowstorms, forest fires, windstorms or heavy rainstorms could damage roads, buildings and other city infrastructure, as well as private property, and potentially result in loss of life. Buildings and Residences Page 28 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report Rain on snow events and heavier wetter snow may build up on roofs and result in structural failure, particularly of older housing stock, and other weight-bearing infrastructure. An increased incidence of freeze-thaw cycles could stress roofs, building foundations, driveways, retaining walls and shallowly buried pipes. More winter precipitation in the form of rain that runs off roofs could reduce stress on roofs and reduce costs of winter snow removal on buildings. Storm-sewers, Culverts and Sewers Increased overall precipitation, more rapid runoff as well as more frequent heavy rainfall events and storm-sewer backups could increase the incidence of small floods, particularly basement floods, resulting in property damage. Increased overall precipitation, more rapid spring runoff or heavy precipitation events could cause more storm-water to infiltrate the wastewater system causing residential sewer back up and sewer overflows. A major precipitation event could cause the culvert along Trail Creek to give way, resulting in property damage along Cook Avenue. Roads Increased winter temperatures could reduce snow removal costs and road damage as well as clean up from salt and gravel. More frequent freeze-thaw cycles could damage pavement and asphalt, decreasing their lifespan and causing cracking and potholes, while higher summer temperatures may cause buckling or rutting, particularly on high-traffic routes requiring more frequent and potentially more expensive repaving and more road shut downs and may require investment in asphalt that exhibit higher tolerance to freeze-thaw cycles as well as heat and surface stress. Increased overall precipitation, more rapid spring run off, heavy precipitation events and or storm-sewer backups might cause road floods and damage the foundations beneath roadways. A major precipitation event could cause the culvert along Trail Creek to give way, resulting in roadway damage along Cook Avenue. Water Pipes Reduced insulation from snow cover could cause water pipes to more easily freeze and burst in cold snaps. Increased winter temperatures could reduce the incidence of water pipes freezing. Page 29 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report Summary Many of the expected climate change impacts on infrastructure will manifest in the form of increased costs to residents, either through property damage or upgrades or impacts on taxes, and contribute to the overall deterioration of Rossland’s infrastructure. A few expected climate changes, such as warmer winter temperatures and reduced snowfall, may possibly reduce infrastructure maintenance costs. In most cases, infrastructure impacts will be minor, such as basement floods, increased cracking of road pavement and freezing of water pipes, and will contribute to the continued aging and degradation of Rossland’s infrastructure. However some impacts, especially those resulting from extreme events such as forest fires, windstorms and heavy precipitation, while potentially less frequent, could cause significant infrastructure damage, including loss of life. Nevertheless, in evaluating how to address these climate change risks, one must consider the costs associated with eliminating or reducing the risks and the likelihood of success, versus the probability of the event occurring. Although much of Rossland’s infrastructure is being evaluated for upgrading, as part of the Infrastructure Plan and climate change considerations can be incorporated into those upgrades, the fiscal reality for the City and for other levels of government that fund infrastructure upgrades, is that not all of the necessary or desired infrastructure upgrades are likely to occur in the next 20 years. Thus it may not be a wise adaptation strategy to focus exclusively on addressing potential climate change impacts through the incorporation of climate change considerations into infrastructure upgrades. Some of the climate change impacts will have to be adapted to through approaches other than infrastructure upgrades. Some of these potential approaches, such as greater on-site water retention practices, have already been outlined above. A key adaptation action may be to develop a database of less expensive actions that could reduce the need for infrastructure upgrades or expansion, such as demand-side water management, or policies that prevent the diversion of basement waters into the wastewater system. Page 30 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report Priority Area 2: Water Supply Rossland’s water supply will likely be affected in multiple ways by the projected climate changes outlined in the previous section, particularly changes in precipitation patterns and hydrological flow regimes. This section first outlines the current and future non-climate related stresses and opportunities, to provide an overview of Rossland’s water situation in the absence of climate change. Then some of the main water related impacts that Rossland could experience as a result of climate change are examined. This section examines water related infrastructure for water supply. Flooding is addressed in the next section. Current and Future Non-Climate Related Stresses and Opportunities Supply Rossland has well developed water infrastructure with a historically consistent level of supply. Rossland’s water supply is 100% gravity-fed surface water from the Topping, Hanna and Murphy Creeks. Observations of overflow rates as well as consumption versus overflow data suggest that stream flow rates in Rossland range from 2,000 cubic meters per day during the dry summer months to 50,000 cubic meters per day during the spring thaw. Two reservoirs (Ophir and Star Gulch) serve Rossland and have a combined capacity of 285,000 cubic metres (Star Gulch at 120,000 cubic metres and Ophir at 165,000 cubic metres). Rossland’s reservoirs can fill within 40 days if they are empty during the spring melt but at this point in time remain full to overflowing year round with the exception of a few weeks in late August. September typically brings cooler wetter weather that allows the reservoirs to rebound to capacity. Creek flow continues during the winter at about 2,000 cubic metres per day. Currently, the timing of peak flow matches the timing of the summer rise in demand fairly well, allowing for the increased rate of inflow into the reservoirs to be utilized as it is arriving, reducing reservoir overflow. The reservoirs currently offer enough storage to accommodate demand. Downstream flows in Rossland’s water supply creeks are limited in summer months. During low summer flow months, all of the water from Topping, Hanna and Murphy Creeks is Page 31 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report captured, with any reservoir overflow directed back into Topping Creek, leaving no downstream flows in Hanna and Murphy Creeks. Changes to provincial water policy are currently being considered under BC’s Water Act Modernization process in 2010, including riparian ecosystem maintenance. It is possible that resulting policy changes may affect Rossland’s ability to divert water from one creek to another, and to leave no downstream flows in two creeks during the summer months. The issue of leaving no downstream flows for ecosystems should potentially be addressed regardless of provincial legislation. Rossland has limited water flow monitoring. Currently, manual flow monitoring is employed on Rossland’s creeks. Properly assessing available supply through creek monitoring, stream gauges and flow metering would provide better data on the volume of water available to Rossland and better inform policy. Demand Rossland’s historical water usage is compared to high national averages. Water consumption remains stable for most of the year at about 2000 cubic metres per day, and then rises to 3500 to 5500 cubic metres per day in July and August. Flow volumes from Rossland’s treatment plant suggest that from 2001-2007 average annual domestic use was 483 litres per capita per day (lcd). This exceeds the national domestic use average of 329 lcd per day and the average domestic use of Europeans which ranges from 150 to 200 lcd (UNEP, 2003). Note that all of these comparative use numbers exclude commercial use. In the summer months, water usage in Rossland jumps substantially, especially when temperatures exceed 25 degrees, to 780 lcd per day (Lepsoe, 2009). Over the last six years from 2004 to 2009, Rossland has utilized on average 878,355 cubic metres of water per year with a range of 815,903 in 2005 to 919,542 in 2007. There are currently no large-scale commercial water users. Rossland has no commercial agriculture and the Redstone golf course has its own groundwater supply. Rossland has many options in terms of reducing demand, and is implementing some, but it is unclear how successful demand-side management measures will be. Previous studies have argued that demand side management could save Rossland over 470,000 cubic meters of water annually (Lepsoe, 2008). This is almost half of Rossland’s annual water consumption and seems very optimistic. Given the extent to which our consumption exceeds national and European averages, it could be achieved, but it would be ambitious and potentially costly. The City already imposes some demand-side management measures. Restrictions on watering that allow residents to water only every other day and during certain hours, start every year on July 1st. City Staff are considering changing these restrictions to make the date on which they commence to be more flexible so it can be adjusted to reflect the annual water level. Further demand-side management measures have been established in the form of voluntary water meters. By January 2011, in accordance with the draft Water Service bylaw, all dwellings in Rossland will be required to install water-metering equipment. This is allowing for billing based on water consumption and will provide important data regarding water consumption Page 32 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report patterns. A graduated fee structure in which residents pay more if they utilize more water has already been established through the Water Rate Bylaw. However at this point in time, a deadline for meter installation followed by a rate structure that would impose higher fees on those who do not have a meter has not been established. Rossland has a highly-educated, fairly affluent population, highly trained City staff members and well established mechanisms for community engagement which could improve Rossland’s chances at driving demand-side management and water conservation measures. Nevertheless there has been opposition to the water meter program, in part because the current water rate structure does not provide an incentive for the installation of water meters. Leaks do not appear to be a major component of Rossland’s water use. Leaks from City pipes are currently considered by City staff to be a minimal factor in water consumption, potentially accounting for around 10% of Rossland’s water usage. This is based on an analysis of water consumption rates – rates of leakage in the winter are likely to be higher due to a decrease in the dynamic pressure in the pipes, and yet winter consumption rates are low. This is not uncommon and most municipalities experience water losses in pipes of around 10%. It is possible that leaks account for a higher percentage of Rossland’s water use. Once water meters are installed in all Rossland households, the City will be able to get more accurate information regarding the amount of water loss through leakage. Eliminating leaks entirely would be a very costly undertaking that does not seem warranted given current supply levels and the significant potential to reduce demand. Matching Supply and Demand Current supply will be sufficient to meet low-end population growth scenarios and, with conservation measures, should be sufficient for moderate-end scenarios. The City OCP estimates that permanent and seasonal population growth over the next 20 years could range between 1-1.5% annually. At the high-end, this would result in a combined permanent and seasonal population of 5738 by 2027, compared to Rossland’s population of 3,532 in 2009. Low-growth scenarios forecast by BC Statistics see Rossland’s population contracting by – 1.25% to 2694 by 2028. It is hard to predict which growth scenario will occur. Water supply will likely be adequate to meet demand in the low-growth scenario. In the higher OCP growth scenario, if per capita water consumption remains unchanged, demand could be almost double current levels. While there is currently an excess of supply of water that could accommodate some of this increased demand, conservation measures reducing overall per capita demand may be necessary. A formal city water management plan providing more detailed analysis of these potential population growth scenarios, per capita consumption scenarios and storage capacity requirements is needed. Rossland has generally adequate storage for current population levels. At current summer use rates (which are high and are significantly linked to lawn watering), Rossland has 47.5 days of storage capacity in a no stream flow situation. If water consumption were Page 33 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report restricted to winter consumption rates, that storage capacity would jump to 142.5 days in a no flow situation. However, at current low summer flows, the streams provide about 2000 cubic metres of water per day. Assuming that current low-flow stream rates remain at around 2,000 cubic meters per day and peak usage during drier seasons ranges between 3,500-5,500 cubic meters per day, Rossland’s water supply would last approximately 81-190 days, in an extended low flow situation. Rossland does not have a drought plan that identifies when water restrictions are to be put in place. The provincial government has prepared a provincial Drought Response Plan (econnics, 2010). As part of the Plan, the Province assesses regional drought levels and puts local governments on restrictions based on the assessed level of drought. At level two, restrictions are voluntary and a target of 10% reduction in consumption has been set, at level three the target is 20% reduction, and at level four maximum restrictions will be imposed with a potential regulatory response from the provincial government (econnics, 2010). In 2010, the region was temporarily placed at a level three drought rating for the month of May. It would be helpful to formalize Rossland’s approach to drought management. Some of Rossland’s water infrastructure is aging, particularly the pipes beneath the roads, but Rossland does not have a large enough residential tax base to fund significant infrastructure expansion. In high and low population growth scenarios, financing capital projects, such as water pipe renewal, increased water filtration, or increased storage capacity will be difficult given the available residential tax base. The City invested $3 million into expanding storage capacity with the Ophir Reservoir project in 2008 (total project cost was $5 million; the provincial government contributed $2 million). Infrastructure upgrades are discussed in the next section, which focuses specifically on infrastructure. The availability of government grants will be a key factor in determining whether infrastructure upgrades can be undertaken. Quality Rossland’s water quality is generally very high. Rossland’s Treatment Plant was built 17 years ago and provides slow sand filtration and chlorination to Rossland’s water. Rossland’s water quality is monitored on an ongoing basis. Continuous monitoring of free chlorine residual readings, temperature and pH in the drinking water is undertaken in the Water Treatment plant. Samples of drinking water from the plant are tested on a daily basis by City staff. On a weekly basis, free chlorine residuals are tested by City Staff test at separate locations (i.e. the presence of chlorine in the water). Future Climate Change Water Impacts for Rossland The key future climate change impacts for Rossland with respect to water supply that could result from the projected climate changes outlined above are: Page 34 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report Supply Higher spring temperatures shift spring runoff earlier, over a shorter period when reservoirs are already full (and peak demand has not commenced), result in less total stream flow captured for community use. Longer periods of drought and higher temperatures in the summer result in very low creek flows over longer periods of time in the summer leading to greater reliance on storage, greater reservoir draw down and longer periods of low or no downstream flows in the summer. Increased precipitation falling as rain, rather than snow, in the winter result in greater soil infiltration and evaporation reducing the overall amount of water flowing into Rossland’s reservoirs. Evaporation off the reservoirs will increase as temperatures increase. An increase in the incidence of drought events and higher temperatures in the late summer/early fall would increase the risk of insufficient creek flows to refill Rossland’s reservoirs at a time when the reservoirs are already drawn down and water use is high extending the period over which the reservoirs are at less than capacity. A wildfire in one of Rossland’s watersheds could have negative implications for Rossland’s water quantity. Demand Longer periods of higher temperatures and drought in the spring/summer/fall result in greater evaporation and evapotranspiration, reducing soil moisture and resulting in higher water demand for longer periods. A wildfire on the urban interface could result in a heavy demand for water leading to significant reservoir draw down. Matching Supply and Demand Reduced total streamflow storage and higher water demands for longer periods create the potential for low reservoir levels creating water shortages, or the need for more serious restrictions on use. Quality Extreme precipitation events, a more rapid spring run-off, and rain on snow events could result in flash floods, landslides and greater sediment and turbidity in the water supply resulting in water quality issues and increased water treatment costs (these events also have infrastructure implications and are addressed in that section). Page 35 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report Streams and reservoirs operating at lower capacity in higher summer temperatures have a higher likelihood of contamination by algae and bacteria growth, which may result in water quality issues during late summer and fall. A wildfire in one of Rossland’s watersheds negatively impacts water quality. Summary Rossland has had a historically consistent and adequate level of water supply and storage. Climate change is expected to cause slight increases in annual precipitation, but decreased snowpack, earlier spring run-off and reduced summer precipitation. This could result in moderate decreases in water capture in some years. Given that there are reasonable opportunities to reduce current demand levels, these climate change impacts with respect to water may not pose a significant challenge in most years, provided that Rossland’s population remains stable or declines. Developing and implementing a set of demand-side management policies to promote reduced water consumption in the short term would be a prudent adaptation measure to ensure that longer term fluctuations in supply can be more easily accommodated. Despite the generally optimistic outlook for Rossland’s water supply, an increase in the variability in precipitation and temperatures from year to year and/or extreme events are also expected and should be prepared for. Flow monitoring and a drought plan to allow for early intervention in years where supply is significantly lower than expected could be essential climate change adaptations. If the spring freshet becomes significantly faster and shorter on an ongoing basis, additional storage capacity or height on Ophir could be required to capture the available water. In addition, population increases matching the higher-end growth scenario outlined in the OCP or increased demand from other sources, such as increased local agriculture, or provincial requirements to maintain downstream flows, while unlikely, could change the current supply and demand profile and result in the need to adjust demand accordingly through demand-side management or consider approaches to increasing storage capacity. A City water management plan that formalizes flow monitoring and outlines total demand trigger points for a combination of demand side management increases and/or supply side increases, based on various permutations of per capita consumption and/or droughts would be a helpful climate change adaptation tool. Climate change may also produce changes in water quality as a result of increased temperatures, increased spring flow rates and decreased summer flow rates. Continued water quality monitoring will be critical to ensuring the safety of Rossland’s water supply. Page 36 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report Priority Area 3: Energy The impacts on energy availability and pricing that could arise as a