1 Title page
Mediterranean ocean Forecasting System: Toward
Environmental Predictions
(MFSTEP)
Version 1.1
Sunday, June 03, 2001
1
2 Content List
1
TITLE PAGE ................................................................................................................................ 1
2
CONTENT LIST ........................................................................................................................... 2
3
OBJECTIVES ............................................................................................................................... 3
4
CONTRIBUTION TO PROGRAMME/KEY ACTION OBJECTIVES ................................. 4
5
INNOVATION .............................................................................................................................. 4
6
PROJECT WORKPLAN ............................................................................................................. 5
6.A INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................... 5
6.B PROJECT PLANNING AND TIME TABLE ........................................................................................ 5
6.C GRAPHICAL PRESENTATION OF THE PROJECT’S COMPONENTS ..................................................... 6
6.D DETAILED PROJECT DESCRIPTION ................................................................................................ 6
6.d.1
Workpackage list .............................................................................................................. 6
6.d.2
Deliverables List ............................................................................................................... 6
6.d.3
Short description of Workpackages .................................................................................. 7
6.d.3.0 WP0- Project Management......................................................................................................... 7
6.d.3.1 WP1- The XBT-VOS system upgrade and extension ................................................................. 8
6.d.3.2 WP2- The M3A buoy system upgrade and extension............................................................... 10
6.d.3.3 WP3- The NRT satellite data extension ................................................................................... 13
6.d.3.4 WP4- The subsurface drifting buoy system: MedARGO ......................................................... 15
6.d.3.5 WP5- New technology for basin wide monitoring: GLIDERS................................................. 17
6.d.3.6 WP6- The interconnection of coastal and basin wide data collection networks- Global Coastal
Mediterranean Network............................................................................................................................ 18
6.d.3.7 WP7- Development of multivariate estimation tools for the basin scale and for coastal regions
21
6.d.3.8 WP8- Forecasting at the basin scale ......................................................................................... 24
6.d.3.9 WP9-The forecasting at regional/shelf scale ............................................................................ 26
6.d.3.10
WP10- The atmospheric forcing and interaction studies ..................................................... 29
6.d.3.11
WP11-Nesting ecosystem models from basin to shelf scale ............................................... 31
6.d.3.12
WP12-The development of data assimilation for biochemical observations ....................... 33
6.d.3.13
WP13-The OSSE studies for hydrodynamics and ecosystem predictions ........................... 35
6.d.3.14
WP14- The data management system for NRT observations and model data ..................... 37
6.d.3.15
WP15- Derived applications ............................................................................................... 40
6.d.3.16
WP16- Economic impact studies ........................................................................................ 42
2
3 Objectives
(all to be rewritten)
The overall objectives of the second phase are:
1. Improve and expand the Near Real Time large scale monitoring system including
the addition of biochemical measurements and ARGO components.
2. Nest, wherever possible, coastal monitoring networks with the NRT basin scale
monitoring system
3. Demonstrate the feasibility of Near Real Time ten days forecasts in different shelf
areas
4. Implement the three dimensional ecosystem models coupled to the forecasting
system for future predictions of coastal primary producers biomass variability;
5. Implement high resolution atmospheric forcing and develop a coupled oceanatmosphere Mediterranean model for extended range forecasts;
6. Consolidate the dissemination of forecasts to a wide user community and develop
applications.
The second phase will contain three fundamental periods:
1. a Targeted Operational Period (TOP) of six months where regional and shelf
forecasts will be carried out pre-operationally, e.g., forecasts will be released in
NRT at central and local Web sites;
2. a pre-TOP phase of 1,5 years for preparation of the observing system, the
implementation of data exchange procedures and the further development of data
assimilation and model implementation issues;
3. a post-TOP phase of 1 year where the forecasting system will be assessed and the
final ecosystem model calibration and validation will be carried out.
In synthesis, the basic components of MFSTEP are:
A. The Observing system set up and networking
a. basin scale
1. VOS
2. Satellite data sets
3. M3A
4. ARGO drifters
5. GLIDERS
b. coastal scale
1. CTD stations
2. ADCP profiles
3. Coastal buoys, sea level
4. Chlorophyll and nutrients profiles
B. The modeling system and data assimilation components:
a. Further develop nested models for hydrodynamics from basin (10 km) to
shelf ( 2 km) scale
b. ecosystem model implementation at basin scale
c. nested ecosystem models in regional and shelf areas
3
d. multivariate Optimal Interpolation for basin scale physical data sets and
development of OI for ecosystem data assimilation
e. the tangent linear initialization of regional/shelf models
f. the asynchronous coupling with atmospheric forecast parameters (both
deterministic and ensemble) to force the ocean predictions at different
resolution (from 0.5 X 0.5 to 10 km resolution) and the development of
appropriate air-sea interaction physics
g. development of coupled regional atmosphere-ocean model and initial
study of the hydrological cycle of the basin
C. The forecasting activities
a. Continue the NRT 10 days basin scale forecasts with improved model
b. Carry out NRT 10 days forecasts in regional and shelf areas
D. The NRT data management system
a. The design of an efficient NRT data (observations and model)
transmission system with concrete examples of application to the Project
forecasting activities
b. The assessment of the networking efficiency and reliability
E. The dissemination and exploitation of results
a. Analysis of potential user communities
b. The development of derived applications
c. The development of forecast user interfaces and forecast ad-hoc products
for different user communities
d. The economic study of potential Mediterranean forecasts impact on
industrial and tourist activities of the area
4 Contribution to programme/key action objectives
5 Innovation
4
6 Project Workplan
6.a
Introduction
6.b
Project planning and Time Table
WP1
Months
0
Task 1.1 WP coordination
1.1.1work monitoring
1.1.2 Standards hardsoftware
1.1.3 Monitoring design
1.1.4 Support and
motivation
Task 1.2
1.2.1 Design+realization/
assessment of multiple
launcher
1.2.2 Design
+realization/assessment
of XBF
1.2.3 SAVE Design,
realization and
assessment
1.2.4 Full resolution data
transmission system
1.2.5 XBT software
quality control
1.2.6 F software quality
control
Task 1.3
1.3.1 XBT data
collection
1.3.2 Real Time data
transmission
1.3.3 XBT-F data
collection
1.3.4 Meteorological
data collection
Task 1.4
1.7.1 Quality control
1.7.2 Near real time
dissemination
1.7.3 Data flow
monitoring
1.8.1 Analysis of thermal
data
1.8.3 Analysis of
Fluorimeter data
3
6
Decision on
requirements
9
12
1st system evaluation
design
15
18
21
24
2nd system evaluation
Design assessment
Single or/and multiple
launcher
Please add one for each Workpackage
5
27
36
6.c
Graphical presentation of the project’s components
My job
6.d
Detailed project description
6.d.1 Workpackage list
(My note: format from guide, pag 17)
6.d.2
Deliverables List
(Workpackage by workpackage)
Please use the same nomenclature of deliverables of the Tasks and SubTasks of
section 6.d.3.
Deliverable
No
Deliverable title
Delivery
1
date
2
Nature
3
Disseminati
on
level
4
WP1 – D1
WP1 – Dn
Deliverable numbers in order of delivery dates: D1 – Dn
Month in which the deliverables will be available. Month 0 marking the start of the project, and all
delivery dates being relative to this start date.
3
Please indicate the nature of the deliverable using one of the following codes:
Re = Report; Da = Data set; Eq = Equipment; Pr = Prototype; Si = Simulation;
Th = Theory; De = Demonstrator; Me = Methodology; O = other (describe in annnex)
4
Please indicate the dissemination level using one of the following codes:
PU = Public
RE = Restricted to a group specified by the consortium (including the Commission Services).
CO = Confidential, only for members of the consortium (including the Commission
(Services).
1
2
6
6.d.3 Short description of Workpackages
6.d.3.0
WP0- Project Management
(still at the very beginning, to be decided with Edwards)
Overview
This project co-ordinates the scientific and technological aspects of shelf marine
forecasting at the level of the Mediterranean Sea and several of its coastal areas. It has
a great number of partners and activities so that a distributed co-ordination and
management system has to be applied. Like several other EU projects it will have a
co-ordinator assisted by a horizontal structure of scientific and operational focus
teams in order to accomplish the work. The management will also co-ordinate a
capillary dissemination and exploitation of project results since many ready to be
commercialised products will be initiated by it.
