Torbay
National CENSUS 2011
Overview of published data for Torbay
July 2012
1
CONTENTS
KEY FINDINGS……………………………...…..………..…………………………………3
1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 4
2. TORBAY CENSUS - population ........................................................................... 5
3. TORBAY CENSUS – comparisons to 2001 Census ............................................ 7
4. TORBAY CENSUS – comparisons to ONS Mid-Year estimates 2010…...……..10
5. QUALITY ASSURANCE PACK……………………………………………………..11
6. RESPONSE RATES…………………………………...……………………….….…14
7. TORBAY CENSUS – additional data………………………….…………………….15
8. TORBAY CENSUS – Regional Neighbours……………..…………………..……..17
2
KEY FINDINGS
England & Wales






On census day the population in England and Wales was 56.1 million, 53.0
million in England and 3.1 million in Wales.
The population of England and Wales grew by 3.7 million in the 10 years
since the last census, rising from 52.4 million in 2001, an increase of 7.1 per
cent. This was the largest growth in the population in England and Wales in
any 10-year period since census taking began, in 1801.
The median age of the population in England and Wales was 39. For men, the
median age was 38 and for women it was 40. In 1911, the median age was
25.
The percentage of the population aged 65 and over was the highest seen in
any census at 16.4 per cent, that is one in six people in the population was 65
and over.
There were 430,000 residents aged 90 and over in 2011 compared with
340,000 in 2001 and 13,000 in 1911.
In 2011, there were 3.5 million children under five in England and Wales,
406,000 more than in 2001.
Torbay & South West






On census day the population in Torbay was 131,000 and 5,288,900 in the
South West.
The population of Torbay grew by 1,298 people in the 10 years since the last
census, rising from 129,702 in 2001, an increase of 1.0 per cent.
The South West population went from 4.9 million in 2001 to 5.3 million in 2011
an increase of 360,000 or 7%.
The percentage of the population aged 65 and over is much higher than the
national figure of 16.3%, at 23.6% for Torbay and 19.6% in the South West.
There were 1,900 residents aged 90 and over in 2011 in Torbay and 53,800 in
the South West compared with 1,829 and 41,679 in 2001.
In 2011, there were 6,700 children under five in Torbay, 296,100 in the South
West, this is a 6.7% & 9.7% increase respectively since 2001.
Note: All figures are taken from the ONS initial download which is published in 5 year
age groups and subject to rounding. The overall Torbay population is taken from the
Usual resident Population by 5 year age group publication. Unrounded census data
will be published in future releases.
3
1. INTRODUCTION
The census is a count of all people and households in the country. It provides population
statistics from a national to neighbourhood level for government, local authorities, business and
communities.
Every ten years since 1801 the nation has set aside one day for the census. It is the most
complete source of information about the population that we have. The last census was held in
2001 and the latest census was held on Sunday 27 March 2011 nationally around 25 million
households received a questionnaire in the post to complete. This census was the first to
provide the facilities to submit the questionnaire online.
Every effort is made to include everyone, and that is why the census is so important. It is the
only survey which provides a detailed picture of the entire population, and is unique because it
covers everyone at the same time and asks the same core questions everywhere. This makes it
easy to compare different parts of the country.
The information the census provides allows central and local government, health authorities and
many other organisations to target their resources more effectively and to plan housing,
education, health and transport services for years to come.
The 2011 Census achieved its overall target response rate of 94 per cent of the usually resident
population of England and Wales, and over 80 per cent in all local and unitary authorities.
Despite the response rate achieved inevitably some people were missed. The
population estimate for England and Wales is estimated with 95 per cent confidence.
ONS therefore uses complex statistical techniques to adjust the census counts for those people
missed by the census.
Statistics from the 2011 Census will be released in 4 stages over the next 18 months. More
information can be found in the 2011 Census Prospectus
The statistics in this first release will be used as a base for the 2011 mid-year population
estimates. The mid-year population estimates are for the population at 30 June each year. The
2011, census based, mid-year population estimates are scheduled for release in September
2012. In due course the mid-year population estimates for 2002-2010 will be re-based using
what we now know from the 2011 Census; the re-based national level mid-year population
estimates will be published by the end of 2012 and sub-national estimates will be released in
spring 2013.