result of projected climate changes are not as immediately obvious as those for water and infrastructure. As with food security, because much of Rossland’s energy comes from beyond Rossland’s boundaries, energy also requires more of a global level evaluation. This is provided in the non-climate related stresses and opportunities section. Potential energy impacts related to Rossland as a result of climate change are identified in the section that follows. Current and Future Non-Climate Related Stresses and Opportunities Demand Rossland consumes energy in the form of transportation fuels, natural gas and electricity. By gigajoules, the Ministry of Environment estimates that Rossland uses 444,354 GJ of energy annually broken down by consumption type in the following table: Rossland Energy Consumption by Type and Resulting CO2 Emissions Consumption Type Electricity Natural Gas Gasoline & Diesel TOTAL Usage (GJ) 100,880 137,349 206,125 444,354 % of Energy Usage 22.7% 31.0% 46.3% 100% Source: Ministry of Environment, 2007 This works out to an average of approximately 127 GJ per person which compares quite favourably to BC per capita energy consumption of 239 GJ per person in 2003 (Statistics Canada, 2003). However it is critical to note that this includes commercial and industrial energy use. Thus given that Rossland has relatively fewer industrial energy users than many other communities, it may not be useful to draw this comparison. A significant proportion of Rossland’s energy use is in the form of transportation fuels. It was estimated by the Ministry of Environment that in 2006 83.1% of residents depend upon Page 37 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report automobiles to travel to and from work. The transportation fuel consumption figures must be interpreted with some caution however. While the estimates are in part based on reasonably accurate information regarding the number and types of vehicles licensed to Rossland owners, the Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKT) are based on an algorithm using odometer readings from the Fraser Valley Regional District as the baseline (Ministry of Environment, 2010). While some regional coefficients were incorporated, including the median per capita income, ages and sexes of the drivers and model age of each vehicle, as well as actual odometer readings on Transfer Tax forms that are completed when vehicles are sold (Ministry of Environment, 2010), they remain estimates that might not effectively account for the short commute distances of many Rossland drivers, thereby resulting in an overestimate for the number of GJ consumed through transportation. In addition, the City’s Energy Task Force’s Community Energy Survey, which received responses from 141 households (representing under 10% of Rossland households), found that 40% of respondents do not travel to work, either because they are retired, unemployed or work from home and 37% of respondents drive to work on a regular basis. Thus the Ministry of Environment figures must be interpreted with some caution. Rosslanders consume slightly more than the provincial average of electricity. According to the Ministry of Environment, Community Energy and Emissions Inventory for Rossland, electricity consumption in 2007 was 28,022,478 kWh, of which 17,954,312 kWh was residential and 10,068,166 was commercial/small industrial (Ministry of Environment, 2007). Using Statistics Canada’s 2006 numbers of 1656 households for Rossland, this works out to an average of 10,851 kWh per year. By comparison, the average BC household consumes 10,000 kWh per year (Ministry of Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources, 2010). A large number of Rosslanders use natural gas as a primary heating fuel. According to the Energy Task Force’s Community Energy Survey, 72% of respondents utilize natural gas as a primary heating fuel. While these numbers cannot be extrapolated without some margin of error, it can likely be assumed that over half of Rossland households use natural gas as a primary heating fuel. A large number of Rosslanders have a secondary heating source. According to the Energy Task Force’s Community Energy Survey, 62% of respondents indicated that they had a secondary heating source, (34% wood, 17% natural gas, 14% electricity, 34% no reply). The availability of secondary heating sources enhances local resiliency in the face of temporary power outages. However natural gas furnaces will not work without electricity. Wood as a secondary heating source could allow Rosslanders to offset increased energy prices through increased usage of wood heat. However increased use of wood heat presents some challenges in the form of air quality concerns. A small number of homeowners also have solar and geothermal heat sources. Page 38 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report Opportunities exist to reduce Rossland’s energy demand. Although the City has not currently chosen to take on a significant role in community energy planning and management, the potential exists for the City of Rossland to implement demand-side management to reduce dependency on natural gas, transportation fuels and electricity usage. Rossland has been successful at engaging the community in community planning and may be able to achieve similar success in energy demand side management measures. Innovative programs such as localized transit or car cooperatives and electricity usage conservation measures (district heating or burn smart programs) could be undertaken. Teck, the region’s largest employer, relies on affordable hydroelectric energy and transportation fuels for its Trail operations to maintain competitive lead and zinc operations. The inter-relationship of price, supply and demand for electricity, lead and zinc is important to Teck’s competitiveness and therefore Rossland’s economic outlook. If energy prices increase significantly, Teck may struggle to maintain its competitiveness in the face of a number of other potential market changes. Given Teck’s ability to generate its own hydroelectricity at low cost, it may have a long-term competitive advantage on this front. However, given its location, it may be at a competitive disadvantage if faced with increased transportation fuel prices. Global and BC energy demand are forecast to continue to increase to 2030 if no changes are made to government policies around the world. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Scenario, which provides a baseline forecast of how global energy markets will evolve if governments make no changes to their existing policies, world primary energy demand is projected to increase by 1.5% per year between 2007 and 2030 (IEA, 2009). This will mean an increase from 12,000 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) to 16,800 Mtoe driven by both population increase and development in Asian countries (IEA, 2009). Relevant to Rossland and BC is the fact that as part of this scenario fossil fuels are projected to remain the dominant source of primary energy and therefore the subject of increased demand, and the majority of the increased demand will be for power generation (IEA, 2009). It is also critical to note that BC electricity demand is forecast to increase by 25 to 45% from current levels by 2025 (BC Hydro, 2006). Increases in global demand for fossil fuels and BC demand for hydroelectricity could have implications for energy supply and prices in Rossland. Climate change mitigation policies will likely increase energy costs. We can expect to see, in the next decade, significant policies worldwide and in Canada to address climate change by reducing, among other things, energy-related emissions of GHGs. A number of G-8 countries, including Canada, have pledged to halve their GHG emissions by the year 2050. One of the sets of tools that is bound to be used is a range of policies that penalizes fossil fuel production and consumption. This would affect Rossland in two ways. First, it would increase the costs of transport fuels and, if technology remains unchanged, of transport. Second, it would result in increased demand for clean energy sources such as hydro-generated electricity. Page 39 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report Given BC’s ability to export electricity to Alberta and the US West Coast, this would tend to drive up the price of electricity for BC consumers. Supply and Prices Rossland’s current electricity supply is primarily from hydroelectric sources and is provided by Fortis through recently refurbished transmission lines. Rossland currently receives electricity from Fortis, BC via a 25 KV line. Both Fortis’ sub-station and the distribution system were completely refurbished in 2000. Rossland has no local commercial renewable energy providers, and a very small number of residents utilize geothermal and solar energy for heat. Currently Rossland households pay a lower price for electricity than many other provinces and US States. According to the BC Energy Plan, BC households pay on average 6.41 cents per kilowatt hour (cents/kWh), compared to some American households which can pay up to 23.82 cents per kilowatt hour and many Canadian households, which can pay between 10 and 12 cents/kWh (Ministry of Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources, 2010). Rising demand for electricity and potentially limited supply may impose new stresses on the energy grid. Beyond the challenges associated with the simple supply of energy, the delivery of electricity could become challenged by increased demands, either through increased local consumption, increased population or increased external demands, coupled with an aging infrastructure resulting in more temporary power outages. The City currently has an Emergency Plan to address temporary power outages. In emergencies, the City’s Emergency Plan is to call an emergency and trigger its Provincial Emergency Program (PEP) account. Once PEP has been triggered, an Emergency Operation Centre will be established and the Red Cross and RCMP will be called in as necessary. Emergency shelters will be established. City staff have been trained in how to address an emergency. External factors are expected to significantly affect energy supply and prices over the next century. The cost of all of the main types of energy utilized in Rossland, (electricity, natural gas and transportation fuels), are expected to rise due to many factors, including increases in global energy demand, carbon pricing, and declines in stocks of readily available fossil fuels necessitating more expensive production techniques. Outlooks for some of our main sources of energy are as follows: Oil. There has been considerable debate regarding when global oil production may start to peak and decline. In official documents, the IEA and many government agencies say little about the potential for peak oil and when declines in oil production may start to become noticeable in terms of dramatic price increases or supply shortages. According to the IEA (2008), estimates for proven global oil reserves in 2007 ranged from 1,322 Page 40 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report billion barrels to 1,120 billion barrels. In 2008, the IEA estimated that the global reserves-to-production ratio, based on current levels of production were about 40 to 45 years, and suggested that peak oil production could occur in 2030 (IEA, 2008). Nevertheless the reserves-to-production ratio is a figure that has remained stable for many years despite dramatic increases in consumption, due to continued increases in the reserves estimates and our ability to access previously uneconomically viable sources of oil. The IEA places a lot of emphasis on the US Geological Survey’s estimates of undiscovered reserves, which are in the range of 805 billion barrels (IEA, 2008). This does not even account for oil reserves currently unrecoverable or uneconomically recoverable (which would raise total global reserves to 9 trillion barrels) (IEA, 2008). However there have been whistleblower incidents at the IEA, including statements by the IEA chief economist Dr. Faith Birol, in which claims have been made that the official IEA estimates are vastly optimistic and are a result of efforts to please the US and avoid panic buying (Macalister, 2009; Murray, 2009). Birol stated to the press in 2009 that global oil production was likely to peak in 10 years and that governments are very underprepared (Murray, 2009). The failure to make official statements regarding peak oil is consistent across many governments, although many of them also have peak oil committees or parliamentary groups. The BC government for example states in its most recent Energy Plan that the debate within the government regarding peak oil is “lively” (Ministry of Energy Mines and Petroleum Resources, 2010). It is important to emphasize though that even if we were to reach peak oil, it would not mean the end of oil, but rather likely the end of cheap oil. Overall, peak oil is very hard to predict. There are many remaining potential oil reserves that are currently considered uneconomical to produce (i.e. oil shales). As other forms of production decrease and prices potentially increase or new production techniques are developed, it is very possible these additional reserves will come on line as economically viable. However, at the very least, the decline in conventional oil reserves and increase in reliance on nonconventional oil reserves will mean an increase in oil prices. We will be forced to rely on oil resources that are more and more difficult to access and higher costs will result in higher prices. The IEA forecasts that due to the eventual increase in reliance on nonconventional oil reserves in the IEA Reference Scenario, oil prices will increase from $60 per barrel in 2009 to $100 per barrel by 2020, and the long term supply cost curve is expected to continue to rise (IEA, 2008; IEA, 2009). Natural Gas. Natural gas supplies are considered very secure globally with over 850 trillion cubic metres (tcm) in long-term global recoverable gas (IEA, 2009). To date only 66 tcm have been produced (IEA, 2009). However, many of the traditional proven gas reserves are located in the Middle East and Russia. Transportation of this liquefied natural gas over oceans is very expensive. Canada and the US have some supplies of unconventional natural gas, to which new technology is increasingly allowing access Page 41 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report (IEA, 2009). However, these supplies are not limitless (Alberta is considered to have 47 years of natural gas reserves – 75 percent unproven), and some of the unconventional reserves may prove too expensive or too environmentally damaging to access. In addition, due to the higher costs of accessing unconventional natural gas, as well as rising material costs and rig rates, natural gas costs are expected to rise in North America over the next several decades (IEA, 2009). Tougher environmental controls over unconventional recovery, as the technology is more widely used, will likely contribute to the trend of higher natural gas prices. Hydroelectricity. Even the cost of hydroelectricity could rise. The National Energy Board (NEB) of Canada notes that hydro-based jurisdictions (e.g. Québec, Manitoba, BC) are also experiencing moderate rate increases due to rising operating costs and the cost of new generation (NEB, 2010). BC is already a net importer of energy in the range of about 1700 to 7400 GWh per year, which is less than ten percent of BC’s energy use, as domestic demand is outstripping domestic energy supply. As outlined above, domestic demand is expected to continue to increase and therefore without expanded supply, domestic hydroelectric supply will increasingly be insufficient in the coming years (BC Hydro, 2006). Closing this electricity gap will require either conservation, more independent power projects (IPP), larger purchases of electricity from other jurisdictions or new provincial power projects (BC Hydro, 2006). Site C on the Peace River remains an identified hydroelectric option and could provide 900 MW of electricity, or 4,600 GWh per year (BC Hydro, 2006). Locally, BC Hydro has two projects under consideration on the Columbia at Murphy Creek and Boundary each estimated to be capable of producing 275 MW. There are also many IPP proposals in the Columbia Basin. Coal. Coal is identified as an electricity generation option by BC Hydro for BC given our abundant coal resources (BC Hydro, 2006). BC Hydro stresses that coal could provide a stable energy supply provided sufficient lead time is available to build an appropriate plant (BC Hydro, 2006). While cleaner coal options, such as carbon capture and sequestration technology, are under development, there are still many uncertainties associated with them. Coal may provide BC and Rossland with some level of energy security, but it could have some serious environmental costs that would have to be overcome. At present, however, new coal-fired generation in BC can only be built if it incorporates carbon capture and storage, which given the expense and untested nature of this technology, makes coal as a future BC fuel unlikely. In addition, tighter environmental regulations in other countries, particularly the United States could increase external demand for clean energy, such as the hydroelectric energy generated in Canada, resulting in higher prices and more demand competition for Rossland. Page 42 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report Energy investment in terms of the identification and development of new supplies has declined significantly over the past year due to the economic downturn raising concerns regarding global energy security and shortfalls in supply due to the long lead times associated with the development of many energy projects, especially electricity and oil (IEA, 2009). This will also likely lead to increased energy costs. Increased energy costs and decreased supply of some energy sources could be partially offset by external factors such as energy efficiency technology improvements, new forms of energy production, and energy efficiency incentive programs at all levels of government. Climate change mitigation is becoming a driver at all levels of government to develop clean sources of energy, promote energy efficiency and reduce consumption. Although these measures do not yet appear to be dramatic enough to generate significant change, if these measures do ultimately go far enough, they could result in an increased security of energy supply and a decrease in energy costs. In the IEA 450 Scenario, in which rapid and coordinated policy action is taken all across the world to stabilize greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at 450 ppm, electricity demand is lowered by 40 percent through energy efficiency investments and the total global reduction in energy bills in transport, buildings and industry is $8.6 trillion over the period 2010 to 2030 (IEA, 2009). In BC, and in Rossland, reduced energy consumption could be fostered through the multitude of policies and programs outlined in the new BC Energy Plan including policies promoting improved building efficiency, hybrid and electric cars, and incentive programs such as the provincial LiveSmart BC Energy Efficiency program, the Innovative Clean Energy Fund and the LocalMotion Fund (Ministry of Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources, 2010). The City has limited ability to impact electricity production and prices on a macro level. Many of the factors that will influence energy supplies and prices will play out on international, national and provincial levels. The City of Rossland will have limited to no influence over these events. As a small user, Rossland residents are currently price takers with respect to energy and have too limited a population to influence energy prices. Diversifying its energy sources through local renewable energy generation would be a challenging proposition for Rossland. The costs of developing electricity generation using alternative and renewable resources such as wind, biomass, solar, and small hydro have decreased considerably over the last two decades due to technological advances. Unfortunately, the Return on Investment (ROI) on renewable energy projects is often still poor in some cases compared to traditional energy sources, particularly in BC where hydroelectric rates are comparatively very low. However if the marginal costs of electricity, the true costs of carbon and the social and economic impacts electricity are taken into consideration (full cost accounting), the ROIs of alternative energy projects improve significantly. Even with current ROIs, municipalities across Canada have undertaken solar thermal, biomass, biogas and geothermal projects; district heating programs and combined heat/power generation Page 43 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report are viable ways to build community energy resiliency (FCM, 2009). However, these programs require capital investment and technical expertise and as the Federation of Canadian Municipalities (FCM) points out, “many of the … best practices in energy sustainability are being advanced by larger, urban municipalities. These solutions are not getting much uptake in the smaller, urban or rural municipalities. This is a trend that may continue in the short- to mediumterm unless additional resources can be identified to help [them]” (FCM, 2009, p. iii). Without