EPA-UV-proposal-1.6_Tang

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Sensitivity of Surface Ultraviolet Radiation to Tropospheric Trace
Gas and Aerosol Distributions: An Integrated Modeling and
Observations Analysis
I. Objectives:
Human exposure to sunlight Ultraviolet (UV) is one of the important causes of skin cancers.
Previous studies (Jacobson, 1998; Dickerson et al., 1997; Barnard et al. 2003) and recent EPA
UV monitoring results (http://www.geecresearch.com/EPAUV.htm) indicate that the surface UV
values can be affected by many factors, including: stratospheric ozone; tropospheric ozone;
aerosols; clouds; and other UV absorptive trace gases, such as SO2 and NO2. However the
quantification of the effect of these factors remains a challenge, due in part to the difficulty of
separating the individual contributions within the highly coupled atmospheric system. Advances
in our ability to observe the atmospheric environment, including the network of surface UV
stations (http://www.arl.noaa.gov/research/programs/uv.html), satellite data on ozone and
aerosols, and comprehensive aircraft measurements (such as ICARTT experiment
http://www.al.noaa.gov/ICARTT/) are providing comprehensive data sets to help establish the
quantitative relationships between surface UV and affecting factors. However, these observations
by themselves do not provide complete spatial and temporal coverage, nor do they provide
process related information. Thus chemical transport models with radiative transfer modules are
needed to unravel the contributions of individual factors, and to provide the estimates of
complete spatial coverage, needed in health assessment studies.
In this study we propose to study how changes in tropospheric pollution affect surface UV
radiation levels. We will apply a regional-scale CTM with an on-line radiative transfer model to
assess the roles of pollution (ozone and particulate matter) relative to those due to clouds and
stratospheric ozone. We will evaluate these results using a comprehensive 4-dimensional
observational data for the summer of 2004, obtained by combining the ICARTT (International
Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation,
http://www.al.noaa.gov/ICARTT/) observations with those from surface monitoring sites and
satellites. A unique aspect of this work is that new chemical data assimilation techniques will be
used to optimally combine the observations with the model predictions, to constrain 4dimensional ozone and aerosol fields. These fields will then be used in the sensitivity studies. In
this manner we plan to show how the uncertainties in the sensitivity studies can be reduced when
observations and models are optimally combined. Figure 1 shows the scheme of the model
integration for this study. Details of the proposed study are presented below.
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Figure 1. Schematic diagram of the framework used in the proposed study. The study will
integrate surface, aircraft and satellite observations with predictions from the STEM
CTM.
II. Approach and Methodology:
Our analysis will focus on the evaluation of the relationships among surface UV, its influencing
factors, and their spatial and temporal variations. To accurately estimate the influence of air
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pollution on UV, we need to quantitatively identify the components of this influence. This will
be accomplished through the use of models and observations, and their integration. This study
will be applied to the continental USA.
1) Regional Chemical Transport Model:
To study the comprehensive influences of air pollution on UV, we will use the University of
Iowa’s STEM (Sulfur Transport and dEposition Model) model (Carmichael et al., 2003; Tang et
al., 2004a). This model employs the SAPRC-99 (Carter, 2000) gaseous mechanism, aerosol
thermodynamics module SCAPE II (Simulating Composition of Atmospheric Particles at
Equilibrium) (Kim et al, 1993a, b; Kim and Seinfeld, 1995), and a secondary organic aerosols
(SOA) module based on Griffin et al. (2002). The model also has an on-line scheme to calculate
aerosol optical depth coupled to the time-varied aerosol predictions. The radiative fluxes are
calculated using the NCAR Tropospheric Ultraviolet-Visible (TUV) radiation model (Madronich
and Flocke, 1999), which is a one-dimensional solver for actinic flux and photolysis frequencies.
It can consider the influence of aerosols and clouds on photolysis rates and UV fluxes. The online TUV module (non-simplified version) embedded in STEM uses the aerosol and clouds fields
predicted from the three-dimensional model, and provides real-time photolysis rates for
photochemistry calculations. The 3-D wavelength-resolved UV values are also produced from
the on-line TUV. By utilizing time-varied photolysis rates, the photochemical calculations in the
model includes the aerosol and cloud radiative influences, and also includes aerosol/chemical
effects that provide a feedback between photochemistry and aerosol optical properties (e.g.,
aerosol aging effects). This two-way interaction between the TUV and other modules in the
CTM form the integrated radiative effects of aerosols and gases. This modeling system provides
the framework to investigate effects of air pollution on UV fluxes.
