Air Quality in New York City: A GIS Analysis of Vehicular Traffic Michael Horowitz CRP 408 Final Project May 5, 2008 Table of Contents Summary………………………………….. 1 Introduction………………………………. 2 Data and Methodology………………........ 3 Analysis……………………………………. 6 Conclusion………………………………… 8 Appendix A................................................... 11 Appendix B………………………………... 15 References and Data Sources……………. 23 Summary Modern urban environments have been attempting to manage the environmental problems created by decades of anthropogenic activities. Today, air quality in New York City is so poor that it is a direct threat to human and ecosystem health. This study utilizes GIS to examine correlations between vehicular traffic and concentrations of harmful gases and also provides mass estimates for nitrogen emitted due to vehicle exhaust. 1 Introduction Air pollution is one of the major causes of poor health in urban areas today. Anthropogenic activity since the industrial revolution has been degrading air quality in all populated places, but most notably in heavily developed metropolitan areas. Fossil fuel burning in vehicles, power plants, and other industrial processes generate significant amounts of air pollution. The four major boroughs of New York City have the highest vehicular traffic densities out of all counties in the United States (Lipfert et al., 2006). New York City also ranks among the lowest for annual air quality out of all the major metropolitan cities in the United States (American Lung Association, 2004). Furthermore, automobile traffic throughout the United States increased by nearly 10% between 1995 and 2001 (US DOT, 2006). If these trends persist, air quality in New York will continue to decline. Significant amounts of aerosols and particulate matter are produced by fossil fuel combustion. Increased levels of aerosols in the atmosphere have been linked to heart disease, lung cancer, and other lung conditions (Ross et al., 2007). Particulate matter smaller than 2.5 microns in size (PM-2.5) pass into the human respiratory system much more easily and are, thus, particularly harmful. Children and the elderly are especially sensitive to poor air quality, developing a myriad of conditions as a result. In turn, this creates an unnecessary burden on previously-strained healthcare systems. In an era of growth, the issue of air pollution must be tackled immediately before it becomes any worse. Nitrogen gases are also released into the atmosphere by the burning of fossil fuels. Large amounts of oxidized forms of nitrogen, such as NO2, are emitted in vehicle exhaust 2 and are eventually deposited on the landscape. Smaller amounts of reduced nitrogen, such as NH3, are also emitted by vehicle exhaust and deposited, but this has been poorly studied (Cape et al., 2004). These forms of nitrogen are readily absorbed by primary producers and can have adverse ecological effects in large amounts, such as the eutrophication of estuaries and the creation of hypoxic “dead zones” (Schlesinger, 1997). Furthermore, the spatial variability is too uncertain in current models that are used to predict atmospheric nitrogen deposition in smaller-scale urban areas. In order to better understand their interactions with vulnerable ecosystems, we must determine anthropogenic contributions of these important gases. It is the intent of this study to use GIS to examine traffic densities and road networks in New York City in relation to vehicular emissions and air quality. It will examine the spatial relationship, if any, between traffic volume and the mean annual atmospheric concentration of fine particulate matter (PM-2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). This study will also utilize GIS to estimate average daily emissions of ammonia (NH3) and NO2 within New York City due to vehicle exhaust. The findings will be valuable in determining the best management practices for planning the development of urban environments. Data