Full details can be found at http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/census/2011/index.html
4
2 TORBAY CENSUS - population
According to the 2011 Census Torbay is home to approximately 131,000 people, 63,100 males
and 67,800 females (rounded). This is an actual increase of approximately 1,298 people, or 1%,
over the previous Census in 2001. This compares to an approximate 7% increase in the South
West and England between 2001 and 2011.
Torbay’s population is still very much dominated by a higher proportion of older people; this is
demonstrated in the population pyramid below, figure 1. The solid bars represent Torbay’s
resident population and the hollow bars represent the population structure for England.
Figure 1: Torbay Population Pyramid 2011
Population Pyramid for Torbay compared to England
2011 Census
90+
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
5%
4%
3%
2%
England
1%
0%
1%
Females
2%
3%
4%
5%
Males
Between the 0-4 and the 40-44 age bands Torbays population is consistently below national
population figures for England and from bands 50-54 to 90+ they are consistently higher than
national figures.
The percentage of the population aged 65 and over is much higher in Torbay, at 23.6%, than the
national figure of 16.3% and 19.6% in the South West.
5
The table and graph in figure 2 below show the national and regional age bands and how they compare to the overall population.
Figure 2: Regional comparisons by percentage population and age band
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Total
South
England &
Torbay
West
Wales
5.1%
5.6%
6.2%
4.8%
5.2%
5.6%
5.4%
5.6%
5.8%
5.8%
6.2%
6.3%
5.1%
6.3%
6.8%
5.1%
5.8%
6.8%
4.7%
5.6%
6.6%
5.4%
6.1%
6.7%
6.8%
7.1%
7.3%
7.3%
7.4%
7.3%
6.7%
6.6%
6.4%
6.4%
6.1%
5.7%
7.8%
6.8%
6.0%
6.6%
5.6%
4.8%
5.3%
4.5%
3.9%
4.4%
3.7%
3.2%
3.4%
2.9%
2.4%
3.9%
2.9%
2.2%
131,000 5,288,900 56,075,900
All persons - Proportion comparisons
0.08
0.07
0.06
Proportion of Usual Residents
Age
Torbay
0.05
South
West
0.04
0.03
England &
Wales
0.02
0.01
0
Quinary Age Group
6
3 TORBAY CENSUS – comparisons to 2001 Census
Figure 3, below, shows Torbay 2011 Census population figures compared to the 2001 Census. Note that 2001 Census is known to
have underestimated the population which was then adjusted in the 2001 Mid-Year population estimates.
Figure 3: 2011 population figures compared top 2001 age group bands
Torbay Census population 2011 compared to 2001
12,000
Population in Thousands
9,000
6,000
Torbay 2011
Torbay 2001
3,000
0
Age Bands
Pop.
Torbay
2011
Torbay
2001
All
0‒4
5‒9
10‒14
15‒19
20‒24
25‒29
30‒34
35‒39
40‒44
45‒49
50‒54
55‒59
60‒64
65‒69
70‒74
75‒79
80‒84
85‒89
90
and
over
131,000
6,700
6,300
7,100
7,600
6,700
6,700
6,100
7,100
8,900
9,600
8,800
8,400
10,200
8,600
7,000
5,800
4,400
3,200
1,900
129,702
6,277
7,310
8,160
7,301
5,700
6,402
8,219
8,819
8,037
8,236
9,379
8,784
7,718
7,070
6,731
6,058
4,618
3,054
1,829
7
Between 2001 and 2011 Torbays population is estimated to have increased by 1%, from 129,706 in 2001 to 131,000 in 2011. Initial
analysis, figure 4 below, shows changes in the age bands are very different to changes in the South West and nationally.