the economies of scale afforded to larger communities, the start-up costs and expertise requirements of many renewable energy projects present challenges, e.g. upgrading municipal buildings in Halifax cost $3.6 million dollars, while estimated savings from the retrofits were $250,000 annually (FCM, 2009). Options for renewable energy in Rossland would have to be further explored. Some of the key ones that could be further investigated include: Solar Photovoltaics. Solar energy systems come in two forms: active or photovoltaics, utilized to generate electricity and passive or solar thermal, used to generate heat, usually to heat water. PV modules currently cost about $6 to $8 per watt to purchase, but there are additional costs associated with the other parts of the system including wiring, batteries etc. (BC Sustainable Energy Association, 2010). However these only increase the system cost per watt to about $9.50 to $10. The industry is utilizing the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) as its basis for doing price comparisons. The LCOE takes into account the infrastructure cost, its lifespan and the amount of energy the system will produce over its lifetime based on the number of sunlight hours an area is expected to receive, the sophistication of the system (whether the panels tilt to follow the sun or not) and the size of the system. On a kilowatt-hour basis, assuming a lifespan of 25 years, on a 10 MW plant in Arizona (which is a large and more efficient installation) current photovoltaic technology costs about 15 to 22 cents per kWh, versus hydroelectricity in BC, which costs 6.41 cents/kWh (US Department of Energy, 2007). In comparison, on a residential 4 kW system in Phoenix, the LCOE was 32 cents/kWh in 2005 and is projected to decline to 15 cents/kWh in 2011, and 9 cents/kWh in 2020 (US Department of Energy, 2007). Modelling for a 150 kw commercial system shows a LCOE of 18 cents/kWh in 2005, 10 cents in 2011 and 6 cents in 2020 (US Department of Energy, 2007). There have been major advances in PV module technology in the last few years reducing production costs of the modules to below $2/watt. This could result in significant reductions of LCOEs. However LCOEs cannot yet be calculated for these new modules as the lifespan of the modules is as yet unknown and is a critical factor in the LCOE calculation (US Department of Energy, 2007). Due in part to our low cost hydroelectricity, BC dramatically lags the rest of the world in both residential and commercial solar installations. Currently over 5.5 GW of power is being produced globally in solar power plants in places such as Germany, Spain and the United States (RENI, 2010). In lower latitude sunny parts of the world, such as the Page 44 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report Middle East, India and the southern US these installations are very close to reaching grid parity (whereby they cost the same as grid supplied energy) (RENI, 2010). In more northern countries, such as France and the Czech Republic, grid parity is thought to be five years away (RENI, 2010). Although Rossland will never have optimal sunlight hours for solar photovoltaics, it could be viable as technology advances reduce costs. In BC, the T’Souke First Nation on Vancouver Island has the largest solar installation in BC totaling 75 Kw (Kimmett, 2009). The cost for this project was $1 million, supplied in part by the BC Innovative Clean Energy Fund (Kimmett, 2009). But it must be emphasized that much of this funding was devoted to capacity building within the First Nation. Rossland has limited current local examples of photovoltaic installations with a few potential off grid residences, backcountry lodges and highways equipment installations. The City of Berkeley established a solar financing program in 2008 that is being considered a potential model for the rest of the US in financing residential photovoltaic systems (City of Berkeley, 2010). Property owners were invited to borrow money from the City’s Sustainable Energy Financing District for the installation of photovoltaic systems (City of Berkeley, 2010). Loans would be repaid through the homeowner’s property tax bill over 20 years (City of Berkeley, 2010). Thirteen property owners took advantage of the loan, while 27 who originally were interested in the program installed photovoltaic systems but secured their own lower cost financing (City of Berkeley, 2010). The cost of the systems after rebates ranged from $17,000 to $36,500 installed and they are expected to provide the residents with 75 to 100 percent of their energy needs (City of Berkeley, 2010). Solar Thermal. Solar thermal systems can be utilized for space heating, water heating and pool heating. They cost in the range of $2000 to $4500 for a single residence and can be quite efficient for pool and water heating (US Department of Energy, 2003). The solar hot water component of the T’Souke First Nation installation consists of 25 systems on residences, which provide enough hot water in the summer to serve all of those residences’ hot water needs (Kimmett, 2009). A few Rossland residents have recently installed solar thermal water heaters. Two solar thermal companies have recently been established in Rossland. One of these companies indicated that systems cost about $8500 to install (Rossi, 2010). Changes to the BC Building Code were being considered to require new residences to be solar hot water ready, but this has not yet occurred. Incentives will likely be required to make the ROI on solar thermal reasonable enough for Rossland residents to consider it in large numbers. Solar thermal concentration plants, which use lenses or mirrors to concentrate a large amount of sunlight into a small area, are also a possibility, but unlikely to be viable at current hydroelectric rates. A plant of this nature is under consideration in Medicine Hat. Page 45 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report Micro Hydro. Micro hydro works with small dams or diversion structures to divert water from small rivers or streams to a generating station. Micro hydro operations generally provide less than 100 kw. Small hydro ranges up to 30 MW. Key to whether a stream is suitable for micro hydro is its head (or elevation drop) and flow rate. Some handbooks suggest that to be suitable for micro hydro the creek must have a flow rate of 300 gallons per minute (GPM) and that flow must be at about this rate throughout the year (Western North Carolina Renewable Energy Initiative, 2007). There are many examples of micro hydro at backcountry lodges in the area and Nelson Power operates a small hydro plant at Bonnington Falls on the Kootenay River that can generate 16 MW. BC Hydro did an assessment of creeks in the province to determine their potential for micro hydro (BC Hydro, 2000). The Trail portion of Murphy Creek, which has more flow, and is closer to users and power lines, was identified with a flow of 0.95 m3/s and a head of 60m and the ability to supply 400 kw of power (enough for around 100 homes) at a cost of 1.1 cents/kWh (BC Hydro, 2000). The flows on Hanna and Topping creeks are not likely consistent or large enough to for micro hydro. The Rossland portion of Murphy Creek could perhaps offer enough flows for a micro-hydro operation. Geothermal and Groundsource Heat. There are two types of geothermal energy – one which is true geothermal energy in the form of steam or hot water reservoirs with temperatures higher than 170 degrees C, which would allow for power generation (BC Sustainable Energy Association, 2010) and the other which is more for individual residential purposes that accesses lower temperature reservoirs and utilizes them for home heating. The number of sites with water at sufficient temperatures to allow for power generation is limited and can generally be found in areas with recent volcanic activity and tectonic plate boundaries (BC Sustainable Energy Association, 2010). This water often appears at the surface in the form of hot springs. Although geothermal experts have argued that geothermal sources could supply half of BC’s energy needs (Vancouver Sun, 2007), in BC, only the Meager Creek Area north of Whistler has been extensively studied and is under development as a site for true geothermal power generation. Work has also been undertaken in the North Meager and Mount Cayley areas (Meech and Ghomshei, nd). The Garibaldi Pemberton range and Haida Gwaii are also thought to be promising areas of geothermal activity (Vancouver Sun, 2007). Rossland is identified by the Ministry of Energy Mines and Petroleum Resources (1992) as an area of “moderate geothermal potential containing some characteristics of geothermal resources” but limited investigation has been undertaken in this area. Globally 9600 MW of power are produced in geothermal plants with the US as the leading producer (BC Sustainable Energy Association. 2010). Geothermal power Page 46 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report generation is very cost efficient with a LCOE of about 3.3 to 3.9 cents/kWh (BC Sustainable Energy Association, 2010). Future costs could be as low as 1 cent/kWh. Groundsource heat pumps access lower temperature geothermal energy to heat homes and offices in the winter. The cost of groundsource heat pumps ranges from $6000 to $10,000 depending on the size of the house and average winter temperatures. Groundsource heat pumps can reduce heating bills by 50 to 70 percent with payback in 5 to 12 years (BC Sustainable Energy Association, 2010). There are currently 30,000 geothermal heat pumps in Canada with an energy cost of about 2 to 4 cents/kWh (Meech and Ghomshei, nd). A groundsource heat pump installed at the Lynne Valley Care Centre in North Vancouver supplies heat for 180 residents saving $28,550/year with an initial investment of $90,000 (Meech and Ghomshei, nd). There are a few households in Rossland with groundsource heat pumps. Old mines are considered especially promising for geothermal heat pumps as they allow water to move laterally and vertically. The Britannia Mine in BC is being examined for this purpose, and a coalmine in Nova Scotia provides heating and cooling to a 14,000 m2 industrial park (Meech and Ghomshei, nd). Rossland is situated on top of a water-filled mine. Wind. Wind energy provides energy at a very competitive rate ranging from 6 to 8 cents/kWh at windy sites and up to 12 cents/kWh at less windy sites (6 m/s) (BC Sustainable Energy Association, 2010). Wind energy potential in an area is determined by the speed and consistency of the wind with anything over 7.0 m/s or 25 km per hour considered to be a good resource (BC Hydro, 2010). BC Hydro has done some very large scale mapping of wind resources in BC and Rossland falls into a zone that is considered poor to fair for wind energy with wind speeds of less than 6 m/s and possibly less than 4 m/s (BC Hydro, nd). Mountainous regions are challenging to assess for wind energy potential as they are often characterized by very localized wind regimes. In an overall assessment for the BC southern interior, for BC Hydro, Garrad Hassan concluded that the lower speed and consistency of winds in the southern interior would result in a very high wind energy cost (Garrad Hassan, 2008). Waste, Biomass and Waste heat. Waste to energy is a common form of disposing of municipal solid waste and generating energy in many other countries, especially Japan and China. The most common form of waste to energy is through incineration of the waste, but this approach raises many concerns regarding local air emissions and acid rain. Other approaches that might produce fewer emissions exist or are under development including gasification and fermentation. The waste-to-energy facility in Burnaby BC turns about 280,000 tonnes of Metro Vancouver’s waste (about 20 percent) into steam and electricity. The electricity (400 MWh) is sold to BC Hydro and is sufficient to power 12,300 homes (Metro Vancouver, 2010). However a much larger waste stream or a regional waste operation would likely be necessary to make a waste to energy operational viable. Page 47 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report Biomass could be very viable possibility for local energy production in Rossland, possibly as part of the wildfire fuel reduction initiative, using waste from the local sawmill, or accessing wood waste elsewhere. A study was undertaken for the RDKB using biomass specifically grown to produce energy and could be revisited. There are many local examples of the use of wood waste and wood pellets to produce heat including Nakusp High School, the Revelstoke Community Energy Corporation and the Dockside Green project in Victoria. The Kettle Falls plant in Washington State consumes 542,00 tons of wood waste per year and produces 46 MW of electricity. Biogas from biomass gasification is should also be considered. Waste heat from equipment such as air conditioners and chillers (in the arena) also presents possibilities, albeit likely more limited. The Rossland pool gets its heat from the waste heat given off by the City Hall air conditioning units. Future Climate Change Energy Impacts for Rossland Demand Higher winter temperatures may result in lower demand for winter heating. Less insulation from snow cover may result in higher demand for winter heating. Higher temperatures paired with longer hot periods in late summer may increase the demand for air conditioning, Supply and Prices Extreme weather events such as hot dry conditions leading to wildfire, snow or ice storms, or heavy wet snow may knock out power lines more frequently resulting in temporary or extended power outages, which could result in the need for: o expanded emergency services for vulnerable populations in cold weather and/or extreme heat, and o use of backup heat/power sources that may compromise air quality. Changes in river flow regimes, especially flow reductions could cause changes in levels of electricity generation that (total aggregate hydropower reduction for the Columbia Basin is projected to be 3% - but summer reductions could be as high as 15%) (Lane et al, 2009). In addition, changes in air temperature, wind patterns and humidity may also indirectly affect hydroelectric energy generation by impacting reservoir and river dynamics potentially contributing to higher hydro-electricity prices across the province. Page 48 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report Extreme weather events in other parts of the world could cause temporary oil or natural gas shortages or price increases, which could impact Rossland residents who depend on their vehicles and those who heat their homes with oil or natural gas as well as affecting the cost of products transported into Rossland, such as food, thereby impacting residents through higher prices and the viability of businesses. Summary Energy differs from water and infrastructure in the sense that the energy that Rossland relies upon comes from external sources that are beyond the City’s control. Moreover, many of the supply and pricing challenges that are likely to affect energy over the next century are significant, but are not related to local climate changes, such as increased global energy demand, climate change mitigation measures and the rising cost of processing for many energy sources. Nevertheless climate change may exacerbate expected supply and pricing challenges. Many alternative energy sources exist, including renewable options, such as solar, geothermal and biomass that would make Rossland more energy self-sufficient. However the start up costs and returns on investment do not make these options attractive at this point in time on either a community or a household level, compared to existing energy sources. Rossland also has the option of implementing measures to promote greater energy efficiency and conservation to reduce our overall energy demand. The value of pursuing these energy efficiency and conservation measures must be considered against the cost of implementing them. Perhaps more importantly, it must be recognized that to have the greatest effect these measures must be pursued at the household and business level rather than merely at the corporate City level, and that the City does not have as much power to affect change on households and businesses with respect to energy as it does for water or infrastructure. Cities in the past have not typically considered themselves to have a large role in community energy security, but this is increasingly changing. Alternative energy generation, energy efficiency and conservation measures all provide benefits through increased energy security and reduced carbon emissions that make them worthwhile even if the straight ROI calculations do not make sense in the short-term. Nevertheless, climate change adaptation considerations alone may not make these actions worthwhile. Page 49 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report Priority Area 4: Food Security Like energy, the impacts on food security that could arise as a result of projected climate changes are not as immediately obvious as those for water and infrastructure. Because much of Rossland’s food comes from beyond Rossland’s boundaries, food also requires more of a global level evaluation. This is provided in the non-climate related stresses and opportunities section. Potential food impacts related to Rossland as a result of climate change are identified in the section that follows. This food section was taken from a larger Food Security Backgrounder and Vulnerability and Risk Assessment undertaken for this project. The food security backgrounder was undertaken for both the Regional Districts of Central Kootenay and Kootenay Boundary, collectively defined in this analysis as the region, not just for Rossland. Thus the analysis here reflects that regional outlook. It is included here for completeness and to reflect the four priority issue areas selected in March, 2010. The Kootenay Food Strategy Society defines food security as follows: “A community enjoys food security when all people, at all times, have access to nutritious, safe, personally acceptable and culturally appropriate foods, produced in ways that are environmentally sound and socially just” (KFSS, nd). The analysis below addresses trends in both global food production and the potential for local food production. Current and Future Non-Climate Related Stresses and Opportunities Demand There is no information available regarding the precise amount of food consumed in Rossland but it is believed that food production requires less than 0.542 hectares of land per person per year. The BC Ministry of Agriculture and Lands (MAL) indicates that given the production technology available in BC today, 0.524 hectares (1.3 acres) of farmland are required to produce healthy food sufficient for one person annually (MAL, 2006). The guidelines utilized for healthy food were those set out in the Canada’s Food Guide to Healthy Eating (MAL, 2006). According to the Ministry to produce a healthy diet for all British Columbians, farmers Page 50 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report would need 2.15 million ha of farmland, of which 10 percent (215,000 ha) would need to be irrigated, for economic fruit, vegetable and dairy production (MAL, 2006). Extending this analysis to the Central Kootenay and Kootenay Boundary Regional Districts at the 2006 combined population of the two Regional Districts of 86,625 people (Central Kootenay – 55,883 ha, Kootenay Boundary 30,742 ha) (Penfold, 2009) that 45,392 ha of farmland would be required to support the existing population, of which 4540 ha would have to be irrigated. Estimates based on a less meat-centered diet (but still some meat, to make use of forage land that cannot be utilized for crops) suggest that 0.2 hectares of land per person annually is required (Peters et al., 2008). Supply Experts have suggested that BC could not be self-sufficient in food production. Moura Quayle, former Dean of the University of British Columbia Faculty of Land and Food Systems, has said with regard to BC: “it’s unlikely we’ll ever get all our food from local sources, but more small-scale agriculture would provide a balance to the current agricultural model, and a mixed food supply system may give us more choices in the future” (Somerton, 2008:2). However it has been stated that conclusion is based on the current composition of BC’s population and the limited capacity of some components of the agricultural system. It is believed that 100 years ago, the Kootenay region was a net exporter of food. Moreover even mountainous communities, such as Rossland, were believed to be relatively food selfsufficient at the turn of the century. However this is only anecdotal and a more detailed analysis of historical data should be undertaken. There is a limited amount of agricultural land in BC and the Kootenay region. In BC only 5 percent of the land base is suitable for growing crops. Prime farmland (Classes 1 – 3 of the Canada Land Inventory), also called ‘dependable’ agricultural land, comprises less than 1 percent of the land base (948,600 ha) and is primarily concentrated near urban areas in the Lower Mainland and Okanagan (Hofmann, 2001). There are many ways of estimating the total amount of potentially productive farmland in the Kootenay region: Agricultural Land Reserve land. There are 63,924 hectares of Agricultural Land Reserve (ALR) land in the Central Kootenay and 53,443 hectares of ALR land in