and methods Data The following data was acquired for this project: New York State Zip Code Shapefiles 3 Source: New York State Office of Cyber Security and Critical Infrastructure Coordination NBPM Highway Network Description: New York Metropolitan road network shapefile with measured and modeled data Source: New York Metropolitan Transportation Council (NYMTC) 2002 Atmospheric Pollutant Monitor Data – New York State Source: Environmental Protection Agency AirData Data Preparation New York State Zip Codes were used to designate the boundaries of each New York City borough. Rather than using New York County boundaries derived from census data, which shows the boundaries of these counties extending into the water, Zip Code boundaries were used to more accurately reflect the physical boundaries of New York City. Postal code boundaries were dissolved so that only the county boundaries remained and the five counties of New York City (Bronx, New York, Kings, Queens, and Richmond) were exported into a final shapefile using the NAD 1983 UTM Zone 18N projection (NYC_Zips_Dissolve.shp). The NYMTC highway data was initially composed of many different shapefiles based on measured and modeled data. The measured data was created from traffic counts performed in 2002. This data was split into shapefiles for morning, mid-day (peak), evening, and night time periods. Additional highway data from NYMTC was available based on modeled projections of traffic for 2008 and 2030. Because projected air quality values are unavailable for these years, this traffic data was not used. In order to isolate 4 roadway data for New York City, the 2002 mid-day NYMTC highway data was clipped to the boundaries of New York City represented by the Zip Code shapefile described above. The method by which NYMTC conducts its traffic study dictates that not all roadways can feasibly be counted. Thus, “connectors” are created to link counted roads so that no traffic is lost between analysis zones. These connectors were, essentially, fake, and were deleted from the data. Deleted segments include those named “Centroid Connector” and “PTZ Connector.” The final shapefile (2002B_md_NYC_UTM.shp) was projected to NAD 1983 UTM Zone 18N (Appendix A, Map 1). Using the EPA’s AirData website, PM-2.5 air quality data for New York State in 2002 was downloaded in the form of a comma-delineated text file - an example of which can be found in Appendix A, Table 1. The most useful elements of this data are the site ID, latitude and longitude coordinates, and mean annual PM-2.5 concentration, though there are many more attributes included. Conserving all attributes, the monitoring sites in New York City were saved as a dBase IV file. These sites were then imported as XY data into ArcMap by means of their respective latitudes and longitudes (Appendix A, Map 2) and saved as a shapefile (PM25_NYC.shp). The same method was used to obtain NO2 data and prepare it for use in ArcMap (Appendix A, Map 3). Assumptions In order to simplify this analysis, it was assumed that daily peak flow occurring mid-day would accurately represent the daily traffic flow as a whole. The data that were received via personal correspondence from NYMTC were partially corrupted – the 2002B_am_nwk+assn.shp file would neither open nor allow access to its attribute data. As a result, this study interprets mid-day traffic flow as representative of total daily flow. 5 This study also assumed that vehicle exhaust deposits within 300m of the location from which it is emitted. This was crucial in making the spatial correlation between a site’s annual mean concentration of PM-2.5 and NO2 and the traffic flow within a certain distance. Previous studies have made similar assumptions (Ross et al., 2007). In calculating the amount of NO2 and NH3 emitted daily due to vehicle exhaust, this study made assumptions regarding the composition of traffic. Heavy trucks that run on diesel emit different proportions of these gases than do