General Objectives of Workpackage
Task 0100 Project co-ordination
Subtask 0110 Project Steering Committee
Subtask 0120 Project workpackage leaders
Subtask 0130 External advisory groups
Subtask 0140 PROGECTA: Project management tool
Task 0200 MFSTEP data product dissemination policy
Task 0300 Exploitation program
Task 0400 Interface of project with major international programs
Subtask 0410 VOS in SOOP
Subtask 0420 M3A in DBCB
Subtask 0430 Development of a Mediterranean GMES strategy
Task 0500 Formulation of a Project Consortium
7
6.d.3.1
WP1- The XBT-VOS system upgrade and extension
Overview
(insert Figure of existing VOS system)
General Objectives of Workpackage
Implement the basic elements of an operational, multiparametric, autonomous, costeffective VOS5 monitoring network in the Mediterranean Sea.
The work package will definitively create conditions for the passage from research to
operational services, in support to marine users stakeholders and sustainable marine
activities.
Methods
The key elements of this workpackage are technological and scientific:
Technological elements
1.implement technologies and methodologies for automated data collection (including
a multiple XBT launcher) and transmission, in order to transmit full resolution
profiles
2.develop new XBTF2 providing profiles of fluorimetry
3.develop an automatic profiler (Vertical Moving Profiler – VMP) to be mounted on
ships of opportunity
4.develop near-real-time quality control procedures for full resolution profiles
Scientific elements
5. implement a monitoring system based essentially on ‘line sampling’, mainly from
North to South boundaries,
6.sample the Mediterranean resolving spatially mesoscale structures (10-12 nautical
miles) every 15 days,
7. provide data for the forecast of the physical state of the Mediterranean at short and
medium term, participating to analysis of model results,
8.implement the collection of meteorological data in the Mediterranean area along
VOS,
9. provide elements of comparison with different monitoring systems (e.g. altimeter,
SST, meteo, profilers, etc.) with the aim to implement methodologies for an integrated
use of multi-platform data
10. provide analysis on inter-annual changes in thermal characteristics of the
Mediterranean
Tasks
Task 1.1 WP Management
Subtask 1.1.1 Coordination of the Monitoring Work.
Subtask 1.1.2 Definition of standards for hardware and software.
Subtask 1.1.3 Monitoring system design.
1
2
Volunteer Observing Ship
Expendable BaThythermograph and Fluorimetre
8
Subtask 1.1.4 Support and motivation.
Task 1.2 VOS sensors developments
Subtask 1.2.1 Design and realisation of a multiple launcher.
Subtask 1.2.2 Design and realisation of XBTF.
Subtask 1.2.3 Design and realisation of the Sliding Advanced Vehicle (SAVE )
Subtask 1.2.4 Assessment of the new sensors.
Task 1.3 Data collection and transmission
Subtask 1.3.1 Full resolution data transmission system implementation
Subtask 1.3.2 XBT quality control software
Subtask 1.3.3 Fluoremetre quality control software
Subtask 1.3.4 Consolidation and Expansion of VOS tracks collection
Subtask 1.3.5 Meteorological data collection.
Subtask 1.3.6 Multiple launcher data collection
Subtask 1.3.7 XBTF data collection.
Subtask 1.3.8 SAVE data collection.
Proposed Track Network
Track
name
Track
length
(nm)
n. XBT/
travel
Start
port
End
port
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
870
500
500
450
540
450
390
200
110
960
73
42
42
38
45
38
33
17
9
96
Sete
Genova
Ploce
Bari
Haifa
Tunis
Palerm
o
Malta
Dubrov
nik
Messin
a
Palerm Barcelo
o
na
Gibralta Arzew
r
Pyreus Alexand Cyprus
ria
Hyraklio Rodhes P.Said
nThessal
o.
Task 1.4 Data management, analysis, dissemination and assessment
Subtask 1.4.1 Web page
Subtask 1.4.2 Quality control of real time data (full resolution).
Subtask 1.4.3 Dissemination of real time data at standard depths.
Subtask 1.4.4 Delayed mode data quality control.
Subtask 1.4.5 Data flow monitoring.
Subtask 1.4.6 Analysis of XBT thermal data.
Subtask 1.4.7 Overall assessment of the monitoring system.
Subtask 1.4.8 Data and information dissemination.
(Giuseppe, please add and modify the information as discussed)
9
6.d.3.2
WP2- The M3A buoy system upgrade and extension
Overview
During the first phase of the Mediterranean Forecasting System a prototype system
for real time measurements of physical and biochemical measurements at fixed
locations was designed and developed. This prototype system, the Mediterranean
Moored Multi-sensor Array (M3A) is in preoperational use since January 2000
providing multiparametric data from the Cretan Sea (Eastern Mediterranean).
The M3A main characteristics are the following:
 Mooring in deep ocean (over 1000m )
 Measuring capability of a) physical parameters down to 500m b) biochemical
parameters down to 100m and c) air-sea interaction parameters at surface
 Raw data transmission to the corresponding data centre in “real time” and preprocessed data transmission to MFS partners “near real time” (NRT).
The role of the system is to provide multiparametric data sets that will be used for
calibration and validation of the hydrodynamic and ecosystem models developed for
the different sub-regions of the Mediterranean and for assimilation into the
operational forecasting system of the Mediterranean Sea.
The development of the prototype M3A was based on the experience of the TAO
array of the Equatorial Pacific (McPhaden et al. 1998) and the Bermuda Testbed
Mooring (BTM, Dickey et al. 1998), combining the operational capabilities of the
Atlas moorings with the multiparametric configuration of the BTM system. A Central
mooring line that hosts the surface buoy and sensors with large autonomy and
peripheral moorings that communicate with the central line trough underwater
acoustic link compose it. This modular design allows an easy handling of instruments
that have increased maintenance requirements (lines 2 and 3) and permits upgrade of
the system with new sensors on additional mooring lines.
General Objectives of Workpackage
The overall objective of the workpackage is to consolidate and expand the existing
Mediterranean Moored Multi-sensor Array. The two specific goals of WP2 in the
framework of the MFSTEP project will be:
 To improve the functionality of M3A and upgrade its capabilities
 To expand the network with 1 more buoy in the Eastern Mediterranean and 2
buoys in the Western Mediterranean Sea.
Methods
The 1st goal involves several tasks:
 to improve of underwater + satellite communications in order to succeed reliable
real-time data acquisition,
 to explore new anti-biofouling techniques in order to improve quality of data
 use new optical - chemical sensors in order to improve the observing capacity of
the system
 modify the surface buoy design
The 2nd goal involves the development of 3 new buoy systems, one in the central and
two in the western Mediterranean. These systems will follow the design and will use
10
the experience of the prototype M3A and they will be developed either though the
upgrade / modification of existing systems or through the construction of new ones.
The four stations together will be the backbone of the validation of the basin scale
forecasts (for currents) and they will serve as subsurface extrapolation data set for
surface satellite color data and for assimilation in ecosystem models.
(Kostas we need to strengthen this point, may be with Tasks and interconnection with
WP8 and WP12)
Kostas, I need a shorter ‘ the new M3A sites’ section that should go here and may be
an appendix with details. All it is written is fine but needs shortening.
Tasks
Task 2100: Telecommunication systems
Subtask 2110: Underwater Communications
Subtask 2120: Satellite communications
Subtask 2130: Networking
Subtask 2140: Surface Man-Machine Interface
Task 2200: Bio-optical measurements and fouling effects
Subtask 2210: Design of M3A upgrade with new bio-optical sensors
Subtask 2220: Anti-fouling Techniques
Task 2300: Development of the M3A Surface buoy
Subtask 2310: Design & Supplies of the materials
Subtask 2320: Constructions
Subtask 2330: Lab and Open Sea Tests
Task 2400: Upgrade of prototype M3A system in the Cretan Sea (E1-M3A)
Subtask 2410: Implementation of new communication systems
Subtask 2420: Integration of new instrumentation
Subtask 2430: Lab and Sea Tests
Subtask 2440: Operation and periodic maintenance
Subtask 2450: Data Quality Control and dissemination
(there are still some undescribed steps here)
Task 2500: Development of the E2-M3A in the Adriatic Sea
Subtask 2510: System design
Subtask 2520: Construction of system components and tests
Subtask 2530: Overall integration and tests
Subtask 2540: System deployment, measurements and data transmission
Subtask 2550: Maintenance and in situ measurements
(still missing information)
Task 2600: Development of the W1-M3A in the Catalan Sea
Subtask 2610: System design
Subtask 2620: Construction of system components
Subtask 2630: Lab and Sea Tests
Subtask 2640: Operation and periodic maintenance
Subtask 2650: Data Quality Control and dissemination
11
(very much to be developed in details, may be more subTasks, where is the
deployment Task?)