Kootenay Boundary (Penfold, 2009). Approximately one third of the ALR in the region is believed to be of lower quality agricultural classifications (i.e. lower than class 1-3) land and therefore limited in its productive capacity (Brynne, 2009). Area of Farms. The total area of farms in 2006 was 27,338 hectares (67,554 acres) in the Central Kootenay, and 53,260 hectares of farms (131,260 acres) in the Kootenay Boundary (Penfold, 2009). It is unclear how much overlap there is between the area of farms and ALR land. Page 51 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report Area currently in crops. The amount of land currently in crops in the RDCK and the RDKB is under 18,027 ha many of which are hay/fodder and alfalfa crops (Penfold, 2009). British Columbia farmers currently produce 48 percent of the food that is consumed in BC (MAL, 2006; Brynne, 2009). If healthy diet considerations are incorporated, BC produces only 34 percent of the food its citizens would need (MAL, 2006). In the Columbia Basin, local production is considered to be an even smaller percentage of the food consumed (Brynne, 2009). In some areas BC is fairly self-sufficient, including the production of chicken, eggs and dairy, and there is significant provincial sufficiency in the production of vegetables, beef, fish and fruit (Serecon Management Consulting, 2009). However in some areas it is not self-sufficient at all, such as in the production of grains (14 percent self sufficient) and oils (10 percent self sufficient) (MAL, 2006). Most of the agriculture within the RDKB and the RDCK is small scale but a wide variety of items are grown. Because of their size, these operations do not at the moment have the capacity for investments in things such as mechanization that would increase their production and reduce their costs (Brynne, 2009). Nevertheless a wide variety of fruit and vegetable crops are grown in the two regional districts. It is very likely that the production of some crops, such as fruit crops, are concentrated in only some areas, such as Creston and Grand Forks. Regional capacity for grain production could be a limiting factor in regional food self-sufficiency. Grains are grown in Grand Forks and Creston and efforts are being made to foster an expansion in grain production through the Local Grain Revolution in which residents purchase shares in grain crops in advance of planting to provide farmers with stability and assurance of markets. Meat is produced within the region on a number of farms, most of which are small holdings. In the RDCK, there are over 10,000 cattle and calves and over 12,000 poultry on over 400 farms (RDCK, 2010). Sheep, goats and pigs are also raised in the RDCK in smaller numbers (under 826, 423 and 189 animals respectively) (RDCK, 2010). Similar numbers are not available for RDKB at this point in time. Both Regional Districts are undertaking Regional Agriculture Area Plans in the next year to provide some information on crops that can be grown in the region. There is little information on the range of crops that can be grown in Rossland. Regional farmers face many barriers including low returns on their products and there has been a considerable deskilling of the population. Farmers face huge challenges getting their products into major grocery chains (Brynne, 2009). Roughly half of the region’s farmland lies fallow on a regular basis (Brynne, 2009). Currently, given global food markets and the large amounts of food that are available at very low prices, achieving reasonable economic returns through local food production is very challenging. Average farm sales were below $60,000 in both Central Kootenay and Kootenay Page 52 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report Boundary Regional Districts (Penfold, 2009). The average net return for farms in the region is extremely low ($5,422 in Central Kootenay and $1,680 in Kootenay Boundary) (Penfold, 2009). At those net returns, there is simply no incentive now for farmers to expand their crops or new farmers to enter the market. Thus the number of people engaged in farming in the population has declined dramatically over the last century. In 2006, there were 29,870 farm operators in BC, comprising 0.7 percent of the population (Statistics Canada, nd). Moreover, over half of those farm operators in BC have off-farm jobs or businesses (Statistics Canada, nd). In the region, there were 1445 farm operators (855 in Central Kootenay and 590 in Kootenay Boundary) (Penfold, 2009). The mean age of farmers is also rising and hovers between 50 and 60 in the region. Most young people are not interested or do not have the capital to take up farming. If this trend continues, valuable farming skills could be lost, and there will be insufficient people to take over the operation of existing farms. It is very challenging to get estimates of the number of backyard farmers or gardeners producing food in the region or the quantity of food they produce. At the height of the US Victory Garden program in the US, 40 percent of US vegetable needs were produced in backyard gardens (Brynne, 2009) raising concerns whether in a less favourable climate such as Canada, we could not actually produce enough food to be regionally self-sufficient. Buyer expectations of low food prices (10 percent of total household expenses in 2005 versus 19 percent in 1961) are a significant barrier to profitability in local agriculture and therefore to regional food self-sufficiency. Local producers often cannot compete with industrial scale producers with more productive land and very low labour costs in other countries. Nevertheless there has been a significant revival in interest in local food production. This has resulted in the establishment of a multitude of local groups such as the Kootenay Food Strategy Society, the Kootenay Local Agricultural Society, the Kootenay Organic Growers Society, and Rossland REAL food specifically geared to promoting local food production and preserving and enhancing local food production skills. There is limited food processing capacity within the region. The region currently has no freezing or canning facilities (RDCK, 2010). There is also a lack of storage facilities (Hackenbrook et al., 2010). Grain milling can be done on a small scale in Creston, Nelson and Grand Forks (Pride of the Valley milling), but also can be undertaken through home milling. Packaging is done on a small scale by local farmers, such as those selling under the Kootenay Mountain Grown label. Local meat processing and egg sales are seriously constrained by government regulation. Under BC legislation passed in 2004, all meat for human consumption must come from a provincially or federally licensed slaughter facility, or abattoir. Many small abattoirs closed their operations due to the costs associated with getting licensed. The closest poultry abattoirs are in Salmon Arm, and Keremeos. A Kootenay Mobile Poultry Abattoir, that processes as many as 500 chickens a day, based out of Cranbrook, was established in 2009 (Stueck, 2010). A red Page 53 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report meat abattoir, Tarzwell Farms, is situated in Creston and a second transitional slaughterhouse for red meat, which is pursuing licensing, is located in Rock Creek (BC Centre for Disease Control, 2010). Local eggs also cannot be sold (except at the farmer’s place of residence or in a farmer’s market) unless they are graded and marked in accordance with the Canada Agricultural Products Act. There are two licensed egg-grading stations in the area in Creston and in Rock Creek (Zwicker, 2010). Current distribution channels are also problematic. Many of the food items sold in multi-national grocery store chains, such as Safeway, even if grown locally, are often transported to a central warehouse, which can be in a different province, and then back to the grocery store, adding many unnecessary kilometers to their travel (Brynne, 2009). These transportation channels, and the policies of the grocers, or the ownership of the grocery stores, would have to be reoriented to have regional food self-sufficiency. While independent grocers in the region, such as the Kootenay Country Store Co-operative and Ferarro Foods, are often highly supportive of local producers and will allow direct transport of foods from the producer to the grocery store, these independent grocers are becoming increasingly uncommon (Brynne, 2009). Global agricultural output projections are positive but could be negatively affected by a number of issues including increased energy and input costs. On a global level, long-term food production projections from the FAO are optimistic (WBGU, 2007). For example, the annual growth rate for world cereal production is projected to increase from 1 percent to 1.4 percent by 2015, eventually falling to 1.2 percent over the long-term (WBGU, 2007). However, these projections and conclusions are not completely supported by ongoing trends. Food demand is currently outstripping production and as a result reserves for some major crops have been declining (Bals et al., 2008). Food prices, particularly for cereals, have already been increasing around the world and may continue to do so (Bals et al., 2008). This could be offset slightly by higher food prices driving more investment in agriculture (Bals et al., 2008). As outlined above the following trends could negatively affect global food production. Increased energy and input costs. Increasing energy and input costs (decline in supply, decrease in hydroelectric production capacity, regulated carbon economy) and increasing energy demand in all parts of the world could have a significant effect on global agriculture (Bals et al., 2008). Food production, processing and distribution are all highly energy intensive. It is estimated that producing one calorie of food requires 10 calories of fossil fuels, leading some researchers to suggest that we are literally eating fossil fuels (Pfiefer, 2006). Many of our gains in food production in the last century have been based largely on increases in the use of fossil fuel inputs, especially fossil-fuel based fertilizer (Pfiefer, 2006). If fossil fuel prices increase over the next several decades, which they are projected to as a result of declines in global oil production due to peak oil, so too will the costs of food production, processing and distribution (Pfiefer, Page 54 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report 2006), and if fossil fuels reach a point whereby they are significantly less available, overall global food production could decline significantly. Food distribution systems, which rely heavily on fossil fuel dependent modes of transport, such as trucks and planes, will also be dramatically affected if energy prices increase and will result in higher food prices and potentially reduced food security. The costs of other agricultural inputs are also increasing including fertilizer and pesticide costs, in part because of increasing energy costs but also because of depletion and therefore increasing prices of certain other inputs. Water costs may also increase in the future as a result of increasing water demand due to lifestyle changes and urbanization in many countries (Bals et al., 2008). Population Increases. The global population is projected to continue to increase (from 6.5 billion people to 9 billion people in 2050) and the population of many countries and regions of the world including British Columbia is expected to increase. Food insecurity already exists on a global level for many populations (FAO, 2008) with 850 million people, mostly in developing countries, chronically hungry or malnourished (Bals et al., 2008). At the moment this is primarily an access issue. Sufficient food is available but these people do not have adequate income to access it (Bals et al., 2008). The global food security situation has improved dramatically over the last thirty years, largely due to improvements in food accessibility with lower food prices and significant income growth in developing countries (Schmidhuber and Tubiello, 2007). The increases in agricultural output required to meet global population increases are forecast to occur and it is expected that the number and/or percentage of undernourished people in the world will decline by 2080 (Schmidhuber and Tubiello, 2007). Dietary Shifts. Changes to a more meat, dairy and cereal centered diet in many countries, such as China and India has and will continue to increase requirements for cropland globally (Bals et al., 2008). Meat consumption has doubled globally in the last 25 years (Bals et al., 2008). If this trend continues and a meat, dairy and cereal centered diet are adopted globally, global production of some crops may have to double to meet demand (Bals et al., 2008). Loss of Arable Land. Arable land is being lost and degraded around the world (possibly as much as 0.5 percent annually) due to a number of factors (Bals et al., 2008). Urbanization of farmland in both developed and developing countries including Canada is a key trend leading to not only loss of farmland but also the contamination of adjacent farmland (Bals et al., 2008; Serecon Management Consulting, 2009). This trend is predicted to continue in developed countries shifting greater reliance for food production on developing countries (WBGU, 2007). There is also a trend towards the increased use of agricultural production land for biofuels crops. This trend will be driven partly by increases in oil prices, but also by the desire to reduce GHG emissions in the Page 55 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report transport sector (Bals et al., 2008). Diversion of cropland to non-food crops will likely reduce global food production. This is already a critical problem in British Columbia where the Fraser Valley is one of our most agricultural productive areas, but is subject to significant pressures from urbanization. Development pressure is also high locally in some orchard areas in Creston (RDKB, 2010), as well as in the airport lands around Castlegar. Analyses of the implications of biofuels for food security have been both positive and negative (Schmidhuber and Tubiello, 2007). Matching Supply and Demand In theory there is enough land to supply the region’s food needs. Based on the MAL estimate of 0.542 hectares per person, 45,392 ha of farmland would be required to support the existing population, of which 4540 ha would have to be irrigated. This total amount is far less than the existing ALR land of 117,367 ha within the region, and in farms in the region of 80,598 ha, but far exceeds the amount of land currently in crops in the region (under 18,027 ha) (Penfold, 2009). This is a back of the envelope calculation that does not take into consideration what percentage of the ALR or farmland is arable, the kinds of crops that can be produced on the arable land, and how much is irrigated or has the potential to be irrigated in the region. It is consistent with other estimates however that suggest that in the Kootenay agricultural region there are about 0.5 to 1.5 ha of farmland per person (Hackenbrook et al., 2010). Thus on the face of it, it seems that there is sufficient land within the region to be food secure. However, initial GIS analysis of the ALR land in Kaslo and Area D suggested that over 80 percent of the ALR land however is still forested and not used for agricultural purposes (Hackenbrook et al., 2010). In addition, more information is required regarding the amount of class 1-3 land in the region. Other factors will influence regional food security. Although there may be enough land in the region to support food security, many other factors will determine regional food security. For example, BC government agrologists have stated that water will be an extremely limiting factor for any agricultural production outside the Fraser Valley (Vancouver Sun, 2007). Theoretically, at the right price, and if water is available, much of the agricultural land could be irrigated, if the market forces supported production of certain crops on a more profitable basis. Future Climate Change Food Impacts for Rossland Local Food Production Higher annual temperature averages could result in a longer local growing season allowing for a broader array of crops and increased local yields. Higher summer day and nighttime maximums, averages and minimums may alter plant growth. Page 56 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report Decreased precipitation and increased evaporation may result in increased watering needs. Increases in pests and diseases may result in decreased local yields. Increases in frequency and severity of extreme precipitation events (hail, rainstorms) may result in crop destruction and damage and increased soil runoff. Increases in frequency and severity of wildfires may result in crop destruction. Higher summer temperatures may result in greater thermal stress for livestock. Higher winter temperatures may result in less winter kill and lower overwintering feed and heating costs for livestock. Increase in unpredictability of temperatures may make it more challenging for growers to know what to plant from season to season and negatively affect pollinators. International Food Production Extreme events, such as wildfire or snowstorms, could result in road closures and regional food shortage. Temperature increases, reduced rainfall and extreme events in other parts of the world, could result in higher food prices internationally and in Rossland. Temperature increases, reduced rainfall and extreme events in other parts of the world could result in less food available for purchase from outside the region. Indirect effects of climate change (i.e. political unrest, economic collapse) could result in reduced food supply to the region. Increased temperatures, pollution from rising sea levels and CO2 in atmosphere increasing the acidification of oceans could result in significantly reduced ocean food production. Extreme events, such as droughts or hurricanes, in important growing regions could cause temporary shortages of some foods or increases in food prices. Summary The food security portion of this document is provided to ensure that this vulnerability and risk backgrounder is complete. For the full analysis of how climate change might affect food security on a global and local level, the Food Security Backgrounder and Group Vulnerability and Risk Assessment should be consulted. Page 57 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report The biophysical impacts of climate change on food systems are expected to cause regional shifts in agricultural production with the higher latitude temperate regions of the world experiencing increases in agricultural production, where water supplies are adequate, and the lower latitude tropical regions of the world experiencing degreases in agricultural production. Global food security is not expected to be impacted significantly by climate change on a biophysical level, however developing nations are expected to have to start importing more of their food. However current analyses of climate change and food security do not sufficiently account for indirect impacts of climate change on socioeconomic and geopolitical structures. In addition, all of the models that provide a relatively optimistic overall outlook for food security generally assume mean climate change of 3° C or less, and do not consider the possibility of major abrupt climate or socioeconomic change, or a significant increase in the number of extreme events. The non-climate change factors, such as population increases and increases in input costs, also must be considered. Thus overall, while some outlooks for global and therefore local food security are optimistic, these are highly uncertain and it would be prudent from an adaptation perspective to start considering opportunities for increased local food production. On a local level, the region does not currently produce a significant proportion of the food it consumes and there are barriers to increasing local food production in terms of the regional processing capacity, regional base of farmers and the current low returns on agricultural production. However there are opportunities to change this and from an agricultural land perspective, the region does have the potential to be more food secure. Projected climate changes, such as increased temperatures, increased precipitation, and increased growing degree days, may provide more opportunities for agricultural production in Rossland. However other climate change impacts, such as a greater incidence of pests and diseases, increased variability and an increase in extreme events, could negatively impact local agricultural production. Nevertheless, Rossland alone is not likely to have sufficient agricultural land or a long enough growing season to be locally food secure so regional initiatives will likely have to be pursued. Most adaptation actions that increase local food production will nevertheless help to contribute to local food security and given the uncertainties associated with global food production levels would be advisable to consider. Page 58 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report IV: Action Plans The action plans section is further divided into three subsections. First the action planning process is presented, then the priority actions are identified and finally the more detailed action planning data base, from which the priority actions were selected is