gasoline-fueled light vehicles. It was assumed that heavy trucks make up 10% of the traffic, while light vehicles make up the remaining 90%. Analysis In order to visualize the mean annual concentrations of PM-2.5 throughout New York City, a continuous dataset was created based on the mean annual PM-2.5 concentrations at each discrete monitoring station. This data was interpolated to a raster using the Inverse Distance Weighted method (IDW) with the Spatial Analyst toolkit. The concentrations were interpolated to the rectangular extent of the New York City boundaries with the units of µg / m3 (Appendix B, Map 1). According to the map, the highest annual concentrations are within New York and Bronx counties. The same method was applied to the data from NO2 monitoring stations; however, the NO2 dataset is much smaller and only allowed for a partial coverage of continuous interpolation (Appendix B, Map 2). The second step of this analysis was to create a 300 meter buffer around each monitoring station (Appendix B, Map 3) and clip all NYMTC roadways to this buffer and 6 create a new shapefile (NYC_roads_300_clip.shp). As part of the original NYMTC data, the field “TOT_FLOW” indicates the daily vehicular traffic flow based on peak mid-day traffic. Two new fields were added to this shapefile: “calc_lengt” and “flow_x_len”. Using the field calculator, the length of each clipped road segment was calculated in meters. Next, the total vehicle kilometers per segment was calculated by the following equation: [flow_x_len] = [TOT_FLOW] x [calc_lengt] / 1000. A summary report was created and its first page is included in Appendix B (Table 1). The above procedure was repeated for the 2002 NO2 data (Appendix B, Map 4; Table omitted). The clipped road segments (NYC_roads_300_clip.shp) were spatially joined to the buffer polygons within which each was contained – a process that added the essential information of the Site ID to each road segment. Site ID’s and vehicle kilometers traveled were culled from the NYC_roads_300_clip.dbf file and placed into a new Excel spreadsheet. Using a pivot table in Excel, the sum of vehicle kilometers for each Site ID was calculated (Appendix B, Table 2), which gives the mean daily peak traffic flow within 300 meters of each monitoring station. The mean annual concentrations of PM-2.5 (µg/m3) for each site were culled from the PM25_NYC.dbf table associated with the sites’ shapefile. Sites with more than one value for mean annual PM-2.5 were averaged (Appendix B, Table 3). A regression analysis was performed that correlated the mean annual concentration of PM-2.5 with daily peak vehicular traffic within 300m of each monitoring station and the results plotted (Appendix B, Figure 5). The vehicle kilometers within 300m of each NO2 monitoring station were also calculated (Appendix B, Table 4), as well as the annual mean NO2 concentration in parts per million (ppm) (Appendix B, Table 5). A regression between 7 the two variable for each site was plotted (R2 = 0.868) (Appendix B, Figure 6) using the same method as used for PM-2.5. In order to estimate the total daily vehicle emissions from New York City, the method to obtain “calc_lengt” and “flow_x_len” as described above was utilized for the entire 2002B_md_NYC_UTM.shp shapefile. After extracting the calculated values from the associated dBase file, a pivot table was used to calculate the total sum of vehiclekilometers for New York City – the subsequent calculations require that vehicle distance be in meters, so the conversion was duly made. Using the traffic composition assumptions made previously and emissions estimates determined by the US DOT and Emmenegger et al. (2004), the mass of nitrogen as NO2 and NH3 was calculated with Microsoft Excel (Appendix B, Table 6). Conclusions and Discussion According to the regression analysis performed, 34% of the variation in mean annual concentrations of PM-2.5 is explained by the daily peak vehicular traffic passing