Santibañez Q.F. y P. Santibáñez V. 2007 Trends in Land Degradation in Latin America and the Caribbean, the role of climate change EN: Climate and Land Degradation World Meteorological Organization. Ginebra. Springer Verlag p 65-81 Trends in Land Degradation in Latin America and the Caribbean, the role of climate change. Fernando Santibáñez and Paula Santibáñez Centre on Agriculture and Environment (AGRIMED) University of Chile fsantiba@uchile.cl, www.agrimed.cl Latin America was under populated until the XVIII century. It was located far from the most populated centres of the world, like China, Africa and Europe where the first human concentrations emerged. This continent was characterized for civilizations demographically dispersed in the territory, living in a relative harmony with their natural resources. Demographic expansion started very slowly, only 500 year ago, after the arrival of European to colonize this land. For that reason this continent still conserve the most part of its original genetic resources and biomes. Latin America has probably the richest reserve of genetic resources of the world. This region provides habitat for about 40% of the known living species, has an important reserve of cultivated land and fresh water. About one third of the forest of the world lives in their important tropical and temperate biomes. Some areas of the Amazonian mass and of temperate sub Antarctic forest are among the less disturbed ecosystems that are still at pristine condition. Otherwise, Antarctic waters are well known for their rich marine biodiversity. Despite its genetic richness, important deforestation has affected mainly coastal ecosystems. Originally, this continent had 6.93 millions square Kilometres of forests. At present it has been reduced to 3.66 millions. Present rate of forest loss is 15.000 square Kilometres per year that is to say, almost 3 hectares per minute. Soils The agricultural potential of the region is estimated at 576 million hectares (UNEP GEO 2003). About 24% of the Americas are arid or semiarid (Sivakumar, 2007). The major cause of land degradation is the use of unsound cultivation practices. In South America, about 45 per cent of croplands are affected by land degradation. In MesoAmerica these figures are mare dramatic rising up to 74 per cent of cropland. The main source of deforestation in the Amazon is the expansion of croplands into previously forested areas. After some years, the soil degrades and crops are abandoned to give way to permanent pastures. Soybean production has been the main cause for the expansion of agricultural frontier in northern Argentina, eastern Paraguay and central Brazil. The arid lands are threatened by desertification and very often by droughts. Both phenomenons have high social costs pushing millions of people to move to cities, creating social pressure in urban areas. This is one of the sources of crime increase and political instability in many countries. Irrigated lands are about 15 millions hectares, the most part of them show symptoms of soil degradation. Nearly 20% of physical surface is already degraded Biodiversity The region contains 40 per cent of the plant and animal species of the planet. The biota of all countries is threatened. Only Brazil has 103 bird species threatened. Peru and Colombia occupy the fifth place in the world with 64 species each. A third of Chilean vertebrates are threatened. Brazil also has 71 threatened mammal species (the fourth highest in the world). More than 50 per cent of Argentinean mammals and birds are also threatened. Highlands of Bolivia, as higher as 3800 m in the border of Titicaca Lake, support intensive cultivation of annual crops (potatoes, quinoa). Risers of Lamas and Alpacas very often keep a stocking rate higher than carrying capacity of degraded grasslands, intensifying vegetation regression and soil degradation. The main processes of soil degradation in Highlands and mountain areas are water and wind erosion. The intensive extraction of water from wetlands is pushing them to desiccation, affecting the integrity of rich, biodiverse and unique ecosystems, having more than 70% of endemic species. The Valdivian Forest in Chile (dominated by Nothophagus spp) is one of the last extensive temperate rainforests of Southern Hemisphere. After a century of wood extraction, only 18% of the original Alerc forest survives. This is the second longevous species in the world (trees aged of more than 2500 years). At present it is very likely that this unique species is under her critical territory and forest structure to guarantee her conservation. At present, the rainy tropical forest continues to be cleared, mainly using fire, to open lands for annual crops and pastures. Just in one year (2000), more than 12,260 km2 of rainforests were cut in the Amazon basin. In the South Eastern coast of Brazil, the Mata Atlantica vegetation, considered a rich genetic reserve, has been reduced to small patches. South America's share of total tropical deforestation is 610,730 km2 /decade, while Central America and Mexico's share is 111,200 km2/ decade. These figures indicate a total rate of tropical deforestation higher whatever occurs elsewhere in the world. Water Latin American continent has big river basins with abundant water resources: the Amazon, Orinoco, São Francisco, Paraná, Paraguay and