Task 2700: Development of the W2-M3A in the Ligurian Sea
Subtask 2710: Design of the Ligurian M3A system
Subtask 2720: Software and hardware integration of buoy system
Subtask 2730: Laboratory and sea tests
Subtask 2740: Deployment of the mooring
Subtask 2750: Maintenance of the Ligurian M3A system
Subtask 2760: In-situ validation of the measurements
Subtask 2770: Data quality control, analysis and dissemination
Task 2800: Data Management
Subtask 2810: Coordination of development efforts at 4 mooring sites
Subtask 2820: Harmonization of Quality Assurance procedures
Subtask 2830: M3A Web page and NRT-DCB
(connect with WP14 but without repeating, several Web pages should be created for
each site)
12
6.d.3.3
WP3- The NRT satellite data extension
Overview
Near Real Time (NRT) remote sensing data provide unique data sets for the setting up
of an operational Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS). As part of the MFS Pilot
Project (MFSPP), a near real time acquisition and processing system of altimetry and
SST (Sea Surface Temperature) remote sensing data for the Mediterranean sea was
successfully implemented and tested. High quality maps of sea level anomaly and sea
surface temperature were routinely produced and analysed. Data were assimilated in
the basin scale model to produce weekly forecasts of the state of the Mediterranean
sea. Altimeter and SST data have provided invaluable information on the basin scale
and mesoscale variability (Larnicol et al., 2001, Nardelli et al., 2001) and have
strongly constrained the MFSPP model through the data assimilation. In addition, a
delayed mode processing system for ocean colour data was implemented.
For MFSTEP, the work will mainly consist in the improvement of the NRT altimeter
and SST processing system (new satellites, improved algorithms and processing), the
extension of the system to satellite winds and the consolidation of the ocean colour
system. Note that contrary to MFSPP, ocean colour data will be assimilated in
biochemical models as part of MFSTEP. As this will be done in delayed mode, ocean
colour will not be processed, however, in NRT for MFSTEP. The large amount of
remote sensing and in-situ data available for the MFSPP and MFSTEP phases should
also allow us to perform joint analyses (intercomparison and combination) of all the
available data sets. This is needed to analyse the consistency of the different data sets
and to characterise their physical content. This information is crucial to improve the
remote sensing and in-situ data integration through data assimilation. These joint
analyses are also needed to derive useful merged products that will be used to validate
the model and the data assimilation system.
General Objectives of Workpackage
Thus, the specific objectives of this workpackage are to :





Improve the NRT altimeter system
Improve the NRT SST system
Consolidate the ocean colour system
Analyze the contribution of scatterometry to derive high resolution wind fields
Process the SST and altimeter data sets before (TOP-6 months), during the TOP
period and after the TOP period
 Perform joint analyses of the different data sets for the MFSPP and MFSTEP TOP
periods.
General Products of Workpackage
(please see if you can sumarise)
Methods
13
(do we need this in your workpackage?)
Tasks
Task 3100 : Altimetry
Subtask 3110 : Add new altimeters and quantify their accuracy and contribution
Subtask 3120 : Improvement in the processing and merging scheme
Subtask 3130 : Calculation of a mean dynamic topography of the Mediterranean sea
Subtask 3140 : NRT processing and analysis of altimeter data before (TOP – 6
months), during TOP and after the TOP. Reanalysis of past altimeter data.
Task 3200 : Sea surface temperature
Subtask 3210: Improvement of the cloud detection and of the operational algorithms
Subtask 3220 : Development of daily SST products for data assimilation
Subtask 3230 : Production of daily fields on the model grid before, during and after
the TOP. Reanalysis of past SST data from 1999 up to the end of MFSTEP.
Subtask 3240 : Test/Impact of MSG geostationary satellite
Task 3300 : Ocean colour
Subtask 3310: Development of an interpolation technique for ocean colour
Subtask 3320: Production of chlorophyll maps during TOP
Task 3400 : Scatterometry
Subtask 3410: Compilation of the different satellite data sets over the Mediterranean
sea.
Subtask 3420: Validation of the wavenumber content of ECMWF analysis wind fields
with respect to scatterometer data.
Subtask 3430: Production of the gridded wind fields for the TOP period.
Subtask 3440 : Definition/test of a methodology to combine the satellite wind fields
with the ECMWF analyses.
Task 3500 : Joint data analyses
Subtask 3510 : Comparison between altimetry, SST, ocean colour data
Subtask 3520 : Comparison between altimetry and XBT (VOS) and MedARGO data
Subtask 3530: Multivariate analysis of altimetry, SST and XBT/MedARGO (TOP
period)
Task 3600 : Data management
Subtask 3610 : Development of the ftp/www server
Subtask 3620 : Data distribution
(Pierre-Yves, your wp is almost complete, a part from my man/month with Milliff,
isn’t it? However, I need the deliverable Table)
14
6.d.3.4
WP4- The subsurface drifting buoy system:
MedARGO
Overview
Near-real time (NRT) observations in the water column, e.g., temperature and salinity
(T/S) profiles, are of fundamental importance for the operational Mediterranean
Forecasting System (MFS). As part of MFSTEP, near real time acquisition and
processing of T/S profiles provided by autonomous profilers deployed throughout the
Mediterranean will be implemented and tested. This will involve some hardware and
software development to adapt the currently available profiler technology to the
specifics of the Mediterranean environment. Along with the XBT data (WP1), the
NRT data provided by the profilers will be the backbone of the data assimilation and
forecast system developed in WP7. Additionally, intermediate (300-400 m depth)
mean currents will be estimated, from the profiler displacements at their neutral depth.
The profiler data will enhance the value of sea level measurements made by satellite
altimeters (see WP3).
The profilers will be programmed to perform the following repetitive cycle: descend
to a prescribed neutral depth (300-400 m), drift at that level for some time (3-5 days)
and then dive down to about 700 m before ascending to the surface while collecting
T/S data. During their short period at surface, the profilers will be located by, and the
data will be telemetered to, the satellite Argos system. Data processing, quality
control and archiving will be done at dedicated Data Centres. NRT distribution will be
done through internet and the data will be distributed on the World Weather Watch –
Global Telecommunication System (GTS).
Although different in details, due to the characteristics of the Mediterranean Sea, this
WP, referred to as MedARGO, is similar to the international ARGO program started
in 2000. ARGO consists of a global array of T/S profiling floats to describe the
evolving state of the upper world oceans and the patterns of ocean climate variability.
Thus, strong interconnection is envisaged between MedARGO and ARGO, in terms
of sharing data, sharing some tools for data processing and visualization, and in terms
of scientific evaluation and results.
General Objectives of Workpackage
The principal objective of this WP is the continuous and widespread sampling of the
thermal and haline structures in the Mediterranean upper water column (0-700 m)
using autonomous profilers. An infrastructure for data collection and telemetry, and
for NRT data management and dissemination, will be developed for MFS. A second
objective is the measurement of Lagrangian intermediate mean currents near the core
of the Levantine Intermediate Water (LIW) and the assessment of the utility of these
direct velocity measurements for MFS.
The specific goals of this WP are to:
15
 Study the characteristics of the sampling design to make efficient measurements
tailored to the general objective of MFS and specifically, forecasting at basin
scale;
 Develop profiler hardware and software specific to the Mediterranean Sea, and
compatible with the optimal sampling design selected;
 Establish an infrastructure for the deployment and eventual recoveries of the
profilers, in collaboration with WP1 for the deployments along VOS-XBT line;
 Develop methods and techniques to analyse and distribute the data in NRT;
 Assess the accuracy of the T/S data and current measurements and study their
utility for the forecast.
General Products of Workpackage
Pierre do you think you can write something or it is obsolete for this workpackage?
Methods
Pierre ARGO floats could be described here…
Tasks
Task 4100: Sampling Design
Subtask 4110: Algorithm implementation
Subtask 4120 : Intermediate currents
Subtask 4130: Temperature and salinity
(Pierre we should say here that at maximum there will be 20 floats in each sub-basin)
Task 4200 : Technical developments
Subtask 4210: Hardware
Subtask 4220: Software
Subtask 4230: Field tests of profilers in open sea
Subtask 4240: Assessment of field test results and hardware/software modifications
Task 4300 : Deployments and recoveries
Subtask 4310: Deployments along VOS-XBT lines
Subtask 4320: Non-VOS deployments and recoveries
Task 4400 : Data management
Subtask 4410: Development, set up and testing
Subtask 4420: NRT data processing
Subtask 4430: NRT visualization and distribution
Subtask 4440: Final processing and dissemination
Task 4500 : Data analyses
Subtask 4510: Comparison of near-surface T/S data with satellite SST
Subtask 4520 : Comparison of profiler temperature data with XBT data
Task 4600 : General assessment and future implementation
(Pierre we need to talk about the costs of PROVOR and APEX, you have not put
them explicitly and how many of them?)