within 300m of each station. Although this may initially seem like a weak correlation, it is a significant finding which can be extrapolated beyond monitoring stations to roadways themselves. Based on this study, we can conclude that over one-third of the variation in PM-2.5 concentrations within 300m of roadways can be explained by the simple volume of daily traffic flow. According to the regression performed for NO2, 87% of the variation in NO2 concentrations can be explained by the variation in traffic volume within 300m of each station. Unfortunately, this cannot be concluded with confidence, as there are only five 8 data points (i.e., stations monitoring NO2). As a result, more monitoring of NO2 is needed to make this correlation. Using GIS to calculate road length and traffic volume in vehicle-kilometers has allowed for the estimation of total nitrogen emissions from vehicle exhaust in New York City. Nearly 17,000 metric tons of nitrogen are released daily, and over 6 million tons annually, in vehicle exhaust. These figures imply strong ecological implications and further study must be done to quantify and correlate their effects. Policy-makers should take note of these results in order to tighten emissions standards and mitigate environmental effects. Due the initial assumptions made, this study can be improved upon several ways. If daily total traffic flow is used to calculate vehicular traffic, a stronger correlation between traffic and average annual PM-2.5 and NO2 concentrations may present itself. Furthermore, vehicular traffic fluctuates throughout the day, depending on the time of day. A strong correlation might be made between vehicle exhaust and the two emission factors by comparing traffic and concentration data collected on an hourly timescale. The implications of this result are significant and can be easily enacted. By using traffic volume as an predictor of air quality, more traffic counts can be conducted to study air quality. Rather than use costly and technically intricate atmospheric sampling equipment, simple traffic studies can be conducted to help predict a region’s air quality trends. Furthermore, urban municipalities should focus on reducing traffic flow in order to mitigate air quality. By reducing peak daily congestion, cities have the potential to drastically improve their air quality by reducing the amount of pollutants emitted. 9 Appendix A: Base Maps Figure 1: Base map of New York City roadways included in NYMTC data. 10 Figure 2: US EPA PM-2.5 monitoring stations across New York City. 11 Figure 3: US EPA NO2 monitoring stations across New York City Table 1: Example AirData acquired from US EPA * US EPA - AirData Monitor Values Report - Criteria Air Pollutants * 6-May-2008 at 12:55:25 AM (USA Eastern time Tuesday zone) 12 * Geographic Area: New York * Pollutant: Particles < 2.5 micrometers diameter * Year: 2002 * * File Size : 46 Rows * File Format: CSV - Comma Separated Values * Field 1: # Obs (24-Hour PM2.5) * Field 2: 1st Max (24-Hour PM2.5) * Field 3: 2nd Max (24-Hour PM2.5) * Field 4: 3rd Max (24-Hour PM2.5) * Field 5: 4th Max (24-Hour PM2.5) * Field 6: 98th Pct (24-Hour PM2.5) * Field 7: # Exceed (24-Hour PM2.5) * Field 8: Annual Mean (PM2.5) * Field 9: Annual # Exceed (PM2.5) * Field 10: Site ID * Field 11: County * Field 12: Latitude (Degrees) * Field 13: Longitude (Degrees) 13 14 9 9 8 14 0 7.1 0 360010005 Albany Co 42.6424 -73.75453 29 42 34 27 26 42 0 12.6 0 360010005 Albany Co 42.6424 -73.75453 115 77 36 34 33 34 0 11.4 0 360010012 Albany Co 42.68069 -73.75689 120 78 38 37 35 37 0 15.9 1 360050080 Bronx Co 40.83608 -73.92021 122 80 35 34 33 34 0 14 0 360050083 Bronx Co 40.86586 -73.88075 118 78 40 37 37 37 0 15 0 360050110 Bronx Co 40.81616 -73.90207 350 80 53 48 45 43 0 14.5 0 360050110 Bronx Co 40.81616 -73.90207 110 47 41 39 39 39 0 11.8 0 360070009 42.10873 -75.88027 114 43 42 38 33 38 0 11.3 0 360130011 Broome Co Chautauqua Co 42.29073 -79.58658 120 62 32 31 31 31 