Magdalena rivers represent more than 30 per cent of continental runoff. Nevertheless, two-thirds of its territory is arid or semi-arid. These areas are located in central and northern Mexico, northeastern Brazil, West and South of Argentina, Northern Chile, Bolivia and South Western Peru. Normally arid and semiarid parts have high agricultural potential if irrigated. An area of 697 000 km2 is currently irrigated, corresponding to 3.4 per cent of the Latin American territory. Irrigated areas are affected by salinization and waterlogging due to bad management of irrigation systems. Human drivers and ecosystems Human drivers are normally called pressures upon natural resources. The main source of human pressure on soil comes from unsound agricultural practices and interventions on natural ecosystems to extract goods and services. As consequence of these human interventions the natural equilibriums are altered triggering the chain of degrading processes (Sivakumar, 2007). Food, raw materials and energy production, as well as mining and industrial activity, urbanization, tourism and other human activities, exert direct or indirect pressures on natural resources. All these human actions cause loss of mass, energy or information contained in natural systems, often taking them to irreversible simplification levels. Human actions on natural systems, tends to accelerate processes leading to dissipate energy, reducing its stock of internal energy and its stability or complexity (Mosekilde et al, 1991). Natural systems have the capability to absorb small temporary imbalances or pressures, restoring by themselves, i.e., recovering their structural and functional integrity. This resilience allows the ecosystems to stay unaffected through lingering periods of time despite changes of their environment (Schnoor J, 1996). Furthermore, natural systems have become stronger due to the slow and subtle climate changes occurred through the ages When the imbalances go beyond the system resilience capacity, transformations become permanent, state from which the system will not recover by itself. In such case the system has lost information or essential components, unrecoverable in human scales of time. Practically any component of a natural system can be modeled according to the outline in figure 1, i.e., as a balance among the forces that it push to its degradation and those that moves to its recovery. The important thing is to know which is the role of population in the input and output of matter, energy and information to and from the natural systems. Less resilience capacity of natural systems implies higher vulnerability. In general, the most complex systems or those that must complete longer cycles tend to be more vulnerable, as is the case of temperate forest and wetlands. In many cases the reproduction of the plant species and animals depend on delicate balances that, when suffering distortions, can impede the spawning of new generations that could guarantee the stability of an ecosystem. The simple removal of a plant species can put in risk the subsistence of an animal species that bases its subsistence on it, in turn, this can also puts in risk the survival of predators, triggering a series of processes whose end result is difficult to foresee. The pressures exerted by humans are not easily describable by a single parameter. Many times they are the result of multiple derived factors of human actions over the environment. Additionally, an action can have effects on different environmental components simultaneously, exercising multiple pressures over several natural resources. This is the case of the agriculture, activity for which the natural ecosystem balances must be radically modified exerting overwhelming pressures over plant and animal biodiversity, soil and water resource, all at once. Desertification Basically, desertification is the simplification and loss of the natural balances of the ecosystems characteristic of climates with water deficit, affecting the life quality of the inhabitants. The arid climates ecosystems have, in general, high levels of resilience. Nevertheless, they are considered fragile due to the high levels of water stress that affects the vegetation communities and the poor soil protection as a consequence of the reduction of plant cover. One of the most relevant human interventions that triggers or worsens the desertification process is the extraction of plant biomass, used as forage or fuel purposes. This reduces plant cover coverage, partially increasing soil vulnerability to the eroding action of climatic elements. Soil erosion reduces its fertility and its water holding capacity which, in turn, triggers a chain of processes that, through positive feedback, increases the ecosystem deterioration. Figure 1 shows a causality diagram of this chain of processes. Vegetation removal Anual Rainfall (+) (-) Plant cover (-) (-) overgrazing (-) Carrying capacity Rainfall exposure (+) Fertility and water hoding capacity (+) Soil Cultivation (-) Soil Erosion Figure 1. Diagram of causality representing the main processes leading to soil degradation. Climatic variability and precipitation intensity exacerbate the negative impacts of this vicious circle. All the processes that lead to desertification are gradual and continuous. Although degradation of the environmental components