The STEM model has been extensively evaluated against observations (Carmichael et al., 2003;
Tang et al, 2003; Tang et al 2004a). The model has also been used to evaluate trace gas and
aerosol effects on UV fluxes (He and Carmichael, 1999; He et al., 2000; Crist et al., 1994). More
recently the STEM model coupled with the TUV module has been successfully applied to UVrelated prediction, such as photolysis rates, which strongly depend on UV flux. Figure 2 shows
the STEM predicted and observed J[NO2] and J[O1D] for all TRACE-P flight measurements.
TRCAE-P (TRAansport & Chemical Evolution over the Pacific) was a NASA experiment
performed during spring, 2001, in western Pacific (Tang et al., 2003). This experiment provided
an environment with very high aerosol loadings of dust, sulfate and carbonaceous aerosol. The
differences between the NORMAL and NOAOD runs gives the influence of aerosols in the
presence of clouds, and the difference between the NOAOD and CLEARSKY simulations, gives
the effects of clouds. In the presence of clouds, photolysis rates or UV fluxes are decreased
significantly below ~1.5 km and enhanced throughout the troposphere. Depending on cloud
height and thickness, these enhancements of J-values due to cloud reflection can extend
throughout the troposphere. Asian outflow contains large amounts of all kinds of aerosols, and
usually contains a significant amount of BC, which is highly absorptive. The presence of these
absorptive aerosols tends to decrease J-values and UV fluxes in all altitudes. These influenced Jvalues could further affect related photochemical reactions, and result in the change of other
species, such as O3. Our study (Tang et al., 2003) showed that the integrated radiative influence
of aerosol on photochemical process could be higher than that of cloud, because aerosols tend to
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be co-emitted with the precursors and have a longer contact time with the polluted air masses,
though cloud’s immediate impact on UV flux and J-values are usually stronger than aerosol.
Observed
NORMAL
NOAOD
CLEARSKY
0.00016
J[O3=>O1D +O2] (1/s)
J[NO2=>O3P +NO] (1/s)
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
Observed
NORMAL
NOAOD
CLEARSKY
0.00012
8E-005
4E-005
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Local Time
14
16
18
20
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Local Time
Figure 2. Simulated and observed photolysis rates for all TRACE-P airborne
measurements. “NORMAL” is the simulation considering both cloud and aerosol
effects, and “NOAOD” is the simulation without aerosol influences, and
“CLEARSKY” is the simulation without either of these influences.
The prediction of aerosol distributions is difficult do to large uncertainties in the emissions of
primary particulate matter and wet removal processes, as well as complexities of secondary
aerosol formation mechanisms. From a radiative transfer perspective, information on the 4dimensional distribution of aerosol composition and size is needed, as these determine the
aerosol optical properties. Figure 3 shows the STEM predicted aerosol optical depth over North
America in summer 2004 during ICARTT field experiment. Our prediction agrees well with the
observation in the 3-D field. In most cases, the high values of aerosol extinction coefficient
appear at low altitude, but in some cases they can be lifted to high altitudes by convection or due
to long-range transport inflow. Our AOD predictions show that the aerosol loadings have
regional characteristics. For example, sulfate is a major contributor to elevated AOD, and the
effects of the sulfur emissions from the Ohio River Valley are clearly seen.
It should be noted that during the ICARTT period, STEM predictions were also compared to
surface O3 and PM (particle matter) levels from the EPA AirNow sites. An evaluation of the
ozone forecasts for our model along with 7 other CTMs has recently been published (McKeen et
al., 2005). An evaluation of the PM forecasts is currently on-going
(http://www.etl.noaa.gov/programs/2004/neaqs/verification/).
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Observed
Simulated
Altitude (m)
12000
8000
4000
0
1E-007
1E-006
1E-005
0.0001
0.001
Aerosol Extinction @550nm (/m)
Figure 3, STEM simulated mean AOD (upper panel), and observed and predicted aerosol
extinction coefficient (lower panel) along NASA DC-8 flight path (the paths are
shown in the upper panel) during ICARTT field experiment, July and August 2004
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2) Emission Data:
The standard EPA National Emission Inventory (NEI) will be utilized in this study. Aspects of
the inventory are being evaluated as part of the ICARTT analysis, and refinements are underway
(e.g., in relation to emissions from power plants). Such inventory changes will be incorporated
into the analysis. Biogenic emission will be generated with EPA BEIS model system
(http://www.epa.gov/asmdnerl/biogen.html) driven by meteorological prediction from mesoscale
meteorological model (MM5 or WRF).