0 11.2 0 360271004 Dutchess Co 41.69486 -73.91441 114 46 40 38 38 38 0 12.1 0 360290002 Erie Co 42.99292 -78.77142 117 50 47 43 40 43 0 13.7 0 360290005 Erie Co 42.87684 -78.80988 116 50 45 38 37 38 0 13.4 0 360291007 Erie Co 42.82728 -78.84989 305 41 40 35 35 31 0 6.9 0 360310003 Essex Co 44.39309 -73.85892 113 86 35 32 32 32 0 14.7 0 360470052 Kings Co 40.64154 -74.01835 119 81 40 32 31 32 0 13.8 0 360470076 Kings Co 40.67185 -73.97824 121 81 38 36 34 36 0 14.6 0 360470122 Kings Co 40.7198 -73.94788 102 32 32 26 23 26 0 10.3 0 360552002 Monroe Co 43.15838 -77.56458 115 42 36 31 31 36 0 11.1 0 360556001 Monroe Co 43.161 -77.60357 113 42 32 32 30 32 0 11.2 0 360556001 Monroe Co 43.161 -77.60357 120 81 39 32 32 32 0 11.9 0 360590008 Nassau Co 40.63102 -73.73388 119 79 38 32 30 32 0 11.8 0 360590012 Nassau Co 40.78909 -73.63648 120 77 39 34 31 34 0 11.8 0 360590013 Nassau Co 40.76078 -73.4906 122 80 41 38 36 38 0 16.7 1 360610056 New York Co 40.75917 -73.96651 122 79 40 39 36 39 0 16.4 1 360610056 New York Co 40.75917 -73.96651 113 83 43 39 34 39 0 16 1 360610062 New York Co 40.72052 -74.00409 120 78 37 36 36 36 0 14.7 0 360610079 New York Co 40.79937 -73.93334 113 82 41 38 36 38 0 16.2 1 360610128 New York Co 40.73003 -73.98446 107 45 38 34 28 34 0 11.8 0 360632008 Niagara Co 43.08216 -79.00099 116 59 44 40 38 40 0 12.5 0 360652001 Oneida Co 43.0994 -75.22519 13 110 44 39 39 35 39 0 11.6 0 360670019 Onondaga Co 43.04823 -76.16479 102 44 40 38 35 38 0 11 0 360670020 Onondaga Co 43.02014 -76.16075 106 52 45 40 39 45 0 11.5 0 360671015 Onondaga Co 43.05238 -76.0592 114 52 45 39 39 39 0 11.1 0 360671015 Onondaga Co 43.05238 -76.0592 115 71 32 32 31 32 0 11.5 0 360710002 Orange Co 41.49947 -74.00973 23 34 24 21 19 34 0 13.3 0 360810094 Queens Co 40.77798 -73.84318 23 34 24 20 19 34 0 13.3 0 360810094 Queens Co 40.77798 -73.84318 119 79 36 35 33 35 0 13.7 0 360810096 Queens Co 40.77039 -73.82841 329 76 51 47 44 39 0 13 0 360810124 Queens Co 40.7362 -73.82317 119 85 45 40 39 40 0 14.4 0 360850055 Richmond Co 40.63302 -74.13713 118 83 39 28 27 28 0 12.1 0 360850067 40.59733 -74.12619 88 59 43 42 31 43 0 9.9 0 360893001 44.67778 -74.94999 117 75 42 36 35 36 0 11.5 0 360930003 Richmond Co St. Lawrence Co Schenectady Co 42.79963 -73.94019 332 52 46 45 42 37 0 10.4 0 361010003 Steuben Co 42.09071 121 80 40 36 31 36 0 12 0 361030001 40.745833 121 77 33 33 33 33 0 12.3 0 361191002 Suffolk Co Westchester Co -77.21025 73.420278 40.93006 -73.76924 14 Appendix B: Analysis Figure 1: Spatial Analysis of annual mean PM-2.5 concentrations throughout New York City based on US EPA data, Inverse-Distance Weighted Interpolation. 15 Figure 2: Spatial Analysis of annual mean NO2 concentrations throughout New York City based on US EPA data, Inverse-Distance Weighted Interpolation. 16 Figure 3: A map designating different traffic flows throughout lower New York, western Queens, and northern Kings counties. Also shown are 300 meter buffers around PM-2.5 monitoring stations used to isolate nearby roadways. 17 Table 1: PM-2.5 300m buffer Vehicle-km summary report for each road segment, displaying calculated lengths in meters and vehicle meters per segment. 18 Figure 4: A map designating different traffic flows throughout eastern New York, western Queens, and northern Kings counties. Also shown are 300 meter buffers around NO2 monitoring stations used to isolate nearby roadways. 