provided. The more detailed action planning data base also includes the goals and objectives for each issue area that are not included in the priority action tables. Action Planning Process Action planning was undertaken in a number of steps: Goals and Objectives First, key adaptation goals and objectives were developed for each issue area. Goals are broadly stated and represent the community vision. Objectives are more specific guiding statements that detail what will be done to meet the goals. A general set of goals and objectives that cross-cut the four issue areas was also developed relating to community education and awareness, emergency preparedness and finding synergies. Action Planning Data Base Second, climate change adaptation plans from jurisdictions around the world were scanned, including notably, Keene, New Hampshire, London, England the governments of Australia and Germany, and Elkford, Kimberley, Castlegar and Kaslo/Area D in BC. Actions in these plans potentially relevant to Rossland were identified and a data base of actions relating to Rossland’s four issue areas was developed and organized in accordance with the key adaptation goals and objectives. Actions provide detailed direction regarding what actions will be taken by who and when to achieve the objectives. Potential strategies to achieve the actions were also incorporated for some actions. Review of the Action Planning Data Base The Action Planning Data Base was reviewed by Steering Committee members to identify any actions that they felt were missing from the data base. These additional actions were incorporated. The Data Base was then reviewed in the context of ongoing City initiatives and plans, most importantly the Strategic Sustainability Plan and the Official Community Plan to note where the City is already taking action, or where similar recommendations have already been made. Finally most of the actions were reviewed with City Staff to identify further what the City is already undertaking or plans to undertake, and discuss issues of cost, feasibility and applicability of the actions. These comments were incorporated into the data base. Page 59 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report Prioritization of Potential Actions A public event was conducted on September 9, 2010. The Action Planning Data Base and Vulnerability and Risk Backgrounder were circulated and posted on the Visions to Action website a week in advance of the event. It was suggested that the principles for prioritizing could include selecting actions that: are “no­regrets” climate change adaptations that provide benefits to the community whether anticipated climate changes materialize or not; are more urgent based on our Vulnerability and Risk Assessment; complement other community initiatives; will be acceptable to the community; are likely to promote the achievement of the goals and objectives for their issue area; are affordable based on current City budgets; and are consistent with existing provincial programs or grant funding. At the event the group was divided into five working tables, one for each issue area and the general section. At each table, participants were given N/3 yes votes for each issue area where N= the number of actions for that issue area in the data base. For most of the issue areas, except infrastructure, this was a total of 4 yes votes. In the case of infrastructure, participants received 7 votes. They were given the same number of no votes for each issue area. Participants were asked to work independently to identify their 4 to 7 priority actions and comment on those actions. Then they each presented their priorities to the group and provided their comments. The group worked through each person’s priorities and participants were permitted to change their priorities based on the input of other group members. The groups were also asked to make comments on any goals or objectives that they disagreed with. The Action Planning Data Base for food was taken to a Rossland REAL Food event to allow participants in that event to vote in the same manner as the participants at the public event. Subsequent to the public event, other groups such as the Energy Task Force and Water Stewardship Task Force as well as Sustainability Commission and Steering Committee members that were unable to make the event were invited to vote in the same manner. The votes were then tallied and the 19 priority actions were identified. Further Analysis of Priority Actions The priority actions were then further analyzed to identify their urgency for implementation, the potential lead in implementing, the potential cost of implementing and potential funding sources, including the likelihood of requiring grant funding. These are very preliminary assessments and if the City and Sustainability Commission are proceed with implementing certain actions, more detailed analysis will have to be undertaken, most importantly with respect to grant funding opportunities. Page 60 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative Approval of Priority Actions The final report including the list of priority actions were submitted to the Steering Committee and Sustainability Commission for review on September 23, 2010. The Steering Committee and Sustainability Commission met on September 28, 2010 to recommend final minor adjustments and vote to approve the action planning package for submission to CBT and recommendation to Council. Priority Climate Change Adaptation Actions This section lists the 19 priority actions, and their associated adaptation goals, selected at the public event in September 2010. They are organized in accordance with their issue area with preliminary thoughts with regard to urgency, lead, cost and funding sources. The larger action planning data base which includes all of the goals and objectives for each issue area, the lower priority actions, potential strategies for many of the actions and the analysis of what the City is already doing, is provided in the next section. General Key Adaptation Goals: ID 1.1.1 Residents are knowledgeable and continue to learn about climate change adaptation Climate change adaptation is mainstreamed into City and community operations Action Undertake a public outreach regarding specific climate change adaptation actions as they are implemented. Urg Lead Cost Funding Source H City/ SC L City/SC Description The outreach should be low-cost and simple i.e. mention of adaptation in conjunction with a City initiative in a City or Sustainability Commission newsletter, or as part of an event. The intent is to help residents to understand that adaptation is part of the rationale for certain actions, such as water conservation and fire smarting and to foster greater buy in for those actions. Ensure City committees, 1.5.1 H City L City The intent of this action is to ensure that plans and processes consider climate change is considered in City decisionclimate impacts/adaptation in making. It is not intended to be onerous, but their decision making. rather a lens that is applied to major decisions, much in the manner that the Strategic Sustainability Plan has been referenced as a standing line item in Staff memos to Council. Urgency: High – Implement in 1-3 years; Medium – Implement in 3-5 years; Low – Implement in next 5-10 years Cost: High – < $50,000; Medium – $10,00 to $50,000; Low – > $10,000 Lead: SC – Sustainability Commission; WSTF – Water Stewardship Task Force; ETF – Energy Task Force Page 61 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative Infrastructure Key Adaptation Goals: Rossland’s infrastructure is resilient to climate change Climate change is considered in infrastructure upgrades as well as new residential development and renovations Alternate management approaches (such as conservation, on-site or neighbourhood water retention etc.) are considered in place of infrastructure upgrades ID Action Urg Lead Cost Funding Source Description Given that the City is preparing an Infrastructure Plan, this is an opportunity to ensure that consideration is given to climate change impacts in that plan with limited additional cost. The potential for more frequent and intense extreme events and earlier spring run off will likely have some infrastructure implications and should be considered in the new plan. Local governments have limited resources to develop best practices guides and pilot innovative climate change adaptation measures such as new drainage and road paving techniques. If other agencies were to provide funding for such projects, they could be potentially adopted on a larger scale. The Sustainability Commission (SC) could play an important advocacy role in encouraging these types of pilot programs. Voluntary guidelines for builders outlining how to build a climate change resilient home could increase the number of these types of homes in Rossland. The guidelines need not be extensive, but grant funding would probably be necessary to facilitate their development. The SC could play a role in developing grant applications. The Subdivision and Development Servicing Bylaw was prepared in 1998 and variances are required for some innovative on-site or subdivision water retention techniques, such as swales. These water retention techniques are broadly supported in the OCP and can be less expensive than more conventional stormwater management approaches, such as curbs 2.1.2 2.1.3 2.1.4 Give consideration to climate change in the new City of Rossland infrastructure upgrade assessment and plan, and encourage Council to implement the plan. H City L City 2.1.5 Encourage other agencies at the regional, provincial and federal level, such as CBT, to prepare best practices guides and provide funding for pilot programs to address climate change in mountain climates. H SC L SC 2.6.3 Prepare climate change design guidelines for new builds and renovations to reduce overheating, basement flooding, fire risk and extreme event damage. M City/ SC M Grants 2.10.1 Revise the Subdivision and Development Servicing Bylaw to require on-site or subdivision water retention and minimized runoff design in new developments. H City M City Page 62 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative 2.10.2 Promote on-site water retention, active storage capacity and permeable surfaces on existing residential properties through education and incentives. H SC/ City M SC/ City and gutters. Revising the Subdivision and Development Servicing Bylaw to remove barriers to their application might encourage their greater use. The Subdivision and Development Servicing Bylaw has recently been budgeted for revision. Minimizing runoff through water retention techniques is a major theme in the OCP and could be critical low-cost adaptation measure reducing the need for some infrastructure upgrades. The SC and City could play a partnership role in promoting these measures. Water Key Adaptation Goals: Rossland has accurate information regarding annual stream flows, snow pack and water use Rossland manages its existing water supply without the need for additional reservoir capacity The impact of potentially decreased water supply in late summer/early fall as a result of climate change is minimized without creating additional costs to tax payers Rossland is prepared to respond to droughts Ecosystem needs are considered in Rossland’s strategic water management ID Action Urg Lead Cost Funding Source Description The City is already taking significant action on this front with the installation of water meters to measure usage and the planned increase in manual monitoring on our creeks. Prioritization of this action is intended as a show of support for those actions to ensure that they continue and to provide impetus for the analysis and publication of the data once it is available. Rossland’s per capita water use is very high compared to many other jurisdictions in North America and the world. Measures to reduce it just make sense from many perspectives – climate change adaptation, sustainability, reduced future infrastructure costs, reduced sewer treatment costs and the potential to maintain downstream flows. These measures do not have to be high cost, particularly with the range of billing options made possible with water meters, and potentially grants available through CBT Water Smart for education. 3.1.1 3.1.2 Improve our data regarding water supply and demand. H City L City 3.2.1 Reduce per capita water use through a combination of regulation, education, incentives and targets. H City/ SC/ WSTF L-M SC/City/ CBT Water Smart Page 63 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative 3.4.1 Create a watershed and/or a water management plan. M City/ WSTF M City 3.5.1 Encourage residents to utilize alternative water sources for non-potable water use needs. M SC/ WSTF L SC This has been recommended in both the SSP and OCP and could be accomplished at limited cost by updating the existing draft plan. A plan could encompass many of the water actions outlined in this report including a drought plan (3.3.1) with trigger points for water restrictions in extreme climate change event years. Communities around the world use rainwater and greywater for non-potable water use needs such as lawn or garden watering. Although provincial legislation currently restricts the range of uses of greywater, this could change in the future. Although rainwater barrels (as opposed to cisterns) do not provide a significant reduction in potable water demand, they promote an ethic of conservation and could be promoted at low cost through the education strategies adopted for action 3.2.1. They also assist in on-site water retention. Wide use of cisterns could have a notable impact on Rossland’s water demand. Energy Key Adaptation Goals: Rossland’s vulnerability to the impacts of rising energy prices is minimized Rossland’s vulnerability to temporary and long-term energy supply interruptions is minimized Rossland has a diversified energy supply through local renewable energy generation ID 4.1.2 Develop a Community and Corporate Energy Plan. Urg Lead Cost Funding Source Description M City/ ETF M City/ SC/ Grants A Community Energy Plan with targets and measures for community and corporate energy management has been suggested in the SSP, OCP and by the Energy Task Force (ETF). It would assist the City in achieving both climate change adaptation goals and carbon neutral commitments, while potentially on a Corporate level reducing City costs if energy savings are achieved. It is also a symbolic issue, establishing the City’s willingness to lead by example. Templates exist and this could likely be done at low cost with the help of the ETF. Page 64 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative 4.1.5 Control sprawl and promote infill development. H City L City 4.1.8 Identify and implement energy conservation measures on a Corporate City level. H City/ ETF M City/ Grants 4.3.1 Provide incentives for the development of renewable energy facilities. M City H City/ Grants The City is already taking significant action on this front and the intent of prioritizing this action is to provide support to those initiatives and ensure that they continue and are reflected in Council decisions. In the absence of a Community and Corporate Energy Plan, the City can start taking actions to implement energy conservation measures, such as the use of lower wattage bulbs in streetlights, or a green fleet program. These actions will both help to reduce City costs and contribute to the achievement of carbon neutral commitments. Although the City’s contribution to community energy use is relatively small, it was repeatedly noted that the City must lead by example if they want residents to take action on energy conservation. Renewable energy is a significant contributor to community energy needs in many European countries at reasonable rates of return. Although renewables have yet to achieve grid parity in BC, there is significant interest in them, and small pilot projects could be fostered through the use of incentives. Renewable energy is supported in the OCP. Ultimately this kind of initiative could produce economic development spin-off benefits, but at the outset might require grant funding. Food Key Adaptation Goals: Rossland is a food secure community and its vulnerability to potential declines in global food production are minimized Local farmers and residential growers are supported Agricultural lands are identified and protected ID 5.1.2 Promote increased local food production and processing. Urg Lead Cost Funding Source Description H REAL Food/ SC M SC/City/ Grants This could include measures such as encouraging backyard gardening, mentoring programs and workshops. Rossland REAL Food is already playing a significant role in this area and with a continuation of their funding may be able to continue to do so at a relatively low cost. Page 65 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative 5.3.1 Ensure local growers have sufficient land access. M City L City 5.4.1 Establish a community composting system. M City M City/ RDKB 5.5.1 Protect agricultural land and topsoil through incentives, education, planning and regulation. M City/ REAL Food L City For limited expenditure, the City could further designate unused public lands suitable for growing as additional community gardens and incorporate garden designations into development density bonuses. While moving towards food self-sufficiency may require a regional level solution, the City could provide assistance promoting additional backyard gardening or small-scale agriculture through in greenhouse development or the purchase of private land for demonstration farms. This would require a higher level of funding and the potential water consumption implications might have to be assessed. A community composting system for yard and/or food waste system would not only provide benefits for food production, but also for reducing Rossland’s contribution to the waste stream. Yard waste could be composted in dispersed neighbourhood sites. Protecting potential agricultural land from development and ensuring that development, renovations and landscaping are done in a manner that protects topsoil are critical components of maintaining the potential for future agriculture. With some funding, Rossland REAL Food could play a role in the education component of this action, but the City has a key land-use planning role to play. Action Planning Data Base This data base presents the goals and objectives and all of the actions considered in the action planning process. The goals and objectives were evaluated and endorsed at the action planning event with some minor changes. Many of the actions have associated potential strategies, which are also provided. It was decided not to vote on the strategies in the action planning process, as it was felt they might be too prescriptive. Nevertheless they are included with the intention of providing some suggestions to implementers as to how the actions could be achieved based on approaches undertaken in other jurisdictions. Page 66 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report Categories of Actions To assist in interpretation with regard to what is involved, most of the strategies and some of the actions have been categorized based on the types of activities that local governments can undertake. The categories utilized are a follows: Conducting research or gathering more information regarding priority issue areas and climate change adaptation; (Res) Motivating and educating the community and increasing the capacity of City Staff; (Educ) Setting an example through demonstration projects and management of City facilities; (Examp) Setting community targets for behavioral change; (Targ) Providing incentives or establishing programs for behavioral changes or other actions; (Incent) Establishing regulations through approval functions or bylaws; (Reg) Planning for emergency and other climate change situations; (Plan) Engaging and investing in appropriate land management (City land, and land in the City interface) to reduce climate risks; (Land Man) Investing appropriately in infrastructure upgrades to reflect future climate scenarios; (Infra) and Working collaboratively with partners, such as other levels of government. (Coll) Interpreting the Tables The priority actions are highlighted in bold and in green. An additional 15 actions that received some level of public and Steering Committee support, but not as much as the priority actions, are highlighted in green but are not bolded. The other actions that were not identified as priority actions are included for consideration at some later date. Actions that were not supported are shaded in pink. The comments made regarding actions at the public event, and the considerations associated with the actions identified in the review of what the City is already undertaking and what is feasible are also included. References to where actions are supported by strategic actions in the Strategic Sustainability Plan (SSP) and by measures in the Official Community Plan (OCP) are included. Strategies that received particular endorsement are italicized. Page 67 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative I: General This section presents general action items related to community education and awareness, emergency preparedness and finding synergies, that cross-cut all four priority issue areas. Key Adaptation Goals: Residents are knowledgeable and continue to learn about climate change adaptation Rossland is