happens, in general, with some simultaneity, under determined managing conditions and depending on the nature of each ecosystem, it is possible that some components degrade faster than others do. This makes each degradation situation different from others not being possible to generalize a single route toward desertification. Nevertheless, it is necessary to have a numeric language that allows the representation and comparison of the various degradation profiles of the different ecosystems that compose a territorial system. Present trends of Climate Land degradation is a consequence of a combination of human and climatic drivers. Climate has been fluctuating forcing important landscape changes in the last thousand of years (Climatic trends are evident in extensive areas of the continent (Telegeinski-Ferraz et al, 2006). Temperature records in tropical Andes show a significant warming of about 0.33°C per decade since the mid-1970s. Minimum temperature in Chiclayo, Peru’s north coast, increased 2°C from the 1960s to 2000. Similar trends were observed in Chile (Rosemblüth B, 1997). The trend has been observed in the high plateau region in extreme southeastern Peru were minimum temperature has risen 2°C from 1960 to 2001. (http://www.climatehotmap.org/samerica.html). In the 20th century, temperature changed faster than in the precedent centuries, showing a clear acceleration in recent decades (Villalba et al, 2003)(Figure 2). Daily time series have shown no consistent changes in the maximum temperature while significant trends were found in minimum temperature, in Western and Eastern coastal regions of South America (Vincent et al, 2005). In the South Western Pacific coast, rainfall has shown a clear negative trend throughout the 20Th century. A contrary trend has been observed in the Atlantic coast of Argentina and Southern Brazil, like in many other parts of the world (IPCC, 2007). Mean annual precipitation in the humid Pampa increased by 35% in the last half of the 20th century (Figure 3). Figure 2. Surface temperature change in Brazil and Argentina over the last century (Source: Grid Arendal : http://maps.grida.no/go/region). Climatic variability seems to be increasing, making more frequent extreme climatic events of drought and floods (Aguilar et al, 2005). In the Amazonian basin water regime tend to move to a more arid condition due to deforestation which is reducing vapor transfer to the atmosphere (Durieux et al, 2003). Amazonian rain forest is one of the few examples of clear interaction among forest cover and mesoclimatic regime. In the overall continent a rapid reduction in the permanent ice bodies is observed, mainly Andean permafrost and glaciers, which moved upward their lower front about 300 meters or more in a century (Figure 4). Some glaciers from the Southern Argentina and Chile have retrieved hundred of meters and reduced its thickness at a rate of 100 centimeters per year. Glaciers in Patagonia have receded by an average of almost a mile (1.5 km) over the last 13 years. In 1972 Venezuelan Andes had 6 glaciers, at present only 2 remain, and it is expected that these will be gone within the next 10 years. All this trends are affecting the global hydrology of the Andean basins and water availability for irrigation of important agricultural areas in Chile, Argentina and Peru. Buenos Aires (Argentina) Relative precipitation 1,50 1,40 1,30 1,20 1,10 1,00 0,90 0,80 0,70 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 year Relative precipitation La Serena (Chile) 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50 0,00 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 year Figure 3. Running average (10 year period) of annual rainfall in Buenos Aires (Argentina) and La Serena (Chile) Figure 4. Retreat of Ice cap on Volcano Nevado Santa Isabel (Colombia). (Source: Grid Arendal : http://maps.grida.no/go/region). Ecosystems Ecosystem vulnerability depends on climatic agressivity and variability, soil type, vegetation resilience and landforms. Social vulnerability depends on ecosystem vulnerability, economic resources, access to technology and social structures and assistance networks. Highlands of the Andean region are very sensitive to climatic variations due to the presence of populated human settlements, the complex landforms and a dynamic hydrological system. Land slides and avalanches are a permanent threat for small villages and agricultural lands. In Mediterranean climates, having a long dry spring and summer, precipitations concentrates in a short rainy period of 3 to 4 month. When the first precipitations arrive, a dry bare soil is intensively eroded provoking massive sedimentation of rivers and lower lands. This phenomenon was exacerbated in the last century as a consequence of soil denudation, where dense chaparral and savannas were replaced by degraded annual herbs unable to protect soil from water and wind erosion. In some areas close to the cities, the Andean piedmont has been urbanized provoking a rapid run off and flooding during intensive precipitations. Main biomes of the continent are submits to different natural and human drivers or pressure. Pressure having a human origin depends on population density and productive use of natural resources. Natural pressure depend basically on climate change, that is forcing ecosystem to adapt to new environmental