Figure 4: 2011 population figures minus 2001 figures illustrating the variation by age group
2011 Census minus 2001 as % difference of overall population
50.00
40.00
% difference
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
ENGLAND
SOUTH WEST
Torbay
-10.00
-20.00
-30.00
8
2011 census
minus 2001
ENGLAND
All
0‒4
5‒9
10‒14
15‒19
20‒24
25‒29
30‒34
35‒39
40‒44
45‒49
55‒59
60‒64
65‒69
70‒74
75‒79
80‒84
85‒89
90 and
over
17,533
211,714 780,592 354,275
95,369
24,267
152,804 138,116
88,068
360,442
26,100
-21,372
-16,862
34,669
69,031
24,890
-47,099
-45,315
38,038
73,327
-7,804
15,501
101,353
58,561
10,646
-1,564
17,716
18,805
12,121
1,298
423
-1,010
-1,060
299
1,000
298
-2,119
-1,719
863
1,364
-579
-384
2,482
1,530
269
-258
-218
146
71
All
0‒4
5‒9
10‒14
15‒19
20‒24
25‒29
30‒34
35‒39
40‒44
45‒49
50‒54
55‒59
60‒64
65‒69
70‒74
75‒79
80‒84
85‒89
90 and
over
ENGLAND
7.88
13.40
-4.81
-4.59
10.14
21.76
11.69
-7.30
-8.55
12.28
24.69
0.52
7.60
32.64
16.45
4.89
1.48
13.82
21.64
27.90
SOUTH WEST
7.31
9.67
-7.27
-5.37
11.82
26.13
8.82
-13.70
-12.32
11.27
23.18
-2.18
5.04
38.96
24.52
4.73
-0.79
13.09
23.19
29.08
Torbay
1.00
6.74
-13.82
-12.99
4.10
17.54
4.65
-25.78
-19.49
10.74
16.56
-6.17
-4.37
32.16
21.64
4.00
-4.26
-4.72
4.78
3.88
SOUTH WEST
Torbay
% difference
3,873,669 392,040 -150,046 -148,198 307,586 642,415 382,140 -276,476 -331,943 425,051 768,262
50‒54
The table above shows 2001 Census population subtracted from 2011 figures for England, South West and Torbay. Where the actual
figure is a negative this shows where age bands have decreased in population between 2001 and 2011 and gives us a negative
difference or a drop in population.
As a percentage of overall population although the trends are similar, where there is an increase in individual age bands the difference
is mainly lower than both the South West and England e.g. age 0-4 7% increase in Torbay 13% increase nationally. Where there is a
decrease this is higher than South West and England in most bands e.g. age 5-9 14% decrease in Torbay, 5% nationally
9
4 Comparison to ONS Mid Year Estimates 2010
In June 2011 ONS issued a Mid-Year estimate for 2010, figure 4, see ONS Mid-Year 2010 estimates. The estimates are based on the
2001 Census, updated each year using the cohort component method with a combination of registration, survey and administrative data
sources.
Figure 5: Torbay Census 2011 comparisons to Mid-Year estimates 2010 – in thousands
(thousands)
Torbay Census
2011
ONS 2010 Mid
year estimate
Difference
All
0‒4
5‒9
10‒14
15‒19
20‒24
25‒29
30-39
40-49
50‒54
55‒59
60‒64
65‒69
70‒74
75‒79
80‒84
85‒89
90+
131.0
6.7
6.3
7.1
7.6
6.7
6.7
13.2
18.5
8.8
8.4
10.2
8.6
7.0
5.8
4.4
3.2
1.9
134.3
7.0
6.5
7.1
8.1
7.4
6.9
13.2
18.5
8.8
8.8
10.1
8.6
7.3
5.8
4.8
3.3
2.0
-3.3
-0.3
-0.2
0.0
-0.5
-0.7
-0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.4
0.1
0.0
-0.3
0.0
-0.4
-0.1
-0.1
Comparison of Torbay Census figures to the ONS mid-year estimates shows that mid-year estimates were overstated. Census 2011
estimates 3,300 less people in Torbay than the mid-year estimates. A negative difference in the table above highlights mid-year
estimates which are higher than the Torbay Census 2011 estimates, with six age bands correctly estimated, one underestimated (6064) and 10 age bands overestimated in the mid-year estimates.
10
5 Quality Assurance Pack
Part of the first release from the 2011 Census of population for England and Wales (ONS) is the
Quality Assurance Pack. This provides a snapshot of the usually resident population as at
Census Day, 27 March 2011 and outlines various comparators used in the quality assurance
process. A summary version of the information is shown below.
Inevitably within the Census some people are missed and ONS therefore uses complex
statistical techniques to adjust the census counts for those people missed by the census. This is
shown in figure 6 below which shows that 125,300 people in Torbay where included on census
questionnaires which have been processed, and have therefore been included as a person in
the census count.
ONS then performed a Census Coverage Survey (CCS), an independent voluntary survey in a
sample of 1.5% of all postcodes and then used a Coverage Assessment and Adjustment
Methodology to improve the accuracy of the results by estimating the number and
characteristics of people missed by the census.