3) Measurement Data:
The period of this study will be the summer of 2004. During this period an extensive field
experiment was conducted. The International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on
Transport and Transformation, (ICARTT, http://www.al.noaa.gov/ICARTT/), which was formed
by NASA and NOAA aircraft platforms, NOAA research vessel the Ronald H. Brown (RB),
satellites and surface pollutant measurements, produced a comprehensive data set of trace gases
and aerosols. The aircraft measurements covered nearly the whole continental USA with special
focus on Northeastern USA, from surface to the altitude about 12km above sea level. This data
set contains detailed information of the trace gas and aerosol distributions, along with photolysis
measurements. This data set will be used in this study, and it will be combined with additional
measurements.
a. Airborne Measurements.
Those airborne field observations provide a 4-dimensional data set that we will use to verify
model performance, and to establish observed relationships between air pollution and UV fluxes.
During the ICARTT period, the NASA DC-8, J-31 and NOAA WP-3 aircraft provided valuable
measurement of ozone, actinic flux and wavelength-resolved aerosol optical depth over North
America, with particular focus on Northeastern USA. LIDAR cross-section aerosol extinction
and O3 were also obtained, and they can be directly used to analyze the variation of UV fluxes
with respect to aerosol and ozone column amounts.
b. Ground Measurements.
We will also utilize ground-level UV measurements from the existing EPA UV network
(http://www.epa.gov/uvnet/) and other UV surface stations, such as
http://www.arl.noaa.gov/research/programs/uv.html. We will particularly focus on the UV
surface data for the summer of 2004, as other intensive observations are available for this period.
The UV data will be compared to model predicted UV fluxes. We will also use ozone and PM
data from the EPA surface AirNow sites. We will use these measurements to compare with the
CTM results to study the aerosol and ozone regional variations, and the variations connected
with special events, such as forest fire, and their seasonal and diurnal variability. The surface
data will be used to establish the correlation between surface and near-surface air pollution.
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c. Satellite data.
Satellite observations can give information on aerosol and gaseous species over a large-area. The
existing TOMS (http://toms.gsfc.nasa.gov/aerosols/aerosols.html), SeaWiFS
(http://seawifs.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEAWIFS/IMAGES/IMAGES.html), MODIS
(http://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/), and OMI (http://aura.gsfc.nasa.gov/instruments/omi/index.html)
provide aerosol optical depth and total ozone column information. We plan to use satellite
products from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on NASA EOS-Aura platform, to
constrain our model predicted O3, and MODIS aerosol optical depth data to constrain model
aerosol fields. We plan to test the methodology of using satellite data to drive model assimilation
and achieve better surface UV prediction, and to reduce the uncertainty in calculated air
pollution effects on UV.
4. Analysis Methods:
The effects of aerosols and ozone on UV fluxes will be studied for the time period of summer
2004. The model will first be evaluated using the observations to establish the quality of the
model predictions. The focus will be on those components that are directly related to the
pollution-UV relationships. The parameters of most interest are: ozone; aerosol composition and
size, aerosol extinction, cloud optical depth, and photolysis rates, such as J[O1D].
We will then identify specific periods of interest where we can evaluate the effects of individual
factors on UV fluxes. For example, during this period we had events that reflect the influence of
biomass plumes from the Alaskan fires, periods and regions where the aerosol was dominated by
sulfate aerosol, and others where the aerosol was dominated by carbonaceous aerosol,
periods/regions with high ozone and aerosols, others with cloud free conditions, and others with
cloudy conditions, etc. The observations and predictions during these periods will be compared
and analyzed to establish the relationships between pollution characteristics and UV.
We also plan to conduct model sensitivity studies, where specific factors are isolated. We plan to
examine the following topics through the model sensitivity studies (each change is with respect
to the base case which has all the processes included):




Effect of stratospheric ozone studied by removing the stratospheric component of ozone;
Effect of aerosol composition; specifically BC, SOA and sulfate, by removing each
individually;
Effects of clouds, by removing clouds from the analysis;
Effects of observational constraints of ozone and aerosols, by repeating simulations with
assimilation of ozone and AOD.
