Unit 5 Chapter Normal Distribution Chapter 5 deals with the Normal Distribution which is a continuous distribution. This is probably the most important probability distribution. Graphs of Normal Probability Distribution Properties of a normal curve 1. The curve is bell-shaped with highest point over the mean µ. 2. The curve is symmetrical about a vertical line through µ. 3. The curve approaches the horizontal axis but never touches or crosses it. 4. The inflection (transition) points between cupping up and down occur at µ - σ and µ + σ. 5. The total area under the curve is 1. The mean µ and standard deviation σ control the shape of the normal curve. The curves on the right show examples of normal curves of different height. Empirical Rule. For a distribution that is symmetrical and bell-shaped 1. Approximately 68% of the data values will lie within one standard deviation on each side of the mean. 2. Approximately 95% of the data values will lie within two standard deviation on each side of the mean. 3. Approximately 99.7% of the data values will lie within three standard deviation on each side of the mean. Examples showing the empirical rule: 1. The mean value of equipment from an inventory sample is µ = $1500 with a standard deviation σ = $200. The data set is a normal distribution. Estimate the percent of the equipment whose values are between $1300 and $1700. The interval is 1500 – 200 and 1500 + 200 which translates to µ - 1σ and µ + 1σ. Using the empirical rule, 68% of the equipment falls in this interval. 2. Using µ = $1500 with a standard deviation σ = $200, between what 2 values does 95% of the values fall. From the rule this would be µ - 2σ and µ + 2σ. The calculations would be 1500 – 2(200) and 1500 + 2(200) or $1100 and $1900. Standard units and areas under the standard normal distribution. Since there are infinitely many normal distribution each with its own mean and standard deviation, a standard normal distribution with mean µ = 0 and standard deviation σ = 1 can be used to transform all the other distributions into a comparable format. The standard normal distributions use the variable z to represent the random variable. The other normal distributions may be denoted as x. Values on any normal distribution x can be transformed using the formula z x . This is usually referred to as a z-score or z value. Percents (areas under the curve) can be derived using the standard normal. Before working with the conversions for the x normal distribution, you must be able to work with the standard normal distribution table (Table in the appendix or the pull-out card) The table shows negative values which are to the left of the mean of 0. The other side of the table shows positive values which are to the right of the mean of 0. Partial negative table Partial positive table Examples using the normal table. (Remember the mean = 0 and cuts the graph in 2 equal sides. The area under the curve is 1 or 100%. Either side of the mean contains 50% or .5 of the area or probability. Area and probability are interchangeable for terminology.) Find the area as specified. Between -1.6 and 0 Calculations: z = -1.6 gives .0548 z=0 gives .5000 To the left of 1.25 (-5 is the same as ∞ for the normal) .5000 - .0548 = .4452 or 44.52% of the data falls between -1.6 and 0 Calculations: z = 1.25 give .8944 = 89.4% of the data falls below 1.25 Between -1.96 and 1.96 Calculations: z = -1.96 gives .025 z = 1.96 gives .975 .975 - .025 = .95 or 95% of the data falls between -1.96 and 1.96 From mean 0 to 1.52 Calculations: z = 1.52 gives .9357 which includes the area to the left of 0. So that half of the area need to be subtracted .9357 - .5000 = .4357 or 43.57% Calculations: z = 1.52 gives .9357 z = -1.23 gives .1093 .9357 - .1093 = .8264 0r 82.64% Calculations: z = 2.3 gives .9893 z = 1.2 gives .8849 .9893 - .8849 = .1044 or 10.44% Use the standard normal distribution and table to calculate probabilities from an x normal distribution. The fall deer population in Mesa Verda National Park is approximately normally distributed with mean µ = 4400 deer and standard deviation σ = 620 deer. Covert each of the following x intervals to z intervals and find the associated probability. a) x > 3300 z 3300 4400 1.77 (round to 2 decimals since 620 the normal table only gives 2 decimals. So z > -1.77 which would give a probability 1 - .0384 = .9616 or 96.16% of the dear population is above 3300. b) x < 5400 z 5400 4400 1.61 So z < 1.61 which would give 620 a probability of .9463 or 94.63 % of the populations are below 5400. c) 3500 < x < 5300 Both endpoints need to be converted. z 3500 4400 5300 4400 1.45 and z 1.45 . 620 620 So -1.45 < z < 1.45 which would convert to .9265 - .0735 = .853 or 85.3% of the deer populations are between 3500 and 5300. Areas under the Normal Curve Examples: 1. A survey of the height of US men was conducted. Heights are normally distributed with a mean µ = 69.6 and a standard deviation σ = 3.0. A study participant is selected randomly. a) Find the probability that his height is less than 66 inches. P(x < 6) = P ( z 66 69.6 ) = P(z < -1.2) = .1151 3 b) Find the probability that his height is between 66 and 72 inches. 72 69.6 66 69.6 z = 3 3 P( 66 < x < 72) = P P( -1.2 < z < .8) = .7881 - .1151= .673 c) Find the probability that his height is more than 72 inches. P(x > 72) = P z 72 69.6 = P(z > .8) = 1 - .7881 = .2119 3 2. The weight of adult cocker spaniel are normally distributed wit a mean µ = 25 lb and a standard deviations σ = 3 lb. Select a cocker randomly. a) Find the probability that the cocker’s weight is less than 23 lb. P( x < 23) = P z 23 25 = P(z < -.67) = .2514 2 b) Find the probability that the weight is between 20 lb and 27 lb. 27 25 20 25 z = 3 3 P( 20 < x < 27) = P P( -1.67 < z <.67) = .7486 - .0475 = .7011 c) Find the probability that the weight is more than 29 lb. P( x > 29) = P z 29 25 = P( z > 1.33) 3 = 1 - .9082 = .0918 d) If 50 cockers are randomly selected, about how many would you expect to weigh less than 22 lb. Find the percent first and then applies this to the number of cockers in the sample. P( x < 22) = P z 22 25 = P( z < -1) = .1587 3 50 (.1587) = 7.933 ≈ 8 cockers