conditions and creating more adverse conditions for soil conservation. Normally human and natural drivers interact negatively making difficult to sustain the integrity of ecosystems. Another component of land degradation is ecosystem vulnerability, which can be defined as the property of natural vegetation, animal species and physical environment as a functional unity, to resist, absorb or to neutralize an external perturbation without having permanent modifications. Different biomes have different vulnerabilities depending on their capacity to restore their original condition after a human intervention or a natural environmental change. The figure 5 presents an estimation of present human and natural pressures, and estimated sensitivity of the main biomes. Population pressure H L Climate change pressure M ES Warm LS LS Atacama desert LL ES Andean altiplano HH Cold Dry LS NE Catinga Chaco HH HL M Dry Pampas HL ES Patagonian steppes HL Rain Forest HH M ES ES ES Sclerophylus forest HH Temperate forest HH sub antarctic Tundra LH Humid Figure 5. Relative situation of the main Latin American and Caribbean biomes, related climate change, human drivers and sensitivity. (H=high pressure, L=low pressure, LS=less sensitive, M=medium sensitive, ES=extreme sensitive) Agriculture Soil degradation is affecting productivity of agricultural lands and livelihood of population, ecosystems as well as natural plant cover and biodiversity. Land degradation is the result of a number of causes, as unsound agricultural practices, ecosystem fragility, human pressure and climate which is getting more hazardous. Land degradation is the first phase of a long chain of processes affecting the integrity of the ecosystems, ecosystem services and the capacity of the territory to sustain human activities. One example of this is the El Niño-La Niña phenomenon. During the El Niño phase, Pacific water warms 2 to 4 degrees bringing intensive precipitations in the Southern Cone (Peru, Chile, Argentina, Pacific and Atlantic coasts), while droughts affect Colombia, Venezuela, Mexico, North Eastern Brazil and the Amazon basin. The cold phase is associated with inverse effects. This phenomenon is a real threat for human settlements, being the main cause of floods and landslides. Periodic droughts create unfavourable conditions for investments in agriculture. This oceanic oscillation is probably the main driver for climatic variability in the continent, making precipitations highly hazardous, forcing farmers to make agriculture of low inputs in order to reduce economic risk. This leads to a marginal agriculture, associated with low yields and income, and consequently, social deterioration and very often, the primary cause of massive migrations. This has been the case of North Eastern Brazil, Northern Argentina, Northern Chile and Mexico (MA Secretariat, 2002; NRC, 2002). Land degradation is the end result of a long chain of processes having different beginnings (Pielke et al, 2007). The most common is social marginality and lack of economic and technological resources (Figure 6). Under these conditions, farmers, often small owners, tend to minimize cost using basic and aggressive techniques of soil cultivation, leading to soil erosion. A second cause has historically been mining. High energy requirements of metal foundry, stimulated deforestation of fragile ecosystems to provide mines with fuel wood and charcoal. The third cause was industrial agriculture that used high levels of fertilizers, pesticides and machinery. This combination leaded to the loss of organic matter, soil compaction and, after some years, a global decay in soil productivity. In all cases there was a combination of human pressure and climate aggressivity threatening important ecosystems. In tropical areas, sugar cane cultivation during the last three centuries and especially in the late 18th century, was the primary cause for forest cover removal to install unsustainable production systems. Much of this land had only shallow and fragile soils highly erosion prone due to the steepness of the slopes it occupied. Consequently it was observed a loss of significant amounts of topsoil from many areas, especially in the volcanic soils of Meso America. Although the worst affected areas are no longer in cultivation, the natural vegetation that has recolonised these areas is much poorer in species composition and biomass than the original vegetation Land use / Human activities Marginal lands good lands Poverty intensive agriculture Unsound practices due to lack of technology unsound practices due to the lack of environmental considerations. Plan cover removal and forest fires soil compaction salination chemical deterioration flooding slope cultivation overgrazing soil erosion decay of soil productivity AGRI DESERTI afforestation urbanization Figure 6. Paths to land degradation. Good lands with intensive agriculture and marginal lands with low input agriculture follow different path by the end results are similar. The Agri Deserti is a completely degraded land unsuitable for agriculture. In arid and semiarid parts of the continent, low and variable rainfall create a permanent water stress that produce poor stands of sparse vegetation, which provide ineffective protection to the soil from the erosive effects of rainfall and wind. The effect of climatic variations on