prepared for climate related emergencies Synergies between climate change adaptation actions and other sustainability and City initiatives are recognized Climate change adaptation is mainstreamed into City and community operations Objectives and Actions: Type Action Votes Potential Strategies Considerations Objective 1: Educate the public and City staff regarding climate change adaptation 1.1.1 1.1.2 Undertake a public outreach regarding specific climate change adaptation actions as they are implemented. Encourage other agencies, such as Columbia Basin Trust to continue climate change adaptation capacity building 5 Incorporate climate change adaptation education into existing events such as Earth Day and city newsletters (Educ) Encourage businesses, residents and institutions to prepare for the challenges and opportunities of climate change (Educ) Public Comment: Make the education very specific around certain actions when they are implemented SSP/OCP: SSP Strategic actions #88 and #127 support information dissemination to the community and training for teachers with regard to sustainability and other key policy issues. Encourage other agencies to develop climate change adaptation guides for residents, developers and City staff (Coll) Encourage other agencies to undertake focused capacity building exercises for City Staff to be accessed on an as need basis (Coll) Public Comment: Encourage CBT to fund implementation. Page 68 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative Objective 2: Ensure the City is prepared for all Climate Change related emergencies 1.2.1 Identify all areas at risk of wildfire, flood and landslide (Res) 1.2.2 Ensure that the City Emergency Plan sufficiently addresses climate change related emergencies 1.2.3 1.2.4 Increase public awareness of what to do in extreme weather events and emergencies (Educ) 2 Review the Emergency Plan for its coverage of heatwaves, ice storms, windstorms or other climate related emergencies (Plan) Review the Emergency Plan to ensure a communications plan incorporating provisions for cellular failure, local and regional communication, and chains of command are addressed (Plan) Ensure that alternate routes for emergency situations are identified (Plan) Ensure that shelters are designated for extreme weather events including heatwaves (Plan/Infr) Identify and publicize distribution points for lifeessential goods and services (Plan) Provide the public with copies of the Emergency Plan or “what to do in an emergency pamphlets” (Educ) Run emergency simulations (Educ) Review Comment: There is limited area vulnerable to flooding in Rossland, although some basements are at risk. Wildfire risk areas are identified in the Community Wildfire protection plan. Landslides have been a low historical risk but could be assessed. Review Comment: A City Emergency Plan has been prepared, but did not specifically address climate change considerations. Major City emergencies are dealt with through PEP (the Provincial Emergency Preparedness Program). Any major emergency requiring evacuation or outside assistance would trigger PEP and the Red Cross and RCMP would come to assist. Some areas such as the arena and the Prestige (which has a generator) have been designated as emergency shelters. Review Comment: Although the City has an emergency plan it could benefit from additional public awareness. Create programs to provide assistance after the emergency events (Plan) Page 69 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative 1.2.5 1.2.6 1.2.7 1.2.8 Train City staff with regard to what to do in a weather related emergency (Plan) Review and update the emergency plan every five years (Plan) Ensure the Community Wildfire protection plan continues to be implemented (Land/Incent) Review Comment: City staff have received emergency preparedness training, but not weather related emergency training 3 Consider adding to the Community Wildfire Protection Plan (Plan) Develop a joint plan with the local forest tenure holder (Atco) to proactively manage the forests in Rossland’s watershed to reduce the risk of a major wildfire (Plan) Determine whether fire retardant chemicals can be utilized in the watershed (Plan) Develop a list of locally available light-footprint machinery that can be utilized to cut access and fire break corridors (Plan) Maintain and improve communications with the SE Fire Centre in Castlegar (Coll) Public Comments: Wildfire needs to be more on the radar. The City needs a continuous, comprehensive wildfire interface plan that includes viewscapes. Publicize the fire angle on climate change so people understand why fire smarting is necessary and are not upset when trees are cut. Public Comment: Need to determine the impact of a serious fire in the watershed on water supply. Review Comment: Some of these may not be within the City’s jurisdiction to decide i.e. chemicals in the watershed as large wildfires are addressed by the provincial government. Objective 3: Seek and recognize synergies in climate change adaptation actions 1.3.1 and 1.3.2 Seek synergies between sustainability, climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation measures 2 Review climate change mitigation requirements and plans to identify synergies between mitigation and adaptation actions (Plan) Outline how adaptation actions will achieve sustainability objectives as well as adaptation actions (Educ) Link adaptation actions to the Strategic Sustainability Plan and Rossland’s Vision for 2030 when implementing (Educ) Incorporate the goals and objectives of this Public Comments: Embed the Climate Change Adaptation plan in the SSP. Build on the momentum of the provincial policy to be carbon neutral. Review Comments: There are opportunities for overlap between adaptation actions and the requirement that Rossland be Carbon Neutral by 2012, particularly in the energy section. SSP actions consistent with potential adaptation actions have been identified in this data base. Page 70 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative adaptation plan into Rossland’s OCP and SSP (Plan) 1.3.3 Regularly scan for opportunities associated with climate change, such as different types of tourism or agriculture (Plan) Objective 4: Continue to learn about climate change and update climate change adaptation action plans as required 1.4.1 Pursue the establishment of a permanent meteorological station in Rossland or work with Red Mountain Resort to expand their monitoring (Coll) 1.4.2 Review emerging climate change information and update climate change adaptation action plans and City procedures every five years to factor in new climate patterns and extremes (Res/Plan) 3 Public Comments: Weather data is crucial and this is an action much more important than planning. Our last data was in 1990. Red Mountain Resort has monitored snow, wind and temperature since 2004 and reports the information on their website. Rain could be added to the monitoring with some sort of agreement. People are motivated and usually surprised by data. We should have a climate professional confirm what we should be monitoring. Page 71 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative Objective 5: Mainstream climate change adaptation into City operations 1.5.1 Ensure City committees plans and processes consider climate impacts/adaptation in their decision making (Plan) 3 Review City committees and processes that would benefit from adding a consideration of climate impacts/adaptation to their decision making (Plan) Require identified committees and processes to consider the climate change adaptation goals, objectives and actions in this plan (Plan) Public Comment: If this doesn’t occur, then educating the public becomes a bit of a waste. Page 72 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative II: Infrastructure Key Adaptation Goals: Rossland’s infrastructure is resilient to climate change Climate change is considered in infrastructure upgrades as well as new residential development and renovations Climate change impacts to infrastructure are monitored and addressed Alternate management approaches (such as conservation, on-site or neighbourhood water retention etc.) are considered in place of infrastructure upgrades Adaptation Objectives and Actions: All Infrastructure Type Action Votes Potential Strategies Considerations Objective 1: Ensure climate change is taken into consideration in the design of future infrastructure 2.1.1 Ensure that City staff remain current with Engineering best practices for Infrastructure Design (Res) 1 Ensure City Staff have the opportunity to attend appropriate conferences and learning events 2.1.2, 2.1.3 and 2.1.4 Give consideration to climate change in the new City of Rossland infrastructure upgrade assessment and plan, and encourage Council to implement the plan (Plan) 6 Ensure all new infrastructure is located, designed and constructed for the climate it will experience over its design life Elements that are difficult to change during the design life of the infrastructure including the location, orientation, thermal mass and structural materials should be given highest priority Public Comment: This is important – sustainability is larger than climate change. Review Comment: City Staff already remain current with best practices for Infrastructure Design. Public Comment: This should be a matter of due course (x2). Climate change should be considered in all City decisions – infrastructure as well as everything else. Review Comment: Climate change will be considered at a high level in the new infrastructure plan. Best practices already account for minor and major storms within existing expected impact levels. In some cases, old infrastructure presents design restrictions (i.e. can’t upgrade pipes higher in the system if the lower pipes are not built to take the flow.) Page 73 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative 2.1.5 Encourage other agencies at the regional, provincial, and federal level, such as CBT, to prepare best practices guides and provide funding for pilot programs to address climate change in mountain climates (Coll) 5 Encourage Engineers Canada to upgrade their best practices guide to reflect climate change Encourage CBT to prepare a Storm-water best practices manual for the Columbia Basin with collaboration of Basin communities that includes templates and examples Encourage CBT to fund demonstration sites for storm-water best practices Encourage other agencies such as Columbia Basin Trust to develop a better Catch Basin Design and provide grant funding for trials Public Comments: Look at what happened in Aosta, Italy. We need pilot projects to establish the feasibility of some of these adaptation actions. Objective 2: Improve the resilience of existing infrastructure 2.2.1 Monitor existing infrastructure and slopes for climate change impacts and threats 2.2.2 Protect and improve the resilience of existing infrastructure to the impacts of climate change 2 Visually monitor at risk slopes and retaining walls for signs of subsidence or instability (Infra) Specific strategies are addressed in the infrastructure sections below. This section covers only the key strategies. Shovel roofs if there is snow build up Seal cracks in roads Minimize development and vegetation removal on slopes exceeding 30 percent (Reg) Put grates on the front of culvert inlets to reduce debris Review Comment: Infrastructure is already monitored for impacts on an issues basis (i.e. when problems are observed or reported). Retaining walls are being addressed by City Staff through identification of at risk walls and the Retaining Wall Bylaw passed in 2009. Slope subsidence is less of a problem and not inspected. Residents call in if their yards are subsiding and they are checked by Engineering . Public Comments: This should be included in the infrastructure plan and incorporated into action 2.1.4. Review Comments: Preventative maintenance is already undertaken on City infrastructure. For example, the arena roof was upgraded to increase its snow load capacity. Road damage may be too advanced to be prevented through crack sealing, but it could be helpful on some specific roads. Development is already reviewed on a site by site basis and vegetation stripping and/or building are not allowed on at risk slopes or in some cases are only permitted if certain Page 74 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative design requirements are met. Grates are put on culverts on a one off basis if work is being done in the area. Objective 3: Promote greater affordability and quality in future infrastructure upgrades 2.3.1 Explore creating a cooperative of neighbouring local governments to share equipment and manpower for civic infrastructure projects such as road paving (Coll) Review Comments: This is already done with Warfield and Castlegar. Machinery is rented out, parts are exchanged on a cost return basis and manpower is exchanged on a fee basis. Public Comments: This is probably not possible and is not sufficiently related to climate change (x2). Roads Action Votes Potential Strategies Considerations Objective 4: Ensure all future road upgrades take climate change into consideration 2.4.1 Reduce freeze-thaw and heat damage through the use of different road materials Use less frost-susceptible foundation materials to combat freeze-thaw cycles (Infra) Explore heat and cold resistant roadway materials (Infra) Review Comments: New roads already do this. Doing this on existing roads that are being upgraded would double the cost and would not provide assurance that frost heave would not occur. Asphalt is heat and cold resistant. There is only one asphalt provider in BC, so options are pretty limited. Page 75 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative 2.4.2 Improve road drainage systems and update the Subdivision and Development Servicing Bylaw to allow for road drainage system options 4 Retrofit side drains on road structures (Infra) Adapt roads to increase infiltration through the use of swales or French drains potentially connected to a wetland or pond (Infra) Public Comments: Identify what adaptive Subdivision and Servicing bylaw models exist – has there been a good one identified? The Subdivision and Development Servicing bylaw needs to be updated to allow for creative options. Review Comments: Side drains are retrofitted on an as need basis (if it is broken or there is a safety concern) but is not a priority. When storm-water system gets replaced (when roads are repaved) the inlets often get replaced – but we can only replace these things as part of a whole new design in some cases. There is no storm-water system on a lot of roads and there are not runoff issues. Swales are done where it works i.e. swales in Caldera going to a pond. But it is challenging to find a location for wetlands on a hillside. The Subdivision and Servicing Bylaw would need to be rewritten to facilitate this without a variance. Objective 5: Ensure existing roads are maintained as much as possible 2.5.1 Increase the frequency and intensity of road maintenance 1 Seal cracks in roads Public Comments: Well-maintained roads enhance civic pride. We need to educate people on how climate change affects roads. Review Comments: More frequent road maintenance would not help on most roads because they have been left too long without maintenance. More crack sealing might help. Page 76 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative Buildings Type Action Votes Potential Strategies Considerations Objective 6: Ensure City building design standards or guidelines reflect climate change in new builds and renovations 2.6.1 Research and incorporate climate change considerations into City building design standards for new builds and renovations to reduce overheating, basement flooding, fire risk and extreme event damage 2 2.6.2 2.6.3 Incorporate a Wildland-Urban Interface covenant into for new builds in the interface requiring wildfire mitigation measures such as fire resistant roofing, fuel buffer dimensions and spark arresters for wood stoves Prepare climate change design guidelines for new builds and renovations to reduce overheating, basement flooding, fire risk and extreme event damage (Educ) Ban roofing that will not retain snow under most snowfall conditions (Reg) Require the installation of backflow valves in buildings and residences (Reg) Require fire safe construction methods (Reg) Promote an increase in tree cover by 5 percent (Plan/Educ) Promote passive cooling in buildings such as cool roof technology (highly reflective well insulated roofs), green roofs shading elements, reduced lighting building orientation, and ventilation (Educ) 2 6 Public Comments: Our current housing stock is inefficient – let’s build better. Discourage shingle roofs. Public Comment: This is hugely important. Fires will become more prevalent. Consider the same strategies outlined above in 2.6.1 i.e. Promote passive cooling in buildings such as cool roof technology (highly reflective well insulated roofs), green roofs shading elements, reduced lighting building orientation, and ventilation Include pilots, incentives and demonstration sites Public Comments: Start voluntary and then move to standards. This is a building bylaw issue. Review Comments: This is intended to be the more flexible option compared to 2.6.1, making them guidelines rather than standards, but would have less effect. Page 77 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative Objective 7: Increase the number of climate change resilient buildings in Rossland through regulation, education, incentives and pilot programs 2.7.1 and 2.7.2 2.7.3 Prepare residential climate change renovation and maintenance guidelines for existing housing stock that reflect the design guidelines for new housing stock and encourage residents to consider them 4 Consider the same strategies outlined above for standards for new housing stock in 2.6.1 Encourage residents to clear rain gutters and drains on a regular basis (Educ) Publicize the residential climate change design guidelines (Educ) Offer incentives to residents and developers to incorporate new climate change design guidelines into their building (Incent) Public Comments: Citizens need to take responsibility. Education and incentives for renovation and maintenance are good. Support incentives (Revitalization Tax Exemption) to promote renovations (x2). Neutralize disincentives to renovate. Look at the provincial green Building Code (expected) for guideline ideas. Review Comments: This could be linked to proposed Revitalization Program Bylaw (residents can apply for their taxes to remain the same for 5 years after $10,000 in renovations). Establish a green house tour/energy efficient tour to serve as an example of sustainable climate change resilient building (Examp) Objective 8: Ensure City facilities are climate change resilient 2.8.1 Conduct a critical review of existing and proposed City buildings for climate change resilience 2.8.2 Upgrade existing and build new City buildings to reflect the City’s climate change design standards 2 Ensure all new City facilities undergo a climate change checklist based on the climate change design standards before development can proceed (Infra) Showcase best practices in climate change adaptation building design in City facilities (Examp) Avoid locating City facilities in flood or fireprone areas Design new City facilities for ease of future adaptation i.e. with room for shade addition or removal Review Comment: City facilities are already undergoing an audit for GHG emissions. Public Comment: The City has to take the initiative. Review Comment: There is unlikely to be significant investment in City facilities in the short-term. Page 78 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative Storm-sewers, Culverts and Sewers Action Votes Potential Strategies Considerations Objective 9: Ensure storm-water infrastructure will meet future needs 2.9.1 – 2.9.5 Create an integrated overland flow and storm-water/surface water management plan for future expected run off levels 3 Map out all areas that could be potentially at risk of flooding identifying weak/low points in the system (Plan) Identify areas where increased storm-water infrastructure capacity is needed to hold/divert water. Develop a basement flood/storm-water overflow incident reporting system to better identify areas of risk (Plan) Undertake a storm-water risk assessment that incorporates all bridges, culverts, dykes, dams and sewers (Plan) Review and if necessary update the stormwater maintenance program, particularly in priority areas Ensure storm-water flows are kept separate from wastewater sewers (Infra) Coordinate storm-water upgrades with road repair. Public Comments: We need to do an overland flow study/route plan. Integrate 2.9.1-2.9.5 into an overland flow plan, identify areas of risk and implement mitigation as required. This cannot be ignored on the basis of past experience. A chinook winter event could lead to heavier flooding for specific sites. Removing stormwater from the sanitary sewer may create the requirement for more storm sewers. Look for the old storm-sewer studies our institutional memory is not good. Review Comments: The Infrastructure Plan will do some of this and there have been past studies. The City already knows where the weak points and priority areas are. Few basements floods in past five years as a result of heavy rainfall events alone. For the most part most basement floods have occurred for reasons other than weather related events. The