Through these sensitivity simulations we will theoretically identify the influences of air pollution
on UV under various situations and locations. We will also compare the result of these sensitivity
studies to results from analysis of the events/regions described above, to provide mechanistic
interpretations of the relationships. Figure 4 shows an example of the proposed sensitivity
studies. Shown are results where we remove the effects of all aerosols on the photolysis rate
J[O3O2+O1D] (which has a strong UV dependency). As shown the effect is significant over
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Tennessee, West Virginia and northeastern USA on July 25, 2004, with results differing by over
50%. Ozone concentrations themselves show a similar influence from the aerosol radiative
effect, but the region of maximum difference in ozone levels is concentrated downwind of New
York. During this event, the major AOD contributor was sulfate, and the AOD had the highest
values downwind of the major SO2 sources. It should be noted that there are important
interactions among UV flux, O3 and sulfate. The J[O3O2+O1D] is not only an indicator of UV
flux, but also an indicator of photochemical activity. In clean areas, high values of this photolysis
rate lead to O3 photolysis loss, but in polluted areas, it causes O3 photochemical formation. The
changes in O3 concentrations in turn, feed back influences to the UV fluxes, as O3 is a strong UV
absorptive gas. Sulfate also gets affected since the conversion from SO2 to sulfate is controlled
by OH concentration, and the reaction of O1D + H2O 2OH is the major source of atmospheric
OH. Sulfate levels in turn influence the UV flux. These complex interactions and their variability
under different situations are the issues we will analyze in this component of the study.
Figure 4. STEM simulated aerosol influence on J[O3O2+O1D] and O3 at 12CST, July 25,
2004
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Currently we have not evaluated directly the model performance for UV prediction for the
ICARTT period. But we have compared our predictions of J[O1D]. The results for the
measurements on board the DC-8 and WP-3 are shown in Figure 5. The model is able to capture
the observed features very accurately. This indicates that the variability due to aerosols, ozone,
and clouds captured in the observations, is also captured in the predicted values (as reflected in
the variability in the observed and modeled values). This provides a strong basis upon which to
build the analysis proposed in this study.
Figure 5. Simulated and Observed J[O3O2+O1D] for all ICART DC-8 and WP-3 flights
The effect of model resolution will also be explored using the nesting technique. Resolution
change can strongly affect the representation of point emission sources in the regional model,
and then further influence the pollutant concentrations and loadings. Our previous study (Tang et
al., 2004b) indicated that this change could very significant, especially near megacities or power
plants. Based on this high-resolution simulation and corresponding comparison, we can verify
the sensitivity of surface UV prediction to model resolution.
b. Data Assimilation Studies.
A unique aspect to be explored in this study is the effect of data assimilation on the estimated air
pollution effects on UV fluxes. The relationships between pollution and UV fluxes are
complicated and difficult to establish using models or measurements by themselves. For
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example, observed relationship between surface UV and ozone suffer from the lack of
information of the ozone vertical distribution. Models provide estimated vertical profiles, but
they can have significant errors. We have developed a capability to assimilate aerosol and ozone
distributions into our CTM. Our technique is based on the 4-dimensional variational method
(4dVar) (Chai et al., 2006). The data assimilation technique utilizes measured data to adjust the
model results, and constrain model results to the observation, in a manner that is consistent with
the physics and chemistry represented in the model. For instance, we can use aircraft in-situ
concentration measurement to produce a reanalysis state that yields 4-D concentrations or optical
properties of aerosol and absorptive gas from the model that is self consistent with the
observations and the model predictions. Through this approach, it is expected that we can get
more accurate estimation of the influence of air pollution on surface UV. With the data
assimilation tool, we can also build adjoint influencing function in the model to investigate the
sensitivity of UV fluxes with respect to ozone and aerosol components. The data assimilation
technique can constrain model results through initial condition, lateral boundary condition, and
emissions. These assimilation studies will also provide valuable information regarding which
type of measurements provide the most information in terms of constraining the relationships
between pollution and UV fluxes (e.g., how important is the vertical information versus
expanded spatial coverage?).