crop productivity is difficult to predict due to the complexity of the cause effect relationships among plant ecophysiology and climate. In some case the effect of higher temperature is clearly negative, in some others, clearly positive. The balance of negative and positive impacts will determine the behavior of crops in new climatic scenarios. A rise of temperature in cold climates will be certainly positive, stimulating growth rate and biomass accumulation. If this phenomenon is accompanied of precipitation reduction, the negative effect of this will oppose to the positive change in temperature regime. The final result will depend on what of the two phenomenons will predominate over the other. In tropical regions, a rise of temperatures will create conditions for thermal stress being deleterious for crops. Simultaneously a higher CO2 content will allow plants to better support these stressing conditions, due to higher photosynthetic rate, which provide more carbohydrates to maintain higher respiration rates. What is expected in all climates is the fact that global warming will accelerate life cycles of pest and insects, increasing sanitary equilibrium of plants. Analogously, life cycle of plants will be accelerated reducing time for biomass accumulation. This will affect yields negatively. To neutralize this phenomenon cultivated areas should move to fresher climates when possible or change sowing dates looking for the lower temperatures during the year. Areas where these two possibilities are unlikely, agricultural yields will fatally drop. In hot tropical climates, temperature rise will force crop yield to decrease, by shortening the duration of crop growth cycle. Phenology will occur faster reducing the duration of phonological phases, consequently, production of fruits, grains and plant aerial organs will drop. In arid climates of the continent (NE Brazil, Northern Mexico, Peru and Chile, and Southern Argentina), this negative impact is reinforced by a decreasing annual rainfall. In humid tropical climates (Amazon basin, Northern Argentina and Meso America) the higher temperatures interact with a more aggressive and unstable precipitation pattern in the recent decades. Along the Central American-Caribbean watersheds, coffee and banana crops could be additionally stressed if climate change leads to increasing frequency of storms and heavy precipitation (Campos, et al 1997).Ozone depletion (WMO, 2003) also contribute, in the Southern part of the continent, to increase UV levels that impair the growth of some crop species due to its deleterious effect of auxines. One exemption is the vine, species that beneficiate from increased levels of UV, which increase the synthesis of flavonoids improving the quality of wine. Global warming also will create better conditions to extend the geographic distribution of insects and pests. Higher temperature accelerates reproduction, shortening the time to complete life cycle of insects and pathogenic agents (Porter et al., 1991). Changes in precipitation regime can increase sensitivity of hosts, reducing predator populations and competitors (Löpmeier, 1990; Parry et al., 1990; Parry et al 1991). There is some evidence of poleward expansion of pest and insect distribution ranges which can create new sanitary risk in temperate climate (Porter et al., 1991). This expansion is expected to continue affecting highlands and temperate agriculture. An example of this was the arrivals of late potato blight (Phytophthora infestans) in Central Chile in the early 1950 (Treharne, 1989). Figure 7 shows positive and negative effects of climatic warming. new areas for tropical fruits Positive effects Growing season extends Frost regime gets milder better conditions for pollinization in cold climate temperature rise New pest and diseases Milder winters chilling hours deficit negative effects reduction of temperature amplitude deteriorate quality for temperate crops High temperature stress Shorthening life cycle of pest and diseases Acceletation of phenology of crops, less biomasse Figure 7. Summary of positive and negative effects for crop species of temperature rise In extensive areas, farmers have limited financial resources and low input farming systems having little capacity to adapt to the new condition imposed by climate change. Adaptive capacity requires efficient irrigation and water management systems, highly technified management of pests and diseases, an strict control of climatic risks by managing early warning systems and information systems (GCOS, 2003), adaptation of genetic resources (to change crop seasonality and increase resistance to pest and diseases), highly technified management of pesticides and fertilizers (to prevent contamination of waters and foods). In some areas farmers will never be able to adapt to these conditions at the required speed. Marginal agricultural populations may suffer significant disruption and financial loss even facing relatively small changes in crop yield and productivity (Parry et al., 1988; Downing, 1992; GEF, 2006). Currently, prices of agricultural products are at the lower limit to support reductions on yields, so, farmers are in an extremely vulnerable condition. Due to higher prices of energy, pesticides and fertilizers, estimated net economic impacts of climate change on crops are negative for several