City does storm-water models for new subdivisions. There is limited flood risk in Rossland as for the most part excess water just flows down the road, but some basement flooding is likely, and there is the possibility of some sort of flash flood in a restricted area. There is no written maintenance manual – if frequency of storm events increased then the City would increase maintenance. Page 79 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative Objective 10: Reduce need for storm-sewer infrastructure upgrades through innovative planning approaches 2.10.1 Revise the Subdivision and Servicing Bylaw to require on-site water retention and minimized runoff design in new developments 5 2.10.2 Promote on-site water retention, active storage capacity and permeable surfaces in existing residences through education and incentives 9 Ban non-permeable driveways, parking lots and sidewalk surfaces (Reg) Require permeable driveways, absorbent landscaping and retention of natural features (Reg) Create a Net Zero Runoff site plan requirement (Reg) Establish slow release retention drainage pits in new construction sites Develop an experimental and demonstration program for permeable driveway, parking lot, sidewalk surfaces and green streets (Educ) Prepare a greywater reuse package for residents explaining how household wastewater can be utilized to irrigate garden areas (Educ) Public Comments: This is important for both infrastructure and water. Greater retention is important especially in water deficient Rossland. Provide incentives. We need a plan for increased weird weather – we need to better understand the impacts of big water events. Borrow Red Mountain Resort’s guidelines. Review Comments: This is already a priority of the City and is done in most cases where it can be done. There might be an advantage to formalizing it in the Subdivision and Servicing Bylaw. The key would be to make it not too prescriptive. SSP/OCP: Already strongly recommended in SSP #116 and #115 and OCP 23.3.3, 23.3.1 and 23.3.5. Review Comment: Some on-site water retention strategies will increase snow removal costs. The allowable uses for greywater are limited by provincial legislation due to health concerns but there may be some applications. SSP/OCP: Pilot projects at Red Mountain Resort and Redstone recommended in SSP #117. Objective 11: Maintain the existing storm-water system 2.11.1 Conduct annual inspections/ and clean ups/clearing of culverts to reduce flooding risk (Infra) Review Comment: The storm-water system is already maintained and cleared on a regular basis. Page 80 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative 2.11.2 Ensure the existing storm-water system is maintained and inspected (Infra) City of Rossland – Final Report Review Comment: The storm-water system is already maintained and cleared on a regular basis. Objective 12: Ensure that upgrades to the sewer system consider climate change implications 2.12.1 2.12.2 2.12.3 Identify areas where there are existing sewer system capacity constraints (Res) Design future sewer upgrades to prevent overflow events during extreme precipitation events (Infra) If sewer infrastructure upgrades are cost prohibitive, plan for regular system reviews to consider climate change effects and conduct staged upgrades (Plan/Infra) Review Comment: This will be addressed in Infrastructure Plan. Review Comment: Don’t have that many intown sewer overflow events – There are more on the regional line and the ones in town are related to blockage, not the capacity of line. It is not likely that we would get a rainfall event that would exceed the amount of infiltration that already occurs in the spring from ground thaw. Public Comment: This should be part of the Infrastructure Plan. Review Comment: Staged upgrades will likely be necessary anyway. Page 81 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative III: Water Key Adaptation Goals: Rossland has accurate information regarding annual stream flows, snow pack and water use Rossland manages its existing water supply without the need for additional reservoir capacity The impact of potentially decreased water supply in late summer/early fall as a result of climate change is minimized without creating additional costs to tax payers Rossland is prepared to respond to droughts Rossland’s water quality is high Ecosystem needs are considered in Rossland’s strategic water management Potential Water Objectives, Actions and Strategies: Action Votes Potential Strategies Considerations Objective 1: Ensure that our information regarding water supply and demand is accurate 3.1.1 and 3.1.2 Improve our data regarding water supply and demand 10 Increase the manual stream flow monitoring (Res) Support continued Ministry of Environment monitoring of snowpack data (Coll) Use water meter data to determine average per capita use rates in all seasons and typical use profiles (Res Evaluate total water usage against water meter data to ensure that leaks are not a factor in overall water consumption (Res) Public Comment: This is crucial – we have no data. Data regarding supply and demand are both important (x2). Improved data regarding current supply will help us measure change as it happens. It is important to determine use rates so we can create a comprehensive conservation plan. Universal metering provides critical data – consumption meters are cash registers – utilities need meters (x2). Review Comment: The City is planning to improve manual monitoring of Murphy and Topping this year i.e. monthly or weekly manual measurements. Digital monitoring is not always accurate. The City also plans to measure usage as soon as water meters are installed in all residences. SSP/OCP: Reflected in OCP 23.4.4 – Develop “initiatives to measure flows and temperatures through the year.” Page 82 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative Objective 2: Reduce community water consumption by 15 percent 3.2.1 Reduce per capita water use through a combination of regulation, education, incentives and targets 9 Amend Water Rate Bylaw to establish an appropriate rate structure with higher flat fee for non-metered residences, and or seasonal pricing (Reg) Undertake water use education and awareness, such as the Province of BC’s Water Smart Home Assessment, the Australian Water Smart Challenge or CBT’s Water Smart Initiative (Educ) Research and determine baseline water consumption data for a typical residence and publish the results (Educ) Continue to provide incentives for low-flow fixtures (Incent) Provide low-flow fixtures as an incentive for homeowners that participate in water conservation programs (Incent) Establish a community nursery of free xeriscape plants that can be utilized to replace lawns funded through the water treatment cost savings (Incent) Publish water consumption on a meter by meter basis (Educ) Promote the use of water efficient appliances and hardware and consider providing incentives for their purchase (Incent) Undertake a Water-Smart Garden program in which resident are encouraged to xeriscape, use low-loss irrigation and information is provided on appropriate plants (Educ) Ban lawn watering (Reg) Incorporate more water efficient standards into the City building design standards/code (Reg) Require low-flow plumbing in all new buildings (Reg) Public Comments: Focus on tools and education – no buy in, no compliance (x2). Requiring low flow plumbing in new buildings is overkill – encourage – don’t insist. Set a high price flat rate structure in 2011 (x2). Report average use. No meter by meter reporting but recognize low use households. Reducing water use particularly in the summer relieves stress on ecosystems and infrastructure. Need to leave water in the stream below our water intakes. Provide a water allowance for gardens. Don’t ban lawn watering – green is a valuable amenity that we do have. Review Comments: The City is already providing incentives for low flush toilets and low flow plumbing is required in new buildings. The City will be able to publish average use rates. Renovations could be linked to proposed Revitalization Program Bylaw (residents can apply for their taxes to remain the same for 5 years after $10,000 in renovations). SSP/OCP: These types of water conservation approaches are encouraged in SSP #121 and OCP 23.4.3 and 23.4.2. Page 83 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative 3.2.2 Reduce the City’s corporate water use in City Hall, on City trees and hanging baskets and in City Parks 1 Xeriscape local parks and the City streetscape (Examp/Land Man) Use harvested storm-water to water City parks and playing fields (Land Man) Public Comment: The City needs to lead by example. Review Comments: The City does not do a lot of maintenance on City parks now and this would increase the maintenance requirements. There could be potential health concerns associated with using storm-water to irrigate. Estimate drought creek flows incorporating future climate change scenarios (Plan) Establish trigger points for water restrictions based on stream flow, snow pack monitoring and/or reservoir levels (Plan) Establish procedures for equitable allocation of water in a drought situation (Plan) Public Comments: This is one of the most important objectives to ensure community resilience and safety. It is linked most strongly to climate change imperatives but maybe could be addressed in 3.4.1. Scenarios should be addressed and implemented in crafting education and prevention plans. Objective 3: Prepare for droughts 3.3.1 Prepare a Rossland-specific Drought Plan that addresses community water use and reservoir management, and future expected precipitation levels 4 Objective 4: Engage in long-term strategic management and enhancement of our current water supply 3.4.1 Create a watershed and/or a water management plan 5 Determine the limits of current water supply for future population growth including tipping points whereby reservoir capacity would have to be increased Develop a water budget for Rossland’s watershed Ensure the water resource implications of new developments are assessed and consider a policy of water neutrality Prepare for the potential requirement for greater maintenance of downstream flows in Rossland’s water supply creeks Identify the demand or summer drought point at which an additional reservoir or additional height on Ophir reservoir will be required (Infra) Require regular review of the watershed management plan Public Comments: Update the 2003 Dobson Report and get it adopted and implemented but take climate change into account in the update (x2). Create a water resource management plan to guide the City in the development of water resource resilience. Without a plan, nothing will happen. The plan should precede all other water measures. There is little or no creek biota sufficiently numerous or unique to warrant the maintenance of downstream flows. Review Comments: The POLIS program might be more useful than watershed management plan – it is a process of backcasting whereby you identify where you want to be in 20 years. The City may not ever be required by the province to maintain downstream flows. SSP/OCP: Watershed management and Page 84 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative water management plans are suggested in SSP #11, #120 and OCP 26.2.10. Maintaining downstream flows is suggested in SSP #127 and OCP 14.3.4. 3.4.2 3.4.3 3.4.4 Determine the validity of applying to Ministry of Agriculture and Lands for Watershed Reserve status for Rossland’s domestic supply (Res) Develop a plan for alternate drinking water if there is a fire in Rossland’s watershed (Plan) Adjust the water infrastructure maintenance program to reflect climate change and maintain a secure water supply (Infra) 1 Public Comment: Mining or logging in our watersheds could easily undo any or all other supply and conservation measures. Consider the implications of more sedimentation and turbid flows on infrastructure maintenance (Infra) Consider the implications of more freeze thaw cycles (Infra) Mulch the reservoirs with balls to reduce evaporation (Infra) Review Comment: Water quality issues associated with a fire could likely be dealt with through a boil water advisory. Review Comments: The spring freshet is already turbid. Topping is turned off in the spring due to turbidity. The City has the capacity to turn off one or more creeks if there was a landslide. The implication of more freeze thaw cycles would be that burst pipes would have to be replaced more frequently – leaks are already fixed as they are identified in the spring. Objective 5: Evaluate the potential for other sources of water Page 85 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative 3.5.1 3.5.2 Encourage residents to utilize alternative water sources for nonpotable water use needs 5 Engage in corporate City use of alternative water sources 1 3.5.3 Identify, establish and protect wetlands to allow for natural recharge of aquifers (Land Man) 3.5.4 Undertake a cost-benefit analysis of other watersheds as back-up water systems or additional sources of supply (Res) Prepare a guide on rain water recycling/roof water harvesting (Educ) Devise greywater storage and reuse guidelines (if greywater use becomes legal) (Educ) Install rainwater cisterns on municipal buildings (Examp) Explore options to reuse water within the City where possible (Examp) Public Comments: Rainwater capture could offset garden watering. Greywater and rainwater reuse are good ideas. More education is required. There should be incentives for installing on-site cisterns, rainwater harvesting, or reward early adopters at least by profiling them and learning from their experiences. However these will only work in the summer. Review Comments: Typical rainwater barrels (250 litres) hold limited water. Rainwater cisterns at 10,000 litres make a larger difference in water use. SSP/OCP: Suggested in OCP 23.3.6 and 23.3.7. Public Comment: The City should lead by example. Public Comment: Wetlands require flat land – relevant in Rossland? Review Comment: Not a lot of locations for wetlands in Rossland. Emcon lands a possibility. Review Comment: The other watersheds would be very expensive to bring on line. Objective 6: Maintain a high level of water quality 3.6.1 Develop strategies to maintain water quality 1 Consider increasing water quality monitoring so that climate change related water quality impacts are identified early (Res) Develop strategies to address the potential for higher more turbid flows (Plan) Public Comments: Consider lobbying to change water legislation to place the onus on households to filter water to make it potable (x3). Review Comments: The City already monitors e coli on daily basis. Most bugs are killed by chlorine – if the treatment kills e coli then it Page 86 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative will kill the other bugs as well. Rossland already has turbid flows and does turbidity tests on treated water on a daily basis. IV: Energy Key Adaptation Goals: Rossland’s vulnerability to the impacts of rising energy prices is minimized Rossland’s vulnerability to temporary and long-term energy supply interruptions is minimized Rossland has a diversified energy supply through local renewable energy generation Page 87 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative Potential Energy Objectives and Actions: Action Votes Potential Strategies Considerations Objective 1: Decrease Community Energy Consumption by 25 percent 4.1.1 Hire or designate a City Energy Manager 4.1.2 Develop a Community and Corporate Energy Plan (Plan) Public Comments: Hire a second building inspector. Don’t hire an energy manager unless there is money to support this position/perhaps an initial contract position. Review Comments: A City the size of Rossland cannot realistically afford to hire an energy manager – rather an energy ‘champion’ from within staff should be designated to promote energy as a consideration in all aspects of the City’s business. Public Comments: Need to have overall plan to have chance of success (x4). If done properly, could engage, educate and galvanize community to action. This will set targets and ensure long-term commitment – but how many more plans do we need. The plan will likely incorporate some of the other actions below (x2). Encourage community wide time of use and zero net metering, perhaps negotiated municipally with the mutual goal with Fortis to achieve power resiliency. SSP/OCP: An Energy Plan is suggested in SSP #103 and OCP 14.4.2. The OCP also contains a non-binding commitment for Rossland to reduce its community emissions by 33% by 2020. 9 Residential and Commercial Buildings 4.1.3 Develop and implement a City energy code/building energy conservation standards for new building and Adopt LEED and carbon neutral standards for all new developments (Reg) Promote better building insulation, ventilation and Public Comments: It would be better to encourage increased building density in City Centre. Making the building codes to energy Page 88 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative renovations 4.1.4 Encourage improved energy efficiency in existing residences 3 shade trees in new developments to reduce cooling requirements (Reg) Require Smart meters (legislated for 2012?) to take advantage of dual rate systems (Reg) Implement a Home Energy Efficiency Strategy (Educ) Require Smart meters (legislated for 2012?) to take advantage of dual rate systems (Reg) Begin a “Switch it Off” campaign (Educ/Incent) Encourage residents to purchase and install energy efficient appliances or participate in the EcoRetrofit program (Educ) Hold workshops, such as the burn smart workshop, that inform residents regarding energy efficient alternatives and government grant opportunities (Educ) Publish the results of the Community Energy Survey (Educ) standards will be much more effective in the long run for energy conservation than builders voluntarily building to energy efficient standards. Encourage building houses that are “big enough.” Conservation standards are easily overwhelmed by super-sized single-family dwellings. Shade trees need water – this is a trade off. Review Comments: Could be linked to proposed Revitalization Program Bylaw (residents can apply for their taxes to remain the same for 5 years after $10,000 in renovations). LEED standards might be too prescriptive. SSP/OCP: Green/LEED equivalent standards for new developments are suggested in SSP #106 and OCP 14.4.4. Public Comments: There is a big opportunity here. Good idea but lower priority. Too costly. SSP/OCP: SSP #108 and #110 encourage energy efficiency in homes Page 89 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative Resident and Commercial Transportation 4.1.5 Control sprawl and promote infill development (Reg) 3 4.1.6 Implement Transportation Demand Management (TDM) incentives and programs 4 Public Comments: Very important form energy and environmental perspective – will enable us to have green space. City Staff is doing a great job on this and should keep going on it. Review Comments: The City is already doing this and it is addressed in the OCP SSP/OCP: Promoted in SSP #2. 4.1.7 Publicize and enforce the vehicle idling bylaw (Educ) Provide assistance to or expand the rideshare program from Rossland to Trail (Incent) Increase multi-modal trail infrastructure (Land Man) Lobby for improvements in transit system (Coll) Work with partners to establish a shuttle between downtown Rossland and Red Mountain Resort (Coll) Public Comments: Educate regarding the difference between transportation needs and mere lifestyle wants. The biggest GHG issue for Rossland is transportation. Need to get the community going with rideshare shuttle to Trail etc. Review Comments: The City is already increasing multi-modal trail infrastructure with the BEAT study and trail development. Working with BC Transit to improve transit service has been tried in the past with little success. SSP/OCP: The SSP and OCP contain multiple suggestions to increase ride-sharing, shuttling and transportation options. See SSP #65, 64, 63, 60 and OCP 15.2.1 and 14.4.1. 