16
6.d.3.5
WP5- New technology for basin wide monitoring:
GLIDERS
Overview
General Objectives of Workpackage
General Products of Workpackage
Methods
Tasks
17
6.d.3.6
WP6- The interconnection of coastal and basin wide
data collection networks- Global Coastal Mediterranean
Network
Overview
A significant investment has already been made in observing infrastructure for the
coastal ocean, at least in some Mediterranean regions. This means that more variables
are measured in coastal ecosystems for more purposes (e.g. weather and sea state
forecasts, compliance monitoring, and the management of living resources and water
quality) than in basin wide systems. Some measurements, such as sea level, have been
made for more than two centuries and there is presently a global distribution of tide
gauges that report sea level in Near Real Time (NRT). Clearly, the Mediterranean
Coastal Networks of the future must be built on the extensive infrastructure already in
place, a process that can only occur through extensive collaboration and coordination
among Mediterranean agencies and Nations. In this sense, the development of a
coastal ocean observing network will be more similar to meteorological networks than
to those for basin wide observations.
The main purpose of the Mediterranean coastal observing system (MECOS-MFS) will
be to detect and predict the causes and consequences of changes in coastal
ecosystems. Both detection and prediction depend on effective linkages between
measurements, data communication, and analyses. Using the Global Meteorological
Observing System as a model, this will require a managed end-to-end system with the
following elements:
 The observing subsystem (networks of platforms, sensors, sampling devices, and
measurement techniques) to measure the required variables at the required time
and space scales to detect and predict the targeted changes in coastal indicators
 The communications network and data management subsystem (telemetry,
protocols and standards for quality assurance and control, data dissemination and
exchange, archival, user access)
 The modeling and applications subsystem
Moreover, an operational observing system requires systematic (with sufficient
precision and accuracy on appropriate time and space scales) measurements with a
long term “vocation” (sustained into the foreseeable future). In this regard, it must
also be recognized that many of the observations required for a fully integrated
observing system are not operational and that much work is needed to determine those
products that are more useful.
General Objectives of Workpackage
The observational coastal component of MFS (MECOS-MFS) will evolve along two
tracks:
 The establishment of an initial Mediterranean network based on existing coastal
operational systems. Test cases will involve: MedGLOSS stations (http://
medgloss.ocean.org.il), POSEIDON stations (Aegean sea,
http://www.poseidon.ncmr.gr), XIOM (Catalan Coast, http://lim-
18
ciirc.upc.es/projects/xiom), REMRO, REDMAR, REMPOR (Med. Spanish Coast,
http://www.puertos.es/clima.html) and ADRICOSM
(http://www.ingv.it/adricosm).
 The development of suitable NRT transmission and quality control procedures
 The dissemination of the data to the coastal modeling community for validation
of forecasts with appropriate parameters
A compromise must be made in the choice of variables to be observed. At the initial
stage, the easiest variables to measure and predict are physical (e.g. sea level and
temperature) in contrast to biological and chemical variables that are needed to fulfill
the MFS objectives. The selection of our initial “core” variables will, thus, involve
compromises in terms of what is most straightforward to measure and model in the
short term and what will ultimately be the most useful. Based on the Strategic Design
Plan for the Coastal Component of the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), the
minimum number of variables needed to detect changes in indicators and that satisfy
the maximum number of user needs are: meteorological data, temperature and salinity
profiles, current profiles and chlorophyll and nutrient profiles. We will concentrate on
coastal stations that will monitor these variables.
(Augustin, recently there is a new document that invoque the need to Global Coastal
Networks! I will try to send it to you, please remind me)
General Products of Workpackage
Methods
Tasks
Task 6100: Definition of the initial components of the global Mediterranean
coastal observing system network
Subtask 6110: Definition of global coastal observing system components in the
Levantine Basin
Subtask 6120: Definition of global coastal observing system components in the
Adriatic Sea
Subtask 6130: Definition of global coastal observing system components in the
Western Mediterranean Sea
Subtask 6140: Design of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between
participating institutions in the Global Med Coastal Network
(Please Agustin, decide and spell out exactly which system is going to be inserted.
Please everybody, indicate the single stations or group of stations! Please put the river
run-off data in each relevant part of the Med)
Please Vlado (partner 11) contact directly Deserti (ARPA, partner 47) for Po river
data!
Task 6200: Preparation of the NRT global coastal observing system network
Subtask 6210: Data quality control and transmission protocol for meteorological,
waves, currents, temperature and salinity observations.
Subtask 6220: Data quality control and transmission protocol for sea level
observations
Subtask 6230: Data quality control and transmission protocol for chlorophyll and
nutrient observations
19
Subtask 6240: Data quality control and transmission protocol for nutrient loading
and river runoff observations
(I suggest responsible is Waleed Hamza from Egypt, partner 41)
Subtask 6250: Implementation plan of the data quality control and transmission
protocol
Task 6300: Development of Global Mediterranean Coastal Network Web pages
Subtask 6310 Design of the NRT data Web sites network
Subtask 6320 Design of the associated ftp sites for data transfer
Subtask 6330 Dissemination of data
(Agustin, you should have received a contribution from CLU (partner 25) for this
Task )
Task 6400: NRT data collection through the Global Mediterranean Coastal
Network
Subtask 6410: Transmission in delayed mode during pre-TOP phase
(responsible should be Nittis in my opinion)
Subtask 6420: Transmission in NRT during TOP and post-TOP phases
(responsible should be Nittis in my opinion)
Subtask 6430: Assessment the system
(responsible should be you in my opinion)
20
6.d.3.7
WP7- Development of multivariate estimation tools
for the basin scale and for coastal regions
Overview
(Pierre could you split your text between the three new headings of the workapckage?
Thanks)
General Objectives of Workpackage
The purpose of work package 7 in MFSTEP is to take care of the Research and
Development (R&D) tasks concerning estimation tools in the project, at all three
dynamical model levels (basin-scale, regional, shelf). The specific innovative
objectives include:
 Development of tools to initialize a model from a coarser-grid solution, to be used
by all regional and shelf modelling partners in work package 9, and to
dynamically project the solution onto the desired physics
 Improvement of data assimilation tools at the basin scale, in a consistent way with
work package 8, and using the teachings of the previous MFSPP project
 Development of completely new data assimilation tools at the regional scale, in
the perspective of operational use in a phase following the present project
 Demonstration of the interest of assimilating local observations in addition to
initialization and boundary forcing, and building of a new capacity to test the
impact of local observations, including tide gauges, local cruises, ADCP, etc.
 Demonstration of advanced estimation approaches concerning the open boundary
conditions (ensemble forecasts, two-way nesting, four-dimensional variational
analysis)
 Exploration of the main error processes in regional and shelf models, in both the
low- and the high-frequency ranges, their spatial structure, how they affect
predictability, and how they can be corrected for.
On the basin scale, our strategy will logically be to build upon MFSPP and go forward
from there, taking he conclusions of MFSPP and of the 2000 TOP period as our inputs
for improvement.