The observation data to be studied includes aircraft in-situ measurement, satellite data (pollutant
column loadings and aerosol optical properties), ozonesonde, and surface concentrations and UV
measurements. Figure 6 shows an example of data assimilation for ozone on July 20, 2004. The
model predictions without data assimilation (w/oDA) show that the calculated vertical
distributions of ozone are much lower than those observed by the ozonsonde data. Thus the
tropospheric column is significantly underestimated. After data assimilation of the aircraft and
ozonesonde data, the model 4-d fields much better represent the observations. The data
assimilation framework also facilitates the assimilation of diverse types of measurements. For
example the surface data from AirNow is also being assimilated into our ozone predictions. The
improved 4-dimensional distributions of O3 should lead to improved estimates of UV fluxes,
since O3 is an important UV absorptive gas. We plan to use these reanalysis fields in our studies;
for example we will compare the relationships between ozone and UV calculated with the
constrained distributions to those established without assimilation. We also use data assimilation
to improve prediction of aerosol optical depth. Shown in Figure 7 are sample results of changes
in aerosol distributions after assimilation of MODIS-derived AOD, for an on-going study of
aerosols over Asia. We plan to apply this technique to the ICARTT period for this study.
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WP-3 flight on July 20, 2004
Ozonesonde observations
(Rhode Island and NOAA
ship Ron Brown in Golf of
Maine)
Figure 6. STEM simulation and assimilation of aircraft and ozonesonde data
(upper panels) and assimilation of AirNow surface ozone (lower panels) for
July 20, 2004.
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Figure 7. Effect of assimilation on predicted aerosol distributions.
c. Application to Surface UV Prediction and Evaluation
One important application of this study is applying our result to surface UV prediction. Our
intensive study will be focused on ICARTT period, summer 2004, but this application study will
be extended to other periods using EPA AirNow and surface UV observation. We plan to test our
results gotten from the intensive study, and use this research model system to evaluate influence
of air pollution over certain locations, such as polluted area like Chicago, and relatively clean
area like Hawaii, where routine UV observation is under operation. This model UV predictions
with and with out pollutant loadings will be compared to UV surface stations over North
America for typical seasons. The influence of pollutants on local UV will be evaluated and
regional characteristics of UV sensitivity to pollutants under difference scenarios will be
revealed.
III. Expected Results:
This study will produce an improved understanding of the relationships between air pollution
and surface UV over USA, and how these effects vary temporally and spatially. The interactions
among UV, absorbing gases, aerosols and clouds forms the 4-dimensional system that
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determines our research target; i.e., surface UV exposure. The observations during the summer
of 2004 from the ICARTT experiment, when combined with surface and satellite observations,
provide perhaps the most comprehensive 4-dimensional data set to explore the effects of air
pollution on UV. The analysis of this data will yield new observation-based relationships.
Another important result of this study will be a rigorous evaluation of the predictive skill of
current CTM with on-line UV calculations. The comprehensive data set will allow the evaluation
of the main components of the CTM-UV flux modeling system, and biases will be identified.
The identification of errors and biases will lead to improved CTMs.
A key output of this study will be the application of new data assimilation techniques to improve
our ability to model UV fluxes. This is important in reducing the uncertainty in model-derived
air pollution effects on UV. It also is important in an operational setting, as the data assimilation
techniques can be used to increase the forecast of air quality and UV fluxes. These techniques
can also help to improve satellite retrievals.
The results of this study will be summarized in a series of research publications.
IV. Work Plan:
This research will be conducted by Professor Gregory R. Carmichael and Assistant Research
Scientist Dr. Youhua Tang at the University of Iowa. They have extensive experience in air
quality modeling, observational interpretation and integration. The modeling tools are well suited
for the study proposed and the data assimilation capability is unique to them. They were actively
involved in the ICARTT study and their model is being extensively compared with the
observations. This study related to UV flux is a new activity, but will benefit from their previous
work. The modeling tools are in place, and only the modification of the model to output UV
fluxes in addition to photolysis rates is needed.
This is planned as a 2-year study. Year-1 will focus on the analysis of the ICARTT observations
and model predictions with the focus on model performance evaluation, on identification of
events and regions with specific influencing factors, and the comparison of relationships between
UV and air pollution levels for these events/regions. Model sensitivity studies will be simulated.
Year-2 will focus on more detailed analysis and the impact of assimilated ozone and aerosol
distributions on the estimated UV flux relationships. Papers summarizes the results of this study
will be submitted.
The research will be conducted at the University of Iowa Center for Global and Regional
Environmental Research (CGRER), where the computing infrastructure will be utilized.