Figure 6: Components of the census estimate of usual residents, Source: ONS Quality Assurance Pack,
2011 Census
Census Estimate for
of which:
Count of usual residents
Change due to estimation and sample
bias
Change due to overcount adjustment
Change due to bias adjustment
Change due to national adjustment
Change due to CE adjustment
Torbay
131,000
South West
5,288,900
England &
Wales
56,075,900
125,300
5,059,100
52,638,800
6,200
239,100
2,804,800
-1,200
300
200
200
-50,900
20,700
12,900
8,000
-352,000
583,000
303,400
97,900
The aim of this methodology was to identify and adjust for the number of people and
households not counted in the 2011 Census, those counted more than once, and those counted
in the wrong place. It involved a number of stages:
• the CCS records were matched with those from the 2011 Census using a combination of
automated and clerical matching
11
• the matched census and CCS data were used within a Dual System Estimation (DSE)
technique to estimate the number of people and households missed by both the census and
CCS
• the 2011 Census database was searched for duplicates and the CCS was used to estimate
the level of overcount (those counted more than once) in the census
• populations for each local authority by age and sex were then estimated, balancing over
and underestimates, using a combination of statistical regression and small area estimation
techniques, and households and people estimated to have been missed by the census were
then imputed into the census database
As a part of this quality assurance process, ONS performed a series of checks that involve
comparing census data to a range of other data sources, including administrative data, some of
these are shown in figure 7 below.
The Patient Register is the only non-ONS source used in the quality assurance to check numbers
of adults aged 16 to 64 and shows Torbay to have 140,800 records, with every age group
significantly higher than the 2011 Census count.
Coverage of the Patient Register only extends to those people who have registered with a GP.
Examples of those groups not registered with an NHS GP include sole private care users, armed
forces personnel, long-term prisoners, and patients in long stay hospitals. The register will also
include some individuals who would be excluded from the 2011 Census definition of usual
residence (individuals who intended to stay for longer than twelve months). It is not possible to
distinguish between short-term migrants (those who intend to stay for less than twelve months)
and usual residents on the register, nor is it possible to identify whether all short-term migrants
were removed from the register when they departed. Also list inflation is known to exist on the
register where individuals are no longer resident at the address at which they are on the register.
Estimated list inflation is 5 per cent on average for PCTs in England.
The School Census is collected by the Department for Education (DfE) for each local authority
(LA) in England. The School Census includes children of compulsory school age but does not
however cover children attending independent schools, pupil referral units and those who are
home schooled and those who live in other LA’s. As a result approximately 7 per cent of children
aged 5-15 are not covered.
Social Security and Revenue information covers the take up of child benefit data and pension
claimants. Other checks include Birth Registration, Higher Education Statistics, Migrant Worker
Scan and Council Tax data (as at September 2010).
12
Figure 7: Torbay Age population comparisons, Source: ONS, National Health Service info Centre, DfE, Dept Work & Pensions, HMRC
2011
Census
Counts
2011
Census
Estimates
Lower 95%
Confidence
Interval
Upper 95%
Confidence
Interval
Rolled
forward
estimates
Patient
Register
2011
School
Census
2011
Social
Security
and
Revenue
Information
2011
6,700
6,300
7,100
7,600
6,700
6,700
6,100
7,100
8,900
9,600
8,800
8,400
10,200
8,600
7,000
5,800
4,400
5,100
6,500
6,100
6,900
7,400
6,400
6,400
6,000
6,900
8,500
9,300
8,700
8,200
9,900
8,500
6,900
5,700
4,400
5,000
6,900
6,500
7,200
7,700
7,100
7,000
6,300
7,300
9,200
9,800
9,000
8,600
10,400
8,700
7,100
5,900
4,500
5,100
7,100
6,500
6,900
7,800
7,500
6,900
5,700
6,800
8,800
9,500
8,800
8,800
10,100
8,900
7,300
5,800
4,700
5,500
7,100
6,700
7,400
8,200
8,000
7,800
7,400
8,200
9,900
10,500
9,400
9,000
10,400
8,700
7,100
5,800
4,500
5,100
#N/A
6,400
6,900
6,600
6,300
7,100
85+
6,200
5,900
6,700
7,200
6,200
6,100
5,900
6,800
8,500
9,300
8,500
8,300
9,900
8,400
6,800
5,600
4,300
4,900
Total
125,300
131,000
129,300
132,600
133,400
140,800
13,300
Age
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
8,500
6,800
5,600
4,300
5,200
50,400
Comparator
Lower
Bound
Comparator
Upper
Bound
Response
Rates
6,300
6,400
6,900
7,600
7,200
6,400
5,000
6,100
8,200
9,000
8,500
8,700
9,900
8,600
6,900
5,800
4,400
4,900
7,400
6,800
7,600
8,400
8,200
8,300
8,000
8,900
10,400
11,000
9,700
9,000
10,500
9,000
7,500
5,900
4,800
5,600
93%
94%
95%
94%
92%
91%
96%
96%
95%
97%
97%
98%
97%
97%
97%
97%
98%
97%
96%
13
6 Response Rates
Torbay has a Person Response Rate of 96% (England 94%), a Household response rate of 96%
(England 95%) and a household return rate of 90% (England 93%). For Torbay response rates are
higher from age 45-49 upwards at 97/98% down to 91/92% for age 20-24 and 20-29 age band.