On the regional and shelf scales, one of the key R&D objectives will be to develop
and test methods to run a model (resp. regional or shelf) with the use of a larger-scale
solution (resp. GCM or regional). The approaches we consider are:
1. Variational initialization (a 3Dvar method with a penalty that kills the fast gravity
wave transients)
2. A variant which uses ensemble forecasts for the state and for the errors as well as
data forcing, implemented as a new sequential data assimilation scheme for
coastal models with variational analysis called HYDRA
3. A two-way coupling approach permitting (in a later phase of the project)
upscaling from coastal/littoral observations
4. A 4D-var approach with addition of the boundary conditions in the controls.
Our protocol for testing these estimation approaches will be the following,
respectively, for the above list:
21
1. Scientific testing and exploitation in work package 9, in particular a variant which
allows for some desired "fast" gravity waves (response to HF pressure/wind
forcing, tides)
2. In this work package, in the Gulf of Lyons and in the Cilician basin
3. In this work package, in the Gulf of Lyons
4. In this work package, in the Gulf of Lyons
General Products of Workpackage
Methods
This work package makes use of the following dynamical ocean model
configurations:
Numerical Type
code
Of code
FSM1
Regional 3D
Regional 3D
Shelf 3D
FSM2
Regional 3D
Shelf 3D
FSM3
Regional 3D
Coastal 3D
FSM4
Regional 3D
Shelf 3D
GCM1
Basin 3D
SWM1
Basin 2D
Configuration
Partner
PC
Estimation
approach
VI, OI (Mark-II)
VI, OI (Mark-II)
VI, HYDRA
VI, EVI, HYDRA
VI, EVI
two-way nesting
ALERMO, as in wp9
Adriatic, as in wp9
Cilician basin, as in wp9
NWMED, as in wp9
Gulf of Lyons, as in wp9
NW Mediterranean
Gulf of Lyons
NW Mediterranean
NW Mediterranean
As in wp8
As in wp9
PF
PG
PD
PA
PE
4Dvar
PG, PA
PA
OI (Mark-III)
Not run in wp
We use the following notations:
 GCM is General circulation model
 FSM is Fine-scale model (regional or coastal/shelf)
 SWM is Shallow-water model
Tasks
TASK 7100: Code and data dissemination
Subtask 7110 : Documentation, maintenance and distribution of the variational
initialization method
Subtask 7120 : Workpackage 7 web site
TASK 7200: Development of regional and coastal estimation methods
Subtask 7210: Extensions to the initialization procedure
Subtask 7220: Development of a hybrid sequential assimilation method in regional
models
TASK 7300: Regional and coastal estimation experiments in the Scientific
Validation Periods
Subtask 7310: Exploration of the model error subspace and predictability
22
Subtask 7320: Assimilation in the Northwestern Mediterranean with HYDRA
Subtask 7330: Assimilation in the Cilician basin with HYDRA
Subtask 7340: Demonstration of the two-way nesting
Subtask 7350: Demonstration of the 4D-var initial/boundary condition optimization
Subtask 7360: Assimilation in ALERMO
Subtask 7370: Assimilation in ADRICOSM
(Pierre I will send you my text for ADRICOSM soon)
TASK 7400: Basin-scale data assimilation studies
Subtask 7410: Assembly of the Mark-III DAS for MFSTEP
Subtask 7420: Analyses and reanalyses of MFSPP TOP
(Pierre I think we should have this Task in your workpackage, please Entcho give the
text as we discussed)
23
6.d.3.8
WP8- Forecasting at the basin scale
Overview
The basin scale forecasting in the Mediterranean Sea has started in January 2000 and
it is continuing since then. The system is functioning with a weekly analysis cycle and
a weekly ten days forecast cycle. It uses satellite and VOS-XBT data that were started
to be collected in NRT during MFSPP: The model used is an OGCM at 1/8 x 1/8
degrees and 31 levels which is eddy permitting but not eddy resolving in many areas
of the Mediterranean. The assimilation scheme used is SOFA that has been
implemented in a multivariate smoother and filter mode. Details of the scheme are
presented in Appendix ?.
Analysis of forecast skill scores showed that:
1) Upper mixed layer temperature forecast skill score was always below 0.7 deg C
and always beat persistence score;
2) Sea level rms misfit was, on a six months average, about 6 cm and periods of
higher errors could be found where the model was enable to capture rapid changes
in the upper thermocline structure such as the peak summer conditions;
3) The usage of multivariate EOF in SOFA to solve the Optimal Interpolation
problem can be shown to be robust provided care is taken in the definition of the
time update of the EOF.
General Objectives of Workpackage
This package will further develop and improve the existing MFSPP system for
operational forecast at basin scale. The improvement will include set up of a highresolution ocean general circulation model (OGCM) and the implementation of the
Mark III data assimilation scheme. In addition, the procedures to disseminate in NRT
the analysis and forecast fields will be defined in order to start the regional/shelf
forecasts.
General Products of Workpackage
1) New basin scale forecasting OGCM at 1/16 x 1/16 degrees resolution, large
Atlantic domain, 61 levels.
2) Implementation of Mark III SOFA assimilation scheme, defined in WP7
3) Weekly forecasts during TOP and post-TOP
4) Dissemination of OGCM forecasts to WP9
Methods
Description of OGCM
Description of SOFA and EOF
Tasks
Task 8100 Preparation and test of a high resolution forecasting OGCM
Subtask 8110 Development of high resolution OGCM
Subtask 8120 OGCM simulation with perpetual year forcing.
24
Subtask 8130 OGCM simulation with atmospheric analysis forcing
Task 8200 Implementation of MARK III data assimilation scheme
Subtask 8210: Implementation design
Subtask 8220: Tests during the Scientific Validation Periods
Task 8300 Real time forecasting
Subtask 8310 Preparation to forecasting
Subtask 8320 Forecasting during TOP
Task 8400 Forecast skills assessment.
Subtask 8410. Forecast skills scores definition and dissemination
Subtask 8420. Statistical reanalysis and reassessment of the basin scale forecast.
Task 8500 Dissemination and exploitation of MFSTEP basin scale forecasts
Subtask 8510 Design and implementation of MFSTEP basin scale forecasting website
Subtask 8520 Design and implementation of daily basin scale forecasting Bulletin
Subtask 8530 Design and implementation of a monthly basin scale forecasting
Bulletin
Subtask 8540 Model data archiving and operational access to data
Subtask 8550 Exploitation of forecast data
Task 8600: NRT Lagrangian diagnostics on the forecast velocity field
Subtask 8610: Implementation of particles offline integration algorithm in the
OGCM
Subtask 8620: Operational offline integration of Lagrangian particles
Subtask 8630: Analysis of processed Lagrangian data
25
6.d.3.9
WP9-The forecasting at regional/shelf scale
Overview
The purpose of Workpackage 9 is to evaluate and demonstrate the feasibility of near
real time 3-7 days forecasts at regional/shelf scale. Setting up a near real time forecast
system for the Mediterranean region requires modelling techniques to treat the open
boundary conditions problem (nested numerical models), initialisation procedures in
order to downscale model solutions in a dynamical consistent way and asynchronous
air-sea coupling methods in order to provide realistic surface boundary conditions to
the hydrodynamics.
MFSPP has already demonstrated the feasibility of rigid-lid/free-surface and freesurface/free-surface models nesting at different spatial scales (global Mediterranean,
regional and shelf) on the climatological basis. Validation of nesting techniques
developed has shown that i) the inner model (high resolution) solution compares
satisfactorily well with the outer model (coarse resolution) solution and ii) reflection
at the nesting boundaries of various types of waves generated in the inner model
domain is generally suppressed.
The model initialization problem is of central importance for a short-range near real
time forecast system. A proper initialization procedure produces balanced initial
conditions that do not excite inertia-gravity oscillations in model integration, which
contaminate the forecasting result. This is of great importance for coastal models that
due to the bathymetric steep slopes they usually encompass, are prone to produce high
frequency oscillations when the coarser model solution is downscaled by simple
interpolation techniques onto their model grid. Moreover, these models have usually a
free-surface which in contrast to the rigid-lid assumption cannot filter out fast moving
waves with catastrophic sometimes consequences for the limited time forecast itself.
Among different approaches to treat the initialization problem (damping time
integration procedures, adjoint model) regional and shelf models within WP9 will
make use of a 3D variational initialization method which minimizes a cost function
based on data constraints and dynamical penalties which involve the tangent linear
model. Such a technique designed to satisfy both statistical and dynamical constraints
leads to a drastic reduction of numerically generated external gravity waves and
produces a dynamically consistent model initialization field (Auclair et al. 2000b).
The forecast skill will be also dependent on the quality and the way that boundary
conditions at the surface are specified. First of all, atmospheric forcing resolution will
be increased with respect to the ECMWF forcing used in the basin scale forecast.
Nested atmospheric models developed in WP10 will force the regional/shelf forecasts.
Secondly different formulations of the bulk air-sea interface physics should be tried to
‘tune’ the coupling between the regional/shelf scale models to the atmospheric
forcing.
In model simulations surface boundary conditions are applied in one of three ways: i)
using prescribed momentum and heat/freshwater flux fields obtained from a variety of
sources as was done during MFSPP where the flux fields had been obtained using the
ECMWF 1979-1993 re-analysis data and an optimized set of bulk formulae (Korres,
26
2001) , ii) fluxes are computed by the hydrodynamical model itself using proper bulk
formulae and properties across the air-sea interface in a so called one-way air-sea
interaction scheme (Rosati and Miyakoda, 1988, Pinardi et al., 1997, Castellari et al.,
1999) and iii) fluxes are computed using turbulence-based formulations (Fairall et al.,
1996).