1 City Buildings and Infrastructure Page 90 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative 4.1.8 Identify and implement energy conservation measures on a Corporate City level 6 4.1.9 Ensure all new City computers, copy equipment and other appliances are energy efficient (Examp) Investigate the potential for on-site renewable technology for street lighting/ or conversion of lights to lower wattage bulbs (Examp) Create a City green fleet program (Examp) Conduct audits of City facilities and work to improve City energy use (Examp) Build a green City building to serve as an example of sustainable climate change resilient building Public Comments: Lead by example (x3). Don’t expect residents to get on board if the municipality isn’t. Get some low watt street lights – and fewer of them (x3). For ultimate conservation and potential economic benefit, I propose the Dark Sky concept for Rossland and area. No longer in favour of LED due to massive RF discharge. Review Comments: The Subdivision and Development Servicing bylaw would have to be rewritten to facilitate this but Fortis does provide some funding for this. Audits are already being done as part of the City’s GHG reduction program to be Carbon Neutral by 2012 (but carbon neutrality can also be achieved through the purchase of offsets). SSP/OCP: The OCP supports a reduction or replacement of street lights in 14.4.5. The SSP recommends greening the city fleet in #66. Public Comments: A green retrofit might be better – new buildings have a big carbon footprint. Only build a new building of it is planned anyway (x2). Objective 2: Reduce the potential and prepare for temporary energy disruptions 4.2.1 Reduce the potential for energy supply disruptions 1 Require that utility lines be buried in new construction (Reg) Work with local energy providers to ensure that distribution infrastructure is resilient to climate impacts (Coll) Ensure any city owned energy generation systems are designed to be climate change resilient (Plan) Public Comments: Energy redundancy just makes sense. It is pretty hard to dig in utility lines on rock. Review Comment: There are no City energy generation systems at present. SSP/OCP: Locating utility lines underground is suggested in OCP 23.2.8. Page 91 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative 4.2.2 Prepare for temporary energy disruptions Ensure the city has some backup power generation capacity, potentially from renewable sources, especially for emergency centres (Infra) Ensure the City's water supply will continue to gravity-feed during interruptions in our electricity supply (i.e. electric equipment. or electric interlocks, can be manually operated or overridden) (Infra) Consider a back-up power source for the pump delivering water to residents at the Red Mountain base area (Infra) Encourage residents to have backup energy sources (Educ) Public Comments: Wood stoves must include burn smart low emission stoves. A few designated emergency centres are feasible. The gravity tank will handle the present population for days – back up power is unnecessary. Review Comments: A back up pump to Red Mountain is required by insurance and is budgeted for. Objective 3: Increase local energy generation by 15 percent by 2015 City or Commercial Renewable Energy Systems 4.3.1 Provide incentives for the development of renewable energy facilities 6 Public Comments: Put a turbine on the sewer interceptor. There are many KW available and wasted. Lots of people are thinking about renewables, they just need a push in the form of incentives. Review Comments: The ETF considered the installation of a turbine on the sewer but found it would be uneconomic. The line would have to be pressurized and closed (which it is not currently). Replacing the interceptor would cost approximately $9 million and would generate only enough electricity for 50 homes. Unless there is another reason to replace the interceptor and pressurize it, this is unlikely to be an economic option. SSP/OCP: Support for renewable energy Page 92 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative facilities is encouraged in OCP 26.2.17. 4.3.2 Undertake a renewable energy supply demonstration project/or establish a small energy utility Conduct a wind assessment specific to the City and install a wind generation facility if feasible (Buffalo Ridge location?) Investigate the potential for biomass energy production in Rossland Undertake a feasibility study to utilize renewable energy in a City building and identify appropriate funding to finance implementation Investigate the feasibility of micro-hydro on Murphy Creek or a micro hydro power installation at the biathlon loop Public Comments: Encourage municipal geothermal in mine shafts (x2). Like the idea of a demonstration project but not sure about wind – try geothermal in the mines, or solar. Generate power from waste collection system. SSP/OCP: Small municipal renewable energy utilities or pilots are recommended in SSP #102, #104, and #70. Residential Renewable Energy Systems 4.3.3 Ensure City bylaws allow for renewable energy systems 4.3.4 Promote renewable energy systems to residents 5 Incorporate provisions for passive solar, micro hydro, geothermal and micro wind into building codes and bylaws Set targets for solar hot water heating in residences (i.e. 20%) (Targ) Get accurate ROI numbers for renewable energy sources and provide to residents (Educ) Provide incentives for the installation of renewable energy resources or publish lists of agencies that do so (Incent) Provide renewable energy guides and lists of vendors (Educ) 4.3.5 Require all new developments to include 15% on site renewable energy generation (Reg) Public Comments: Work with residents on passive solar designs – develop a plan book? Knowledge is not something that everyone seeks out. Public Comments: This could be difficult in this economic climate and might discourage development – would need big incentives to work. Page 93 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report Objective 4: Promote provincial energy security 4.4.1 4.4.2 Lobby for the provincial government to keep energy produced in BC in BC (Coll) Lobby BC Hydro to undertake local hydro projects on the Columbia at Murphy and Boundary creeks (Coll) 1 Public Comments: Lobby for true cost pricing of fossil fuels instead. Too late for hydroelectricity. Public Comments: Not if it is done like the IPPs so far – must be almost zero footprint and or very very small (x4). There are far better ways to get power. Encourage – don’t demand. Page 94 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative V: Food Key Adaptation Goals: Rossland is a food secure community and its vulnerability to potential declines in global food production are minimized Local farmers and residential growers are supported Agricultural lands are identified and protected Agriculture and value added products are supported and promoted as a local economic development strategy Potential Food Objectives and Actions: Action Votes Potential Strategies Considerations 9 Create a local food security baseline Set a target for local food production (Targ) Encourage households to have emergency food supplies (Educ) Establish a food security education campaign that features the community garden, highlights the relationship between food and greenhouse gases and urban agriculture (Educ) Hold events such as an Iron Chef Local food Challenge to raise awareness of local food (Educ) Public Comments: Include food security and local good growing (Including home gardens instead of lawns) as a goal in the OCP and define food security to empower the City to take action on local food security (x2). All other actions flow from the recognition of food security as a high level policy (x2). Create a local food security baseline – need a starting point. This is a good strategy for the municipality – it could deal with the use of City lands for agriculture (x2) and call for all of objective 3. Encourage backyard gardening (Educ) Provide assistance in starting a backyard garden (knowledge, soil resources etc.) Promote awareness of food preservation and storage techniques (Educ) Plant native fruit trees on publicly owned lands (Land Man) Public Comment: This is important for selfreliance and preparing for potential droughts and flooding in other areas. Mentor/teach food production and processing. Rossland REAL food has models for this. Gardens need water – provide an allowance without extra cost in metered systems (x2). Review Comment: Rossland REAL Food is already playing an important role in doing this Objective 1: Promote local food security 5.1.1 Develop a food security strategy and/or a local food charter 5.1.2 Promote increased local food production and processing 12 Page 95 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative and could be supported. SSP/OCP: The OCP encourages urban agriculture in 26.2.9 and the SSP recommends retaining the orchards at the Chinese Gardens in #31. Objective 2: Support local farmers and residential growers 5.2.1 Support and engage in knowledge development for local growers 6 Research and develop guides on crops that will be productive with a warmer climate and changing soil composition (Res) Research and develop guides on agricultural/gardening management tools/systems that help address climate change and climate variability (i.e. crop diversification, succession planting, row covers, greenhouses) Establish a citizen-based monitoring program to monitor garden and crop behavior and provide a baseline for further research Research and develop a guide regarding the implications of climate change on the distribution and abundance of pests, invasive plants and diseases Establish the community garden as a demonstration site for sustainable gardening practices such as water conservation and drought tolerant gardening Educate residents regarding composting for the cold 6 months of the year Educate residents regarding what to do about wildlife problems. Public Comments: Use local knowledge regarding food production and crop behaviour. Make it easier for farmers to grow. Knowledge of weather and weather trends is important – monitor this. Rossland REAL food is close to doing a lot of these things now – Additional funding would assist to speed up the process. Page 96 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative 5.2.2 Ensure local growers have sufficient land access 16 5.2.3 5.2.4 Encourage pollinators through City plantings and establish bee homes on City property (Land) Establish a community composting system (Incent) Purchase or set aside community/City land (potentially ALR land) for additional community gardens a demonstration farm to be run by a Society Promote land sharing for gardening and crops as well as the use of City owned land Make the establishment of community garden plots part of a bonus system for developers seeking to increase density Encourage the donation of private lands for community gardens Assist in the construction of additional community gardens on City land Fund and build a greenhouse at the community garden Public Comments: Facilitate this through longterm covenants (bigger pieces) and policy/charter (alleyways, boulevards etc.). Community gardens are the way to go. Without access to land for gardening it is hard to grow anything. Review Comment: The City has already supported the establishment of community gardens with significant assistance by Rossland REAL food, a volunteer group. Additional gardens could be established. Public Comments: This will be easy to do – Rossland REAL Food is preparing a proposal for a pilot project right now. 10 Public Comments: Composting is highly important to encourage healthy gardens sustainably. For smaller gardens, poor soil can be improved and become very productive with added organic matter and pH balancing. Establish a clue box program for garden debris, especially weeds and divert food wastes to composting at RDKB. Shred and compost yard wastes in Rossland (need shredder) – Consider neighbourhood sites i.e. numerous dispersed sites. Region-wide heavy metals (naturally occurring) are so high that the composting program tried by the RDKB and RDCK didn’t meet provincial health standards. Review Comments: RDKB is looking into establishing a composting program. SSP/OCP: The SSP recommends a Page 97 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative 5.2.5 Establish and implement a plan to minimize noxious weeds (Plan) 5.2.6 Develop municipal guidelines for goats and chickens (Plan) 3 City of Rossland – Final Report community composting program in #124. Public Comments: Noxious weeds are one of the greatest threats to biodiversity and huge threats to agriculture too, even in the home garden. Need an incentive program – promote free weed pickup. Noxious weeds in garbage bags will be picked up on garbage day if the collectors know they are noxious weeds. SSP/OCP: A noxious weed plan is recommended in SSP #140. Public Comments: This is a new action recommended at the public session. Objective 3: Identify and protect agricultural land and topsoil 5.3.1 Make an inventory of local farms, agricultural soils agricultural land and residential growers (Res) 3 Public Comments: Consider establishing a local research facility or network of growers who all feed into a common database. Also inventory interest, knowledge and situational limitations – how many people don’t/aren’t but really want to (i.e. limitations). The ALR is not a good enough filter. We have to look at the ground ourselves. SSP/OCP: Identifying agricultural lands and potential are suggested in SSP #28 and OCP 26.2.7. Page 98 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative 5.3.2 Protect agricultural land and topsoil through incentives, education planning and regulation 11 Identify sites suitable for additional community gardens and incorporate them into zoning bylaws (Reg) Discourage or prohibit the development of open spaces and other areas identified as having potential to be utilized as agricultural land (Reg) Establish topsoil maintenance objectives, including control of sediment and erosion in development permits, the subdivision bylaw or a soil permit bylaw with penalties for non compliance (Reg) Research and promote practices such as permaculture, low-loss irrigation and appropriate fertilizing practices to improve and maintain soil fertility (Educ) Investigate co-ops and growing in hydro rights of way. Public Comments: It is very important to ensure that arable land is preserved for food production whether for personal or commercial use. Prohibiting development and refusing to upzone is key – without land farming can’t happen. Please save Happy Valley for farming. SSP/OCP: The SSP #29 recommends setting aside Happy Valley and other suitable areas as an agricultural land bank. Objective 4: Support agriculture and value-added products as an economic development strategy 5.4.1 Develop a micro incubator business program for local agriculture and valueadded products 2 Research micro incubator programs in other areas (Res) Seek funding for a micro incubator program for local and value-added agriculture (Res) Establish a community supported agriculture (CSA) program (Incent) Public Comments: Community supported agriculture (CSA) could help get bulk membranes for green houses. Allow free enterprise to develop local agriculture. Page 99 City of Rossland – Final Report Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative 5.4.2 Help establish and promote the farmers market and a permanent downtown food coop 2 5.4.3 Work with local growers to develop a local food marketing strategy (Coll) 8 5.4.4 Support the development of local food processing facilities (Coll) 2 Help local growers establish a permanent downtown food coop (Coll/Infra) Promote the downtown food coop and/or farmers’ market (website promotion, buy local campaign, development of pamphlets and cards) (Educ) Coordinate City events with farmers’ market days Have City employees assist with set-up or teardown of the farmer’s market Public Comments: Think regional – watch out that a farmer’s market doesn’t actually work against local commercial growers. A hobby grower with a one time windfall can undercut what is actually a fair price. This is being done by Rossland REAL food with the help of the City. Create a guide of local growers, what they grow and how to reach them to purchase produce (Educ) Undertake a “buy local” and/or “seasonal eating” campaign with pamphlets and other promotion (Educ) Develop a logo to brand locally produced products (Educ) Research new market strategies to support local agriculture and value-added products (Res) Public Comments: This is being done by Rossland REAL food with the help of the City. Develop a local food marketing strategy. Producers need support. The easier it is for people to identify what they can buy locally, the more they will do so. SSP/OCP: The OCP promotes the support of locally grown products in 26.2.8 and SSP #44 suggests that restaurants and grocery stores should be encouraged to purchase local products. Public Comments: We need local (regional) meat processing, freezing, canning and jam (x2). Public Comments: Almost all of these actions are necessary and doable – These should all be adopted (x2). All that is needed to advance many of these and RRF projects is some modest financial support or seed money to act as a catalyst. Page 100 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report V: Conclusions and Next Steps Climate change is a critical challenge facing the City of Rossland and its impacts will likely start to become more evident as we move towards 2050. But climate change can also be viewed as a potential opportunity “Win-win” climate change adaptations are “actions that to undertake some key adaptation actions that the City has provide adaptation benefits while already identified in the SSP and OCP as being desirable for meeting other social, Rossland for reasons other than climate change adaptation, environmental or economic such as promoting sustainability, reducing City costs and objectives, including climate encouraging economic development. The fact that these change mitigation.” ~ Pew Center actions are also important from a climate change adaptation on Global Climate Change perspective provides further impetus for their implementation. After a one-year process, the Steering Committee has identified nineteen priority adaptation actions with respect to infrastructure, water, energy and food to assist Rossland in adapting to climate change. A further fifteen recommended but lower priority adaptation actions were also identified for potential implementation at a later date. The tasks of the Steering Committee and the Coordinator have largely ended and the priority actions are presented to the City and to the Sustainability Commission for their consideration and implementation. Each priority action has been flagged with regard to whether the City or Sustainability Commission might best play a lead role in its implementation. A few of the priority actions, such as promoting infill, developing better data regarding water demand, and encouraging more on-site water retention, are already being undertaken by the City to some degree. Including those actions in the recommendations here is intended to provide further support to the actions that the City is already taking and ensure that they continue. Other priority actions, such as developing an Energy Plan or considering climate change in the City Infrastructure Plan, are additional to the work that the City is already doing and will require some budget planning by both the City and the Sustainability Commission if they are to be implemented. When selecting priority actions, consideration was given to their affordability. In most cases, the priority actions can be accomplished at limited cost over time if they are incorporated into regular budget planning and implemented as part of the sustainability initiatives that the City would likely consider as part of the SSP implementation. Some of the actions ultimately could reduce the City’s operating and infrastructure upgrade costs. Other actions may require grant funding if they are to be implemented. If the City and Sustainability Commission are prepared to Page 101 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report offer matching funding and dedicate some Sustainability Commission funds for grant application preparation, the “The only goal of producing this City may be able to capitalize on available grants as it has plan is to begin implementing it.” successfully done for many other sustainability initiatives. ~ Beryl Magilavy, Director, Planning for Phase 3 of CBT’s Communities Adapting to Department of the Environment Climate Change Initiative is underway and assisting the about San Francisco’s Phase 1 and 2 communities with implementation either Sustainability planning process through support or funding is under consideration. This may be a good opportunity for the City to explore in seeking implementation support. “Even with mitigation efforts, climate change will continue to unfold for decades due to the long atmospheric lifetime of past greenhouse-gas emissions and the gradual release of excess heat that has built up in the oceans. Climate change adaptation is thus a necessity for our nation and the world.” ~ Scientific American, US Needs a Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change, September 30, 2010 Ultimately a plan is only as good as its implementation, and it is the hope of the Steering Committee that the priority actions identified in this report form the basis for the City’s ongoing response to climate change. Climate change is already occurring. The precise manner in which it will manifest in Rossland is not completely known. This report provides some best guesses based on the science available at the time of writing. Even if mitigation strategies prove successful, some level of climate change is inevitable. Local governments will likely be forced to be at the forefront of climate change adaptation and the choices they make today might affect their capacity to adapt in the future. Communities that anticipate and prepare for climate change will position themselves to be the resilient sustainable communities of the future. “Many decisions that will affect how communities fare in a changing climate will be made locally.” ~ Rosina Bierbaum, Dean of University of Michigan's School of Natural Resources and Environment. Page 102 Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative City of Rossland – Final Report References Australian Government, Department of Environment and Water Resources, Australian Greenhouse Office (2007). Climate Change Adaptation Actions for Local Government, Australian Greenhouse Office: Canberra, ACT. Bals, Christopher, Sven Harmeling and Michael Windfuhr. 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