Latin American countries analyzed by Reilly et al. (1994). Globally the continent will endure important climatic modifications all over its territory. Changes in South America, especially in coastal areas, could be moderated by the important mass of Oceans in the Southern Hemisphere. Despite this, important modification is expected in the behavior of climatic oscillation as El Niño-La Niña, which will continue to be a driver for climatic variability in almost all continental extension (Paeth et al, 2006). Isotherms and isohyets displacements are occurring faster than adaptation mechanisms of natural ecosystems; this could become a severe threat for important biomes of this continent, mainly in the Amazon basin and temperate rain forests. Modification of rainfall regimes, the retreat of ice bodies and increased rates of evaporation, could reduce runoff and available water in the next decades. Global warming will force important adaptation in agricultural systems, this include the better use of technology and a shift in crop seasonality. Only modern agriculture will adapt to these new conditions impacting severely small farmers which dominate in extensive areas of the continent. After analyzing these trends, some questions arise: Will we halt this tendency before a real crisis? how much will we pay to adapt to a new climate?, will we be able to adapt completely to new planetary situations?. These questions imply a real effort to restore the planet to his normal situation. Main Changes forced by global warming in Latin America and the Caribbean Glaciers and permafrost Soil Freshwater Water quality Climatic variability Upward displacement of at least 300 meters of lower border of Andean glaciers, decrease in the Antarctic Ice extent, retreat of the Patagonia glaciers, reduction of permafrost, reduction of solid precipitation and snow reserves in the Andes and high elevations. More intense storms could increase risk of soil erosion. Even in arid environments occasional intense storm could threaten bare soils. Increased runoff in winter reducing availability of water in spring and summer. Loss of capacity of hydrological regulation of the main river basins in the Andes Mountain based on snow reserves. Decreasing precipitation is reducing potential for rainfed agriculture in arid environments. As consequence of this, groundwater is being overused, increasing depth of water tables. Intensive storms are more frequent, causing more soil erosion and sediment transportation to rivers. Higher temperatures tend to reduce dissolved oxygen impairing aquatic organisms. Stalinization of river deltas due to the increase in sea level. Extreme climatic event are increasing its frequency, making life hazardous. This is affecting wildlife and agriculture. Some ecosystems from the Atacama Desert border are in ecological regression due to the increased climatic variability which magnifies human pressures. Drought, floods and landslides are affecting agriculture and human settlements. In some cases causing loss of human lives. In May 2000, the region of Buenos Aires, Argentina Rangelands Forests Biodiversity Soil Carbon reserves and organic mater Crop seasonality Human health supported the heaviest rains in 100 years, 342 mm fell in just 5 days. Similar phenomenon affected Venezuela in December 1999, causing massive landslides and flooding that killed approximately 30,000 people. Important areas of the continent support extensive cattle production, in some cases this activity represent un important export product (Uruguay and Argentina). These agricultural ecosystems are threatened by water and wind erosion due to increased climatic aggresivity. The continent holds one of the bigger world forest reserves. Tropical forest is threatened by a combined action of humans and climate. Tropical forest soils in the Amazon basin are very sensitive. After a slight deforestation, exposed soil start Global warming and changes in water regime are threatening important biodiversity of tropical rain forest (Amazon basin and Central America), Semiarid tropical steppes (Caatinga from the NE Brazil), Cold Steppes of the Andean highlands (mainly Peru, Bolivia, Argentina and Chile), Subdesertic and semiarid temperate Steppes in Mexico, Peru, Chile and Argentina, Humid temperate forest (evergreen and deciduous) in Chile and Argentina and Cold Patagonian Steppes. Primary factors of degradation of these biomes is soil desiccation and droughts, displacement of isotherms faster than species adaptation and frequent intense storms which degrades or saturate soils. Temperature increase also creates favorable conditions for new species of insects or diseases. Rising sea level is leading to saltwater inundation of coastal mangrove forests in Bermuda. Higher temperatures favorise organic mater degradation when soils are cultivated. This accelerates the loss of carbon from cultivated soils. This is the normal situation in tropical soils, which is shifting to temperate zones. Higher temperatures will be compensated with changes in crop seasonality. Sowing dates will move towards the coldest season to maintain yields. In Mediterranean climates this could help in a better use of winter rains, reducing water requirements. This paradox was already seen using simulation models in South America. 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