Rates are defined as:
Person response rate is the number of usual residents for whom individual details were provided on
a returned questionnaire divided by the estimated usually resident population.
Household response rate is the number of households (containing one or more usual residents)
who returned a household questionnaire, divided by the estimated number of households containing
usual residents.
Household return rate is the percentage of household questionnaires that were returned.
Further information on definitions can be found at Census definitions
14
7 TORBAY CENSUS – additional data
HOUSEHOLDS
The Census 2011 provides the number of households with at least one usual resident. A
household is defined as one person living alone, or a group of people (not necessarily related)
living at the same address who share cooking facilities and share a living room, sitting room or
dining area. Included in this definition is sheltered accommodation units in an establishment
where 50% or more have their own kitchens and all people living in caravans on any type of site
that is their usual residence. This does not include communal establishments e.g. hotels, B&Bs,
student accommodation, communal sheltered accommodation. This definition has been
updated since 2001 to reflect recent social changes.
Figure 8: Census 2011 Households
Number of
Households
22,063,400
2,264,600
59,000
ENGLAND
SOUTH WEST
Torbay
NON-UK RESIDENTS
The Census 2011 provides the number of non-UK short-term residents. For Torbay as a
percentage of the population this is a very small number (0.08%). A non-UK resident is anyone
born outside the UK who has stayed or intends to stay in the UK for a period of 3 months or
more but less than 12 months.
Figure 9: Census 2011 Non-UK Residents
ENGLAND
SOUTH WEST
Torbay
All non-UK
short-term
residents
187,900
11,500
100
15
8
TORBAY CENSUS - Regional Neighbours
Torbay’s growth rate of 1% is low compared to Devon Councils. Figure 10 shows that the %
difference between 2001 and 2011 census ranges from 1% growth in South Hams to 11% in Mid
Devon. (Source: Guardian, based on comparisons with 2001 estimates).
Figure 10: % difference between 2011 and 2001 census – Torbay and Devon
Area/Region
%Growth
England
South West
Torbay
Devon
East Devon
Exeter
Mid Devon
North Devon
South Hams
Teignbridge
Torridge
West Devon
7%
7%
1%
6%
5%
6%
11%
7%
1%
2%
8%
9%
Out of 348 Local Authorities 13 showed negative growth of between -4 to -1, 7 showed even
numbers (0% growth), 11 showed 1% growth including Torbay & South Hams, 317 LA’s had growth
between 2 & 26%. This puts Torbay in the bottom 9% of LA’s for population growth.
Comparisons with statistical neighbours shows growth between 0-12%, figure 11.
Figure 11: % difference between 2011 and 2001 census – Statistical Neighbours
Local authority
Blackpool
Torbay
Isle of Wight
Telford and Wrekin
Plymouth
Cornwall
Poole
Southend-on-Sea
Portsmouth
North Lincolnshire
Bournemouth
% Growth
0%
1%
4%
5%
6%
6%
7%
8%
9%
9%
12%
16
9
CONCLUSION
Torbay has seen a low population growth when compared both regionally and nationally. Mid-Year
estimates published by the ONS indicated a higher population in 2010 which is not reflected in the
first release of Census data. Comparisons of datasets held across government organizations also
indicate higher demographics, for instance the Patient Register 2011 indicates a 7% higher
population when compared to census figures.
Torbay’s population structure has remained consistent since 2001with a high proportion of older
population (50+) compared to the national figure and lower proportion of population aged 0-40.
Population growth within individual age bands is not wholly consistent with population changes
nationally or within the South West.
17