V. Quality Assurance Statement
The Quality Assurance aspects of this work will be the responsibility of Professor Carmichael.
The activities of this project will involve data analysis and modeling analysis. The observational
data utilized in this project come from the ICARTT field experiment. The aircraft observations
all have undergone extensive QA/QC before being submitted to the data base. The EPA surface
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data utilized has also been processed with rigorous QA/QC. Data screening techniques, including
plotting are used to insure data formats and units are correctly implemented. As we will not be
doing any new observations sample handling or calibration. We also will not be using any
analytical instruments. This study will relay heavily of the use of our CTM computer model. The
QA/QC of this model is based on more than 20 years of development and application. The
underlying bases of the QA/QC have been established by the evaluation of each module against
benchmark problems, with results published in the peer reviewed literature. The overall model
evaluation is evaluated against observational data (see the most recent evaluation, Carmichael et
al., 2003). We also cross check the code and extensively compare our results with observations,
as we have several groups at different Universities using the code and running on different
computing systems. Again test problems are conducted and results compared. For model
sensitivity runs, details recording of the design of the sensitivity study and the run files will be
kept, and reviewed. The success of the project will be based on the publication of the results in
peer reviewed journals.
VI. References:
Barnard, W. F., V. K. Saxena, B. N. Wenny, J. J. DeLuisi, 2003, Daily surface UV exposure and
its relationship to surface pollutant measurements, J. Air & Waste Manage., 53, 237-245.
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B. Lefer, R. E. Shetter, D. R. Blake, A. Fried, E. Apel, F. Eisele, C. Cantrell, M. A.
Avery, J. D. Barrick, G.W. Sachse, W. L. Brune, S. T. Sandholm, Y. Kondo, H. B. Singh,
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Table of Contents
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ABSTRACT
1. Research Category and Sorting Code: Enter the full name of the solicitation to which your application
is submitted and use the correct code that corresponds to the appropriate RFA topic. (Be sure to
substitute the appropriate letter and number for the "XX" in 2003-STAR-XX).
EPA-G2006-STAR-D1, Implications Of Tropospheric Air Pollution for Surface UV Exposures
2. Title: Sensitivity of Surface Ultraviolet Radiation to Tropospheric Trace Gas and Aerosol
Distributions: An Integrated Modeling and Observations Analysis
3. Investigators: Start with the Principal Investigator. Also list the names and affiliations of each major
co-investigator who will significantly contribute to the project. Provide a website url and/or email contact
address for additional information
4. Institution: List the name and city/state of each participating university or other applicant institution, in
the same order as the list of investigators.
5. Project Period: June 1, 2006 to June 1, 2008
6. Project Cost: Provide the total request to EPA for the entire project period.
7. Project Summary:
(a) Objectives: To study how changes in tropospheric pollution affect surface UV radiation
levels.
(b) Approach: A regional-scale CTM with an on-line radiative transfer model will be used to
assess the roles of pollution (ozone and particulate matter) relative to those due to clouds and
stratospheric ozone. We will evaluate these results using a comprehensive 4-dimensional
observational data for the summer of 2004 integrate the ICARTT (International Consortium for
Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation, http://www.al.noaa.gov/ICARTT/)
observations with those from surface monitoring sites and satellites. A unique aspect of this work
is that new chemical data assimilation techniques will be used to optimally combine the
observations with the model predictions, to constrain 4-dimensional ozone and aerosol fields.
These fields will then be used in the sensitivity studies. In this manner we plan to show how the
uncertainties in the sensitivity studies can be reduced when observations and models are
optimally combined.
(c) Expected Results: This study will produce an improved understanding of the relationships
between air pollution and surface UV over the continental USA, and how these effects vary
temporally and spatially. An important result of this study will be a rigorous evaluation of the
predictive skill of current CTM with on-line UV calculations. The comprehensive data set will
allow the evaluation of the main components of the CTM-UV flux modeling system. The
identification of errors and biases will lead to improved CTMs and improved capability to
predict UV surface fluxes. Another key output of this study will be the application of new data
assimilation techniques to improve our ability to model UV fluxes. This is important in reducing
the uncertainty in model-derived air pollution effects on UV. As a result of this study the
capability to predict UV fluxes will be improved and this will lead to improved estimates of
human exposure to UV fluxes.
8. Supplemental Keywords: ambient
air, atmosphere, aerosol, ozone, tropospheric chemical
transport, UV radiation
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