DATE: July 31, 2006
1. EPA Grant Number: GAD No. 832417-010
2. Title: Johns Hopkins Particulate Matter Research Center
3. Project Title: Estimation of the Risks to Human Health of PM and PM components
4. Investigators: Faculty of The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health:
Francesca Dominici, Ph.D. Associate Professor, Biostatistics (fdominic@jhsph.edu)
Roger D. Peng, Ph.D. Assistant Professor, Biostatistics (rpeng@jhsph.edu)
Jonathan M. Samet, M.D., M.S., Professor and Chairman, Epidemiology (jsamet@jhsph.edu)
Scott L. Zeger, Ph.D., Professor and Chairman, Biostatistics (szeger@jhsph.edu)
Others:
Michelle Bell, Ph.D., Assistant Professor, Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies
(michelle.bell@yale.edu)
5. Institutions:
Johns Hopkins University
Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies
Bloomberg School of Public Health 205 Prospect Street
615 N. Wolfe Street
New Haven, CT 06511
Baltimore, MD 21205
6. Research Category:
7. Project Period: October 1, 2005 to September 30, 2006
8. Objectives and Future activities:
OBJECTIVES OF RESEARCH
In this project we will develop and apply statistical methods to national data sources to: 1) carry
out multi-site time series studies for estimating short-term effects of PM and PM components on
mortality and morbidity (Phase I); 2) carry out cohort-studies for estimating long-term effects of
PM and PM components in susceptible populations (Phase II); and 3) assess coherence of
evidence from bioassays and epidemiological studies on PM toxicity and susceptibility; and
explore linkages of sources of harmful PM components to human health risks. (Phase III).
By providing individual-level health data for the entire US population of elderly, the National
Medicare Cohort will allow us to take full advantage of all existing and future air quality
databases on PM and its characteristics. This project will address the following objectives of the
Center on a national scale: 1) mapping risks of PM and PM constituents to human health across
the United States; 2) using the maps to identify a sampling frame of locations with contrasting
higher and lower risks; 3) carrying out more refined epidemiological studies to estimate further
the risks of the more toxic particles to susceptible individuals.
PROGRESS SUMMARY/ACCOMPLISHMENTS
The progress of Project 1 entitled “Estimation of the Risk to Human Health of PM and PM
components” is summarized below.
PHASE I: Multi-site time series studies for estimating short-term effects of PM and PM
components on mortality and hospitalization
Progress toward Phase I includes:
1) Updating Medicare billing claims, weather and air pollution data sources to the year
2005;
2) Characterizing spatial and temporal variability of PM2.5, PM2.5 components, across the
US. The manuscript entitled: Spatial and Temporal Variation in PM2.5 Chemical
Composition in the United States for Health Effects Studies (2000-2005) led by Dr Bell is
close to submission;
3) Applying statistical methods for multi-site time series studies for estimating short-term
effects of PM2.5 on hospitalization from the National Medicare Cohort. The manuscript
entitled Particles Air Pollution Fine Particulates Air Pollution and Hospital Admission
for Cardiovascular and Respiratory Diseases”, led by Dr Dominici has been published in
the Journal of the American Medical Association, March 8, 295:1127-1135.
4) Developing statistical methods for multi-site time series studies to investigate whether
short-term effects of PM10 (and PM2.5) on mortality are decreasing over time. The
manuscript entitled An Update on the NMMAPS Associations Between Particulate Matter
and Mortality (1987-2000): Toward a Methodology for Accountability, led by Dr
Dominici has been submitted to Epidemiology;
5) Developing several methodologies for estimating short-term effects of PM 2.5 chemical
components.
PHASE II: Cohort studies based on the National Medicare Cohort for estimating longer-term
effects of PM and PM composition in susceptible populations and for cause-specific health
outcomes
Progress toward Phase II includes:
1) Developing statistical methods for cohort studies for estimating whether long-term trends
PM 2.5 levels are associated with long-term trends in mortality rates. The manuscript
entitled: Trends in Particulate Matter and Mortality in 113 U.S.Counties, 2000-2002:
Evidence on the Long Term Effects of Air Pollution, led by Dr Janes has been submitted
to Epidemiology.
2) Carrying our cohort studies for estimating the long-term effects of PM2.5 on mortality,
adjusted by spatial confounding. The manuscript entitled Mortality in the Medicare
Population and Chronic Exposure to Fine Particulate Air Pollution led by Dr Zeger is in
process of being submitted.
3) Carrying out Re-analyses of the American Cancer Society Study and of the Six Cities
Harvard Study by using the Medicare data. The manuscript entitled Re-analysis of the
American Cancer Society Study by use of Medicare data (2000-2002) is in process of
being submitted.
PUBLICATIONS/PRESENTATIONS
JOURNAL ARTICLES
Peng R. Dominici F Louis T. (2006) Model Choice in Multi-Site Time Series Studies of Air
Pollution and Mortality, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 169, Part 2:179-203.
Dominici F Peng D. Bell M. Pham M. McDermott A. Zeger S.L. Samet J.M. (2006) Fine
Particulates Air Pollution and Hospital Admission for Cardiovascular and Respiratory Diseases,
Journal of the American Medical Association, March 8, 295:1127-1135.
Bell M, Peng R, Dominici F (2006) The Exposure-Response Curve for Ozone and Risk of
Mortality and the Adequacy of Current Ozone Regulations, Environmental Health Perspectives,
114: 532-536.
Peng R, Dominici F, Zeger SL (2006) Reproducible Epidemiological Research, American
Journal of Epidemiology, 163: 783-789.
Symons JM, Wang L, Guallar E, Howell E, Dominici F, Schwab M, Ange BA, Samet JM,
Ondov J, Harrison D, Geyh A (2006) A Case-Crossover Study of Fine Particulate Matter Air
Pollution and Congestive Heart Failure Hospitalization, American Journal of Epidemiology (to
appear with discussion).
Welty L, Zeger SL, Dominici F. Bayesian Distributed Lag Models: Estimating Effects of
Particulate Matter Air Pollution on Daily Mortality, Biometrics (under revision).
Janes H, Dominici F, Zeger SL. Trends in Particulate Matter and Mortality in 113 U.S.Counties,
2000-2002: Evidence on the Long Term Effects of Air Pollution. Submitted to Epidemiology.
Dominici F, Peng RD, Zeger SL, Samet JM, White R H. An Update on the NMMAPS
Associations Between Particulate Matter and Mortality (1987-2000): Toward a Methodology for
Accountability. Submitted to Epidemiology.
Bell M. Dominici F. Effects Modification by Community Characteristics on the Short-Term
Effects of Ozone on Mortality in 98 U.S. Communities. Submitted to American Journal of
Epidemiology.
Bell M. Dominici F. Ebisu K. Zeger S.L. Samet J.M. Spatial and Temporal Variation in PM2.5
Chemical Composition in the United States for Health Effects Studies (2000-2005). Submitted to
Environmental Health Perspectives.
PRESENTATIONS
The American Thoracic Society International Annual Meeting, May 2006, San Diego CA, “ Fine
Particulate Air Pollution and Hospital Admissions for Cardiovascular and Respiratory Diseases.”
The Air and Waste Management Association Annual Meeting, June 2006, New Orleans TN, “
The Shape of the Exposure Response Curve in PM and Mortality”
Supplemental Keywords
time series, susceptible populations, risk estimates
Relevant web sites: None