The strong disadvantage of using prescribed flux fields is the elimination of any
feedback mechanism between the atmosphere and ocean while the advantage apart
from being computationally inexpensive is the assurance of accurate (but not
necessarily realistic) forcing for the hydrodynamic model. The second and third
methods on the other hand, have been extensively used in coupled ocean-atmosphere
studies, in ocean forecast systems and have been tested (the second one) within the
Mediterranean basin. The strategy to be followed within WP9 as far as the
atmosphere-ocean asynchronous coupling is concerned closely resembles method (ii)
with two important modifications:
a) the net short-wave radiative flux at the sea surface will be provided directly by
the atmospheric model at high frequency intervals (in order to avoid
over/underestimation of solar heat flux gain) instead of being estimated by a
bulk formula (for example Reed, 1977). This is the optimal approach since the
short-wave radiative flux at the sea surface is routinely computed by the
atmospheric models using advanced radiative transfer algorithms which take
into consideration the vertical structure of the atmosphere (inclusion of
Saharian dust effects, etc.). At the same time the upward short-wave radiation
is only loosely coupled with the sea surface state and thus accurately
parameterized by the atmospheric model.
b) The downward long-wave radiation at the sea surface will be also provided
directly by the atmospheric model based on the same reasoning as in (a) while
the upward part will be computed by the model itself using the StefanBoltzmann law and proper sea surface emissivity values.
(Alex, I believe this part should be not here, should be shorter and in a subtask. I do
not agree that now we fix what we do with the two strategy, we need to experiment)
General Objectives of Workpackage
1. Implement Tangent Linear Initialization
2. Carry out weekly 3-7 days forecasts in NRT at regional and shelf scale
3. Assess skill of forecast
4. Advanced model implementation in regional/shelf areas
(Alex please verify that I have modified, we should not check ETA model here)
General Products of Workpackage
Methods
Tasks
Task 9100 Regional/shelf scale model preparation to forecasting
(Alex, in addition to the subtasks that we discussed at the telephone, I would put here
the question of how to couple the atmo. with the models. I do not agree we should try
‘novel approaches)
27
Task 9200 Pre-TOP experiments
Subtask 9210 Coupling of Regional and Shelf models with high resolution
Subtask 9220 Study of high frequency forcing effects both from atmospheric
Subtask 9230 Production of data distribution protocols from regional to shelf
(Alex please modify as discussed at the telephone)
Task 9300. Implementation of Tangent Linear Initialization method
(Alex please modify as discussed at the telephone)
Task 9400 NRT 3-5 days forecasts
(Alex please modify as discussed at the telephone)
Task 9500 Advanced regional/shelf model implementation
Subtask 9.5.1. Application of Very High Resolution Winds (~5 Km).
Subtask 9.5.2. Inclusion of tidal and atmospheric pressure forcing
Task 9600 Assessment of forecast skill at regional/shelf scales
(Alex, please take inspiration from WP8, please ask Entcho)
Task 9700: Regional Forecast Web network and dissemination
Subtask 9710 Standard’s definition for regional forecast Web network
Subtask 9720 Design of regional Daily forecast bulletin
Subtask 9730 Implementation of regional forecast website and bulletin
Subtask 9740 Dissemination of data
(Please note that I have changed from our discussion at the telephone: now we need a
responsible and partners, as everybody else has done)
28
6.d.3.10
WP10- The atmospheric forcing and interaction
studies
Overview
It is well known by now that shelf and coastal areas require high resolution
atmospheric forcing in space and time since the ocean response can be at very high
wavenumber and frequency, i.e., it is strongly dependent from the surface boundary
conditions of momentum, heat and water fluxes. For this reason, the regional and
shelf models will be coupled to atmospheric high-resolution models, called Limited
Area Models.
The LAMs require initial and boundary conditions to be defined for such operations.
The initial and boundary conditions are based either on ECMWF or NCEP global
gridded forecasts. The areas covered and/or the horizontal grid increments used are at
medium to short range (horizontal grid increments ranging from 5-7 to 30 Km). At
very high resolution, non-hydrostatic models should be needed for applications with
horizontal grid increments comparable to the atmospheric scale height.
A typical duration of such operational LAMs is ranging from 48 to 72 hours.
Recently, with the availability of the Global-Coverage Models (GCM) outputs at
smaller time increments (every 3 hours) the limited area forecasting time periods
started to become longer, maintaining high levels of forecasts skills.
In marine oriented applications of atmospheric models, the SST quality and resolution
and the air-sea physics used to represent the marine surface layer give a serious
concern. In addition, the sea surface roughness, i.e., the wave field could be important
for both atmospheric and ocean forecasts. The widely used method of coupling
atmospheric and ocean circulation models is the coupling of the energy fluxes by
using various types of bulk formulations. In addition, the wind fields calculated at a
standard level are used for drag estimations. More advanced methods of coupling
have started to develop such as the viscous sublayer parameterisation that allows the
wind calculations to be done very close to the ocean surface (a few cm or mm).
Obviously, the utilisation of such a capability can improve the coupling procedures
between the atmospheric and ocean models and lead to a better description of the
surface processes. Research is underway to study the various methods to couple
atmosphere and ocean at various scales.
(George, I have modified this, please check)
General Objectives of Workpackage
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
Carry out weekly 5 days atmospheric forecasts in NRT at 7 km resolution for
the whole Med. Area to drive regional/shelf scale ocean forecasts
Development of better atmospheric –ocean coupling methodologies.
Utilization of state of the art atmospheric models (hydrostatic/non-hydrostatic)
for basin/shelf ocean simulations: benefits vs cost.
Explore the atmospheric effects from the sea surface parameters (GCM/OGCM
forecasted SST, wave conditions, utilization of various spatiotemporal SST
resolutions).
Exploitation of the influence of extreme weather events on the ocean circulation
at regional/shelf scales.
29
f.
g.
Organized validation procedures for highly sensitive parameters like winds,
fluxes, precipitation etc. Evaluation of existing/new operations of various scales
(skill scores).
Develop fully coupled regional ocean-atmosphere model
General Products of Workpackage
Methods
Tasks
Task 10100 NRT atmospheric forcing for ocean forecasts
Subtask 10110 Preparation to TOP period (both ECMWF and downscaled)
Subtask 10120 Atmospheric forecasts during the TOP (downscaled)
Subtask 10130 Atmospheric forecast dissemination
Task 10200 Development of new air-sea physics to couple the atmospheric
models with ocean models
Subtask 10210. Sensitivity experiments to heat fluxes
Subtask 10220 Sensitivity experiments to momentum fluxes (wave)
Subtask 10230 Implementation of surface parameters assimilation into LAM
Task 10300 Atmospheric response to sea surface parameters.
Subtask 10310. Usage of high-resolution satellite data SST for atmospheric model
initialisation.
Subtask 10320 Assimilation of predicted (OCGM) SST fields in the SKIRON/Eta
system.
Task 10400 Implementation of very high resolution atmospheric models
Subtask 10410 Shelf areas of NE Aegean
Subtask 10420 Malta shelf area
Subtask 10430 Western Mediterranean area
Task 10500 Coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling
Task 10600. Evaluation of the NRT regional scale atmospheric models
Subtask 10610 Evaluation of NRT downscaled forecast quality
Subtask 10620 Evaluation of the very high resolution experiments.
Subtask 10630 Evaluation of the benefits (if any) of running high-resolution forecasts
Subtask 10640 Evaluation of the sea-surface winds based on wave measurements.
(George we need to talk at the telephone about this workpackage, please call me as
soon as possible)
30
6.d.3.11
WP11-Nesting ecosystem models from basin to shelf
scale
Overview
General Objectives of Workpackage
 Develop and disseminate a generic pelagic and benthic biogeochemical flux model
(BFM) based upon MFSPP experience
 Implement the BFM coupled with the OGCM at the basin scale
 Implement the BFM coupled with Regional and Shelf hydrodynamic models.
 Development of nesting techniques for ecosystem state variables to couple the
OGCM, Regional and Shelf Models.
 Carry out simulations of the ecosystem dynamics during the TOP period using
realistic (high frequency) surface forcing.
 Evaluation of model quality and calibration issues.
(Marco I have made changes, please check)
General Products of Workpackage
(Marco, please write)
Methods
(Marco, please write)
Tasks
Task 11100: Model development
Subtask 11110: Biogeochemical Fluxes Community Model (BFM) development
Subtask 11120:Development of a sediment resuspension module
Subtask 11130: Development of a coupling interface (coupler)
Subtask 11140: Development of a computationally efficient positive definite advection
numerical scheme
Task 11200: Preparation of external input climatology for coupled OGCM,
Regional and Shelf Models
Task 11300: OGCM Coupled Model Development
Subtask 11310: Definition of basic processes of the BFM to be included in the version
coupled with OGCM
Subtask 11320: Preparation of initial conditions for the coupled OGCM.
