Chapter 19 Homework Solutions 1. Suppose the money supply M has been growing at 10% per year and nominal GDP PY has been growing at 20% per year. The data are as follows: M PY 2004 100 1000 2005 110 1200 2006 121 1440 Calculate the velocity in each year. At what rate is the velocity growing? Use the quantity theory of money identity: M*V = P*Y V = PY/M 2004: V = 1000/100 = 10 2005: V = 1200/110 = 10.91 2006: V = 1440/121 = 11.9 Growth rate in V is approximately 9.1% per year. 2. Calculate what happens to nominal GDP if velocity remains constant at 5 and the money supply increases from $200 billion to $300 billion. PY = M*V Before: After: PY = $200 billion * 5 = $1 trillion PY = $300 billion * 5 = $1.5 trillion 3. Calculate what happens to nominal GDP if the money supply grows by 20%, but velocity declines by 30%? M*V = P*Y %ΔPY = %ΔM + %ΔV = 20% - 30% = -10% A 20% increase in the money supply plus a 30% decrease in velocity will decrease nominal GDP by 10%. 4. If credit cards were made illegal by congressional legislation, what would happen to velocity? Without credit cards, there would be increased demand for money since people would have to hold more money to carry out the same amount of transactions. V = PY/M When M increases, V must fall. Banning credit cards would reduce the velocity of money. 5. If velocity and aggregate output are reasonably constant (as the classical economists believed), what happens to the price level when the money supply increases from $1 trillion to $4 trillion? Again using the quantity equation, we have M*V=P*Y. Assuming constancy in both V and in Y, then any increase in M will be met by a proportionate increase in price. In this example, the money supply increases by 300%. If both V and Y are constants, then P must also increase by 300% to restore full employment output. 9. In Keynes’ analysis of the speculative demand for money, what will happen to money demand if people suddenly decide that the normal level of the interest rate has declined? If people believe that the “normal” level of the interest rate has fallen, then they believe that current interest rates are above normal. Therefore, they expect that interest rates will fall in the future, prompting them to buy more bonds today. The demand for money falls as people shift their wealth into bonds. 11. If interest rates on bonds go to zero, what does the Baumol-Tobin analysis suggest Grant Smith’s average holdings of money should be? Since bonds pay no interest, but do incur transactions costs (e.g. brokerage fees), Grant should not hold any bonds. Thus, Grant will hold his entire income as money, which according to the analysis presented suggests that his average cash balance will be equal to half his income. 12. If brokerage fees go to zero, what does the Baumol-Tobin analysis suggest Grant Smith’s average holdings of money should be? Since bonds are now costless to hold and pay a higher return than money, Grant should hold just enough money to make his purchases and no more. In other words, Grant should always hold bonds and only convert bonds into money to make his purchases. Grant never holds any cash balances (bonds are instantly converted to consumption), so average cash balances equal zero. 13. “In Tobin’s analysis of the speculative demand for money, people will hold both money and bonds, even if bonds are expected to earn a positive return.” Is this statement true, false, or uncertain? Tobin argued that people care about both the return and the risk of the assets they hold. Since bonds are generally considered to be riskier than money, people will still choose to hold money for diversification purposes. 14. Both Keynes’ and Freidman’s theories of the demand for money suggest that as the relative expected return on money falls, demand for it will fall. Why does Friedman think that money demand is unaffected by changes in interest rates? Why did Keynes think that money demand is affected by changes in interest rates? Keynes proposed that people held money to make transactions, in case a sudden need for liquidity arose, and for speculation. In each of these cases, the demand for money is inversely related to interest rates. As interest rates rise, the opportunity cost of holding money increases as well. Friedman does not disagree with Keynes’ analysis behind the motivation to hold money, but argues that what we need to consider are excess returns. The opportunity cost of holding money only increases if the return on bonds (or equities or goods) goes up relative to the return on money. Friedman argued that excess returns were constant since all interest rates tend to move in the same direction. Thus, an increase in the return on bonds would be met by an increase in the return on money and there would be no additional incentive to hold bonds over money.