19 Table 2: Microsoft Excel pivot table used to calculate total vehicle-kilometers within 300m of each PM-2.5 site. Sum of flow_x_len SITE_ID 360050080 360050083 360050110 360470052 360470076 360470122 360610056 360610062 360610079 360610128 360810094 360810096 360810124 360850055 360850067 Grand Total Total 4780.443317 5505.21 1418.8 26553.04 3124.9 28469.28223 41717.66 20174.74 13135.85 11942.49 4569.82 727.3 2431 1568.67 3307.1 169426.3055 Table 3: Excel pivot table used to average annual mean PM-2.5 concentrations (µg/m3) for stations with more than one value. Average of YRLY_MEAN SITE_ID 360050080 360050083 360050110 360470052 360470076 360470122 360610056 360610062 360610079 360610128 360810094 360810096 360810124 360850055 360850067 Grand Total Total 15.9 14 14.75 14.7 13.8 14.6 16.55 16 14.7 16.2 13.3 13.7 13 14.4 12.1 14.57222222 20 Annual Mean PM-2.5 (ug/m3) Vehicular Traffic within 300m of PM-2.5 Stations 17 y = 6E-05x + 13.842 R2 = 0.3435 16 15 14 PM-2.5 13 Linear (PM-2.5) 12 11 10 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 Daily Peak Vehicle-km Figure 5: Regression analysis of vehicle-kilometers within 300m of each site and 2002 annual mean PM-2.5 concentration (R2 = 0.344). Sum of len_x_flw Site_ID 360050083 360050110 360610056 360810098 360810124 (blank) Grand Total Total 5505.21 709.4 20858.83 930.16 2431 30434.6 Table 4: Excel pivot table used to calculate total vehicle-kilometers within 300m of each NO2 monitoring station. Site_ID 360050083 360050110 360610056 360810098 360810124 Yrly_Mean 0.028 0.03 0.038 0.028 0.028 Table 5: Annual mean NO2 concentrations at each station in parts-per-million (ppm). 21 Annual Mean NO2 (ppm) Vehicular Traffic within 300m of NO2 Stations 0.04 0.035 y = 5E-07x + 0.0275 R2 = 0.8679 0.03 0.025 NO2 0.02 Linear (NO2) 0.015 0.01 0.005 0 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 Peak Daily Vehicle-km Figure 6: Regression analysis of vehicle-kilometers within 300m of NO2 stations and their 2002 annual mean NO2 concentrations. Daily Vehicle-meters g N from NOx per meter Tons N from NOx daily g N from NH3 per meter Tons N from NH3 daily Total Tons N daily Total Tons N Annually Heavy Trucks 2675660238 Light Vehicles 24080942138 Total 26756602376 3.953306131 0.226984084 Assume NOx = NO2 10577.70402 5465.990595 16043.69462 0.011529412 0.025529412 30.84878861 10608.55281 614.7722874 6080.762883 645.621076 16689.31569 3872121.776 2219478.452 6091600.229 Table 5: Calculations for total N by gaseous species emitted based on GIS calculated distances. 22 References American Lung Association (2004). “State of the air: 2004”. http://www.lungusa.org/site/pp.asp?c=dvLUK9O0E&b=50752. Accessed 29 Feb 2008. Cape, J.N. et al. (2004). “Concentrations of ammonia and nitrogen dioxide at roadside verges, and their contribution to nitrogen deposition.” Environmental Pollution, 132: 469-478. Emmenegger, L. et al. (2004). “Measurement of ammonia emissions using various techniques in a comparative tunnel study.” International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 22: 326-341. Lipfert, F.W. et al. (2006). “Traffic density as a surrogate measure of environmental exposures in studies of air pollution health effects.” Atmospheric Environment. 40: 154-169. Ross, Zev et al. (2007) “A land use regression for predicting fine particulate matter concentrations in the New York City region.” Atmospheric Envrionment, 41: 2255-2269. Schlesinger, William H. (1997). Biogeochemistry: An analysis of global change. Oxford, UK: Elsevier. 400. U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration (2006). “Highway Statistics 2006: National Household Travel Survey”. US DOT. http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policy/ohim/hs06/index.htm. Accessed 29 Feb 2008. U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration. (2001). Evaluating vehicle emissions inspection and maintenance programs. National Academy Press. http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/Environment/aqfactbk/page15.htm. Accessed 20 Apr 2008. Data Sources 2002 New York State PM-2.5 AirData [spreadsheet]. (2007). Environmental Protection Agency. http://www.epa.gov/air/data/geosel.html. Accessed 2 May 2008. NBPM Highway Network [shapefile, 2002B_md_nwk+assn.shp]. (2002). New York, NY: New York Metropolitan Transportation Council. Received 4 Apr 2008. NYS Zip Codes [shapefile]. (2007). Albany, NY: NYS Office of Cyber Security and Critical Infrastructure. http://www.nysgis.state.ny.us/gisdata/inventories/details.cfm?DSID=934. Accessed 29 Feb 2008. 23