Subtask 11330: Initial parameters setting
Task 11400: OGCM Coupled Model simulations
Subtask 11410 Perpetual year simulations
Subtask 11420 Realistic high frequency forcing simulations (TOP Period)
31
(Marco I Task 11300 e 11400 vanno assieme perche’ l’implementazione puo’
contenere anche I due tipi di esperimenti nella descrizione e nei deliverables)
Task 11500:BFM implementation in Regional Models
Subtask 11510: Adriatic Sea implementation
Subtask 11520 ALERMO (Levantine Basin and Aegean Sea) implementation
Subtask 11530 NW-Mediterranean implementation.
Subtask 11540: Definition of initial conditions for the coupled regional models
Subtask 11550: Initial parameters setting for the Coupled Regional Models
Task 11600:Regional Models simulations
Subtask 11610 Coupled Regional Models perpetual year simulations
Subtask 11620: Coupled regional Models realistic high frequency forcing simulations
(TOP Period)
(Marco I Task 11500 e 11600 vanno assieme perche’ l’implementazione puo’
contenere anche I due tipi di esperimenti nella descrizione e nei deliverables)
Task 11700: BFM implementation in Shelf Models
Subtask 11710: Catalan Sea implementation
Subtask 11720: Egyptian coast implementation
Subtask 11730: Gulf of Lions implementation
Subtask 11740: Israel coast implementation
Subtask 110705: Northern Adriatic implementation
Subtask 11760: Northern Crete implementation
Subtask 11770: Turkish coast implementation
Subtask 11780: Definition of initial conditions for the coupled shelf models
Subtask 11790: Initial parameters setting for the Coupled Shelf Models
Task 11800:Shelf Models simulations.
(Marco anche Task 11600 e 11700 vanno assieme perche’ l’implementazione puo’
contenere anche I due tipi di esperimenti nella descrizione e nei deliverables)
Task 11900:Evaluation of model results.
Task 1?????:Development of WP11 Web server.
Marco we need to justify so many model implementation on the basis of a study of
‘generic’ biochemcial flux model
32
6.d.3.12
WP12-The development of data assimilation for
biochemical observations
Overview
The prediction of the spatial and temporal variability of the physical and
biogeochemical characteristics of the Mediterranean marine ecosystem is a fully
coupled coastal – open ocean problem. It requires a solution, which concerns the
general circulation problem together with the appropriate description of ecological
processes. The state of the art in forecasting the Mediterranean Sea is a preoperational system for it its physical components. Near real-time forecasts are being
made for temperature, salinity and surface velocity fields for the whole basin using a
combination of hydrodynamic models, near real-time data collection and data
assimilation periods up to ten days. While such a system exists for ocean physics, the
scientific knowledge and technological capacity to construct such a system for the
ecosystem is currently lacking. WP12 will contribute towards improved and
innovative, coupled physical, biogeochemical models with emphasis on data
assimilation techniques and the inter-comparison of simulations.
The aim is to develop sophisticated data assimilation schemes in order to examine to
what extent primary production in the Mediterranean Sea (regional, shelf) can be
predicted with 3D ecosystem models, using satellite and in-situ observations.
An operational forecast system requires models of appropriate spatial coverage, which
means that fine-scale models established in regions of operational interests, will be
used. The rationale is that both the coastal zones and open ocean, interact significantly
and the coastal areas require very high resolution to simulate transport and turbulence
processes in the water column.
To achieve predictive capabilities, deterministic ecosystem models need to be updated
with biological, physical and chemical data at the relevant space – time scales. Data
assimilation schemes provide the appropriate techniques for updating and initializing
models and assessing them in predictive mode. Significant effort is required to
implement and to evaluate assimilation techniques with ecosystem models and WP12
aims to achieve this through the implementation and inter comparison of the Optimal
Interpolation (OI) and Singular Evolutive Extended Kalman Filter (SEEK) methods.
General Objectives of Workpackage
 Data assimilation schemes for biogeochemical variables will be implemented
within the models developed from the WP11 and hindcast numerical experiments
will be undertaken. Methodologies for the inter-comparison of simulations will be
developed to evaluate the performance of the model systems and to make
recommendations for the development of pre-operational forecast system.
 To demonstrate a capability to hindcast phytoplankton biomass on regional and
shelf sea scales by evaluating the predictive capability of ecosystem models of
different complexity using data assimilation systems.
33
 To develop and evaluate the performance of biogeochemical data assimilation
systems suitable for use in a pre-operational context.
 To determine the intrinsic predictability time scales of the specific ecosystems in
the Mediterranean Sea and to investigate the limiting factors that determine these.
 To make a significant contribution to the development of the necessary
infrastructure to make continuous predictions of marine ecosystem variability.
 To make recommendations for the future developments of a pre-operational
forecast system for Mediterranean ecosystems.
General Products of Workpackage
Methods
Tasks
Task 12100 Data collection, validation data and forcing functions for the
hindcast experiments
Task 12200 Development of Kalman Filter Data Assimilation Schemes
Subtask 12220 Regional Scale Models
Subtask 12230 Shelf Scale Models
Task 12.3 Development of Variational Algorithm of Data Assimilation
Task 12.4 Hindcast Experiments in Data Rich Areas
Subtask 12410 Twin Experiments
Subtask 12420 Assessment of Assimilation Schemes
Subtask 12430 Hindcast Experiments with Data Assimilation (1999 – 2000)
(please George do not distinguish between Cretan Sea and Adriatic we are going to do
the same, leave only the subtask and not the subsubtasks)
Task 12500 Dissemination of WP12 Results
34
6.d.3.13
WP13-The OSSE studies for hydrodynamics and
ecosystem predictions
Overview
The Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) approach was first adopted in
the meteorological community to assess the impact of “future” (i.e. not available from
current instruments) observations to improve numerical weather predictions and more
recently for NASA Earth Observing System (Atlas et al., 1985a,b; Arnold and Dey,
1986; Hoffman et al., 1990).
In addition, OSSEs have been also run to evaluate trade-offs in the design of
observing systems and observing networks (e.g. Atlas and Emmitt, 1991; Rohaly and
Krishnamurti, 1993), and to test new methodology for data assimilation (Atlas and
Bloom, 1989). In oceanography examples of studies on sampling strategy
optimization, or assessment towards optimization, involve satellite tracks (Kindle,
1986; Greenslade et al., 1997; Le Traon and Dibarboure, 1999; Le Traon et al., 2001),
ship-of-opportunity tracks (Bennett, 1990), acoustic tomography arrays (Barth and
Wunsch, 1990), drifters (Hernandez et al., 1994), mooring arrays (Smith and Meyers,
1996; Hackert et al., 1998).
A major problem affecting an observing system is the definition of a suitable
observational network, which should ideally be “optimal” (according to some criteria)
for the specific purpose for which it is setup. In practice the design of the observing
system is generally constrained by several logistic and economic reasons and an
optimization is hard to achieve. OSSEs can be used to assess and compare the
usefulness of the various sampling strategies and data combinations which can be
adopted in the observing system.
The OSSE approach generally consists in: a) simulating the observing system using a
model that is supposed to represent the “truth”, b) reconstructing the ocean state from
these simulated data using a mapping or a data assimilation technique, and c)
assessing the contribution of the simulated observing system through the comparison
of the reconstructed fields with the model reference fields.
In case of data assimilation techniques, the following model runs are carried out a) a
Control Run, representing the “true” ocean and providing the simulated data to be
used in the assimilation; b) an Assimilation Run, which differs from the Control Run
in some way (e.g. initial conditions, parameterizations, etc.) and is driven towards the
truth by the assimilation of the data extracted from the Control Run; c) a Free Run,
initialized as the Assimilation Run but without data assimilation, which is used to
assess the model attitude to converge to the truth due to the external forcing only.
Mapping techniques can be seen as a simplified case where only a (seasonal)
climatology and an a priori statistical information (covariance) on the field to be
mapped are used to reconstruct the ocean state. They are generally used to quantify
the impact of the data themselves and they provide robust results that do not depend
on the data assimilation technique used to assess the contribution of the observing
system. These two approaches (data assimilation and mapping) are thus very
complementary and will be used in the WP.
General Objectives of Workpackage
35
In this workpackage numerical experiments will be performed with the aim of
assessing the quality of sampling strategies and data combinations, which are already
or can be potentially included in the MFS observing system. The OSSE concentrate
on hydrodynamic measurements such as temperature and salinity derived from VOS,
M3a buoy stations and ARGO and on satellite ocean color measurements.
General Products of Workpackage
This study is expected to contribute to improve the design of components of the
observing system.
(Fabio please add more)
Methods
….by evaluating their impact on the forecasting system via data assimilation and
mapping techniques.
(Fabio please add more)
Tasks
Task 13100 OSSEs with hydrodynamical parameters
Subtask 13110: VOS track networks
Subtask 13120: M3A buoy networks
Subtask 13130: Combination of VOS and M3A data
Task 13200 OSSEs with ARGO floats
Subtask 13210: TS profile assimilation
Subtask 13220: Position assimilation
Subtask 13230: Simultaneous assimilation of TS profiles and float positions
Task 13300 – Impact of MedARGO data for the estimation of the 3D
temperature and salinity fields simultaneously with SST and altimeter data
Subtask 13310 : MedARGO data alone
Subtask 13320 : Complementarity of Med ARGO data with altimetry and SST
Task 13400 – Ocean Color OSSEs for the Mediterranean Sea
Subtask 13410: Forecast model setup
Subtask 13420: Instrument forward model
Subtask 13430: Sampling strategy sensitivity
(Fabio there ius no OSSE for coastal networks and/or gliders, somebody wants to take
the idea?)
How about the biochemical data from M3As?
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6.d.3.14
WP14- The data management system for NRT
observations and model data
Overview
General Objectives of Workpackage
The overall goal of this workpackage is to provide the data management structure for
data formatting, quality checking, archiving and distribution from the different
MFSTEP data sources to partners and external users. This structure will be designed
from the existing Operational Oceanography structures of the international projects
ARGO and MFSPP to meet the specific requirements of the new project.
WP14 will contribute to the definition of the MFSTEP protocol for formats and
quality assurance assessments. This protocol will be based on the international
recommendations of UNESCO/IOC, the global project GTSPP and ARGO, and the
experience gained in European projects carried out in the Mediterranean like MTPIIMATER, MEDAR.
General Products of Workpackage
Methods
Tasks
Task 14100: Design of the data management structure
Fig 1: MFSTEP data management scheme
37
Fig. 2 : In-situ database functionalities
Task 14200: Exchange Formats
Task 14300: Quality control protocols for the observed data and software
adaptation
Subtask 14310: Quality control protocols
Subtask 14320: QC software adaptation and transfer to partners
Task 14400: Data Flow Organization
Task 14500: Meta-data management and general web pages at ADDC
Sub task 14510: General web pages at ADDC
Subtask 14520: Meta-data management
Task 14600: VOS/XBT and XBT-F data
Subtask 14610: Loading in the database and check for duplicates
Subtask 14620: Quality checks
Subtask 14630: Archiving and dissemination
(Loic, This should be consistent with WP1 please check with Manzella, get their
complete version)
Task 14700: M3A multi-parameters mooring data
Subtask 14710: Near Real Time Quality Control for M3A Data
Subtask 14720: NRT data dissemination through the GTS
Subtask 14730: Near Real Time archival for M3A Data
Subtask 14740: Reformatting and Delayed mode data quality control
Subtask 14750: Delayed Mode archival and dissemination for M3A Data
(Loic, This should be consistent with WP1 please check with Kostas, get their
complete version. Please be sure you do not duplicate)
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Task 14800: MEDARGO subsurface drifting profilers
Subtask 14810: Set up of data centres and field tests of 2 floats in open sea
Subtask 14820: Loading in the database and check for duplicates data reception
Subtask 14830: Near Real Time Quality Control for the MEDARGO subsurface
drifting profilers
Subtask 14840: Final archiving and data dissemination
Task 14900: GLIDERS data
Subtask 14910 GLIDERS: NRT data transmission trials
Subtask 14920: Near Real Time Quality Control for the GLIDERS
Subtask 14930: Dissemination through the GTS
Please Loic, contact directly Uwe Send and sednd him this Task for his comments
Task 141000: Coastal and Mooring Data Management
Please Loic, contact Agustin for this, it should be almos clear what we do there
Task 141100: Model output data archiving
(Loic, I will try to write some more here but it will be late..)
Task 141200: Final dissemination and exploitation of MFSTEP data products on
CD ROM
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6.d.3.15
WP15- Derived applications
Overview
(George, in what you have written you have already the basis for this, please try to fit
your text within this scheme)
General Objectives of Workpackage
The overall objective of the WP15 is to develop and demonstrate the usage of the
MFSTEP products in providing operational support of end-users activities, such as
marine pollution and disaster mitigation in the open and coastal/shelf areas, fisheries
management, search and rescue operations.
The WP15 develops this objective in two directions:the first, test cases applications
with end-users involvement will be demonstrated; the second, concerns development
of tools towards future end-user applications.
General Products of Workpackage
The derived applications in the WP15 are:
Oil spill modelling predictions and improvement of existing prediction systems
Coastal and open sea contaminant fate predictions
Marine resources management and development
Supporting the marine search operations
Export of model analyses and forecasts for end-users
Methods
The objectives will be met by using the following methodology:
1. Development of Near Real Time data transmission of the WP8 basin scale and
WP9 regional and shelf scale forecast products to the derived applications users.
2. Upgrade of existing derived application models. The upgrading should be met in
order to serve the needs of users.
3. Visualization and exportation GIS capacity building for distributing the derived
information to end-users.
Tasks
Task 15100 : Oil spill predictions and improvement of existing systems
Subtask 15110 : Oil spill modelling predictions in the Levantine Basin
Subtask 15120 : Oil spill modelling predictions in the Israel shelf/coastal zone
Subtask 15130 : Oil spill modelling predictions in the Egyptian shelf/coastal zone
Subtask 15140 : Oil spill modelling predictions in the Lebanese shelf/coastal zone
Subtask 15150 : Oil spill predictions in the Maltese shelf/coastal zone
Subtask 15160 : Improvement of existing oil spill modelling predictions system in the
Aegean Sea
Subtask 15170 : Oil spill modelling predictions and rapid assessment in the LigurianThyrrenian seas
40
Subtask 15180: Improvement of existing oil spill modelling predictions system in the
Catalan shelf/coastal zone
Subtask 15190: Improvement of existing operational oil spill and objects drift
predictions system in western Mediterranean Sea
(Split this into two substasks 16190 and 15710, please)
Task 15200 : Coastal and open sea contaminants fate predictions
Subtask 15210 : Advection-Diffusion predictions in the Cyprus shelf/coastal zone
Subtask 15220: Advection diffusion predictions and cohesive sediment transport in
the Thermaikos gulf
Subtask 15230: Advection Diffusion predictions in the Catalan shelf/coastal zone
Task 15300 : A relocatable forecasting system for the Mediterranean Sea
Subtask 15310 : Relocatable system nesting in the MFSTEP OGCM model and tuning
Subtask 15320 : Simulated emergencies during TOP
Subtask 15330 : Ecological module implementation in the relocatable system
(This is new, please work on it!)
Task 15400 : Large pelagic fish monitoring and management
Subtask 15410 : Correlation of the MFSTEP products for the detection of pelagic
marine resources in the central part of the Mediterranean Sea
(This is still not well written, either we need more subtasks or we put only one Task)
Task 15500 Small pelagic fish monitoring and predictions
Subtask 15510. Development and implementation of marine resources observing
system in Adriatic
Subtask 15520. Development of NRT transmission of marine resources management
information in the Adriatic Sea
Subtask 15530. Relationships between environment and marine resources abundance
Task 15600: Export of model analyses and forecast for new end-users
Subtask 15610 : UVT software improvement
Subtask 15620 : UVT end-users documentation development
Subtask 15630 : UVT test case and training
Task 15700: Support for floating objects search operations
Subtask 15710: Forecasting the movement of floating objects in the Gulf of Lion
41
6.d.3.16
WP16- Economic impact studies
General Objectives of Workpackage
The aim of the economic impact studies is to provide to the existing user community
the evaluation in terms of costs and benefits of the ocean forecasting
General Products of Workpackage
Methods
- User community from WP15 and selection of cases studies
- Interaction with the user community in the implementation of the case studies
- Evaluation of the specific needs of some selected case studies
- Development of a cost-benefit model for the case studies
- Direct and indirect impacts will be taken into account in the economic model (input
output models)
- The model will evaluate the environmental damage at economic and social level
Tasks
Task 16100 Selection of economic studies test cases
Task 16200 Development of cost/benefit model
(Giorgio can you add the content and criticise?)
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